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DOE OSTI2022

Automatic parameter selection for electron ptychography via Bayesian optimization

Abstract Electron ptychography provides new opportunities to resolve atomic structures with deep sub-angstrom spatial resolution and to study electron-beam sensitive materials with high dose efficiency. In practice, obtaining accurate ptychography images requires simultaneously optimizing multiple parameters that are often selected based on trial-and-error, resulting in low-throughput experiments and preventing wider adoption. Here, we develop an automatic parameter selection framework to circumvent this problem using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes. With minimal prior knowledge, the workflow efficiently produces ptychographic reconstructions that are superior to those processed by experienced experts. The method also facilitates better experimental designs by exploring optimized experimental parameters from simulated data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using the ATLAS experiment software on heterogeneous resources

With the large dataset expected from 2030 onwards by the HL-LHC at CERN, the ATLAS experiment is reaching the limits of the current data processing model in terms of traditional CPU resources based on x86_64 architectures and an extensive program for software upgrades towards the HL-LHC has been set up. The ARM CPU architecture is becoming a competitive and energy efficient alternative. Accelerators like GPUs are available in any recent HPC. In the past years ATLAS has successfully ported its full data processing and simulation software framework Athena to ARM and has invested significant effort in porting parts of the reconstruction and simulation algorithms to GPUs. We report on the successful usage of the ATLAS experiment offline and online software framework Athena on ARM and GPUs through the PanDA workflow management system at various WLCG sites. Furthermore we report on performance optimizations of the builds for ARM CPUs and the GPU integration efforts. We will discuss performance comparisons of different ARM and x86_64 architectures on WLCG resources and Cloud compute providers like GCP and AWS using ATLAS productions workflows as used in the Hep-Score23 benchmark suite.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tilted fluctuation electron microscopy

Fluctuation electron microscopy (FEM) is a scanning nanodiffraction-based method that offers a unique approach to characterizing nanometer-scale medium-range order (MRO) in disordered materials. In addition to determining the degree of MRO, careful analysis of scanning nanodiffraction data can also be used to determine strain in thin film amorphous samples. We applied FEM to characterize the strain and MRO of magnetron sputtered amorphous tantalum (a-Ta) thin films over a range of tilt angles from 0° to 45° in order to measure any deviations between the in-plane and out-of-plane strain and MRO. We validate our approach using electron diffraction simulations of FEM experiments for a-Ta. We measure anisotropic strain in the simulated a-Ta diffraction patterns and find that the experimental a-Ta is isotropically strained within the accuracy of our method. Our approach provides a workflow for acquiring tilted scanning nanodiffraction data, determining the relative strain and ordering as a function of in- A nd out-of-plane directions, and removing any artifacts induced in FEM data due to strain. We also describe some limitations of the tilted FEM method when applied to thin films with very low strains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scenario Generation for Built Environment Decision Support under Uncertainty: Case Studies of Airflow Modeling and Climate-Resilient Infrastructure System Design

When confronted with unforeseen challenges, practicing informed decision making is crucial for enhancing resilience in the built environment. While scan-to-building information modeling (BIM) is a well-established approach for creating detailed digital representations of physical assets, its application in assessing and improving infrastructure resilience remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel application of scan-to-BIM, namely, scan-to-BIM-to-digital twin (S-BIM-DT) workflow. By integrating reality capture and digital twin technologies, this workflow creates continuously updated and accurate digital representations of physical assets, enabling the generation of various scenarios. Unlike traditional methods, the S BIM-DT workflow facilitates continuous model refinement, supporting informed resilience strategies. By combining these technologies into a cohesive process, the workflow facilitates decision making under uncertainty, enabling stakeholders to evaluate and respond to various scenarios effectively. We demonstrate the implementation of the S-BIM-DT workflow through two use cases that highlight its capability to enhance resilience at different scales. The first use case involves the Combined Transportation, Emergency, and Communications Center (CTECC) in Austin, Texas. BIM-enriched computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling simulates airflow and develops alternative scenarios for optimizing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. This approach enhances resilience against airborne health threats in a postCOVID context. The second use case focuses on designated areas within Beaumont, Texas, as part of the Southeast Texas Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (SETx-UIFL) research. By developing inundation maps to assess extreme weather events, this modeling aids in preparedness efforts and informs the development of climate-resilient infrastructure in vulnerable neighborhoods. Results indicate that the S-BIM-DT workflow effectively generates scenarios that enhance resilience in the built environment by facilitating informed decision making. Furthermore, this study serves as a bridge between advanced scan-to-BIM methodologies and the practical strategies needed to improve built infrastructure resilience.

