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NASA NTRS2011

Solar EUV Variability from FISM and SDO/EVE During Solar Minimum, Active, and Flaring Time Periods

The Living With a Star (LWS) Focus Science Team has identified three periods of different solar activity levels for which they will be determining the Earth's Ionosphere and Thermosphere response. Not only will the team be comparing individual models (e.g. FLIP, T1MEGCM, GLOW) outcome driven by the various levels of solar activity, but the models themselves will also be compared. These models all rely on the input solar EUV (0.1 -190 nm) irradiance to drive the variability. The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) and the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard provide the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) provide the most accurate quantification of these irradiances. Presented and discussed are how much the solar EUV irradiance changes during these three scenarios, both as a function of activity and wavelength.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Coronal and chromospheric physics

Achievements and completed results are discussed for investigations covering solar activity during the solar maximum mission and the solar maximum year; other studies of solar activity and variability; infrared and submillimeter photometry; solar-related atomic physics; coronal and transition region studies; prominence research; chromospheric research in quiet and active regions; solar dynamics; eclipse studies; and polarimetry and magnetic field measurements. Contributions were also made in defining the photometric filterograph instrument for the solar optical telescope, designing the combined filter spectrograph, and in expressing the scientific aims and implementation of the solar corona diagnostic mission.

Jefferies, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A study of solar activity-ozone relationship from Nimbus-4 BUV data

The total O3 and the O3 mixing ratio at various pressure levels in the stratosphere measured from the Nimbus-4 BUV experiment over a 7-yr period (1970 to 1977) comprises a comprehensive data base available to study the possible effects of solar variability on stratospheric O3. It is shown that with the decrease in solar activity from 1970 to 1976, the globally averaged O3 inferred from Nimbus-4 data decreases from about 10 to 12 percent in the upper stratosphere to about 1 to 3 percent in the lower stratosphere. The systematic decrease in O3 seems to be correlated with the conventional indices of solar activity; however, it is difficult to account for the observed changes at various pressure levels with the current understanding of the photochemical models and the solar UV flux variations over a solar cycle.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Software Displays Data on Active Regions of the Sun

The Solar Active Region Display System is a computer program that generates, in near real time, a graphical display of parameters indicative of the spatial and temporal variations of activity on the Sun. These parameters include histories and distributions of solar flares, active region growth, coronal mass ejections, size, and magnetic configuration. By presenting solar-activity data in graphical form, this program accelerates, facilitates, and partly automates what had previously been a time-consuming mental process of interpretation of solar-activity data presented in tabular and textual formats. Intended for original use in predicting space weather in order to minimize the exposure of astronauts to ionizing radiation, the program might also be useful on Earth for predicting solar-wind-induced ionospheric effects, electric currents, and potentials that could affect radio-communication systems, navigation systems, pipelines, and long electric-power lines. Raw data for the display are obtained automatically from the Space Environment Center (SEC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Other data must be obtained from the NOAA SEC by verbal communication and entered manually. The Solar Active Region Display System automatically accounts for the latitude dependence of the rate of rotation of the Sun, by use of a mathematical model that is corrected with NOAA SEC active-region position data once every 24 hours. The display includes the date, time, and an image of the Sun in H light overlaid with latitude and longitude coordinate lines, dots that mark locations of active regions identified by NOAA, identifying numbers assigned by NOAA to such regions, and solar-region visual summary (SRVS) indicators associated with some of the active regions. Each SRVS indicator is a small pie chart containing five equal sectors, each of which is color-coded to provide a semiquantitative indication of the degree of hazard posed by one aspect of the activity at the indicated location. The five aspects in question are the history of solar flares, the history of coronal mass ejections, the growth or decay of activity, the overall size, and the magnetic configuration. Mouse-clicking on an active-region-marking dot, SRVS indicator, or NOAA region number causes the program to generate a solar-region summary table (SRT) for the active region in question. The SRT contains additional quantitative and qualitative data, beyond those contained in the SRVS: These data include the solar coordinates of the region, the area of the region and its change in area during the past 24 hours, the change in the number of sunspots in the region during the past 24 hours, the magnetic configuration, and the types, dates, and times of the most recent flare and coronal mass ejection.

