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NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
NASA NTRS2010

Thermal Analysis of the Advanced Technology Large Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) 8 Meter Primary Mirror

The Advanced Technology Large Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) preliminary design concept consists of an 8 meter diameter monolithic primary mirror enclosed in an insulated, optical tube with stray light baffles and a sunshade. ATLAST will be placed in orbit about the Sun-Earth L2 and will experience constant exposure to the sun. The insulation on the optical tube and sunshade serve to cold bias the telescope which helps to minimize thermal gradients. The primary mirror will be maintained at 280K with an active thermal control system. The geometric model of the primary mirror, optical tube, sun baffles, and sunshade was developed using Thermal Desktop(R) SINDA/FLUINT(R) was used for the thermal analysis and the radiation environment was analyzed using RADCAD(R). A XX node model was executed in order to characterize the static performance and thermal stability of the mirror during maneuvers. This is important because long exposure observations, such as extra-solar terrestrial planet finding and characterization, require a very stable observatory wave front. Steady state thermal analyses served to predict mirror temperatures for several different sun angles. Transient analyses were performed in order to predict thermal time constant of the primary mirror for a 20 degree slew or 30 degree roll maneuver. This paper describes the thermal model and provides details of the geometry, thermo-optical properties, and the environment which influences the thermal performance. All assumptions that were used in the analysis are also documented. Parametric analyses are summarized for design parameters including primary mirror coatings and sunshade configuration. Estimates of mirror heater power requirements are reported. The thermal model demonstrates results for the primary mirror heated from the back side and edges using a heater system with multiple independently controlled zones.

Hornsby, Linda↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS1994

Vital phase of space science

Space science began with the indirect phase where the activity in space was inferred from such terrestrial phenomena as geomagnetic storms, ionospheric variations, and fluctuations in the cosmic ray intensity. The direct phase was initiated with spaceflight placing instruments directly in space and permitting the direct observation of UV and X rays, as well as precision observations of solar luminosity variations. The evidence from these many direct studies, together with the historical record of terrestrial conditions, shows that the variations of the luminosity of the Sun affect the terrestrial atmosphere at all levels, with devastating changes in climate tracking the major changes in the activity level and luminosity of the Sun. The quantification and understanding of this vital connection should be the first priority of space science and geophysics, from oceans and atmosphere through the ionosphere, magnetosphere, and all the way to the convective zone of the Sun. It becomes the vital phase of space science, focused on the basic science of the changing habitability of Earth.

Parker, E. N.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Modeling the data systems role of the scientist (for the NEEDS Command and Control Task)

Research was conducted into the command and control activities of the scientists for five space missions: International Ultraviolet Explorer, Solar Maximum Mission, International Sun-Earth Explorer, High-Energy Astronomy Observatory 1, and Atmospheric Explorer 5. A basis for developing a generalized description of the scientists' activities was obtained. Because of this characteristic, it was decided that a series of flowcharts would be used. This set of flowcharts constitutes a model of the scientists' activities within the total data system. The model was developed through three levels of detail. The first is general and provides a conceptual framework for discussing the system. The second identifies major functions and should provide a fundamental understanding of the scientists' command and control activities. The third level expands the major functions into a more detailed description.

Hei, D. J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The onset of chromospheric activity among the A- and F- type stars

IUE observations of C II lambda1335 and C IV lambda1549 and ground-based observations of He I lambda5876 have previously discovered intense levels of chromospheric activity among early F type stars. Virtually all F dwarfs show stronger chromospheric and transition region emission than do the cooler and more deeply convective dwarf stars like the Sun. The IUE spectra and those of He lambda5876 place the onset of stellar activity along the main sequence near a color B - V = 0.28, which corresponds approximately to spectral type FO and an effective temperature of 7300 K. However, existing X-ray observations of A and F stars suggest that coronal activity may reach a peak blueward of this high temperature boundary at B - V = 0.28 before vanishing among the early and mid A-type stars. Discussed are preliminary results of a new effort to refine the location of the high temperature boundary to chromospheric activity among A- and F- type stars, making use of low dispersion short-wavelength spectra from the IUE archives from which the strengths of C IV, C II, and Lyman alpha emission have been measured.

Simon, Theodore↗
NASA NTRS1979

The birthplaces of active regions and X-ray bright points

A comparison of soft X-ray pictures of the Sun (S-054 experiment of Skylab) with K-line spectroheliograms (Mount Wilson) shows that the X-ray bright points tend to emerge randomly throughout the Ca network pattern. However, all those bright points that developed into active regions emerged at the boundaries of network cells. This suggests that the magnetic flux of active regions comes from greater depths in the convection zone that the shallow flux that gives rise to the random emergence of bright points.

