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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrical Substation Configuration Effect on Substation Reliability

The nation’s electrical grid must be reliable because of its critical role in the economy, defense, and security of the nation. Many common tasks and industrial operations rely on proper electrical power distribution. In the design of new bus systems or evaluation of existing bus systems, the type of bus configuration affects the risk, reliability, maintenance, and cost of the system. This work utilizes Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) to perform a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) based sensitivity study on the reliability of substations with differing bus configurations. This study examines single bus, main and transfer, breaker and a half, double bus/double breaker, and ring bus configurations applied to busses of varying number of lines. The case variances, methods, and rankings presented can provide a guide for bus configuration for future electrical grid design and analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2012

Extending Performance and Evaluating Risks of PV Systems Failure Using a Fault Tree and Event Tree Approach: Analysis of the Possible Application

Performance and reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems are important issues in the overall evaluation of a PV plant and its components. While performance is connected to the amount of energy produced by the PV installation in the working environmental conditions, reliability impacts the availability of the system to produce the expected amount of energy. In both cases, the evaluation should be done considering information and data coming from indoor as well as outdoor tests. In this paper a way of re-thinking performance, giving it a probabilistic connotation, and connecting the two concepts of performance and reliability is proposed. The paper follows a theoretical approach and discusses the way to obtaining such information, facing benefits and problems. The proposed probabilistic performance accounts for the probability of the system to function correctly, thus passing through the complementary evaluation of the probability of system malfunctions and consequences. Scenarios have to be identified where the system is not functioning properly or at all. They are expected to be combined in a probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) based approach, providing not only the required probability, but also being capable of giving a prioritization of the risks and the most dominant scenario associated to a specific situation. This approach can offer the possibility to highlight the most critical parts of a PV system, as well as providing support in design activities identifying weak connections.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrical Substation Configuration Effect on Substation Reliability

It is crucial that the U.S. electrical grid be reliable, due to its critical role in the economy and our national defense/security. Many common tasks and industrial operations rely on proper electrical power distribution. In designing new bus systems or evaluating existing ones, the type of configuration employed affects the level of risk, reliability, maintenance, and cost involved. The present work utilizes Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) to perform a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)-based sensitivity study on substation reliability in regard to different bus configurations. This study examines single bus, main and transfer, breaker and a half, double bus/double breaker, and ring bus configurations applied to busses with different numbers of lines. The case variances, methods, and rankings presented herein can help guide bus configurations for electrical grid design/analysis in the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Electric Power quality Analysis in research reactor: Impacts on nuclear safety assessment and electrical distribution reliability

The increased requirements on supervision, control, and performance in modern power systems make power quality monitoring a common practise for utilities. Large databases are created and automatic processing of the data is required for fast and effective use of the available information. Aim of the work presented in this paper is the development of tools for analysis of monitoring power quality data and in particular measurements of voltage and currents in various level of electrical power distribution. The study is extended to evaluate the reliability of the electrical system in nuclear plant. Power Quality is a measure of how well a system supports reliable operation of its loads. A power disturbance or event can involve voltage, current, or frequency. Power disturbances can originate in consumer power systems, consumer loads, or the utility. The effect of power quality problems is the loss power supply leading to severe damage to equipments. So, we try to track and improve system reliability. The assessment can be focused on the study of impact of short circuits on the system, harmonics distortion, power factor improvement and effects of transient disturbances on the Electrical System during motor starting and power system fault conditions. We focus also on the review of the Electrical System design against the Nuclear Directorate Safety Assessment principles, including those extended during the last Fukushima nuclear accident. The simplified configuration of the required system can be extended from this simple scheme. To achieve these studies, we have used a demo ETAP power station software for several simulations. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis for a Photovoltaic Inverter

While PV panel reliability continues to increase, PV inverters become the limiting factor for PV system reliability. Consequently, it is critical to have a generic tool from a third party for PV inverter reliability assessment to help 1) utilities/PV farm operators schedule maintenance in advance, and 2) inverter developers improve the next-generation design. However, these two things cannot be accomplished without first understanding the reasons behind inverter failure. Following this idea, as the first step, it is essential to identify and investigate the most failure-prone components within a PV inverter system. After all, any system is only as reliable as the components that are contained within it. This motivates the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) work presented for this workshop. The FMEA is conducted as follows: first, the overview of the methodology on the development of the FMEA is presented; then, based on a top-down approach starting from the PV inverter system, critical inverter components with high failure rates are identified and summarized; afterward, a thorough FMEA study at a component-level is performed and its results, including failure modes, failure mechanisms, and critical stressors, are tabulated; finally, according to three rankings (chance of occurrence, severity of occurrence, and ease of detection prior to failure) for each failure mechanism provided by the FMEA, risk priority numbers are calculated and the failure mechanisms along with the critical stressors are ranked in terms of their potentially detrimental effect on the PV inverter.

