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At least 577 records · Page 32

The Cumulus and Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD)

Low clouds continue to contribute greatly to the uncertainty in cloud feedback estimates. Depending on whether a region is dominated by cumulus (Cu) or stratocumulus (Sc) clouds, the interannual low-cloud feedback is somewhat different in both spaceborne and large-eddy simulation studies. Therefore, simulating the correct amount and variation of the Cu and Sc cloud distributions could be crucial to predict future cloud feedbacks. Here we document spatial distributions and profiles of Sc and Cu clouds derived from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) and CloudSat measurements. For this purpose, we create a new dataset called the Cumulus And Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD), which identifies Sc, broken Sc, Cu under Sc, Cu with stratiform outflow and Cu. To separate the Cu from Sc, we design an original method based on the cloud height, horizontal extent, vertical variability and horizontal continuity, which is separately applied to both CALIPSO and combined CloudSat–CALIPSO observations. First, the choice of parameters used in the discrimination algorithm is investigated and validated in selected Cu, Sc and Sc–Cu transition case studies. Then, the global statistics are compared against those from existing passive- and active-sensor satellite observations. Our results indicate that the cloud optical thickness – as used in passive-sensor observations – is not a sufficient parameter to discriminate Cu from Sc clouds, in agreement with previous literature. Using clustering-derived datasets shows better results although one cannot completely separate cloud types with such an approach. On the contrary, classifying Cu and Sc clouds and the transition between them based on their geometrical shape and spatial heterogeneity leads to spatial distributions consistent with prior knowledge of these clouds, from ground-based, ship-based and field campaigns. Furthermore, we show that our method improves existing Sc–Cu classifications by using additional information on cloud height and vertical cloud fraction variation. Finally, the CASCCAD datasets provide a basis to evaluate shallow convection and stratocumulus clouds on a global scale in climate models and potentially improve our understanding of low-level cloud feedbacks. The CASCCAD dataset (Cesana, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2667637) is available on the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) website at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/clouds/casccad/ (last access: 5 November 2019) and on the zenodo website at https://zenodo.org/record/2667637 (last access: 5 November 2019).

Cesana, Gregory V.↗

Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

Platnick, Steven E.↗

Parameter Estimation for Compact Binaries with Ground-Based Gravitational-Wave Observations Using the LALInference

The Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational wave (GW) detectors will begin operation in the coming years, with compact binary coalescence events a likely source for the first detections. The gravitational waveforms emitted directly encode information about the sources, including the masses and spins of the compact objects. Recovering the physical parameters of the sources from the GW observations is a key analysis task. This work describes the LALInference software library for Bayesian parameter estimation of compact binary signals, which builds on several previous methods to provide a well-tested toolkit which has already been used for several studies. We show that our implementation is able to correctly recover the parameters of compact binary signals from simulated data from the advanced GW detectors. We demonstrate this with a detailed comparison on three compact binary systems: a binary neutron star (BNS), a neutron star - black hole binary (NSBH) and a binary black hole (BBH), where we show a cross-comparison of results obtained using three independent sampling algorithms. These systems were analysed with non-spinning, aligned spin and generic spin configurations respectively, showing that consistent results can be obtained even with the full 15-dimensional parameter space of the generic spin configurations. We also demonstrate statistically that the Bayesian credible intervals we recover correspond to frequentist confidence intervals under correct prior assumptions by analysing a set of 100 signals drawn from the prior. We discuss the computational cost of these algorithms, and describe the general and problem-specific sampling techniques we have used to improve the efficiency of sampling the compact binary coalescence (CBC) parameter space.

gravitational wave↗

A Universal Algorithm for the Detection of Bi-directional Gage Output Characteristics

A universal algorithm was developed that may be used to assess the bi-directional characteristics of the gage outputs of a wind tunnel strain-gage balance. The algorithm assumes that balance loads and gage outputs are described in the design format of the balance. It can also be applied to balance calibration data that is processed by using either the Iterative Method or the Non-Iterative Method. The algorithm uses an estimate of the bi-directional part of a gage output at load capacity as input. In addition, the statistical significance of the principle absolute value term in the regression model of either the gage output or the related primary load component is determined. A gage output is assumed to be bi-directional if two conditions are fulfilled: the bi-directional part of the output at load capacity exceeds 0.5 percent of the maximum output at load capacity; the p-value of the principle absolute value term of the regression model of the balance data is less than the threshold of 0.001. Data from the calibration of two six-component force balances and one five-component semi-span balance are used to illustrate the application of the universal detection algorithm.

