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At least 577 records · Page 32

The Collaborative Seismic Earth Model: Generation 2

Geological interpretations, earthquake source inversions and ground motion modeling, among other applications, require models that jointly resolve crustal and mantle structure. With the second generation of the Collaborative Seismic Earth Model (CSEM2), we present a global multi-resolution tomographic Earth model that serves this purpose. The model evolves through successive regional- and global-scale refinements. While the first generation aggregated regional models, with this study, we ensure consistency between all individual submodels, resulting in a model that accurately explains wave propagation across scales. Recent regional tomographic models were incorporated, comprising continental-scale inversions for Asia and Africa, as well as regional inversions for the Western US, Central Andes, Iran, and Southeast Asia. Across all regional refinements, over 793,000 source-receiver pairs contributed. Moreover, the long-wavelength Earth model (LOWE) introduces large-scale structures outside of pre-existing local refinements. A full-waveform inversion for global anisotropic P-and S-wave speed structure over a total of 194 iterations with a minimum period of 50 s on a large data set of 1 hr of waveform data from 2,423 earthquakes and over 6 million source-receiver pairs ensures that regional updates in the crust and uppermost mantle translate into updates of deeper, global-scale structure. To test the performance of CSEM2, we evaluate waveform fits between observed and synthetic seismograms at 50 s for an independent data set on the global scale, and on the regional scale for lower periods. We accurately simulate waveforms within and across regional refinements, maintaining the original resolution of the submodels embedded in the global framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CO 2 rock physics modeling for reliable monitoring of geologic carbon storage

Monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) are crucial to ensure safe and long-term geologic carbon storage. Seismic monitoring is a key MVA technique that utilizes seismic data to infer elastic properties of CO 2 -saturated rocks. Reliable accounting of CO 2 in subsurface storage reservoirs and potential leakage zones requires an accurate rock physics model. However, the widely used CO 2 rock physics model based on the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation can substantially underestimate the influence of CO 2 saturation on seismic waves, leading to inaccurate accounting. We develop an accurate CO 2 rock physics model by accounting for both effects of the stress dependence of seismic velocities in porous rocks and CO 2 weakening on the rock framework. We validate our CO 2 rock physics model using the Kimberlina-1.2 model (a previously proposed geologic carbon storage site in California) and create time-lapse elastic property models with our new rock physics method. We compare the results with those obtained using the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation. Our innovative approach produces larger changes in elastic properties than the Biot-Gassmann results. Using our CO 2 rock physics model can replicate shear-wave speed reductions observed in the laboratory. Our rock physics model enhances the accuracy of time-lapse elastic-wave modeling and enables reliable CO 2 accounting using seismic monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Aggregate data‐driven dynamic modeling of active distribution networks with DERs for voltage stability studies

Abstract Electric distribution networks increasingly host distributed energy resources based on power electronic converter (PEC) toward active distribution networks (ADN). Despite advances in computational capabilities, electromagnetic transient models are limited in scalability because of their reliance on exact data about the distribution system and each of its components. Similarly, the use of the DER_A model, which is intended to examine the combined dynamic behavior of many DERs, is limited by the difficulty in parameterization. There is a need for improved dynamic models of DERs for use in large power system simulations for stability analysis. This paper proposes an aggregate model‐free, data‐driven approach for deriving a dynamic partitioned model (DPM) of ADNs. Detailed residential distribution feeders were first developed, including PEC‐based DERs and composite load models (CMLDs), from which the aggregated DPM was derived. The performance was evaluated through various case studies and validated against the detailed ADN model and state‐of‐the‐art DER_A model with CMLD. The data‐driven DPM achieved a of over 90%, accurately representing the aggregated dynamic behavior of ADNs. Furthermore, the DPM significantly accelerated the simulation process with a computational speedup of 68 times compared to the detailed ADN and a 3.5 times speedup compared to the DER_A CMLD model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predicting Damages to Remainder Parcels in Right-of-Way Acquisitions for Expanding Transportation Infrastructure: Using a Truncated Finite-Mixture Model

