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NASA NTRS2001

Trends in the Length of the Southern Ocean Sea Ice Season: 1979-1999

Satellite data can be used to observe the sea ice distribution around the continent of Antarctica on a daily basis and hence to determine how many days a year have sea ice at each location. This has been done for each of the 21 years 1979-1999. Mapping the trends in these data over the 21-year period reveals a detailed pattern of changes in the length of the sea ice season around Antarctica. Most of the Ross Sea ice cover has undergone a lengthening of the sea ice season, whereas most of the Amundsen Sea ice cover and almost the entire Bellingshausen Sea ice cover have undergone a shortening of the sea ice season. Results around the rest of the continent, including in the Weddell Sea, are more mixed, but overall, more of the Southern Ocean experienced a lengthening of the sea ice season than a shortening. For instance, the area experiencing a lengthening of the sea ice season by at least 1 day per year is 5.8 x 10(exp 6) sq km, whereas the area experiencing a shortening of the sea ice season by at least 1 day per year is less than half that, at 2.8 x 10(exp 6) sq km. This contrasts sharply with what is happened over the same period in the Arctic, where, overall, there has been some depletion of the ice cover, including shortened sea ice seasons and decreased ice extents.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Variability of Antarctic Sea Ice 1979-1998

The principal characteristics of the variability of Antarctic sea ice cover as previously described from satellite passive-microwave observations are also evident in a systematically-calibrated and analyzed data set for 20.2 years (1979-1998). The total Antarctic sea ice extent (concentration > 15 %) increased by 13,440 +/- 4180 sq km/year (+1.18 +/- 0.37%/decade). The area of sea ice within the extent boundary increased by 16,960 +/- 3,840 sq km/year (+1.96 +/- 0.44%/decade). Regionally, the trends in extent are positive in the Weddell Sea (1.5 +/- 0.9%/decade), Pacific Ocean (2.4 +/- 1.4%/decade), and Ross (6.9 +/- 1.1 %/decade) sectors, slightly negative in the Indian Ocean (-1.5 +/- 1.8%/decade, and strongly negative in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector (-9.5 +/- 1.5%/decade). For the entire ice pack, small ice increases occur in all seasons with the largest increase during autumn. On a regional basis, the trends differ season to season. During summer and fall, the trends are positive or near zero in all sectors except the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. During winter and spring, the trends are negative or near zero in all sectors except the Ross Sea, which has positive trends in all seasons. Components of interannual variability with periods of about 3 to 5 years are regionally large, but tend to counterbalance each other in the total ice pack. The interannual variability of the annual mean sea-ice extent is only 1.6% overall, compared to 5% to 9% in each of five regional sectors. Analysis of the relation between regional sea ice extents and spatially-averaged surface temperatures over the ice pack gives an overall sensitivity between winter ice cover and temperature of -0.7% change in sea ice extent per K. For summer, some regional ice extents vary positively with temperature and others negatively. The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice cover is counter to the observed decreases in the Arctic. It is also qualitatively consistent with the counterintuitive prediction of a global atmospheric-ocean model of increasing sea ice around Antarctica with climate warming due to the stabilizing effects of increased snowfall on the Southern Ocean.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2004

Onset of Convection in Ice I with Composite Newtonian and Non-Newtonian Rheology: Application to the Icy Galilean Satellites

