Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Capacity estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32

Analysis of Electrical Grid Capacity in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas for Urban Air Mobility

A wide range of challenges must be overcome to conduct Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations at scale with electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft as envisioned. This paper documents an analysis of one potential infrastructure challenge for UAM: available electrical grid power capacity. The success of UAM depends on the availability of electricity, which will be increasingly impacted by the proliferation of ground electric vehicles (EVs) over time. Under the worst-case assumption that each U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) can only access and utilize the electricity generated by power plants within its boundaries, it is estimated that the maximum number of UAM aircraft that can charge simultaneously in the 25 most populous MSAs will decrease by about 61% from about 129,000 in the year 2021 to about 51,000 in the year 2050, due to the projected increase in ground EVs. Also, it is estimated that the number of these MSAs that may lack any available electrical grid power capacity for UAM operations will increase from zero MSAs in 2021 to eleven MSAs in 2050—including three MSAs that prospective UAM operators have announced as target markets (Los Angeles, Miami, and Orlando)—unless electricity demand for other purposes is reduced.

electrical grid↗

Analysis of Electrical Grid Capacity in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas for Urban Air Mobility

A wide range of challenges must be overcome to conduct Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations at scale with electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft as envisioned. This paper documents an analysis of one potential infrastructure challenge for UAM: available electrical grid power capacity. The success of UAM depends on the availability of electricity, which will be increasingly impacted by the proliferation of ground electric vehicles (EVs) over time. Under the worst-case assumption that each U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) can only access and utilize the electricity generated by power plants within its boundaries, it is estimated that the maximum number of UAM aircraft that can charge simultaneously in the 25 most populous MSAs will decrease by about 61% from about 129,000 in the year 2021 to about 51,000 in the year 2050, due to the projected increase in ground EVs. Also, it is estimated that the number of these MSAs that may lack any available electrical grid power capacity for UAM operations will increase from zero MSAs in 2021 to eleven MSAs in 2050—including three MSAs that prospective UAM operators have announced as target markets (Los Angeles, Miami, and Orlando)—unless electricity demand for other purposes is reduced.

electrical grid↗

Wake Turbulence: An Obstacle to Increased Air Traffic Capacity

Wingtip vortices were first described by British aerodynamicist F.W. Lanchester in 1907. A product of lift on a finite-span wing, these counterrotating masses of air trail behind an aircraft, gradually diffusing while convecting downward and moving about under mutual induction and the influence of wind and stratification. Should a smaller aircraft happen to be following the first aircraft, it could be buffeted and even flipped if it flew into the vortex, with dangerous consequences. Given the amount of air traffic in 1907, the wake vortex hazard was not initially much of a concern. The demand for air transportation continues to increase, and it is estimated that demand could double or even triple by 2025. One factor in the capacity of the air transportation system is wake turbulence and the consequent separation distances that must be maintained between aircraft to ensure safety.

Source record↗

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. (1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. (2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. (3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today's most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV's monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. (4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. (5) Accounting for DPV's location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. (6) Estimating DPV's impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. (7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. (8) Considering changes in DPV's value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. (9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. 1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. 2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. 3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today’s most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV’s monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. 4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. 5) Accounting for DPV’s location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. 6) Estimating DPV’s impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. 7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. 8) Considering changes in DPV’s value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. 9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Marine ecosystem appropriation in the Indo-Pacific: a case study of the live reef fish food trade

Our ecological footprint analyses of coral reef fish fisheries and, in particular, the live reef fish food trade (FT), indicate many countries' current consumption exceeds estimated sustainable per capita global, regional and local coral reef production levels. Hong Kong appropriates 25% of SE Asia's annual reef fish production of 135 260-286 560 tonnes (t) through its FT demand, exceeding regional biocapacity by 8.3 times; reef fish fisheries demand out-paces sustainable production in the Indo-Pacific and SE Asia by 2.5 and 6 times. In contrast, most Pacific islands live within their own reef fisheries means with local demand at < 20% of total capacity in Oceania. The FT annually requisitions up to 40% of SE Asia's estimated reef fish and virtually all of its estimated grouper yields. Our results underscore the unsustainable nature of the FT and the urgent need for regional management and conservation of coral reef fisheries in the Indo-Pacific.

Fishes↗

Sorbent Material Property Requirements for On-Board Hydrogen Storage for Automotive Fuel Cell Systems.

