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DOE OSTI2021

Constraining Mornings and Evenings on Distant Worlds: A new Semianalytical Approach and Prospects with Transmission Spectroscopy

The technique of transmission spectroscopy—the variation of a planetary radius with wavelength due to opacity sources in the planet’s terminator region—has been one of the most successful in the characterization of exoplanet atmospheres to date, providing key insights into the composition and structure of these distant worlds. A common assumption made when using this technique, however, is that the variations are the same in the entire terminator region. In reality, the morning and evening terminators might have distinct temperature, pressure, and thus compositional profiles due to the inherent 3D nature of the planet, which would, in turn, give rise to different spectra on each side of it. Constraining those might be fundamental for our understanding of not only the weather patterns in these distant worlds but also the planetary formation signatures that might only be possible to extract once these features are well understood. Motivated by this physical picture, in this work, we perform a detailed study of the observational prospects of detecting this effect. We present an open-source semianalytical framework with which this information can be extracted directly from transit light curves and perform a detailed study of the prospects of detecting the effect with current missions, such as TESS, and upcoming ones, such as JWST. Our results show that these missions show great promise for the detection of this effect. Transmission spectroscopy studies with JWST, in particular, could provide spectra of each of the limbs, allowing us to convey 3D information previously accessible only via phase curves.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

DATA-CONSTRAINED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS IN A GLOBAL MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS MODEL

We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux-rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME events are simulated self-consistently with high fidelity and forecasting capability by constraining initial flux rope parameters with observational data from GONG, SOHO /LASCO, and STEREO /COR. We automate this process so that minimum manual intervention is required in specifying the CME initial state. With the newly developed data-driven Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson–Low configuration, we present a method to derive Gibson–Low flux rope parameters through a handful of observational quantities so that the modeled CMEs can propagate with the desired CME speeds near the Sun. A test result with CMEs launched with different Carrington rotation magnetograms is shown. Our study shows a promising result for using the first-principles-based MHD global model as a forecasting tool, which is capable of predicting the CME direction of propagation, arrival time, and ICME magnetic field at 1 au (see the companion paper by Jin et al. 2016a).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Constraining Relativistic Bow Shock Properties in Rotation-powered Millisecond Pulsar Binaries

Multiwavelength follow-up of unidentified Fermi sources has vastly expanded the number of known galactic-field “black widow” and “redback” millisecond pulsar binaries. Focusing on their rotation-powered state, we interpret the radio to X-ray phenomenology in a consistent framework. We advocate the existence of two distinct modes differing in their intrabinary shock orientation, distinguished by the phase centering of the double-peaked X-ray orbital modulation originating from mildly relativistic Doppler boosting. By constructing a geometric model for radio eclipses, we constrain the shock geometry as functions of binary inclination and shock standoff R {sub 0}. We develop synthetic X-ray synchrotron orbital light curves and explore the model parameter space allowed by radio eclipse constraints applied on archetypal systems B1957+20 and J1023+0038. For B1957+20, from radio eclipses the standoff is R {sub 0} ∼ 0.15–0.3 fraction of binary separation from the companion center, depending on the orbit inclination. Constructed X-ray light curves for B1957+20 using these values are qualitatively consistent with those observed, and we find occultation of the shock by the companion as a minor influence, demanding significant Doppler factors to yield double peaks. For J1023+0038, radio eclipses imply R {sub 0} ≲ 0.4, while X-ray light curves suggest 0.1 ≲ R {sub 0} ≲ 0.3 (from the pulsar). Degeneracies in the model parameter space encourage further development to include transport considerations. Generically, the spatial variation along the shock of the underlying electron power-law index should yield energy dependence in the shape of light curves, motivating future X-ray phase-resolved spectroscopic studies to probe the unknown physics of pulsar winds and relativistic shock acceleration therein.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Constraining Parameters in Pulsar Models of Repeating FRB 121102 with High-energy Follow-up Observations

