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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applying the Cognitive Space Gateway to Swarm Topologies

NASA’s future vision for interplanetary networking includes a lunar network, Cube Satellite (CubeSat) constellations, and deep space robotic missions, comprising what could be viewed as a network of networks. Delay-tolerant networking (DTN) architecture and protocols provide a standard network layer among these varying scenarios and mitigate many challenges of the space environment, such as long delays, unplanned service interruptions, and asymmetric links. The Cognitive Space Gateway (CSG) is a routing method in a DTN architecture that uses spiking neural networks as the learning element to optimize outing decisions in a complex environment. This work aims to further develop cognitive networking technologies in several critical areas, including DTN, the CSG algorithm, SmallSat swarm topologies, and cloud services. The CSG algorithm is tested in a realistic scenario in which the emulated network topology is based on a SmallSat swarm. The emulation environment will be built upon a commercial cloud service, such as Amazon Web Services (AWS) Elastic Compute Cloud. This work investigates the ability of such a platform to enable a flexible, lower maintenance approach to creating a multihop network outside of a physical laboratory. The cloud platform will provide a secure environment allowing for collaboration among government and academic entities.

Ricardo Lent↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Objectively Identifying Transverse Cirrus Bands in Tropical Cyclones using a Convolutional Neural Network

Transverse cirrus bands (TCBs) are bands of upper-level clouds that are regularly seen in mesoscale and synoptic-scale weather systems. In tropical cyclones, their appearance has been subjectively linked to intensification and the diurnal cycle, but these hypothesized relationships have not been rigorously tested due to the difficulty of objectively identifying TCBs in satellite images. This presentation describes a machine learning technique that successfully identifies TCBs in imagery from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager. The technique uses a convolutional neural network (CNN) that assigns a probability of each pixel in the image being associated with a TCB. Using the CNN, a database of TCBs from 2018 to 2022 was developed for the Atlantic basin. Statistics using this database will be presented, including the relationship between TCBs and deep-layer vertical wind shear, intensity change, and the TC diurnal cycle.

John Mark Mayhall↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Overview of Suomi NPP VIIRS Calibration Maneuvers

The first Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument was successfully launched on-board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) spacecraft on October 28, 2011. Suomi NPP VIIRS observations are made in 22 spectral bands, from the visible (VIS) to the long-wave infrared (LWIR), and are used to produce 22 Environmental Data Records (EDRs) with a broad range of scientific applications. The quality of these VIIRS EDRs strongly depends on the quality of its calibrated and geo-located Sensor Date Records (SDRs). Built with a strong heritage to the NASA's EOS MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, the VIIRS is calibrated on-orbit using a similar set of on-board calibrators (OBC), including a solar diffuser (SD) and solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM) system for the reflective solar bands (RSB) and a blackbody (BB) for the thermal emissive bands (TEB). On-orbit maneuvers of the SNPP spacecraft provide additional calibration and characterization data from the VIIRS instrument which cannot be obtained pre-launch and are required to produce the highest quality SDRs. These include multi-orbit yaw maneuvers for the characterization of SD and SDSM screen transmission, quasi-monthly roll maneuvers to acquire lunar observations to track sensor degradation in the visible through shortwave infrared, and a driven pitch-over maneuver to acquire multiple scans of deep space to determine TEB response versus scan angle (RVS). This paper pro-vides an overview of these three SNPP calibration maneuvers. Discussions are focused on their potential calibration and science benefits, pre-launch planning activities, and on-orbit scheduling and implementation strategies. Results from calibration maneuvers performed during the Intensive Calibration and Validation (ICV) period for the VIIRS sensor are illustrated. Also presented in this paper are lessons learned regarding the implementation of calibration spacecraft maneuvers on follow-on missions.

