Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model discrepancy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗

Modeling the Effect of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field on Cosmic Ray Muon Shadows

Cosmic ray (CR) muon shadows were located using muon data from the MINOS Far Detector in Northern Minnesota. The shadows were located independently across 3 time periods; near solar minimum, solar maximum, and over the entire 13 year span of the data. A muon distribution for each shadow was then sampled to simulate CR motions near the Sun using the Parker Spiral model of the Sun’s IMF and a dipole model of the Earth’s GMF. The resulting particle distributions were then compared to their position with respect to the Sun. An analytical relationship between the primary CR cutoff energy E0 and the associated shadow deflections was observed. The minimum cutoff energy of the primary CR energy spectrum consistent with the Parker Spiral model was determined to be $E_0 = 22.8 \pm 1.2$~TeV. This value is 2-3 times higher than the experimentally determined value. Complexities that can be added to the Parker Spiral Model and affect the overall shift of the the Sun’s cosmic ray shadow are discuss ed to explain discrepancies. Results show that the Parker Spiral model is most consistent with the the solar minimum shadow and least consistent with the solar maximum shadow, as expected.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Estimating short-period dynamics using an extended Kalman filter

An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used to estimate the parameters of a low-order model from aircraft transient response data. The low-order model is a state space model derived from the short-period approximation of the longitudinal aircraft dynamics. The model corresponds to the pitch rate to stick force transfer function currently used in flying qualities analysis. Because of the model chosen, handling qualities information is also obtained. The parameters are estimated from flight data as well as from a six-degree-of-freedom, nonlinear simulation of the aircraft. These two estimates are then compared and the discrepancies noted. The low-order model is able to satisfactorily match both flight data and simulation data from a high-order computer simulation. The parameters obtained from the EKF analysis of flight data are compared to those obtained using frequency response analysis of the flight data. Time delays and damping ratios are compared and are in agreement. This technique demonstrates the potential to determine, in near real time, the extent of differences between computer models and the actual aircraft. Precise knowledge of these differences can help to determine the flying qualities of a test aircraft and lead to more efficient envelope expansion.

Bauer, Jeffrey E.↗

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Part 1: Aspects of lithospheric evolution on Venus. Part 2: Thermal and collisional histories of chondrite parent bodies

The geological evolution of distinctly different kinds of solar system objects is addressed. Venus has been observed over the past decade by orbital radars on both American and Soviet spacecraft. These surface measurements provide clues to the structure and evolution of the lithosphere. The parent bodies of chondritic meteorites, thought to resemble asteroids, represent the other end of the size spectrum of terrestrial objects. Their early thermal and collisional histories may be constrained by the chemical and textural record preserved in meteorite samples. Impact craters on Venus have been observed by the Soviet Venera 15/16 spacecraft. A formalism is presented by which the size-frequency distribution of impact craters may be used to estimate upper bounds on the mean global rates of volcanic resurfacing and lithospheric recycling on that planet over the past several hundred million years. The impact crater density reported from Venera observations, if valid for the entire Venus surface, indicates a mean volcanic flux no greater than 2 cu km/y, corresponding to a maximum average rate of resurfacing of about 4 km/b.y. For the lowest estimated mean crater retention age of the surface of Venus imaged by Venera 15/16, the rate of lithospheric recycling on Venus does not exceed 1.5 sq km/y. Ordinary chondrite meteorites show textural and chemical patterns indicative of varying intensities of thermal metamorphism. The conventional onion-shell model, which envisions highly metamorphosed material in the core and less intensely heated rocks near the surface, predicts an inverse relation between peak temperature and cooking rate, but none has been observed. A metamorphosed-planetesimal model is devised to explain this discrepancy, whereby heating occurs in planetesimals a few kilometers in radius which then accrete to form 100-km-radius parent bodies. Cooling rates are then randomly controlled by burial depth. Thermal and collisional constraints are examined, and the model is found to be applicable only to highly insulating Al-26-rich planetesimals that remain closely aggregated upon accretion. An alternative model is presented, in which onion-shell parent bodies are collisionally fragmented during metamorphism and then gravitationally reassembled. If reassembly times are short, then cooling rates would be determined by burial depth in the reaccreted parent body. This model, unlike previous ones, can explain both coherent and incoherent cooling of Breccia clasts by collisions during or after metamorphism, respectively.