Brown, Buck↗
DOE OSTI2016

Application of principal component analysis (PCA) and improved joint probability distributions to the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) for predicting extreme sea states

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulations as a part of the standard current practice for designing marine structures to survive extreme sea states. These environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height (H s ) and either energy period (T e ) or peak period (T p ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) is a standard design practice for generating environmental contours. This paper develops enhanced methodologies for data analysis prior to the application of the I-FORM, including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the variables under consideration as well as new distribution and parameter fitting techniques. As a result, these modifications better represent the measured data and, therefore, should contribute to the development of more realistic representations of environmental contours of extreme sea states for determining design loads for marine structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents

This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2020 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed System Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, and the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors’ safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. One main focus of the FY 2020 efforts documented in this report was to extend the analyses conducted in FYs 2018 and 2019 for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to a boiling water reactor (BWR). The same analysis process, risk analysis approaches, and analysis tools as in the previous work for PWR were used for a generic BWR with near-term ATF cladding (i.e., Iron-Chromium-Aluminum [FeCrAl] cladding and Chromium [Cr]-coated cladding) designs under the postulated station blackout (SBO) and medium loss-of-coolant (MLOCA) accident scenarios. In addition, a FLEX model was developed and incorporated into a generic BWR probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model using the INL-developed software tool, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), to assess the risk impact from FLEX. The other main focus of the FY 2020 efforts was to advance analysis methods, including developing dynamic approach for FLEX human reliability analysis (HRA) using the INL-developed software tool, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD), as well as developing a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) method for evaluating costs and benefits of safety enhancements in nuclear power plants (NPPs). As a case study, the MCBE method was applied to evaluate the costs and benefits brought by FLEX implementation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Southwest Wind Power R&D Test Site Development at the National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-12-00472 Final Report)

Southwest Windpower, Inc. (SWWP) has been designing and distributing small wind turbines for more than 22 years and is the recognized global leader in the design, manufacturing and distribution of small wind systems (400-3000 watts). The company has been a pioneer in the development of wind technology and has built and shipped more than 170,000 wind turbines to over 120 countries worldwide. Headquartered in Flagstaff AZ, SWWP has sales representatives in over 88 countries. Applications for SWWP systems include residential homes, commercial properties, micro grids, remote cabins, telecom transmitters, offshore platforms, water pumping and sailboats. In addition, U.S. Department of Defense uses SWWP’s products in Forward Operating Bases (FOB’s), USGS uses them for remote monitoring of glacier movements and the CIA uses them to provide power seismic monitoring. Today, SWWP plans development of new technologies to address distributed energy market needs and become even more aggressive in international markets. This strategy includes extensive Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (RDD&D) activities to improve existing production line into more simple, reliable, and cost-effective wind turbine systems. Important part of such activities is the field testing of the new systems, which should provide: (i) validation of the reliable operation of hardware and software; (ii) validation of numerical models of the system and its components; (iii) field comparison of various control and optimization strategies; (iv) customized reliability testing; (v) customized monitoring and analysis testing; and (vi) IEC certification testing (vii) filed demonstration of system performance and reliability. Such field testing facility should encompass multiple towers and appropriate data acquisition systems. SWWP is exploring to move part of the engineering department to Colorado, and execute its RDD&D strategies in this new location. Partnership with NREL will provide great insights into SWWP’s RDD&D processes and more efficient commercialization by utilizing NWTC as the field testing site, and working close with NREL personnel. NWTC is ideally suited to strain the design. NREL is very experienced with customized and IEC testing. During this project, Southwest Windpower aims to improve the value proposition of distributed renewable energy, and make it a competitive choice in the energy markets. As of today, more then 170,000 small wind turbines, manufactured in the U.S., are installed in more then 180 countries. With the improved value proposition, Southwest Windpower wants to create and address new market needs, substantially increase its sales domestically and internationally, which should have positive impact on the creation of American jobs, competitiveness of U.S. economy, export or U.S. products, and the use of renewable energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Reliability of Quantitative Ultrasonic Assessment of Normal-Tissue Toxicity in Breast Cancer Radiotherapy

