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DOE OSTI2024

Improved deep learning prediction of antigen–antibody interactions

Identifying antibodies that neutralize specific antigens is crucial for developing effective immunotherapies, but this task remains challenging for many target antigens. The rise of deep learning–based computational approaches presents a promising avenue to address this challenge. Here, we assess the performance of a deep learning approach through two benchmark tests aimed at predicting antibodies for the receptor-binding domain of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein. Three different strategies for constructing input sequence alignments are employed for predicting structural models of antigen–antibody complexes. In our initial testing set, which comprises known experimental structures, these strategies collectively yield a significant top-ranked prediction for 61% of cases and a success rate of 47%. Notably, one strategy that utilizes the sequences of known antigen binders outperforms the other two, achieving a precision of 90% in a subsequent test set of ~1,000 antibodies, balanced between true and control antibodies for the antigen, albeit with a lower recall of 25%. Our results underscore the potential of integrating deep learning methods with single B cell sequencing techniques to enhance the prediction accuracy of antigen–antibody interactions.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Experimental Report: Multi-Instrument Comparison of AAF Condensation Particle Counters

Condensation particle counters (CPCs), also known as condensation nucleus counters (CNCs) are sophisticated instruments designed to measure the concentration of aerosol particles in the atmosphere. These devices are pivotal in environmental monitoring, industrial applications, and scientific research, particularly in atmospheric studies. CPCs are vital for understanding the role of aerosols in climate systems. Aerosols influence cloud formation, radiative forcing, and atmospheric chemistry. By providing accurate measurements of particle concentrations and distributions, CPCs contribute to models that predict atmospheric impact and weather patterns (Mei et al. 2021). CPCs operate by enlarging submicron particles, including those as small as a few nanometers, to sizes detectable by optical methods. This report delves into the mechanisms, importance, and contributions of CPCs to atmospheric research at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF), highlighting their role in advancing air quality assessment, pollution control, and atmospheric studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Twinac: A Universal Framework for Virtual Accelerator Controls

We propose a universal framework for a system of virtual accelerator controls (Twinac), a standard toolkit for research institutions to design, maintain, and use a real-time, end-to-end "digital twin" of their particle accelerator facility. This virtual counterpart will mirror any physical accelerator to provide (1) predictive maintenance; (2) surveillance of hidden environmental factors, such as seasonal temperature variations, which could impact performance of power supplies, magnets, and other instruments; and (3) a capability to model novel ways to operate the accelerator without risking equipment damage. Twinac is envisioned as accelerator facility agnostic, allowing institutions to share and reuse myriad simulation approaches (analytics-based, A.I.-driven, or combinations of the like) across facilities. The Twinac system lays the groundwork for a collaborative network of institutions to maintain and update this shared virtual accelerator technology.

Miceli, Tia M. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000265577789)↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Generic FSC Wind Park EMT Model with IEEE Std 2800-Compliant Fault Ride-Through Capability

The modern power grid is seeing more and more electricity come from renewable sources like wind farms, which use sophisticated power electronics instead of traditional spinning generators. To keep everything running smoothly and meet industry standards such as IEEE 2800, these systems need smart control strategies. In our work, we built a flexible computer model of a full-scale wind farm converter that can handle grid disturbances without shutting down. When a fault or storm hits, the model’s built-in logic automatically adjusts the currents it sends to the grid and protects its internal energy storage, ensuring the wind farm stays connected and doesn’t damage its own equipment. Once the disturbance clears, the model restores normal operation seamlessly, so there’s no long interruption in power delivery. At the same time, it carefully regulates the voltage where the wind farm ties into the larger grid, helping to maintain safe voltage levels across the network. Our simulations show that this control setup not only meets all the requirements of IEEE Standard 2800 but also allows the wind farm to recover quickly and predictably, keeping the lights on no matter what happens on the grid.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mechanistic modeling of in vitro transcription incorporating effects of magnesium pyrophosphate crystallization

The in vitro transcription (IVT) reaction used in the production of messenger RNA vaccines and therapies remains poorly quantitatively understood. Mechanistic modeling of IVT could inform reaction design, scale-up, and control. In this work, we develop a mechanistic model of IVT to include nucleation and growth of magnesium pyrophosphate crystals and subsequent agglomeration of crystals and DNA. To help generalize this model to different constructs, a novel quantitative description is included for the rate of transcription as a function of target sequence length, DNA concentration, and T7 RNA polymerase concentration. The model explains previously unexplained trends in IVT data and quantitatively predicts the effect of adding the pyrophosphatase enzyme to the reaction system. The model is validated on additional literature data showing an ability to predict transcription rates as a function of RNA sequence length.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

An integrated approach to optimizing concentration shock wave electrodialysis using 2D multicell simulation and response surface models

