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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

NdPO 4 solubility and aqueous Neodymium speciation in supercritical fluids: An experimental study at 500–700 °C and 1.7 kbar

A key aspect in the formation of rare earth elements (REE) deposits is the role of REE transport as aqueous REE complexes in supercritical hydrothermal solutions, where the nature of the aqueous complex is controlled by solution composition, temperature and pressure. Despite chloride being considered as one of the most abundant transporting ligands in magmatic-hydrothermal fluids, experimental investigations on the stability of aqueous REE chloride complexes are scarce above 300 °C. In this study, synthetic NdPO 4 crystals were reacted with non-saline and saline (0, 0.05 and 0.5 mNaCl), acidic (0.01 mHCl) aqueous solutions in a series of solubility experiments conducted at 500–700 °C and 1.7 kbar, where the solubilities were determined using a stable Nd isotope ( 145 Nd isotope spike) dilution technique. NdPO 4 solubility ranges between 28 ppm and 10,858 ppm, where solubility increases with both temperature and salinity. At 500 °C, log mNdPO 4 increases from –3.93 to –1.60 and there is a strong correlation between NdPO 4 solubility and NaCl concentrations (slope of 1.2 ± 0.3), indicating stabilization of the Nd chloride aqueous complexes with a stoichiometry corresponding to NdCl 2+ . At 600 °C, this correlation is weaker (slope of 0.4, log mNdPO 4 increases from –2.63 to –1.88) indicating the stabilization of both Nd chloride and hydroxyl species controlling solubility. At 700 °C, NdPO 4 solubility is largely independent of NaCl concentration indicating that solubility is controlled by Nd hydroxyl complexes, where stoichiometry suggests the neutral Nd(OH) 3 0 species is dominant. The solubility product (Ksp) of NdPO4 is derived from experimental data with the relation: log K sp = -41.81 – 0.057T – 20987/T, with T temperature in Kelvin. Comparison of the measured Nd phosphate solubility to thermodynamic predictions using the available Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state parameters for aqueous Nd complexes indicate that predictions are up to three orders of magnitude lower compared to experimental observations. This discrepancy is most pronounced in saline solutions, suggesting that thermodynamic properties of the REE chloride species in supercritical fluids require revision. Numerical simulations of fluid-rock interaction between acidic, saline fluids and a Strange Lake felsic mineral assemblage demonstrates that NdPO 4 solubility predictions from models are four to six orders of magnitude lower than those calculated based on empirical fits from experiments, which suggests that acidic, saline fluids may play an important role in mobilizing large amounts of light REE from 450 to 700 °C.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stable isotope equilibria in the dihydrogen-water-methane-ethane-propane system. Part 2: Experimental determination of hydrogen isotopic equilibrium for ethane-H2 from 30 to 200 °C and propane-H2 from 75 to 200 °C

The stable isotopic compositions of light n-alkanes, including methane, ethane, and propane, are often used to identify the sources and thermal maturity of natural gas samples. Though stable isotopic compositions of these molecules are commonly assumed to be controlled by kinetic isotope effects, recent studies have proposed both carbon and hydrogen isotopic equilibrium may also occur in some samples. Assessing whether samples are in isotopic equilibrium requires knowledge of light alkane equilibrium fractionation factors over geologically relevant temperatures for formation and storage (up to ∼300 °C). In this study, we report experimental results of hydrogen isotopic equilibrium between ethane and H2 from 30 to 200 °C and propane and H2 from 75 to 200 °C. We compare these results with high-level theoretical calculations and provide a preferred polynomial fit to describe equilibrium fractionation factors. Comparison of these fractionation factors with a compilation of ∼500 compiled environmental gas samples supports the proposal that many (∼50%) of these natural gas samples exhibit hydrogen isotopic compositions consistent with having formed in or attained methane-ethane-propane hydrogen isotopic equilibrium over geologically relevant temperatures for formation and storage (50–300 °C).

