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Risk assessment of wellbore leakage during underground hydrogen storage
The expansion of renewable energy sources would require large-scale energy storage options to overcome the intermittent nature of these sources. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offers a scalable and practical energy storage solution. These reservoirs are chosen for their availability and large capacity, but the unique properties of hydrogen raise concerns about potential leakage pathways, particularly through wellbores. In this study, we develop and apply, for the first time, reduced-order models (ROMs) specifically designed for efficient leakage risk prediction in UHS systems operating in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Using 3,000 high-fidelity simulation scenarios, we examine the influence of 11 key parameters, including reservoir and aquifer depths, wellbore permeability and porosity, initial saturations of water, oil and gas fractions (hydrogen, light, intermediate, and heavy hydrocarbons), reservoir pressure multiplier, and the aquifer-to-reservoir volume ratio, to simulate leakage behavior over a 1,000-year timescale. We train ROMs using a two-step classification-regression approach, achieving R 2 values exceeding 99 % across all targets. These ROMs effectively capture the leakage evolution and identify critical controls of leakage, guiding the design of mitigation strategies. Results indicate that gas leakage occurs in about 27 % of scenarios as early as five years post-operation, reaching volumes of up to 106 ft3. Oil leakage is less frequent (~17 %) and typically begins decades later. Our findings also show that hydrogen often migrates first, owing to its smaller molecular size and higher buoyancy, followed by heavier hydrocarbons. Over time, these heavier components contribute significantly to the total leaked volume, reinforcing the need for targeted monitoring and remediation strategies. Our analysis highlights that deeper storage reservoirs, shallower aquifers, and low-permeability wellbores significantly reduce leakage risks. In conclusion, this work offers a robust framework for risk-informed UHS deployment, supporting energy security through reliable large-scale hydrogen storage while safeguarding environmental integrity.
Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Analysis
This Technical Publication (TP) is meant to address a number of topics related to the application of Monte Carlo simulation to launch vehicle design and requirements analysis. Although the focus is on a launch vehicle application, the methods may be applied to other complex systems as well. The TP is organized so that all the important topics are covered in the main text, and detailed derivations are in the appendices. The TP first introduces Monte Carlo simulation and the major topics to be discussed, including discussion of the input distributions for Monte Carlo runs, testing the simulation, how many runs are necessary for verification of requirements, what to do if results are desired for events that happen only rarely, and postprocessing, including analyzing any failed runs, examples of useful output products, and statistical information for generating desired results from the output data. Topics in the appendices include some tables for requirements verification, derivation of the number of runs required and generation of output probabilistic data with consumer risk included, derivation of launch vehicle models to include possible variations of assembled vehicles, minimization of a consumable to achieve a two-dimensional statistical result, recontact probability during staging, ensuring duplicated Monte Carlo random variations, and importance sampling.
High-Fidelity Multi-Rotor Unmanned Aircraft System Simulation Development for Trajectory Prediction Under Off-Nominal Flight Dynamics
The NASA Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) project is conducting research to enable civilian low-altitude airspace and UAS operations. A goal of this project is to develop probabilistic methods to quantify risk during failures and off nominal flight conditions. An important part of this effort is the reliable prediction of feasible trajectories during off-nominal events such as control failure, atmospheric upsets, or navigation anomalies that can cause large deviations from the intended flight path or extreme vehicle upsets beyond the normal flight envelope. Few examples of high-fidelity modeling and prediction of off-nominal behavior for small UAS (sUAS) vehicles exist, and modeling requirements for accurately predicting flight dynamics for out-of-envelope or failure conditions are essentially undefined. In addition, the broad range of sUAS aircraft configurations already being fielded presents a significant modeling challenge, as these vehicles are often very different from one another and are likely to possess dramatically different flight dynamics and resultant trajectories and may require different modeling approaches to capture off-nominal behavior. NASA has undertaken an extensive research effort to define sUAS flight dynamics modeling requirements and develop preliminary high fidelity six degree-of-freedom (6-DOF) simulations capable of more closely predicting off-nominal flight dynamics and trajectories. This research has included a literature review of existing sUAS modeling and simulation work as well as development of experimental testing methods to measure and model key components of propulsion, airframe and control characteristics. The ultimate objective of these efforts is to develop tools to support UTM risk analyses and for the real-time prediction of off-nominal trajectories for use in the UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF). This paper focuses on modeling and simulation efforts for a generic quad-rotor configuration typical of many commercial vehicles in use today. An overview of relevant off-nominal multi-rotor behaviors will be presented to define modeling goals and to identify the prediction capability lacking in simplified models of multi-rotor performance. A description of recent NASA wind tunnel testing of multi-rotor propulsion and airframe components will be presented illustrating important experimental and data acquisition methods, and a description of preliminary propulsion and airframe models will be presented. Lastly, examples of predicted off-nominal flight dynamics and trajectories from the simulation will be presented.
