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NASA NTRS2006

Laboratory Astrophysics White Paper

Laboratory astrophysics and complementary theoretical calculations are the foundations of astronomical and planetary research and will remain so for many generations to come. From the level of scientific conception to that of the scientific return, it is our understanding of the underlying processes that allows us to address fundamental questions regarding the origins and evolution of galaxies, stars, planetary systems, and life in the cosmos. In this regard, laboratory astrophysics is much like detector and instrument development at NASA and NSF; these efforts are necessary for the astronomical research being funded by the agencies. The NASA Laboratory Astrophysics Workshop met at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) from 14-16 February, 2006 to identify the current laboratory data needed to support existing and future NASA missions and programs in the Astrophysics Division of the Science Mission Directorate (SMD). Here we refer to both laboratory and theoretical work as laboratory astrophysics unless a distinction is necessary. The format for the Workshop involved invited talks by users of laboratory data, shorter contributed talks and poster presentations by both users and providers that highlighted exciting developments in laboratory astrophysics, and breakout sessions where users and providers discussed each others' needs and limitations. We also note that the members of the Scientific Organizing Committee are users as well as providers of laboratory data. As in previous workshops, the focus was on atomic, molecular, and solid state physics.

Brickhouse, Nancy↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Dark Planets of the WASP-47 Planetary System

Exoplanet discoveries have demonstrated a vast range of planetary system architectures. The demographic of compact planetary systems are especially interesting from the perspective of planetary formation and the evolution of orbital dynamics. Another interesting demographic is that of giant planets in eccentric orbits, since these planets have likely had a dynamical history involving planet–planet scattering events. The WASP-47 system is particularly fascinating since it combines these two demographics, having both compact planetary orbits and a giant planet on an eccentric orbit within the system the habitable zone. Here we provide an analysis of the WASP-47 system from the perspective of atmospheric detection and characterization. We discuss the system architecture and the potential for additional long-period planets. We simulate expected phase variations as a function of planet orbital phase for the system due to the combined effect of the planets. We present an analysis of precision photometry of WASP-47 from the K2 mission, phased on each of the planets. The analysis rules out the detection of phase signatures for the two inner-most planets, enabling constraints upon their albedos and atmospheric properties. Our study concludes that WASP-47b is an example of a “dark” planet with a tentative geometric albedo of 0.016 and a 1σ upper limit of 0.17. The WASP-47e data are consistent with a broad range of albedos, but also show early evidence of having a relatively low albedo. The growing number of dark, short-period giant planets provide the framework of an ideal sample for studying low albedo dependence on atmospheric composition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Planets around pulsars - Implications for planetary formation

Data on planets around pulsars are summarized, and different models intended to explain the formation mechanism are described. Both theoretical and observational evidence suggest that very special circumstances are required for the formation of planetary systems around pulsars, namely, the prior presence of a millisecond pulsar with a close binary companion, probably a low mass main-sequence star. It is concluded that the discovery of two planets around PSR 1257+12 is important for better understanding the problems of dynamics and stellar evolution. The process of planetary formation should be learned through intensive studies of the properties of disks near young objects and application of techniques for detection of planets around main-sequence solar-type stars.

Bodenheimer, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2011

Post-Fragmentation Whole Genome Amplification-Based Method

This innovation is derived from a proprietary amplification scheme that is based upon random fragmentation of the genome into a series of short, overlapping templates. The resulting shorter DNA strands (<400 bp) constitute a library of DNA fragments with defined 3 and 5 termini. Specific primers to these termini are then used to isothermally amplify this library into potentially unlimited quantities that can be used immediately for multiple downstream applications including gel eletrophoresis, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR), comparative genomic hybridization microarray, SNP analysis, and sequencing. The standard reaction can be performed with minimal hands-on time, and can produce amplified DNA in as little as three hours. Post-fragmentation whole genome amplification-based technology provides a robust and accurate method of amplifying femtogram levels of starting material into microgram yields with no detectable allele bias. The amplified DNA also facilitates the preservation of samples (spacecraft samples) by amplifying scarce amounts of template DNA into microgram concentrations in just a few hours. Based on further optimization of this technology, this could be a feasible technology to use in sample preservation for potential future sample return missions. The research and technology development described here can be pivotal in dealing with backward/forward biological contamination from planetary missions. Such efforts rely heavily on an increasing understanding of the burden and diversity of microorganisms present on spacecraft surfaces throughout assembly and testing. The development and implementation of these technologies could significantly improve the comprehensiveness and resolving power of spacecraft-associated microbial population censuses, and are important to the continued evolution and advancement of planetary protection capabilities. Current molecular procedures for assaying spacecraft-associated microbial burden and diversity have inherent sample loss issues at practically every step, particularly nucleic acid extraction. In engineering a molecular means of amplifying nucleic acids directly from single cells in their native state within the sample matrix, this innovation has circumvented entirely the need for DNA extraction regimes in the sample processing scheme.

