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DOE OSTI2012

Generalized Environment for Modeling Systems

GEMS is an integrated environment that allows technical analysts, modelers, researchers, etc. to integrate and deploy models and/or decision tools with associated data to the internet for direct use by customers. GEMS does not require that the model developer know how to code or script and therefore delivers this capability to a large group of technical specialists. Customers gain the benefit of being able to execute their own scenarios directly without need for technical support. GEMS is a process that leverages commercial software products with specialized codes that add connectivity and unique functions to support the overall capability. Users integrate pre-existing models with a commercial product and store parameters and input trajectories in a companion commercial database. The model is then exposed into a commercial web environment and a graphical user interface (GUI) is applied by the model developer. Users execute the model through the web based GUI and GEMS manages supply of proper inputs, execution of models, routing of data to models and display of results back to users. GEMS works in layers, the following description is from the bottom up. Modelers create models in the modeling tool of their choice such as Excel, Matlab, or Fortran. They can also use models from a library of previously wrapped legacy codes (models). Modelers integrate the models (or a single model) by wrapping and connecting the models using the Phoenix Integration tool entitled ModelCenter. Using a ModelCenter/SAS plugin (DOE copyright CW-10-08) the modeler gets data from either an SAS or SQL database and sends results back to SAS or SQL. Once the model is working properly, the ModelCenter file is saved and stored in a folder location to which a SharePoint server tool created at INL is pointed. This enables the ModelCenter model to be run from SharePoint. The modeler then goes into Microsoft SharePoint and creates a graphical user interface (GUI) using the ModelCenter WebPart (CW-12-04) created at INL to work inside SharePoint. The GUI tool links slider bars and drop downs to specific inputs and output of the ModelCenter model that is executable from SharePoint. The modeler also creates in SAS, dashboards, graphs and tables that are exposed by links and SAS and ModelCenter Web Parts into the SharePoint system. The user can then log into SharePoint, move slider bars and select drop down lists to configure the model parameters, click to run the model, and then view the output results that are based on their particular input choices. The main point is that GEMS eliminates the need for a programmer to connect and create the web artifacts necessary to implement and deliver an executable model or decision aid to customers.

Alessi, RandolphSamuel↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Flotation Simulator That Can Predict Grade vs. Recovery Curves from Mineral Liberation Data

Flotation is a kinetic process designed to separate mineral fines by control of hydrophobicity. In general, both the recovery and selectivity of a flotation process increase with contact angle. It is difficult, however, to model flotation kinetics using the thermodynamic parameter. In the present work, we consider flotation as heterocoagulation so that the bubble-particle interactions occurring in the pulp phase of a flotation cell can be modeled using the hydrophobic force as a kinetic parameter that can represent the role of contact angles in flotation. Here, the pulp-phase model developed in this manner has been combined with a froth-phase model developed earlier by considering the effect of particles in film thinning kinetics and bubble coarsening (Park et al, 2018). The combined model has been used to develop a flotation simulator that can be used to construct grade vs. recovery curves from feed characteristics (e.g., mineral liberation and particle size) and various operating parameters. The simulator has been tested successfully against a set of bench-scale continuous flotation test results reported in the literature (dos Santos and Galery, 2018).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Performance Comparison of Low-Cost Near-Infrared (NIR) Spectrometers to a Conventional Laboratory Spectrometer for Rapid Biomass Compositional Analysis

