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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Development and Application of Schema Based Occupant-Centric Building Performance Metrics

Occupant behavior can significantly influence the operation and performance of buildings. Many occupant-centric key performance indicators (KPIs) rely on having accurate counts of the number of occupants in a building, which is very different to how occupancy information is currently collected in the majority of buildings today. To address this gap, the authors develop a standardized methodology for the calculation of percent space utilization for buildings, which is formulated with respect to two prevalent operational data schemas: the Brick Schema and Project Haystack. The methodology is scalable across different levels of spatial granularity and irrespective of sensor placement. Moreover, the methods are intended to make use of typical occupancy sensors that capture presence level occupancy and not counts of people. Since occupant-hours is a preferable metric to use in KPI calculations, a method to convert between percent space utilization and occupant-hours using the design occupancy for a space is also developed. The methodology is demonstrated on a small commercial office space in Boulder, Colorado using data collected between June 2018 and February 2019. A multiple linear regression is performed that shows strong evidence for a relationship between building energy consumption and percent space utilization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

FiXR : a framework to reconstruct fiber cross-sections from X-ray fiber diffraction experiments

Ab initio reconstruction methods have revolutionized the capabilities of small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), allowing the data-driven discovery of previously unknown molecular conformations, exploiting optimization heuristics and assumptions behind the composition of globular molecules. While these methods have been successful for the analysis of small particles, their impact on fibrillar assemblies has been more limited. The micrometre-range size of these assemblies and the complex interaction of their periodicities in their scattering profiles indicate that the discovery of fibril structures from SAXS measurements requires novel approaches beyond extending existing tools for molecular discovery. In this work, it is proposed to use SAXS measurements, together with diffraction theory, to infer the electron distribution of the average cross-section of a fiber. This cross-section is modeled as a discrete electron density with continuous support, allowing representations beyond binary distributions. Additional constraints, such as non-negativity or smoothness/connectedness, can also be added to the framework. The proposed approach is tested using simulated SAXS data from amyloid β fibril models and using measured data of Tobacco mosaic virus from SAXS experiments, recovering the geometry and density of the cross-sections in all cases. The approach is further tested by analyzing SAXS data from different amyloid β fibril assemblies, with results that are in agreement with previously proposed models from cryo-EM measurements. The limitations of the proposed method, together with an analysis of the robustness of the method and the combination with different experimental sources, are also discussed.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2021

Underlying each of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level financial data (Fujita, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include: Discount rate estimation methods and rationale; -Data sources used and data limitations; -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis; -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Selective inhibition of human translation termination by a drug-like compound

Methods to directly inhibit gene expression using small molecules hold promise for the development of new therapeutics targeting proteins that have evaded previous attempts at drug discovery. Among these, small molecules including the drug-like compound PF-06446846 (PF846) selectively inhibit the synthesis of specific proteins, by stalling translation elongation. These molecules also inhibit translation termination by an unknown mechanism. Using cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) and biochemical approaches, we show that PF846 inhibits translation termination by arresting the nascent chain (NC) in the ribosome exit tunnel. The arrested NC adopts a compact α-helical conformation that induces 28 S rRNA nucleotide rearrangements that suppress the peptidyl transferase center (PTC) catalytic activity stimulated by eukaryotic release factor 1 (eRF1). These data support a mechanism of action for a small molecule targeting translation that suppresses peptidyl-tRNA hydrolysis promoted by eRF1, revealing principles of eukaryotic translation termination and laying the foundation for new therapeutic strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Updated Godiva-IV Benchmark Preview

