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At least 577 records · Page 32

Magnetic observations during the recent declining phase of solar activity

Changes in the heliospheric magnetic field during the recent declining phase in solar activity are reviewed and compared with observations during past sunspot cycles. The study is based principally on data obtained by IMP-8 and Ulysses. The field magnitude is found to have increased during the declining phase until it reached a maximum value of 11.5nT in approximately 1991.5, approximately two years after sunspot maximum. The field of the sun's south pole became negative after a reversal in early 1990. The sector structure disappeared at Ulysses in April 1993 when the latitude of the spacecraft was -30 deg revealing a low inclination of the heliospheric current sheet. A large outburst of solar activity in March 1991 caused four Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and numerious shocks at the location of Ulysses. Following a delay of more than a year, a series of recurrent high speed streams and Corotating Interaction Regions commenced in July 1992 which were observed by IMP-8, Ulysses and Voyager 2. In all these respects, the behavior of the magnetic field mimics that seen in the two earlier sunspot cycles. The comprehensive data set suggests a correlation between the absolute value of B and sunspot number. The major solar cycle variations in the radial component (and magnitude) of the field have been successfully reproduced by a recent model consisting of a tilted solar dipole, whose strength and tilt undergo characteristic changes over the sunspot cycle, and the heliospheric current sheet. The large outbursts of activity in mid-1972, mid-1982 and the first quarter of 1991 may represent a characteristic last 'gasp' of solar activity before the sun evolves to a different state. The recurrent high speed streams in 1973, 1984 and 1992 accompany the developemnt of large asymetrical polar coronal holes and the growth in intensity of the polar cap fields. After they endure for about one year, the polar coronal holes recede and the high speed streams are replaced by weaker streams more characteristic of solar minimum.

Smith, E. J.↗

Global Cooperation in the Science of Space Weather

The international space science community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by SCOSTEP and the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI). The ISWI program is a continuation of the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program. These programs have brought scientists together to tackle the scientific issues behind space weather. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and ISWI activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations. capacity building. and public outreach.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

A composition comparison between comets P/Halley and P/Brorsen-Metcalf

The appearance of comet Brorsen-Metcalf in 1989 following only a few years on the heels of comet Halley in 1986 gave an unusual opportunity to compare two comets of similar orbital elements but potentially different physical and chemical characteristics. Photometric spectral data were acquired for Brorsen-Metcalf on two dates: 13 July 1989 and 2 August 1989. The observations were performed with the 154 cm Catalina Telescope of the University of Arizona Observatories. The spectrum for 13 July 1989 is compared to a Halley spectrum. The general appearance of the spectra is very similar, both comets showing emission due to C2, NH2, OI(D-1), and CN. Neither displays any emission features that are exclusive to only one of the two. Since water is now reasonably well established as the major driving force in the activity of a comet, the H2O production rate for comet Brorsen-Metcalf was calculated. The relative ratios between the production rates of the various species obtained from the data are presented. Results are summarized in tabular form. All species are compared to the H2O production rate of the two comets. The results indicate that C2 originates from an extended source of dust particles or small polymers in addition to parent molecules. The lower production rates of C2 and CN in Brorsen-Metcalf correlate well with both the lower dust production and their smaller increase as the comet approaches the sun. Even without a mode, the spectroscopic observations of Brorsen-Metcalf allowed significant compositional conclusions to be drawn. The NH2 abundance is lower by about a factor of three which appears to be independent of heliocentric distance. Both C2 and CN are less abundant in Brorsen-Metcalf than in Halley and do not seem to participate as much in the strong increase as the comet approaches the sun. The lower H2O production rate implies that the active surface area of the comet Brorsen-Metcalf is much smaller, or equivalently the comet as a whole is much smaller. The substantially lower continuum level for Brorsen-Metcalf cannot readily be explained by smaller or larger active surface area, and must be intrinsic to the comet's embedded dust-to-ice ratio, or to an overall smaller-sized dust grain population.

Disanti, Michael A.↗

Global Cooperation in the Science of Sun-Earth Connection

The international space science community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI), the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by SCOSTEP and the International Living with a Star (ILWS) program. These programs have brought scientists together to tackle the scientific issues related to short and long term variability of the Sun and the consequences in the heliosphere. The ISWI program is a continuation of the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) 2007 program in focusing on science, observatory deployment, and outreach. The IHY/ISWI observatory deployment has not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. The ISWI schools and UN workshops are the primary venues for interaction and information exchange among scientists from developing and developed countries that lead to collaborative efforts in space weather. This paper presents a summary of ISWI activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations, capacity building, and public outreach.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗

Modelling stellar activity with Gaussian process regression networks

ABSTRACT Stellar photospheric activity is known to limit the detection and characterization of extrasolar planets. In particular, the study of Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars requires data analysis methods that can accurately model the stellar activity phenomena affecting radial velocity (RV) measurements. Gaussian Process Regression Networks (GPRNs) offer a principled approach to the analysis of simultaneous time series, combining the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian Processes. Using HARPS-N solar spectroscopic observations encompassing three years, we demonstrate that this framework is capable of jointly modelling RV data and traditional stellar activity indicators. Although we consider only the simplest GPRN configuration, we are able to describe the behaviour of solar RV data at least as accurately as previously published methods. We confirm the correlation between the RV and stellar activity time series reaches a maximum at separations of a few days, and find evidence of non-stationary behaviour in the time series, associated with an approaching solar activity minimum.

Camacho, J. D. (ORCID:0000000151215560)↗

Millimeter and hard x ray/gamma ray observations of solar flares during the June 1991 GRO campaign

We have carried out high-spatial-resolution millimeter observations of solar flares using the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Array (BIMA). At the present time, BIMA consists of only three elements, which is not adequate for mapping highly variable solar phenomena, but is excellent for studies of the temporal structure of flares at millimeter wavelengths at several different spatial scales. We present BIMA observations made during the Gamma Ray Observatories (GRO)/Solar Max 1991 campaign in Jun. 1991 when solar activity was unusually high. Our observations covered the period 8-9 Jun. 1991; this period overlapped the period 4-15 Jun. when the Compton Telescope made the Sun a target of opportunity because of the high level of solar activity.

Kundu, M. R.↗

Analysis of a possible sun-weather correlation

In an attempt to verify the relationship between solar activity and precipitation posited by Xanthakis (1973), annual precipitation records from 2,548 stations in both hemispheres from the period 1850 to 1973 were examined. The strong negative correlation between solar activity and rainfall in the 60 to 70 deg N latitude belt found by Xanthakis appeared much less distinct in the present study. In addition, a spectral analysis indicated no significant spectral peaks having periods between 6 and 20 years, a finding which cast further doubt on the solar cycle-precipitation correlation.

Gerety, E. J.↗

Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Solar Activity Cycles

Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because the physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce, and the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly surface layers. Helioseismology makes it possible to probe solar dynamics in the convective zone, but variations in the differential rotation and meridional circulation are currently available for only two solar activity cycles. It has been demonstrated that sunspot observations, which cover over 400 years, can be used to calibrate the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin model and that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method can be used to link the model magnetic fields to sunspot observations to make reliable predictions of a following cycle. However, for more accurate predictions, it is necessary to use actual observations of the solar magnetic fields, which are available for only four solar cycles. This raises the question of how limitations in observational data and model uncertainties affect predictive capabilities and implies the need for the development of new forecast methodologies and validation criteria. In this presentation, I will discuss the influence of the limited number of available observations on the accuracy of EnKF estimates of solar cycle parameters.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

The latitude dependencies of the solar wind

The motion of spacecraft following the earth's orbit occurs within the solar latitude range of 7 deg 15 min N on approximately September 7 to 7 deg 15 min S on approximately March 6. The latitude dependencies so far detected within this range have shown that the photospheric dipole-like field of the sun makes very important contributions to the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observed near the ecliptic. Changes in geomagnetic activity from even to odd numbered 11-year solar cycles are related to changes in the sun's dipolar field. The north-south IMF component and meridional, nonradial flow are important to a complete understanding of steady-state solar wind dynamics. Coronal conditions must be latitude-dependent in a way that accounts for the observed latitude dependence of the velocity and density of the solar wind.

Rosenberg, R. L.↗

Recurrent Activity from Active Asteroid (248370) 2005 QN 173 : A Main-belt Comet

We present archival observations of main-belt asteroid (248370) 2005 QN 173 (also designated 433P) that demonstrate this recently discovered active asteroid (a body with a dynamically asteroidal orbit displaying a tail or coma) has had at least one additional apparition of activity near perihelion during a prior orbit. We discovered evidence of this second activity epoch in an image captured 2016 July 22 with the DECam on the 4 m Blanco telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile. As of this writing, (248370) 2005 QN 173 is just the eighth active asteroid demonstrated to undergo recurrent activity near perihelion. Our analyses demonstrate (248370) 2005 QN 173 is likely a member of the active asteroid subset known as main-belt comets, a group of objects that orbit in the main asteroid belt that exhibit activity that is specifically driven by sublimation. We implement an activity detection technique, wedge photometry, that has the potential to detect tails in images of solar system objects and quantify their agreement with computed antisolar and antimotion vectors normally associated with observed tail directions. We present a catalog and an image gallery of archival observations. The object will soon become unobservable as it passes behind the Sun as seen from Earth, and when it again becomes visible (late 2022) it will be farther than 3 au from the Sun. Our findings suggest (248370) 2005 QN 173 is most active interior to 2.7 au (0.3 au from perihelion), so we encourage the community to observe and study this special object before 2021 December.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical characteristics of bursty bulk flow events