Material properties required for on-board hydrogen storage in cryogenic sorbents for use with automotive polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cell systems are discussed. Models are formulated for physical, thermodynamic and transport properties, and for the dynamics of H-2 refueling and discharge from a sorbent bed. A conceptual storage configuration with in-bed heat exchanger tubes, a Type-3 containment vessel, vacuum insulation and requisite balance-of-plant components is developed to determine the peak excess sorption capacity and differential enthalpy of adsorption for 5.5 wt% system gravimetric capacity and 55% well-to-tank (WTT) efficiency. The analysis also determines the bulk density to which the material must be compacted for the storage system to reach 40 g.L-1 volumetric capacity. Thermal transport properties and heat transfer enhancement methods are analyzed to estimate the material thermal conductivity needed to achieve 1.5 kg.min(-1) H-2 refueling rate. Operating temperatures and pressures are determined for 55% WTT efficiency and 95% usable H-2. Needs for further improvements in material properties are analyzed that would allow reduction of storage pressure to 50 bar from 100 bar, elevation of storage temperature to 175-200 K from 150 K, and increase of WTT efficiency to 57.5% or higher.

Ahluwalia, R. K.↗

Entropy production of doubly stochastic quantum channels

We study the entropy increase of quantum systems evolving under primitive, doubly stochastic Markovian noise and thus converging to the maximally mixed state. This entropy increase can be quantified by a logarithmic-Sobolev constant of the Liouvillian generating the noise. We prove a universal lower bound on this constant that stays invariant under taking tensor-powers. Our methods involve a new comparison method to relate logarithmic-Sobolev constants of different Liouvillians and a technique to compute logarithmic-Sobolev inequalities of Liouvillians with eigenvectors forming a projective representation of a finite abelian group. Our bounds improve upon similar results established before and as an application we prove an upper bound on continuous-time quantum capacities. In the last part of this work we study entropy production estimates of discrete-time doubly stochastic quantum channels by extending the framework of discrete-time logarithmic-Sobolev inequalities to the quantum case.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

IEA Wind TCP Task 26: Impacts of Wind Turbine Technology on the System Value of Wind in Europe

This report analyzes the impact of different land-based wind turbine designs on grid integration and related system value and cost. This topic has been studied in a number of previous publications, showing the potential benefits of wind turbine technologies that feature higher capacity factors. Building on the existing literature, this study aims to quantify the effects of different land-based wind turbine designs in the context of a projection of the European power system to 2030. This study contributes with insights on the quantitative effects in a likely European market setup, taking into account the effect of existing infrastructure on both existing conventional and renewable generation capacities. Furthermore, the market effects are put into perspective by comparing cost estimates for deploying different types of turbine design. Although the study focuses on Europe, similar considerations and results can be applied to other power systems with high wind penetration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Potential Impact of Offshore Wind Energy on a Future Power System in the U.S. Northeast

This study aims to understand and quantify the potential impact of offshore wind on a future electricity system in the U.S. Northeast. In this analysis, a detailed representation of the Northeast power system is adopted, using a generation portfolio for 2024 paired with offshore wind nameplate capacities of 0 gigawatts (GW), 2 GW, and 7 GW. The analysis identifies points of offshore wind interconnection in the ISO-New England and New York Independent System Operator control areas and uses hourly wind profiles from the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. Hourly simulations of the 2024 power system operations show an ability to accommodate the prescribed offshore wind capacities by adapting the system's generation dispatch. Curtailment levels of offshore wind range between 4% and 5%. Offshore wind generation displaces primarily natural-gas combined-cycle generation; however, requires increased flexibility from combined cycles through more frequent start-ups. The number of hours with transmission congestion increases because of offshore wind injection, with varying impact on a subregional level. Offshore wind's capacity credit was found to be 14.5%-28.3% and is lower than estimated in other large-scale power system studies, in part because this study considered a different weather year and a power system representation with higher shares of solar PV and onshore wind. The reliability contribution of resources is a topic area identified for more research and collaboration. The 7-GW scenario shows a reduction in locational marginal price of 11%, with production cost savings of up to 18% compared to the 0-GW scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Thin-Foil Heating with Intense Relativistic Electron Beams

Thin-metal foils are used in intense relativistic beam experiments for various purposes. In planning these experiments and analyzing the results it is often desirable to have an estimate of the temperature reached during the beam pulse. This can be deduced from an estimate of the energy deposited by the beam, and the specific heat capacity of the material, which depends on the temperature. The methodology for doing this is explained herein, and a metric for foil survivability under heating by an intense relativistic electron beam is suggested.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Gravity Well Commercial Economics Assessment: Potential Revenue and Cost: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