Purpose: We have recently reported that ultrasound imaging, together with ultrasound tissue characterization (UTC), can provide quantitative assessment of radiation-induced normal-tissue toxicity. This study's purpose is to evaluate the reliability of our quantitative ultrasound technology in assessing acute and late normal-tissue toxicity in breast cancer radiotherapy. Method and Materials: Our ultrasound technique analyzes radiofrequency echo signals and provides quantitative measures of dermal, hypodermal, and glandular tissue toxicities. To facilitate easy clinical implementation, we further refined this technique by developing a semiautomatic ultrasound-based toxicity assessment tool (UBTAT). Seventy-two ultrasound studies of 26 patients (720 images) were analyzed. Images of 8 patients were evaluated for acute toxicity (<6 months postradiotherapy) and those of 18 patients were evaluated for late toxicity ({>=}6 months postradiotherapy). All patients were treated according to a standard radiotherapy protocol. To assess intraobserver reliability, one observer analyzed 720 images in UBTAT and then repeated the analysis 3 months later. To assess interobserver reliability, three observers (two radiation oncologists and one ultrasound expert) each analyzed 720 images in UBTAT. An intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to evaluate intra- and interobserver reliability. Ultrasound assessment and clinical evaluation were also compared. Results: Intraobserver ICC was 0.89 for dermal toxicity, 0.74 for hypodermal toxicity, and 0.96 for glandular tissue toxicity. Interobserver ICC was 0.78 for dermal toxicity, 0.74 for hypodermal toxicity, and 0.94 for glandular tissue toxicity. Statistical analysis found significant changes in dermal (p < 0.0001), hypodermal (p = 0.0027), and glandular tissue (p < 0.0001) assessments in the acute toxicity group. Ultrasound measurements correlated with clinical Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) toxicity scores of patients in the late toxicity group. Patients with RTOG Grade 1 or 2 had greater ultrasound-assessed toxicity percentage changes than patients with RTOG Grade 0. Conclusion: Early and late radiation-induced effects on normal tissue can be reliably assessed using quantitative ultrasound.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Facilitating Data Collection of Maintenance Events to Populate the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety and reliability for hydrogen facilities by implementing component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis. The project aims to quantify failure rates of hydrogen components through high-quality data collection and analysis on root causes and maintenance needed. HyCReD provides a common database for cataloging hydrogen component failures which exists for reliability research in many other mature industries [2]. The database fills a gap for the hydrogen community by providing a scientifically rigorous approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA), prognostic health management (PHM), and reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis. High level results will be aggregated and anonymized to protect company sensitive information; detailed results will be used to help address issues of hydrogen components. These advanced analytics will support accelerated deployment of hydrogen infrastructure by enabling better: design and safety of projects (safety codes and standards development), infrastructure reliability and cost (component failure rates, maintenance protocols), and component R&D needs (robust supply chain). A key to a successful HyCReD implementation is facilitating the ease of reporting and data quality in the database that can be used for analysis. Maintenance data was a previously identified gap in initial efforts to populate and validate the database taxonomies [3]. Collection of maintenance data will be instrumental in identifying failure modes and rates, identifying incipient component failures or reduced performance, cataloging best practices for maintenance routines and methods for prognostic health management, and quantifying the risk and effect of different failure modes. Several key priorities are identified for streamlined data collection to achieve quality and detailed failure data: Applicability, Ease of Use, Accessibility, and Information Security. The HyCReD team has now begun deployment of the database to several companies and groups that have signed non-disclosure agreements to facilitate the data collection of failures in industry hydrogen refueling station infrastructure. This paper will provide an update into the process of HyCReD deployment including the development of a coding guide for facility personnel to reference and ensure data quality and consistency from one station to another as well as implementation of contextually dependent data fields of system taxonomy and formatted entries to provide ease of use. The goal is to communicate the lessons learned from the roll-out to technicians and engineers in the field, and the addition of need for high level of security to protect all stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Semiconductor Reliability Testing Data Management

