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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Microkinetic Modeling: A Tool for Rational Catalyst Design

The design of heterogeneous catalysts relies on understanding the fundamental surface kinetics that controls catalyst performance, and microkinetic modeling is a tool that can help the researcher in streamlining the process of catalyst design. Microkinetic modeling is used to identify critical reaction intermediates and rate-determining elementary reactions, thereby providing vital information for designing an improved catalyst. In this review, we summarize general procedures for developing microkinetic models using reaction kinetics parameters obtained from experimental data, theoretical correlations, and quantum chemical calculations. We examine the methods required to ensure the thermodynamic consistency of the microkinetic model. We describe procedures required for parameter adjustments to account for the heterogeneity of the catalyst and the inherent errors in parameter estimation. We discuss the analysis of microkinetic models to determine the rate determining reactions using the degree of rate control and reversibility of each elementary reaction. We introduce incorporation of Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi relations and scaling relations in microkinetic models and the effects of these relations on catalytic performance and formation of volcano curves. We review the analysis of reaction schemes in terms of the maximum rate of elementary reactions, and we outline a procedure to identify kinetically significant transition states and adsorbed intermediates. Here, we explore the application of generalized rate expressions for the prediction of optimal binding energies of important surface intermediates and to estimate the extent of potential rate improvement. We also explore the application of microkinetic modeling in homogeneous catalysis, electro-catalysis, and transient reaction kinetics. We conclude by highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the application of microkinetic modeling for catalyst design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SDSS/SEGUE spectral feature analysis for stellar atmospheric parameter estimation

Large-scale and deep sky survey missions are rapidly collecting a large amount of stellar spectra, which necessitate the estimation of atmospheric parameters directly from spectra and make it feasible to statistically investigate latent principles in a large data set. We present a technique for estimating parameters T{sub eff}, log g, and [Fe/H] from stellar spectra. With this technique, we first extract features from stellar spectra using the LASSO algorithm; then, the parameters are estimated from the extracted features using the support vector regression. On a subsample of 20,000 stellar spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) with reference parameters provided by the SDSS/SEGUE Spectroscopic Parameter Pipeline, estimation consistency are 0.007458 dex for log T{sub eff} (101.609921 K for T{sub eff}), 0.189557 dex for log g, and 0.182060 for [Fe/H], where the consistency is evaluated by mean absolute error. Prominent characteristics of the proposed scheme are sparseness, locality, and physical interpretability. In this work, each spectrum consists of 3821 fluxes, and 10, 19, and 14 typical wavelength positions are detected, respectively, for estimating T{sub eff}, log g, and [Fe/H]. It is shown that the positions are related to typical lines of stellar spectra. This characteristic is important in investigating physical indications from analysis results. Then, stellar spectra can be described by the individual fluxes on the detected positions (PD) or local integration of fluxes near them (LI). The aforementioned consistency is the result based on features described by LI. If features are described by PD, consistency is 0.009092 dex for log T{sub eff} (124.545075 K for T{sub eff}), 0.198928 dex for log g, and 0.206814 dex for [Fe/H].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Gaining insight into the $T\,_2^*$– T 2 relationship in surface NMR free-induction decay measurements

One of the primary shortcomings of the surface nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) freeinduction decay (FID) measurement is the uncertainty surrounding which mechanism controls the signal’s time dependence. Ideally, the FID-estimated relaxation time T$*\atop{2}$ that describes the signal’s decay carries an intimate link to the geometry of the pore space. In this limit the parameter T$*\atop{2}$ is closely linked to a related parameter T 2 , which is more closely linked to pore-geometry. If T$*\atop{2}$ T 2 the FID can provide valuable insight into relative pore-size and can be used to make quantitative permeability estimates. However, given only FID measurements it is difficult to determine whether T$*\atop{2}$ is linked to pore geometry or whether it has been strongly influenced by background magnetic field inhomogeneity. If the link between an observed T$*\atop{2}$ and the underlying T 2 could be further constrained the utility of the standard surface NMR FID measurement would be greatly improved. We hypothesize that an approach employing an updated surface NMR forward model that solves the full Bloch equations with appropriately weighted relaxation terms can be used to help constrain the T$*\atop{2}$ –T 2 relationship. Weighting the relaxation terms requires estimating the poorly constrained parameters T 2 and T 1 ; to deal with this uncertainty we propose to conduct a parameter search involving multiple inversions that employ a suite of forward models each describing a distinct but plausible T$*\atop{2}$ –T 2 relationship. We hypothesize that forward models given poor T 2 estimates will produce poor data fits when using the complex-inversion, while forward models given reliable T 2 estimates will produce satisfactory data fits. By examining the data fits produced by the suite of plausible forward models, the likely T$*\atop{2}$ –T 2 can be constrained by identifying the range of T 2 estimates that produce reliable data fits. Synthetic and field results are presented to investigate the feasibility of the proposed technique.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Systems and methods for estimation and prediction of battery health and performance