Benardini, James↗

DOE OSTI2016

DYNAMICAL ACCRETION OF PRIMORDIAL ATMOSPHERES AROUND PLANETS WITH MASSES BETWEEN 0.1 AND 5 M {sub ⊕} IN THE HABITABLE ZONE

In the early, disk-embedded phase of evolution of terrestrial planets, a protoplanetary core can accumulate gas from the circumstellar disk into a planetary envelope. In order to relate the accumulation and structure of this primordial atmosphere to the thermal evolution of the planetary core, we calculated atmosphere models characterized by the surface temperature of the core. We considered cores with masses between 0.1 and 5 M {sub ⊕} situated in the habitable zone around a solar-like star. The time-dependent simulations in 1D-spherical symmetry include the hydrodynamics equations, gray radiative transport, and convective energy transport. Using an implicit time integration scheme, we can use large time steps and and thus efficiently cover evolutionary timescales. Our results show that planetary atmospheres, when considered with reference to a fixed core temperature, are not necessarily stable, and multiple solutions may exist for one core temperature. As the structure and properties of nebula-embedded planetary atmospheres are an inherently time-dependent problem, we calculated estimates for the amount of primordial atmosphere by simulating the accretion process of disk gas onto planetary cores and the subsequent evolution of the embedded atmospheres. The temperature of the planetary core is thereby determined from the computation of the internal energy budget of the core. For cores more massive than about one Earth mass, we obtain that a comparatively short duration of the disk-embedded phase (∼10{sup 5} years) is sufficient for the accumulation of significant amounts of hydrogen atmosphere that are unlikely to be removed by later atmospheric escape processes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1985

Collisionless shocks in the heliosphere: Reviews of current research

The present conference on heliospheric collisionless shocks considers such macrostructure-, microstructure-, and particle acceleration-related topics as interplanetary shock phenomena near and within 1 AU, as well as beyond, planetary bow shocks, shock formation and evolution in the solar atmosphere, MHD and gasdynamic theories for planetary bow waves, and subcritical collisionless shock waves. Also discussed are ion reflection, gyration, and dissipation at supercritical shocks, the numerical simulation of quasi-perpendicular collisionless shocks, electron distributions near collisionless shocks, the microtheory of collisionless shock current layers, plasma waves and instabilities, the electron foreshock, upstream suprathermal ions, and both diffusive and shock drift acceleration.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

DOE OSTI2016

CONSTRAINING THE RADIATION AND PLASMA ENVIRONMENT OF THE KEPLER CIRCUMBINARY HABITABLE-ZONE PLANETS

The discovery of many planets using the Kepler telescope includes 10 planets orbiting eight binary stars. Three binaries, Kepler-16, Kepler-47, and Kepler-453, have at least one planet in the circumbinary habitable zone (BHZ). We constrain the level of high-energy radiation and the plasma environment in the BHZ of these systems. With this aim, BHZ limits in these Kepler binaries are calculated as a function of time, and the habitability lifetimes are estimated for hypothetical terrestrial planets and/or moons within the BHZ. With the time-dependent BHZ limits established, a self-consistent model is developed describing the evolution of stellar activity and radiation properties as proxies for stellar aggression toward planetary atmospheres. Modeling binary stellar rotation evolution, including the effect of tidal interaction between stars in binaries, is key to establishing the environment around these systems. We find that Kepler-16 and its binary analogs provide a plasma environment favorable for the survival of atmospheres of putative Mars-sized planets and exomoons. Tides have modified the rotation of the stars in Kepler-47, making its radiation environment less harsh in comparison to the solar system. This is a good example of the mechanism first proposed by Mason et al. Kepler-453 has an environment similar to that of the solar system with slightly better than Earth radiation conditions at the inner edge of the BHZ. These results can be reproduced and even reparameterized as stellar evolution and binary tidal models progress, using our online tool http://bhmcalc.net.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2000

