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At least 577 records · Page 32

Uncertainty quantification of material parameters in modeling coupled metal and high explosive experiments

Experiments involving the coupling of metal and high explosives (HE) are of notable defense-related interest, and we seek to refine the uncertainty quantification associated with models of such experiments. In particular, our focus is on how uncertainty related to the metal constitutive model challenges our ability to infer high explosive model parameters when analyzing focused science experiments. We consider three focused experiments involving an HE accelerating metal: small plate tests with tantalum/LX-14 and tantalum/LX-17 pairings as well as a tantalum/LX-17 cylinder test. For all three models, we perform sensitivity analysis to ascertain the influence of metal strength on the coupled experimental response. Moreover, we calibrate each model in a Bayesian setting and study the quantification of metal strength on the inference of the HE parameters. Based on our results, we offer guidance for future metal/HE experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integrated rheology model: Explosive Composition B-3

Composition B-3 (Comp B-3) is a high explosive formulation composed of 60/40wt% RDX (1,3,5-trinitroperhydro-1,3,5-triazine) /TNT (2,4,6 trinitrotoluene). Above approximately 78°C this formulation partially melts to form a multiphase system with solid RDX particles in a molten TNT matrix. This multiphase system presents a number of phenomena that influence its apparent viscosity. In an earlier study explosive Composition B-3 (Comp B-3, 60/40wt% RDX/TNT) was examined for evidence of yield stress using a non-isothermal falling ball viscometer and a yield stress model was proposed in this paper. An integrated viscosity model suitable for use in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations is developed to capture the transition from a heterogeneous solid to a Bingham viscoplastic fluid. This viscosity model is used to simulate the motion of imbedded spheres falling through molten Comp B-3. Finally, comparison of the simulations to physical tests show agreement between the positions predicted by the model and the measured locations of the spheres as a function of temperature between 90C and 165C.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Illuminating the North Korean nuclear explosion test in 2017 using remote infrasound observations

North Korea conducted its sixth underground nuclear explosion test (mb 6.3) on 2017 September 3. The underground explosion produced substantial low-frequency atmospheric waves, which were detected by infrasound arrays located up to a distance of 566 km. These infrasound waves are formed by the conversion of seismic energy to acoustic energy across the lithosphere–atmosphere interface. While infrasound records at regional distances produce estimates of ground motion amplitude over spatially extended regions covering about 26 500 km 2 , 3-D full seismo-acoustic simulations within the lithosphere and atmosphere provide quantitative information about seismo-acoustic energy partitioning. Our results demonstrate the capability of remote infrasound observations combined with 3-D propagation modelling to further develop discrimination methods for underground sources. These results contribute to enhance the confidence of source identification and characterization in nuclear test monitoring research, which is essential for the enforcement of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Combining translational and rotational seismic motions to invert local-scale seismic data for time-variable moment tensors: do rotational motions help for high-frequency seismic data produced by underground explosions?

SUMMARY We present an analysis of combining translational and rotational seismic data in an inversion for the time-variable source time functions corresponding to the components of the seismic moment tensor. We conduct a series of numerical experiments where the data are simulated by a combination of an underground explosion and a co-located double couple shear source and recorded on surface-mounted seismometers within 1–2 km of the source. The experiments are designed to mimic explosion seismology experiments, and thus the data are in the 1–10 Hz frequency range and contain very few surface waves. We use a Monte Carlo method to propagate Earth model uncertainty into the estimates of seismic source parameters. In our experiments, we find that the uncertainty of the estimated seismic source parameters increases when we add rotational seismic motions to the inversion when using a constant number of data channels. In this case, the increased degree of uncertainty in the final results is most likely due to the near-surface Earth model uncertainty that we introduce in our simulations. However, for a fixed number of seismic stations, adding rotational seismic motions to the inversion acts to decrease the uncertainty of the estimated seismic source parameters, most likely due to the increase in the number of data channels used in the inversion.

Poppeliers, Christian (ORCID:0000000159526849)↗

Regional infrasonic observations from surface explosions – influence of atmospheric variations and realistic terrain