Golightly, Mike↗
NASA NTRS1986

The solar and dynamically induced oscillations in the stratosphere

The temporal and spatial features of stratospheric fluctuations are analyzed using 2.5 years of ozone and temperature data from the Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet and the SAMS experiments. It is observed that the oscillations are dynamically induced perturbations in the winter hemisphere and the 27-day modulation of the solar UV radiation. The fluctuations in the ozone and temperature are compared with solar activity. The effects of solar and temperature perturbations on stratospheric ozone are examined; it is shown that the dynamically induced oscillations are global and independent of solar activity. The seasonal, latitudinal, and altitudinal variations of the regression factors and their influence on the ozone are studied. Multiple regression and cross-spectral analyses of ozone, temperature, and solar flux data reveal that the ozone mixing ratio is more sensitive to changes in temperature than changes in solar activity.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Observed Helicity of Active Region Magnetic Fields in Solar Cycle 21

We report the results of a study of magnetic helicity in solar active regions during solar cycles 21 and 22 from observations with the Marshall Space Flight Center's solar vector magnetograph. Using the force-free parameter a as the proxy for helicity, we calculated an average value of a for each of 91 active regions fiom a total of 683 vector magnetograms that were obtained during the period March 1980 to July 1993. The signs of these average values of alpha were correlated with the latitude of the active regions to test the hemispherical rule of helicity that has been proposed for solar magnetic fields: negative helicity predominant in northern latitudes, positive in the southern ones. We have found that of the 65 regions that were observed in cycle 21,49% obey the hemispherical rule and 51% do not. On the other hand, for the 26 regions in cycle 22,65% do exhibit this correlation.

Hagyard, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A survey of coronal holes and their solar wind associations throughout sunspot cycle 20

Space-borne X-ray and XUV observations during the period 1963-74 (corresponding approximately with solar cycle 20) have been used to investigate the relationship between the occurrence and variability of coronal holes and solar activity, i.e., the solar wind. Results indicate that polar holes (prominent at solar minimum) decreased in area as solar activity increased. The equatorial holes were also small during this period and persisted for one or two solar rotations only. Solar wind streams in excess of 500 km/s were associated with coronal holes at less than 40 deg latitude, although solar coronal holes appear to have no associated wind streams at earth.

Broussard, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Dynamics of the solar interior and the solar dynamo

The solar convection zone is the origin of most of the variations in solar output observed or suspected to occur. The Sun's magnetic field is rooted there, and solar activity and the solar cycle are generated and maintained there. Changes in the magnetic fields which reach into the solar atmosphere and beyond to interplanetary space are largely determined by the dynamo action of velocity fields in the convection zone. If changes in solar luminosity occur on time scales of months to millenia, such changes probably have their origin in the changing dynamics of the convection zone, either as cause of or in response to long term changes in the level of solar activity. Fluctuations would occur in the rate at which energy is brought to the surface by convection, and the solar diameter would be slightly modified. To describe and ultimately understand the global workings of the solar dynamo requires simultaneous high quality photospheric observations of solar velocities, magnetic fields, intensity patterns, luminosity and various radiative outputs. The observations must be nearly continuous in time and of long duration-most or all of a solar cycle. Such a measurement program should be a major part of the proposed Solar Cycle and Dynamics Mission.

P A Gilman↗
NASA NTRS1979

A broad look at solar physics adapted from the solar physics study of August 1975

The current status of our knowledge of the basic mechanisms involved in fundamental solar phenomena is reviewed. These include mechanisms responsible for heating the corona, the generation of the solar wind, the particle acceleration in flares, and the dissipation of magnetic energy in field reversal regions, known as current sheets. The discussion covers solar flares and high-energy phenomena, solar active regions; solar interior, convection, and activity; the structure and energetics of the quiet solar atmosphere; the structure of the corona; the solar composition; and solar terrestrial interactions. It also covers a program of solar research, including the special observational requirements for spectral and angular resolution, sensitivity, time resolution, and duration of the techniques employed.

Parker, E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

predictions↗
NASA NTRS1990

Jovian H2 dayglow emission (1978-1989)

The IUE data set accumulated through 10 years of Jovian equatorial observations is used to measure the long-term temporal variation of the H2 dayglow emission. The model that best fits the data indicates a possible correlation between long-term solar activity and the Jovian H2 emission in the region 1500-1700 A between 1978 and 1989, which spans the decline in solar activity for solar cycle 21 and the rise in solar activity accompanying solar cycle 22. The magnitude of the observed variation is closer to that of the solar Ly-alpha flux than the 10.7 cm radio flux. Short-wavelength H2 band emission intensity is inconsistent with the amount of long-wavelength emission but may be reconciled if relatively low-energy excitation or fluorescence of solar radiation is invoked. No persistent longitudinal feature analogous to the H I Ly-alpha can be identified.