The performance of a conventional laboratory near-infrared (NIR) spectrometer and two NIR spectrometer prototypes (a Texas Instruments NIRSCAN Nano evaluation model (EVM) and an InnoSpectra NIR-M-R2 spectrometer) are compared by collecting reflectance spectra of 270 well-characterized herbaceous biomass samples, building calibration models using the partial least squares (PLS-2) algorithm to predict five constituents of the samples from the reflectance spectra, and comparing the resulting model statistics. The prediction models developed using spectra from the Foss XDS spectrometer were slightly better than the prediction models developed using spectra from either the TI NIRSCAN Nano EVM and the InnoSpectra NIR-M-R2 as measured by the root mean square error (RMSECV) and the correlation coefficient (R 2 _cv) for “leave-one-out” cross-validation (CV). The models built from the two prototype units were not statistically significantly different from each other (p = 0.05). The Foss spectrometer has a larger wavelength range (400–2500 nm) compared with the two prototypes (900–1700 nm). When the spectra from the Foss XDS spectrometer were truncated so their wavelength range matched the wavelength range of the two prototype units, the resulting model was not statistically significantly different from the models from either prototype.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of a multi-scale WRF-CAM5 simulation during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) has been applied at multiple scales over Eastern China (EC) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) to evaluate how increased horizontal resolution with physics designed for a coarser resolution climate model impacts aerosols and clouds, and the resulting precipitation characteristics and performance during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Despite large underpredictions in surface aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth, there is good spatial agreement with surface observations of chemical predictions, and increasing spatial resolution tends to improve performance. Model bias and normalized root mean square values for precipitation predictions are relatively small, but there are significant differences when comparing modeled and observed probability density functions for precipitation in EC and YRD. Increasing model horizontal resolution tends to reduce model bias and error for precipitation predictions. The surface and column aerosol loading is maximized between about 32N and 42N in early to mid-May during the 2010 EASM, and then shifts north while decreasing in magnitude during July and August. Changing model resolution moderately changes the spatiotemporal relationships between aerosols, cloud properties, and precipitation during the EASM, thus demonstrating the importance of model grid resolution in simulating EASM circulation and rainfall patterns over EC and the YRD. Results from this work demonstrate the capability and limitations in the aerosol, cloud, and precipitation representation of WRF-CAM5 for regional-scale applications down to relatively fine horizontal resolutions. Further WRF-CAM5 model development and application in this area is needed.

Campbell, Patrick↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sodium Fire Collaborative Study Progress -- CNWG Fiscal Year 2020

This report discusses the progress on the collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) on the sodium fire research in fiscal year 2020. First, the current sodium pool fire model in MELCOR, which is adapted from CONTAIN-LMR code, is discussed. The associated sodium fire input requirements are also presented. These input requirements are flexible enough to permit further model development via control functions to enhance the current model without modifying the source code. The theoretical pool fire model improvement developed at Sandia is discussed. A control function model has been developed from this improvement. Then, the validation study of the sodium pool fire model in MELCOR carried out by both Sandia and JAEA’s staff is described. To validate this pool fire model with the enhancement, a JAEA sodium pool fire experiment (F7-1 test) is used. The results of the calculation are discussed as well as suggestions for further model improvement. Finally, recommendations are made for new MELCOR simulations for next fiscal year, 2021.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Adsorbents and adsorption models for capture of Kr and Xe gas mixtures in fixed-bed columns

Off-gases produced during the reprocessing of used nuclear fuel (UNF) include 129-I 2 , 3-HHO, 14-CO 2 , 85-Kr, and 135-Xe, which are volatilized out into the off-gas. In order to meet regulatory requirements for reprocessing plant emissions, these gases must be captured and removed from the o?-gas stream prior to o?-gas emission. Of particular interest are the noble gases, Kr and Xe, which can be fairly difficult to remove from the off-gas due to their low chemical reactivity. Thus, this work is focused on utilizing engineered adsorbents, AgZ-PAN and HZ-PAN, to capture Kr and Xe from a mixed-gas stream at relatively low temperatures (191–295 K) and various flow rates (50–2000 mL/min). Isothermal data for Kr and Xe on each adsorbent are analyzed to produce the Langmuir parameters needed to model the mixture adsorption capacities at relevant temperatures using the Extended Langmuir model. Those parameters are then incorporated into a fixed-bed adsorption model developed in this work using the Mulitphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). That model is used to simulate breakthrough times for Kr and Xe in packed columns of AgZ-PAN and HZ-PAN, ranging in length from 6 to 20 in., at relevant temperatures and flow rates. Breakthrough times varied from nearly instantaneous for Kr in AgZ-PAN to 30 h for Xe in HZ-PAN. After the developed model was validated by comparisons with experimental break-through data, the model framework was used to simulate the performance of multiple fixed-bed columns connected in series.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2017

