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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Dose Rate Analysis of the WCS Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

This report describes a confirmatory calculation for a proposed consolidated interim storage facility (CISF) to support the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s review of the license application submitted by the Interim Storage Partners. The scope of this report is limited to an assessment of the annual dose from direct radiation associated with Phase 1 of the Waste Control Specialists (WCS) CISF and the determination of the minimum controlled area boundary based on the 10 CFR 72.104 limit of 25 mrem annual dose to the whole body. The confirmatory dose rate calculations used the source term and shielding calculation capabilities of the SCALE 6.2.3 computer code system. The calculation method employed in the confirmatory calculations uses a detailed Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation from source to dose rate. This method differs from the two-step method used in the safety analysis report (SAR), which requires determination of the photon and neutron energy and angular distributions on the cask external surface and then the use of this surface source in a new radiation transport calculation to determine dose rate as a function of distance from the storage facility. A simulation was made using the complete site geometry (all casks present) but with only one cask containing source, and a total of 467 independent calculations were performed to obtain the dose rate maps produced by each storage cask. Basic input data and assumptions used in the SAR (e.g., cask design parameters and design basis assembly characteristics) were used in this confirmatory calculation for consistency with the SAR. Local atmospheric conditions for skyshine calculations were simulated using US standard atmosphere data, which describe average air temperature, pressure, and density as a function of altitude. The determined minimum required distances from the WCS Phase 1 CISF to a contour defined by the 25 mrem annual dose limit were approximately 623 m (0.387 miles) in the N-NE direction, 594 m (0.369 miles) in the SSW direction, and 533 m (0.331 miles) in the E-SE direction and the W-NW direction. The annual dose results of the confirmatory calculation are in relatively good agreement with the annual dose values presented in the WCS SAR. The annual dose produced by the Phase 1 CISF at the nearest site boundary, 0.75 miles away from the CISF, was estimated by this study to be approximately 6.02E-02 ± 2.0E-04 mrem, which is significantly smaller than the 25 mrem annual dose limit provided in 10 CFR 72.104. The SAR annual dose rate value for the nearest site boundary was 7.52E-2 mrem, which included 7.73E-03 mrem due to postulated leakage of the FO-, FC-, and FF-canisters. A comparison with the dose rate values reported in the SAR for 16 detector locations, D1 through D16, on the protected area boundary is also included in this report. This comparison shows that the SAR determined higher annual dose values for detectors D1 through D14 by 12% to 45% and lower annual dose values for detectors D15 and D16 by 18% and 8%, respectively, as compared with this ORNL confirmatory calculation. Sensitivity studies have been performed to support a comprehensive review of the application. In these studies, the effects on dose rate of the modeled air volume, density, and humidity were analyzed. The sensitivity calculations showed that the air volume used in the Monte Carlo simulations was adequate and that a larger air volume would not further increase the dose rate due to skyshine contributions. The sensitivity analysis showed that simulation of local atmospheric conditions is important for the accuracy of dose rate estimates at large distances from the facility. Air humidity was demonstrated to have negligible effects on dose rate values for the simulated local atmospheric conditions.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiation furnace for synchrotron dark-field x-ray microscopy experiments

We present a multi-purpose radiation furnace designed for x-ray experiments at synchrotrons. The furnace is optimized specifically for dark-field x-ray microscopy (DFXM) of crystalline materials at beamline ID06 of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility. The furnace can reach temperatures above 1200 °C with a thermal stability better than 10 °C, with heating and cooling rates up to 30 K/s. The non-contact heating design enables samples to be heated either in air or in a controlled atmosphere contained within a capillary tube. The temperature was calibrated via the thermal expansion of an α-iron grain. Temperature profiles in the y and z axes were measured by scanning a thermocouple through the focal spot of the radiation furnace. In the current configuration of the beamline, this furnace can be used for DFXM, near-field x-ray topography, bright-field x-ray nanotomography, high-resolution reciprocal space mapping, and limited powder diffraction experiments. As a first application, we present a DFXM case study on isothermal heating of a commercially pure single crystal of aluminum.