Systems and computer-implemented methods are used for analyzing battery information. The battery information may be acquired from both passive data acquisition and active data acquisition. Active data may be used for feature extraction and parameter identification responsive to the input data relative to an electrical equivalent circuit model to develop geometric-based parameters and optimization-based parameters. These parameters can be combined with a decision fusion algorithm to develop internal battery parameters. Analysis processes including particle filter analysis, neural network analysis, and auto regressive moving average analysis can be used to analyze the internal battery parameters and develop battery health metrics. Additional decision fusion algorithms can be used to combine the internal battery parameters and the battery health metrics to develop state-of-health estimations, state-of-charge estimations, remaining-useful-life predictions, and end-of-life predictions for the battery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Polar Liquid Cloud Base Detection Algorithms for High Spectral Resolution or Micropulse Lidar Data

Liquid layers in clouds affect their microphysical processes, as well as the atmospheric energy budget. However, explicit liquid cloud base height (LCBH) detection algorithms using ground-based instruments (e.g., lidars) are currently absent in the literature. Most studies use either fixed lidar parameter thresholds or cloud base height data products that do not distinguish between ice and liquid, all of which might introduce inconsistencies and errors in the resolved LCBHs. In this paper, two LCBH detection algorithms are presented; the first algorithm uses the high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) data, and yields satisfactory results. The second algorithm incorporates micropulse lidar (MPL) data for the LCBH detection. A 1-year long comparison of data gathered at Barrow, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, which includes other cloud base detection methodologies (ceilometer, MPL value-added product cloud base height, LCBHs detected using a fixed MPL depolarization threshold) emphasize the merits of the MPL algorithm.

Silber, Israel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Perturbation-Based Diagnosis of False Data Injection Attack Using Distributed Energy Resources

Modern smart grid relies on various sensor measurements for its operational control. In a successful false data injection attack, the attacker manipulates the measurements from the grid sensors such that undetected errors are introduced into the estimates of the system parameters leading to catastrophic situations. This paper proposes a novel perturbation based false data injection attack detection mechanism that utilizes inverter based distributed energy resources (DERs) to create low magnitude perturbation signal in the distribution system voltage that is inconsequential to the normal grid operation. Two voltage sensitivity analysis based algorithms are designed to identify the optimal set of DERs that can create the voltage perturbation signal of desired magnitude. An analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis is used to compute the magnitude of voltage perturbation signal at each node in a computationally efficient manner. Then, a detection mechanism is developed that checks for the presence of the perturbation sequence in each sensor measurement. A sensor measurement is deemed authentic if the voltage perturbation signal is present in the data. In case of sensor malfunction or cyber-attack, the perturbation signal will not be present in the measurement data. Performance of the proposed attack detection mechanism is validated via simulation of the IEEE 69 bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Scalable Proximity-Based Methods for Large-Scale Analysis of Atom Probe Data