A note of errata prepended to the Godiva-IV delayed-critical benchmark (HEU-MET-FAST- 086) identifies two corrections to be made to the model: The glory hole in the spindle should be made larger, and the height of the safety block should be made smaller (and therefore its density made larger). In addition, the safety block at its full-in position is closer to the inner subassembly plate than was modeled in the benchmark. These changes have been made to HEU-MET-FAST-086 Case 4 in order to estimate the effect on $\kappa$ eff and on the neutron flux spectrum. Using smaller separation, a smaller safety block, and a larger glory hole caused keff to increase by 453 ± 1 pcm from the benchmark. The latest nuclear data, ENDF/B-VIII.0, have also been used, causing $\kappa$ eff to increase another 37 ± 1 pcm. Flux spectra were compared in a modeled fission foil (near the center of Godiva-IV in the glory hole) and at three external (point) detectors. Within the fission foil, using ENDF/B-VIII.0 induced changes in the flux spectrum similar in size to the changes due to using smaller separation, a smaller safety block, and a larger glory hole. At the detectors, using ENDF/B- VIII.0 induced changes in the flux spectrum much larger than those due to changing the model. In other words, the corrections to the benchmark model cause a large increase in $\kappa$ eff , but the changes to the neutron flux spectrum are small compared to those caused by using the latest nuclear data. This study presents a preview of results expected during the reevaluation of the Godiva IV benchmark, but it is not a substitute for the full reevaluation.A note of errata prepended to the Godiva-IV delayed-critical benchmark (HEU-MET-FAST- 086) identifies two corrections to be made to the model: The glory hole in the spindle should be made larger, and the height of the safety block should be made smaller (and therefore its density made larger). In addition, the safety block at its full-in position is closer to the inner subassembly plate than was modeled in the benchmark. These changes have been made to HEU-MET-FAST-086 Case 4 in order to estimate the effect on $\kappa$ eff and on the neutron flux spectrum. Using smaller separation, a smaller safety block, and a larger glory hole caused $\kappa$ eff to increase by 453 ± 1 pcm from the benchmark. The latest nuclear data, ENDF/B-VIII.0, have also been used, causing $\kappa$ eff to increase another 37 ± 1 pcm. Flux spectra were compared in a modeled fission foil (near the center of Godiva-IV in the glory hole) and at three external (point) detectors. Within the fission foil, using ENDF/B-VIII.0 induced changes in the flux spectrum similar in size to the changes due to using smaller separation, a smaller safety block, and a larger glory hole. At the detectors, using ENDF/B- VIII.0 induced changes in the flux spectrum much larger than those due to changing the model. In other words, the corrections to the benchmark model cause a large increase in $\kappa$ eff , but the changes to the neutron flux spectrum are small compared to those caused by using the latest nuclear data. This study presents a preview of results expected during the reevaluation of the Godiva IV benchmark, but it is not a substitute for the full reevaluation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

An improved representation of the relationship between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance leads to more stable estimation of conductance parameters and improves the goodness-of-fit across diverse data sets

Stomata play a central role in surface-atmosphere exchange by controlling the flux of water and CO 2 between the leaf and the atmosphere. Representation of stomatal conductance (g sw ) is therefore an essential component of models that seek to simulate water and CO 2 exchange in plants and ecosystems. For given environmental conditions at the leaf surface (CO 2 concentration and vapor pressure deficit or relative humidity), models typically assume a linear relationship between g sw and photosynthetic CO 2 assimilation (A). However, measurement of leaf-level g sw response curves to changes in A are rare, particularly in the tropics, resulting in only limited data to evaluate this key assumption. Here, we measured the response of g sw and A to irradiance in six tropical species at different leaf phenological stages. We showed that the relationship between g sw and A was not linear, challenging the key assumption upon which optimality theory is based-that the marginal cost of water gain is constant. Our data showed that increasing A resulted in a small increase in g sw at low irradiance, but a much larger increase at high irradiance. We reformulated the popular Unified Stomatal Optimization (USO) model to account for this phenomenon and to enable consistent estimation of the key conductance parameters g 0 and g 1 . Our modification of the USO model improved the goodness-of-fit and reduced bias, enabling robust estimation of conductance parameters at any irradiance. In addition, our modification revealed previously undetectable relationships between the stomatal slope parameter g 1 and other leaf traits. We also observed nonlinear behavior between A and g sw in independent datasets that included data collected from attached and detached leaves, and from plants grown at elevated CO 2 concentration. We propose that this empirical modification of the USO model can improve the measurement of g sw parameters and the estimation of plant and ecosystem-scale water and CO 2 fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence for Plant-Conserved Region Mediated Trimeric CESAs in Plant Cellulose Synthase Complexes

