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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32

A Projected Network Model of Online Disinformation Cascades

Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Temperature Field Reconstruction of Surfaces Heated Through Radiative Heat Transfer Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Microreactors could play a crucial role in decarbonizing our energy portfolio. However, their development and implementation come with specific challenges, particularly regarding cost. Due to their compact size and the harsh operational environment, collecting real-time data on reactor operation can be challenging. Many probe designs are unable to withstand extreme conditions (e.g., temperature, radiation) in the reactor. In this context, using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can pave the way for developing a nonintrusive approach that relies solely on ex-core sensors. A well-trained physics-informed CNN can reconstruct the distribution of a given physical quantity over a domain using only a few sensors, allowing us to reconstruct the desired field distribution even in a limited space or complex geometries where a large array of sensors is impractical. In this work, we present the initial steps toward developing a real-time tool for monitoring the thermal behavior of nuclear reactor pressure vessels. Based on an experimental setup, a computational model using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (moose) framework was built, where the Ray Tracing and Heat Conduction modules were used to evaluate the temperature distribution over a convex metal surface heated through radiative heat transfer. This metal surface represents a section of a heated nuclear reactor vessel wall. The model also accounts for solid mechanics physics through the moose Solid Mechanics module. In situ experimental data, acquired from a Texas A&M facility, were used to validate the computational model. Part of the data generated by the moose model was used to train the convolutional neural network to reconstruct the vessel wall's outer surface temperature. The CNN generalization was then compared against the experimental and computational data.

Aldeia Machado, Luiz Carlos↗

Physics-informed heterogeneous graph neural networks for DC blocker placement

The threat of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) to the reliable operation of the bulk energy system has spurred the development of effective strategies for mitigating their impacts. One such approach involves placing transformer neutral blocking devices, which interrupt the path of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) to limit their impact. The high cost of these devices and the sparsity of transformers that experience high GICs during GMD events, however, calls for a sparse placement strategy that involves high computational cost. To address this challenge, we developed a physics-informed heterogeneous graph neural network (PIHGNN) for solving the graph-based dc-blocker placement problem. Our approach combines a heterogeneous graph neural network (HGNN) with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to capture the diverse types of nodes and edges in ac/dc networks and incorporates the physical laws of the power grid. We train the PIHGNN model using a surrogate power flow model and validate it using case studies. Results demonstrate that PIHGNN can effectively and efficiently support the deployment of GIC dc-current blockers, ensuring the continued supply of electricity to meet societal demands. Furthermore, our approach has the potential to contribute to the development of more reliable and resilient power grids capable of withstanding the growing threat that GMDs pose.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Anisotropic Dynamics and Mechanics of Macromolecular Crystals Containing Lattice-Patterned Polymer Networks

The mechanical and functional properties of many crystalline materials depend on cooperative changes in lattice arrangements in response to external perturbations. However, the flexibility and adaptiveness of crystalline materials are limited. Additionally, the bottom-up, molecular-level design of crystals with desired dynamic and mechanical properties at the macroscopic level remains a considerable challenge. To address these challenges, we had previously integrated mesoporous, cubic ferritin crystals with hydrogel networks, resulting in hybrid materials (polymer integrated crystals or PIX) which could undergo dramatic structural changes while maintaining crystalline periodicity and display efficient self-healing. Here, the dynamics and mechanics of these ferritin-PIX were devoid of directionality, which is an important attribute of many molecular and macroscopic materials/devices. In this study, we report that such directionality can be achieved through the use of ferritin crystals with anisotropic symmetries (rhombohedral or trigonal), which enable the templated formation of patterned hydrogel networks in crystallo. The resulting PIX expand and contract anisotropically without losing crystallinity, undergo prompt bending motions in response to stimuli, and self-heal efficiently, capturing some of the essential features of sophisticated biological devices like skeletal muscles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Genomics-enabled analysis of specialized metabolism in bioenergy crops: Current progress and challenges