Shock wave electrodialysis (SWED) is a highly promising technique for energy-efficient ion separation in the context of a circular economy. This paper presents a approach way of modeling and improving SWED using a two-dimensional multicell model combined with the COMSOL program and response surface methodology. The model integrates the Nernst-Planck equation, Darcy's law, and first-order electroosmosis to examine the local concentration, flux of ionic species, distribution of current, and velocity of flow in SWED cells under various operating conditions. We first illustrate the clear depiction of concentration, velocity, and electric potential distribution through contours which aids in identifying optimal operating conditions and designing scalable SWED systems. The results emphasize the significance of surface charge density and voltage in influencing the features of shock waves for obtaining effective ion separation while optimizing energy consumption and improving current efficiency by controlling the retention time of feed flow. Here, this study defines two crucial characteristics of shock waves, namely the length of the flat depletion zone of a fully developed shock wave (shock wave height) and the distance of shock wave propagation (shock wave length). These properties significantly impact separation performance, as determined by the simulation results. Additionally, the response surface methodology is incorporated with the COMSOL models to develop predictive models and graph responses, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of the interactions between parameters and performance indicators, such as removal ratio, energy consumption, and water recovery. Finally, this work suggests design tactics for expanding SWED processes and outlines potential areas for further research. This research provides valuable insights into the prospective applications, design optimization, and scalability of SWED in the field of electrokinetic separation technologies for green chemistry and a circular economy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Heterostructural interface engineering for ultrawide-gap nitrides from first principles: Ta C / Al N and Ta C / Ga N rocksalt-wurtzite interfaces

Epitaxial lattice matching is an important condition for the formation of coherent interfaces with low defect densities. However, lattice-matched substrates with the same crystal structure as the active layer are often not available, suggesting opportunities for utilizing heterostructural interfaces. For example, at high Al contents that are interesting for ultrawide-gap applications in power electronics, Al x ⁢Ga 1-x ⁢N semiconductor alloys in the (0001) orientation of the wurtzite (wz) structure become lattice-matched to (111)-oriented rocksalt (rs) Ta⁢C substrates. To predict the expected interface atomic structures under different synthesis conditions, we perform high-throughput density-functional-theory calculations, using an algorithm for systematic sampling of the possible stacking sequences of the atomic layers on the in-plane hexagonal lattice. The approach considers octahedral, tetrahedral, and prismatic coordination motifs, and is generally applicable for the modeling of commensurate rs/wz heterostructural interfaces. Our results provide guidance for synthesis control of substrate-film bonding and the polarity of ultrawide-gap Al x⁢ Ga 1-x⁢ N alloys on Ta⁢C substrates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Use of Modeling and Experiments to Assess the Effect of Minor Alloying Additions on Alumina Scale Formation during High-Temperature Oxidation

During the last decades, new generations of Ni-based superalloys have emerged with judiciously controlled chemistries. These alloys heavily rely on the addition of refractory elements to enhance their mechanical properties at elevated temperatures; however, a clear interpretation of the influence of these minor-element additions on the alloy's high-temperature oxidation behavior is still not well understood, particularly from the standpoint of predicting the transition from internal to external alumina formation. In this context, the present investigation describes a systematic study that addresses the intrinsic effects that minor element additions of Nb, Ta, and Re have on the oxidation behavior of alumina-scale forming γ-Ni alloys. By combining a novel simulation approach with high-temperature oxidation experiments, the present study evidences the generally positive effect associated with 2 at. % addition of Ta and Re as well as the detrimental consequences of Nb additions on the 1100 °C oxidation of (in at. %) Ni-6Al-(0,4,6,8)Cr alloys.

Rodriguez, Rafael↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heat Transfer Experiments of a 1st Stage Blade Cascade for Supercritical CO2 Oxy-Combustion Turbine Application