Built environment↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Linear Elastic Modeling and Homogenization of Marine Energy Composites

The design of fiber-reinforced composite (FRC)-based components for marine energy applications necessitates a fundamental understanding of material properties and the resulting geometry to predict long-term performance. In this work, we present a modeling workflow to predict linear elastic and diffusive bulk properties at the mesoscale for an idealized geometry based on knowledge of fiber and resin properties. A parametric study was performed to identify the key model input parameters that influence bulk properties. Furthermore, we demonstrate how bulk properties can be leveraged in high-fidelity image-based simulations, where imperfections in tow geometry and voids captured during X-ray computed tomography imaging are explicitly represented within the simulation. Bulk properties of interest include moduli, Poisson’s ratios, hygroscopic swelling, diffusivity, and moisture uptake, which are key parameters for characterizing FRC performance within marine environments. Modeling predictions agreed well with experimental data, except for estimating swelling coefficients, likely due to crack accumulation as a function of moisture uptake. The mesoscale modeling workflow ultimately highlights a versatile framework for understanding the influence of material and geometric properties, which can be leveraged to rapidly assess new FRC-based components.

computational mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the effect of ELM and code-coupling frequencies on plasma and material modeling of dynamic recycling in divertors

Abstract Integrated modeling of plasma-surface interactions provides a comprehensive and self-consistent description of the system, moving the field closer to developing predictive and design capabilities for plasma facing components. One such workflow, including descriptions for the scrape-off-layer plasma, ion-surface interactions and the sub-surface evolution, was previously used to address steady-state scenarios and has recently been extended to incorporate time-dependence and two-way information flow. The new model can address dynamic recycling in transient scenarios, such as the application presented in this paper: the evolution of W samples pre-damaged by helium and exposed to ELMy H-mode plasmas in the DIII-D DiMES. A first set of simulations explored the effect of ELM frequency. This study was discussed in detail in this conference’s proceedings and is summarized here. The 2nd set of simulations, which is the focus of this paper, explores the effect of code-coupling frequency. These simulations include initial SOLPS solutions converged to the inter-ELM state, ion impact energy ( E in ) and angles ( A in ) calculated by hPIC2, and an improved heat transfer description in Xolotl. The model predicts increases in particle fluxes and decreases in heat fluxes by 10%–20% with the coupling time-step. Compared with the first set of simulations, the less shallow impact angle leads to smaller reflection rates and significant D implantation. The higher fraction of implanted flux (and deeper), in particular during ELMs, increases the accumulated D content in the W near-surface region. Future expansion of the workflow includes coupling to hPIC2 and GITR to ensure accurate descriptions of E in and A in , and W impurity transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Using LASSO to bridge the gap between model and observations and to learn about atmospheric convection”

Atmospheric convection spans a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and involves complex interactions with the surrounding dynamic and thermodynamic environment, particularly over tropical continental regions. These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models, including persistent biases in the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation that directly affect estimates of climate sensitivity. Addressing these challenges requires the combined use of high-resolution observations and cloud-resolving modeling frameworks. In this context, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Large-Eddy Simulation ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity provides a powerful platform that pairs comprehensive observations with numerical simulations to enable process-level understanding of atmospheric convection. Within this context, this Research and Development Partnership Pilot (RDPP) project was designed to initiate and expand DOE ARM/ASR research capacity at minority-serving institutions, while advancing scientific understanding of convective processes over the Amazon rainforest. Consistent with the RDPP mission, the project emphasized partnership development, training, and workforce capacity building alongside exploratory research activities. On the scientific side, the project produced two peer-reviewed journal articles, and one manuscript currently under review (see list in section 3.1). Together, these studies combine long-term ARM observations and cloud-resolving and convection-permitting modeling to investigate the environmental controls on the shallow-to-deep convective transition during the Amazon wet season. The results demonstrate the central role of early-day moisture preconditioning and large-scale dynamical forcing in regulating isolated deep convection, provide mechanistic insight into convective evolution, and establish physically informed modeling frameworks for future sensitivity experiments. These scientific outcomes are described in sections 2.1 to 2.3 and were disseminated in 8 conference presentations (see section 3.2) and 5 invited talks (see section 3.3), reflecting broad engagement with our community. Equally important, the project achieved its RDPP capacity-building objectives (see section 2.4). A sustained research partnership was established among the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), Morgan State University (MSU), and Howard University (HU), and extended to include collaboration with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The project organized multiple multi-day training events focused on ARM data, LASSO simulations, and quantitative analysis methods, directly engaging students, postdoctoral researchers, and faculty across institutions. These activities broadened participation in ASR research and led to independent adoption of LASSO workflows by students beyond the immediate project team. Finally, the project successfully positioned the participating institutions to pursue future DOE research. Preliminary scientific results, coupled with strengthened partnerships and technical capacity, enabled the submission of follow-on proposals to DOE ASR funding opportunities. In this way, the project fulfilled the RDPP goal of seeding durable research capacity and laying the foundation for larger-scale, sustained engagement with DOE ARM and ASR programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Reservoir Production Scenarios