Grimm, Robert E.↗

Determining the electrical conductivity of metals using the 2 MA Thor pulsed power driver

We present the development of a pulsed power experimental technique to infer the electrical conductivity of metals from ambient to high energy density conditions. The method is implemented on Thor, a moderate scale (1–2 MA) pulsed power driver. The electrical conductivity of copper at elevated temperature (>4000 K) and pressure (>10 GPa) is determined, and a new tabular material model is developed, guided by density functional theory, which preserves agreement with existing experimental data. Minor modifications (<10%) are found to be necessary to the previous Lee–More–Desjarlais model isotherms in the vicinity of the melt transition in order to account for observed discrepancies with the new experimental data. An analytical model for magnetic direct drive flyer acceleration and Joule heating induced vaporization based on the Tsiolkovsky “rocket equation” is presented to assess sensitivity of the method to minor changes in electrical conductivity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

In situ measurements of BrO during AASE II

BrO measured from the NASA ER-2 during Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) II exhibited a mean value (for 20-minute averages) of 5.4 +/- 0.3 pptv, with a standard deviation of 3.1 pptv. Ratios of BrO to available inorganic bromine (Br(sub y)) show only slight increases in polar regions relative to midlatitudes. A comparison between observed latitudinal and diurnal variations of this same ratio and that calculated by photochemical models shows reasonable agreement in behavior, but significant discrepancies in magnitude. It is unclear whether this difference is due to errors in measurements, models or both.

Avallone, L. M.↗

Lessons Learned from the Wide Field Camera 3 Flight Correlation

The Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) instrument was installed into the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) as part of the activities for STS (Space Transportation System)-125 (HST Servicing Mission 4). Initial model predictions for power and radiator temperature were not in good agreement with flight data during a relatively hot, stable period, with the flight power and temperatures being significantly higher than predictions. Significant efforts were undertaken to identify the causes of the discrepancies and to resolve the flight model correlation problems as the thermal vacuum test correlation indicated good agreement. The WFC3 thermal design performance has proven difficult to accurately predict, since the power dissipation on the radiator typically increases as the radiator temperature increases, due to a Thermo Electric Cooler (TEC) attached to the this radiator. This self beating continues until the radiative emissive capability is met for a given temperature, and only then does the system find a quasi-steady regime. Various other factors may also contribute to the radiator temperature, such as backloadlng from the observatory itself and the planet, local high-absorptivity regions near fasteners/holes, and temperature varying parasitic heat leaks from the instrument itself to the radiator. Each of these effects in turn may increase the radiator temperature, and furthermore the demand on the TEC.

Peabody, Hume L.↗

Polarization and Compressibility of Oblique Kinetic Alfven Waves

Even though solar wind, as a collisionless plasma, is properly described by the kineticMaxwell-Vlasov description, it can be argued that much of our understanding of solar wind observational data comes from an interpretation and numerical modeling which is based on a fluid description of magnetohydrodynamics. In recent years, there has been a significant interest in better understanding the importance of kinetic effects, i.e. the differences between the kinetic and usual fluid descriptions. Here we concentrate on physical properties of oblique kinetic Alfvn waves (KAWs), which are often recognized as one of the key ingredients in the solar wind turbulence cascade. We use three different fluid models with various degrees of complexity and calculate polarization and magnetic compressibility of oblique KAWs (propagation angle q = 88), which we compare to solutions derived from linear kinetic theory. We explore a wide range of possible proton plasma b = [0.1,10.0] and a wide range of length scales krL = [0.001,10.0]. It is shown that the classical isotropic two-fluid model is very compressible in comparison with kinetic theory and that the largest discrepancy occurs at scales larger than the proton gyroscale. We also show that the two-fluid model contains a large error in the polarization of electric field, even at scales krL 1. Furthermore, to understand these discrepancies between the two-fluid model and the kinetic theory, we employ two versions of the Landau fluid model that incorporate linear low-frequency kinetic effects such as Landau damping and finite Larmor radius (FLR) corrections into the fluid description. It is shown that Landau damping significantly reduces the magnetic compressibility and that FLR corrections (i.e. nongyrotropic contributions) are required to correctly capture the polarization.We also show that, in addition to Landau damping, FLR corrections are necessary to accurately describe the damping rate of KAWs. We conclude that kinetic effects are important even at scales which are significantly larger than the proton gyroscale krL 1.