Recently, a precise (sub-arcsecond) localization of the repeating fast radio burst (FRB) 121102 led to the discovery of persistent radio and optical counterparts, the identification of a host dwarf galaxy at a redshift of z = 0.193, and several campaigns of searches for higher-frequency counterparts, which gave only upper limits on the emission flux. Although the origin of FRBs remains unknown, most of the existing theoretical models are associated with pulsars, or more specifically, magnetars. In this paper, we explore persistent high-energy emission from a rapidly rotating highly magnetized pulsar associated with FRB 121102 if internal gradual magnetic dissipation occurs in the pulsar wind. We find that the efficiency of converting the spin-down luminosity to the high-energy (e.g., X-ray) luminosity is generally much smaller than unity, even for a millisecond magnetar. This provides an explanation for the non-detection of high-energy counterparts to FRB 121102. We further constrain the spin period and surface magnetic field strength of the pulsar with the current high-energy observations. In addition, we compare our results with the constraints given by the other methods in previous works and expect to apply our new method to some other open issues in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Properties of the Intergalactic Magnetic Field Constrained by Gamma-Ray Observations of Gamma-Ray Bursts

The magnetic field in intergalactic space gives important information about magnetogenesis in the early universe. The properties of this field can be probed by searching for radiation of secondary e {sup +} e {sup −} pairs created by TeV photons that produce GeV range radiation by Compton-scattering cosmic microwave background photons. The arrival times of the GeV “echo” photons depend strongly on the magnetic field strength and coherence length. A Monte Carlo code that accurately treats pair creation is developed to simulate the spectrum and time-dependence of the echo radiation. The extrapolation of the spectrum of powerful gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) like GRB 130427A to TeV energies is used to demonstrate how the intergalactic magnetic field can be constrained if it falls in the 10{sup −21}–10{sup −17} G range for a 1 Mpc coherence length.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Constraining the Dust Opacity Law in Three Small and Isolated Molecular Clouds

Density profiles of isolated cores derived from thermal dust continuum emission rely on models of dust properties, such as mass opacity, that are poorly constrained. With complementary measures from near-infrared extinction maps, we can assess the reliability of commonly used dust models. In this work, we compare Herschel -derived maps of the optical depth with equivalent maps derived from CFHT WIRCAM near-infrared observations for three isolated cores: CB 68, L 429, and L 1552. We assess the dust opacities provided from four models: OH1a, OH5a, Orm1, and Orm4. Although the consistency of the models differs between the three sources, the results suggest that the optical properties of dust in the envelopes of the cores are best described by either silicate and bare graphite grains (e.g., Orm1) or carbonaceous grains with some coagulation and either thin or no ice mantles (e.g., OH5a). None of the models, however, individually produced the most consistent optical depth maps for every source. The results suggest that either the dust in the cores is not well-described by any one dust property model, the application of the dust models cannot be extended beyond the very center of the cores, or more complex SED fitting functions are necessary.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Constraining the Evolution of the Proton Distribution Function in the Heliotail