Ice I exhibits a complex rheology at temperature and pressure conditions appropriate for the interiors of the ice I shells of Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto. We use numerical methods and existing parameterizations of the critical Rayleigh number to determine the conditions required to trigger convection in an ice I shell with the stress-, temperature- and grain size- dependent rheology measured in laboratory experiments by Goldsby and Kohlstedt [2001]. The critical Rayleigh number depends on the ice grain size and the amplitude and wavelength of temperature perturbation issued to an initially conductive ice I shell. If the shells have an assumed uniform grain size less than 0.4 mm, deformation during initial plume growth is accommodated by Newtonian volume diffusion. If the ice grain size is between 0.4 mm and 3 cm, deformation during plume growth is accommodated by weakly non-Newtonian grain boundary sliding, where the critical ice shell thickness for convection depends on the amplitude of temperature perturbation to the _0.5 power. If the ice grain size exceeds 2 cm, convection can not occur in the ice I shells of the Galilean satellites regardless of the amplitude or wavelength of temperature perturbation. If the grain size in a convecting ice I shell evolves to effective values greater than 2 cm, convection will cease. If the ice shell has a grain size large enough to permit flow by dislocation creep, the ice is too stiff to permit convection, even in the thickest possible ice I shell. Consideration of the composite rheology implies that estimates of the grain size in the satellites and knowledge of their initial thermal states are required when judging the convective instability of their ice I shells.

Barr, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Forces Generated by High Velocity Impact of Ice on a Rigid Structure

Tests were conducted to measure the impact forces generated by cylindrical ice projectiles striking a relatively rigid target. Two types of ice projectiles were used, solid clear ice and lower density fabricated ice. Three forms of solid clear ice were tested: single crystal, poly-crystal, and "rejected" poly-crystal (poly-crystal ice in which defects were detected during inspection.) The solid ice had a density of approximately 56 lb/cu ft (0.9 gm/cu cm). A second set of test specimens, termed "low density ice" was manufactured by molding shaved ice into a cylindrical die to produce ice with a density of approximately 40 lb/cu ft (0.65 gm/cu cm). Both the static mechanical characteristics and the crystalline structure of the ice were found to have little effect on the observed transient response. The impact forces generated by low density ice projectiles, which had very low mechanical strength, were comparable to those of full density solid ice. This supports the hypothesis that at a velocity significantly greater than that required to produce fracture in the ice, the mechanical properties become relatively insignificant, and the impact forces are governed by the shape and mass of the projectile.

Pereira, J. Michael↗

NASA NTRS2011

Recent Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet as Seen from Space

Many changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet have been reported in the recent scientific literature and have been attributed to various responses of the ice sheet due to regional (and global) warming. Because melting of the ice sheet would contribute approximately 7 m to sea-level rise, the lives and habitat of hundreds of millions of people worldwide would be directly and indirectly affected if continued ice-sheet melting occurs. As mean-annual global temperatures have increased, there has been an increasing focus on studying the Greenland Ice Sheet using available satellite data, and numerous expeditions have been undertaken. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 C to 0.72+/-0.10 C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to more extensive melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue of increasing concern to billions of people worldwide. The surface temperature of the ice sheet has been studied in even greater detail using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data in the six individual drainage basins as well as for the ice sheet as a whole. Surface temperature trends in the decade of the 2000s have not been strong, according to the MODIS measurements. In addition to surface-temperature increases over the last few decades as measured by AVHRR, other changes have been observed such as accelerated movement of many of Greenland's outlet glaciers and sudden draining of supraglacial lakes. Decreasing mass of the ice sheet since (at least) 2002 has been measured using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, along with an build-up of ice at the higher elevations and a decrease of ice at the lower elevations as measured using airborne Lidar and Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data. The seminar will address the above issues using a variety of NASA satellite data and ground observations.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Aerodynamic Classification of Swept-Wing Ice Accretion

