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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
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NASA NTRS1980

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Hameed, S.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

Tropospheric ozone and methane might increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test this possible climatic impact, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically-averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4 and NOx. The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NOx and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could enhance global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Cess, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate feedback mechanisms

As a consequence of fossil fuel burning, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from 314 ppm in 1958, when detailed measurements of this quantity began, to a present value of 335 ppm; and it is estimated that during the next century, the CO2 concentration will double relative to its assumed preindustrial value of 290 ppm. Since CO2 is an infrared-active gas, increases in its atmospheric concentration would lead to a larger infrared opacity for the atmospheric which, by normal logic, would result in a warmer Earth. A number of modeling endeavors suggest a 2 to 4 C increase in global mean surface temperature with doubling of the CO2 concentration. But such estimates of CO2-induced warming are highly uncertain because of a lack of knowledge of climate feedback mechanisms. Interactive influences upon the solar and infrared opacities of the Earth-atmosphere system can either amplify or damp a climate-forcing mechanism such as increasing CO2. Climate feedback mechanisms discussed include climate sensitivity, cloudiness-radiation feedback, climate change predictions, and interactive atmospheric chemistry.

Cess, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Climate in Earth history

Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

Berger, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate studies - Models I and II

Climate modeling based on numerical solution of the fundamental equations for atmospheric structure and motion permits the explicit modeling of physical processes in the climate system and the natural treatment of interactions and feedbacks among parts of the system. The main difficulty concerning this approach is related to the computational requirements. The present investigation is concerned with the development of a grid-point model which is programmed so that both horizontal and vertical resolutions can easily be changed. Attention is given to a description of Model I, the performance of sensitivity experiments by varying parameters, the definition of an improved Model II, and a study of the dependence of climate simulation on resolution with Model II. It is shown that the major features of global climate can be simulated reasonably well with a horizontal resolution as coarse as 1000 km. Such a resolution allows the possibility of long-range climate studies with moderate computer resources.

Russel, G.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The faint young sun-climate paradox - Crustal influences

The various mechanisms which have been proposed to compensate for the climatic effects of a 30 percent increase in the solar constant during the past 4.5 billion years are examined. Mechanisms besides the greenhouse effect could have provided significant compensation during the second half of this period. It is proposed that the development of continents during the past 2.5 billion years caused a secular evolution of the atmosphere-ocean heat transport system. As a result, past climates were less susceptible to complete freeze-over. The lower albedo of water would be another factor in this effect insofar as the early earth had smaller land masses. A complete or nearly complete freeze-over may have occurred as past glaciations were widespread. Climate models then suggest that the earth would have remained frozen through the present epoch and into a distant future. It is suggested that volcanic influences could allow a passage from the frozen branch onto the unfrozen branch of climate models should conditions on earth be suitable for that climate change. A broad equatorial belt of volcanic ash is one scenario which would allow a transfer from the frozen earth state into the unfrozen one.

Schatten, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. I - Results of decadal integrations

Anomalies in ocean surface temperature have been identified as possible causes of variations in the climate of particular seasons or as a source of interannual climatic variability, and attempts have been made to forecast seasonal climate by using ocean temperatures as predictor variables. However, the seasonal atmospheric response to ocean temperature anomalies has not yet been systematically investigated with nonlinear models. The present investigation is concerned with ten-year integrations involving a model of intermediate complexity, the Held-Suarez climate model. The calculations have been performed to investigate the changes in seasonal climate which result from a fixed anomaly imposed on a seasonally varying, global ocean temperature field. Part I of the paper provides a report on the results of these decadal integrations. Attention is given to model properties, the experimental design, and the anomaly experiments.

Phillips, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Hoffert, M. I.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Theory of optimal weighting of data to detect climatic change

A search for climatic change predicted by climate models can easily yield unconvincing results because of 'climatic noise,' the inherent, unpredictable variability of time-average atmospheric data. A weighted average of data that maximizes the probability of detecting predicted climatic change is presented. To obtain the optimal weights, an estimate of the covariance matrix of the data from a prior data set is needed. This introduces additional sampling error into the method. This is presently taken into account. A form of the weighted average is found whose probability distribution is independent of the true (but unknown) covariance statistics of the data and of the climate model prediction.

Bell, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The role of earth radiation budget studies in climate and general circulation research

The use of earth radiation budget (ERB) data for climate and general circulation research is studied. ERB measurements obtained in the 1960's and 1970's have provided data on planetary brightness, planetary global energy balances, the greenhouse effect, solar insolation, meridional heat transport by oceans and atmospheres, regional forcing, climate feedback processes, and the computation of albedo values in low latitudes. The role of clouds in governing climate, in influencing the general circulation, and in determining the sensitivity of climate to external perturbations needs to be researched; a procedure for analyzing the ERB data, which will address these problems, is described. The approach involves estimating the clear-sky fluxes from the high spatial resolution scanner measurement and defining a cloud radiative forcing; the global average of the sum of the solar and long-wave cloud forcing yields the net radiative effect of clouds on the climate.