SUMMARY A pair of 1-ton, conventional surface explosions were conducted at the Nevada National Security Site in the fall of 2020 producing seismoacoustic signatures observable hundreds of kilometres from the source location. Regional infrasonic observations include tropospheric ducting at large distances to the south, a wide stratospheric waveguide with signals observed more than 700 km to the east, and anomalous arrivals in the stratospheric shadow zone. Notable differences in propagation between the events are identified despite the explosions being conducted just two days apart due to a sharp temporal shift in the tropospheric winds as well as structural changes in the stratospheric winds. Propagation simulations of the two events have been completed using a combination of ray tracing and parabolic equation (PE) methods. Simulations have been conducted to quantify the impact of the temporal variations in the atmosphere as well as the influence of terrain on propagation. Temporal variations in reflection locations are found to produce notable changes in downrange propagation due to spatially varying terrain features. Finite frequency effects modelled by the PE are found to predict ensonification not included in corresponding 2D ray tracing simulations. Notable variations in predicted signal amplitude are found due to focusing by along-path and cross-path terrain gradients; though, the later of these is only modelled using fully 3D ray tracing analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Acoustic waves from the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship rocket explosion travelling in the elevated ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel

SUMMARY The ability to detect low-frequency sounds from distant energetic events depends on the temperature and wind structure of the atmosphere. Thus, from time to time surface-based acoustic detectors may not be able to capture sounds arriving from certain directions. However, the temperature minimum at the tropopause may create an acoustic duct called the ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel that could transmit acoustic waves laterally—but perhaps not to the ground. If true, then elevated sensors such as those borne aloft by balloons would record the signatures even in regions where ground-based sensors cannot. This has been difficult to prove because high altitude acoustic sources are rare and balloon deployments are sporadic. This work describes the detection and characterization of powerful acoustic waves generated during the launch and terminal explosion of the SpaceX Starship rocket on 2023 April 20 using a pair of microbarometers on a stratospheric balloon. The signals travelled through the AtmoSOFAR channel, carrying information about the size and nature of their source. This channel also appears to leak some acoustic energy to the ground, in agreement with previous studies. The acoustic yield of the Starship terminal explosion was on the order of $10^3$ tons trinitrotoluene equivalent, which agrees with the estimated fuel load of the vehicle to about a factor of 2, but is two orders of magnitude larger than optical estimates. These results support an earlier study that claimed lateral transmission of sound from a smaller rocket through the AtmoSOFAR channel. The transmission of source information through the AtmoSOFAR channel motivates its use for monitoring other natural and anthropogenic events using balloon-borne sensors. This may become increasingly important as more and more private and government entities conduct spacecraft launches and reentries. It may also provide a means of monitoring clear air turbulence and other sound-generating atmospheric phenomena at a distance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Near-field non-radial motion generation from underground chemical explosions in jointed granite

Here, this paper describes analysis of non-radial ground motion generated by chemical explosions in a jointed rock formation during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE). Such motion makes it difficult to discriminate between various subsurface events such as explosions, implosions (i.e. mine collapse) and earthquakes. We apply 3-D numerical simulations to understand experimental data collected during the SPEs. The joints are modelled explicitly as compliant thin inclusions embedded into the rock mass. Mechanical properties of the rock and the joints as well as the joint spacing and orientation are inferred from experimental test data, and geophysical and geological characterization of the SPE site which is dominantly Climax Stock granitic outcrop. The role of various factors characterizing the joints such as joint spacing, frictional properties, orientation and persistence in generation of non-radial motion is addressed. The joints in granite at the SPE site are oriented in nearly orthogonal directions with two vertical sets dipping at 70–80 degrees with the same strike angle, one vertical set almost orthogonal to the first two and one shallow angle joint set dipping 15 degrees. In this study we establish the relationship between the joint orientation and azimuthal variations in the polarity of the observed shear motion. The majority of the shear motion is generated due to the effects of non-elastic sliding on the joints near the source, where the wave can create significant shear stress to overcome the cohesive forces at the joints. Near the surface the joints are less confined and are subject to sliding when the pressure waves are reflected. In the far field, where the cohesive forces on the joints cannot be overcome, additional shear motion can be generated due to elastic anisotropy of the rock mass given by preferred spatial orientations of compliant joints.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The antesonic condition for the explosion of core-collapse supernovae – II. Rotation and turbulence

In the problem of steady free fall on to a standing shockwave around a central mass, the ‘antesonic’ condition limits the regime of stable accretion to $c_T^2/v_\mathrm{esc}^2\le 3/16$, where cT is the isothermal sound speed in the subsonic post-shock flow, and vesc is the escape velocity at the shock radius. Above this limit, it is impossible to satisfy both the Euler equation and the shock jump conditions, and the system transitions to a wind. This physics explains the existence of a critical neutrino luminosity in steady-state models of accretion in the context of core-collapse supernovae. Here, we extend the antesonic condition to flows with rotation and turbulence using a simple one-dimensional formalism. Both effects decrease the critical post-shock sound speed required for explosion. While quite rapid rotation is required for a significant change to the critical condition, we show that the level of turbulence typically achieved in supernova simulations can greatly impact the critical value of $c_T^2/v_\mathrm{esc}^2$. A core angular velocity corresponding to a millisecond rotation period after contraction of the proto-neutron star results in only a ~5 percent reduction of the critical curve. In contrast, near-sonic turbulence with specific turbulent kinetic energy $K/c_T^2=0.5-1$, leads to a decrease in the critical value of $c_T^2/v_{\rm esc}^2$ by ~20 to 40 percent. This analysis provides a framework for understanding the role of post-shock turbulence in instigating explosions in models that would otherwise fail and helps explain why multidimensional simulations explode more easily than their one-dimensional counterparts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The essential character of the neutrino mechanism of core-collapse supernova explosions