Turbulence↗

Estimating short-period dynamics using an extended Kalman filter

An extended Kalman filter is used to estimate the parameters of a low-order model from aircraft transient response data. The low-order model is a state-space model derived from the short-period approximation of the longitudinal aircraft dynamics. The model corresponds to the pitch rate to stick force transfer function currently used in flying qualities analysis. The parameters are estimated from flight data as well as from a 6-DOF nonlinear simulation of the aircraft. These two estimates are then compared, and the discrepancies noted. The low-order model is able to satisfactorily match both flight data and simulation data from a high-order computer simulation.

Bauer, Jeffrey E.↗

Benchmarking FFTF LOFWOS Test# 13 using SAM code: Baseline model development and uncertainty quantification

The development and deployment of advanced reactors, such as the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), relies on sophisticated modeling tools to ensure the safety of the design under various transients. The predictive capability of these advanced modeling tools requires validation to garner trust in supporting the licensing of the advanced reactors. For this reason, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) in 2018 for the analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) Test #13.In this study, we present and discuss the benchmarking efforts of the modern system code SAM on the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. Further, the SAM baseline model was developed according to the benchmark specification, which included a detailed core model with reactivity feedback. Generally, good agreement was observed between the baseline results and benchmark measurements; however, discrepancies persisted, particularly in predicted fuel assembly coolant outlet temperatures. Utilizing the baseline model, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) were conducted with the assistance of various statistical learning and machine learning methods, including kernel density estimation, Gaussian processes, and Sobol indices. Following the baseline model prediction and UQ and SA results, we discuss the reasons for the simulation discrepancies and propose further improvements to the model. This benchmarking effort adheres to the best-estimate plus uncertainty approach and can serve as a valuable example for supporting risk-informed licensing of advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

OC7 Project Phase II: Code Comparison and Experimental Validation of Hydroelastic Effects and Member-Level Loads in Floating Structures

This paper presents results from Phase II of the OC7 project, focusing on hydroelastic modeling and member-level load prediction for a flexible floating offshore structure. Numerical predictions from 11 academic and industrial partners are validated against experimental measurements obtained from a 1:70-scale test of the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. A comprehensive set of verification and validation cases is examined. The results demonstrate that hydrodynamic added mass has a significant impact on predicted elastic natural frequencies. Under regular wave excitation, the numerical models reproduce platform motions and mooring line tensions with good accuracy. Member-level loads are also predicted with reasonable accuracy. Some discrepancies are observed for potential-flow models not accounting for higher-order effects associated with the instantaneous wetted surface.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Remote sensing and numerical modeling of suspended sediment in Laguna de Terminos, Campeche, Mexico

It is necessary to understand the complex physical processes at work in coastal lagoons in order to manage them effectively. Improved methods of data collection and analysis must be found to provide synoptic, timely hydrodynamic information because of the sheer size of some lagoons and the difficulty of acquiring in situ data (particularly in the tropics). This paper summarizes research to model salinity and suspended sediment distributions in Laguna de Terminos, Mexico, using (1) a coupled hydrodynamic and dispersion model and (2) analysis of two Landsat Thematic Mapper images collected on November 25, 1984 and April 24, 1987. Atmospherically corrected chromaticity data derived from Thermatic Mapper data were significantly correlated with modeled total suspended sediment concentrations for the two dates. Comparison between numerically modeled and remotely sensed suspended sediment maps at 1.5 x 1.5 km resolution yielded a covariation map useful for identifying areas of discrepancy between the remotely sensed data and model output.