Operating Dynamic Reserve Dimensioning Using Probabilistic Forecasts
The rapid integration of variable energy sources (VRES) into power grids increases variability and uncertainty of the net demand, making the power system operation challenging. Operating reserve is used by system operators to manage and hedge against such variability and uncertainty. Traditionally, reserve requirements are determined by rules-of-thumb (static reserve requirements, e.g., NERC Reliability Standards), and more recently, dynamic reserve requirements from tools and methods which are in the adoption process (e.g., DynADOR, DRD, and RESERVE, among others). While these methods/tools significantly improve the static rule-of-thumb approaches, they rely exclusively on deterministic data (i.e., best guess only). Consequently, these methods disregard the probabilistic uncertainty thresholds associated with specific days and their weather conditions (i.e., best guess plus probabilistic uncertainty). This work presents practical approaches to determine the operating reserve requirements leveraging the wealth information from probabilistic forecasts. Proposed approaches are validated and tested using actual data from the CAISO system. Furthermore, results show the benefits in terms of risk reduction of considering the probabilistic forecast information into the dimensioning process of operating reserve requirements.
Development of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)
The space radiation environment, particularly solar particle events (SPEs), poses the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to humans; and organ doses from SPE exposure may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or within lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUMDOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUMDOSE, written in FORTRAN, are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The ARR code is written in C. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in friendly way. A GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept example for future integration of other human space applications risk projection models. The current version of the ARRBOD GUI is a new self-contained product and will have follow-on versions, as options are added: 1) human geometries of MAX/FAX in addition to CAM/CAF; 2) shielding distributions for spacecraft, Mars surface and atmosphere; 3) various space environmental and biophysical models; and 4) other response models to be connected to the BRYNTRN. The major components of the overall system, the subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces are described in this report; and the ARRBOD GUI product is explained step by step in order to serve as a tutorial.
Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations
The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.
Overview of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)
Solar particle events (SPEs) pose the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to astronauts, because organ doses from large SPEs may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model of Baryon transport code (BRYNTRN) with an output data processing module of SUMDOSE, and a probabilistic model of acute radiation risk (ARR). BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation, and the risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, these response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in a user friendly way. The GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. Assessment of astronauts organ doses and ARS from the exposure to historically large SPEs is in support of mission design and operation planning to avoid ARS and stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept for future integration of other risk projection models for human space applications. We present an overview of the ARRBOD GUI product, which is a new self-contained product, for the major components of the overall system, subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces.
An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat
Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.
Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference
We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.
An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation
An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.
Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 5.0 Technical Reference Manual
The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, natural gas, and autogas systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying leak sizes and rates, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 5.0. The most significant change for HyRAM+ version 5.0 from HyRAM+ version 4.1 is the ability to model blends of different fuels. HyRAM+ was previously only suitable for use with hydrogen, methane, or propane, with users having the ability to use methane as a proxy for natural gas and propane as a proxy for autogas/liquefied petroleum gas. In version 5.0, real natural gas or autogas compositions can be modeled as the fuel, or even blends of natural gas with hydrogen. These blends can be used in the standalone physics models, but not yet in the quantitative risk assessment mode of HyRAM+.
An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications
An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.
Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors
A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.
Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility
The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.
Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)
The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.
Receptance coupling substructure analysis and chatter frequency-informed machine learning for milling stability
This paper describes a milling stability identification approach that simultaneously considers: physics-based models for the tool tip frequency response functions and stability predictions; the binary result from a milling test (automatically labeled as stable or unstable based on frequency content); chatter frequency when an unstable result is obtained; and user risk tolerance. The algorithm applies probabilistic Bayesian machine learning with adaptive, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to update the probability of stability with each milling test. Furthermore, the result is a robust solution for rapid convergence to optimized milling parameters for maximum metal removal rate using all available information.
Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 4.1 Technical Reference Manual
The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.1. The two most significant changes for HyRAM+ version 4.1 from HyRAM+ version 4.0 are direct incorporation of unconfined overpressure into the QRA calculations and modification of the models for cryogenic liquid flow through an orifice. In QRA mode, the user no longer needs to input peak overpressure and impulse values that were calculated separately; rather, the unconfined overpressure is estimated for the given system inputs, leak size, and occupant location. The orifice flow model now solves for the maximum mass flux through the orifice at constant entropy while conserving energy, which does not require a direct speed of sound calculation. This does not affect the mass flow for all-gaseous releases; the method results in the same speed of sound for choked flow. However, this method does result in a higher (and more realistic) mass flow rate for a given leak size for liquid releases than was previously calculated.