Abstract Calibrating with detailed 2D core-collapse supernova (CCSN) simulations, we derive a simple CCSN explosion condition based solely upon the terminal density profiles of state-of-the-art stellar evolution calculations of the progenitor massive stars. This condition captures the vast majority of the behaviour of the one hundred 2D state-of-the-art models we performed to gauge its usefulness. The goal is to predict, without resort to detailed simulation, the explodability of a given massive star. We find that the simple maximum fractional ram pressure jump discriminant we define works well ∼90 per cent of the time and we speculate on the origin of the few false positives and false negatives we witness. The maximum ram pressure jump generally occurs at the time of accretion of the silicon/oxygen interface, but not always. Our results depend upon the fidelity with which the current implementation of our code F ornax adheres to Nature and issues concerning the neutrino–matter interaction, the nuclear equation of state, the possible effects of neutrino oscillations, grid resolution, the possible role of rotation and magnetic fields, and the accuracy of the numerical algorithms employed remain to be resolved. Nevertheless, the explodability condition we obtain is simple to implement, shows promise that it might be further generalized while still employing data from only the unstable Chandrasekhar progenitors, and is a more credible and robust simple explosion predictor than can currently be found in the literature.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Coulomb-explosion imaging of concurrent CH 2 BrI photodissociation dynamics

The dynamics following laser-induced molecular photodissociation of gas-phase CH 2 BrI at 271.6 nm were investigated by time-resolved Coulomb-explosion imaging using intense near-IR femtosecond laser pulses. Furthermore, the observed delay-dependent photofragment momenta reveal that CH 2 BrI undergoes C-I cleavage, depositing 65.6% of the available energy into internal product states, and that absorption of a second UV photon breaks the C-Br bond of CH 2 Br. Simulations confirm that this mechanism is consistent with previous data recorded at 248 nm, demonstrating the sensitivity of Coulomb-explosion imaging as a real-time probe of chemical dynamics.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

High Explosive Ignition through Chemically Activated Nanoscale Shear Bands

Shock initiation and detonation of high explosives is considered to be controlled through hot spots, which are local regions of elevated temperature that accelerate chemical reactions. Using classical molecular dynamics, we predict the formation of nanoscale shear bands through plastic failure in shocked TATB high explosive crystal. By scale-bridging with quantum-based molecular dynamics, we show that shear bands exhibit lower reaction barriers. While shear bands quickly cool,they remain chemically activated and support increased reaction rates without the local heating typically evoked by the hot spot paradigm. We describe this phenomenon as chemical activation through shear banding

Chemistry - Inorganic↗

Characterization and differentiation of aluminum powders used in improvised explosive devices – Part 1: Proof of concept of the utility of particle micromorphometry

Abstract Aluminum (Al) powders are commonly used in improvised explosive devices as metallic fuels, a component of explosive mixtures. These powders can be obtained readily from industrial‐scale and consumer products, and produced using unsophisticated “kitchen chemistry” techniques. This research demonstrates the potential of automated particle micromorphometry for comparisons between known source and questioned Al powders recovered from IEDs, as well as for insight into the method of Al powder manufacture. Al powder samples were obtained from legitimate manufacturers, and 56 samples were produced “in‐house” from Al‐containing spray paints and ball‐milled Al foils. Transmitted light microscope images of Al powder particles were acquired using an automated stage with automated z‐focus; 17 size and shape parameters were measured for all particles. Approximately 37,000–2,500,000 particles/sample were analyzed using an open‐source statistical package with customized code. Dimensionality reduction was required for processing the large datasets: eight of the 17 measured variables were selected based on inspection of the correlation matrix. Data from four subsamples from each of the 56 samples produced using “in‐house” methods were analyzed using ANOVA to assess the within‐ and between‐sample variation. High within‐sample variation was noted; however, ANOVA and post‐hoc Tukey's honestly significant difference (HSD) tests demonstrated that the between‐sample variation was substantially larger than the within‐sample variation. Each sample could be differentiated from all other samples in the test set. Future experiments will focus on ways to reduce the within‐sample variation, and additional statistical and microanalytical methods to classify sources and confidently constrain the method of Al powder manufacture.