Turner, Andrew C↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. A systematic evaluation of the interaction between coastal catchment properties and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by soil respiration is significant for assessing carbon dynamics and predicting the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in coastal TAIs. The soil CO2 efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation index (kNDVI), climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of finned tube heat exchanger using curved wavy delta winglet vortex generators with circular perforations

Vortex generation is recognized as an effective passive approach to improve the heat transfer rate in fin and tube heat exchangers (FTHEs). The current study proposed innovative designs of curved wavy delta winglet vortex generators (CWDWVGs), both without and with circular perforations, to improve the heat transfer efficiency of FTHEs. There is potential to increase heat transfer performance further through various CWDWVG designs. Here, this study explores seven unique CWDWVG configurations, from 1-wave to 7-wave. A 3-D computational numerical model is utilized to evaluate the Thermo-hydraulic performance of FTHEs fitted with these different CWDWVG configurations across Reynolds numbers from 400 to 2000. This comparative analysis of the Thermo-hydraulic performance of FTHEs featuring four parallel circular tube layouts assesses configurations both with and without vortex generators (VGs) and various hole configurations. The evaluation of Thermo-hydraulic performance involves different parameters, including the London area goodness factor (LAGF), Colburn factor (j), friction factor (f), pressure drop (?P), and Nusselt number (Nu). Results demonstrate that the various CWDWVG configurations and the number of holes in them substantially affect the efficiency, as evaluated by the dimensionless Performance Evaluation Criteria (PEC). Notably, the 7-wave CWDWVGs surpassed other configurations, and integrating circular punched perforations further improved the thermal-hydraulic performance of FTHE. Specifically, the 7-wave CWDWVGs without holes demonstrated superior performance over other configurations, showing a significant increase in Nusselt number by 75.18% and 85.16% at Reynolds numbers of 2000 and 400, respectively, alongside an increase in pressure drop by 216.38% to 224.96%. Meanwhile, the 7-wave CWDWVGs with eight holes, in comparison to those without holes, exhibited a Nusselt number increase of 0.85%, a pressure drop decrease of 7.31%, and a reduction in the friction factor by 5.82%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Evaluation of Control-Oriented Heavy Duty Vehicle Air Drag Coefficient Models

Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) are a significant source of fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, prompting solutions such as HDV platooning to mitigate these negative impacts through air drag reduction. The intervehicle distance in an HDV platoon needs to be carefully selected, such that the platoon-level energy efficiency and safety considerations can be well balanced. Underlying this problem lies in accurately modeling the relationship between HDV air drag coefficient and intervehicle distance. Through comprehensive evaluation and comparison, we analyze five control-oriented HDV air drag coefficient models, including the polynomial model, rational polynomial model, rational model, semi-quadratic model, and ridge model. Leveraging Scipy Curve-Fit toolbox and our previously compiled air drag coefficient datasets, we optimally identify the parameters inside each model. The calibrated models are then thoroughly evaluated via five complementary metrics. The comparison results reveal that the semi-quadratic model has the highest overall performance, while the widely adopted rational model only exhibits suboptimal performance.

Best, Micah↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generalized fiducial inference on differentiable manifolds

We introduce a novel approach to inference on parameters that take values in a Riemannian manifold embedded in a Euclidean space. Parameter spaces of this form are ubiquitous across many fields, including chemistry, physics, computer graphics, and geology. Here, this new approach uses generalized fiducial inference (GFI) to obtain a posterior-like distribution on the manifold, without needing to know local parameterizations that map to the constrained space from an unconstrained Euclidean space. Using mathematical tools from Riemannian geometry, we construct a constrained generalized fiducial distribution (CGFD). A Bernstein-von Mises-type result for the CGFD, which provides intuition for how the desirable asymptotic qualities of the unconstrained generalized fiducial distribution are inherited by the CGFD, is provided. To illustrate the practical use of the CGFD, we provide a proof-of-concept example in the context of a linear logspline density estimation problem, and demonstrate that CGFD-based confidence sets exhibit desirable coverage properties via simulation. As an application, we fit a CGFD to COVID-19 case count data from North Carolina, USA.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the Determinants of Household Capabilities Burden During Power Outages: The Case of Winter Storm Uri