Howard, R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Interplanetary planar magnetic structures associated with expanding active regions

Planar magnetic structures are interplanetary objects whose magnetic field cannot be explained by Parker's solar wind model. They are characterized by two-dimensional structure of magnetic field that are highly variable and parallel to a plane which is inclined to the ecliptic plane. They appeared independently of interplanetary compression, solar flares, active prominences nor filament disappearances, but the sources often coincided with active regions. On the other hand, it has been discovered by the Yohkoh Soft X-ray telescope that active-region corona expand outwards at speeds of a few to a few tens of km/s near the Sun. The expansions occurred repeatedly, almost continually, even in the absence of any sizable flares. In the Yohkoh Soft X-ray images, the active-region corona seems to expand out into interplanetary space. Solar sources of interplanetary planar magnetic structures observed by Sakigake were examined by Yohkoh soft X-ray telescope. During a quiet period of the Sun from January 6 to November 11, 1993, there found 5 planar magnetic structures according to the criteria (absolute value of Bn)/(absolute value of B) less than 0.1 for planarity and (dB)/(absolute value of B) greater than 0.7 for variability of magnetic field, where Bn, dB, and the absolute value of B are field component normal to a plane, standard deviation, and average of the magnitude of the magnetic field, respectively. Sources of 4 events were on low-latitude (less than 5 degrees) active regions from which loop-like structures were expanding. The coincidence, 80%, is extremely high with respect to accidental coincidence, 7%, of Sakigake windows of solar wind observation with active regions. The last source was on loop-like features which seemed to be related with a mid-latitude (20 degrees) active region.

Nakagawa, Tomoko↗
NASA NTRS1980

The collective excitation of g-modes in the sun

Oscillations of the solar interior (linear g-modes) may be strongly driven by the collective influence of all the modes upon the nuclear reactions in the core. This heretofore neglected effect could couple the modes, reduce the effective amplitudes near the center, and spatially concentrate most of the oscillation energy into just a portion of the radiative interior. If operating at sufficient strength, this can reverse the conventional conclusion, drawn from single mode calculations, that almost all solar g-modes are damped. Furthermore, it would put the theory into rough harmony with three otherwise troubling observations: (1) the 'low' neutrino flux measured by Davis (1978), (2) the high correspondence found by Wolff (1976) between recurrence periods in solar activity and the rotational beat periods of g-modes, and (3) the fluctuations in the sun's diameter which imply g-mode activity at high angular harmonics (Hill and Caudell 1979). A nonlinear expression is derived for the local rate of work done on an array of oscillation modes by the nuclear reactions. Three additional tests of the model are suggested.

Wolff, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The magnetic activity of sunlike stars

The solar magnetic field, when carried into interplanetary space by the solar wind, creates changes in the earth's magnetosphere and variations in the galactic cosmic ray particle flux incident on the earth's upper atmosphere. Observational data accumulated over several centuries have indicated that the solar magnetism exists and varies in a globally organized pattern that is coupled to the sun's rotation. Wilson (1966, 1981) has demonstrated that analogs of solar activity exist and can be studied in many other dwarf stars, so that knowledge of the precise rates of rotation of stars under investigation can increase understanding of the origins of solar activity in particular and stellar activity in general.

Vaughan, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Solar Irradiance Variations on Active Region Time Scales

The variations of the total solar irradiance is an important tool for studying the Sun, thanks to the development of very precise sensors such as the ACRIM instrument on board the Solar Maximum Mission. The largest variations of the total irradiance occur on time scales of a few days are caused by solar active regions, especially sunspots. Efforts were made to describe the active region effects on total and spectral irradiance.

Labonte, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Why does the sun sometimes look like a magnetic monopole.

For three or four consecutive months in 1965 observations of the sun's magnetic field showed that it was predominantly directed out of the sun at all solar latitudes. This interval in the first part of 1965 is near the minimum of the sunspot cycle. Solar activity has been strongly associated with large-scale solar regions with field directed predominantly into the sun, while the observations noted seem to show that just near solar maximum there is almost no field observed to be directed into the sun. An attempt is made to describe and develop these interesting circumstances.

Wilcox, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar Activity and the Sea-surface Temperature Record-evidence of a Long-period Variation in Solar Total Irradiance

There have been many suggestions over the years of a connection between solar activity and the Earth's climate on time scales long compared to the 11-year sunspot cycle. They have remained little more than suggestions largely because of the major uncertainties in the climate record itself, and the difficulty in trying to compile a global average from an assembly of measurements that are uneven in both quality and distribution. Different climate time response to solar activity, some suggesting a positive correlation, some a negative correlation, and some no correlation at all. The only excuse for making yet another such suggestion is that much effort has been devoted in recent years to compiling climate records for the past century or more that are internally consistent and believable, and that a decadal-scale record of solar total irradiance is emerging from spacecraft measurements, and can be used to set limits on the variation that is likely to have occurred on these time scales. The work described here was originally inspired by the observation that the time series of globally averaged sea-surface temperatures over the past 120 years or so, as compiled by the British Meteorological Office group (Folland and Kates, 1984), bore a resonable similarity to the long-term average sunspot number, which is an indicator of the secular variability of solar activity. The two time series are shown where the sunspot number is shown as the 135-month running mean, and the SST variation is shown as the departure from an arbitrary average value. The simplest explanation of the similarity, if one accepts it as other than coincidental, is that the sun's luminosity may have been varying more or less in step with the level of solar activity, or in other words that there is a close coupling between the sun's magnetic condition and its radiative output on time scales longer than the 11-year cycle. Such an idea is not new, and in fact the time series shown can be regarded as a modern extension of the proposal put forward by Eddy (1977) to explain the covariance between various global climate indicators and solar activity as revealed by the C-14 record over the past millenium.