Jensen, John R.↗

Global Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Paleo Data Assimilation Products and Climate Model Simulations Over the Last Millennium

Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.

Tejedor, E.↗

CRN Modeling of Ammonia RQL Combustion using a Partially-Stirred Reactor Approach

Ammonia is a promising alternative to hydrogen with high energy density and favorable storage and transport characteristics. However low flammability and a propensity for high nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions make direct utilization challenging. Recently, two-stage rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustion strategies have shown promise in achieving low NOx emissions with ammonia. In this approach, the rich stage serves to oxidize a portion of the fuel, while thermally decomposing as much of the remaining ammonia as possible, generating hydrogen. In the second (lean) stage, air is rapidly introduced, burning out the hydrogen and residual ammonia. Two-stage RQL combustion of ammonia has been investigated in the open literature both experimentally and numerically. In general, idealized chemical reactor network (CRN) models predict NOx concentrations below that of 2D/3D computational fluid dynamics models and experiments. The primary drivers of these discrepancies may be largely attributed to finite rate mixing non-adiabatic operation. The typical CRN model is comprised of a perfectly-stirred-reactor (PSR), followed by a plug-flow-reactor (PFR), meant to represent the flame, and post-flame zones, respectively. In the two-stage RQL approach two PSR-PFR networks are arranged sequentially, corresponding to the rich and lean stages, with secondary air injection in between. In the authors’ past work, this arrangement has demonstrated the significant sensitivity of exit NOx to the rich stage equivalence ratio, while the amount of secondary air injection was shown to be less critical. In this paper, the CRN model is extended to (1) include the impacts of heat loss and (2) utilize a partially-stirred-reactor (PaSR) approach to study the impacts of mixing on emissions performance. Varying amounts of heat loss are applied to the rich relaxation zone to understand emissions performance and changes to optimization of equivalence ratio and residence time. Premixed and non-premixed configurations are considered in the rich stage PaSR, with varying degrees of mixing intensity to study the interaction between mixing, transport, and kinetic timescales. Critically, the impact of mixing between hot products and secondary air injection is studied to understand practical injector needs. Results show unburnt ammonia leaving the rich stage as a primary contributor to NOx emissions – driven both by increased heat loss and reduced mixing rates. Furthermore, heat losses have shown to create conditions which are conducive to increased N2O formation in the lean stage. The results of this study will be considered in the context of developing optimized two-stage RQL combustors for ammonia..

advanced gas turbines↗

Beam dynamics corrections in the measurement of the anomalous precession frequency at the Muon $g-2$ experiment at Fermilab

