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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability Assessment

As the price of PV modules drops, the price of power electronics become more important. Power electronics now constitute 8%-12% of the total lifetime PV cost. As of 2010, the inverter and associated power conditioning components accounted for $\$0.25$/W, well above the DOE benchmark of $\$0.12$/W by 2020. As efforts to reduce PV module costs yield diminishing returns, the importance of understanding and reducing inverter costs becomes an increasingly critical and cost-effective investment toward achieving the DOE SunShot goals. With this in view, this report showcases and describes an approach to help assess and predict the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) inverters. To predict the reliability, thermal cycling is considered as a prominent stressor in the inverter system. To evaluate the impacts of thermal cycling, a detailed linearized model of the PV inverter is developed along with controllers. This research also develops models and methods to compute the losses of the power electronics switches and other components in a PV inverter. The losses are then used to estimate the junction and heat sink temperature. The model is verified by developing an in-house inverter. Additionally, to assess the scalability of the research, the hardware inverter is placed inside a thermal chamber to verify the losses for different ambient temperatures. After the verification of the model, a reduced-order model of the inverter is implemented to translate the profile of ambient temperature and solar irradiance into the profile of junction temperatures of the switches. The estimated junction temperature data are used to identify inverter reliability indices and predict the useful lifetime of the inverter system. After developing the models to predict the useful lifetime of the system, the impact of reactive power on the overall reliability of the system will be studied. The first chapter involves the motivation behind the research on assessing the reliability of PV inverters. The inverter power stage and controller design of the power converter used in this research is also explained in detail in this chapter. The second chapter presents the various losses of the power converter system and the translation of power loss into temperature increase with thermal modeling. The results of the loss modeling and the thermal modeling are also explained in detail in this chapter. The third chapter involves implementing the reduced-order model to translate the mission profile of ambient temperature and solar irradiance into profile of the junction temperatures of the switches. The final chapter involves identifying reliability indices, which are of interest for this system to predict the remaining useful life of the system, and concludes with the impact of reactive power on the overall reliability of the inverter system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Step Made Toward Designing Microelectromechanical System (MEMS) Structures With High Reliability

The mechanical design of microelectromechanical systems-particularly for micropower generation applications-requires the ability to predict the strength capacity of load-carrying components over the service life of the device. These microdevices, which typically are made of brittle materials such as polysilicon, show wide scatter (stochastic behavior) in strength as well as a different average strength for different sized structures (size effect). These behaviors necessitate either costly and time-consuming trial-and-error designs or, more efficiently, the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS. Over the years, the NASA Glenn Research Center s Life Prediction Branch has developed the CARES/Life probabilistic design methodology to predict the reliability of advanced ceramic components. In this study, done in collaboration with Johns Hopkins University, the ability of the CARES/Life code to predict the reliability of polysilicon microsized structures with stress concentrations is successfully demonstrated.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning interatomic potential for predicting the thermal properties of uranium nitride

We present a combined computational and experimental investigation of the thermal properties of uranium nitride (UN), focusing on the development of a machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP) using the moment tensor potential framework. The MLIP was trained on density functional theory (DFT) data and validated against various quantities including energies, forces, elastic constants, phonon dispersion, and defect formation energies, achieving excellent agreement with DFT calculations, prior experimental results, and our thermal conductivity measurement. The potential was then employed in molecular dynamics simulations to predict key thermal properties such as melting point, thermal expansion, specific heat, and lattice thermal conductivity. To further assess model accuracy, we fabricated a UN sample and performed new thermal conductivity measurements representative of single-crystal properties, which showed strong agreement with the MLIP predictions. This work confirms the reliability and predictive capability of the developed potential for determining the thermal properties of UN.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Use of Satellite Nightlights for Power Outages Prediction