Existing research primarily uses census data to identify the vulnerability of communities to hazards. These vulnerability indices provide aggregated data and are not hazard-specific nor well-validated with post-event data. In contrast, our study uses household survey data (n=1065) to understand which Texan households suffered the greatest loss of their capabilities due to power outages and other utility service disruptions during Winter Storm Uri. Inspired by the Capabilities Approach, our measures of burden include the number of household capability types disrupted during the outages (e.g., cooking, heating, refrigeration), the severity of impact for each disrupted capability, and the additional time and financial costs of coping with these disruptions. We perform a clustering analysis, and find two distinct groups in our data, consisting of ‘lesser burden' and ‘heavier burden' households. Results indicate that the households experiencing the heaviest capabilities burden were most likely to experience longer power outages and the loss of water services. They were also more likely to have a Hispanic-Latino household member, lack access to a generator, live in a rented home, have larger households with more young children, fewer adults over 65, lower household incomes, been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and more family characteristics that made life harder. We also fit a logistic regression model to assess the role of outage, household, and community characteristics in predicting differences in capabilities burden. Our results offer insights into enumerating the consequences of utility service disruptions on households, which can inform more targeted and equitable resilience strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A macro-micro approach for identifying crystal plasticity parameters for necking and failure in nickel-based alloy haynes 282

Here, this work develops a two-scales macro-micro approach to address the challenge in calibrating crystal plasticity microstructural models when samples undergo necking prior to fracture. The crystal plasticity models are crucial for predicting the materials’ plastic deformation and failure at the microstructure level, identifying the materials’ intrinsic properties as well as investigating the microstructure-properties relationships. However, after necking occurs, the experimentally measured stress-strain curves fail to reflect the materials ‘true’ stress-strain behavior and cannot be directly fitted into crystal plasticity models. The proposed macro-micro approach employs a top-down strategy to address this challenge, which has been studied with experimental tests on precipitation-strengthened Ni-based superalloy Haynes® 282®. In this approach, a macro rate-dependent anisotropic plasticity model with Voce-type hardening and Rice-Tracey damage law is first utilized to model the deformation and failure of the tensile bar, and calibrated by matching the stress-strain curves, necking strain, and reduction of area. Especially, to match the testing results under different applied strain rates, the rate-sensitivity parameter m and saturation stress in the elasticity model are modified to incorporate dependence on the local strain rate. Then, the ‘true’ stress-strain behaviors are extracted from the necking zone of the macro-model, which are used to calibrate a micro-model with explicit microstructures and governed by an extended crystal plasticity law. The consistency between the micro-model and macro-model are enforced during calibration. The calibration outcomes from the crystal plasticity model elucidate the materials intrinsic properties for slip, hardening, and failure, which is vital for further investigations into the microstructure-properties relationship and for accurate prediction of the material behavior under various test and service conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation and development of flow condensation correlations using the data from low GWP refrigerants in an axial micro-fin aluminum tube

To mitigate global warming, the world is transitioning to refrigerants with low global warming potential (GWP). Supporting this shift requires a model that can accurately predict the heat transfer and pressure drop of new refrigerants, crucial for designing efficient heat exchangers. Existing models, however, are largely based on currently deployed refrigerants and primarily developed for unexpanded micro-fin tubes with spiral angles of 6° to 30°. Their applicability to new refrigerants, especially in expanded micro-fin tubes, is uncertain. This study assesses the performance of four well-known condensation models for six emerging refrigerants—R-32, R-454B, R-454C, R-455A, R-1234yf, and R-1234ze(E)—against experimental data. Initially, the Han and Lee (2005) model shows the best prediction accuracy with a mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 22.1 %. To enhance the accuracy of heat transfer models for new refrigerants and geometries with large temperature glides, two approaches are proposed. Here, the first approach applies a simple correction factor, reducing the MAD of the Cavallini et al. (2009) model from 68.2 % to 15.4 %. The second approach uses the variable metric method for minimization, fitting new constants to the data. This optimization results in the Kedzierski and Goncalves (1997) model achieving the highest accuracy, with a MAD of 13.1 %. For pressure drop models, the Cavallini et al. (1997) model is the most accurate with a MAD of 6.4 %, followed by the Haraguchi et al. (1993) model with a MAD of 9.4 %. Due to its simplicity, the Haraguchi et al. (1993) model is a practical option for predicting frictional pressure drop.