Reid, George C.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The First Multiple Layer Doppler Imaging of an Active Binary

Preliminary results were presented at the Cool Stars, Stellar Systems, and the Sun in Cambridge, MA in July 1997. A copy of the two published papers (in press) is attached. The project has met or exceeded our expectations. The rapid readout data have given us an excellent data set to model in detail the flare behavior. The large number of spectral features observed between the EUVE and HST data have allowed us to compute a mean model atmosphere and compare the results to another well studied system (HR 1099 - Cycle 3 HST observation previously published). I developed a model (anisotropic macroturbulence) that fits the CIV and MgII better than previously achieved. These results have been constrained by the EUVE data. In early studies, 2 gaussians were applied to the profile. The interpretation of these features was unclear. The anisotropic macroturbulence model fits the data better than previously possible and gives a physically reasonable interpretation: there appears to be an asymmetrical distribution between the radial and tangential velocity fields. This is similar to case of the Sun.

Dempsey, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Fire Under Fire: Proton Probabilities at Perihelion

This paper computes the probabilities that the near-Sun flyby mission, Fire, might be bombarded by high energy protons from solar-activity related proton acceleration lying beneath Fire's perihelion altitude of three solar radii.

Fire near-Sun flyby mission high energy protons↗
NASA NTRS1992

Atmospheric detectives: Atlas 2 teacher's guide with activities. For use with middle-school students

Can you imagine doing a science project in space? This is the challenging and exciting situation that researchers experience in Spacelab, the laboratory carried inside the Shuttle. Here, hundreds of kilometers above Earth's surface, the crews of the ATLAS missions scan, probe, and measure concentrations of chemicals and water vapor in Earth's protective bubble. So far, one ATLAS crew has rocketed into the atmosphere, watching many sunrises and sunsets come and go while activating delicate instruments and conducting experiments that monitor the complicated interactions between the Sun, the atmosphere, and Earth. We, the crew of ATLAS 2, will continue this important work aboard the Space Shuttle. Together, we will gather data that will be compared with information from satellites, balloons, and instruments on the ground. As part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) contribution to Mission to Planet Earth, ATLAS 2 will help develop a thorough picture of the Sun's output, its interaction with the atmosphere, and the well-being of Earth's middle atmosphere. Because the health of the atmosphere is of vital importance to all Earth's inhabitants, everyone should be part of this investigation. You can be active participants in exciting and vital activities: recycling and practicing other conservation methods and gathering information to learn more about how you can keep our atmosphere healthy now, as students, and in the future as informed citizens, scientists, technicians, and mathematicians.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1974

Differential rotation of solar filaments

The latitudinal component of solar differential rotation and the possibility of a radial component are discussed and compared to the observed rotational velocities of solar filaments. The author's values of rotational rate versus heliographic latitude for 100 points in the solar atmosphere derived from 17 quiescent filaments are shown to be comparable to the rates found by d'Azambuja and d'Azambuja (1948). The filament rate is significantly greater than the spot rate (Newton and Nunn, 1951); the difference cannot be accounted for by the poleward migration of filaments and seems to reflect a true radial gradient of rotational velocity in the sun. It is shown that filaments in closer proximity to active regions usually exhibit no differential rotation, while those far from active regions generally show it clearly. Comparison with Mt. Wilson photospheric Doppler measurements shows that filaments rotate faster than the general photosphere and that the spot rate exceeds that for the general photosphere.

Glackin, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Bursts of relativistic electrons from Jupiter observed in interplanetary space with the time variation of the planetary rotation period

Bursts of Jovian electrons in the energy range 3 to 30 Mev have been detected to distances of the order of 1 AU from the planet. The duration of each burst was about two to three days, and the maximum intensity increased with increasing distance from the sun. These events could not be correlated with known solar activity. The conclusion that these electrons originated at Jupiter and were accelerated within the Jovian magnetosphere is based on observations of three of these bursts. The power spectrum of the temporal variations of the 6- to 30-MeV electron flux showed a persistent peak at Jupiter's rotation frequency (corresponding to the ten hour rotation period) out to distances greater than 100,000,000 km from the planet. The slope, or spectral index, of the differential energy spectrum measured as a function of time displayed the ten-hour cyclic variation in the value of the index, which was earlier found to be characteristic of the electrons within the Jovian magnetosphere.

Chenette, D. L.↗