Baldaino, JenaMarie↗

Improved field assessments of chemicals and explosives using high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy with a tagged neutron interrogation system

A field-portable tagged neutron interrogation system is being developed for detection of explosives and chemical warfare agents by prompt γ-ray neutron activation analysis. The system combines an associated particle imaging deuterium-tritium neutron generator with a high-purity germanium γ-ray detector. Fine spatial resolution neutron and α detectors enable precise mapping of characteristic γ-ray emission distributions onto high-clarity neutron radiographic images. A narrow coincidence gate associated with each tagged neutron ensures a large signal-to-background ratio, thus significantly improving sensitivity to the chemical compositions of the items being assessed. Recent experimental results recorded from test objects involving mock explosives and other chemicals are presented.

Bucher, Brian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)]↗

Uncertainty analysis for infrasound waveform inversion: Application to explosion yield estimation

While the acoustic waveform inversion method is increasingly used in geophysical acoustics to constrain source parameters, the inversion results are often provided without any uncertainty analysis. Here, this study presents a probabilistic representation for acoustic waveform inversion and method to evaluate the inversion uncertainty using ground-truth data. A posteriori probability distribution of source estimate is described by a priori waveform misfit covariance and the variance of acoustic source model. The probabilistic framework is applied to local explosion infrasound to estimate the yields of explosions and uncertainty. Estimated yields showed overall good agreement with the true yields (less than 25% errors). The uncertainty of the estimated yield is represented by the sum of the waveform inversion uncertainty and source model uncertainty. It is shown that the yield uncertainty attributed to local infrasound inversion (within 10 km) is as small as the uncertainty caused by 10% prediction errors in the acoustic source model. Finally, these results indicate that the acoustic source model uncertainty should also be considered for accurate yield estimation and that local infrasound can be a valuable tool to understand the magnitude of the source uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Study of Electric Explosion of Flat Micron-Thick Foils at Current Densities of (5–50)×10 8 A/cm 2

Electric explosions of flat Al, Тi, Ni, Cu, and Та foils with thicknesses of 1–16 μm, widths of 1–8 mm, and lengths of 5–11 mm were studied experimentally on the BIN, XP, and COBRA high-current generators at currents of 40–1000 kA and current densities of (5–50) × 10 8 A/cm 2 . The images of the exploded foils were taken at different angles to the foil surface by using point projection radiography with an X-pinch hot spot as the radiation source, the spatial resolution and exposure time being 3 μm and 50 ps, respectively, as well by the laser probing method with a spatial resolution of 20 μm and an exposure time of 180 ps. In the course of foil explosion, rapidly expanding objects resembling the core and corona of an exploded wire were observed. To this end, it is shown that the core of the exploded foil has a complicated time-varying structure.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Codes for "Shallow Soil Response to a Buried Chemical Explosion with Geophones and Distributed Acoustic Sensing" DAG - 01101646

The codes reproduce the figures of the manuscript entitled "Shallow Soil Response to a Buried Chemical Explosion with Geophones and Distributed Acoustic Sensing" submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth. Geophone data and Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) data recorded during the Phase II of the The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) along a fiber-optic cable offshore were processed to understand the response of the shallow subsurface to an explosion. This Ground-based Nuclear Detonation Detection (GNDD), Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM), and Source Physics Experiment (SPE) research was funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration, Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (NNSA DNN R&D).

Viens, Loic↗

Subsurface Spectroscopy of Thermal Degradation Inside an Inert Plastic Bonded Explosive (PBX) Simulant Using Feedback-Assisted Wavefront Shaping

We characterize the subsurface thermal degradation of an inert analog of high-explosive molecular crystals (Eu:Y(acac) 3 (DPEPO)) (EYAD) embedded inside of a plastic bonded explosive simulant using feedback-assisted wavefront shaping-based fluorescence and Raman spectroscopies. This technique utilizes wavefront shaping to focus pump light inside a heterogeneous material onto a target particle, which significantly improves its spectroscopic signature. We find that embedding the EYAD crystals in the heterogeneous polymer results in improved thermal stability, relative to bare crystal measurements, with the crystal remaining fluorescent to >612 K inside of the heterogeneous material, while the bare crystal’s fluorescence is fully quenched by 500 K. We hypothesize that this improvement is due to the polymer restricting the effects of EYAD melting, which occurs at 400 K and is the primary mechanism for spectroscopic changes in the temperature range explored.

Anderson, Benjamin R.↗