M4SF-17LL010301071: Thermodynamic Database Development

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-17LL010301071) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite Disposal R&D Work Package Number M4SF-17LL01030107. The DR Argillite Disposal R&D control account is focused on the evaluation of important processes in the analysis of disposal design concepts and related materials for nuclear fuel disposal in clay-bearing repository media. The objectives of this work package are to develop model tools for evaluating impacts of THMC process on long-term disposal of spent fuel in argillite rocks, and to establish the scientific basis for high thermal limits. This work is contributing to the GDSA model activities to identify gaps, develop process models, provide parameter feeds and support requirements providing the capability for a robust repository performance assessment model by 2020.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2011

MAR ASSESSMENTS OF THE HIGH LEVEL WASTE SYSTEM PLAN REVISION 16

High-level waste (HLW) throughput (i.e., the amount of waste processed per unit of time) is primarily a function of two critical parameters: waste loading (WL) and melt rate. For the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF), increasing HLW throughput would significantly reduce the overall mission life cycle costs for the Department of Energy (DOE). Significant increases in waste throughput have been achieved at DWPF since initial radioactive operations began in 1996. Key technical and operational initiatives that supported increased waste throughput included improvements in facility attainment, the Chemical Processing Cell (CPC) flowsheet, process control models and frit formulations. As a result of these key initiatives, DWPF increased WLs from a nominal 28% for Sludge Batch 2 (SB2) to {approx}34 to 38% for SB3 through SB6 while maintaining or slightly improving canister fill times. Although considerable improvements in waste throughput have been obtained, future contractual waste loading targets are nominally 40%, while canister production rates are also expected to increase (to a rate of 325 to 400 canisters per year). Although implementation of bubblers have made a positive impact on increasing melt rate for recent sludge batches targeting WLs in the mid30s, higher WLs will ultimately make the feeds to DWPF more challenging to process. Savannah River Remediation (SRR) recently requested the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to perform a paper study assessment using future sludge projections to evaluate whether the current Process Composition Control System (PCCS) algorithms would provide projected operating windows to allow future contractual WL targets to be met. More specifically, the objective of this study was to evaluate future sludge batch projections (based on Revision 16 of the HLW Systems Plan) with respect to projected operating windows using current PCCS models and associated constraints. Based on the assessments, the waste loading interval over which a glass system (i.e., a projected sludge composition with a candidate frit) is predicted to be acceptable can be defined (i.e., the projected operating window) which will provide insight into the ability to meet future contractual WL obligations. In this study, future contractual WL obligations are assumed to be 40%, which is the goal after all flowsheet enhancements have been implemented to support DWPF operations. For a system to be considered acceptable, candidate frits must be identified that provide access to at least 40% WL while accounting for potential variation in the sludge resulting from differences in batch-to-batch transfers into the Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT) and/or analytical uncertainties. In more general terms, this study will assess whether or not the current glass formulation strategy (based on the use of the Nominal and Variation Stage assessments) and current PCCS models will allow access to compositional regions required to targeted higher WLs for future operations. Some of the key questions to be considered in this study include: (1) If higher WLs are attainable with current process control models, are the models valid in these compositional regions? If the higher WL glass regions are outside current model development or validation ranges, is there existing data that could be used to demonstrate model applicability (or lack thereof)? If not, experimental data may be required to revise current models or serve as validation data with the existing models. (2) Are there compositional trends in frit space that are required by the PCCS models to obtain access to these higher WLs? If so, are there potential issues with the compositions of the associated frits (e.g., limitations on the B{sub 2}O{sub 3} and/or Li{sub 2}O concentrations) as they are compared to model development/validation ranges or to the term 'borosilicate' glass? If limitations on the frit compositional range are realized, what is the impact of these restrictions on other glass properties such as the ability to suppress nepheline formation or influence melt rate? The model based assessments being performed make the assumption that the process control models are applicable over the glass compositional regions being evaluated. Although the glass compositional region of interest is ultimately defined by the specific frit, sludge, and WL interval used, there is no prescreening of these compositional regions with respect to the model development or validation ranges which is consistent with current DWPF operations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2018

Development and modeling of a polar-direct-drive exploding pusher platform at the National Ignition Facility