Butler, James J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Human Flight to Lunar and Beyond - Re-Learning Operations Paradigms

For the first time since the Apollo era, NASA is planning on sending astronauts on flights beyond LEO. The Human Space Flight (HSF) program started with a successful initial flight in Earth orbit, in December 2014. The program will continue with two Exploration Missions (EM): EM-1 will be unmanned and EM-2, carrying astronauts, will follow. NASA established a multi-center team to address the communications, and related tacking/navigation needs. This paper will focus on the lessons learned by the team designing the architecture and operations for the missions. Many of these Beyond Earth Orbit lessons had to be re-learned, as the HSF program has operated for many years in Earth orbit. Unlike the Apollo missions that were largely tracked by a dedicated ground network, the HSF planned missions will be tracked (at distances beyond GEO) by the DSN, a network that mostly serves robotic missions. There have been surprising challenges to the DSN as unique modern human spaceflight needs stretch the experience base beyond that of tracking robotic missions in deep space. Close interaction between the DSN and the HSF community to understand the unique needs (e.g. 2-way voice) resulted in a Concept of Operations (ConOps) that leverages both the deep space robotic and the Human LEO experiences. Several examples will be used to highlight the unique challenges the team faced in establishing the communications and tracking capabilities for HSF missions beyond Earth Orbit, including: Navigation. At LEO, HSF missions can rely on GPS devices for orbit determination. For Lunar-and-beyond HSF missions, techniques such as precision 2-way and 3-way Doppler and ranging, Delta-Difference-of-range, and eventually possibly on-board navigation will be used. At the same time, HSF presents a challenge to navigators, beyond those presented by robotic missions - navigating a dynamic/"noisy" spacecraft. Impact of latency - the delay associated with Round-Trip-Light-Time (RTLT). Imagine trying to have a 2-way discussion (audio or video) with an astronaut, with a 2-3 sec or more delay inserted (for lunar distances) or 20 minutes delay (for Mars distances). Balanced communications link. For robotic missions, there has been a heavy emphasis on higher downlink data rates, e.g. bringing back science data. Higher uplink data rates were of secondary importance, as uplink was used only to send commands (and occasionally small files) to the spacecraft. The ratio of downlink-to-uplink data rates was often 10:1 or more. For HSF, a continuous forward link is established and rates for uplink and downlink are more similar.

Kenny, Edward (Ted)↗

NASA NTRS2001

Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Annual Report 1999

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, located in the foothills near Pasadena, California, is the nation's lead center for the robotic exploration of space. Intense activity in space missions was the hallmark of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory as a new generation of smaller, less expensive spacecraft were sent out from Earth. From late 1998 to mid-1999, JPL launched a craft testing a futuristic ion engine, an orbiter and lander bound for Mars, a mission to fly by a comet and return a sample of its dust to Earth, a small infrared telescope, and an Earth-circling satellite that uses radar to gauge winds over the oceans. This unprecedented schedule resulted in spectacular achievements, tempered by highly visible mission losses. Weighed together, the successes and failures dramatically underscored the difficulty and risk involved in the unique business of space science and exploration. Among the achievements, the ion-engine-powered Deep Space 1, comet-bound Stardust and Earth-orbiting SeaWinds were joined by such ongoing missions as Mars Global Surveyor, Galileo and Cassini in delivering on their promise and, in some cases, providing surprising new views of space and Earth. At the same time, mission teams were disappointed by the losses of an orbiter and lander at Mars, as well as a small infrared telescope. JPL worked closely with NASA to learn from these experiences and build successful future missions. The Laboratory also achieved a key goal by winning the International Organization of Standards' 'ISO 9001' certification - a standard shared by the world's best engineering organizations. As the year rolled to a close, clocks rolled over from 1999 to 2000. Operations teams at JPL and NASA watched with satisfaction as a major campaign of Year 2000 readiness paid off with no problems among the thousands of computer systems that support the Laboratory's missions. With that auspicious beginning, JPL was positioned to step into the 21st century and embark on even yet unimagined future explorations.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)↗

