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NASA NTRS2003

Polar Heat Flow on Io

Recently, Galileo spacecraft data have revealed Io's polar regions to be much warmer than previously expected. This unexpected development came from Photo-Polarimeter Radiometer (PPR) data which show that the minimum night temperatures are in the range of 90-95 K virtually everywhere on Io. The minimum night temperatures show no dependence upon latitude and, when away from the sunset terminator, they show no dependence upon time of night. This is indeed bizarre behavior for surface units which generally had been assumed to be passive with respect to Io's pervasive volcanism. Night temperatures of 90-95 K at high, polar latitudes are particularly hard to explain. Even assuming infinite thermal inertia, at these latitudes there is insufficient sunlight to support these warm night temperatures. Thus, through the process of elimination of other possibilities, we come to the conclusion that these surfaces are volcanically heated. Taking previously passive units and turning them into new sources of heat flow is a radical departure from previous thermophysical model paradigms. However, the geological interpretation is straight forward. We are simply seeing the effect of old, cool lava flows which cover most of the surface of Io but yet have some heat to radiate. Under these new constraints, we have taken on the challenge of formulating a physical model which quantitatively reproduces all of the observations of Io's thermal emission. In the following we introduce a new parametric model which suffices to identify a previously unrecognized polar component of Io's heat flow.

Veeder, G. J.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Simulation of Spent Nuclear Fuel loading into a Final Waste Repository

Previous work towards studying repository loading have used: - spent nuclear fuel (SNF) with an average burnup composition; - a lumped capacitance thermal model for calculating temperature in a Cyclus repository model. The goal of this work is to improve on the repository models and use U.S. historical SNF inventory data in simulations to more accurately study the loading of a waste repository. These goals will be achieved by: - using UNF-ST-and-DARDS Unified Database (UDB) that has historic assembly-specific data (e.g, isotopic composition, heat) in Cyclus simulations; - implementing a more accurate thermal model within a Cyclus repository model. Objectives: - Create a Cyclus spent fuel conditioning model that packages spent fuel bundles into packages which have user-defined properties. - Create a Cyclus medium-fidelity repository model that gives accurate time and spatial dependent temperature values and loads the repository based on a user-selected loading strategy. Cyclus is an agent-based extensible framework for modeling flow of material through user-defined nuclear fuel cycles. In Cyclus, each facility in the fuel cycle is modeled individually and the facilities interact with one another as independent agents. The spent fuel conditioning model accepts spent fuel bundles and puts them into a cylindrical waste package. In the spent fuel conditioning model, the user can define variables: For each layer, radius, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity; For each package, Number of spent fuel bundles, Radius and height. The waste repository model accepts waste packages and emplaces them into available positions within the waste repository based on a thermal criteria. The thermal criteria is a temperature limit at the interface between the waste package surface and the host geology, that is set based on the repository's host geology. In the waste repository model, the user can define the variables: Capacity, Distance between waste packages, Distance between drifts, Repository host geology, Loading Strategy. After the addition of new waste packages at each time step, the waste repository model recalculates the temperature at each location in the repository. If the addition of this new package causes its temperature to exceed the thermal limit, it will be placed back into the buffer. A thermal model that relies on a transient 'outside' model and quasi-steady-state 'inside' model is used to accurately determine the temperature in the repository. The 'outside' model assumes a homogenous medium with the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) replaced by the geologic medium. Temperature solutions for the central waste package, adjacent point and line sources are superimposed to calculate the temperature at specific points in the repository. The central drift consists of one finite line source which represents the central waste package. The central drift also consists of point sources that represent neighboring waste packages in the central drift. The neighboring drifts are represented by infinite line sources. The 'inside' model is considered to be at a quasi-steady-state condition because EBS has a relatively low thermal mass compared to the infinite geologic medium. The steady state calculation is performed at each time step with the heat source and interface temperature as boundary conditions. Future Work: Run Cyclus simulations with U.S. historical SNF inventory data, the spent fuel conditioning and repository models to study how waste package acceptance strategies impact repository loading.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian seismic inversion based on rock-physics prior modeling for the joint estimation of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies

We propose a Bayesian approach for seismic inversion to estimate acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies within the reservoir conditioned to post-stack seismic and well data. The link between elastic and petrophysical properties is given by a joint prior distribution for the logarithm of impedance and porosity, based on a rock-physics model. The well conditioning is performed through a background model obtained by well log interpolation. Two different approaches are presented: in the first approach, the prior is defined by a single Gaussian distribution, whereas in the second approach it is defined by a Gaussian mixture to represent the well data multimodal distribution and link the Gaussian components to different geological lithofacies. The forward model is based on a linearized convolutional model. For the single Gaussian case, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution, resulting in a fast algorithm to compute the solution of the inverse problem, i.e. the posterior distribution of acoustic impedance and porosity as well as the facies probability given the observed data. For the Gaussian mixture prior, it is not possible to obtain the distributions analytically, hence we propose a Gibbs algorithm to perform the posterior sampling and obtain several reservoir model realizations, allowing an uncertainty analysis of the estimated properties and lithofacies. Both methodologies are applied to a real seismic dataset with three wells to obtain 3D models of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies. The methodologies are validated through a blind well test and compared to a standard Bayesian inversion approach. Using the probability of the reservoir lithofacies, we also compute a 3D isosurface probability model of the main oil reservoir in the studied field.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Noachian/Hesperian Hiatus and Erosive Reactivation of Martian Valley Networks

Despite new evidence for persistent flow and sedimentation on early Mars, it remains unclear whether valley networks were active over long geologic timescales (10(exp 5)-10(exp 8) yr), or if flows were persistent only during multiple discrete episodes of moderate (approx. 10(exp 4) yr) to short (<10 yr) duration. Understanding the long-term stability/variability of valley network hydrology would provide an important control on paleoclimate and groundwater models. Here we describe geologic evidence for a hiatus in highland valley network activity while the fretted terrain formed, followed by a discrete reactivation of persistent (but possibly variable) erosive flows. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Irwin, R. P., III.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Optimization of radar imaging system parameters for geological analysis

The use of radar image simulation to model terrain variation and determine optimum sensor parameters for geological analysis is described. Optimum incidence angle is determined by the simulation, which evaluates separately the discrimination of surface features possible due to terrain geometry and that due to terrain scattering. Depending on the relative relief, slope, and scattering cross section, optimum incidence angle may vary from 20 to 80 degrees. Large incident angle imagery (more than 60 deg) is best for the widest range of geological applications, but in many cases these large angles cannot be achieved by satellite systems. Low relief regions require low incidence angles (less than 30 deg), so a satellite system serving a broad range of applications should have at least two selectable angles of incidence.

Waite, W. P.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Transport of perfluorocarbon tracers in the Cranfield Geological Carbon Sequestration Project

A field–scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection pilot project was conducted by the Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) at Cranfield, Mississippi. Two associated campaigns in 2009 and 2010 were carried out to co–inject perfluorocarbon tracers (PFTs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) with CO 2 . Tracers in gas samples from two observation wells were analyzed to construct breakthrough curves. In this work, we present the field data and numerical modeling of the flow and transport of CO 2 , brine, and tracers. A high–resolution static model of the formation geology in the detailed area study (DAS) was used to capture the impact of connected flow pathways created by fluvial channels on breakthrough curves and breakthrough times of PFTs and SF6 tracers. We use the cubic–plus–association (CPA) equation of state, which takes into account the polar nature of water molecules, to describe the phase behavior of CO 2 –brine–tracer mixtures. Our simulated results show good agreement for the 2009 tracer campaign in Cranfield, while a larger discrepancy emerges by 2010. Here, the combination of multiple tracer injection pulses with detailed numerical simulations proves to be a powerful tool in constraining both formation properties and how complex flow paths develop over time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