The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Drilling Production Scenarios: Preprint

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Position Papers for the ASCR Workshop on Cybersecurity and Privacy for Scientific Computing Ecosystems

At the request of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR), this program committee has been tasked with organizing a workshop to identify basic research needs in cybersecurity and privacy to better support DOE's science and energy mission. As part of the process, the program committee is soliciting community input in the form of position papers to help identify significant use cases, facility issues, and other barriers to enabling verifiably trustworthy computational science while preserving data confidentiality as appropriate for scientific workflows of interest to DOE. The program committee will review these position papers and based on the fit of their area of expertise and interest, selected contributors will have the opportunity to participate in the workshop currently planned as a virtual event November 3-5th, 2021. The thrust areas that will be explored by this workshop are the following: (1) Algorithms for secure, scalable, privacy-enhancing technologies and frameworks, including: Federated AI/ML, Differential privacy, Randomized algorithms, Adversarial modeling & simulation, Graph algorithms, and Formal methods; (2) Platforms to support the entire scientific-computing ecosystem, including edge computing for large-scale experiments, focusing on heterogeneous systems and distributed systems, including: Heterogeneous computing systems, Distributed computing systems, and Secure data architectures; and (3) Data workflows to allow agile use of data while preserving integrity and privacy, making the important properties verifiable either at runtime or post-computation, including: Integrity and provenance and Data management infrastructure. Topics that are out-of-scope for the workshop include discussing specific proposed solutions or areas that are clearly out of DOE's fundamental and applied-sciences mission scope, e.g., cryptography, enterprise security, and general-operations technology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Modeling Framework for Multi-Scale Simulation of Hydraulic Fracturing and Production from Unconventional Reservoirs

This paper describes a new modeling framework for microscopic to reservoir-scale simulations of hydraulic fracturing and production. The approach builds upon a fusion of two existing high-performance simulators for reservoir-scale behavior: the GEOS code for hydromechanical evolution during stimulation and the TOUGH+ code for multi-phase flow during production. The reservoir-scale simulations are informed by experimental and modeling studies at the laboratory scale to incorporate important micro-scale mechanical processes and chemical reactions occurring within the fractures, the shale matrix, and at the fracture-fluid interfaces. These processes include, among others, changes in stimulated fracture permeability as a result of proppant behavior rearrangement or embedment, or mineral scale precipitation within pores and microfractures, at µm to cm scales. In our new modeling framework, such micro-scale testing and modeling provides upscaled hydromechanical parameters for the reservoir scale models. We are currently testing the new modeling framework using field data and core samples from the Hydraulic Fracturing Field Test (HFTS), a recent field-based joint research experiment with intense monitoring of hydraulic fracturing and shale production in the Wolfcamp Formation in the Permian Basin (USA). Below, we present our approach coupling the reservoir simulators GEOS and TOUGH+ informed by upscaled parameters from micro-scale experiments and modeling. We provide a brief overview of the HFTS and the available field data, and then discuss the ongoing application of our new workflow to the HFTS data set.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

GridOPTICS/GridPACK

GridPACK is a software framework consisting of a set of modules designed to simplify the development of programs that model the power grid and run on parallel, high performance computing platforms. It also contains several fully developed applications, including powerflow, dynamic simulation, state estimation, Kalman filter analysis (dynamic state estimation), contingency analysis and real time path rating. These applications can be used either standalone or as components in more complicated workflows that combine several different types of application together. The framework modules are available as a combination of libraries and software templates and consist of components for setting up and distributing power grid networks, support for modeling the behavior of individual buses and branches in the network, converting the network models to the corresponding algebraic equations, and parallel routines for manipulating and solving large algebraic systems. The framework also contains a module for distributing tasks evenly amongst computing resources, even if individual tasks vary widely in their execution times. Additional modules support input and output, basic statistical analysis of contingency based calculations, distributed data structures, as well as basic profiling and error management.

Palmer, Bruce↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electrical and Thermal Load Impacts of Three District Heating and Cooling Designs for an Existing Community in Washington, DC

District energy systems that provide building heating and cooling are a promising option to provide low-cost, energy efficient heating and cooling solutions for communities. As some buildings move to electrified heating designs, there may be significant increases in electric grid demand, particularly in the winter. District energy systems may be able to help reduce these high electrical demands on the electric grid, while also providing decreased overall energy consumption with an increased flexibility in electrical energy usage. To evaluate and compare district options for district-based heating and cooling, an existing neighborhood of Washington, DC consisting of 35 existing buildings was selected as a case study. This study models and compares a fourth generation (4G) district heating and cooling systems that provide hot and chilled water from a central plant directly to each prosumer and a fifth generation (5G) district heating and cooling systems that provide near-ambient water via geothermal boreholes to interface with an energy transfer station with a heat pump at each prosumer. These district systems are compared against a baseline of the non-connected buildings with their self-contained and current HVAC systems. The neighborhood was selected as a good candidate for a district system for its diversity of loads (mix of different commercial and property types) and the availability of building characteristics. URBANopt District Energy Systems (DES) was used to model the buildings and create initial Modelica models for the district systems. Finally, the DES models were tuned and simulated in Dymola, and the outputs were post-processed for verification and to calculate the electrical and thermal grid impact metrics. This is the first documentation of this workflow and its complete analysis. The three designed systems are compared via their grid metrics including: total energy consumption, electrical demand peak loads, daily peak-to-valley ratios, and system ramping. A detailed discussion is provided about how each system impacts and interacts with the electric grid.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