Hurricanes are a dominant disaster in the Caribbean, always causing serious power outages throughout the islands. Hurricane Maria was a prime example, causing unimaginable destruction of the power infrastructure of Puerto Rico (PR). Consequently, one month after the hurricane landfall, approximately 80% of the population was still without power. After an event of such massive destruction, the electric power restoration process progresses very slowly. This timeline can be improved using power outage (PO) forecast models that help identify the vulnerable places before the hurricane landfall. Generally, these models are trained with historical power outages records, associated data on weather conditions, and additional information about the natural and built environments. However, PO records are often difficult to acquire, and, in many instances, the power utility companies may not record them. This study utilizes a satellite-based Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night light data product as a surrogate for the power delivery to predict hurricane-induced PO in areas having limited to nonexistent historical data records. The processed satellite data is then used along with geographic variables, and simulated weather data to formulate machine learning-based algorithms to predict PO for future hurricane events. These models are applied and validated in the context of the PR catastrophic storm, Hurricane Maria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Probabilistic Structural Analysis and Reliability Using NESSUS With Implemented Material Strength Degradation Model

This project included both research and education objectives. The goal of this project was to advance innovative research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction for improved reliability and safety of structural components of aerospace and aircraft propulsion systems. Research and education partners included Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) along with the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). SwRI enhanced the NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) code and provided consulting support for NESSUS-related activities at UTSA. NASA funding supported three undergraduate students, two graduate students, a summer course instructor and the Principal Investigator. Matching funds from UTSA provided for the purchase of additional equipment for the enhancement of the Advanced Interactive Computational SGI Lab established during the first year of this Partnership Award to conduct the probabilistic finite element summer courses. The research portion of this report presents the cumulation of work performed through the use of the probabilistic finite element program, NESSUS, Numerical Evaluation and Structures Under Stress, and an embedded Material Strength Degradation (MSD) model. Probabilistic structural analysis provided for quantification of uncertainties associated with the design, thus enabling increased system performance and reliability. The structure examined was a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel turbopump blade. The blade material analyzed was Inconel 718, since the MSD model was previously calibrated for this material. Reliability analysis encompassing the effects of high temperature and high cycle fatigue, yielded a reliability value of 0.99978 using a fully correlated random field for the blade thickness. The reliability did not change significantly for a change in distribution type except for a change in distribution from Gaussian to Weibull for the centrifugal load. The sensitivity factors determined to be most dominant were the centrifugal loading and the initial strength of the material. These two sensitivity factors were influenced most by a change in distribution type from Gaussian to Weibull. The education portion of this report describes short-term and long-term educational objectives. Such objectives serve to integrate research and education components of this project resulting in opportunities for ethnic minority students, principally Hispanic. The primary vehicle to facilitate such integration was the teaching of two probabilistic finite element method courses to undergraduate engineering students in the summers of 1998 and 1999.

Bast, Callie C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Pivotal-Function Assessment Of Reliability Of Software

Approach developed to establish utility of pivotal functions for estimation and prediction of reliability of software. Improved estimates of reliability with statistical confidence obtained when relatively few testing data available. Pivotal functions effective tools for determination of confidence limits for reliability of software and prediction limits for time to next failure. Provides exact confidence and prediction limits regardless of how many bugs found in software.

Hayhurst, Kelly J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization

Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Reliability of Radioisotope Stirling Convertor Linear Alternator

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed and planned for NASA s deep-space missions would require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 years. Critical components and materials of Stirling convertors have been undergoing extensive testing and evaluation in support of a reliable performance for the specified life span. Of significant importance to the successful development of the Stirling convertor is the design of a lightweight and highly efficient linear alternator. Alternator performance could vary due to small deviations in the permanent magnet properties, operating temperature, and component geometries. Durability prediction and reliability of the alternator may be affected by these deviations from nominal design conditions. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the effect of these uncertainties in predicting the reliability of the linear alternator performance. This paper presents a study in which a reliability-based methodology is used to assess alternator performance. The response surface characterizing the induced open-circuit voltage performance is constructed using 3-D finite element magnetic analysis. Fast probability integration method is used to determine the probability of the desired performance and its sensitivity to the alternator design parameters.