Understanding Microbial Contributions to Planetary Atmosphere

Should our search of distant, extrasolar planetary atmospheres encounter evidence of life, that evidence will most likely be the gaseous products of microorganisms. Our biosphere was exclusively microbial for over 80 percent of its history and, even today, microbes strongly influence atmospheric composition. Life's greatest environmental impact arises from its capacity for harvesting energy and creating organic matter. Microorganisms catalyze the equilibration of C, S and transition metal species at temperatures where such reactions can be very slow in the absence of life. Sunlight has been harvested through photosynthesis to create enormous energy reservoirs that exist in the form of coexisting reservoirs of reduced, organic C and S stored in Earth's crust, and highly oxidized species (oxygen, sulfate and ferric iron) stored in the crust, oceans and atmosphere. Our civilization taps that storehouse of energy by burning fossil fuels. As astrobiologists, we identify the chemical consequences of distant biospheres as expressed in the atmospheres of their planets. Our approach must recognize that planets, biospheres and atmospheres evolve and change. For example, a tectonically more active early Earth hosted a thermophilic, non-photosynthetic biosphere and a mildly reducing, carbon dioxide-rich and oxygen-poor atmosphere. Microorganisms acquired energy by consuming hydrogen and sulfide and producing a broad array of reduced C and S gases, most notably, methane. Later, diverse types of bacterial photosynthesis developed that enhanced productivity but were incapable of splitting water to produce oxygen. Later, but still prior to 2.6 billion years ago, oxygenic photosynthesis developed. We can expect to encounter distant biospheres that represent various stages of evolution and that coexist with atmospheres ranging from mildly reducing to oxidizing compositions. Accordinaly, we must be prepared to interpret a broad range of atmospheric compositions, all containing signatures of life. Remarkably little is known about the composition of our own earlier atmosphere, particularly prior to the rise of oxygen levels some 2.0 to 2.2 billion years ago. Thus, field and laboratory observations and theoretical simulations should be conducted to examine the relationships between the structure and function of microbial ecosystems and their gaseous products. Ecosystems that are analogs of our ancient biosphere (e.g., based upon chemosynthesis or non-oxygenic photosynthesis, thermophilic and subsurface communities, etc.) should be included. Because key environmental parameters such as temperature and levels of hydrogen, carbon dioxide and oxygen varied during planetary evolution, their consequences for microbial ecosystems should be explored.

DesMarais, David J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Pristine Igneous Rocks and the Early Differentiation of Planetary Materials

Our studies are highly interdisciplinary, but are focused on the processes and products of early planetary and asteroidal differentiation, especially the genesis of the ancient lunar crust. Most of the accessible lunar crust consists of materials hybridized by impact-mixing. Rare pristine (unmixed) samples reflect the original genetic diversity of the early crust. We studied the relative importance of internally generated melt (including the putative magma ocean) versus large impact melts in early lunar magmatism, through both sample analysis and physical modeling. Other topics under investigation included: lunar and SNC (martian?) meteorites; igneous meteorites in general; impact breccias, especially metal-rich Apollo samples and polymict eucrites; effects of regolith/megaregolith insulation on thermal evolution and geochronology; and planetary bulk compositions and origins. We investigated the theoretical petrology of impact melts, especially those formed in large masses, such as the unejected parts of the melts of the largest lunar and terrestrial impact basins. We developed constraints on several key effects that variations in melting/displacement ratio (a strong function of both crater size and planetary g) have on impact melt petrology. Modeling results indicate that the impact melt-derived rock in the sampled, megaregolith part of the Moon is probably material that was ejected from deeper average levels than the non-impact-melted material (fragmental breccias and unbrecciated pristine rocks). In the largest lunar impacts, most of the impact melt is of mantle origin and avoids ejection from the crater, while most of the crust, and virtually all of the impact-melted crust, in the area of the crater is ejected. We investigated numerous extraordinary meteorites and Apollo rocks, emphasizing pristine rocks, siderophile and volatile trace elements, and the identification of primary partial melts, as opposed to partial cumulates. Apollo 15 sample 15434,28 is an extraodinarily large glass spherule, nearly if not entirely free of meteoritic contamination, and provides insight into the diversity of mare basalts in the Hadley-Apennine region. Apollo 14 sample 14434 is in many respects a new rock type, intermediate between nonmare gabbronorites and mare basalts. We helped to both plan and implement a consortium to study the Yamato-793605 SNC/martian meteorite.