Yildirim, C. (ORCID:0000000249690685)↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave—Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022

An unprecedented heatwave impacted East Antarctica in March 2022, peaking at 39°C above climatology, the largest temperature anomaly ever recorded globally. We investigate the causes of the heatwave, the impact of climate change, and a climate model's ability in simulating such an event. The heatwave, which was skillfully forecast, resulted from a highly anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that advected an Australian airmass to East Antarctica in 4 days and produced record atmospheric heat fluxes. Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures anomalies had a minimal impact on the heatwave's amplitude. Simulations from a climate model fail to simulate such a large temperature anomaly mostly due to biases in its large-scale circulation variability, showcasing a pathway for future model improvement in simulating extreme heatwaves. The heatwave was made 2°C warmer by climate change, and end of 21st century heatwaves may be an additional 5–6°C warmer, raising the prospect of near-melting temperatures over the interior of East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Behavior of Long-Chain Hydrocarbons at High Pressures and Temperatures

Although long-chain aliphatic hydrocarbons are documented in meteorites, their origin is poorly understood. A key question is whether they are pristine or a byproduct of terrestrial alteration? Thus, to understand if these long-chain hydrocarbons are indigenous, it will be important to explore their thermodynamic and mechanical stability at conditions experienced by extraterrestrial objects during atmospheric entry and passage. Extreme pressures and temperatures experienced by meteorites are likely to alter the molecular organization of these long-chain hydrocarbons. These structural changes associated with extreme conditions are often documented via laboratory-based Raman spectroscopic measurements. So far, Raman spectroscopic measurements have investigated the effect of static compression on the aliphatic hydrocarbons. The effect of temperature on the structural changes remains poorly explored. To bridge this gap, in this study, we have explored the behavior of two aliphatic hydrocarbons at simultaneously high pressures and temperatures. We have used a resistively heated diamond anvil cell. On compression to moderate pressures, the appearance of new vibrational modes in the low-energy region confirms prior studies and is related to the bending of the linear chains. Upon heating to ~220 °C, we note that the new low-energy mode undergoes softening. The mode softening is likely due to the combination of unbending of the alkane chain and mode anharmonicity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative evaluations of subtropical westerly jet simulations over East Asia based on multiple CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs

As a salient feature of the Asian monsoon system, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) exerts significant impacts on weather and climate changes in China and even throughout East Asia. In this paper, we applied a new self-adaptive algorithm to detect the EASWJ, identify its boundaries, and then represent its characteristics by defining three indices: the intensity index, meridional displacement index, and width index. Compared to the reanalysis data, we carried out a comprehensive, objective, and quantitative EASWJ evaluation using historical experiments from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results show that the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 can simulate the characteristics of winter EASWJ well. While for the other three seasons, the MME of both phase models underestimate the 200-hPa zonal wind (U200) strength in the jet coverage area and overestimate the U200 outside the jet area, such simulation results weaken the meridional shear of the wind field. The EASWJ simulations from the CMIP5 GCMs had no consistent intensity or location characteristic tendencies, and most CMIP5 GCMs tended to simulate relatively wide-coverage jets. In contrast, most CMIP6 GCMs are inclined to simulate significantly weaker, wider, and more-northward jets. Compared to the predecessors in CMIP5, about half of CMIP6 GCMs significantly minimized the jet intensity bias, but remarkable errors were still observed in their jet location and coverage representations. Furthermore, the comparative analysis performed by classifying models based on their evaluated simulation results suggested that the simulated performance of the meridional temperature gradient was important for capturing the EASWJ characteristics. Further in-depth study of the causes of model differences is warranted to improve simulation results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Practical and thermodynamic constraints on electromicrobially accelerated CO 2 mineralization

By the end of the century, tens of gigatonnes of CO 2 will need to be removed from the atmosphere every year to maintain global temperatures. Natural weathering of ultramafic rocks and subsequent mineralization reactions can convert CO 2 into ultra-stable carbonates. Although this will draw down all excess CO 2 , it will take thousands of years. CO 2 mineralization could be accelerated by weathering ultramafic rocks with biodegradable lixiviants. We show that if these lixiviants come from cellulosic biomass, this demand could monopolize the world’s biomass supply. We demonstrate that electromicrobial production technologies (EMP) that combine renewable electricity and microbial metabolism could produce lixiviants for as little as $\$200$ to $\$400$ per tonne at solar electricity prices achievable within the decade. We demonstrate that EMP could make enough lixiviants to sequester a tonne of CO 2 for less than $\$100$. This work highlights the potential of this approach and the need for extensive R&D.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recycling of additively printed anisotropic Nd-Fe-B bonded magnets