Right-of-way acquisition is a critical component of transportation infrastructure development. Transportation infrastructure projects cannot proceed without proper right-of-way acquisition or may face significant delays. State Departments of Transportation frequently acquire parcels of land for roadway expansion projects. A majority of these acquisitions can be partial takings, referring to a portion of a parcel that is acquired. The remainder of the property usually suffers economic changes due to the partial acquisition, which can be calculated as damage percentages. The damage percentage represents the extent to which the remaining land or property value has been diminished due to the acquisition. It reflects the remaining property value percentage that may have been lost or compromised due to the acquisition. Here, this study aims to provide a robust model to estimate damage percentages to the remainder parcels that may help state Departments of Transportation appraisers make early predictions about the damages in cases involving partial takings. The research uses 509 appraisal reports from the Tennessee Department of Transportation to identify the key parcel attributes that influence the percentage of damages. Three regression models are developed: a linear regression model, a finite-mixture model (FMM), and a truncated FMM with two latent classes. The modeling results show that the truncated FMM with two classes outperforms the other models. To validate the models, actual sales data is collected and analyzed for 59 properties, and the results suggest that the model predictions are fairly accurate. A predictive tool is developed based on the models to help appraisers anticipate right-of-way damages under different scenarios and can provide early predictions about the damages.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A foundation model for atomistic materials chemistry

Atomistic simulations of matter, especially those that leverage first-principles (ab initio) electronic structure theory, provide a microscopic view of the world, underpinning much of our understanding of chemistry and materials science. Over the last decade or so, machine-learned force fields have transformed atomistic modeling by enabling simulations of ab initio quality over unprecedented time and length scales. However, early machine-learning (ML) force fields have largely been limited by (i) the substantial computational and human effort required to develop and validate potentials for each particular system of interest and (ii) a general lack of transferability from one chemical system to the next. Here, we show that it is possible to create a general-purpose atomistic ML model, trained on a public dataset of moderate size, that is capable of running stable molecular dynamics for a wide range of molecules and materials. We demonstrate the power of the MACE-MP-0 model-and its qualitative and at times quantitative accuracy-on a diverse set of problems in the physical sciences, including properties of solids, liquids, gases, chemical reactions, interfaces, and even the dynamics of a small protein. The model can be applied out of the box as a starting or "foundation" model for any atomistic system of interest and, when desired, can be fine-tuned on just a handful of application-specific data points to reach ab initio accuracy. Establishing that a stable force-field model can cover almost all materials changes atomistic modeling in a fundamental way: experienced users obtain reliable results much faster, and beginners face a lower barrier to entry. Foundation models thus represent a step toward democratizing the revolution in atomic-scale modeling that has been brought about by ML force fields.

Batatia, Ilyes↗

Numerical Simulation and Experimental Comparison of System Analysis Module 1D Mixing Model for Cold Shock Transients in the Gallium Thermal-Hydraulic Mixing Facility

Abstract Liquid metals are being investigated as coolants in many advanced reactor designs because of their high thermal conductivity and effectiveness at high temperatures. However, they often pose challenges to reactor operation and safety because of the complex thermal mixing and stratification in the plenum of pool-type reactor designs. The advanced system analysis code System Analysis Module (SAM) currently under development at Argonne National Laboratory aims to develop and implement thermal mixing models to accurately capture these complex thermal fluid behaviors. In this study, the SAM thermal mixing model was compared against experimental data from the Gallium Thermal-Hydraulic Experiment facility, a scaled liquid metal test facility that uses gallium as a surrogate fluid to investigate the stratification and thermal mixing of low-Prandtl-number fluids in the upper plenum of a liquid metal-cooled reactor. Two cold shock transient cases were used: one with stable stratified flow (Ri = 32) and one with stronger thermal mixing (Ri = 0.5). The resultant temperatures were then compared with the experimental temperatures over the entire plenum to assess the ability of the mixing models to capture the thermal behavior and to better correspond mixing parameters to various flow scenarios. Generally, the zero-dimensional mixing model was more capable of capturing the bulk temperature of the component modeled assuming that an accurate mass flow rate was provided, but it was inherently unable to capture thermal gradients in space. The one-dimensional mixing model was capable of capturing that the thermal gradients provided accurate selection of the mixing coefficients. Further, the temperature at the outlet junction was compared over time for each of the mixing models with the recorded experimental temperature. The implemented mixing models demonstrated the ability to effectively capture the overall thermal behavior for stronger mixing scenarios but struggled with more stably stratified flows. It was found that a system analysis code's covering of the entire range of different operating conditions still remains a challenging task, and it is suggested that further model and closure improvements are necessary to accurately capture complex thermal mixing and stratification phenomena.