We use Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) measurements of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) to constrain the proton (mostly pickup ion, PUI) distribution in the heliotail. In our previous study, we solved the Parker transport equation and found that the velocity diffusion coefficient $D(v)$ for PUIs is approximately $D(v)$ ~ 1.1 × 10 -8 km 2 s -3 ($v/v_0$) 1.3 , assuming the initial proton distribution processed by the termination shock (TS), $f_{p,0}$, is a kappa distribution with kappa index $ₖ_{p,0}$ = 1.63. In this study, we test different forms for $f_{p,0}$. We find that if $f_{p,0}$ is kappa-distributed and $D(v)$ = $D_0(v/v_0)^{1.3}$, any kappa index in the range 1.5 < $κ_{p,0}$ < 10 is consistent with IBEX data if $D_0 ~$ 0.8–1.3 × 10 -8 km 2 s -3 . While the case where $D(v)$ ∝ $v^{1.3}$ yields ENA fluxes that appear to best reproduce IBEX data for any $κ_{p,0}$, it is possible for $D(v)$ to scale close to $~v^{2/3}$ or $~v^2$ within our uncertainties by changing $D_0$. We also show that an upstream PUI filled-shell distribution that is heated by a quasi-stationary TS, generating a downstream filled-shell with large cutoff speed, yields an excess of ENAs > 2 keV compared to IBEX. However, using a fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulation to process a PUI filled-shell across the TS yields ENA spectra consistent with IBEX , reinforcing the significance of self-consistent, preferential PUI heating and diffusion at the TS. Interestingly, an upstream PUI distribution inferred from the particle-in-cell simulation to reproduce Voyager 2 observations of the nose-ward TS is inconsistent with IBEX observations from the heliotail, suggesting differences in the upstream PUI distribution or TS properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Don’t Blink: Constraining the Circumstellar Environment of the Interacting Type Ia Supernova 2015cp

Despite their cosmological utility, the progenitors of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are still unknown, with many efforts focused on whether accretion from a nondegenerate companion can grow a carbon-oxygen white dwarf to near the Chandrasekhar mass. The association of SNe Ia resembling SN 1991T ("91T-like") with circumstellar interaction may be evidence for this "single-degenerate" channel. However, the observed circumstellar medium (CSM) in these interacting systems is unlike a stellar wind - of particular interest, it is sometimes detached from the stellar surface, residing at ~10 16 cm. A Hubble Space Telescope (HST) program to discover detached CSM around 91T-like SNe Ia successfully discovered interaction nearly two years after explosion in SN 2015cp (Graham et al. 2018). Here, we present radio and X-ray follow-up observations of SN 2015cp and analyze them in the framework of Harris et al. (2016) to limit the properties of a constant-density CSM shell in this system. Assuming the HST detection took place shortly after the shock crossed the CSM, we constrain the total CSM mass in this system to be <0.5 M ⊙ . This limit is comparable to the CSM mass of supernova PTF11kx, but does not rule out lower masses predicted for recurrent novae. Lastly, from lessons learned modeling PTF11kx and SN 2015cp, we suggest a strategy for future observations of these events to increase the sample of known interacting SNe Ia.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Early Ultraviolet Observations of Type IIn Supernovae Constrain the Asphericity of Their Circumstellar Material

Here we present a survey of the early evolution of 12 Type IIn supernovae (SNe IIn) at ultraviolet and visible light wavelengths. We use this survey to constrain the geometry of the circumstellar material (CSM) surrounding SN IIn explosions, which may shed light on their progenitor diversity. In order to distinguish between aspherical and spherical CSM, we estimate the blackbody radius temporal evolution of the SNe IIn of our sample, following the method introduced by Soumagnac et al. We find that higher-luminosity objects tend to show evidence for aspherical CSM. Depending on whether this correlation is due to physical reasons or to some selection bias, we derive a lower limit between 35% and 66% for the fraction of SNe IIn showing evidence for aspherical CSM. This result suggests that asphericity of the CSM surrounding SNe IIn is common - consistent with data from resolved images of stars undergoing considerable mass loss. It should be taken into account for more realistic modeling of these events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraining Cosmic Microwave Background Temperature Evolution With Sunyaev–Zel’Dovich Galaxy Clusters from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope

The Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ) effect introduces a specific distortion of the blackbody spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation when it scatters off hot gas in clusters of galaxies. The frequency dependence of the distortion is only independent of the cluster redshift when the evolution of the CMB radiation is adiabatic. Here, using 370 clusters within the redshift range 0.07 ≲ z ≲ 1.4 from the largest SZ-selected cluster sample to date from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, we provide new constraints on the deviation of CMB temperature evolution from the standard model $\alpha ={0.017}_{-0.032}^{+0.029}$, where $T(z)={T}_{0}{\left(1+z\right)}^{1-\alpha }$. This result is consistent with no deviation from the standard adiabatic model. Combining it with previous, independent data sets we obtain a joint constraint of α = –0.001 ± 0.012. Attributing deviation from adiabaticity to the decay of dark energy, this result constrains its effective equation of state ${w}_{\mathrm{eff}}=-{0.998}_{-0.010}^{+0.008}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Accurate Modeling of Galaxy Clustering on Small Scales: Constraining the Galaxy-halo Connection with Optimal Statistics

Applying halo models to analyze the small-scale clustering of galaxies is a proven method for characterizing the connection between galaxies and their host halos. Such works are often plagued by systematic errors or limited to clustering statistics that can be predicted analytically. In this work, we employ a numerical mock-based modeling procedure to examine the clustering of Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7 galaxies. We apply a standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) model to dark matter only simulations with a ΛCDM cosmology. To constrain the theoreStical models, we utilize a combination of galaxy number density and selected scales of the projected correlation function, redshift-space correlation function, group multiplicity function, average group velocity dispersion, mark correlation function, and counts-in-cells statistics. We design an algorithm to choose an optimal combination of measurements that yields tight and accurate constraints on our model parameters. Compared to previous work using fewer clustering statistics, we find a significant improvement in the constraints on all parameters of our halo model for two different luminosity-threshold galaxy samples. Most interestingly, we obtain unprecedented high-precision constraints on the scatter in the relationship between galaxy luminosity and halo mass. However, our best-fit model results in significant tension (>4σ) for both samples, indicating the need to add second-order features to the standard HOD model. To guarantee the robustness of these results, we perform an extensive analysis of the systematic and statistical errors in our modeling procedure, including a first of its kind study of the sensitivity of our constraints to changes in the halo mass function due to baryonic physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the β-decay Properties of Neutron-rich Exotic Pm, Sm, Eu, and Gd Isotopes to Constrain the Nucleosynthesis Yields in the Rare-earth Region

Abstract The β -delayed neutron-emission probabilities of 28 exotic neutron-rich isotopes of Pm, Sm, Eu, and Gd were measured for the first time at RIKEN Nishina Center using the Advanced Implantation Detector Array (AIDA) and the BRIKEN neutron detector array. The existing β -decay half-life ( T 1/2 ) database was significantly increased toward more neutron-rich isotopes, and uncertainties for previously measured values were decreased. The new data not only constrain the theoretical predictions of half-lives and β -delayed neutron-emission probabilities, but also allow for probing the mechanisms of formation of the high-mass wing of the rare-earth peak located at A ≈ 160 in the r -process abundance distribution through astrophysical reaction network calculations. An uncertainty quantification of the calculated abundance patterns with the new data shows a reduction of the uncertainty in the rare-earth peak region. The newly introduced variance-based sensitivity analysis method offers valuable insight into the influence of important nuclear physics inputs on the calculated abundance patterns. The analysis has identified the half-lives of 168 Sm and of several gadolinium isotopes as some of the key variables among the current experimental data to understand the remaining abundance uncertainty at A = 167–172.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining High-energy Neutrino Emission from Supernovae with IceCube