Higher plants synthesize cellulose using membrane-bound, six-lobed cellulose synthase complexes, each lobe containing trimeric cellulose synthases (CESAs). Although molecular biology reports support heteromeric trimers composed of different isoforms, a homomeric trimer was reported for in vitro studies of the catalytic domain of CESA1 of Arabidopsis (AtCESA1CatD) and confirmed in cryoEM structures of full-length CESA8 and CESA7 of poplar and cotton, respectively. In both structures, a small portion of the plant-conserved region (P-CR) forms the only contacts between catalytic domains of the monomers. Here, we report inter-subunit lysine-crosslinks that localize to the small P-CR, negative-stain EM structure, and modeling data for homotrimers of AtCESA1CatD. Molecular dynamics simulations for AtCESA1CatD trimers based on the CESA8 cryoEM structure were stable and dependent upon a small set of residue contacts. The results suggest that homomeric CESA trimers may be important for the synthesis of primary and secondary cell walls and identify key residues for future mutagenic studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Making Invisible Visible: Data-Driven Seismic Inversion With Spatio-Temporally Constrained Data Augmentation

Deep learning and data-driven approaches have shown great potential in scientific domains. The promise of data-driven techniques relies on the availability of a large volume of high-quality training datasets. Due to the high cost of obtaining data through expensive physical experiments, instruments, and simulations, data augmentation techniques for scientific applications have emerged as a new direction for obtaining scientific data recently. However, existing data augmentation techniques originating from computer vision yield physically unacceptable data samples that are not helpful for the domain problems that we are interested in. In this article, we develop new data augmentation techniques based on convolutional neural networks. Specifically, our generative models leverage different physics knowledge (such as governing equations, observable perception, and physics phenomena) to improve the quality of the synthetic data. To validate the effectiveness of our data augmentation techniques, we apply them to solve a subsurface seismic full-waveform inversion using simulated CO 2 leakage data. Our interest is to invert for subsurface velocity models associated with very small CO 2 leakage. We validate the performance of our methods using comprehensive numerical tests. Here via comparison and analysis, we show that data-driven seismic imaging can be significantly enhanced by using our data augmentation techniques. Particularly, the imaging quality has been improved by 15% in test scenarios of general-sized leakage and 17% in small-sized leakage when using an augmented training set obtained with our techniques.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting for ESCAPE: A Multi-Institution Hybrid Forecasting and Nowcasting Operation for Sea-Breeze Convection Supporting a Ground-Based and Airborne Field Campaign

The Experiment of Sea-Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field project deployed two aircraft and ground-based assets in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, between 27 May and 2 July 2022, examining how meteorological conditions, dynamics, and aerosols control the initiation, early growth stage, and evolution of coastal convective clouds. To ensure that airborne- and ground-based assets were deployed appropriately, a forecasting and nowcasting team was formed. Daily forecasts guided real-time decision-making by assessing synoptic weather conditions, environmental aerosol, and a variety of atmospheric modeling data to assign a probability for meeting specific ESCAPE campaign objectives. During the research flights, a small team of forecasters provided “nowcasting” support by analyzing radar, satellite, and new model data in real time. The nowcasting team proved invaluable to the campaign operation, as sometimes changing environmental conditions affected, for example, the timing of convective initiation. In addition to the success of the forecasting and nowcasting teams, the ESCAPE campaign offered a unique “testbed” opportunity where in-person and virtual support both contributed to campaign objectives. The forecasting and nowcasting teams were each composed of new and experienced forecasters alike, where new forecasters were given invaluable experience that would otherwise be difficult to attain. Both teams received training on forecast models, map analysis, Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), and thermodynamic sounding analysis before the beginning of the campaign. In this article, the ESCAPE forecasting and nowcasting teams reflect on these experiences, providing potentially useful advice for future field campaigns requiring forecasting and nowcasting support in a hybrid virtual/in-person framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Propagating sample variance uncertainties in redshift calibration: simulations, theory, and application to the COSMOS2015 data

ABSTRACT Cosmological analyses of galaxy surveys rely on knowledge of the redshift distribution of their galaxy sample. This is usually derived from a spectroscopic and/or many-band photometric calibrator survey of a small patch of sky. The uncertainties in the redshift distribution of the calibrator sample include a contribution from shot noise, or Poisson sampling errors, but, given the small volume they probe, they are dominated by sample variance introduced by large-scale structures. Redshift uncertainties have been shown to constitute one of the leading contributions to systematic uncertainties in cosmological inferences from weak lensing and galaxy clustering, and hence they must be propagated through the analyses. In this work, we study the effects of sample variance on small-area redshift surveys, from theory to simulations to the COSMOS2015 data set. We present a three-step Dirichlet method of resampling a given survey-based redshift calibration distribution to enable the propagation of both shot noise and sample variance uncertainties. The method can accommodate different levels of prior confidence on different redshift sources. This method can be applied to any calibration sample with known redshifts and phenotypes (i.e. cells in a self-organizing map, or some other way of discretizing photometric space), and provides a simple way of propagating prior redshift uncertainties into cosmological analyses. As a worked example, we apply the full scheme to the COSMOS2015 data set, for which we also present a new, principled SOM algorithm designed to handle noisy photometric data. We make available a catalogue of the resulting resamplings of the COSMOS2015 galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for the robust computation of the long-period seismic spectrum of broad-band arrays