The results of internally cooled 1st stage blade (S1B) cascade testing in a supercritical CO2 environment is presented. The turbine blade design has been previously established for the end application of an oxy-combustion turbine operating in the Allam-Fetvedt cycle with turbine inlet conditions of 305 bar and 1150°C. The internally cooled blade features leading edge (LE) region impingement cooling, mid-section ribbed serpentine passages, and a pin-finned trailing edge (TE) region before cooling ejection holes. The geometry for the tested blade cascade has a cooled central blade with un-cooled blades on either side to match flowpath areas of the actual turbine. The flowpath reuses internal components previously employed for mid-section region ribbed serpentine passage experiments that established Nusselt number enhancement ratios over a range of Reynolds numbers from 100,000-400,000. New components include flow conditioning plates upstream and downstream of the blade cascade to adequately represent the flow field and blade external heat transfer coefficient profiles for the actual turbine. The cooled central blade utilizes uniform crystal temperature sensors (UCTS) with six sensors each on the blade pressure and suction surfaces distributed radially and from LE to TE. The post-processed UCTS quantified the maximum wall temperature seen at each installed sensor location. The test procedure consisted of establishing supercritical CO2 cooling flow temperature and flow rate and maintaining it throughout the test. The flow rate aims to match that for the actual in-service turbine blade design and is maintained through an orifice restriction to keep the pressure differential between internal cooling flow and external hot flow nearly constant. For the sCO2 flow path external to the blade, temperatures were ramped throughout the test via control of the test loop’s natural gas burner heater. The maximum temperature seen was 468°C and held constant for a duration of 10 minutes at which the blade metal temperature was predicted to be at its maximum before ramping down. For the turbine blade design for service inlet conditions, external flow path computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results and an internal cooling 1-D thermal and hydraulic flow network model using experimentally validated correlations served as thermal finite element (FE) boundary conditions to predict blade metal temperatures. These predicted temperatures were subsequently utilized in a structural FE model to predict blade life ratings dictated by Haynes 282 creep strength data, having a strong dependence on temperature. The boundary conditions experienced during testing are used in the same workflow and compared to the experimental results, with the goal of validating the analysis methodology and providing insight on the uncertainty in local metal temperature predictions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Elucidating Abnormal Grain Growth in Thermomagnetic Processed Materials with Transfer Learning and Reinforcement Learning

The goal of this research program is to establish the mechanism governing local grain boundary motion, which is needed to design and process desirable microstructures for better performance, by identifying the relative contributions of grain boundary (GB) energy and mobility to grain growth. Classical models for grain growth assume that the primary mechanism for reducing the total interfacial energy is area reduction and that GB restructuring is not significant. This assumption implies that grain growth is locally driven by curvature. However, recent experimental observations using new non-destructive 3D x-ray diffraction microscopy techniques (3D-XRM) reveal that classic descriptors (i.e., curvature, number of neighbors, grain size) do not predict real grain growth. Instead, local GB motion appears to be governed by its energy relative to its neighbors such that low-energy boundaries replace those of higher energy. However, simulations that incorporate GB energy anisotropy still fail to reproduce these observations. These discrepancies suggest that the common assumption for grain growth theory must be re-examined to predict and, thus, control microstructure evolution in real polycrystals. A significant challenge to testing this assumption is due to anisotropic GB mobility. Mobility may cause abnormal grain growth or affect the final grain shapes or growth rate but its true contributions are unknown because it is difficult to measure. For example, observations in Fe have found that grains associated with high energy and high mobility boundaries tend to experience abnormal grain growth, whereas abnormal grain growth is associated with low energy and high mobility boundaries in alumina. As mobility and energy both control GB motion, it is challenging to isolate the local driving forces necessary to test the common assumption that the primary mechanism is area reduction. The novelty of this work is the use of machine learning tools to capture GB mobility and energy from 3D-XRM measurements in polycrystals to test the common assumption used in grain growth models. Machine learning can capture high-order correlations in dynamic systems like those found in the evolving GB topology. The PIs have developed a physics-regularized interpretable machine learning microstructure evolution (PRIMME) model that accurately replicates the grain growth behavior of its trained data set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Temperature and Composition Dependence Modeling of Viscosity and Electrical Conductivity of Low-Activity Waste Glass Melts

The development of models that accurately relate the properties of a glass melt to its temperature and composition is important for glass formulation, melter control, and modeling the melt flow, refractory corrosion, and production rate. Using a database consisting of more than 4,000 data points measured between 900 °C and 1250 °C for over 600 unique low-activity waste glass compositions, we developed models for the melt viscosity and electrical conductivity. Models based on the Gaussian process regression approach outperformed models based on the Vogel–Fulcher–Tammann equation according to four standard metrics and yielded reliable prediction intervals. The models found primarily linear effects between properties and individual components, except for the effect of the Na 2 O mass fraction on the electrical conductivity. The effects were found to be consistent with current theories on physical processes involved with those properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Modified Sand’s Time Incorporating Li-Ion Transport Across the SEI: Basis for Understanding Li Dendrite Formation and Li-Metal Battery Electrolyte Selection

Abstract Understanding the initiation of lithium dendrites remains elusive, largely due to the intricate role of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) which forms on the Li surface during electrodeposition. Many studies have utilized the classical Sand’s equation to estimate the onset time when lithium dendrites begin to form. The Sand’s equation provides the time when the cation (Li+) concentration at the electrode-electrolyte interface approaches zero under diffusion-limited conditions in galvanostatic Li electrodeposition. However, recent experimental studies have revealed that the observed lithium dendrite onset time deviates considerably from the Sand’s time. Here, we show that this deviation from classical theory is likely due to the transport of Li+ ions through the SEI - a transport limitation that is much more dominant in controlling dendrite formation. We develop a ‘modified’ Sand's equation, incorporating the SEI layer and the diffusional transport across it to predict Li dendrite onset times. To validate this approach, we conducted Li electrodeposition experiments at various current densities using two distinct organic electrolytes. Analysis of the results demonstrates that the modified Sand's equation provides a more accurate prediction of dendrite onset times, highlighting the importance of incorporating SEI into transport models of Li plating in next-generation rechargeable Li-metal batteries.