High-intensity laser facilities, such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF), allow the experimental investigation of plasmas under extreme, high-energy-density conditions. Motivated by validating models for collisional heat-transfer processes in high-energy-density plasmas, we have developed an exploding pusher platform for use at the NIF in the polar-direct-drive configuration. The baseline design employs a 3 mm-diameter capsule, an 18 μm-thick CH ablator, and Ar-doped D 2 gas to achieve several keV electron-ion temperature separations with relatively low convergence ratios. In an initial series of shots at the NIF—N160920–003, -005, and N160921–001—the ratio of the laser intensity at different polar angles was varied to optimize the symmetry of the implosion. In this work, we summarize experimental results from the shot series and present pre- and post-shot analysis. Although the polar-direct-drive configuration is inherently asymmetric, we successfully tuned a post-shot 1D model to a set of key implosion performance metrics. The post-shot model has proven effective for extrapolating capsule performance to higher incident laser drive. Overall, the simplicity of the platform and the efficacy of the post-shot 1D model make the polar-direct-drive exploding pusher platform attractive for a variety of applications beyond the originally targeted study of collisional processes in high-energy-density plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of the reactor core isolation cooling system model for the extended station black-out accident

In order to accurately predict the behavior of the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC) in the context of the FLEX strategies under the extended station black-out accident (SBO), we present a mechanistic model of the RCIC in this work. The control volume formulation of angular momentum conservation is employed to model the Terry turbine in the RCIC system. The two-phase nozzle flow model developed in the previous work is utilized to simulate the convergent-divergent nozzles in the Terry turbine. A nozzle flow table is generated to cover the operation range of the RCIC during beyond design basis accidents (BDBAs). The mechanistic RCIC turbine-pump model and the nozzle flow table are incorporated in a TRACE BWR model. Simulations of short-term and long-term SBO transients are performed to demonstrate dynamic RCIC responses. A system analysis code with the proposed mechanistic model of the RCIC system will have a better prediction of system safety response during SBO accidents. With the addition of such more realistic models, the system code will be capable of providing expanded understanding of safety margin, which can help help to form the technical basis for the successful implementation of the FLEX and SAMG measures under Extended Loss of AC Power (ELAP) conditions for BWR or PWR reactor designs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Dynamical Model for Meson Production off Nucleon and Application to Neutrino-Nucleus Reactions

I explain the Sato-Lee (SL) model and its extension to the neutrino-induced pion production off the nucleon. Then I discuss applications of the SL model to incoherent and coherent pion productions in the neutrino-nucleus scattering. I mention a further extension of this approach with a dynamical coupled-channels model developed in Excited Baryon Analysis Center of JLab.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets

This repository contains simulated outputs from superwell – a hydro-economic tool for long-term assessment of groundwater cost and supply – providing globally gridded groundwater extractable volumes and associated unit costs ($/km³) for accessible groundwater production, based on a variety of user-defined depletion and ponded depth scenarios. Key model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S. B., Graham, N. T., Yoon, J., Wild, T. B., Hejazi, M., Watson, D. J., & Vernon, C. R. (2025). Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(5), 1737-1767. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025 Find the source code of the superwell model on GitHub: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Repository Overview Main output: superwell_outputs.7z contains 6 files (4.5 GB) named as superwell_py_deep_all_0.*PD_0.*DL.csv. These files present superwell outputs of global groundwater extraction volumes and cost estimates on a 0.5° scale for six scenarios with different Ponded Depth (PD; 0.3 and 0.6 m) and Depletion Limit (DL; 5%, 25%, and 40% of available volume) targets over the entire pumping lifetime of a grid cell superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_sample_100.csv contains superwell outputs for 100 data points sampled to match the global inputs' distribution superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_Grid_72548.csv contains superwell output for a single grid cell concept_v5.png provides an overview of the superwell workflow Outputs Description year_number: year of pumping depletion_limit: set depletion limit (DL) as a volume fraction of total available groundwater Mappings: continent, country, gcam_basin_id, Basin_long_name, grid_id: geographic identifiers and basin information Inputs: grid_area (km²): area of the grid cell whyclass: hydrogeological classification of the aquifer permeability (m/day), porosity (%), total_thickness (m), depth_to_water (m): aquifer properties. The geo-processed input data has been published separately: https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 Model outputs: orig_aqfr_sat_thickness (m), aqfr_sat_thickness (m): original and remaining/instantaneous saturated thickness of the aquifer hydraulic_conductivity (m/day), transmissivity (m²/day): hydraulic properties of the aquifer radius_of_influence (m), areal_extent (km²): well radius and area of influence from the center of the well number_of_wells (-): number of wells in a grid cell determined by a ratio of well area and grid area max_drawdown (m), drawdown (m), drawdown_interference (m): well and aquifer drawdown during extraction total_head (m): total lift for the groundwater (depth to water plus drawdown) total_well_length (m): total depth of wells drilled well_yield (m³/day): pumping rate or well yield power (kW), energy (kWh): power and energy required for pumping groundwater Volume Outputs: volume_produced_perwell (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_perwell (m³): production volume metrics per well volume_produced_allwells (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_allwells (m³): aggregate extraction volumes for all wells in a grid cell available_volume (m³): available groundwater in storage for the grid cell as determined by aquifer properties depleted_vol_fraction: fraction of total volume pumped over available volumes in a grid cell (same as depletion limit) Cost Outputs: well_installation_cost ($): well installation cost based on the hydrogeological complexity of the aquifer annual_capital_cost, maintenance_cost, nonenergy_cost ($): nonenergy costs energy_cost_rate ($/kWh): electricity rate energy_cost ($): energy cost of pumping groundwater total_cost_perwell ($), total_cost_allwells ($): total annual energy and non-energy cost for each and all wells in a grid cell a unit_cost ($/m³), unit_cost_per_km3 ($/km³), unit_cost_per_acreft ($/acre-ft): total cost of pumping a unit of groundwater, indicated for different spatial units Key Resources Model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Graham, N., Yoon, J., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024; In-prep). Long-term Hydro-economic Assessment Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply: Superwell v1. Geoscientific Model Development. Input data: Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 superwell source code: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Cite as Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Yoon, J., Graham, N., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024). Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307832 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or Stephen Ferencz or open an issue in the superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

Earth Systems↗

DOE OSTI2016

Development of Macroscale Models of UO 2 Fuel Sintering and Densification using Multiscale Modeling and Simulation

Light water reactor fuel pellets are fabricated using sintering to final densities of 95% or greater. During reactor operation, the porosity remaining in the fuel after fabrication decreases further due to irradiation-assisted densification. While empirical models have been developed to describe this densification process, a mechanistic model is needed as part of the ongoing work by the NEAMS program to develop a more predictive fuel performance code. In this work we will develop a phase field model of sintering of UO 2 in the MARMOT code, and validate it by comparing to published sintering data. We will then add the capability to capture irradiation effects into the model, and use it to develop a mechanistic model of densification that will go into the BISON code and add another essential piece to the microstructure-based materials models. The final step will be to add the effects of applied fields, to model field-assisted sintering of UO 2 . The results of the phase field model will be validated by comparing to data from field-assisted sintering. Tasks over three years: 1. Develop a sintering model for UO 2 in MARMOT 2. Expand model to account for irradiation effects 3. Develop a mechanistic macroscale model of densification for BISON

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fluoride-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor Reference Plant Model Updates

