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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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767 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Uncovering the linear boron environment in Na 3 BP 2 through solid-state 11 B NMR spectroscopy

Boron-based compounds exhibit a wide range of structural diversity, with potential applications spanning organic and inorganic chemistry. Herein, we focus on the characterization of the linear boron-phosphorus unit P═B═P in Na 3 BP 2 using solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (ssNMR) spectroscopy and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. High-resolution 11 B ssNMR spectra were recorded at two fields, and key parameters such as chemical shift anisotropy (CSA), quadrupolar coupling constants (C Q ), and electric field gradient (EFG) tensors were extracted. The 11 B NMR results revealed a distinct chemical environment for the two-coordinate boron atom, with a CSA span (Ω) of 280 ppm and a C Q of 3.0 MHz. These values were further validated through periodic plane-wave DFT calculations, which showed good agreement with experimental results. The obtained spectral parameters are compared to other linear boron units, such as the BO 2 motif, providing a broader context for understanding boron coordination in inorganic compounds. This work expands the body of NMR knowledge on boron-containing materials, particularly for linear boron motifs. The findings contribute to the growing field of boron chemistry and its potential applications in advanced materials.

Porter, Andrew P. [Ames Laboratory (AMES), Ames, I↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing cathode composites with conductive alignment synergy for solid-state batteries

Enhancing transport and chemomechanical properties in cathode composites is crucial for the performance of solid-state batteries. Our study introduces the filler-aligned structured thick (FAST) electrode, which notably improves mechanical strength and ionic/electronic conductivity in solid composite cathodes. The FAST electrode incorporates vertically aligned nanoconducting carbon nanotubes within an ion-conducting polymer electrolyte, creating a low-tortuosity electron/ion transport path while strengthening the electrode’s structure. This design not only mitigates recrystallization of the polymer electrolyte but also establishes a densified local electric field distribution and accelerates the migration of lithium ions. The FAST electrode showcases outstanding electrochemical performance with lithium iron phosphate as the active material, achieving a high capacity of 148.2 milliampere hours per gram at 0.2 C over 100 cycles with substantial material loading (49.3 milligrams per square centimeter). This innovative electrode design marks a remarkable stride in addressing the challenges of solid-state lithium metal batteries.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mitigating Hydrogen-Induced Degradation of Iridium Anodes in Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers

One promising method for reducing precious metal usage in proton exchange membrane water electrolysis is lowering iridium (Ir) loading at the anode. However, low-loading Ir catalysts often suffer from poor stability under high current densities. In this study, hydrogen (H2) crossover from the cathode to the anode is identified as a key degradation pathway. Temperature-programmed reduction confirms the reduction of IrO2 at 80 °C in a hydrogen environment, highlighting the vulnerability of IrO2-based catalysts to H2 exposure. To mitigate this effect, palladium (Pd) is introduced as an anode additive, acting as an H2 oxidation catalyst and mitigating IrO2 reduction. This protective role is verified by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy and in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy, showing significantly suppressed Ir dissolution at 80 °C under H2 flow when an O-covered Pd surface is present at oxygen evolution reaction potentials. Results from the current study identify a new strategy in improving activity and durability of catalysts in electrolyzers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polymer-assisted transfer of MBE-grown van der Waals materials

Molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) has been used to create high-quality, large-scale two-dimensional van der Waals (2D vdW) materials. However, due to the strong adhesion between the substrate and deposited materials, the peel-off and dry transfer of MBE-grown vdW films onto other substrates has been challenging. This limits the study and use of MBE films for heterogeneous integration including stacked and twisted heterostructures. In this work, we develop a polymer-assisted dry transfer method and successfully perform full-film transfer of various MBE-grown 2D vdW materials including transition metal dichalcogenides (TMD), topological insulators (TI) and 2D magnets. In particular, we transfer air-sensitive 2D magnets, characterize their magnetic properties, and compare them with as-grown materials. The results show that the transfer technique does not degrade the magnetic properties, with the Curie temperature and hysteresis loops exhibiting similar behaviors after the transfer. Our results enable further development of heterogeneous integration of 2D vdW materials based on MBE growth.