Ma, Yuanman (ORCID:0000000200444811)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Determination of Site Occupancy in the M–Pd–Zn (M = Cu, Ag, and Au) γ-Brass Phase by CALculation of PHAse Diagrams Modeling and Rietveld Refinement

The Pd–Zn γ-brass phase provides exciting opportunities for synthesizing site-isolated catalysts with precisely controlled Pd active site ensembles. Introducing a third metallic element into the γ-brass lattice further perturbs the catalytic active site ensembles. Here, in this work, we introduce coinage metallic elements M (M = Cu, Ag, and Au) into the Pd–Zn γ-brass phase and investigate the site occupation factors of each element in the γ-brass lattice. The CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling approach supported by energetics predicted by the density functional theory and X-ray and neutron diffraction with Rietveld refinement were used to identify the SOF on each Wyckoff site for various M amounts alloyed into the Pd–Zn γ-brass phase. The present analysis unveils the strong preference for Pd occupying the outer tetrahedral (OT) site in the γ-brass lattice, while the coinage metallic elements tend to substitute for Zn on the octahedral (OH) site. The determination of site occupancy in the bulk M–Pd–Zn γ-brass phase provides opportunities to investigate and tailor potential catalytically active site ensembles in the γ-brass phase materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Co-Simulation Meets AI: MCP-Driven Power System Analysis

GridGPT, a fine-tuned Generative AI model is designed for on-premise use in grid control rooms. This presentation will demonstrate how eGridGPT can seamlessly integrate with control room solutions to offer operators, engineers, and corporate users enhanced guidance and decision support. It is to show how this innovative AI solution can improve state estimation, boost variable energy forecasting, and optimize grid operations. By leveraging eGridGPT's unique features, audience will learn to unlock new levels of automation, predictive analytics, and reliability within their power systems, ultimately leading to reduced downtime and improved operational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Introducing the DREAMS Project: DaRk mattEr and Astrophysics with Machine Learning and Simulations

We introduce the DaRk mattEr and Astrophysics with Machine learning and Simulations (DREAMS) project, an innovative approach to understanding the astrophysical implications of alternative dark matter (DM) models and their effects on galaxy formation and evolution. The DREAMS project will ultimately comprise thousands of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations that simultaneously vary over DM physics, astrophysics, and cosmology in modeling a range of systems—from galaxy clusters to ultra-faint satellites. Such extensive simulation suites can provide adequate training sets for machine-learning-based analyses. This paper introduces two new cosmological hydrodynamical suites of warm dark matter (WDM), each comprising 1024 simulations generated using the arepo code. One suite consists of uniform-box simulations covering a ${(25\,{h}^{-1}\,{\rm{Mpc}})}^{3}$ volume, while the other consists of Milky Way zoom-ins with sufficient resolution to capture the properties of classical satellites. For each simulation, the WDM particle mass is varied along with the initial density field and several parameters controlling the strength of baryonic feedback within the IllustrisTNG model. We provide two examples, separately utilizing emulators and convolutional neural networks, to demonstrate how such simulation suites can be used to disentangle the effects of DM and baryonic physics on galactic properties. The DREAMS project can be extended further to include different DM models, galaxy formation physics, and astrophysical targets. In this way, it will provide an unparalleled opportunity to characterize uncertainties on predictions for small-scale observables, leading to robust predictions for testing the particle physics nature of DM on these scales.

cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Charging Rendezvous and Motion Planning for a Multi-AGV Team Including a Mobile Charging Host

Teams of automated battery-powered electric vehicles have the potential to execute complex mission tasks in off-road environments for agriculture, military, and other applications. Limited onboard energy reserves hinder their adoption in large-scale resource-constrained environments, where recharging is a necessity. It may be infeasible to install a network of static charging stations in off-road environments. For this reason, dedicated mobile host vehicles with charging capabilities are proposed as a means to increase range and capabilities of the multivehicle team. Here, in this study, we consider an ad hoc planning framework, where results from a high-confidence trajectory planner are leveraged to plan charging rendezvous between a host and other worker vehicles in a receding horizon fashion to provide high confidence that energy reserves will not be prematurely exhausted. The core problem is posed so as to minimize the impact of recharging on the mission in terms of task delays, overall energy utilization, and costs of fast charging. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations of an off-road mission, we show a decrease in task delays without substantial increases in energy needs by updating the charging rendezvous plan during the mission. However, if updates are made too often, model mismatch may cause unnecessary cycling and mission failure.

Energy constraints↗