Ramanathan, V.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in the Antarctic: Climatic cooling precedes biotic crisis

Stable isotopic investigations were conducted on calcareous microfossils across two deep sea Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary sequences on Maud Rise, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. The boundary is taken at the level of massive extinctions in calcareous planktonic microfossils, and coincides with a sharp lithologic change from pure calcareous ooze to calcareous ooze with a large volcanic clay component. The uppermost Maestrichtian is marked by a long-term decrease in delta value of 0 to 18 which spans most of the lower and middle A. mayaroensis Zone and represents a warming trend which culminated in surface water temperatures of about 16 C. At approximately 3 meters below the K-T boundary this warming trend terminates abruptly and benthic and planktonic isotopic records exhibit a rapid increase in delta value of 0 to 18 that continues up to the K-T boundary. The trend towards cooler surface water temperatures stops abruptly at the K-T boundary and delta value of 0 to 18 values remain relatively stable through the Paleocene. Comparison of the Antarctic sequence with the previously documented deep sea records in the South Atlantic reveal shifts of similar magnitude in the latest Maestrichtian. It is indicated that the Southern Ocean underwent the most significant, and apparently permanent, climatic change. The latest Cretaceous oxygen isotopic shift recorded at Maud Rise and other deep sea sites is similar in magnitude to large positive delta valve of 0 to 18 shifts in the middle Eocene, at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and in the middle Miocene that marked large scale climatic transitions which ultimately lead to cryospheric development of the Antarctic. The climatic shift at the end of the Cretaceous represents one of the most significant climatic transitions recorded in the latest Phanerozoic and had a profound effect on global climate as well as oceanic circulation.

Stott, Lowell D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models

Understanding the cause of differences among general circulation model projections of carbon dioxide-induced climatic change is a necessary step toward improving the models. An intercomparison of 14 atmospheric general circulation models, for which sea surface temperature perturbations were used as a surrogate climate change, showed that there was a roughly threefold variation in global climate sensitivity. Most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depictions of cloud-climate feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as climatic predictors.

Cess, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Investigation of biogeophysical feedback on the African climate using a two-dimensional model

A numerical scheme is specifically designed to develop a time-dependent climate model to ensure the conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and water vapor, in order to study the biogeophysical feedback for the climate of Africa. A vegetation layer is incorporated in the present two-dimensional climate model. Using the coupled climate-vegetation model, two tests were performed involving the removal and expansion of the Sahara Desert. Results show that variations in the surface conditions produce a significant feedback to the climate system. It is noted that the simulation responses to the temperature and zonal wind in the case of an expanded desert agree with the climatological data for African dry years. Perturbed simulations have also been performed by changing the albedo only, without allowing the variation in the vegetation layer. It is shown that the variation in latent heat release is significant and is related to changes in the vegetation cover. As a result, precipitation and cloud cover are reduced.

Xue, Yongkang↗
NASA NTRS1990

Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.

Cess, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Comparison of Solar and Other Influences on Long-term Climate

Examples are shown of climate variability, and unforced climate fluctuations are discussed, as evidenced in both model simulations and observations. Then the author compares different global climate forcings, a comparison which by itself has significant implications. Finally, the author discusses a new climate simulation for the 1980s and 1990s which incorporates the principal known global climate forcings. The results indicate a likelihood of rapid global warming in the early 1990s.

Hansen, James E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Historical evidence for a connection between volcanic eruptions and climate change

The times of historical volcanic aerosol clouds were compared with changes in atmospheric temperatures on regional, hemispheric, and global scales. These involve either a direct comparison of individual significant eruption years with temperature records, or a comparison of eruption years with composited temperature records for several years before and after chosen sets of eruptions. Some studies have challenged the connection between individual eruptions and climate change. Mass and Portman (1989) recently suggested that the volcanic signal was present, but smaller than previously thought. In a study designed to test the idea that eruptions could cause small changes in climate, Hansen and other (1978) chose one of the best monitored eruptions at the time, the 1963 eruption of Agung volcano on the island of Bali. Using a simple radiation-balance model, in which an aerosol cloud in the tropics was simulated, this basic pattern of temperature change in the tropics and subtropics was reproduced. There may be natural limits to the atmospheric effects of any volcanic eruption. Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in eruption clouds were proposed. Model results suggest that aerosol microphysical processes of condensation and coagulation produce larger aerosols as the SO2 injection rate is increased. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on regional temperatures where the effects of volcanic aerosol clouds can be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns, especially changes in mid-latitudes where meridional circulation patterns may develop. Such climatic perturbations can be detected in proxy evidence such as decreases in tree-ring widths and frost damage rings in climatically sensitive parts of the world, changes in treelines, weather anomalies such as unusually cold summers, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures.

Rampino, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Increased ocean heat transports and warmer climate

The impact of an increased ocean heat transport on climate is investigated in the framework of the GISS GMC model described by Hansen et al. (1983), using two scenarios: one starting from warmer polar temperatures/no sea ice and the other from the current ocean conditions. A 20-percent increase in cross-equatorial heat transport was sufficient to melt all sea ice; it resulted in a climate that was 2 C warmer for the global average, with values some 20-deg warmer at high altitudes and 1-deg warmer near the equator. It is suggested that the hydrological and dynamical changes associated with this different climate regime may be self-sustaining and, as such, would account for the high-latitude warmth of climates in the Mesozoic and Tertiary periods and the decadenal-scale climate fluctuations during the Holocene.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions: Lessons from Earth and Mars

Though variations in orbital and rotational parameters of the Earth and Mars are widely recognized as plausible sources of significant climatic variation on 10(exp 3) to 10(exp 8) yr timescales, many aspects of the connection between orbital, rotational, and climatic variations remain poorly understood. In general, the orbital histories are very well known, the rotational histories (especially for Mars) are very poorly known. A brief review is given of recent progress in computing orbital and rotational secular variations, and in connecting them to climatic change. The emphasis is on highlighting those areas that limit the present understanding. It is obvious that mass redistributions associated with climatic change (glaciation) are a source of crustal deformation and geodynamic change on the Earth, and may have played similar roles on Mars. It is much less appreciated, that rates, phases, and amplitudes of deformation of the deep interior of the planet can influence climate. The mantle and core, if decoupled, would precess at different rates, and even with plausible coupling strengths, some degree of differential precession is possible.

Bills, Bruce G.↗