Li, Ziling [The Ohio State University]↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Team Functioning in Long Term Space Missions Using Acoustic and Linguistic Measures

Maintaining optimal team functioning is critical for long-duration space exploration missions, yet traditional monitoring methods, such as self-reports and wearable sensors, often impose operational burdens or suffer from bias. This paper investigates a non-intrusive speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) framework to predict degradations in team functioning using data from the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using acoustic features, linguistic descriptors, and semantic embeddings, we evaluate static non-linear and temporal machine learning models to predict both objective (task accuracy) and subjective (self-reported efficacy and cohesion) team functioning outcomes. Results indicate that temporal models outperform static approaches, with prediction of objective task accuracy in Team Interaction Battery (TIB) improving from near chance to 71%. Self-reported outcomes, including team efficacy and cohesion, are predicted more reliably than task performance, achieving balanced accuracies of up to 85.56% and 78.12%, respectively, and are found to be most strongly associated with acoustic features. In a second interdependent task, the MMSEV–EVA, accuracies of up to 78% are achieved using temporal models with acoustic features. Furthermore, incorporating just 1–2 days of team-specific historical data systematically improved performance, and acoustic markers from informal pre-task interactions provided modest predictive gains. Finally, while automated preprocessing yielded viable accuracy, humancorrected data provided moderate performance gains, though transcription error rates did not significantly correlate with model performance. These findings highlight the potential of speech as a passive, high-fidelity monitoring tool for autonomous habitats.

Temporal modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Eddy Covariance Theory: A Review

Eddy covariance (EC), the gold standard for measuring ecosystem scale gas and heat exchanges, has transformed our understanding of the breathing of the biosphere, and thus global change biology. Despite numerous methodological improvements and insights gained from the technique, the community faces persistent challenges that have been present since the first EC measurements. Here, we review the theoretical developments underpinning EC. We present theoretical developments in four important areas that have relevance to EC measurements of the net ecosystem exchanges (NEE) of gases and heat from a single tower: (i) measuring the total vertical flux density, (ii) flux attenuation, (iii) coordinate rotations, and (iv) energy balance closure. Persistent problems with EC measurements, such as the inability to close the energy budget, led us to identify two priorities for revisiting the theory underlying: (i) sensible heat flux calculations, and (ii) constraining the mean vertical wind velocity. We present a framework for improved calculation of sensible heat flux derived from first principles of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics that considers coupled heat and mass transfer so that conservation of both is obeyed. These refinements are motivated by the need for unbiased measurements of energy and mass transfer between the land surface and atmosphere for ecosystem research and to validate satellite observations and land surface models.

ecosystem fluxes↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Crystallinity in Thermoplastic composites

Polymer matrix composites (PMCs) offer many benefits for the aerospace industry due to their potential for weight reduction when compared to metal or ceramic based materials. Most PMCs currently in flight use thermoset matrices, however, thermoplastic resins are being explored as alternatives due to their ability to be remelted, which is of particular interest due to the potential for in-situ repair and manufacturing required in space. Most thermoplastic resins are semicrystalline polymers. The properties of semicrystalline thermoplastics are largely influenced by their crystallinity, which can vary due to many factors including thermal treatments, environmental conditions, and mechanical deformation. Monitoring the crystallinity of thermoplastic composites is key to ensuring these materials reliably meet the high demands required by space exploration. This talk discusses the use of multiple techniques such as Polarized Light Optical Microscopy and Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy to characterize the crystallinity in various thermoplastic composites, including carbon fiber reinforced PMCs and novel bio-based Martian and Lunar regolith composites designed for in-situ manufacturing. This work aims to provide the fundamental data necessary to understand the effects of crystallinity on thermoplastic PMCs, which is key to advancing their use in space applications.

Thermoplastics↗
NASA NTRS2026

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

SODAs: sparse optimization for the discovery of differential and algebraic equations

Differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) integrate ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with algebraic constraints, providing a fundamental framework for developing models of dynamical systems characterized by time-scale separation, conservation laws and physical constraints. While sparse optimization has revolutionized model development by allowing data-driven discovery of parsimonious models from a library of possible equations, existing approaches for dynamical systems assume DAEs can be reduced to ODEs by eliminating variables before model discovery. This assumption limits the applicability of such methods for DAE systems with unknown constraints and time scales. We introduce sparse optimization for differential-algebraic systems (SODAs), a data-driven method for the identification of DAEs in their explicit form. By discovering the algebraic and dynamic components sequentially without prior identification of the algebraic variables, this approach leads to a sequence of convex optimization problems. It has the advantage of discovering interpretable models that preserve the structure of the underlying physical system. To this end, SODAs improves since SODAs is singular numerical stability when handling high correlations between library terms, caused by near-perfect algebraic relationships, by iteratively refining the conditioning of the candidate library. We demonstrate the performance of our method on biological, mechanical and electrical systems, showcasing its robustness to noise in both simulated time series and real-time experimental data.