Powered by recent advances in data acquisition technologies, today's state-of-the-art atom probe microscopes yield data sets with sizes ranging from a few million atoms to billions of atoms. Analysis of these atomic data sets within rea-sonable turnaround times is a pressing data analysis challenge for material scientists currently equipped with software systems that do not scale to these massive data sets. Here, we present the shared memory component of a larger ongoing effort to develop a multi-feature data analysis framework capable of analyzing atom probe data of all sizes and scales from desktop multicore machines to large-scale high-performance computing platforms with hybrid (shared and distributed memory) architectures. Our focus here is on a broad class of popular atom probe data analysis methods that rely on core time-consuming k-NN queries. We present a scalable, heuristic algorithm for k-NN queries using three-dimensional range trees. To demonstrate its efficacy, the k-NN algorithm is integrated with two use cases of atom probe data analysis methods and the resulting analysis times are shown to speedup by over 20X on a 32-core Cray XC40 node using workloads up to 8 million atoms, which is already beyond the at-scale capabilities of existing atom probe software. Using this k-NN algorithm, we also introduce a novel parameter estimation method for a class of cluster finding methods, called friends-of-friends (FoF) methods, to completely bypass their expensive pre-processing steps. In each case, we validate the results on a variety of control data sets.

Lu, Hao↗
DOE OSTI2024

MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is widely used by the climate science community to simulate planetary atmosphere and ocean circulations. A defining feature of the MITgcm is that it has been developed to be compatible with an algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool, TAF, enabling the generation of tangent-linear and adjoint models. These provide gradient information which enables dynamics-based sensitivity and attribution studies, state and parameter estimation, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Importantly, gradient information is essential for computing comprehensive sensitivities and performing efficient large-scale data assimilation, ensuring that observations collected from satellites and in-situ measuring instruments can be effectively used to optimize a large uncertain control space. As a result, the MITgcm forms the dynamical core of a key data assimilation product employed by the physical oceanography research community: Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate. Although MITgcm and ECCO are used extensively within the research community, the AD tool TAF is proprietary and hence inaccessible to a large proportion of these users. The new version 2 (MITgcm-AD v2) framework introduced here is based on the source-to-source AD tool Tapenade, which has recently been open-sourced. Another feature of Tapenade is that it stores required variables by default (instead of recomputing them) which simplifies the implementation of efficient, AD-compatible code. The framework has been integrated with the MITgcm model’s main branch and is now freely available.

Adjoints↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2016

Aging kinetics of levoglucosan orientational glass as a rate dispersion process and consequences for the heterogeneous dynamics view

Aging kinetics of a glass is currently modeled in terms of slowing of its α-relaxation dynamics, whose features are interpreted in terms of dynamic heterogeneity, i.e., formation and decay of spatially and temporally distinct nm-size regions. To test the merits of this view, we studied the calorimetric effects of aging an orientational glass of levoglucosan crystal in which such regions would not form in the same way as they form in liquids, and persist in structural glasses, because there is no liquid-like molecular diffusion in the crystal. By measuring the heat capacity, C{sub p}, we determined the change in the enthalpy, H, and the entropy, S, during two aging-protocols: (a) keeping the samples isothermally at temperature, T{sub a}, and measuring the changes after different aging times, t{sub a}, and (b) keeping the samples at different T{sub a}s and measuring the changes after the same t{sub a}. A model-free analysis of the data shows that as t{sub a} is increased (procedure (a)), H and S decrease according to a dispersive rate kinetics, and as T{sub a} is increased (procedure (b)), H and S first increase, reach a local maximum at a certain T{sub a}, and then decrease. Even though there is no translational diffusion to produce (liquid-like) free volume, and no translational-rotational decoupling, the aging features are indistinguishable from those of structural glasses. We also find that the Kohlrausch parameter, originally fitted to the glass-aging data, decreases with decrease in T{sub a}, which is incompatible with the current use of the aging data for estimating the α-relaxation time. We argue that the vibrational state of a glass is naturally incompatible with its configurational state, and both change on aging until they are compatible, in the equilibrium liquid. So, dipolar fluctuations seen as the α-relaxation would not be the same motions that cause aging. We suggest that aging kinetics is intrinsically dispersive with its own characteristic rate constant and it does not yield the α-relaxation rate. In this view, thermodynamic and other properties define the fictive temperature; the real or imaginary components of a dynamic property do not define it. While particles’ overall motions may still play a crucial role in (structural) glass physics, we conclude that translational diffusion alone is not a requirement for structure stabilization on aging of a kinetically frozen state.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interpretation of Lyman opacity measurements in JET with the ITER-like wall using a particle balance approach

