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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Modified Inverse First Order Reliability Method (I-FORM) for Predicting Extreme Sea States.

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulation s as a part of the stand ard current practice for designing marine structure s to survive extreme sea states. Such environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height ( ) and energy period ( ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first - order reliability method (IFORM) i s standard design practice for generating environmental contours. In this paper, the traditional appli cation of the IFORM to generating environmental contours representing extreme sea states is described in detail and its merits and drawbacks are assessed. The application of additional methods for analyzing sea state data including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the data under consideration is proposed. A reexamination of the components of the IFORM application to the problem at hand including the use of new distribution fitting techniques are shown to contribute to the development of more accurate a nd reasonable representations of extreme sea states for use in survivability analysis for marine struc tures. Keywords: In verse FORM, Principal Component Analysis , Environmental Contours, Extreme Sea State Characteri zation, Wave Energy Converters

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia↗
DOE OSTI2016

Application of principal component analysis (PCA) and improved joint probability distributions to the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) for predicting extreme sea states

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulations as a part of the standard current practice for designing marine structures to survive extreme sea states. These environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height (H s ) and either energy period (T e ) or peak period (T p ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) is a standard design practice for generating environmental contours. This paper develops enhanced methodologies for data analysis prior to the application of the I-FORM, including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the variables under consideration as well as new distribution and parameter fitting techniques. As a result, these modifications better represent the measured data and, therefore, should contribute to the development of more realistic representations of environmental contours of extreme sea states for determining design loads for marine structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind Turbine Drivetrain Reliability Assessment and Remaining Useful Life Prediction

This presentation describes a methodology for predicting probability of failure of wind turbine gearbox bearings failed by axial cracking. This methodology was applied to a commercial MW size wind plant and generated results were correlated with actual failures. This work is partnered with WindESCo and funded through DOE's Technology Commercialization Fund.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Screening sensitivity analysis of a PWR fuel assembly FEM structural model

Within the present project, computational methods to describe the static mechanical response of PWR fuel assemblies (FA) in the reactor core are developed. For this purpose a structural model of a PWR fuel assembly has been implemented with the Finite Element Method (FEM) using the ANSYS APDL Mechanical code. The purpose of the model is to investigate the long-term creep deformation of the fuel assemblies in the reactor core, commonly known as fuel assembly bow. FA bow is considered to be a complex process with a large number of influencing mechanisms and many only roughly known boundary conditions. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are a common way to investigate the predictive power and reliability of such complex models. Hence, as a first approach to understand the importance of the many model parameters, a qualitative sensitivity analysis of the model was conducted using the screening method proposed by Morris. In the first part of the paper, the FA structural model and its principal parameters are presented. The second part presents first the different simulation experiments used for the screening analyses. Based on the model description, relevant input parameters are then identified and a typical range of values is determined. The sensitivity analysis is performed in two subsequent steps. First, the model is screened for influential stiffness parameters with the objective of stiffening the FA structure. Second, the influence of the uncertain boundary conditions and material models on the FA creep deformation is tested. For the considered FA design it is concluded that the influence of the involved uncertainties is comparable to the influence of the parameters which can increase the stiffness. An integral approach accounting for these uncertainties is hence necessary to predict FA bow reliably in order to take additional measures for a further reduction of FA bow amplitudes. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Probabilistic reliability assessment and case studies for predicted energy savings in residential buildings

This study aims to (1) investigate the key influential parameters (KIPs) in estimating the uncertainty of energy savings using a residential building energy simulation model and (2) perform uncertainty quantification for energy savings for several different scenarios. The proposed methodology was successfully applied to the calculation of uncertainties associated with residential energy retrofits using two test houses designed for pre- and post-retrofit cases. Uncertainties were determined using basic parameters that might be supplied to an energy model and then reevaluated based on an audit of the KIPs identified, resulting in substantially reduced uncertainty. Of four different scenarios, the most uncertain scenario estimated the annual energy savings from the retrofit would be between 18% and 51% at a 95% confidence level, and the least uncertain scenario estimated the annual savings would be between 26% and 40% at a 95% confidence level. The actual measured annual savings from the two test houses was 28%, which shows an agreement with the uncertainty analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Subtlety of TiO 2 phase stability: Reliability of the density functional theory predictions and persistence of the self-interaction error

TiO 2 is an important material with broad applications that can exist in different phases with dramatically different properties. Theoretical prediction of their polymorph energetics is therefore critical for the material design and for identifying thermodynamically accessible structures. Determining TiO 2 relative phase stabilities remains challenging for first-principles methods, and density functional theory is the only approach available for studying phase stabilities at finite temperatures with acceptable computational efficiency. Here, we show that density functional theory using the recently developed efficient strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) [Sun et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 115, 036402 (2015)] exchange-correlation functional for the first time predicts the phase stability in qualitative agreement with the experimental results at realistic conditions. Further analysis shows that the self-interaction error intrinsic in the density functional persists in the stability prediction. By correcting the self-interaction error through an empirical approach, SCAN predicts the relative stability as well as defect properties in excellent agreement with the experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning to evaluating and remediating models for energy and environmental engineering

Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been increasingly successful in their applications to solve energy and environmental engineering problems. ML algorithms have the advantage of being able to solve highly nonlinear issues effectively. Furthermore, considering the limited sample size of data collected in energy and environmental engineering, obtaining a ML model with reasonable accuracy is simple. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the current applications of ML algorithms lack effective screening of dominant factors and comprehensive model validation, which weakens the predictive ability of the models. The present study takes the minimum miscible pressure (MMP) of CO 2 - oil systems as an example. It establishes a systematic and robust predictive model to address this issue. Based on 147 sets of slim tube tests, the predictive models of the MMPs are investigated by application of eight ML algorithms. The paper concludes that most of the published ML models in the field of energy and environmental engineering prediction are not reliable. Furthermore, it addresses the main reasons for the poor performance of some predictive models built by ML and provides guidelines on how to make such models robust. Further, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to point out the defects of current ML modeling methods and propose countermeasures for their application in energy and environmental engineering problems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physically Informed Machine Learning Prediction of Electronic Density of States

The electronic structure of a material, such as its density of states (DOS), provides key insights into its physical and functional properties and serves as a valuable source of high-quality features for many materials screening and discovery workflows. Still, the computational cost of calculating the DOS, most commonly with density functional theory (DFT), becomes prohibitive for meeting high-fidelity or high-throughput requirements, necessitating a cheaper but sufficiently accurate surrogate. To fulfill this demand, we develop a general machine learning method based on graph neural networks for predicting the DOS purely from atomic positions, six orders of magnitude faster than DFT. This approach can effectively use large materials databases and be applied generally across the entire periodic table to materials classes of arbitrary compositional and structural diversity. We furthermore devise a highly adaptable scheme for physically informed learning which encourages the DOS prediction to favor physically reasonable solutions defined by any set of desired constraints. This functionality provides a means for ensuring that the predicted DOS is reliable enough to be used as an input to downstream materials screening workflows to predict more complex functional properties, which rely on accurate physical features.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Limiting Current in Nanostructured Block Copolymer Electrolytes

The next-generation electrolytes for lithium batteries must be able to conduct ions at sufficiently high current densities; yet this regime is rarely studied directly. The limiting current density of an electrolyte quantifies the highest possible rate of ion transport under an applied dc potential. Herein, we report on the limiting current density in twelve nanostructured polystyrene-block-poly(ethylene oxide) (PS-b-PEO, or SEO) copolymer electrolytes. We find that the limiting current at a given salt concentration increases systematically with increasing volume fraction of the PEO block (φ EO ). In contrast, the effective-medium theory, commonly used to analyze conductivity in block copolymer electrolytes, predicts that limiting current is independent of φ EO . To resolve this conundrum, the ionic conductivity, the mutual diffusion coefficient of the salt, and the steady-state current fraction of the block copolymer electrolytes were measured. These measurements enable predictions of limiting current with no adjustable parameters using the concentrated solution theory. We found quantitative agreement between experimentally measured limiting current densities and predictions based on the concentrated solution theory. This work sheds light on how to reliably measure and predict limiting current density in composite electrolytes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

HYPPO: A Surrogate-Based Multi-Level Parallelism Tool for Hyperparameter Optimization

We present a new software, HYPPO, that enables the automatic tuning of hyperparameters of various deep learning (DL) models. Unlike other hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods, HYPPO uses adaptive surrogate models and directly accounts for uncertainty in model predictions to find accurate and reliable models that make robust predictions. Using asynchronous nested parallelism, we are able to significantly alleviate the computational burden of training complex architectures and quantifying the uncertainty. HYPPO is implemented in Python and can be used with both TensorFlow and PyTorch libraries. We demonstrate various software features on time-series prediction and image classification problems as well as a scientific application in computed tomography image reconstruction. Finally, we show that (1) we can reduce by an order of magnitude the number of evaluations necessary to find the most optimal region in the hyperparameter space and (2) we can reduce by two orders of magnitude the throughput for such HPO process to complete.

adaptation models↗
DOE OSTI2016

Review on failure prediction techniques of composite single lap joint

Adhesive bonding is the most appropriate joining method in construction of composite structures. The use of reliable design and prediction technique will produce better performance of bonded joints. Several papers from recent papers and journals have been reviewed and synthesized to understand the current state of the art in this area. It is done by studying the most relevant analytical solutions for composite adherends with start of reviewing the most fundamental ones involving beam/plate theory. It is then extended to review single lap joint non linearity and failure prediction and finally on the failure prediction on composite single lap joint. The review also encompasses the finite element modelling part as tool to predict the elastic response of composite single lap joint and failure prediction numerically.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relatively new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