Axial micro-fin tubes↗
DOE OSTI2026

Approximation of refrigerant thermophysical properties using neural networks to speed up transient thermofluid simulations

Accurate and efficient evaluations of refrigerant thermophysical properties and their partial derivatives are essential for transient simulations of thermofluid systems, where several computations need to be executed at each integration time step. Since the utilization of an Equation of State for retrieving properties based on a pair of independent inputs typically involves numerical iterations in solution procedures, when the input variables differ from the refrigerant state variables employed in dynamic models, a variety of approaches including lookup table interpolation and curve fitting have been developed to explicitly approximate these properties based on the state variables, and consequently eliminate internal iterations. This paper presents an alternative method that exploits derivative-informed neural networks to model refrigerant properties explicitly from inputs of pressure and enthalpy, while ensuring consistent partial derivatives generated by differentiating the neural networks. Computational speed and accuracy of the proposed approach are demonstrated via transient simulations of a discretized heat exchanger model in Modelica, and comparisons against other property evaluation routines. Simulation results indicate that the proposed approach can realize a significant speedup with negligible discrepancies in predicted transients. The method is implemented in an open-source Modelica library.

Ma, Jiacheng↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-temperature stability and thermal expansion behavior of equi-atomic refractory multi-principal element alloys based on MoNbTi system for Gen IV reactor applications

The present study investigates the thermal stability and thermal expansion behavior of seven equi-atomic refractory multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs) based on the MoNbTi ternary system composed of low neutron absorption cross section elements. Through an integrated approach utilizing in-situ high-temperature X-ray diffraction (HT-XRD) in conjunction with differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), dilatometry and ageing heat treatment, the thermal stability of the MPEAs was comprehensively analyzed. In-situ HT-XRD experiment confirmed the stability of the room temperature phases up to 1000 °C with no peaks observed corresponding to additional phases in the HT-XRD patterns at 500, 800 and 1100 °C. DSC thermograms showed the absence of peaks up to 1000 °C, while peaks and valleys corresponding to exothermic and endothermic events were observed above 1000 °C. Coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) derived from second order polynomial fitting of linear thermal expansion data from the dilatometry experiment showed linear increment up to 1000 °C for all the alloys except those containing Zr. The Cr containing alloys exhibited notably higher CTE values, particularly the Al containing alloy exhibited the highest value. Ageing heat treatment at 800 and 1000 °C for 96 h and subsequent microstructural analysis revealed significant precipitation of secondary phases in MoNbTiZr, MoNbTiZrV and MoNbTiCrAl. In conclusion, a substantial increase in hardness was observed in MoNbTiZr and MoNbTiCrAl due to secondary phase precipitation, while the other alloys maintained hardness values comparable to their as-cast and homogenized states.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reformulating a Gurson-based dynamic damage model and demonstrating improved predictive power and numerical robustness

The original Tepla (TEnsile PLAsticity) ductile damage model, based on the Gurson yield surface, has long been used to model damage evolution and material failure under dynamic loading. Unfortunately, Tepla suffered from mesh sensitivity, numerical instability, and limited predictive capability. Here, we theoretically reformulate Tepla to address these issues. We especially focus on the prediction of porosity, which is the key state variable used for modeling ductile damage, as compared to more easily measured surface velocities, which are at best an indirect measure of damage. Key model changes include separating the viscosity during volumetric void growth from underlying shear strength behavior and switching to an iterative bisection solver. The new Tepla is then calibrated on incipient spall experiments on half-hard copper and tantalum, which demonstrate its ability to simultaneously fit the model to recovered porosity distributions and measured surface velocities, a stringent test. Improved numerical behavior, such as greatly reduced mesh sensitivity, is also shown in those simulations. Finally, the new Tepla model is applied to several high-explosive loaded, sweeping wave experiments, showing the ability of the model to predict behavior on tests with significantly different loading conditions and histories than the calibration data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