Mcgrath, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The SAMEX Vector Magnetograph: A Design Study for a Space-Based Solar Vector Magnetograph

This report presents the results of a pre-phase A study performed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory (AFGL) to develop a design concept for a space-based solar vector magnetograph and hydrogen-alpha telescope. These are two of the core instruments for a proposed Air Force mission, the Solar Activities Measurement Experiments (SAMEX). This mission is designed to study the processes which give rise to activity in the solar atmosphere and to develop techniques for predicting solar activity and its effects on the terrestrial environment.

Hagyard, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Solar luminosity variations in solar cycle 21

Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled.

Willson, Richard C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Electromechanical coupling of the solar atmosphere; Proceedings of the OSL Workshop, Capri, Italy, May 27-31, 1991

The present conference discusses the role of magnetic flux tubes as communication channels, flux tube sizes and their temporal evolution, magnetic field line topology in the solar active regions, weak solar magnetic fields, explosive events and magnetic reconnection in the solar atmosphere, and 3D kinematic reconnection of plasmoids with nulls. Also discussed are coronal heating mechanisms, coronal heating through a lack of MHD equilibrium, Alfven waves in current-carrying inhomogeneous plasmas, hydrostatic models of X-ray coronal loops, MHD turbulence in an expanding atmosphere, and hot mass transport in the solar active prominence.

Spicer, Daniel S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Maunder's Butterfly Diagram in the 21st Century

E. Walter Maunder created his first "Butterfly Diagram" showing the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes over the course of each of two solar cycles in 1903. This diagram was constructed from data obtained through the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) starting in 1874. The RGO continued to acquire data up until 1976. Fortunately, the US Air Force (USAF) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have continued to acquire similar data since that time. This combined RGO/USAF/NOAA dataset on sunspot group positions and areas now extends virtually unbroken from the 19th century to the 21st century. The data represented in the Butterfly Diagram contain a wealth of information about solar activity and the solar cycle. Solar activity (as represented by the sunspots) appears at mid-latitudes at the start of each cycle. The bands of activity spread in each hemisphere and then drift toward the equator as the cycle progresses. Although the equator itself tends to be avoided, the spread of activity reaches the equator at about the time of cycle maximum. The cycles overlap at minimum with old cycle spots appearing near the equator while new cycle spots emerge in the mid-latitudes. Large amplitude cycles tend to have activity starting at higher latitudes with the activity spreading to higher latitudes as well. Large amplitude cycles also tend to be preceded by earlier cycles with faster drift rates. These drift rates may be tied to the Sun s meridional circulation - a component in many dynamo theories for the origin of the sunspot cycle. The Butterfly Diagram must be reproduced in any successful dynamo model for the Sun.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

11- and 22-year variations of the cosmic ray density and of the solar wind speed

Cosmic ray density variations for 17-21 solar activity cycles and the solar wind speed for 20-21 events are investigated. The 22-year solar wind speed recurrence was found in even and odd cycles. The 22-year variations of cosmic ray density were found to be opposite that of solar wind speed and solar activity. The account of solar wind speed in 11-year variations significantly decreases the modulation region of cosmic rays when E = 10-20 GeV.

Chirkov, N. P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Solar cycle effects upon the relationship of Ne and Te in the F-region

Data from the Atmospheric Explorer-C recorded during the rise in solar activity from 1975 to 1978, and Dynamic Explorer-2 data recorded at solar maximum are used to examine how the relation between electron temperature and density in the F-region of the ionosphere is altered by solar activity. It is found that the solar maximum temperature Te is a factor of two larger than the solar minimum Te for the same values of electron density. Temperature does not necessarily increase in response to solar activity because electron density increases enough to approximately cancel the effect of higher solar extreme ultraviolet heating. The effect of solar activity is accounted for by a simple function of the F (10.7 cm) index which multiplies the solar minimum equation from a previous study (Brace and Theis, 1978).

Brace, L. H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