DAE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Economy Evaluation for Integrated ECLSS and Propulsion Architecture

As missions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) lengthen and extend to deep space, minimizing resupply needs becomes vital for sustaining crewed operations. Traditional life support systems depend on consumables resupplied from Earth, a method that is increasingly impractical for missions beyond LEO, such as lunar outposts or Mars transit. Long-duration missions require more efficient, autonomous systems that can recycle essential resources, particularly water and oxygen, to minimize the frequency and mass of resupply missions. The Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) is essential to such missions, with the International Space Station (ISS) serving as a testbed for advanced water recovery and partial oxygen recycling via physico-chemical methods. Yet, ECLSS and propulsion subsystems generally operate independently, despite overlapping requirements and potential areas for synergy. For instance, ECLSS byproducts, water, CO₂, and hydrogen, could be repurposed for propulsion, potentially reducing dedicated propellant mass and increasing overall system efficiency. One promising approach is to develop shared-resource architectures that integrate ECLSS with propulsion systems. This study examines the potential of such integration through the Sabatier CO₂ reduction process, focusing on water management as a key factor in system mass trade-offs. The Sabatier reaction produces water and methane from metabolic CO₂ and electrolytic hydrogen, partially closing the life support loop and providing methane, which could serve as a propellant. This integration could minimize waste, reduce resupply requirements, and enhance mission mass efficiency. A dynamic modeling framework will be used to simulate resource flows over long missions, capturing interactions between life support and propulsion. By comparing integrated versus separate system configurations, the study aims to quantify mass benefits and penalties, informing future habitat designs and trade studies for missions prioritizing autonomy and mass efficiency.

ECLSS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photon–photon chemical thermodynamics of frequency conversion processes in highly multimode systems

Abstract Frequency generation in highly multimode nonlinear optical systems is inherently a complex process, giving rise to an exceedingly convoluted landscape of evolution dynamics. While predicting and controlling the global conversion efficiencies in such nonlinear environments has long been considered impossible, here, we formally address this challenge even in scenarios involving a very large number of spatial modes. By utilizing fundamental notions from optical statistical mechanics, we develop a universal theoretical framework that effectively treats all frequency components as chemical reactants/products, capable of undergoing optical thermodynamic reactions facilitated by a variety of multi-wave mixing effects. These photon–photon reactions are governed by conservation laws that directly determine the optical temperatures and chemical potentials of the ensued chemical equilibria for each frequency species. In this context, we develop a comprehensive stoichiometric model and formally derive an expression that relates the chemical potentials to the optical stoichiometric coefficients, in a manner akin to atomic/molecular chemical reactions. This advancement unlocks new predictive capabilities that can facilitate the optimization of frequency generation in highly multimode photonic arrangements, surpassing the limitations of conventional schemes that rely exclusively on nonlinear optical dynamics. Notably, we identify a universal regime of Rayleigh–Jeans thermalization where an optical reaction at near-zero optical temperatures can promote the complete and entropically irreversible conversion of light to the fundamental mode at a target frequency. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical simulations in settings where second-harmonic generation, sum-frequency generation and four-wave mixing processes can manifest.

Optics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Influence of Powder Characteristics and Processing Methods on Creep Performance of Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressed SS316