The past, present, and future of peaking thermal power plants in the United States

Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

The evolution of coal porosity during pyrolysis

Gasification of coal, municipal waste, or other organic materials is a potential hydrogen source that entails complex thermal decomposition and transport processes. This study provides a multiscale analysis of these processes for sub-bituminous (Usibelli, Healy, Alaska) and lignite (Center, North Dakota) coals and provides data useful for process design. The chemistry, mineralogy, and pore structures of pyrolyzed coal and their evolution with thermal decomposition are discussed. Samples pyrolyzed at 200–1000 °C were analyzed by small-angle neutron scattering; ultra-small, small-, and wide-angle X-ray scattering; and other complementary techniques. Scanning electron microscopy showed new pores in the high-temperature-pyrolyzed material. Upon heating, the coals became progressively denser, and the concentration of hydrogen decreased. Changes in pore volume fell into three temperature ranges: an initial, low-temperature range that, for the Usibelli coal, involved an increase in overall porosity; a mid-temperature range associated with pore volume loss; and a high-temperature range associated with significant porosity increase and char formation. This transformation was paralleled by changes in fractal dimension and correlation length. The higher the pyrolysis temperature the greater the small-pore-volume fraction and overall surface area became. Pyrolysis increased the lateral size of coal crystallites, decreased the amorphous fraction, and increased the aromatics fraction and overall coal rank. Comparisons of neutron and X-ray scattering data and subsequent water uptake studies showed that pre-dried coals can re-hydrate relatively rapidly upon exposure to air, which can significantly affect the porosity calculated from small-angle-scattering data. Fits to the cumulative porosity curves provide a method for modeling the physical and chemical transformation of hydrogen-containing feedstock during gasification.

Anovitz, Lawrence {Larry} [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000226↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference approach to analyze apparent activation barriers and reaction orders from microreactor data

Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intrinsic activation energies for ring contraction of allylic cations in zeolites

Cyclic carbocations are important intermediates in zeolite-catalyzed chemistries such as methanol-to-hydrocarbons conversion, naphthenes ring opening, or coke formation. While information about their thermodynamic stability exists, little is known about the kinetics of formation and transformation of cyclic carbocations in zeolites. To fill this knowledge gap, ring contraction of the 1,3,5,5-tetramethylcyclohexenyl cation (C 10 H 17 + ), a representative of 6-membered ring allylic cations, was investigated by in situ UV–vis and IR spectroscopy. Protonic forms of zeolites served as catalysts, at temperatures from 80 °C to 135 °C. Significant oligomerization and hydride transfer in BEA and FAU hampered kinetics analysis, whereas ring contraction dominated in the channels of MOR. The reactant cation, characterized by an electronic absorption at 314 nm and an allylic stretch at 1549 cm −1 , contracted to both a 1,3-alkyl-substituted cyclopentenyl cation (287 nm and 1506 cm −1 ) and a 1,2,3-alkyl-substituted cyclopentenyl cation (297 nm and 1489 cm −1 ). Collection of time-resolved IR spectra and fitting of the intensities with various kinetic models revealed a third transformation, which is expected from thermodynamics: the 1,3-alkyl-substituted cyclopentenyl cation isomerizes to the 1,2,3-alkyl-substituted cyclopentenyl cation. Series of IR spectra recorded at different temperatures delivered intrinsic activation enthalpies (entropies) in MOR of 67 ± 2 kJ mol −1 (−130 ± 6 J mol −1 K −1 ) and 90 ± 3 kJ mol −1 (−70 ± 8 J mol −1 K −1 ) for the contraction to 1,3- and 1,2,3-substituted species, and of 88 ± 5 kJ mol −1 (−84 ± 12 J mol −1 K −1 ) for the isomerization. The findings characterize one path – via contraction of larger rings – to different cyclopentenyl species in zeolites; and the associated, moderate activation energies suggest such transformations contribute to many complex hydrocarbon reaction networks.

Acid catalysis↗