Recent measurements of the Ly β /D α ratio in the JET ITER-like wall (ILW) divertor show comparatively more pronounced Ly β reabsorption relative to previous results in JET with the carbon wall (JET-C). At the outer horizontal target ion current rollover point a Ly β reabsorption rate of 60% is measured, increasing to 80% in more pronounced detachment, implying a Ly α reabsorption rate of 90%–98%. The radially resolved Ly β /D α measurements are used to constrain Lyman opacity corrections to atomic rate coefficients using the population escape factor technique in order to capture the local changes to the excited state population structure in the high Lyman opacity regions at and outboard of the outer strike point. To check the self-consistency of the Lyman opacity measurements, a detailed spectroscopic interpretation of the outer divertor particle balance is presented, in which the impact of opacity corrections to the Ly α inverse photon efficiency coefficients is assessed. A five-fold deficit in the estimated D + source rate obtained with optically thin plasma assumptions is reconciled once the opacity corrections are factored into the Ly α photon rate to ionization rate conversion. The experiment results are reproduced in EDGE2D-EIRENE density scan simulations in which an imposed ad hoc Lyman reabsorption rate is recovered spectroscopically using synthetic measurements, and a similar shortfall in the D + source rate estimates is reconciled using Lyman opacity corrected atomic data. The model limitations prevent a more detailed self-consistent analysis of the Lyman opacity impact on divertor parameters and detachment evolution, and hence motivate renewed efforts to re-establish routine exploitation of the photon transport modelling capabilities in the EIRENE code package. Lyman opacity corrections to atomic data coefficients are necessary for spectroscopic interpretation of the JET-ILW divertor plasma, with significant influence on the divertor plasma also a likely consequence of the presence of strong Ly α reabsorption. Finally, a scan of auxiliary heating powers spanning L-mode and H-mode conditions reveals a strong correlation of the measured Ly β opacity with the outer target temperature, suggesting new possibilities for using Lyman opacity measurements in establishing detachment scalings.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

An improved geodetic source model for the 1999 M W 6.3 Chamoli earthquake, India

Here, we introduce a distributed slip model for the 1999 M W 6.3 Chamoli earthquake of north India using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from both ascending and descending orbits and Bayesian estimation of confidence levels and trade-offs of the model geometry parameters. The results of fault-slip inversion in an elastic half-space show that the earthquake ruptured a |$9 _{ - 2.2}^{\circ + 3.4}$| northeast-dipping plane with a maximum slip of ~1 m. The fault plane is located at a depth of ~|$15.9_{ - 3.0}^{ + 1.1}$| and is ~120 km north of the Main Frontal Thrust, implying that the rupture plane was on the northernmost detachment near the mid-crustal ramp of the Main Himalayan Thrust. The InSAR-determined moment is 3.35 × 10 18 Nm with a shear modulus of 30 GPa, equivalent to M W 6.3, which is smaller than the seismic moment estimates of M W 6.4-6.6. Possible reasons for this discrepancy include the trade-off between moment and depth, uncertainties in seismic moment tensor components for shallow dip-slip earthquakes and the role of earth structure models in the inversions. The released seismic energy from recent earthquakes in the Garhwal region is far less than the accumulated strain energy since the 1803 M S 7.5 earthquake, indicating substantial hazard of future great earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation from Experiment Measurements to Modeling Approaches: A Case for SMR Steam Entrainment Testing