Core-collapse supernovae are a promising potential high-energy neutrino source class. We test for correlation between seven years of IceCube neutrino data and a catalog containing more than 1000 core-collapse supernovae of types IIn and IIP and a sample of stripped-envelope supernovae. We search both for neutrino emission from individual supernovae as well as for combined emission from the whole supernova sample, through a stacking analysis. No significant spatial or temporal correlation of neutrinos with the cataloged supernovae was found. All scenarios were tested against the background expectation and together yield an overall p-value of 93%; therefore, they show consistency with the background only. The derived upper limits on the total energy emitted in neutrinos are 1.7 × 10 48 erg for stripped-envelope supernovae, 2.8 × 10 48 erg for type IIP, and 1.3 × 10 49 erg for type IIn SNe, the latter disfavoring models with optimistic assumptions for neutrino production in interacting supernovae. We conclude that stripped-envelope supernovae and supernovae of type IIn do not contribute more than 14.6% and 33.9%, respectively, to the diffuse neutrino flux in the energy range of about [ 10 3 –10 5 ] GeV, assuming that the neutrino energy spectrum follows a power-law with an index of –2.5. Under the same assumption, we can only constrain the contribution of type IIP SNe to no more than 59.9%. Thus, core-collapse supernovae of types IIn and stripped-envelope supernovae can both be ruled out as the dominant source of the diffuse neutrino flux under the given assumptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining the Dense Matter Equation of State with New NICER Mass–Radius Measurements and New Chiral Effective Field Theory Inputs

Pulse profile modeling of X-ray data from the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer is now enabling precision inference of neutron star mass and radius. Combined with nuclear physics constraints from chiral effective field theory (χEFT), and masses and tidal deformabilities inferred from gravitational-wave detections of binary neutron star mergers, this has led to a steady improvement in our understanding of the dense matter equation of state (EOS). Here, we consider the impact of several new results: the radius measurement for the 1.42 M ⊙ pulsar PSR J0437−4715 presented by Choudhury et al., updates to the masses and radii of PSR J0740+6620 and PSR J0030+0451, and new χEFT results for neutron star matter up to 1.5 times nuclear saturation density. Using two different high-density EOS extensions—a piecewise-polytropic (PP) model and a model based on the speed of sound in a neutron star (CS)—we find the radius of a 1.4 M ⊙ (2.0 M ⊙ ) neutron star to be constrained to the 95% credible ranges ${12.28}_{-0.76}^{+0.50}$ km (${12.33}_{-1.34}^{+0.70}$ km) for the PP model and ${12.01}_{-0.75}^{+0.56}$ km (${11.55}_{-1.09}^{+0.94}$ km) for the CS model. The maximum neutron star mass is predicted to be ${2.15}_{-0.16}^{+0.14}$M ⊙ and ${2.08}_{-0.16}^{+0.28}$M ⊙ for the PP and CS models, respectively. We explore the sensitivity of our results to different orders and different densities up to which χEFT is used, and show how the astrophysical observations provide constraints for the pressure at intermediate densities. Moreover, we investigate the difference R 2.0 − R 1.4 of the radius of 2 M ⊙ and 1.4 M ⊙ neutron stars within our EOS inference.

gravitational wave sources↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining non-standard neutrino interactions with neutral current events at long-baseline oscillation experiments

We explore, for the first time, neutral-current events at long-baseline experiments to constrain vector and axial-vector neutrino non-standard interactions (NSI) with quarks. We leverage the flavor dependence of NSIs to perform an oscillation analysis in the neutral- current channel. We first introduce a framework to parametrize the effect of NSI on the cross section. Then, as an example, we analyze NOvA neutral-current data which provides significantly improved constraints on the axial-vector NSI parameters $ {\varepsilon}_{\mu \mu}^A $,$ {\varepsilon}_{\tau \tau}^A $ and $ {\varepsilon}_{e\mu}^A $. This is highly complementary to constraints from SNO data, which, differently from long-baseline neutral current data, is not sensitive to isospin conserving NSIs $ {\varepsilon}_u^A $ = $ {\varepsilon}_d^A $. Additionally, we disfavor large values of the diagonal vectorial NSI $ {\varepsilon}_{\mu \mu}^{VV} $ and $ {\varepsilon}_{\tau \tau}^V $ which originate from the LMA-Dark solution. We also highlight the complementarity between NSI searches at oscillation experiments using charged current and neutral current channels.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