iT2 Technologies is a startup developing analytical software and creating automated workflow environment in the area of big data in IC reliability. The main beneficiaries of the iT2 software will be the semiconductor companies as they will see significant savings in terms of time and cost. They will be able to efficiently perform the analysis of large amount of reliability data. A better standard of reliability and quality will also lead to the improvement in public safety in consumer, automotive, medical, and military applications. Smarter and thorough testing will reduce the risk of faulty hardware getting into the hands of the end users. The software is being developed and designed within the United States and will help keep the prominence of US in the cutting edge of high tech space. iT2 is establishing strong relations with its potential customers thanks to its key players being involved in this industry for the past several years and, thus, having a deep understanding of the market. The target clients will be all major semiconductor suppliers such as Intel, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, OnSemi, and Broadcom and their customers including Apple, Cisco, IBM, HP, and Dell. The iT2 software will be used in a business-to-business environment for sharing engineering data and communicating results between these two classes of customers - some of which are participating in the beta testing of the iT2 software.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2013

DAKOTA reliability methods applied to RAVEN/RELAP-7.

This report summarizes the result of a NEAMS project focused on the use of reliability methods within the RAVEN and RELAP-7 software framework for assessing failure probabilities as part of probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power plants. RAVEN is a software tool under development at the Idaho National Laboratory that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing tool for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. Dakota is a software tool developed at Sandia National Laboratories containing optimization, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification algorithms. Reliability methods are algorithms which transform the uncertainty problem to an optimization problem to solve for the failure probability, given uncertainty on problem inputs and a failure threshold on an output response. The goal of this work is to demonstrate the use of reliability methods in Dakota with RAVEN/RELAP-7. These capabilities are demonstrated on a demonstration of a Station Blackout analysis of a simplified Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR).

Swiler, Laura Painton↗
DOE OSTI2012

ON THE RELIABILITY OF POLARIZATION ESTIMATION USING ROTATION MEASURE SYNTHESIS

We benchmark the reliability of the rotation measure (RM) synthesis algorithm using the 1005 Centaurus A field sources of Feain et al. The RM synthesis solutions are compared with estimates of the polarization parameters using traditional methods. This analysis provides verification of the reliability of RM synthesis estimates. We show that estimates of the polarization parameters can be made at lower signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) if the range of RMs is bounded, but reliable estimates of individual sources with unusual RMs require unconstrained solutions and higher S/N. We derive from first principles the statistical properties of the polarization amplitude associated with RM synthesis in the presence of noise. The amplitude distribution depends explicitly on the amplitude of the underlying (intrinsic) polarization signal. Hence, it is necessary to model the underlying polarization signal distribution in order to estimate the reliability and errors in polarization parameter estimates. We introduce a Bayesian method to derive the distribution of intrinsic amplitudes based on the distribution of measured amplitudes. The theoretically derived distribution is compared with the empirical data to provide quantitative estimates of the probability that an RM synthesis solution is correct as a function of S/N. We provide quantitative estimates of the probability that any given RM synthesis solution is correct as a function of measured polarized amplitude and the intrinsic polarization amplitude compared to the noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

First-principles analysis of X-ray magnetic circular dichroism for transition metal complex oxides

X-ray magnetic circular dichroism (XMCD) is widely used for the characterization of magnetism of materials. However, information from XMCD related to the atomic, electronic, and magnetic structures is not fully utilized due to the lack of reliable theoretical tools for spectral analysis. In this work, the first-principles configuration interaction (CI) calculations for X-ray absorption spectra developed by the author were extended for the calculation of XMCD, where the Zeeman energy was taken into the Hamiltonian of the CI to mimic magnetic polarization in the solid state. This technique was applied to interpret the L{sub 2,3} XMCD from 3d transition metal complex oxides, such as NiFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} and FeTiO{sub 3}. The experimental XMCD spectra were quantitatively reproduced using this method. The oxidation states as well as the magnetic ordering between transition metal ions on crystallographically different sites in NiFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} can be unambiguously determined. A first-principles analysis of XMCD in FeTiO{sub 3} revealed the presence of Fe{sup 3+} and Ti{sup 3+} ions, which indicates that the charge transfer from Fe to Ti ions occurs. The origin of magnetic polarization of Ti ions in FeTiO{sub 3} was also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