FY26 Progress on Demonstration of a Multiphysics Steady State Capability for Modeling Core Radial Expansion in SFRs

Under the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program, an integrated multiphysics approach is being developed to model the core bowing phenomena important to liquid metal-cooled fast reactors. Core bowing is an important passive safety mechanism in liquid metal-cooled fast reactors and involves multiphysics effects including radiation transport, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mechanical response to temperature and flux gradients. This report summarizes recent progress on developing a multiphysics, MOOSE-based workflow to predict core bowing and associated reactivity feedback. Significant new capabilities in the reactor physics code Griffin - sodium backfill and pin power reconstruction for deformed geometries - were applied in this effort. This year’s work included verification, code comparisons, sensitivity studies, and coupled demonstrations that advance the state of MOOSE-based core bowing workflow. Griffin’s sodium backfill capability was verified by demonstrating that its automated treatment of geometry expansion and material-density updates reproduces manual calculations exactly, confirming solid mass conservation and proper coolant backfilling in expanded geometries. Reconstructed pin powers were compared for Griffin’s ductheterogeneous and ring-heterogeneous treatments in single-, seven-, and nineteen-assembly cases, with best agreement observed in lower-leakage configurations and the duct-heterogeneous approach offering substantially lower computational cost. Thermal-hydraulic sensitivity sensitivities showed that MOOSE SCM, SAM, and CFD are expected to produce similar deformation predictions despite variances in their temperature predictions, and that explicit treatment of inter-assembly flow becomes increasingly important as gap flow rate increases. Finally, coupled demonstrations on small multi-assembly configurations using Griffin, MOOSE Solid Mechanics, MOOSE SCM, and Heat Conduction produced physically consistent reactivity feedback from thermal expansion and bowing. The coupled demonstrations simulated grid plate expansion as well as resultant core bowing at full power conditions. Simplifications were made in current workflow, namely the assumption of instantaneous full power conditions following hot zero power, and pre-expanding the Griffin geometry axially due to lack of an axial fuel pin expansion model and temperature feedback to Griffin.

Wozniak, Nicholas↗

DOE OSTI2021

Facilitating Staging-based Unstructured Mesh Processing to Support Hybrid In-Situ Workflows

In-situ and in-transit processing alleviate the gap between the computing and I/O capabilities by scheduling data analytics close to the data source. Hybrid in-situ processing splits data analytics into two stages: the data processing that runs in-situ aims to extract regions of interest, which are then transferred to staging services for further in-transit analytics. To facilitate this type of hybrid in-situ processing, the data staging service needs to support complex intermediate data representations generated/consumed by the in-situ tasks. Unstructured (or irregular) mesh is one such derived data representation that is typically used and bridges simulation data and analytics. However, how staging services efficiently support unstructured mesh transfer and processing remains to be explored. This paper investigates design options for transferring and processing unstructured mesh data using staging services. Using polygonal mesh data as an example, we show that hybrid in-situ workflows with staging-based unstructured mesh processing can effectively support hybrid in-situ workflows, and can significantly decrease data movement overheads.

data-driven↗

DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Semi-grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation of the acrolein induced surface segregation and aggregation of AgPd with machine learning surrogate models

The single atom alloy of AgPd has been found to be a promising catalyst for the selective hydrogenation of acrolein. It is also known that the formation of Pd islands on the surface will greatly reduce the selectivity of the reaction. As a result, the surface segregation and aggregation of Pd on the AgPd surface under reaction conditions of selective hydrogenation of acrolein are of great interest. In this work, we lay out a workflow that can predict the surface segregation and aggregation of Pd on a FCC(111) AgPd surface with and without the presence of acrolein. We use machine learning surrogate models to predict the AgPd bulk energy, AgPd slab energy, and acrolein adsorption energy on AgPd slabs. Then, we use the semi-grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation to predict the surface segregation and aggregation under different bulk Pd concentrations. Under vacuum conditions, our method predicts that only trace amount of Pd will exist on the surface at Pd bulk concentrations less than 20%. However, with the presence of acrolein, Pd will start to aggregate as dimers on the surface at Pd bulk concentrations as low as 6.5%.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