Warren, Paul H.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Spectroscopic Evolution of Disintegrating Planetesimals: Minute to Month Variability in the Circumstellar Gas Associated with WD 1145+017

With the recent discovery of transiting planetary material around WD 1145+017, a critical target has been identified that links the evolution of planetary systems with debris disks and their accretion onto the star. We present a series of observations, five epochs over a year, taken with Keck and the VLT, which for the first time show variability of circumstellar absorption in the gas disk surrounding WD 1145+017 on timescales of minutes to months. Circumstellar absorption is measured in more than 250 lines of 14 ions among 10 different elements associated with planetary composition, e.g., O, Mg, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Ni. Broad circumstellar gas absorption with a velocity spread of 225 km s{sup −1} is detected, but over the course of a year blueshifted absorption disappears, while redshifted absorption systematically increases. A correlation of equivalent width and oscillator strength indicates that the gas is not highly optically thick (median τ ≈ 2). We discuss simple models of an eccentric disk coupled with magnetospheric accretion to explain the basic observed characteristics of these high-resolution and high signal-to-noise observations. Variability is detected on timescales of minutes in the two most recent observations, showing a loss of redshifted absorption for tens of minutes, coincident with major transit events and consistent with gas hidden behind opaque transiting material. This system currently presents a unique opportunity to learn how the gas causing the spectroscopic, circumstellar absorption is associated with the ongoing accretion evidenced by photospheric contamination, as well as the transiting planetary material detected in photometric observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Extra Solar Planetary Imaging Coronagraph and Science Requirements for the James Webb Telescope Observatory

1) Extra solar planetary imaging coronagraph. Direct detection and characterization of Jovian planets, and other gas giants, in orbit around nearby stars is a necessary precursor to Terrestrial Planet Finder 0 in order to estimate the probability of Terrestrial planets in our stellar neighborhood. Ground based indirect methods are biased towards large close in Jovian planets in solar systems unlikely io harbor Earthlike planets. Thus to estimate the relative abundances of terrestrial planets and to determine optimal observing strategies for TPF a pathfinder mission would be desired. The Extra-Solar Planetary Imaging Coronagraph (EPIC) is such a pathfinder mission. Upto 83 stellar systems are accessible with a 1.5 meter unobscured telescope and coronagraph combination located at the Earth-Sun L2 point. Incorporating radiometric and angular resolution considerations show that Jovians could be directly detected (5 sigma) in the 0.5 - 1.0 micron band outside of an inner working distance of 5/D with integration times of -10 - 100 hours per observation. The primary considerations for a planet imager are optical wavefront quality due to manufacturing, alignment, structural and thermal considerations. pointing stability and control, and manufacturability of coronagraphic masks and stops to increase the planetary-to- stellar contrast and mitigate against straylight. Previously proposed coronagraphic concepts are driven to extreme tolerances. however. we have developed and studied a mission, telescope and coronagraphic detection concept, which is achievable in the time frame of a Discovery class NASA mission. 2) Science requirements for the James Webb Space Telescope observatory. The James Webb Space Observatory (JWST) is an infrared observatory, which will be launched in 201 1 to an orbit at L2. JWST is a segmented, 18 mirror segment telescope with a diameter of 6.5 meters, and a clear aperture of 25 mA2. The telescope is designed to conduct imaging and spectroscopic observations from 0.6-27 microns. The primary mirror find and understand predicted first light objects, observe galaxies back to their earliest precursors so that we can understand their growth and evolution, unravel the birth and early evolution of stars and planetary systems, and study planetary systems and the origins of life. In this paper we discuss the science goals for JWST in the context of the performance requirements they levy on the observatory.