The U.S. nuclear energy expansion goals are driving the demand for manufacturing routes that can rapidly produce large, complex, near net shape components. Powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PM HIP) is an advanced manufacturing technique that can be economically scaled-up, while alleviating the supply chain challenges that forging and casting face in terms of cost and lead time constraints. This makes PM-HIP a viable technology to aid and accelerate large-scale part manufacturing for nuclear applications. However, large-scale qualification and deployment of this technology require a thorough understanding of the influence of powder feedstock quality, powder handling history, hot isostatic pressing (HIP) parameters, and subsequent heat treatment on microstructural evolution and elevated temperature mechanical performance. The present work focusses on 316 austenitic stainless steel (SS316) which is most commonly used in high temperature environments for nuclear applications Results from this study show that PM HIPed SS316 meets ASME tensile requirements at room temperature and at elevated temperature. However, creep performance of PM-HIPed SS316 remains inferior to its wrought counterpart, demonstrating that tensile performance alone is not a reliable metric for long duration high temperature integrity. Further, this report delineates powder derived microstructural features that govern creep damage, with key evidences pointing to “microstructural inheritance” from gas atomized powder feedstocks. Commercial SS316 powders of varying chemical compositions and recycling histories were studies, and the results showed large differences in elemental segregation, oxide surface layers and secondary phase distributions. Multi-scale characterization revealed segregation of chromium, molybdenum, manganese and silicon at the boundaries and the precipitation of manganese-, silicon-, and molybdenum-oxides. During HIP consolidation, these surface oxides transform into decorated prior particle boundaries (PPBs) and grain boundary inclusions that persist through conventional post-HIP solution annealing treatment. The retained oxides in post-HIP microstructures were found to influence grain growth, precipitation behavior, and ultimately creep cavitation and fracture. Such post-HIP heat treatments are therefore limited by a complex trade-off between grain growth, and oxide coarsening which aggravate creep damage by acting as nucleation sites for cavities. The objective of this work is to establish an integrated processing–structure–property framework for PM-HIP 316 stainless steel by investigating the influence of powder feedstock characteristics in pre- and post-HIP processing as well as to understand the significance of post-HIP heat treatment on microstructural evolution and creep properties. The results from this report emphasize the significance of powder feedstock integrity in improving creep performance of PM-HIPed SS316, by highlight the effect of rapid solidification, elemental segregation, oxide formation and powder recycling on microstructural defect inheritance following HIP consolidation. Rather than considering HIP processing, solution annealing, and mechanical performance independently, this report treats powder production, HIP consolidation, post-HIP thermal processing, and creep deformation as interconnected stages within a continuous metallurgical process. The resulting framework will provide a scientific basis for developing feedstock engineering strategies capable of improving long-term reliability of PM-HIP stainless steels and accelerating their qualification for advanced nuclear applications.

Ajjarapu, Pavan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
NASA NTRS2026

Mass Economy Evaluation for Integrated ECLSS and Propulsion Architecture

As missions in low Earth orbit (LEO) lengthen and extend to deep space, minimizing resupply needs becomes vital for sustaining crewed operations. Traditional life support systems depend on consumables resupplied from Earth, a method that is increasingly impractical for missions beyond LEO, such as lunar outposts or Mars transit. Long-duration missions require more efficient, autonomous systems that can recycle essential resources, particularly water and oxygen, to minimize the frequency and mass of resupply missions. The Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) is essential to such missions, with the International Space Station (ISS) serving as a testbed for advanced water recovery and partial oxygen recycling via physico-chemical methods. Yet, ECLSS and propulsion subsystems generally operate independently, despite overlapping requirements and potential areas for synergy. For instance, ECLSS byproducts, water, CO 2 , and hydrogen, could be repurposed for propulsion, potentially reducing dedicated propellant mass and increasing overall system efficiency. One promising approach is to develop shared-resource architectures that integrate ECLSS with propulsion systems. This study examines the potential of such integration through the Sabatier CO₂ reduction process, focusing on water management as a key factor in system mass trade-offs. The Sabatier reaction produces water and methane from metabolic CO 2 and electrolytic hydrogen, partially closing the life support loop and providing methane, which could serve as a propellant. This integration could minimize waste, reduce resupply requirements, and enhance mission mass efficiency. A dynamic modeling framework will be used to simulate resource flows over long missions, capturing interactions between life support and propulsion. By comparing integrated versus separate system configurations, the study aims to quantify mass benefits and penalties, informing future habitat designs and trade studies for missions prioritizing autonomy and mass efficiency.