The continued design, certification and safe operation of swept-wing airplanes in icing conditions rely on the advancement of computational and experimental simulation methods for higher fidelity results over an increasing range of aircraft configurations and performance, and icing conditions. The current stateof- the-art in icing aerodynamics is mainly built upon a comprehensive understanding of two-dimensional geometries that does not currently exist for fundamentally three-dimensional geometries such as swept wings. The purpose of this report is to describe what is known of iced-swept-wing aerodynamics and to identify the type of research that is required to improve the current understanding. Following the method used in a previous review of iced-airfoil aerodynamics, this report proposes a classification of swept-wing ice accretion into four groups based upon unique flowfield attributes. These four groups are: ice roughness, horn ice, streamwise ice and spanwise-ridge ice. In the case of horn ice it is shown that a further subclassification of "nominally 3D" or "highly 3D" horn ice may be necessary. For all of the proposed ice-shape classifications, relatively little is known about the three-dimensional flowfield and even less about the effect of Reynolds number and Mach number on these flowfields. The classifications and supporting data presented in this report can serve as a starting point as new research explores swept-wing aerodynamics with ice shapes. As further results are available, it is expected that these classifications will need to be updated and revised.

Diebold, Jeff M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Aerodynamic Classification of Swept-Wing Ice Accretion

The continued design, certification and safe operation of swept-wing airplanes in icing conditions rely on the advancement of computational and experimental simulation methods for higher fidelity results over an increasing range of aircraft configurations and performance, and icing conditions. The current state-of-the-art in icing aerodynamics is mainly built upon a comprehensive understanding of two-dimensional geometries that does not currently exist for fundamentally three-dimensional geometries such as swept wings. The purpose of this report is to describe what is known of iced-swept-wing aerodynamics and to identify the type of research that is required to improve the current understanding. Following the method used in a previous review of iced-airfoil aerodynamics, this report proposes a classification of swept-wing ice accretion into four groups based upon unique flowfield attributes. These four groups are: ice roughness, horn ice, streamwise ice and spanwise-ridge ice. In the case of horn ice it is shown that a further subclassification of nominally 3D or highly 3D horn ice may be necessary. For all of the proposed ice-shape classifications, relatively little is known about the three-dimensional flowfield and even less about the effect of Reynolds number and Mach number on these flowfields. The classifications and supporting data presented in this report can serve as a starting point as new research explores swept-wing aerodynamics with ice shapes. As further results are available, it is expected that these classifications will need to be updated and revised.

Diebold, Jeff M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Antarctic Ice Shelf Potentially Stabilized by Export of Meltwater in Surface River

Meltwater stored in ponds and crevasses can weaken and fracture ice shelves, triggering their rapid disintegration. This ice-shelf collapse results in an increased flux of ice from adjacent glaciers and ice streams, thereby raising sea level globally. However, surface rivers forming on ice shelves could potentially export stored meltwater and prevent its destructive effects. Here we present evidence for persistent active drainage networks-interconnected streams, ponds and rivers-on the Nansen Ice Shelf in Antarctica that export a large fraction of the ice shelf's meltwater into the ocean. We find that active drainage has exported water off the ice surface through waterfalls and dolines for more than a century. The surface river terminates in a 130-metre-wide waterfall that can export the entire annual surface melt over the course of seven days. During warmer melt seasons, these drainage networks adapt to changing environmental conditions by remaining active for longer and exporting more water. Similar networks are present on the ice shelf in front of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, but other systems, such as on the Larsen C and Amery Ice Shelves, retain surface water at present. The underlying reasons for export versus retention remain unclear. Nonetheless our results suggest that, in a future warming climate, surface rivers could export melt off the large ice shelves surrounding Antarctica-contrary to present Antarctic ice-sheet models, which assume that meltwater is stored on the ice surface where it triggers ice-shelf disintegration.

Bell, Robin E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Analysis of the Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE) with Ice Crystal Cloud Ingestion at Simulated Altitudes: Public Version

The Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE), a research version of a turbofan engine that never entered production, was tested in the NASA Propulsion System Laboratory (PSL), an altitude test facility at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL is a facility that is equipped with water spray bars capable of producing an ice cloud consisting of ice particles, having a controlled particle diameter and concentration in the air flow. In preparation for testing of the HURE, numerical analysis of flow and ice particle thermodynamics was performed on the compression system of the turbofan engine to predict operating conditions that could potentially result in a risk of ice accretion due to ice crystal ingestion. The results of those analyses formed the basis of the test matrix. The goal of the test matrix was to have ice accrete in two regions of the compression system: region one, which consists of the fan-stator through the inlet guide vane (IGV), and region two which is the first stator within the high pressure compressor. The predictive analyses were performed with the mean line compressor flow modeling code (COMDES-MELT) which includes an ice particle model. Together these comprise a one-dimensional icing tool. The HURE engine was tested in PSL with the ice cloud over the range of operating conditions of altitude, ambient temperature, simulated flight Mach number, and fan speed with guidance from the analytical predictions. The engine was fitted with video cameras at strategic locations within the engine compression system flow path where ice was predicted to accrete, in order to visually confirm ice accretion when it occurred. In addition, traditional compressor instrumentation such as total pressure and temperature probes, static pressure taps, and metal temperature thermocouples were installed in targeted areas where the risk of ice accretion was expected. The current research focuses on the analysis of the data that was obtained after testing the HURE engine in PSL with ice crystal ingestion. The computational method was enhanced by computing key parameters through the fan-stator at multiple spanwise locations, in order to increase the fidelity with the current mean-line method. In addition, other sources of heat (non-adiabatic walls) were suspected to be the cause of accretion near the splitter-lip and shroud. Since there were no thermocouples near the splitter, a simple order of magnitude heat transfer model was implemented to estimate the wall temperature. Future analyses will require a higher fidelity thermal analysis of the compression system metal walls to accurately calculate the total heat flux to the ice particle. For many data points analyzed, there were differences between the thermodynamic system model and the measured test data that may partially be responsible for uncertainties with the results of the current analyses.

Turbomachinery↗

NASA NTRS1995

(abstract) A Polarimetric Model for Effects of Brine Infiltrated Snow Cover and Frost Flowers on Sea Ice Backscatter

A polarimetric scattering model is developed to study effects of snow cover and frost flowers with brine infiltration on thin sea ice. Leads containing thin sea ice in the Artic icepack are important to heat exchange with the atmosphere and salt flux into the upper ocean. Surface characteristics of thin sea ice in leads are dominated by the formation of frost flowers with high salinity. In many cases, the thin sea ice layer is covered by snow, which wicks up brine from sea ice due to capillary force. Snow and frost flowers have a significant impact on polarimetric signatures of thin ice, which needs to be studied for accessing the retrieval of geophysical parameters such as ice thickness. Frost flowers or snow layer is modeled with a heterogeneous mixture consisting of randomly oriented ellipsoids and brine infiltration in an air background. Ice crystals are characterized with three different axial lengths to depict the nonspherical shape. Under the covering multispecies medium, the columinar sea-ice layer is an inhomogeneous anisotropic medium composed of ellipsoidal brine inclusions preferentially oriented in the vertical direction in an ice background. The underlying medium is homogeneous sea water. This configuration is described with layered inhomogeneous media containing multiple species of scatterers. The species are allowed to have different size, shape, and permittivity. The strong permittivity fluctuation theory is extended to account for the multispecies in the derivation of effective permittivities with distributions of scatterer orientations characterized by Eulerian rotation angles. Polarimetric backscattering coefficients are obtained consistently with the same physical description used in the effective permittivity calculation. The mulitspecies model allows the inclusion of high-permittivity species to study effects of brine infiltrated snow cover and frost flowers on thin ice. The results suggest that the frost cover with a rough interface significantly increases the backscatter from thin saline ice and the polarimetric signature becomes closer to the isotropic characteristics. The snow cover also modifies polarimetric signatures of thin sea ice depending on the snow mixture and the interface condition.

thin sea ice radar backscatter frost flowers snow ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The effects of preconditioning on the summer sea ice thickness evolution during MOSAiC