A high-resolution and observationally constrained OMI NO 2 satellite retrieval

Here, this work presents a new high-resolution NO 2 dataset derived from the NASA Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO 2 version 3.0 retrieval that can be used to estimate surface-level concentrations. The standard NASA product uses NO 2 vertical profile shape factors from a 1.25° × 1° (~110 km × 110 km) resolution Global Model Initiative (GMI) model simulation to calculate air mass factors, a critical value used to determine observed tropospheric NO 2 vertical columns. To better estimate vertical profile shape factors, we use a high-resolution (1.33 km × 1.33 km) Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulation constrained by in situ aircraft observations to recalculate tropospheric air mass factors and tropospheric NO 2 vertical columns during summertime in the eastern US. In this new product, OMI NO 2 tropospheric columns increase by up to 160% in city centers and decrease by 20–50 % in the rural areas outside of urban areas when compared to the operational NASA product. Our new product shows much better agreement with the Pandora NO 2 and Airborne Compact Atmospheric Mapper (ACAM) NO 2 spectrometer measurements acquired during the DISCOVER-AQ Maryland field campaign. Furthermore, the correlation between our satellite product and EPA NO 2 monitors in urban areas has improved dramatically: r 2 = 0.60 in the new product vs. r 2 = 0.39 in the operational product, signifying that this new product is a better indicator of surface concentrations than the operational product. Our work emphasizes the need to use both high-resolution and high-fidelity models in order to recalculate satellite data in areas with large spatial heterogeneities in NO x emissions. Although the current work is focused on the eastern US, the methodology developed in this work can be applied to other world regions to produce high-quality region-specific NO 2 satellite retrievals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Constraining nucleation, condensation, and chemistry in oxidation flow reactors using size-distribution measurements and aerosol microphysical modeling

Oxidation flow reactors (OFRs) allow the concentration of a given atmospheric oxidant to be increased beyond ambient levels in order to study secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation and aging over varying periods of equivalent aging by that oxidant. Previous studies have used these reactors to determine the bulk OA mass and chemical evolution. To our knowledge, no OFR study has focused on the interpretation of the evolving aerosol size distributions. In this study, we use size-distribution measurements of the OFR and an aerosol microphysics model to learn about size-dependent processes in the OFR. Specifically, we use OFR exposures between 0.09 and 0.9 equivalent days of OH aging from the 2011 BEACHON-RoMBAS and GoAmazon2014/5 field campaigns. We use simulations in the TOMAS (TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional) microphysics box model to constrain the following parameters in the OFR: (1) the rate constant of gas-phase functionalization reactions of organic compounds with OH, (2) the rate constant of gas-phase fragmentation reactions of organic compounds with OH, (3) the reactive uptake coefficient for heterogeneous fragmentation reactions with OH, (4) the nucleation rate constants for three different nucleation schemes, and (5) an effective accommodation coefficient that accounts for possible particle diffusion limitations of particles larger than 60 nm in diameter. We find the best model-to-measurement agreement when the accommodation coefficient of the larger particles ( D p &gt; 60 nm) was 0.1 or lower (with an accommodation coefficient of 1 for smaller particles), which suggests a diffusion limitation in the larger particles. When using these low accommodation-coefficient values, the model agrees with measurements when using a published H 2 SO 4 -organics nucleation mechanism and previously published values of rate constants for gas-phase oxidation reactions. Further, gas-phase fragmentation was found to have a significant impact upon the size distribution, and including fragmentation was necessary for accurately simulating the distributions in the OFR. The model was insensitive to the value of the reactive uptake coefficient on these aging timescales. Monoterpenes and isoprene could explain 24 %–95 % of the observed change in total volume of aerosol in the OFR, with ambient semivolatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (S/IVOCs) appearing to explain the remainder of the change in total volume. These results provide support to the mass-based findings of previous OFR studies, give insight to important size-distribution dynamics in the OFR, and enable the design of future OFR studies focused on new particle formation and/or microphysical processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives

Abstract. The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