wind tunnel test↗

Random Dopant Induced Threshold Voltage Lowering and Fluctuations in Sub 50 nm MOSFETs: a Statistical 3D 'Atomistic' Simulation Study

A 3D 'atomistic' simulation study of random dopant induced threshold voltage fluctuations and lowering in sub 50 nm MOSFETs is presented. The attention is focused mainly on devices with 30 nm effective channel length which represent the expected level of scaling at the end of the Silicon Roadmap. An efficient algorithm, based on a single 3D ap solution of the Poisson equation and a simplified current continuity equation, is used in the simulations. Large samples of microscopically different devices (typically 200) arc used in order to obtain statistically reliable results. The influence of different aspects of the conventional MOSFET design on the threshold voltage fluctuations and lowering are investigated. Results for fluctuation resistant device architectures based on low-doped epitaxial channel MOSFETs are also presented.

Asenov, Asen↗

Algorithmic Classification of Raman Spectra Biosignatures: Improving Life Detection Confidence

“Agnostic” biosignatures – indicators of life (or the absence of life), independent of a particular biochemistry – are increasingly considered a high standard for life detection. The Ladder of Life Detection (2018) called for investigating how combinations of independent and different potential biosignatures affect confidence. To address this gap, statistical classification of elemental abundances, isotopic fractionation, and reflectance spectroscopy (VNIR) has been implemented. Raman spectroscopy, highly desirable due to its wide availability, has the potential to improve this predictive power. This work implemented biosignature classification algorithms on Raman data alone, in preparation for combination with the other data types. Raman spectroscopy data was collected from published databases and papers as part of a manually curated dataset of “indicative” and “non-indicative of life” samples. These currently include 61 non-indicative samples (meteorites, magnetite); 3 indicative living samples (bacteria); 20 indicative non-living samples (chalk, bone); and 12 indicative mixed (with non-indicative material) samples (soil, microbial mats). Laboratory work is ongoing to characterize additional samples, particularly a greater breadth of mixed systems. Spectra were interpolated, filtered with the Savitzsky-Golay filter, and de-noised. For a preliminary examination, agnostic features were manually extracted including mean intensity, number of peaks, and mean peak width. Different peak prominences and filtering polynomials were used to refine features. Classification algorithms were implemented: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), Gaussian naïve bayes (GNB). Lastly, Monte Carlo simulations on 1,000 50%-train-test-splits were used to validate classification performance and feature significance. The preliminary feature set achieved its highest AUC of 0.52 with LR, with no strongly discriminatory features. Work to improve feature extraction, such as through deep learning with back propagation, is planned. In future work, the Raman data will be combined with the other data types, and potentially new data types such as enantiomeric excess. This project was partially supported through the NASA Ames Project EXcellence (APEX) incubator program.

Astrobiology↗

A correction algorithm for particle size distribution measurements made with the forward-scattering spectrometer probe

A correction algorithm for evaluating the particle size distribution measurements of atmospheric aerosols obtained with a forward-scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP) is examined. A model based on Poisson statistics is employed to calculate the average diameter and rms width of the particle size distribution. The dead time and coincidence errors in the measured number density are estimated. The model generated data are compared with a Monte Carlo simulation of the FSSP operation. It is observed that the correlation between the actual and measured size distribution is nonlinear. It is noted that the algorithm permits more accurate calculation of the average diameter and rms width of the distribution compared to uncorrected measured quantities.

Lock, James A.↗

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Design of redundant systems

Algorithmic approach is useful for analysis of systems with noisy inputs and when outputs are required in terms of statistical quantities and probabilities of signal excursions beyond desired levels. Procedure can be used with circuits, chemical processes, material design, and other systems with known transfer functions and parameter tolerances.

Doty, L. F.↗

A study of digital holographic filters generation. Phase 2: Digital data communication system, volume 1

An empirical study of the performance of the Viterbi decoders in bursty channels was carried out and an improved algebraic decoder for nonsystematic codes was developed. The hybrid algorithm was simulated for the (2,1), k = 7 code on a computer using 20 channels having various error statistics, ranging from pure random error to pure bursty channels. The hybrid system outperformed both the algebraic and the Viterbi decoders in every case, except the 1% random error channel where the Viterbi decoder had one bit less decoding error.