stratification↗

A RELAP5-3D Model of the Lobo Lead Loop

The goal of our research is to build upon the capability of RELAP5-3D to model molten lead systems. Molten lead has several potential uses in future advanced reactors like the lead fast reactor or fusion reactors that utilize dual-coolant lead lithium blankets. This potential for use in future generations of reactors highlights the necessity to develop molten lead models to ensure that they can accurately predict the thermohydraulic behavior. We have developed a RELAP5-3D model of the Lobo Lead Loop facility, located at the University of New Mexico, to verify the accuracy of RELAP5-3D via comparison to existing computational fluid dynamics results and analytical calculations. It was found that RELAP5-3D accurately calculated radiative heat transfer (within < 1%) when compared to theoretical calculations. In addition, pressure drop calculations done in RELAP5-3D demonstrated reasonable agreement within 20 kPa, mostly within ~7-15%, when compared to the computational fluid dynamics model of the facility developed by the University of New Mexico, and captured the dependence of pressure drop on flow velocity accurately. Finally, a hypothetical loss of flow transient was imposed on the RELAP5-3D model to determine the feasibility of performing a similar experiment with the Lobo Lead Loop. It was found that such an experiment could be possible as the RELAP5-3D model indicated that the temperatures of the fluid would not exceed limiting temperatures of the structure (1658 K) nor the maximum temperature of the electromagnetic pump inlet (823 K). Although there is not experimental data to begin validation, the model will be readily available for future validation studies when the experimental data is generated, especially as the model continues to evolve over time. Furthermore, the results so far demonstrate a promising first step in the verification/validation of the RELAP5-3D model of the Lobo Lead Loop.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Effects of spatiotemporal plasma power distribution on the modeling of ignition kernel evolution in quiescent and turbulent methane/air mixtures

Abstract The present work improves a phenomenological plasma-assisted combustion model by integrating the spatiotemporal distribution of plasma power density, thereby considering the evolution of plasma streamers in the modeling, and subsequently, better predicting the ignition kernel evolution. The improved phenomenological model is validated against experiments representing the plasma discharge and post-discharge ignition kernel evolution. Specifically, the new model demonstrates a more accurate prediction of ultrafast gas heating and O 2 dissociation during the plasma discharge, compared to the original model. In addition, the new model is found to closely match the experimental pressure wave and heated channel profiles post-discharge without the need for tuning the energy deposition (unlike the original model), highlighting its accuracy of post-discharge ignition kernel dynamics. The improved phenomenological model is then employed to investigate ignition kernel evolution for a stoichiometric methane-air discharge across various discharge gap configurations. Simulations reveal a non-uniform temperature and streamer distribution progressing from the electrode tips toward the center, contrasting uniform cylindrical discharges previously described in the original model. Streamer propagation is observed to be faster for larger gaps when maintained at the same average electric field for different discharge gaps. The tendency of smaller gaps to produce detached toroidal ignition kernels is observed, while larger gaps promote cylindrical and attached ignition kernels. Interactions between successive ignition kernels from consecutive discharges varied significantly, with the smallest gap (1 mm) promoting the quenching of the preceding ignition kernel due to the initial kernel–kernel separation. The intermediate gap (2 mm) promotes detached kernel growth. In contrast, in the largest gap (4 mm), kernels consistently combine and expand attached to electrodes. The impact of homogeneous isotropic turbulence is also explored, showing the persistence of ignition kernels early on but eventually quenching due to enhanced radical and heat losses with pronounced turbulence intensity.