Plants produce a staggering diversity of specialized small molecule metabolites that play vital roles in mediating environmental interactions and stress adaptation. This chemical diversity derives from dynamic biosynthetic pathway networks that are often species-specific and operate under tight spatiotemporal and environmental control. A growing divide between demand and environmental challenges in food and bioenergy crop production have intensified research on these complex metabolite networks and their contribution to crop fitness. High-throughput omics technologies provide access to ever-increasing data resources for investigating plant metabolism. However, the efficiency of using such system-wide data to decode the gene and enzyme functions controlling specialized metabolism has remained limited; due largely to the recalcitrance of many plants to genetic approaches and the lack of ‘user-friendly’ biochemical tools for studying the diverse enzyme classes involved in specialized metabolism. With emphasis on terpenoid metabolism in the bioenergy crop switchgrass as an example, this review aims to illustrate current advances and challenges in the application of DNA synthesis and synthetic biology tools for accelerating the functional discovery of genes, enzymes and pathways in plant specialized metabolism. These technologies have accelerated knowledge development on the biosynthesis and physiological roles of diverse metabolite networks across many ecologically and economically important plant species and can provide resources for application to precision breeding and natural product metabolic engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

This article is composed of a commentary about the state of Integrated, Coordinated, Open, and Networked (ICON) principles in Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology (VGP), and discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. VGP encompasses a broad field that addresses volcanic, magmatic, hydrothermal, geomicrobial systems; process investigations that span the physical, geochemical and biological realms, including planetary geology; and one that is extensively supported by state-of-the-art research facilities. We suggest that an open, inclusive, collaborative and evolving model of an international coordinated network is critical to answering the most pressing challenges in VGP. In this commentary piece, we begin to discuss the elements of, challenges to, and path forward in developing such a model. For this team, ICON means collaboration, equitable access to data for the entire scientific community, and forging of partnerships that potentially contribute to more innovative ways of coordinating and sharing research. It also means bringing more equity to science, by implementing effective measures which consider access to funding, analytical equipment, resources, and mentors. More importantly, ICON to us means having important conversations around what we value in the advancement of science, perhaps exploring outside the idea of meritocracy and evaluating what individual traits can contribute to science outside what has traditionally been considered the norm.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Physics-informed neural networks for heterogeneous poroelastic media

This study presents a novel physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for modeling poroelasticity in heterogeneous media with material interfaces. The approach introduces a composite neural network (CoNN) where separate neural networks predict displacement and pressure variables for each material. While sharing identical activation functions, these networks are independently trained for all other parameters. To address challenges posed by heterogeneous material interfaces, the CoNN is integrated with the Interface-PINNs (I-PINNs) framework (Sarma et al., Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng. 429: 117135, 2024), allowing different activation functions across material interfaces. Further, this ensures accurate approximation of discontinuous solution fields and gradients. Performance and accuracy of this combined architecture were evaluated against the conventional PINNs approach, a single neural network (SNN) architecture, and the eXtended PINNs (XPINNs) framework through two one-dimensional benchmark examples with discontinuous material properties. The results show that the proposed CoNN with I-PINNs architecture achieves an RMSE that is two orders of magnitude better than the conventional PINNs approach and is at least 40 times faster than the SNN framework. Compared to XPINNs, the proposed method achieves an RMSE at least one order of magnitude better and is 40% faster.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Scattering-based structural inversion of soft materials via Kolmogorov–Arnold networks

Small-angle scattering techniques are indispensable tools for probing the structure of soft materials. However, traditional analytical models often face limitations in structural inversion for complex systems, primarily due to the absence of closed-form expressions of scattering functions. To address these challenges, we present a machine learning framework based on the Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (KAN) for directly extracting real-space structural information from scattering spectra in reciprocal space. This model-independent, data-driven approach provides a versatile solution for analyzing intricate configurations in soft matter. By applying the KAN to lyotropic lamellar phases and colloidal suspensions—two representative soft matter systems—we demonstrate its ability to accurately and efficiently resolve structural collectivity and complexity. Here, our findings highlight the transformative potential of machine learning in enhancing the quantitative analysis of soft materials, paving the way for robust structural inversion across diverse systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Stochastic Charging Station Deployment Model for Electrified Taxi Fleets in Coupled Urban Transportation and Power Distribution Networks