This work presents the latest improvements to, and investigations performed with, the Fluoride-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor reference plant models for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These models, developed with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, serve as the foundation for the future development of detailed design evaluation models based on license applications. BlueCRAB is the code suite proposed for non-light-water reactor systems safety analyses, and it incorporates various simulation tools developed by the Nuclear Energy Advance Modeling and Simulation program, including the Griffin code for reactor physics, the Pronghorn and SAM codes for core thermal fluids, the BISON code for solid conduction and fuel performance, and the SAM code for system analysis. The primary objective of this work is to assess the level of readiness of BlueCRAB for modeling fluoride-cooled high-temperature pebble-bed reactors. We first developed numerical models in BlueCRAB that include the key physics for this technology, ensuring an adequate level of fidelity for modeling the core performance during accident scenarios. This was followed by simulation of transient scenarios, two loss-of-forced-cooling events (one protected and one unprotected), and two control rod withdrawal events (one delayed and one prompt supercritical reactivity insertion). The analysis includes comparisons between the 2-D thermal fluid porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM, comparisons between coupled Pronghorn-Griffin and coupled SAM-Griffin models for two loss-of-forced cooling events and one control rod withdrawal event, and comparisons between SAM single-solve and domain-overlapping approaches for multi-scale thermal fluid coupling. In addition, we performed comparisons between 3-D, 2-D, and 0-D neutronic models for the two control rod withdrawal scenarios with Pronghorn-Griffin. The results show that the BlueCRAB models led to physically intuitive solutions for the scenarios examined. The changes in the various scalar and vector fields such as the neutron flux, power, temperatures, densities, pressures, and velocities are all within the expected ranges, and their distributions can be explained from the system response of the transients and the geometric and material variations. Several comparisons suggest that the porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM can lead to similar solutions, even though they are based on different methodologies. The simulations demonstrate that there are differences between the various levels of fidelity, and it is advisable to have flexible tools that can cover the breadth and depth of needs that may arise in future technical evaluations. We believe that BlueCRAB’s capabilities represent a significant asset for confirmatory analyses aimed at resolving important safety questions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Toward “optimal” integration of terrestrial biosphere models

Multimodel ensembles (MME) are commonplace in Earth system modeling. Here we perform MME integration using a 10-member ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Multiscale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). We contrast optimal (skill based for present-day carbon cycling) versus naive (one model-one vote) integration. MsTMIP optimal and naive mean land sink strength estimates (-1.16 versus -1.15 Pg C per annum respectively) are statistically indistinguishable. This holds also for grid cell values and extends to gross uptake, biomass, and net ecosystem productivity. TBM skill is similarly indistinguishable. The added complexity of skill-based integration does not materially change MME values. This suggests that carbon metabolism has predictability limits and/or that all models and references are misspecified. Finally, resolving this issue requires addressing specific uncertainty types (initial conditions, structure, and references) and a change in model development paradigms currently dominant in the TBM community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Production Implications of Pressure Maintenance in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells using a Machine Learning Modeling Approach: Case Study in the Permian Basin

This study implements the proprietary machine learning-based model (model) developed under the 2022 study titled “Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach” for forecasting unconventional oil and gas production using well data from the Permian Basin. The model, developed using an exclusive dataset that includes time series production data from an operator in the Permian Basin, is designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottomhole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well-completion attributes. In this study, the model was explicitly applied to explore its utility to evaluate the impact of varying drawdown strategies on the production forecast of a well in the Permian Basin dataset. Managing pressure drawdown has been identified as a way to improve estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from unconventional shale wells due to the stress-dependent nature of fractures in shale reservoirs. Research has shown that applying a lower pressure drawdown helps to maintain the reservoir conductivity, resulting in higher productivity over the life of a well. Historic bottomhole pressure data from the well over time was used as a benchmark from which to set more and less aggressive pressure decline rates as bounding modeling cases. All pressure decline rates/strategies were forecasted over 5 years, and the model was used to generate oil, water, and gas prediction over the same timeframe. This report presents the results from the production forecast and discusses potential operational and economic implications, with contrasting perspectives between well productivity and profitability given typical oil and gas economics and the volatility in the oil and gas market.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Open-Source Virtual Testbed for a Real Net-Zero Energy Community

Net zero energy communities (NZECs) are critical to ensure sustainability and resilience of modernized power systems. System modeling helps overcome technical challenges in designing and operating NZECs. In this paper, we present the modeling work based on a real NZEC. Two sets of models are developed: higher-fidelity physics-based models considering the interaction between subsystems of the studied NZEC and capturing fast-dynamics; and lower-fidelity data-driven models requiring less resource to establish and/or run. All models are validated against measurements from this real NZEC. In addition, we create a simulation framework which streamlines the processes for simulation and thus allows using developed models to form a virtual testbed. To demonstrate the usage of the virtual testbed, a case study is conducted where a building-to-grid integration control is evaluated via simulation. The evaluation results suggest that the tested control significantly smooths the power draw of the studied community and doesn’t sacrifice the thermal comfort to a great extent.

Huang, Sen↗