Johnson, Praise Noah↗

Accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo using machine learning models

Here, this work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian inference often substitute computationally expensive high-fidelity models with machine learning models, thereby introducing approximation errors, our approach offers a computationally efficient alternative by augmenting high-fidelity models with low-fidelity ones within a hierarchical framework. The multilevel approach utilizes the low-fidelity machine learning model (MLM) for inexpensive evaluation of proposed samples thereby improving the acceptance of samples by the high-fidelity model. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from geometric multigrid hierarchy. We utilize an MLM to accelerate the coarse level sampling. Training machine learning model for the coarsest level significantly reduces the computational cost associated with generating training data and training the model. We present an MCMC algorithm to accelerate the coarsest level sampling using MLM and account for the approximation error introduced. We provide theoretical proofs of detailed balance and demonstrate that our multilevel approach constitutes a consistent MCMC algorithm. Additionally, we derive the expression for cost reduction due to machine learning model to facilitate cost analysis of the hierarchical sampling algorithm. Our technique is demonstrated on a standard benchmark inference problem in groundwater flow, where we estimate the probability density of a quantity of interest using a four-level MCMC algorithm. Our proposed algorithm accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two while achieving similar accuracy compared to sampling using the standard multilevel algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Density pedestal prediction model for tokamak plasmas

Abstract A model for the pedestal density prediction based on neutral penetration combined with pedestal transport is presented. The model is tested against a pedestal database of JET-ILW Type I ELMy H-modes showing good agreement over a wide range of parameters both in standalone modelling (using the experimental temperature profile) and in full Europed modelling that predicts both density and temperature pedestals simultaneously. The model is further tested for ASDEX Upgrade and MAST-U Type I ELMy H-modes and both are found to agree with the same model parameters as for JET-ILW. The JET-ILW experiment where the isotope of the main ion is varied in a D/T scan at constant gas rate and constant β N is successfully modelled as long as the separatrix density ( n e,sep ) and pedestal transport coefficient ratio ( D / χ ) are varied in accordance with the experimentally observed variation of n e,sep and the isotope dependence of D / χ found in gyrokinetic simulations. The predictions are found to be sensitive to n e,sep which is why the model is combined with an n e,sep model to predict the pedestal for the STEP fusion reactor.

Physics↗

A framework for testing soil carbon dynamics post land-use transition in a multisector dynamics model

Soil carbon plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Changes in land use can determine whether carbon is stored or is emitted into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, which has broad implications for the human and Earth systems. These feedbacks to the carbon cycle and their socio-economic drivers are modelled by many global multisector dynamics models to project future possibilities for the human-Earth system. One notable model of this class is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which uses a simplified process to model soil organic carbon (SOC) content after land-use transition across 384 land units. While the current GCAM soil carbon framework is based on scientific principles, it has not been tested against experimental data. This work examines rates of SOC change from GCAM input data. Specifically, first order rate constants derived from model inputs were compared to values from two syntheses to assess GCAM’s accuracy. Welch’s t-tests and linear models were used to determine if rate constants were consistent across all tested geographical areas and land-use transition types. While we found that there was general agreement on the direction and magnitude (i.e., rate) of SOC change, the rate constant derived from GCAM and empirical values differed strongly in a subset of specific instances. These results indicate that GCAM’s current SOC dynamics during land use transition successfully capture broad patterns of change in this critical carbon pool, but should be interpreted with caution at finer spatial scales. One potential cause of these discrepancies is our highly aggregated variable, soil timescale, which could be made more granular to improve accuracy. When using economically rooted multisector dynamics models, such as GCAM, it is critical to understand such model limitations for representing specific Earth system processes.

carbon↗

Harnessing large language models’ zero-shot and few-shot learning capabilities for regulatory research