Metropolitansworldwide are increasingly adopting electric taxis (ET) to address concerns about transportation-related emissions. However, the widespread deployment of electric taxis presents challenges in terms of increased electricity demand and changing demand profiles. This transition impacts both the urban transportation network (TN) and the electricity power distribution network (PDN), highlighting the interdependence between these two systems. Here, in this paper, we propose a two-stage stochastic programming planning model that aims to optimize both the TN and PDN, enabling efficient deployment of charging stations and grid upgrades. Our model seeks to strike a balance between meeting ET drivers' charging preferences, minimizing the costs associated with infrastructure deployment and grid expansion, and harmonizing the coordination between the TN and PDN. Additionally, we explore the potential benefits of utilizing an autonomous ET fleet to enhance overall system performance.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Spike-and-Slab Shrinkage Priors for Structurally Sparse Bayesian Neural Networks

Network complexity and computational efficiency have become increasingly significant aspects of deep learning. Sparse deep learning addresses these challenges by recovering a sparse representation of the underlying target function by reducing heavily overparameterized deep neural networks. Specifically, deep neural architectures compressed via structured sparsity (e.g., node sparsity) provide low-latency inference, higher data throughput, and reduced energy consumption. In this article, we explore two well-established shrinkage techniques, Lasso and Horseshoe, for model compression in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). To this end, we propose structurally sparse BNNs, which systematically prune excessive nodes with the following: 1) spike-and-slab group Lasso (SS-GL) and 2) SS group Horseshoe (SS-GHS) priors, and develop computationally tractable variational inference, including continuous relaxation of Bernoulli variables. We establish the contraction rates of the variational posterior of our proposed models as a function of the network topology, layerwise node cardinalities, and bounds on the network weights. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of our models compared with the baseline models in prediction accuracy, model compression, and inference latency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Blockchain-Based Man-in-the-Middle (MITM) Attack Detection for Photovoltaic Systems

Cybersecurity of photovoltaic (PV) systems entails a much larger scope than just encryption and firewall of communications. For instance, integrity of data in transit between inverters and a cloud server can be compromised by authorized third-party, devices, and internal network within security perimeter (i.e., man-in-the-middle (MITM) attack). To address this challenge, this paper proposes a blockchain-based MITM attack detection method for a PV system. A breakthrough method includes screening network data, network intrusion detection, and hash comparison of in-transit data using distributed ledgers. Furthermore, the proposed method is implemented in Internet-of-Thing (IoT) security modules as clients of a blockchain network and validated by experiments.

blockchain↗

Runway Sign Classifier: A DAL C Certifiable Machine Learning System

In recent years, the remarkable progress of Machine Learning (ML) technologies within the domain of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems has presented unprecedented opportunities for the aviation industry, paving the way for further advancements in automation, including the potential for single pilot or fully autonomous operation of large commercial airplanes. However, ML technology faces major incompatibilities with existing airborne certification standards, such as ML model traceability and explainability issues or the inadequacy of traditional coverage metrics. Certification of ML-based airborne systems using current standards is problematic due to these challenges. This paper presents a case study of an airborne system utilizing a Deep Neural Network (DNN) for airport sign detection and classification. Building upon our previous work, which demonstrates compliance with Design Assurance Level (DAL) ”D”, we upgrade the system to meet the more stringent requirements of Design Assurance Level ”C”. To achieve DAL C, we employ an established architectural mitigation technique involving two redundant and dissimilar Deep Neural Networks. The application of novel ML-specific data management techniques further enhances this approach. This work is intended to illustrate how the certification challenges of ML-based systems can be addressed for medium criticality airborne applications.