A high potential cost-effective and environmentally friendly method has been applied for recycling anisotropic Nd-Fe-B bonded magnets. Waste additively printed Hydrogenation-Disproportionation-Desorption-Recombination (HDDR) Nd-Fe-B anisotropic bonded magnet was pulverized into composite powder containing Nd-Fe-B particles and nylon binder through cryomilling at a liquid nitrogen temperature (~77 K) under Ar inert atmosphere. Then, the cryomilled composite powder was warm compacted into a bonded magnet. Further, the magnetic particles were aligned during post-compaction annealing under a magnetic field of 30 kOe. The recycled bonded magnets have a higher density (3% enhancement), but slightly inferior magnetic properties compared to the original magnets, i.e., the magnetic remanence, coercivity and maximum energy product are reduced by 2%, 3% and 8%, respectively. The scanning electron microscopy revealed that some HDDR Nd-Fe-B powder crumbled into fine particles during cryomilling. Powder X-ray diffraction showed a small amount of Nd-oxide impurity in the cryomilled powder. The slightly deteriorated magnetic properties are ascribed to the oxidation of Nd-Fe-B particles due to formation of fresh fracture surface during cryomilling. The approach enables the direct reuse of end-of-life bonded magnets in an economical and environmentally friendly way.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of Intermediate Species in Fuel-Rich Oxidation of Ethylene, Toluene, and n -Decane

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are important precursors to the formation of soot and are also pollutant emissions from combustion devices, including internal combustion engines. To understand the formation of PAHs, the low-molecular-weight hydrocarbon chemistry leading to their formation needs to be understood. Toward this goal, fuel-rich oxidation of three different hydrocarbons, i.e., ethylene, toluene, and n-decane, has been investigated in an atmospheric pressure flow reactor at varying temperatures (1000–1350 K), equivalence ratios (φ = 3.0–12.0), and residence times of 0.25–1.5 s. The major C 1 to C 7 intermediates, such as methane, acetylene, ethylene, allene, propyne, propylene, vinylacetylene, 1,3-butadiene, cyclopentadiene, benzene, and toluene, were quantified using a gas chromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector. The experimental tendency of intermediate species formation, e.g., the dependence of temperature, equivalence ratio, and residence time, was similar in ethylene oxidation and n-decane oxidation. The concentrations of intermediate species up to C 4 were higher in ethylene/n-decane oxidation than toluene oxidation, while a nearly equal or larger amount of C5–C7 species was produced in toluene oxidation. The experimental data were compared with modeling results using a detailed chemical kinetic mechanism. The calculated data using the kinetic model were in agreement with the experimental results. Additionally, a comprehensive kinetic analysis on the reaction pathways of each species was conducted to assess the differences in the oxidation chemistry with the change in the structure of hydrocarbons. In particular, in-depth analysis of benzene formation was performed, elucidating that two benzene formation pathways were important in ethylene and n-decane oxidation: (1) H elimination of the 2,4-cyclohexadienyl radical produced from the isomerization of the 2,4-cyclopentadienylmethyl radical, and (2) dehydrogenation of cyclohexadiene produced from reactions of vinyl radical with 1,3-butadiene. In toluene oxidation, it was found that benzene was primarily produced from toluene through the replacement of the methyl group with hydrogen.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revealing Progressive Degradation of Cobalt Oxide Nanoparticles During Thermochemical Redox Cycling via Operando STEM-EELS

Metal oxides are promising materials for long-duration thermochemical energy storage. Efforts to characterize their reaction kinetics, conversion rate, and morphological evolution during thermochemical cycling have largely focused on bulk and microscale measurements. However, the design of nanostructured metal oxides could improve the reaction reversibility and kinetics, warranting the development of platforms to investigate how these materials behave at the nanoscale. Here, we demonstrate the use of correlative, time-resolved electron energy loss spectroscopy and imaging in an environmental transmission electron microscope for studying the thermochemical cyclability of cobalt oxide nanoparticles with high spatial and temporal resolution. The spectroscopic data reveal a striking decrease in reaction kinetics after the first cycle, resulting from sintering-driven nanostructural densification. Comparison between cycling in humid and dry air shows that atmospheric conditions can modulate reaction transition temperatures but have limited effects on sintering over multiple cycles, suggesting long-term durability will instead rely on synthetic and/or nanostructural modifications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of In Situ Generated High-Spin Fe(II)-N 4 Active Sites for Acidic Oxygen Reduction Reaction via Operando 57 Fe Mössbauer Spectroscopy