NASA NTRS2011

Habitat Demonstration Unit Project Leadership and Management Strategies

This paper gives an overview of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) led multi-center Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) project leadership and management strategies. The HDU project team constructed and tested an analog prototype lunar surface habitat/laboratory called the Pressurized Excursion Module (PEM) during 2010. The prototype unit subsystems were integrated in a short amount of time, utilizing a tiger team approach that brought together over 20 habitation-related technologies and innovations from a variety of NASA centers. This paper describes the leadership and management strategies as well as lessons learned pertaining to leading and managing a multi-center diverse team in a rapid prototype environment. The PEM configuration went from a paper design to an operational surface habitat demonstration unit in less than 12 months. The HDU project is part of the strategic plan from the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Directorate Integration Office (DIO) and the Exploration Mission Systems Office (EMSO) to test destination elements in analog environments. The 2011 HDU-Deep Space Habitat (DSH) configuration will build upon the PEM work, and emphasize validity of crew operations (remote working and living), EVA operations, mission operations, logistics operations, and science operations that might be required in a deep space context for Near Earth Object (NEO) exploration mission architectures. The 2011 HDU-DSH will be field-tested during the 2011 Desert Research and Technologies Studies (DRaTS) field tests. The HDU project is a "technology-pull" project that integrates technologies and innovations from multiple NASA centers. This project will repurpose the HDU 2010 demo unit that was field tested in the 2010 DRaTS, adding habitation functionality to the prototype unit. This paper will describe the strategy of establishing a multi-center project management team that put in place the key multi-center leadership skills and disciplines to enable a successful tiger team approach. Advocacy was established with key stakeholders and NASA Headquarters (HQ) by defining a strategic vision, mission, goals and objectives for the project and team. As a technology-pull testbed capability the HDU project was able to collaborate and leverage the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) and individual NASA center investments which capitalized on their respective center core competencies and skills. This approach enable the leveraging of over $7.5m of value to create an operational habitat demonstration unit 2010 PEM configuration.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Habitat Demonstration Unit Project: Leadership and Management Strategies for a Rapid Prototyping Project

This paper gives an overview of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) led multi-center Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) project leadership and management strategies being used by the NASA HDU team for a rapid prototyping project. The HDU project team constructed and tested an analog prototype lunar surface habitat/laboratory called the Pressurized Excursion Module (PEM) during 2010. The prototype unit subsystems were integrated in a short amount of time, utilizing a tiger team rapid prototyping approach that brought together over 20 habitation-related technologies and innovations from a variety of NASA centers. This paper describes the leadership and management strategies as well as lessons learned pertaining to leading and managing a multi-center diverse team in a rapid prototype environment. The PEM configuration went from a paper design to an operational surface habitat demonstration unit in less than 12 months. The HDU project is part of the strategic plan from the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Directorate Integration Office (DIO) and the Exploration Mission Systems Office (EMSO) to test destination elements in analog environments. The 2011 HDU-Deep Space Habitat (DSH) configuration will build upon the PEM work, and emphasize validity of crew operations (remote working and living), EVA operations, mission operations, logistics operations, and science operations that might be required in a deep space context for Near Earth Object (NEO) exploration mission architectures. The 2011 HDU-DSH will be field-tested during the 2011 Desert Research and Technologies Studies (DRaTS) field tests. The HDU project is a "technology-pull" project that integrates technologies and innovations from multiple NASA centers. This project will repurpose the HDU 2010 demo unit that was field tested in the 2010 DRaTS, adding habitation functionality to the prototype unit. This paper will describe the strategy of establishing a multi-center project management team that put in place the key multi-center leadership skills and disciplines to enable a successful tiger team approach. Advocacy was established with key stakeholders and NASA Headquarters (HQ) by defining a strategic vision, mission, goals and objectives for the project and team. As a technology-pull testbed capability the HDU project was able to collaborate and leverage the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) and individual NASA center investments which capitalized on their respective center core competencies and skills. This approach enable the leveraging of over $7.5m of value to create an operational habitat demonstration unit 2010 PEM configuration.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Chapter 6: Materials for Spacecraft