SIMPLIFIED PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR CO₂ SEQUESTRATION PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT RESEARCH TOPICAL REPORT ON TASK #3 STATISTICAL LEARNING BASED MODELS

We compare two approaches for building a statistical proxy model (metamodel) for CO₂ geologic sequestration from the results of full-physics compositional simulations. The first approach involves a classical Box-Behnken or Augmented Pairs experimental design with a quadratic polynomial response surface. The second approach used a space-filling maxmin Latin Hypercube sampling or maximum entropy design with the choice of five different meta-modeling techniques: quadratic polynomial, kriging with constant and quadratic trend terms, multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and additivity and variance stabilization (AVAS). Simulations results for CO₂ injection into a reservoir-caprock system with 9 design variables (and 97 samples) were used to generate the data for developing the proxy models. The fitted models were validated with using an independent data set and a cross-validation approach for three different performance metrics: total storage efficiency, CO₂ plume radius and average reservoir pressure. The Box-Behnken–quadratic polynomial metamodel performed the best, followed closely by the maximin LHS–kriging metamodel.

Mishra, Srikanta↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sedimentary Geothermal Resources in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Texas

The objectives of this project were to (1) perform a literature review of sedimentary geothermal resources, (2) identify data sources and develop data-collection methodologies that characterize selected resources, (3) screen sedimentary basins and formations for sedimentary geothermal potential, and (4) evaluate the technical feasibility of one or more selected locations. Numerous publications have characterized geothermal resources within sedimentary basins. A literature search reviewed publications describing resources located in Colorado, Louisiana, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. The most attractive resources have high temperature gradients, low drilling costs, and reservoir permeabilities greater than 10 millidarcies (mD). Prospects in Colorado, Nevada, Texas, and Utah exhibit attractive characteristics and were chosen for further analysis. Sedimentary resources in Nevada and Utah are most attractive, followed by tested resources in Texas and untested resources in Colorado. The identified resources in Wyoming and Louisiana had lower geothermal gradients and were not evaluated. Reservoir modeling and techno-economic analysis were performed at Marys River Basin–North in Nevada. Geothermal energy production at this location is expected to have a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) ranging between 10 and 20 cents/kWh. Additional work may result in lower LCOE estimates at this location and at other attractive prospects in these three regions. The Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system of eastern Nevada and western Utah includes a lower carbonate aquifer unit, which has the potential for hosting both conduction- and convection-dominated geothermal systems. Mapping has identified lateral thickness variability expressed as a roughly 120–150-km-wide central corridor, which hosts the thickest and most continuous formations and extends from near Las Vegas north to the Idaho border. Purchase and analysis of privately held legacy seismic data could potentially compensate for the lack of sufficient data documenting measured depth to the lower carbonate aquifer unit. Multiple orogenies, extension episodes, and intrusive events have deformed and displaced the target formations of the lower carbonate aquifer unit. This structural complexity and potential for dipping reservoirs emphasizes the need for detailed geological, geophysical, and reservoir modeling. Heat flow within three Colorado sedimentary basins reviewed as part of this study was calculated in targeted studies by the Colorado Geologic Survey and Colorado School of Mines. These calculations are based on bottom-hole temperature data sets with significant limitations and some variability but produce values consistently higher than the global continental average of 65 mW/m2 for all three basins. Heat flow in the Raton Basin is the highest; however, permeability measurements from specific sedimentary formations with high heat flow have not been obtained. Promising formations for sedimentary geothermal systems were found in all three regions studied—Nevada-Utah, Colorado, and Texas. The next steps for developing sedimentary geothermal resources vary due to differences in available data and resource uncertainties. Additional scopes of work are recommended for identified basins in these three regions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Modeling background radiation using geochemical data: A case study in and around Cameron, Arizona

Not Available

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

DECOVALEX-2015: an international collaboration for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems

Here, an important part of the performance and safety assessment of disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel in deep geological formations is to evaluate the impact of the coupled effects of mechanical deformation, fluid and gas flow through the repository, and thermal loading from the decaying waste. It was recognized early on in safety and performance assessments conducted for geologic disposal sites that to be able to conduct such an evaluation, there was a need to rigorously enhance the theoretical background and to develop models capable of simulating coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes. More recently, chemical processes have also been added to enable the study of fully coupled THMC processes in geosystems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

3D orthorhombic earth model effects on seismic source characterization

Most earth materials are anisotropic with regard to seismic wave-speeds, especially materials such as shales, or where oriented fractures are present. However, the base assumption for many numerical simulations is to treat earth materials as isotropic media. This is done for simplicity, the apparent weakness of anisotropy in the far field, and the lack of well-characterized anisotropic material properties for input into numerical simulations. One approach for addressing the higher complexity of actual geologic regions is to model the material as an orthorhombic medium. We have developed an explicit time-domain, finite-difference (FD) algorithm for simulating three-dimensional (3D) elastic wave propagation in a heterogeneous orthorhombic medium. The objective of this research is to investigate the errors and biases that result from modeling a non-isotropic medium as an isotropic medium. This is done by computing “observed data” by using synthetic, anisotropic simulations with the assumption of an orthorhombic, anisotropic earth model. Green’s functions for an assumed isotropic earth model are computed and then used an inversion designed to estimate moment tensors with the “observed” data. One specific area of interest is how shear waves, which are introduced in an anisotropic model even for an isotropic explosion, affect the characterization of seismic sources when isotropic earth assumptions are made. This work is done in support of the modeling component of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), a series of underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1967

On the thermal history of the moon.

Moon thermal history investigated using thermal model, comparing results with astrophysical and geological evidence including melting and fluid convection effects

MATHEMATICAL MODEL↗

NASA NTRS2020

Evidence for a Stratified Upper Mantle Preserved within the South Pole - Aitken Basin

The evolution and compositional structure of the lunar mantle has been extensively modeled but insufficiently constrained by observations. Here, we identify and characterize mantle materials exposed by the Moon's largest impact basin to better understand the composition, stratigraphy, and evolution of the upper mantle. The vast South Pole-Aitken Basin (SPA) exhibits a broad, crescent-shaped thorium and potassium distribution. These incompatible elements are predicted to be concentrated in the dregs of the lunar magma ocean during end-stage crystallization. Through consideration of basin formation models convolved with subsequent geologic evolution, we demonstrate that the distribution and implied stratigraphy of Th- and K-bearing materials across SPA are consistent with an upper mantle ejecta origin. The most pristine exposures of these materials are confined to northwest SPA and also exhibit elevated Ti and Fe (relative to the farside highlands) in association with a gabbronoritic mineralogy. This is consistent with latestage magma ocean assemblages predicted by petrologic models. In contrast, SPA impact melt derived from greater depths is associated with a low-Ca pyroxene-dominated assemblage. Together, these compositional patterns are evidence for a stratified ancient upper mantle. Importantly, the incompatible-element-enriched, ilmenite-bearing ferroan gabbronoritic cumulates evidently had not participated in gravitational overturn at the time of SPA formation. Contrary to recent hypotheses invoking nearside sequestration of incompatible elements to explain hemispherical differences in crustal building and volcanic resurfacing, it follows that incompatible elements were globally distributed in the magma ocean at the time of SPA formation.