SUMMARY We describe array methods to search for low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) signals in long-period seismic data using Fourier analysis. This is motivated by published results that find evidence of solar free oscillations in the Earth's seismic hum. Previous work used data from only one station. In this paper, we describe methods for computing spectra from array data. Arrays reduce noise level through averaging and provide redundancy that we use to distinguish coherent signal from a random background. We describe two algorithms for calculating a robust spectrum from seismic arrays, an algorithm that automatically removes impulsive transient signals from data, a jackknife method for estimating the variance of the spectrum, and a method for assessing the significance of an entire spectral band. We show examples of their application to data recorded by the Homestake Mine 3-D array in Lead, SD and the Piñon Flats PY array. These are two of the quietest small aperture arrays ever deployed in North America. The underground Homestake data has exceptionally low noise, and the borehole sensors of the PY array also have very low noise, making these arrays well suited to finding very weak signals. We find that our methods remove transient signals effectively from the data so that even low-SNR signals in the seismic background can be found and tested. Additionally, we find that the jackknife variance estimate is comparable to the noise floor, and we present initial evidence for solar g-modes in our data through the T2 test, a multivariate generalization of Student's t-test.

Caton, Ross C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A network approach for multiscale catchment classification using traits

Abstract. The classification of river catchments into groups with similar biophysical characteristics is useful to understand and predict their hydrological behavior. The increasing availability of remote sensing and other large-scale geospatial datasets has enabled the use of advanced data-driven approaches to classify catchments using traits such as topography, geology, climate, land cover, land use, and human influence. Unsupervised clustering algorithms based on the Euclidean distance are commonly used for trait-based classification but are not suitable for highly dimensional data. In this study we present a new network-based method for multi-scale catchment classification, which can be applied to large datasets and used to determine the traits associated with different catchment groups. In this framework, two networks are analyzed in parallel: the first being where the nodes are traits and the second being where the nodes are catchments. In both cases, edges represent pairwise similarity, and a network cluster detection algorithm is used for the classification. The trait network is used to investigate redundancy in the trait data and to condense this information into a small number of interpretable categories. The catchments network is used to classify the catchments into clusters and to identify representative catchments for the different groups using the degree centrality metric. We apply this method to classify 9067 river catchments across the contiguous United States at both regional and continental scales using 274 non-categorical traits. At the continental scale, we identify 25 interpretable trait categories and 34 catchment clusters of sizes greater than 50. We find that catchments with similar trait categories are typically located in the same region, with different spatial patterns emerging among clusters dominated by natural and anthropogenic traits. We also find that the catchment clusters exhibit distinct hydrological behavior based on an analysis of streamflow indices. This network approach provides several advantages over traditional means of classification, including better separation of clusters, the use of alternate similarity metrics that are more suitable for highly dimensional data, and reducing redundancy in the trait information. The paired catchment–trait networks enable analysis of hydrological behavior using the dominant trait categories for each catchment cluster. The approach can be used at multiple spatial scales since the network topologies adjust automatically to reflect the trait patterns at the scale of investigation. Finally, the representative catchments identified as hub nodes in the network can be used to guide transferable observational and modeling strategies. The method is broadly applicable beyond hydrology for classification of other complex systems that utilize different types of trait datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

What you get is not always what you see—pitfalls in solar array assessment using overhead imagery