The Muon $g-2$ experiment at Fermilab (E989) aims to measure the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon with an accuracy of 140 ppb (parts per billions). This accuracy, obtained by adding in quadrature a statistical and a systematic contribution of comparable value (100 ppb), will allow to reduce the experimental uncertainty (from the previous E821 experiment at BNL \cite{bnl}) of a factor of 4, and represents one of the most precise tests of the Standard Model (SM) theory of elementary particles. The first result on the Run-1 dataset \cite{prl} was released on April 7, 2021, showing a very good agreement with the previous result from BNL experiment, with a slightly better uncertainty. The corresponding experimental average increases the significance of the discrepancy between the measured and Standard Model prediction of 4.2$\sigma$ \cite{white_paper}.\\ \noindent The measured quantity is the muon magnetic anomaly a$_\mu$=$\frac{g_\mu-2}{2}$ where g$_\mu$ is the gyromagnetic factor of the muon. Dirac's equation predicts g$_\mu$ = 2, while radiative corrections, dominated by the QED contribution due to an exchange of a virtual photon, causes a per-mille correction on this quantity. By including all the SM contributions, a$_\mu$ is known at 370 ppb. The E989 experiment measures $a_\mu$ injecting positive muons with momentum of 3.1 GeV/$c$ polarized longitudinally in bunches (called $fills$) with an average rate of 12 Hz, in a storage ring of 14 meters diameter. Due to the parity violation in the weak muon decay, high energy positrons produced are emitted preferably in the muon's spin direction. By counting the number of positrons with energy greater then 1.7 GeV in function of the time, the frequency precession of the muon spin is measured, that together with the measurement of the magnetic field, allows to extract $a_\mu$. The positrons are detected with 24 electromagnetic calorimeters, that measure the energy and the arrival time of the positrons, each made of 54 crystals of lead fluoride (PbF$_2$) read by silicon photomultipliers (SiPM). Together with calorimeters, two tracking detectors are used to make non-destructive measurements of the muon beam characteristic by reconstructing the muon decay position extrapolating backward the decay positrons. The knowledge of the beam motion inside the ring plays a fundamental role in the analysis of $a_{\mu}$, where the measured anomalous precession frequency $\omega_a$ must be corrected for four main beam dynamics effects. A first correction is associated with the presence of an electric field responsible of the vertical focusing on the storage ring, where vertical direction is orthogonal to the orbit and horizontal direction is along the storage ring radius. Due to the oscillations in the vertical direction, the so called vertical betatron oscillations, a second correction is necessary to account for an average angle associated with the muon motion off the ideal orbit. A third correction is caused by lost muons in the ring which have a different spin phase at the injection respect to the decay ones. Finally, due to the correlation between the vertical and horizontal beam motion of the muons and the acceptance of the calorimeter, a correction (called ``phase-acceptance") arises. In Run1, due to the presence of two damaged resistors in one electrostatic quadrupole, this correction had a prominent role. The replacement of the damaged resistors before Run2 decreased this effect by one order of magnitude, and a further reduction in Run-3 was provided by an improved orbit.\\ \noindent The work of this Thesis focuses on the beam dynamics corrections on $\omega_a$. Due to the prominent role in Run-1 a special attention has been put to the phase-acceptance correction\footnote{The effect of this correction on the E821 BNL measurement of the $g-2$ has been evaluated to be within the quoted systematic error.}. Chapter \ref{ch:anomalous_magnetic_moment} introduces the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. Chapter \ref{ch:early_experiment} describes the history of the Muon $g-2$ experiments. Chapter \ref{ch:theory} discusses the Standard Model prediction and possible new physics scenario. Chapter \ref{ch:muon_g2_experiment} describes the E989 experiment, whose experimental technique and the apparatus are discussed focusing on the improvements needed to reach the final goal on $a_\mu$ measurement. The original work of the Thesis is discussed in the last 5 chapters. Chapter \ref{ch:experiment_technique} presents the analysis technique to extract $\omega_a$, Chapter \ref{ch:beam_dynamics} describes the beam dynamics in the E989 experiment, Chapter \ref{ch:beam_dynamics_correction} discusses the beam dynamics correction to $\omega_a$, and Chapter \ref{sec:pa_corr} focuses on the phase acceptance correction. Finally Chapter \ref{ch:run23_analysis_improvements} contains the Run-2/3 improvements which are expected to allow for an increased precision ons the beam dynamics co...

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Comparison of measurements and theory for backscatter from bare and snow-covered saline ice

C-band radar backscatter measurements were made on artificially grown sea ice during the winters of 1987-1988 and 1988-1989. These measurements were made on smooth, rough, and snow-covered saline ice. The measured sigma-deg(theta) of smooth saline ice (rms height less than 0.05 cm) disagreed with small perturbation method (SPM) surface scattering predictions. Using physical parameters of the ice in a simple layer model, it us shown that this discrepancy can be explained by scattering from beneath the surface. A thin (7-cm) dry snow cover had a significant influence on backscatter from the smooth ice sheet. This influence was due to scattering from particles within the snow, and can be predicted by a commonly used empirical layer model for snow. The results of backscatter measurements of a moderately rough saline ice sheet were found to agree with SPM predictions.

Bredow, Jonathan W.↗