Iron-nitrogen-carbon (FeNC) catalysts are considered among the most promising alternative to Pt catalysts in acidic oxygen reduction reaction (ORR), yet the geometric and electronic structures of the true active site under reaction conditions have not been clearly elucidated. Herein, we synthesized a representative FeNC catalyst by pyrolyzing Fe 3+ absorbed on ZIF-8-derived N-doped carbon at a mild temperature under the H 2 /Ar atmosphere, where a formation mechanism of FeN 4 sites through a Zn-mediated Fe nanoparticle atomization process was proposed. The resulting FeNC-750 catalyst shows high acidic ORR activity with a half-wave potential of 0.838 V and a peak power density of 1 W cm -2 in proton-exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC). By using operando 57 Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy on FeNC-750, it was revealed that the pyrrolic N-coordinated high-spin Fe 2+ N 4 sites, which are in situ generated from high-spin Fe 3+ N 4 during ORR, are identified as catalytic active states. Density functional theory calculations further verified that, compared to the pyridinic N-coordinated low-spin Fe 2+ N 4 , the pyrrolic N-coordinated high-spin Fe 2+ exhibits optimized adsorption energy for reaction intermediates, thereby lowering the energy barrier of the rate-determining step (RDS) and facilitating OH* desorption. In conclusion, this work provides both experimental and theoretical evidence of the true active site in the FeNC during acidic ORR, offering significant insights for the rational design of high-performance materials for acidic fuel cells.

FeNC catalyst↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inelastic Neutron Scattering Observation of Plasma-Promoted Nitrogen Reduction Intermediates on Ni/γ-Al 2 O 3

Plasma-assisted catalysis is an emerging technology for the atmospheric pressure and low bulk gas temperature synthesis of ammonia from molecular nitrogen and hydrogen. Direct evidence for plasma-induced surface reaction intermediates relevant to ammonia production, including surface hydrides and NH x (x = 1, 2, 3) species, has remained elusive. In this work, we report inelastic neutron scattering (INS) observations of alumina-supported Ni particles after treatment with N 2 and H 2 plasmas. INS experiments reveal the presence of NH x species and hydrides on Ni sites after exposure to sequential N 2 and H 2 plasma treatments. By separating exposure, we exclude the presence of plasma-phase reactions and demonstrate that these species are generated through plasma-facilitated surface reactions. Computed synthetic INS spectra of NH 3 , NH 2 and NH adsorbates on Ni support the experimental assignments of surface intermediates. The results directly implicate plasma stimulation of dinitrogen in generation of surface-bound nitrogen that participates in further hydrogenation reactions driven either thermally or with H 2 plasma.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Facilitating Hydrogen Dissociation over Dilute Nanoporous Ti–Cu Catalysts

The dissociation of H 2 is an essential elementary step in many industrial chemical transformations, typically requiring precious metals. Here, we report a hierarchical nanoporous Cu catalyst doped with small amounts of Ti (npTiCu) that increases the rate of H 2 –D 2 exchange by approximately one order of magnitude compared to the undoped nanoporous Cu (npCu) catalyst. The promotional effect of Ti was measured via steady-state H 2 –D 2 exchange reaction experiments under atmospheric pressure flow conditions in the temperature range of 300–573 K. Pretreatment with flowing H 2 is required for stable catalytic performance, and two temperatures, 523 and 673 K, were investigated. The experimentally determined H 2 –D 2 exchange rate is 5–7 times greater for npTiCu vs the undoped Cu material under optimized pretreatment and reaction temperatures. The H 2 pretreatment leads to full reduction of Cu oxide and partial reduction of surface Ti oxide species present in the as-prepared catalyst as demonstrated using in situ ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The apparent activation energies and pre-exponential factors measured for H 2 –D 2 exchange are substantially different for Ti-doped vs undoped npCu catalysts. Density functional theory calculations suggest that isolated, metallic Ti atoms on the surface of the Cu host can act as the active surface sites for hydrogen recombination. Furthermore, the increase in the rate of exchange above that of pure Cu is caused primarily by a shift in the rate-determining step from dissociative adsorption on Cu to H/D atom recombination on Ti-doped Cu, with the corresponding decrease in activation entropy that it produces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Antarctic Sea Ice Expansion, Driven by Internal Variability, in the Presence of Increasing Atmospheric CO2