ECLSS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Λ polarization from vortex rings as the medium response for jet thermalization

We performed a systematic study on the formation of vorticity rings as the process for jet thermalization in the medium created in high-energy nuclear collisions. In this work, we expanded our previous analysis to a more realistic framework by considering noncentral events and fluctuations in the initial condition. We simulate the formation and evolution of the flow vortex structure in a relativistic viscous hydrodynamic model and study the sensitivity of the proposed “ring observable” (ℛ$^{𝑡}_{Λ}$) that can be measured experimentally through the polarization of Λ hyperons. We show that this observable is robust with respect to fluctuating initial conditions to capture the jet-induced vortex flow signal and further study its dependence on different model parameters, such as the jet's velocity, position, the fluid's shear viscosity, and the collision centrality. The proposed observable is associated with the formation of vorticity in a quark-gluon plasma, showing that the measurement of particle polarization can be a powerful tool to probe different properties of jet-medium interactions and to understand better the polarization induced by the transverse and longitudinal expansions of the medium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Open quantum system approach to inclusive jet production in heavy-ion collisions

We derive a factorization formula for inclusive jet production in heavy-ion collisions using the tools of Effective Field Theory (EFT). We show how physics at widely separated scales in this process can be systematically separated by matching to EFTs at successively lower virtualities. Owing to a strong scale separation, we recover a vacuum-like DGLAP evolution above the jet scale, while the additional low-energy scales induced by the medium effectively probe the internal structure of the jet. As a result, the cross section can be written as a series with an increasing number of subjets characterized by perturbative matching coefficients each of which is convolved with a distinct function. These functions encode broadening, medium-induced radiations as well as quantum interference such as the Landau-Pomeranchuk-Migdal effect and color coherence dynamics to all orders in perturbation theory. As a first application of this EFT framework, we investigate the case of an unresolved jet and show how the cross section can be factorized and fully separate the jet dynamics from the universal physics of the medium. To compare to the existing literature, we explicitly compute the medium jet function at next-to-leading order in the coupling and leading order in medium opacity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mitigation of polysulfide shuttle effect in Li-S batteries through catalytic disproportionation reaction

Polysulfides are poorly retained within porous cathodes and readily diffuse into the electrolyte over time, leading to the well-known shuttle effect that undermines the reversibility of Li-S batteries. Here, in this study, we demonstrate that catalytic disproportionation of polysulfides provides an effective pathway to suppress this process by rapidly converting dissolved species into solid sulfur and sulfides, thereby preventing their migration into the electrolyte. Fundamentally, the sluggish kinetics of sulfur redox reactions are responsible for the accumulation and redistribution of soluble polysulfides in the bulk electrolyte. By accelerating these kinetics, catalyzed disproportionation not only confines sulfur within the conductive cathode matrix but also promotes the homogeneous precipitation of Li₂S₂/Li₂S, which enhances electrochemical reversibility and cycling stability. Using nitrogen-doped carbon (NC800) as a model catalyst, we reveal its ability to drive a pseudo-16-electron reduction pathway, leading to a single dominant Li₂S product and uniform deposition within the porous framework. In contrast, a non-catalytic carbon (KB) yields multiple polysulfide intermediates and heterogeneous deposition. The mechanistic insights provided here highlight the pivotal role of catalytic disproportionation in reshaping sulfur redox pathways and offer a rational strategy for mitigating polysulfide shuttling in practical Li-S pouch cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coordinated Natural Gas and Electric Planning: Case Studies of Current Approaches and Practices

This paper examines how natural gas and electric utilities across eight U.S. states and two Canadian provinces are beginning to coordinate historically separate planning processes in response to growing system interdependencies, policy mandates, aging infrastructure, and changing customer energy choices. Electricity planning has long relied on robust integrated resource planning frameworks that weigh numerous objectives, risks, and costs. Natural gas planning, on the other hand, is typically less transparent and more narrowly focused on safety and system integrity. As economic, reliability, and policy drivers place new and shared demands on both systems, jurisdictions and utilities are experimenting with approaches such as coordinated forecasting, non pipeline alternatives, and combined planning pilots. A few have issued regulatory or statutory directives for greater data sharing and methodological alignment. Case studies from British Columbia, California, Colorado, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Québec, Rhode Island, and Washington illustrate a wide range of approaches to rethinking siloed planning. The paper identifies several common themes across the jurisdictions examined. It provides observations on the methods, processes, and organizational steps that may be needed in the future to address the challenges being faced by states and utilities. Lastly, it identifies some initial steps that states and utilities can consider if they would like to pursue more integrated, cost-effective, policy-aligned energy system planning.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