Effective integration planning for small, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays into electric power grids requires access to high quality data: the location and power capacity of individual solar PV arrays. Unfortunately, national databases of small-scale solar PV do not exist; those that do are limited in their spatial resolution, typically aggregated up to state or national levels. While several promising approaches for solar PV detection have been published, strategies for evaluating the performance of these models are often highly heterogeneous from study to study. The resulting comparison of these methods for practical applications for energy assessments becomes challenging and may imply that the reported performance evaluations overly optimistic. The heterogeneity comes in many forms, each of which we explore in this work: the degree of diversity of the locations and sensors (e.g. different satellites, aerial photography) from which the training and validation data originate, the validation of ground truth (manual annotation of imagery vs known solar PV locations), the level of spatial aggregation (e.g. array-level vs regional estimates), and inconsistencies in the training and validation datasets (e.g. different datasets are used for each study and those data are not always made accessible). For each, we discuss emerging practices from the literature to address them or suggest directions of future research. As part of our investigation, we evaluate solar PV identification performance in two large regions: the entire state of Connecticut and the city of San Diego, CA. In Connecticut, we also use 33,114 known parcel-level solar PV installations from Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset to evaluate parcel-level performance and evaluate capacity estimates using 169 municipalities. We also make our code (which we call SolarMapper), pre-trained models, training data, and predictions publicly available and provide a web portal for interactively inspecting each prediction that was made. Here our findings suggest that traditional performance evaluation of the automated identification of solar PV from satellite imagery may be optimistic due to common limitations in the validation process. The takeaways from this work are intended to inform and catalyze the large-scale practical application of automated solar PV assessment techniques by energy researchers and professionals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updates to the ATLAS Data Carousel Project

The High Luminosity upgrade to the LHC (HL-LHC) is expected to deliver scientific data at the multi-exabyte scale. In order to address this unprecedented data storage challenge, the ATLAS experiment launched the Data Carousel project in 2018. Data Carousel is a tape-driven workflow whereby bulk production campaigns with input data resident on tape are executed by staging and promptly processing a sliding window to disk buffer such that only a small fraction of inputs are pinned on disk at any one time. Data Carousel is now in production for ATLAS in Run3. In this paper, we provide updates on recent Data Carousel R&D projects, including data-on-demand and tape smart writing. Data-on-demand removes from disk data that has not been accessed for a predefined period, when users request them, they will be either staged from tape or recreated by following the original production steps. Tape smart writing employs intelligent algorithms for file placement on tape in order to retrieve data back more efficiently, which is our long term strategy to achieve optimal tape usage in Data Carousel.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ring Pull Strain Analysis Version 1.1

This report details an analysis package, Ring Pull Strain Analysis (RPSA), that can be used to present and quantify digital image correlation (DIC) data as it relates to a gaugeless ring pull test. Gaugeless ring pull is a testing technique for mechanical testing of small annular samples, usually cut from a thin-walled tube. DIC data is often necessary for this kind of test because bending moments present on the ring cause a non-uniform strain distribution and localized measurements are necessary. In addition, the annular geometry of a ring lends itself to a polar representation, which is not present with typical DIC analysis methods. RPSA was made to calculate and plot the polar representation of strain from standard pre-processed DIC data of a gaugeless ring pull test. Further analysis can be done on ring pull including a quasi-uniaxial tensile analysis and coating analysis, which are also performed by RPSA. In addition, due to the universality of DIC plotting and ring pull test analysis, RPSA can accommodate a wide variety of tests, though it is tailored for ring pull testing. This report details how RPSA works, including the theory, assumptions, and logic behind the calculations and the structure of the program.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

SAIL-Net CloudPuck CCN Data

SAIL-Net is a DOE funded project in the East River Watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado with the goal of advancing our understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions in complex, mountainous regions. Through the deployment of a network of six low cost microphysics nodes in Fall 2021 in the same domain at the SAIL campaign, SAIL-Net provides data on aerosol size distributions, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleations particles (INP). This network enables the investigation of small-scale variations in complex terrain. This specific dataset provides the cleaned data recorded from the CloudPuck, an in house instrument made by Handix Scientific that counts CCN concentrations. The CloudPuck was deployed at the sites for the summer/fall of 2022 before winter conditions were too harsh to maintain the instrument. For more information on the the CloudPuck or how the raw data are processed, see the read me.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Theoretical and numerical studies of inverse source problem for the linear parabolic equation with sparse boundary measurements

We consider the inverse source problem in the parabolic equation, where the unknown source possesses the semi-discrete formulation. Theoretically, we prove that the flux data from any nonempty open subset of the boundary can uniquely determine the semi-discrete source. This means the observed area can be extremely small, and that is the reason we call it sparse boundary data. For the numerical reconstruction, we formulate the problem from the Bayesian sequential prediction perspective and conduct the numerical examples which estimate the space-time-dependent source state by state. To better demonstrate the method’s performance, we solve two common multiscale problems from two models with a long source sequence. The numerical results illustrate that the inversion is accurate and efficient.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