Clampin, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ca-isotopes as a robust tracer of magmatic differentiation

The large mass difference (~10%) between the two most abundant isotopes of calcium, 40 Ca and 44 Ca, gives Ca great potential in tracking mass-dependent fractionation during magmatic processes. Resolvable Ca-isotope fractionation during fractional crystallization of magma, particularly by feldspar in evolved melts, has been theoretically inferred but not robustly tested in nature. To further explore the effects of magmatic differentiation on Ca-isotope systematics, we studied the late-Permian alkaline igneous suite of the Øyangen Caldera, Oslo Rift, Norway, consisting of volcanic and intrusive units ranging from basanitic to rhyolitic compositions. Major and trace element variations and modeling demonstrate that the main series of samples (N = 21), including basanites, ring-dyke syenites, and central-dome syenites, likely documents a co-genetic and closed-system fractional crystallization sequence. Our data show minimal δ 44/40 Ca variation (< 0.05 ‰) in the intermediate magma and a marked increase in δ 44/40 Ca in the felsic magma of the Øyangen Caldera (from 0.62 ± 0.02 ‰ to 1.15 ± 0.03 ‰ relative to Ca standard, SRM915a). The systematic increase is best explained by equilibrium isotopic fractionation dominated by alkali feldspar in the fractionating mineral assemblage. This is further supported by strong correlations between δ 44/40 Ca, CaO, and Eu/Eu* in the main-series samples. Implementing a Monte Carlo approach, isotopic modeling of the liquid line of descent using Rayleigh fractionation is highly consistent with the observed Ca-isotope evolution. For the first time, we confirm prominent Ca stable isotope fractionation in felsic-stage differentiation of alkaline magma and constrain the isotope fractionation factors of plagioclase and K-feldspar. Integrated with extant estimations on mineral fractionation factors from the literature, our results suggest increasing fractionation effects of rock-forming minerals with decreasing Ca content. Finally, the affirmation of significant Ca-isotope fractionation in alkaline magma by feldspar empowers the application of Ca as a versatile tracer of crustal evolution, allowing further tests in other magmatic conditions across various planetary objects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Exobiology experiments for Earth-orbital platforms

Low-gravity (microgravity) studies relevant to prebiotic evolution and the history of the biogenic elements (C, H, N, O, P, S) are particularly suited to orbital platforms. Relevant to these topics are phenomena such as gas-particle interactions (e.g., formation of organic aerosols via photolytic reactions) including nucleation, condensation, evaporation, adsorption, and catalytic reactions on surfaces; and, small-particle or grain interactions (e.g., growth of interstellar dust particles and planetesimals) including processes such as aggregation (or coagulation), scavenging, and collisions. Both gas-particle and grain (i.e., dust, crystals, organic aerosols, etc.) interactions studies can benefit from microgravity and are pertinent to studies in the areas of chemical evolution in the solar nebula, the interstellar medium, and planetary atmospheres; growth of planetesimals; and prebiotic evolution. In general, the microgravity environment allows for long duration and controlled simulations of processes occurring in exobiologically significant systems such as Titan's atmosphere, interstellar dust clouds, and the solar nebula in which gas-particle or particle-particle interactions play a significant role.

Huntington, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Minimum-Mass Surface Density of the Solar Nebula using the Disk Evolution Equation

The Hayashi minimum-mass power law representation of the pre-solar nebula (Hayashi 1981, Prog. Theo. Phys.70,35) is revisited using analytic solutions of the disk evolution equation. A new cumulative-planetary-mass-model (an integrated form of the surface density) is shown to predict a smoother surface density compared with methods based on direct estimates of surface density from planetary data. First, a best-fit transcendental function is applied directly to the cumulative planetary mass data with the surface density obtained by direct differentiation. Next a solution to the time-dependent disk evolution equation is parametrically adapted to the planetary data. The latter model indicates a decay rate of r -1/2 in the inner disk followed by a rapid decay which results in a sharper outer boundary than predicted by the minimum mass model. The model is shown to be a good approximation to the finite-size early Solar Nebula and by extension to extra solar protoplanetary disks.

Davis, Sanford S.↗

DOE OSTI2015

TILTING JUPITER (A BIT) AND SATURN (A LOT) DURING PLANETARY MIGRATION

We study the effects of planetary late migration on the gas giants’ obliquities. We consider the planetary instability models from Nesvorný and Morbidelli, in which the obliquities of Jupiter and Saturn can be excited when spin–orbit resonances occur. The most notable resonances occur when the s{sub 7} and s{sub 8} frequencies, changing as a result of planetary migration, become commensurate with the precession frequencies of Jupiter’s and Saturn’s spin vectors. We show that Jupiter may have obtained its present obliquity by crossing of the s{sub 8} resonance. This would set strict constraints on the character of migration during the early stage. Additional effects on Jupiter’s obliquity are expected during the last gasp of migration when the s{sub 7} resonance was approached. The magnitude of these effects depends on the precise value of the Jupiter’s precession constant. Saturn’s large obliquity was likely excited by capture into the s{sub 8} resonance. This probably happened during the late stage of planetary migration when the evolution of the s{sub 8} frequency was very slow, and the conditions for capture into the spin–orbit resonance with s{sub 8} were satisfied. However, whether or not Saturn is in the spin–orbit resonance with s{sub 8} at the present time is not clear because the existing observations of Saturn’s spin precession and internal structure models have significant uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