Using a common methodology to analyze data from the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorer/Ion Release Module (AMPTE/IRM) and International Sun-Earth Explorer 2 (ISEE 2) satellites we report on the statistical properties of bursty bulk flow events (BBFs) in the inner plasma sheet (IPS). A positive correlation between BBFs and the AE index suggests that BBFs are predominantly geomagnetically active time phenomena. Earthward BBFs are more frequent close to midnight and away from Earth, up to a distance of approximately 19 R(sub E). Tailward BBFs are very infrequent in the IRM data set and somewhat less infrequent in the ISEE 2 data set in the region of the satellites' spatial overlap, possibly due to the more active conditions prevailing during the ISEE 2 mission in that region. However, in both data sets the ratio of tailward to earthward BBFs increases with distance from Earth; more than 20% of all BBFs are anti-sunward tailward of X = -19 R(sub E) in the ISEE 2 data set. BBFs are responsible for 60-100% of the measured earthward transport of mass, energy and magnetic flux past the satellite in the regions of maximum occurrence rate, even though they last approximately 10-15% of the IPS observation time there. Thus BBFs represent the primary transport mechanism at those regions. The one-to-one correspondence between BBFs and substorm phase, as well as the relative contribution of BBFs to the total transport observed during substorms are questions that await further investigation based on multi instrument studies of individual events.

Angelopoulos, V.↗

Measurements of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow with seven years of IceCube data: Comparison with the Solar cycle and magnetic field models

Observations of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow have been proven as a valuable diagnostic for the assessment of solar magnetic field models. Here, seven years of IceCube data are compared to solar activity and solar magnetic field models. A quantitative comparison of solar magnetic field models with IceCube data on the event rate level is performed for the first time. Additionally, a first energy-dependent analysis is presented and compared to recent predictions. We use seven years of IceCube data for the moon and the Sun and compare them to simulations on data rate level. The simulations are performed for the geometrical shadow hypothesis for the moon and the Sun and for a cosmic-ray propagation model governed by the solar magnetic field for the case of the Sun. We find that a linearly decreasing relationship between Sun shadow strength and solar activity is preferred over a constant relationship at the 6.4σ level. We test two commonly used models of the coronal magnetic field, both combined with a Parker spiral, by modeling cosmic-ray propagation in the solar magnetic field. Both models predict a weakening of the shadow in times of high solar activity as it is also visible in the data. We find tensions with the data on the order of 3σ for both models, assuming only statistical uncertainties. The magnetic field model CSSS fits the data slightly better than the PFSS model. This is generally consistent with what is found previously by the Tibet AS-γ Experiment; a deviation of the data from the two models is, however, not significant at this point. Regarding the energy dependence of the Sun shadow, we find indications that the shadowing effect increases with energy during times of high solar activity, in agreement with theoretical predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Atmospheric Dust Modeling from Meso to Global Scales with the Online NMMB/BSC-Dust Model Part 2: Experimental Campaigns in Northern Africa

The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Perez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6-0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodele Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced. The remaining negative AOD bias (due to underestimated surface wind speeds) can be substantially reduced by decreasing the threshold friction velocity in the model.

photometers↗

Effects of the Observed Meridional Flow Variations since 1996 on the Sun's Polar Fields

The cause of the low and extended minimum in solar activity between Sunspot Cycles 23 and 24 was the small size of Sunspot Cycle 24 itself - small cycles start late and leave behind low minima. Cycle 24 is small because the polar fields produced during Cycle 23 were substantially weaker than those produced during the previous cycles and those (weak) polar fields are the seeds for the activity of the following cycle. The polar fields are produced by the latitudinal transport of magnetic flux that emerged in low-latitude active regions. The polar fields thus depend upon the details of both the flux emergence and the flux transport. We have measured the flux transport flows (differential rotation, meridional flow, and supergranules) since 1996 and find systematic and substantial variation in the meridional flow alone. Here we present experiments using a Surface Flux Transport Model in which magnetic field data from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI are assimilated into the model only at latitudes between 45-degrees north and south of the equator (this assures that the details of the active region flux emergence are well represented). This flux is then transported in both longitude and latitude by the observed flows. In one experiment the meridional flow is given by the time averaged (and north-south symmetric) meridional flow profile. In the second experiment the time-varying and north-south asymmetric meridional flow is used. Differences between the observed polar fields and those produced in these two experiments allow us to ascertain the effects of these meridional flow variations on the Sun s polar fields.

Hathaway, David↗