Shah, Ashwin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

An Architectural Concept for Intrusion Tolerance in Air Traffic Networks

The goal of an intrusion tolerant network is to continue to provide predictable and reliable communication in the presence of a limited num ber of compromised network components. The behavior of a compromised network component ranges from a node that no longer responds to a nod e that is under the control of a malicious entity that is actively tr ying to cause other nodes to fail. Most current data communication ne tworks do not include support for tolerating unconstrained misbehavio r of components in the network. However, the fault tolerance communit y has developed protocols that provide both predictable and reliable communication in the presence of the worst possible behavior of a limited number of nodes in the system. One may view a malicious entity in a communication network as a node that has failed and is behaving in an arbitrary manner. NASA/Langley Research Center has developed one such fault-tolerant computing platform called SPIDER (Scalable Proces sor-Independent Design for Electromagnetic Resilience). The protocols and interconnection mechanisms of SPIDER may be adapted to large-sca le, distributed communication networks such as would be required for future Air Traffic Management systems. The predictability and reliabi lity guarantees provided by the SPIDER protocols have been formally v erified. This analysis can be readily adapted to similar network stru ctures.

Maddalon, Jeffrey M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reliable p K a Prediction through Efficient Incorporation of Anharmonicity within the Nuclear–Electronic Orbital Framework

Accurate pK a prediction is critical for understanding chemical reactivity and molecular properties across a wide range of applications. Computational approaches usually invoke a harmonic treatment of the vibrational modes for zero-point energies, as well as thermal and entropic contributions. Herein, we present a general protocol for relative pK a prediction that incorporates the significant anharmonic effects using nuclear–electronic orbital (NEO) theory. This protocol is validated against experimental data for a range of molecules in acetonitrile, including protonated nitrogen bases, nitrophenols, anilines, and diamines, as well as cobalt electrocatalysts. For simple acids, the NEO approach offers only a slight improvement over conventional density functional theory with the standard harmonic vibrational treatment, whereas for hydrogen-bonded acids, the NEO approach offers more significantly improved performance at a comparable computational cost. This accessible methodology provides a practical route for accurate pKa prediction in challenging systems and is extendable to related thermodynamic properties such as hydricities and proton-coupled redox potentials.

Density functional theory↗
DOE OSTI2018

Framework for Modelling Interface Degradation in Photovoltaic Modules at the Molecular Level

A significant challenge facing the solar industry is developing a reliable method to accurately predict photovoltaic module reliability over decades-long operating lifetimes. For the specific case of encapsulant adhesion-where interface delamination directly leads to reduced module efficiency- predictive models are critical for assessing long term reliability of new module materials over time frames conducive to research and development. We thus present a framework for modelling the temporal evolution of encapsulant adhesion by accounting for chemicaldegradation mechanisms at the molecular level. The model is developed though an unprecedented survey of encapsulant adhesion energy measurements from lab and field- aged modules with agingtimes spanning months to nearly three decades. Chemical analyses of new and aged EVA encapsulants are conducted to identify the dominant degradation mechanisms for modelling interface adhesion: deactivation, polymer chain scission, and hydrolytic polymerization. The strength of this framework is in the model's modularity, which renders it adaptable to any type of aging environment and encapsulation material.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1983

Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

Lillesand, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Footprint prediction of scalar fluxes - Reliability and implications for airborne flux measurements over the FIFE site

Estimates of the location and extension of the upwind ground area that affects flux observations most directly are examined to determine the reliability of airborne versus near-ground flux measurements. The theoretical issues regarding the 'footprint' are examined, and specific observations are analyzed by studying the data over a grid regarding sensible heat, latent heat, CO2, and greenness. The grid is footprint-corrected to correlate better with independently observed surface characteristics, and an optimized footprint is developed that satisfies the relationships between the observed variables. Optimized mapping of the surface flux is given which demonstrates the importance of considering local advection to correlate airborne and ground-based flux observations. The technique is particularly applicable to situations in which significant variations in the surface flux density exist.

Schuepp, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Reliability Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering, with Model- Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) leading the way, is transforming design and analysis methodologies. The recognized benefits to systems development include moving from document-centric information systems and document-centric project communication to a model-centric environment in which control of design changes in the life cycles is facilitated. In addition, a “single source of truth” about the system, that is up-to-date in all respects of the design, becomes the authoritative source of data and information about the system. This promotes consistency and efficiency in regard to integration of the system elements as the design emerges and thereby may further optimize the design. Therefore Reliability Engineers (REs) supporting NASA missions must be integrated into model-based engineering to ensure the outputs of their analyses are relevant and value-needed to the design, development, and operational processes for failure risks assessment and communication.

FMEA/FMECA↗