High-throughput respirometric assay identifies predictive toxicophore of mitochondrial injury

Many environmental chemicals and drugs negatively affect human health through deleterious effects on mitochondrial function. Currently there is no chemical library of mitochondrial toxicants, and no reliable methods for predicting mitochondrial toxicity. We hypothesized that discrete toxicophores defined by distinct chemical entities can identify previously unidentified mitochondrial toxicants. We used a respirometric assay to screen 1760 compounds (5 μM) from the LOPAC and ChemBridge DIVERSet libraries. Thirty-one of the assayed compounds decreased uncoupled respiration, a stress test for mitochondrial dysfunction, prior to a decrease in cell viability and reduced the oxygen consumption rate in isolated mitochondria. The mitochondrial toxicants were grouped by chemical similarity and two clusters containing four compounds each were identified. Cheminformatic analysis of one of the clusters identified previously uncharacterized mitochondrial toxicants from the ChemBridge DIVERSet. This approach will enable the identification of mitochondrial toxicants and advance the prediction of mitochondrial toxicity for both drug discovery and risk assessment. - Highlights: • Respirometric assay conducted in RPTC to create mitochondrial toxicant database. • Chemically similar mitochondrial toxicants aligned as mitochondrial toxicophores • Mitochondrial toxicophore identifies five novel mitochondrial toxicants.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Parameter estimation and prediction for groundwater contamination based on measure theory

The problem of groundwater contamination in an aquifer is one with many uncertainties. Properly quantifying these uncertainties is es- sential in order to make reliable probabilistic based predictions and decisions regarding remediation strategies. In this work, a measure-theoretic frame- work is employed to quantify uncertainties in a simpli ed groundwater con- tamination transport model. Given uncertain data from observation wells, the stochastic inverse problem is solved numerically to obtain a probability measure on the space of unknown model parameters characterizing ground- water ow and contaminant transport in an aquifer, as well as unknown model boundary or source terms such as the contaminant source release into the environment. This probability measure is used to make predictions of future contaminant concentrations and to analyze possible remediation techniques. The ability to identify regions of small but nonzero probability using this method is illustrated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Virtual refrigerant charge sensor for variable-speed heat pumps based on feature selection

The refrigerant charge level in heat pump systems significantly impacts their energy efficiency. Virtual refrigerant charge (VRC) sensing technology has been comprehensively investigated and well-established due to its lower cost compared to physical sensors. However, the previous VRC research often relied on expert judgment and physical reasoning for their variable selection, which can potentially select redundant (or highly correlated) or insignificant features, and it is also primarily focused on single-speed systems. To address these challenges, this study proposes a VRC algorithm for variable-speed heat pumps that selects features through a rigorous feature selection method in combination with physical insights. We also propose a piecewise linear model structure segmented by subcooling temperature to accurately predict charge levels, particularly when subcooling temperatures are substantially low. The proposed algorithm was evaluated using experimental data of a residential R410A heat pump, and the performance was compared with two baseline VRC algorithms. The results are: (1) The proposed algorithm outperforms for the case with subcooling temperature less than 1 °C. (2) The proposed algorithm achieves a tested mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.23%, and improves the overall accuracy for cooling conditions by approximately 60%, compared with the two baseline algorithms. (3) The proposed algorithm uses two fewer features and improves the accuracy for undercharge cooling conditions by 68.0%, compared with baseline algorithm 2. These improvements enhance prediction accuracy and prevent overfitting, providing a more reliable refrigerant charge level prediction and helping improve the heat pump energy efficiency.

Liang, Chenjiyu↗
DOE OSTI2019

LaserOrigami (LO) of three-dimensional (3D) components: Experimental analysis and numerical modeling-part II

The present work explores how the choice of the scanning patterns can affect the final shapes of 3D components manufactured by laser-origami with a High-Power Diode Laser (HPDL). The experimental approach allowed the achievement of high bending angles, also avoiding any distortion on the surface of AISI 304 stainless steel workpiece. Optimization of the operational parameters led to the best prototype of the 3D components, with the closest respect of the strictest dimensional and geometrical tolerances. In addition, a thermo-mechanical model to predict the final shape of the 3D components was developed. The numerical model, implemented by Finite Element Method (FEM), was discovered to be a reliable tool in predicting the final shape of the prototypes, matching with a great deal of accuracy the experimental results. Specifically, the model allowed the estimation of the temperature distribution and nodal displacements of the components varying both the setting of the laser parameters and the choice of the scanning patterns.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