A number of physically-based hypotheses have been proposed to explain the surprising expansion of Antarctic sea ice area (SIA) over the satellite era (1979 to 2015). Here, we use a fully-coupled state-of-the-art global climate model to show that internal variability alone can produce such multidecadal periods of Antarctic SIA expansion even as atmospheric CO2 increases at observed rates and the planet warms. When our model is started from a relatively warm Southern Ocean state, Antarctic SIA sometimes (in one of three ensemble members) expands over multidecadal time scales at a rate comparable to that over the satellite era. SIA expansion occurs concurrently with rising atmospheric CO2 and warming global surface temperatures, and SIA trends by region and sector resemble those over the satellite era. Our results suggest that internal variability, particularly on long time scales over the Southern Ocean, may suffice to explain Antarctic SIA expansion over the satellite era.

Singh, Hansi AK↗
DOE OSTI2023

Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

Abstract A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS < 3.3 K. The distinct seasonality in extratropical LCF in climate models is ascribed to their different prevailing cloud regimes governing the extratropical LCF variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Laser-driven ramp-compression experiments on the national ignition facility

This report details the analyses and related uncertainties in measuring longitudinal-stress–density paths in indirect laser-driven ramp equation-of-state (EOS) experiments. Experiments were conducted at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) located at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The NIF can deliver up to 2 MJ of laser energy over 30 ns and provide the necessary laser power and control to ramp compress materials to TPa pressures (1 TPa = 10 × 10 6 atmospheres). These data provide low-temperature solid-state EOS data relevant to the extreme conditions found in the deep interiors of giant planets. In these experiments, multi-stepped samples with thicknesses in the range of 40–120 µm experience an initial shock compression followed by a time-dependent ramp compression to peak pressure. Interface velocity measurements from each thickness combine to place a constraint on the Lagrangian sound speed as a function of particle velocity, which in turn allows for the determination of a continuous stress–density path to high levels of compressibility. In this report, we present a detailed description of the experimental techniques and measurement uncertainties and describe how these uncertainties combine to place a final uncertainty in both stress and density. Here, we address the effects of time-dependent deformation and the sensitivity of ramp EOS techniques to the onset of phase transformations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Across‐model spread and shrinking in predicting peatland carbon dynamics under global change

Abstract Large across‐model spread in simulating land carbon (C) dynamics has been ubiquitously demonstrated in model intercomparison projects (MIPs), and became a major impediment in advancing climate change prediction. Thus, it is imperative to identify underlying sources of the spread. Here, we used a novel matrix approach to analytically pin down the sources of across‐model spread in transient peatland C dynamics in response to a factorial combination of two atmospheric CO 2 levels and five temperature levels. We developed a matrix‐based MIP by converting the C cycle module of eight land models (i.e., TEM, CENTURY4, DALEC2, TECO, FBDC, CASA, CLM4.5 and ORCHIDEE) into eight matrix models. While the model average of ecosystem C storage was comparable to the measurement, the simulation differed largely among models, mainly due to inter‐model difference in baseline C residence time. Models generally overestimated net ecosystem production (NEP), with a large spread that was mainly attributed to inter‐model difference in environmental scalar. Based on the sources of spreads identified, we sequentially standardized model parameters to shrink simulated ecosystem C storage and NEP to almost none. Models generally captured the observed negative response of NEP to warming, but differed largely in the magnitude of response, due to differences in baseline C residence time and temperature sensitivity of decomposition. While there was a lack of response of NEP to elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) concentrations in the measurements, simulated NEP responded positively to eCO 2 concentrations in most models, due to the positive responses of simulated net primary production. Our study used one case study in Minnesota peatland to demonstrate that the sources of across‐model spreads in simulating transient C dynamics can be precisely traced to model structures and parameters, regardless of their complexity, given the protocol that all the matrix models were driven by the same gross primary production and environmental variables.

Hou, Enqing↗