To license new and advanced reactor designs, regulators must be convinced that their unique safety cases—relative to existing large scale reactors—have been adequately addressed by the designed reactor protection systems. In water cooled small modular reactors (SMRs), droplet entrainment in steam flow has significant implications on the progression of accident scenarios due to its compact design features, which requires representative test data applicable to SMR designs. Computer code, modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and models require adequate verification, assessment, and qualification. This includes M&S results validation against scaled empirical data within allowable uncertainty bands to gain regulatory approvals during the various stages of reactor system design, demonstration, and commercialization. However, measurement uncertainty within the empirical datasets and test data applicability ranges requires careful consideration of M&S inputs (i.e., boundary conditions, and initial conditions), and verification and validation efforts. This study focuses on uncertainty quantification in designing scaled test facilities for SMR applications with appropriate measurements and a standard data-reduction method to estimate thermal hydraulics characteristics parameters that incorporate physics phenomena of interest. In addition, this study supports the evaluation model development and assessment process using M&S that interfaces with advanced computing tools and digital twin capabilities. This will allow synchronization between experiment and modeling approaches for droplet entrainment testing and analysis, improving diagnostics, prognostics, and decision-making to accelerate regulatory approval.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Building a Comprehensive Mill-Level Database for the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) Model of the U.S. Pulp and Paper Sector

Air emissions from the U.S. pulp and paper sector have been federally regulated since 1978; however, regulations are periodically reviewed and revised to improve efficiency and effectiveness of existing emission standards. The Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model for the pulp and paper sector is currently under development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and can be utilized to facilitate multi-pollutant, sectorbased analyses that are performed in conjunction with regulatory development. The model utilizes a multi-sector, multi-product dynamic linear modeling framework that evaluates the economic impact of emission reduction strategies for multiple air pollutants. The ISIS model considers facility-level economic, environmental, and technical parameters, as well as sector-level market data, to estimate the impacts of environmental regulations on the pulp and paper industry. Specifically, the model can be used to estimate U.S. and global market impacts of new or more stringent air regulations, such as impacts on product price, exports and imports, market demands, capital investment, and mill closures. One major challenge to developing a representative model is the need for an extensive amount of data. This article discusses the collection and processing of data for use in the model, as well as the methods used for building the ISIS pulp and paper database that facilitates the required analyses to support the air quality management of the pulp and paper sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Structure Learning and Statistical Estimation in Distribution Networks - Part II

Limited placement of real-time monitoring devices in the distribution grid, recent trends notwithstanding, has prevented the easy implementation of demand-response and other smart grid applications. Part I of this paper discusses the problem of learning the operational structure of the grid from nodal voltage measurements. In this work (Part II), the learning of the operational radial structure is coupled with the problem of estimating nodal consumption statistics and inferring the line parameters in the grid. Based on a Linear-Coupled(LC) approximation of AC power flows equations, polynomial time algorithms are designed to identify the structure and estimate nodal load characteristics and/or line parameters in the grid using the available nodal voltage measurements. Then the structure learning algorithm is extended to cases with missing data, where available observations are limited to a fraction of the grid nodes. The efficacy of the presented algorithms are demonstrated through simulations on several distribution test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Neural Network Informed Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

In subsurface flow modeling, quantifying the uncertainty of model parameters and the corresponding uncertainly on output quantities is a crucial task for groundwater management. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can take advantage of observed data to estimate parameters in a Bayesian setting. However, MCMC can be slow to converge and produce highly correlated samples when the dimensions of the parameters is high. Using gradients for the posterior distribution can help samplers explore the parameter space more efficiently, but obtaining gradients can be computationally challenging.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Spectral X-ray Radiography for Safeguards at Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Facilities: A Feasibility Study

The methods currently used by the International Atomic Energy Agency to account for nuclear materials at fuel fabrication facilities are time consuming and require in-field chemistry and operation by experts. Spectral X-ray radiography, along with advanced inverse algorithms, is an alternative inspection that could be completed noninvasively, without any in-field chemistry, with inspections of tens of seconds. The proposed inspection system and algorithms are presented here. The inverse algorithm uses total variation regularization and adaptive regularization parameter selection with the unbiased predictive risk estimator. Performance of the system is quantified with simulated X-ray inspection data and sensitivity of the output is tested against various inspection system instabilities. Material quantification from a fully-characterized inspection system is shown to be very accurate, with biases on nuclear material estimations of < 0.02%. It is shown that the results are sensitive to variations in the fuel powder sample density and detector pixel gain, which increase biases to 1%. Options to mitigate these inaccuracies are discussed.

Gilbert, Andrew J.↗