Abstract Large language models (LLMs) are sophisticated AI-driven models trained on vast sources of natural language data. They are adept at generating responses that closely mimic human conversational patterns. One of the most notable examples is OpenAI's ChatGPT, which has been extensively used across diverse sectors. Despite their flexibility, a significant challenge arises as most users must transmit their data to the servers of companies operating these models. Utilizing ChatGPT or similar models online may inadvertently expose sensitive information to the risk of data breaches. Therefore, implementing LLMs that are open source and smaller in scale within a secure local network becomes a crucial step for organizations where ensuring data privacy and protection has the highest priority, such as regulatory agencies. As a feasibility evaluation, we implemented a series of open-source LLMs within a regulatory agency’s local network and assessed their performance on specific tasks involving extracting relevant clinical pharmacology information from regulatory drug labels. Our research shows that some models work well in the context of few- or zero-shot learning, achieving performance comparable, or even better than, neural network models that needed thousands of training samples. One of the models was selected to address a real-world issue of finding intrinsic factors that affect drugs' clinical exposure without any training or fine-tuning. In a dataset of over 700 000 sentences, the model showed a 78.5% accuracy rate. Our work pointed to the possibility of implementing open-source LLMs within a secure local network and using these models to perform various natural language processing tasks when large numbers of training examples are unavailable.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Modeling with uncertainty quantification reveals the essentials of a non-canonical algal carbon-concentrating mechanism

The thermoacidophilic red alga Cyanidioschyzon merolae survives its challenging environment likely in part by operating a carbon-concentrating mechanism (CCM). Here, we demonstrated that C. merolae 's cellular affinity for CO 2 is stronger than the affinity of its rubisco for CO 2 . This finding provided additional evidence that C. merolae operates a CCM while lacking the structures and functions characteristic of CCMs in other organisms. To test how such a CCM could function, we created a mathematical compartmental model of a simple CCM, distinct from those we have seen previously described in detail. The results of our modeling supported the feasibility of this proposed minimal and non-canonical CCM in C. merolae . To facilitate the robust modeling of this process, we measured and incorporated physiological and enzymatic parameters into the model. Additionally, we trained a surrogate machine-learning model to emulate the mechanistic model and characterized the effects of model parameters on key outputs. This parameter exploration enabled us to identify model features that influenced whether the model met the experimentally derived criteria for functional carbon concentration and efficient energy usage. Such parameters included cytosolic pH, bicarbonate pumping cost and kinetics, cell radius, carboxylation velocity, number of thylakoid membranes, and CO 2 membrane permeability. Our exploration thus suggested that a non-canonical CCM could exist in C. merolae and illuminated the essential features generally necessary for CCMs to function.

Steensma, Anne K. [Michigan State Univ., East Lans↗

CovTransformer: A transformer model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting

With hundreds of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the global population, there is an ongoing need for predicting and forecasting lineage frequencies and thus identifying rapidly expanding lineages. Accurate prediction would allow for more focused experimental efforts to understand pathogenicity of future dominating lineages and characterize the extent of their immune escape. Here, we first show that the inherent noise and biases in lineage frequency data make a commonly-used regression-based approach unreliable. To address this weakness, we constructed a machine learning model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting, called CovTransformer, based on the transformer architecture. We designed our model to navigate challenges such as a limited amount of data with high levels of noise and bias. We first trained and tested the model using data from the UK and the USA, and then tested the generalization ability of the model to many other countries and US states. Remarkably, the trained model makes accurate predictions two months into the future with high levels of accuracy both globally (in 31 countries with high levels of sequencing effort) and at the US-state level. Our model performed substantially better than a widely used forecasting tool, the multinomial regression model implemented in Nextstrain, demonstrating its utility in SARS-CoV-2 monitoring. Assuming a newly emerged lineage is identified and assigned, our test using retrospective data shows that our model is able to identify the dominating lineages 7 weeks in advance on average before they became dominant. Overall, our work demonstrates that transformer models represent a promising approach for SARS-CoV-2 forecasting and pandemic monitoring.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sparse non-Markovian Noise Modeling of Transmon-Based Multi-Qubit Operations