In the Gravity Well Revenue Study, we evaluate the potential revenue from energy storage using historical energy-only electricity prices, forward-looking projections of hourly electricity prices, and actual reported revenue. This analysis examines the impact of storage duration and round-trip efficiency, as well as the location of the storage, on storage revenue within the current and projected U.S. power system. We also investigated the impact of round-trip efficiency on storage revenue. We found that the relationship between storage revenue and round-trip efficiency is nonlinear. The value of improved round-trip efficiency declines as round-trip efficiency increases. In the Gravity Well Future Cost Study, we applied learning curves to predict the future cost trajectory of Gravity Wells (GrWs). Two types of analysis were implemented. The first was a bottom-up analysis that used historical learning rates for cost components, such as motors and gearboxes, and cost categories (e.g., engineering and design, etc.) to determine the learning-by-doing based single-factor learning curve. The single factor learning curve expresses the relationship between the cost of GrW and the number of units deployed (or the cumulative capacity). In the second analysis, we predicted future GrW costs via a top-down approach. This approach accounts for historical cost trends in other renewable energy and storage technologies, which have similarities with GrWs. Using a multifactor learning curve that accounts for both intrinsic (cumulative capacity) and extrinsic (the elasticity in the price of steel) factors, we estimated the future cost of GrWs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Demand Response Across the Continental US for 2006

This project estimates hourly demand response availability across the continental U.S. for the year 2006. The resulting data set is disaggregated by balancing authority area, end use, and grid application. End uses include 14 categories across residential, commercial, industrial and municipal sectors. Grid applications include the 5 bulk power system services of regulation reserve, flexibility (or ramping) reserve, contingency reserve, energy, and capacity. Based on the physical requirements of the various bulk power system services and the estimated end use electric load shapes, potential availability of demand response is calculated and provided as a series of csv files.

Array↗

Methodology to Implement a Microgrid in a University Campus

This paper presents the method we followed to design a microgrid at a university campus based on available resources. Due to introduction of renewable resources to produce energy, a methodology that allows design a microgrid in a university campus is very useful. Hence, we present a series of steps that must be carried out to estimate the resource to be used, the installation, area needed, and the capacity of the systems needed are also described. In addition, the models of the distributed resources that constitutes the microgrid are presented and explained. To validate the proposed methodology, simulations were performed using Opal-RT-LAb. As a test scenario we selected the Mayagüez campus of the University of Puerto Rico where we conducted analysis of the available resource and capacity of the systems is needed to satisfy demand of critical loads, considering a predetermined number of days of austerity. Our study results in determination of dimensions, cost and effectiveness of the microgrid. Simulations results also show that the proposed microgrid satisfy demand with the same reliability, or better, than the traditional electrical network. Additionally, the best options for this purpose are photovoltaic, batteries, and combined heat and power, if the technological advances and availability of resources to the date for Puerto Rico are considered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Energy and remote sensing applications

The nature of the U.S. energy problem is examined. Based upon the best available estimates, it appears that demand for OPEC oil will exceed OPEC productive capacity in the early to mid-eighties. The upward pressure on world oil prices resulting from this supply/demand gap could have serious international consequences, both financial and in terms of foreign policy implementation. National Energy Plan objectives in response to this situation are discussed. Major strategies for achieving these objectives include a conversion of industry and utilities from oil and gas to coal and other abundant fuels. Remote sensing from aircraft and spacecraft could make significant contributions to the solution of energy problems in a number of ways, related to exploration of energy-related resources, the efficiency and safety of exploitation procedures, power plant siting, environmental monitoring and assessment, and the transportation infrastructure.

Summers, R. A.↗

Venous Gas Embolism: Review to Quantify a Safe Volume of Air in Intravenous Fluids Bags for Spaceflight Applications

INTRODUCTION: The ability to create intravenous fluids (IVF) in-situ from the potable water supply of a spaceflight vehicle or habitat is a desired capability for an exploration medical system. In order to define an acceptable volume of air in IVF bags, an understanding of the volume of venous gas embolism as it relates to negative outcomes is needed. The purpose of this study is to review the literature to determine if there is a known volume of gas that contributes to mortality and/or morbidity that could be used to define requirements for rapid IVF infusion in microgravity. METHODS: A literature review was conducted of the PubMed database using the syntax: (Venous) AND (Gas OR Air) AND (Embolism) AND (Morbidity) AND (Mortality) AND (Volume) as well as manual review of references from relevant articles. 151 articles were screened excluding partial text and pediatric articles. Studies were reviewed for identification of volume of venous gas embolism associated with morbidity and/or mortality, which identified 27 articles. RESULTS: Reviewed literature included animal studies, case reports, and review articles. A high variation of proposed volumes contributing to mortality was reported. The limited human data values ranged from 20 ml to 200 ml of infused air with mortality estimated to be 48 – 80%. No studies evaluated human morbidity in any capacity. DISCUSSION: The lack of consensus on the safe volume of infused air has potential ramifications for IVF use in spaceflight as current technologies to create IVF from potable water may introduce air in IVF bags. While current microgravity infusion protocols call for the use of inline air removal filters, commercially available options have flow rate limitations that preclude rapid infusion in a resuscitation scenario. Such filters may be used in parallel to increase flow rate, but the time required to set up such a system may exclude its use during a medical emergency. Additionally, these consumable filters drive up the overall mass and volume of the medical system. Identification of a safe volume of air in IVF would allow for guidelines for the in-situ production of IVF in future spaceflight vehicles/habitats.