Lunar dichotomy↗

DOE OSTI2022

Basin and Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy: Exploration Data

This data package includes exploration material from the Basin & Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy [in Hidden Systems] project (BRIDGE), which is part of a broader initiative to advance the exploration of hidden geothermal resources in the Basin & Range Province of the western U.S. Data modalities include a helicopter-borne time-domain electromagnetic survey, magnetotellurics, 2-meter temperature measurements, ground-based gravity and legacy aeromagnetic surveys, geochemistry, geologic mapping, LiDAR analysis, 3D models, associated geospatial data, and a bibliography of existing data and references utilized in prospect characterization and conceptual modeling. Key files are in CSV, Geosoft, and Geotools formats. Please refer to READMEs for dataset-specific information. Where applicable, acquisition data and inversion models for a particular prospect or area of interest are organized separately. This BRIDGE data package is the product of a collaboration led by Sandia National Laboratories with partners from Geologica Geothermal Group, Inc., the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office, and consultants Steven Sewell (Australis Geoscience Ltd) and William Cumming (Cumming Geoscience). The project's areas of interest (AOIs) are based off priority areas of interest in the southwestern portion of the Nevada Play Fairway map, distribution across tectonic provinces, accessibility, and the project team's extensive experience in the region. AOIs cover about a dozen basins that include unexplored prospects, partially explored prospects, and some developed analogue resources that provide validation cases. Many unexplored and partially explored prospects are on U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) land, though adjacent lands are included as well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2025)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign (SFWST) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two priorities for SFWST are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 associated with the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-25SN01030407) level 3 milestone, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework (FY2025) (M3SF-25SN010304072). This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF-25SN01030408), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-25SN01030409), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-25SN01030410). This report builds on developments reported in previous GDSA Framework milestones, particularly M3SF-24SN010304072.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2024)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS1981

A proposal to conduct a Caribbean plate project involving the application of space technology to the study of Caribbean geology

The Caribbean plate project is designed to improve current understanding of geological resources and geological hazards within the Caribbean region. Models of mineral occurrence and genesis (including energy resources) on a regional scale, which contribute to nonrenewable resource investigations. Models of lithospheric stress and strain on a regional scale, which contribute to forecasting geological hazards such as earthquakes and major volcanic eruptions are developed. Geological information is synthesize, and research tools provided by space technology the study of the Earth's crust are used. The project was organized in a thematic fashion, to focus on specific geological aspects of the Caribbean plate which are considered to be key factors in developing the types of models described. The project adopts a synoptic perspective in seeking to characterize the three dimensional structure, composition, state of stress, and evolution of the entire Caribbean plate. Geological information derived from analysis of space acquired data is combined with information provided by conventional methods to obtain insight into the structure, composition, and evolution of the Earth's crust. In addition, very long baseline interferometry and laser ranging techniques, which are also based upon the use of space technology, obtain information concerning crustal motion that, in turn, provides insight into the distribution and localization of crustal stress.

Wadge, G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Relating storm-snow avalanche instabilities to data collected from the Differential Emissivity Imaging Disdrometer (DEID)

Storm-snow avalanches are challenging to forecast due to complex alpine terrain and during rapidly changing weather conditions. They can result in loss of lives and significant economic impact. We describe how a new device that continuously measures with high-frequency snowflake mass, size, density, and type, the Differential Emissivity Imaging Disdrometer (DEID), and show how the DEID can be used to aid avalanche forecasting when coupled with a storm-snow stability model. DEID measurements of snow accumulation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow density obtained during seventeen storms taken at the mid-Collins Snow-Study Plot at Alta Ski Area in Utah's Central Wasatch mountain range during winter 2020–2021 show excellent agreement with infrequent manual measurements. Additionally, two new variables, the Shape Density Index (SDI) and Complexity, are proposed and used to classify snowflake habit and estimate storm-snow shear strength. We illustrate how these DEID-derived data can be used to identify layers of concern in the storm snow such as density inversions, in real-time without digging snow pits. Furthermore, the DEID-data are used to run four variations of the SNOw Slope Stability model (SNOSS) for the storms investigated. The results are evaluated with data collected from tilt-board tests, infrasound measurements, and visual observations of avalanches. For a total fourteen storms analyzed, the DEID-driven SNOSS-modeled minimum stability index predicts the general stability of the storm-snow as indicated by observed avalanches, both natural and of unknown cause. Finally, the results provide a promising approach for nowcasting instabilities within storm-snow layers with a single instrument.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