The influence of noise on quantum dynamics is one of the main factors preventing current quantum processors from performing accurate quantum computations. Sufficient noise characterization and modeling can provide key insights into the effect of noise on quantum algorithms and inform the design of targeted error protection protocols. However, constructing effective noise models that are sparse in model parameters, yet predictive can be challenging. In this work, we present an approach for effective noise modeling of multi-qubit operations on transmon-based devices. Through a comprehensive characterization of seven devices offered by the IBM Quantum Platform, we show that the model can capture and predict a wide range of single- and two-qubit behaviors, including non-Markovian effects resulting from spatiotemporally correlated noise sources. The model’s predictive power is further highlighted through multi-qubit dynamical decoupling demonstrations and an implementation of the variational quantum eigensolver. As a training proxy for the hardware, we show that the model can predict expectation values within a relative error of 0.5%; this is a sevenfold improvement over default hardware noise models. Through these demonstrations, we highlight key error sources in superconducting qubits and illustrate the utility of reduced noise models for predicting hardware dynamics.

open quantum systems & decoherence↗

Coupled Induction Machine and HVAC Models for Simulating HVAC Performance Considering Grid Dynamics in Buildings

This paper presents the development of novel models that integrate induction machines with HVAC equipment, such as pumps, heat pumps, and chillers, to analyze the impact of electrical parameters on the operational performance of thermo-fluid systems. The proposed model employs a coupling technique that captures the dynamic interactions between induction machines and HVAC systems. By integrating electrical, thermal, and mechanical dynamics, the models provide a comprehensive framework for simulating real-world scenarios, including interactions with the electrical grid. This achievement was made possible through the development of a Computationally Efficient and Accurate Induction Machine (CEAIM) model. Implemented using the equation-based Modelica language, the CEAIM model has been validated against experimental results, manufacturer data sheets, and various operating conditions. Its performance has been compared with existing induction machine models in the Modelica Standard Library (MSL), demonstrating superior accuracy and computational efficiency. The CEAIM model predicts torque, speed, and power consumption with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) ranging from 0.98 to 1 and a coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CVRMSE) between 0.27% and 6.67%. Additionally, CEAIM scales more efficiently than conventional MSL models, with a slower computational growth rate in large-scale simulations. After thorough validation of the CEAIM model, it was coupled with HVAC equipment as this approach provides a detailed multi-dimensional view of capturing electrical transients and mechanical performance. To support this, a case study was conducted to showcase its capabilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Case for Co-Designing Model Architectures with Hardware

While GPUs are responsible for training the vast majority of state-of-the-art deep learning models, the implications of their architecture are often overlooked when designing new deep learning (DL) models. As a consequence, modifying a DL model to be more amenable to the target hardware can significantly improve the runtime performance of DL training and inference. In this paper, we provide a set of guidelines for users to maximize the runtime performance of their transformer models. These guidelines have been created by carefully considering the impact of various model hyperparameters controlling model shape on the efficiency of the underlying computation kernels executed on the GPU. We find the throughput of models with “efficient” model shapes is up to 39% higher while preserving accuracy compared to models with a similar number of parameters but with unoptimized shapes.

Yin, Junqi↗

I Can’t Read All That! Improving the Usability of Semantic Models Using Concise, Ontology-Agnostic, Building-Specific Schemas

Semantic ontologies have enabled the creation of formalized, machine-readable descriptions of heterogenous building systems by providing dictionaries of well defined concepts that can be applied to model them. Within a semantic model of a particular building, a subset of an ontology's concepts may be applied in different ways to represent a particular perspective of the building's systems. How the concepts were applied can only be understood by examining the large amount of instance data within a semantic model, which leads to usability challenges. We propose a concise, ontology-agnostic method for defining building-specific schema (b-schema) graphs that summarize the structure and content of a semantic model. This approach provides a queryable and concise representation of the model's contents, separate from the instance data within a model, that can mitigate the challenges posed by the size and complexity of semantic models in processes such as visualization, querying, validation, and the use of large language models (LLMs). We validate our approach on semantic models based on the Brick and ASHRAE S223 ontologies. Results demonstrate that b-schemas significantly reduce the complexity of visual interpretation, accelerate SPARQL queries and SHACL validation, and improve LLM-based knowledge graph question answering.

Paul, Lazlo [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