The central role of sea ice within the Arctic climate system is clear, as is the importance of sea ice properties in the Arctic Ocean’s evolution and response to climate change. Less clear is how the history of the sea ice floe (in winter and spring) precondition the summer thickness evolution. Accurate accounting for the collective influences of processes that affect the summer sea ice thickness evolution is necessary for determining sea ice survivability and the rate of future sea ice loss. In this study, we use a satellite-derived sea ice parcel database co-located with the MOSAiC floe to explore the factors that precondition the summer sea ice thickness evolution. First. we compare the >500 collocated satellite-tracked sea ice parcels that intersected the MOSAiC drift track with observations to evaluate the satellite-derived surface energy budget and surface properties, finding agreement with correlations >0.9. Approximately 60% of the satellite tracked parcels survived the summer melt season. Secondly, we explore the spread in sea ice thickness and survivability across the satellite-tracked parcels, finding contributions from spring/summer surface albedo evolution, surface temperature, clouds, and parcel sea ice concentration. The satellite tracked sea ice parcel analysis provides insights into the spatial coherence of the factors that influence sea ice thickness evolution.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Models

Six Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-Arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004-2008); airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001-2009); ice draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea, and the Beaufort Sea (1992-2008) and from submarines (1975-2000); and drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev, and East Siberian marginal seas (1982-1986) and coastal stations (1998-2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than approximately 2 mand underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about approximately 2m. In the regions of flat immobile landfast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25-30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than 4 times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generating ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System models.

sea ice↗

NASA NTRS2015

High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection: Part II. Evaluation of Microphysical Pathways in Updraft Parcel Simulations

The aeronautics industry has established that a threat to aircraft is posed by atmospheric conditions of substantial ice water content (IWC) where equivalent radar reflectivity (Ze) does not exceed 20-30 dBZ and supercooled water is not present; these conditions are encountered almost exclusively in the vicinity of deep convection. Part 1 (Fridlind et al., 2015) of this two-part study presents in situ measurements of such conditions sampled by Airbus in three tropical regions, commonly near 11 km and -43 C, and concludes that the measured ice particle size distributions are broadly consistent with past literature with profiling radar measurements of Z(sub e) and mean Doppler velocity obtained within monsoonal deep convection in one of the regions sampled. In all three regions, the Airbus measurements generally indicate variable IWC that often exceeds 2 gm (exp -3) with relatively uniform mass median area-equivalent diameter (MMD(sub eq) of 200-300 micrometers. Here we use a parcel model with size-resolved microphysics to investigate microphysical pathways that could lead to such conditions. Our simulations indicate that homogeneous freezing of water drops produces a much smaller ice MMD(sub eq) than observed, and occurs only in the absence of hydrometeor gravitational collection for the conditions considered. Development of a mass mode of ice aloft that overlaps with the measurements requires a substantial source of small ice particles at temperatures of about -10 C or warmer, which subsequently grow from water vapor. One conceivable source in our simulation framework is Hallett-Mossop ice production; another is abundant concentrations of heterogeneous ice freezing nuclei acting together with copious shattering of water drops upon freezing. Regardless of the production mechanism, the dominant mass modal diameter of vapor-grown ice is reduced as the ice-multiplication source strength increases and as competition for water vapor increases. Both mass and modal diameter are reduced by entrainment and by increasing aerosol concentrations. Weaker updrafts lead to greater mass and larger modal diameters of vapor-grown ice, the opposite of expectations regarding lofting of larger ice particles in stronger updrafts. While stronger updrafts do loft more dense ice particles produced primarily by raindrop freezing, we find that weaker updrafts allow the warm rain process to reduce competition for diffusional growth of the less dense ice expected to persist in convective outflow.