Ingels, F. M.↗

Radar image enhancement and simulation as an aid to interpretation and training

Greatly increased activity in the field of radar image applications in the coming years demands that techniques of radar image analysis, enhancement, and simulation be developed now. Since the statistical nature of radar imagery differs from that of photographic imagery, one finds that the required digital image processing algorithms (e.g., for improved viewing and feature extraction) differ from those currently existing. This paper addresses these problems and discusses work at the Remote Sensing Laboratory in image simulation and processing, especially for systems comparable to the formerly operational SEASAT synthetic aperture radar.

Frost, V. S.↗

Grid-free simulation of diffusion using random walk methods

The simulation of the diffusion of a continuum field by the random walk (RW) displacement of a set of particles is considered. Elements of the gradients of the diffusive concentration are transported by computational particles. It is demonstrated that, by the use of concentration gradients in the RW process, statistical errors are reduced and each realization of the numerical solution is a representation of the exact solution. The algorithm is grid-free, and the computational elements move to follow the gradients; hence, the algorithm is self-adaptive, and uniform resolution is achieved for all times.

Ghoniem, A. F.↗

New aspects of the equilibrium pole tide

A new spherical harmonic algorithm is developed for the calculation of the loading and self-gravitating equilibrium pole tide. Based on a suggestion of Dahlen (1976), this approach minimizes the distortions in tide height caused by an incomplete representation of the ocean function. With slight modification this approach easily could be used to compute self-gravitating and loading lunisolar tides as well. Using the algorithm, the static pole tide is compared with tide observations at a variety of locations around the world, and statistically significant evidence for pole tide enhancements is found in midocean as well as the shallow seas. Also included is a reinvestigation of the effect of the static tide on the Chandler-wobble period. The difference between the wobble period of an oceanless elastic earth with a fluid core (Smith and Dahlen, 1981) and the period of an earth minus static oceans yields a 7.4-day discrepancy. It is concluded from tide observations that much of the discrepancy can probably be accounted for by nonequilibrium pole-tide behavior in the deep oceans.

Dickman, S. R.↗

Turbulence control on airborne laser platform

An avctive flow control device to generate large-scale, periodic structures in a turbulent shear flow is developed. Together with adaptive optics, the device may be used on airborne laser platforms to reduce or eliminate optical distortion caused by the turbulence in the aircraft's boundary layer. A flat plate towed in a water channel is used as a test bed. A cyclic jet issuing from a spanwise slot is used to collect the turbulent boundary layer for a finite time during its 'on' period. When the jet is turned 'off', all of the turbulent fluid is released instantaneously in one large eddy that convects downstream. Flow visualization and hot-film probe measurements are used together with pattern recognition algorithms to demonstrate the viability of the flow control method. The instantaneous velocity signal is used to compute important statistical quantities of the random velocity field, such as the mean, the root-mean-square, the spectral distribution, and the probability density function. When optimized for a given boundary layer, the cyclic jet produces periodic structures that are qualitatively similar to the random, naturally occurring ones. These structures seem to trigger the onset of bursting events near the wall. Thus, the present device generates periodic structures in both the outer and inner regions of a turbulent boundary layer.

Gad-El-hak, Mohamed↗

Optimum retrieval of precipitable water fields from VAS and surface data

The use of VAS radiances and conventional surface data to determine the optimum resolution and accuracy of low-level precipitable water fields retrieved from geosynchronous satellite observations is examined. VAS retrievals of precipitated water (PW) are compared with various channel selections in the regression algorithm and with the split window algorithm. The split window algorithm and the linear regression algorithm are described. Consideration is given to the sounding-field-of-view (SFOV) resolution; the data reveal that the optimum resolution for the split window algorithm is at 15-60 km resolution, and 30-60 km SFOV resolution is optimal for the regression method. Statistics and images from PW retrieval experiments conducted on July 13, 1981 are presented and utilized to determine optimum channel selection. A fast contouring method for VAS sounding images is proposed.

Chesters, Dennis↗

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗

Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

Dee, D.↗