The general knowledge in this chapter is intended for a broad variety of spacecraft: manned or unmanned, low Earth to geosynchronous orbit, cis-lunar, lunar, planetary, or deep space exploration. Materials for launch vehicles are covered in chapter 7. Materials used in the fabrication of spacecraft hardware should be selected by considering the operational requirements for the particular application and the design engineering properties of the candidate materials. The information provided in this chapter is not intended to replace an in-depth materials study but rather to make the spacecraft designer aware of the challenges for various types of materials and some lessons learned from more than 50 years of spaceflight. This chapter discusses the damaging effects of the space environment on various materials and what has been successfully used in the past or what may be used for a more robust design. The material categories covered are structural, thermal control for on-orbit and re-entry, shielding against radiation and meteoroid/space debris impact, optics, solar arrays, lubricants, seals, and adhesives. Spacecraft components not directly exposed to space must still meet certain requirements, particularly for manned spacecraft where toxicity and flammability are concerns. Requirements such as fracture control and contamination control are examined, with additional suggestions for manufacturability. It is important to remember that the actual hardware must be tested to understand the real, "as-built" performance, as it could vary from the design intent. Early material trades can overestimate benefits and underestimate costs. An example of this was using graphite/epoxy composite in the International Space Station science racks to save weight. By the time the requirements for vibration isolation, Space Shuttle frequencies, and experiment operations were included, the weight savings had evaporated.

Finckenor, Miria M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Robotic Technology Development at Ames: The Intelligent Robotics Group and Surface Telerobotics

Future human missions to the Moon, Mars, and other destinations offer many new opportunities for exploration. But, astronaut time will always be limited and some work will not be feasible for humans to do manually. Robots, however, can complement human explorers, performing work autonomously or under remote supervision from Earth. Since 2004, the Intelligent Robotics Group has been working to make human-robot interaction efficient and effective for space exploration. A central focus of our research has been to develop and field test robots that benefit human exploration. Our approach is inspired by lessons learned from the Mars Exploration Rovers, as well as human spaceflight programs, including Apollo, the Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station. We conduct applied research in computer vision, geospatial data systems, human-robot interaction, planetary mapping and robot software. In planning for future exploration missions, architecture and study teams have made numerous assumptions about how crew can be telepresent on a planetary surface by remotely operating surface robots from space (i.e. from a flight vehicle or deep space habitat). These assumptions include estimates of technology maturity, existing technology gaps, and likely operational and functional risks. These assumptions, however, are not grounded by actual experimental data. Moreover, no crew-controlled surface telerobotic system has yet been fully tested, or rigorously validated, through flight testing. During Summer 2013, we conducted a series of tests to examine how astronauts in the International Space Station (ISS) can remotely operate a planetary rover across short time delays. The tests simulated portions of a proposed human-robotic Lunar Waypoint mission, in which astronauts in lunar orbit remotely operate a planetary rover on the lunar Farside to deploy a radio telescope array. We used these tests to obtain baseline-engineering data.