Reflectivity↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2): Science Requirements, Concept, and Implementation

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission used laser altimetry measurements to determine changes in elevations of glaciers and ice sheets, as well as sea ice thickness distribution. These measurements have provided important information on the response of the cryosphere (Earths frozen surfaces) to changes in atmosphere and ocean condition. ICESat operated from 2003-2009 and provided repeat altimetry measurements not only to the cryosphere scientific community but also to the ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric scientific communities. The conclusive assessment of significant ongoing rapid changes in the Earths ice cover, in part supported by ICESat observations, has strengthened the need for sustained, high accuracy, repeat observations similar to what was provided by the ICESat mission. Following recommendations from the National Research Council for an ICESat follow-on mission, the ICESat-2 mission is now under development for planned launch in 2018. The primary scientific aims of the ICESat-2 mission are to continue measurements of sea ice freeboard and ice sheet elevation to determine their changes at scales from outlet glaciers to the entire ice sheet, and from 10s of meters to the entire polar oceans for sea ice freeboard. ICESat carried a single beam profiling laser altimeter that produced approximately 70 m diameter footprints on the surface of the Earth at approximately 150 m along-track intervals. In contrast, ICESat-2 will operate with three pairs of beams, each pair separated by about 3 km across-track with a pair spacing of 90 m. Each of the beams will have a nominal 17 m diameter footprint with an along-track sampling interval of 0.7 m. The differences in the ICESat-2 measurement concept are a result of overcoming some limitations associated with the approach used in the ICESat mission. The beam pair configuration of ICESat-2 allows for the determination of local cross-track slope, a significant factor in measuring elevation change for the outlet glaciers surrounding the Greenland and Antarctica coasts. The multiple beam pairs also provide improved spatial coverage. The dense spatial sampling eliminates along-track measurement gaps, and the small footprint diameter is especially useful for sea surface height measurements in the often narrow leads needed for sea ice freeboard and ice thickness retrievals. The ICESat-2 instrumentation concept uses a low energy 532 nm (green) laser in conjunction with single-photon sensitive detectors to measure range. Combining ICESat-2 data with altimetry data collected since the start of the ICESat mission in 2003, such as Operation IceBridge and ESAs CryoSat-2, will yield a 15+ year record of changes in ice sheet elevation and sea ice thickness. ICESat-2 will also provide information of mountain glacier and ice cap elevations changes, land and vegetation heights, inland water elevations, sea surface heights, and cloud layering and optical thickness.

ICESat-2↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the engines operating point to a region of lower risk through the modulation of available control actuators while maintaining the desired engine thrust output. Follow-on work will assess the feasibility and effectiveness of such control-based mitigation strategies.

engine control↗

NASA NTRS2017

Variability and Trends in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Results from Different Techniques

Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at negative 3.88 percent decade and negative 4.37 percent decade, respectively, compared to an average of negative 4.36 percent decade and negative 4.57 percent decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

engine control↗

NASA NTRS2018

Melt Pond Conditions on Declining Arctic Sea Ice Over 1979-2016: Model Development, Validation, and Results

A melt pond (MP) distribution equation has been developed and incorporated into the Marginal Ice-Zone Modeling and Assimilation System to simulate Arctic MPs and sea ice over 1979-2016. The equation differs from previous MP models and yet benefits from previous studies for MP parameterizations as well as a range of observations for model calibration. Model results show higher magnitude of MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction in most of the Canada Basin and the East Siberian Sea and lower magnitude in the central Arctic. This is consistent with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations, evaluated with Measurements of Earth Data for Environmental Analysis (MEDEA) data, and closely related to top ice melt per unit ice area. The model simulates a decrease in the total Arctic sea ice volume and area, owing to a strong increase in bottom and lateral ice melt. The sea ice decline leads to a strong decrease in the total MP volume and area. However, the Arctic-averaged MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction show weak, statistically insignificant downward trends, which is linked to the fact that MP water drainage per unit ice area is increasing. It is also linked to the fact that MP volume and area decrease relatively faster than ice area. This suggests that overall the actual MP conditions on ice have changed little in the past decades as the ice cover is retreating in response to Arctic warming, thus consistent with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations that show no clear trend in MP area fraction over 2000-2011.

sea ice↗