AEOLUS: A MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO CODE FOR MAPPING ULTRACOOL ATMOSPHERES. AN APPLICATION ON JUPITER AND BROWN DWARF HST LIGHT CURVES

Deducing the cloud cover and its temporal evolution from the observed planetary spectra and phase curves can give us major insight into the atmospheric dynamics. In this paper, we present Aeolus, a Markov chain Monte Carlo code that maps the structure of brown dwarf and other ultracool atmospheres. We validated Aeolus on a set of unique Jupiter Hubble Space Telescope (HST) light curves. Aeolus accurately retrieves the properties of the major features of the Jovian atmosphere, such as the Great Red Spot and a major 5 μm hot spot. Aeolus is the first mapping code validated on actual observations of a giant planet over a full rotational period. For this study, we applied Aeolus to J- and H-band HST light curves of 2MASS J21392676+0220226 and 2MASS J0136565+093347. Aeolus retrieves three spots at the top of the atmosphere (per observational wavelength) of these two brown dwarfs, with a surface coverage of 21% ± 3% and 20.3% ± 1.5%, respectively. The Jupiter HST light curves will be publicly available via ADS/VIZIR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploiting timing capabilities of the CHEOPS mission with warm-Jupiter planets

ABSTRACT We present 17 transit light curves of seven known warm-Jupiters observed with the CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS). The light curves have been collected as part of the CHEOPS Guaranteed Time Observation (GTO) program that searches for transit-timing variation (TTV) of warm-Jupiters induced by a possible external perturber to shed light on the evolution path of such planetary systems. We describe the CHEOPS observation process, from the planning to the data analysis. In this work, we focused on the timing performance of CHEOPS, the impact of the sampling of the transit phases, and the improvement we can obtain by combining multiple transits together. We reached the highest precision on the transit time of about 13–16 s for the brightest target (WASP-38, G = 9.2) in our sample. From the combined analysis of multiple transits of fainter targets with G ≥ 11, we obtained a timing precision of ∼2 min. Additional observations with CHEOPS, covering a longer temporal baseline, will further improve the precision on the transit times and will allow us to detect possible TTV signals induced by an external perturber.

Borsato, L. (ORCID:0000000300669268)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical Instabilities in Systems of Multiple Short-period Planets Are Likely Driven by Secular Chaos: A Case Study of Kepler-102

We investigated the dynamical stability of high-multiplicity Kepler and K2 planetary systems. Our numerical simulations find instabilities in ∼20% of the cases on a wide range of timescales (up to 5 × 10{sup 9} orbits) and over an unexpectedly wide range of initial dynamical spacings. To identify the triggers of long-term instability in multiplanet systems, we investigated in detail the five-planet Kepler-102 system. Despite having several near-resonant period ratios, we find that mean-motion resonances are unlikely to directly cause instability for plausible planet masses in this system. Instead, we find strong evidence that slow inward transfer of angular momentum deficit (AMD) via secular chaos excites the eccentricity of the innermost planet, Kepler-102 b, eventually leading to planet–planet collisions in ∼80% of Kepler-102 simulations. Kepler-102 b likely needs a mass ≳0.1 M {sub ⊕}, hence a bulk density exceeding about half Earth’s, in order to avoid dynamical instability. To investigate the role of secular chaos in our wider set of simulations, we characterize each planetary system’s AMD evolution with a “spectral fraction” calculated from the power spectrum of short integrations (∼5 × 10{sup 6} orbits). We find that small spectral fractions (≲0.01) are strongly associated with dynamical stability on long timescales (5 × 10{sup 9} orbits) and that the median time to instability decreases with increasing spectral fraction. Our results support the hypothesis that secular chaos is the driver of instabilities in many nonresonant multiplanet systems and also demonstrate that the spectral analysis method is an efficient numerical tool to diagnose long-term (in)stability of multiplanet systems from short simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