robotics↗

NASA NTRS2012

Automating Mid- and Long-Range Scheduling for NASA's Deep Space Network

NASA has recently deployed a new mid-range scheduling system for the antennas of the Deep Space Network (DSN), called Service Scheduling Software, or S(sup 3). This system is architected as a modern web application containing a central scheduling database integrated with a collaborative environment, exploiting the same technologies as social web applications but applied to a space operations context. This is highly relevant to the DSN domain since the network schedule of operations is developed in a peer-to-peer negotiation process among all users who utilize the DSN (representing 37 projects including international partners and ground-based science and calibration users). The initial implementation of S(sup 3) is complete and the system has been operational since July 2011. S(sup 3) has been used for negotiating schedules since April 2011, including the baseline schedules for three launching missions in late 2011. S(sup 3) supports a distributed scheduling model, in which changes can potentially be made by multiple users based on multiple schedule "workspaces" or versions of the schedule. This has led to several challenges in the design of the scheduling database, and of a change proposal workflow that allows users to concur with or to reject proposed schedule changes, and then counter-propose with alternative or additional suggested changes. This paper describes some key aspects of the S(sup 3) system and lessons learned from its operational deployment to date, focusing on the challenges of multi-user collaborative scheduling in a practical and mission-critical setting. We will also describe the ongoing project to extend S(sup 3) to encompass long-range planning, downtime analysis, and forecasting, as the next step in developing a single integrated DSN scheduling tool suite to cover all time ranges.

scheduling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Runtime Monitoring for Unmanned Aerospace Systems with Neural Network Components

AI components (e.g., Deep Neural Networks) are increasingly used in unmanned Aerospace systems for safety-relevant applications. Rigorous Verification and Validation methods for such components are still in their infancy and thus, monitoring of the AI's behavior during runtime is essential. In this paper, we will present a runtime-monitoring architecture, which combines the advanced statistical analysis framework SYSAI (System Analysis using Statistical AI) with temporal and probabilistic runtime monitoring carried out by R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, and Unobtrusive Unit). Learned statistical models of complex systems with AI components are produced by the SYSAI framework and provide detailed information to enable the R2U2 runtime monitor to efficiently perform advanced safety and performance checks in nominal and off-nominal conditions. We will present initial results of our tool set and architecture on a case study, a DNN-based autonomous centerline tracking system (ACT).

Yuning He↗

NASA NTRS2005

Salt Kinematics and InSAR

As part of a long-term attempt to learn how the climatic and tectonic signal interact to shape a steady state mountain monitored displacement of a markers in SE termination and also near the summit of a small viscous salt fountain extruding onto the Central plateau of Iran. The marker displacements relate to the first InSAR interferograms of salt extrusion (980913 to 990620) calculated Earth tides, winds, air pressures and temperatures. In the first documented staking exercise, hammered wooden stakes vertically through the surgical marl (c. 1 Ocm deep) onto the top of crystalline salt. These stakes installed in an irregular array elongate E-W along the c.50 m high cliff marking the effective SE terminus of the glacier at Qum Kuh(Centra1 Iran) ,just to the E of a NE trending river cliff about 40 m high. We merely measured the distances between pairs of stakes with known azimuth about 2 m apart to calculate sub horizontal strain in a small part of Qum Kuh. Stakes moved and micro strains for up to 46 pairs of stakes (p strain= ((lengthl-length2)/1engthl) x 10-1) was calculated for each seven stake epochs and plotted against their azimuth on simplified array maps. The data fit well the sine curves cxpected of the maximum and minimum strain ellipses. The first documented stakes located on the SE where the InSAR image show -1 1 to 0 mm pink to purple, 0 to lOmm purple to blue, and show high activity of salt in low activity area of the InSAR image (980913 to 990620).Short term micro strains of stake tie lines record anisotropic expansions due to heating and contraction due to cooling. All epochs changed between 7 to 1 17 days (990928 to000 1 16), showed 200 to 400 micro strain lengthening and shortening. The contraction and extension existed in each epoch, but the final strain was extension in E-W in Epoch land 6, contraction in E-W direction during epochs 2-3-4-5 and 7. The second pair of stakes hammered about 20 cm deep into the deep soils(more than 1 m) , near summit, where the colors change between 19 to 29mm in InSAR image(9809 13 to 990620). Additional information is included in the original abstract.