Christopher R Woodard↗

Supporting the Li-Ion Battery Supply Chain via PEV Battery Reuse

The electric vehicle market is growing rapidly and there is significant need for lithium ion batteries and their materials. There is growing concern about the supply chain issues of lithium ion batteries in the US as most of the materials and components come from overseas. The concern about supply chain would be even more of a concern as more lithium ion systems will be installed in the renewable grid. By 2025, it is estimated that 3.5 million used PEVs may be retiring worldwide with commutative capacity of around 150 GWh. The question is what the is best way to deal with these batteries: recycle them right away for re-introduction of valuable materials into the battery supply chain or reused and then recycle them. These batteries usually have between 70-80% of their original capacity and studies have shown second use of these batteries are technically and environmentally – the question has been the economic viability. Most of LIBs has been going into the growing electric vehicle market. Rather than using new LIBs in the future grid, the second-life batteries is a significant resource and could alleviate supply chain issues.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Potential Role of Concentrating Solar Power within the Context of DOE's 2030 Solar Cost Targets

For solar electricity generating technologies to be cost competitive at a large scale with conventionally generated electricity, cost reductions are needed for both concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. In 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established solar cost targets that corresponded to reducing CSP and PV prices by approximately 75% in order to achieve a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $0.06 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for both utility-scale PV and high-capacity factor CSP-TES systems in 2020. Utility-scale PV achieved its 2020 cost target in 2017, and recent estimates for the LCOE of CSP-TES with a molten-salt power tower system are approximately $0.10/kWh for projects that are expected to come online in 2020, which represents a substantial reduction since 2010 - when the LCOE for CSP-TES was around $0.21/kWh. To continue the momentum for cost reductions in solar technologies, DOE recently established cost targets for 2030 that would make solar one of the lowest-cost sources of new electricity in the United States. For CSP-based systems, the new targets correspond to an LCOE in 2030 of $0.05/kWh for a dispatchable, high-capacity factor CSP-TES plant configuration. This aggressive target would have been unimaginable a decade ago. However, building on the previously described reduction in CSP-TES costs over the past decade, recent announcements suggest the next phase of projects will continue this downward trend through lower installation costs, attractive financing, longer-duration PPAs, and the ability to capitalize on the value that the flexibility of storage brings CSP. This presentation summarizes a recent report that evaluates the potential impacts of simultaneously achieving the 2030 cost targets for PV and CSP-TES, and it includes a detailed evaluation of the role that CSP-TES could play in realizing those impacts. The scenarios in this analysis are designed to isolate and assess the potential impacts of achieving DOE's 2030 cost targets for CSP-TES and PV, and they do not reflect the potential benefits or system impacts associated with success in other DOE research programs. The low-cost solar scenarios include DOE's 2030 solar cost targets--which are represented via a roughly 50% reduction in LCOE by 2030 (from current levels) with additional cost reductions thereafter representing technology learning and/or improvements that could result from innovation - coupled with a variety of market, technology, and demand assumptions. With these assumptions, the evolution of the contiguous U.S. electricity system is evaluated with NREL's Renewable Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which was specifically designed to represent the temporal and locational value of renewable generation technologies in the U.S. power system. ReEDS relies on system-wide least-cost optimization to estimate the type and location of future generation and transmission capacity. In addition, it accounts for the locational and temporal variations in variable renewable technologies, including the need for new transmission, curtailment, dynamic capacity value, and the need to hold operating reserves to account for the uncertainty and variability of these technologies. This presentation summarizes the key findings that arise from a detailed evaluation of the impacts of achieving DOE's 2030 cost targets for CSP-TES and PV systems, noting again the inherent challenges associated with modeling future scenarios of the large, complex system electricity system in the contiguous United States within the context of various market features.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