Flight Software↗

Polyhedral Relaxations for Optimal Pump Scheduling of Potable Water Distribution Networks

The classic pump scheduling or optimal water flow (OWF) problem for water distribution networks (WDNs) minimizes the cost of power consumption for a given WDN over a fixed time horizon. In its exact form, the OWF is a computationally challenging mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP). It is complicated by nonlinear equality constraints that model network physics, discrete variables that model operational controls, and intertemporal constraints that model changes to storage devices. To address the computational challenges of the OWF, this paper develops tight polyhedral relaxations of the original MINLP, derives novel valid inequalities (or cuts) using duality theory, and implements novel optimization-based bound tightening and cut generation procedures. The efficacy of each new method is rigorously evaluated by measuring empirical improvements in OWF primal and dual bounds over 45 literature instances. The evaluation suggests that our relaxation improvements, model strengthening techniques, and a thoughtfully selected polyhedral relaxation partitioning scheme can substantially improve OWF primal and dual bounds, especially when compared with similar relaxation-based techniques that do not leverage these new methods.

bound tightening↗

Spatial modeling algorithms for reactions and transport in biological cells

Biological cells rely on precise spatiotemporal coordination of biochemical reactions to control their functions. Such cell signaling networks have been a common focus for mathematical models, but they remain challenging to simulate, particularly in realistic cell geometries. Here we present Spatial Modeling Algorithms for Reactions and Transport (SMART), a software package that takes in high-level user specifications about cell signaling networks and then assembles and solves the associated mathematical systems. SMART uses state-of-the-art finite element analysis, via the FEniCS Project software, to efficiently and accurately resolve cell signaling events over discretized cellular and subcellular geometries. We demonstrate its application to several different biological systems, including yes-associated protein (YAP)/PDZ-binding motif (TAZ) mechanotransduction, calcium signaling in neurons and cardiomyocytes, and ATP generation in mitochondria. Throughout, we utilize experimentally derived realistic cellular geometries represented by well-conditioned tetrahedral meshes. These scenarios demonstrate the applicability, flexibility, accuracy and efficiency of SMART across a range of temporal and spatial scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Structure-preserving neural networks for the regularized entropy-based closure of a linear, kinetic, radiative transport equation

The main challenge of large-scale numerical simulation of radiation transport is the high memory and computation time requirements of discretization methods for kinetic equations. In this work, we derive and investigate a neural network-based approximation to the entropy-based closure method to accurately compute the solution of the multi-dimensional moment system with a low memory footprint and competitive computational time. We extend methods developed for the standard entropy-based closure to the regularized entropy-based closures. The main idea is to interpret structure-preserving neural network approximations of the regularized entropy-based closure as a two-stage approximation to the original entropy-based closure. We conduct a numerical analysis of this approximation and investigate optimal parameter choices. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the method has a much lower memory footprint than traditional methods with competitive computation times and simulation accuracy. The code and all trained networks are provided on GitHub.

entropy closure↗

Graph neural networks for detecting anomalies in scientific workflows

Identifying and addressing anomalies in complex, distributed systems can be challenging for reliable execution of scientific workflows. We model these workflows as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the nodes and edges of the DAGs represent jobs and their dependencies, respectively. We develop graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn patterns in the DAGs and to detect anomalies at the node (job) and graph (workflow) levels. We investigate workflow-specific GNN models that are trained on a particular workflow and workflow-agnostic GNN models that are trained across the workflows. Our GNN models, which incorporate both individual job features and topological information from the workflow, show improved accuracy and efficiency compared to conventional learning methods for detecting anomalies. While joint trained with multiple scientific workflows, our GNN models reached an accuracy more than 80% for workflow level and 75% for job level anomalies. In addition, we illustrate the importance of hyperparameter tuning method in our study that can significantly improve the metric(s) measure of evaluating the GNN models. Finally, we integrate explainable GNN methods to provide insights on job features in the workflow that cause an anomaly.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