Aftabi, Pedarm↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Space-Based Near-Earth Object Survey Telescope in Support of Human Exploration, Solar System Science, and Planetary Defense

Human exploration of near-Earth objects (NEOs) beginning in 2025 is one of the stated objectives of U.S. National Space Policy. Piloted missions to these bodies would further development of deep space mission systems and technologies, obtain better understanding of the origin and evolution of our Solar System, and support research for asteroid deflection and hazard mitigation strategies. As such, mission concepts have received much interest from the exploration, science, and planetary defense communities. One particular system that has been suggested by all three of these communities is a space-based NEO survey telescope. Such an asset is crucial for enabling affordable human missions to NEOs circa 2025 and learning about the primordial population of objects that could present a hazard to the Earth in the future.

Abell, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Environmental Controls and Life Support System (ECLSS) Design for a Multi-Mission Space Exploration Vehicle (MMSEV)

Engineers at Johnson Space Center (JSC) are developing an Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) design for the Multi-Mission Space Exploration Vehicle (MMSEV). The purpose of the MMSEV is to extend the human exploration envelope for Lunar, Near Earth Object (NEO), or Deep Space missions by using pressurized exploration vehicles. The MMSEV, formerly known as the Space Exploration Vehicle (SEV), employs ground prototype hardware for various systems and tests it in manned and unmanned configurations. Eventually, the system hardware will evolve and become part of a flight vehicle capable of supporting different design reference missions. This paper will discuss the latest MMSEV ECLSS architectures developed for a variety of design reference missions, any work contributed toward the development of the ECLSS design, lessons learned from testing prototype hardware, and the plan to advance the ECLSS toward a flight design.

Stambaugh, Imelda↗

NASA NTRS2013

Environmental Controls and Life Support System (ECLSS) Design for a Multi-Mission Space Exploration Vehicle (MMSEV)

Stambaugh, Imelda↗

NASA NTRS1981

An application of computer aided requirements analysis to a real time deep space system

The entire procedure of incorporating the requirements and goals of a space flight project into integrated, time ordered sequences of spacecraft commands, is called the uplink process. The Uplink Process Control Task (UPCT) was created to examine the uplink process and determine ways to improve it. The Problem Statement Language/Problem Statement Analyzer (PSL/PSA) designed to assist the designer/analyst/engineer in the preparation of specifications of an information system is used as a supporting tool to aid in the analysis. Attention is given to a definition of the uplink process, the definition of PSL/PSA, the construction of a PSA database, the value of analysis to the study of the uplink process, and the PSL/PSA lessons learned.

Farny, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Determination of Ceres Physical Parameters Using Radiometric and Optical Data

The Dawn spacecraft was launched on September 27th, 2007. Its mission is to rendezvous with and observe the two largest bodies in the main asteroid belt, Vesta and Ceres. It has completed over a year’s worth of direct observations of Vesta from early 2011 through late 2012. In the spring of 2015, the Dawn spacecraft entered orbit around the asteroid Ceres for the start of what is expected to be more than a year of science operations. The science data collected from this encounter consist of infrared (IR) images and spectra, visible images through a number of color filters, gamma ray detections and measurements of the Ceres gravity field. These data will be collected during several science phases: an Approach phase (1500000-4860 km from Ceres), a Survey orbit (4860 km radius), a High Altitude Mapping Orbit (HAMO) (1940 km radius) and a Low Altitude Mapping Orbit (LAMO) (855 km radius). The Approach phase included three Rotational Characterization (RC) opportunities. Designing each science orbit and successfully transferring into that orbit requires a sufficiently accurate estimate of Ceres physical parameters (body fixed frame, GM and harmonics). This paper focuses on work performed to estimate Ceres physical parameters using Deep Space Network (DSN) radiometric tracking data and optical measurements derived from science camera imagery. This paper describes planning for the data acquisition, as well as processing techniques and methodology. The trajectories predicted by the gravity field estimations are also compared with the actual as-flown trajectories. Observations of the gravity at high altitudes are found to be sufficient to design precision orbits at lower altitudes. Follow-up analysis after successfully reaching LAMO is included, as is a discussion of lessons learned.

Kennedy, Brian M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