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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determining Optimal Asset Location for Rapid and Efficient Wildfire Suppression: A Simulation-Based Approach

The impact of wildfire incidents has been growing in recent years, posing a serious threat to communities at the urban-wildland interface. To address this problem, there have been growing calls to use UAVs to increase the capacity of responsible agencies to quickly and effectively suppress fires and to reduce risks associated with firefighting. One of the opportunities associated with UAVs is the ability to rapidly and autonomously operate from limited-access air bases where fires are expected to burn. This study provides an approach to determine where these air bases should be placed in order to most rapidly extinguish fires, given provided fuel distributions. This approach uses an integrated simulation of fire propagation and UAV-based suppression actions to determine how much of a given environment was burned over a range of scenarios. It then uses an optimization method to explore the space and determine the location with the least burned area. Results show the approach to efficiently and effectively provide optimal bases for single-base placements over a range of scenarios, though future work is required to adequately calibrate the model and study how it can be used in multiple-base placement problems.

Daniel Hulse↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determining Optimal Asset Location for Rapid and Efficient Wildfire Suppression: A Simulation-Based Approach

The impact of wildfire incidents has been growing in recent years, posing a serious threat to communities at the urban-wildland interface. To address this problem, there have been growing calls to use UAVs to increase the capacity of responsible agencies to quickly and effectively suppress fires and to reduce risks associated with firefighting. One of the opportunities associated with UAVs is the ability to rapidly and autonomously operate from limited-access air bases where fires are expected to burn. This study provides an approach to determine where these air bases should be placed in order to most rapidly extinguish fires, given provided fuel distributions. This approach uses an integrated simulation of fire propagation and UAV-based suppression actions to determine how much of a given environment was burned over a range of scenarios. It then uses an optimization method to explore the space and determine the location with the least burned area. Results show the approach to efficiently and effectively provide optimal bases for single-base placements over a range of scenarios, though future work is required to adequately calibrate the model and study how it can be used in multiple-base placement problems.

Daniel Hulse↗
NASA NTRS2005

Automated Wildfire Detection Through Artificial Neural Networks

Wildfires have a profound impact upon the biosphere and our society in general. They cause loss of life, destruction of personal property and natural resources and alter the chemistry of the atmosphere. In response to the concern over the consequences of wildland fire and to support the fire management community, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS) located in Camp Springs, Maryland gradually developed an operational system to routinely monitor wildland fire by satellite observations. The Hazard Mapping System, as it is known today, allows a team of trained fire analysts to examine and integrate, on a daily basis, remote sensing data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite sensors and generate a 24 hour fire product for the conterminous United States. Although assisted by automated fire detection algorithms, N O M has not been able to eliminate the human element from their fire detection procedures. As a consequence, the manually intensive effort has prevented NOAA from transitioning to a global fire product as urged particularly by climate modelers. NASA at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland is helping N O M more fully automate the Hazard Mapping System by training neural networks to mimic the decision-making process of the frre analyst team as well as the automated algorithms.

Miller, Jerry↗
NASA NTRS2008

A View of Earth's Aerosol System from Space to Your Office Chair

Aerosols are tiny particles and droplets suspended in the air. Each day you breathe in about 10 billion of them, about a half a million per breath. They are formed in nature by volcanoes, dust storms, sea spray, and emissions from vegetation. Humans create aerosols and alter their natural sources by burning fossil fuels and modifying land cover. Fires are another important source of aerosols; some are natural, such as wildfires started by lightning strikes, while others are from human-caused burning of vegetation for cooking, heating, and land clearing. Aerosols have complex effects on Earth's climate. In general, they cool the surface by reflecting (scattering) radiation from the sun back into space. Dust and smoke absorb solar radiation and heat the atmosphere where they are concentrated. Aerosols change the properties of clouds. Indeed, it would be very difficult to form clouds in the atmosphere without aerosols to act as 'seeds' for water to condense on. In aerosol polluted environments clouds tend to have smaller droplets than clouds formed in cleaner environments; these polluted clouds appear brighter from space because they reflect more sunlight, and they may persist longer and not rain as intensely. Aerosols also affect local air quality and visibility. Data collected by NASA satellites over the past decade have provided an unprecedented view of Earth's aerosol distribution and dramatically increased our understanding of where aerosols come from and just how far they travel in the atmosphere. In this talk I will discuss observations of aerosols from space and how they inform numerical transport models attempting to simulate the global aerosol system.

Colarco, Peter↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Openet: Applications of Satellite-Based Evapotranspiration Data for Water Resources Management in the Western United States

Advancing water security in overallocated river basins globally requires consistent and reproducible information on consumptive use of water that can anchor the development of data-driven solutions to the challenge of balancing water supply and demand. OpenET is a fully automated system for field-scale (30 m), satellite-based mapping of evapotranspiration (ET) at daily, monthly and annual timesteps. OpenET currently provides spatially contiguous data throughout the 23 westernmost states in the continental US, and includes both current information as well as multi-year timeseries of ET. The OpenET consortium has implemented an ensemble of satellite-based ET models (ALEXI/DisALEXI, eeMETRIC, PT-JPL, geeSEBAL, SIMS and SSEBop) on Google Earth Engine, which provides a shared computing platform for collaboration on processing of data from Landsat and other satellites, land cover and meteorological inputs, leading to increased consistency and accuracy across the ensemble of models. Earth Engine also facilitates hosting and distribution of data via open data collections and an application programming interface. We provide updates on the OpenET framework, open data services and data access tools, approach to geographic expansion, recent accuracy assessments, and describe how a user-driven design approach has facilitated successful applications of OpenET data for a wide range of water resource management activities. Applications to date include: use of ET data to improve quantification of ET and consumptive use in Oregon, Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin; streamlining of water use reporting requirements in the California Delta; support for calculation of water budgets for the implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in California; and integration into decision support tools for irrigation management. The use cases demonstrate how satellite-derived ET data that are easily accessed and seen as broadly accepted can accelerate adoption of innovative water management practices at scale, and support advances in the sustainability of water supplies. Uptake and use of data by the OpenET science community has also led to advances in our understanding of the impacts of landcover change, irrigation intensification and wildfire events on hydrology and the water security.

Applications↗
NASA NTRS2023

Coronado Ecological Conservation: Assessing Vegetation Change Due to Border Wall Construction and Shifting Social Trails

Species monitoring is essential for mitigating the impacts of plant invasion, such as radical changes in an area’s ecosystem, degraded soil health, increased wildfire severity, landslides, and increased flooding. For this project, NASA DEVELOP partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) to investigate invasive species in disturbed lands: specifically, areas affected by off-trail travel and U.S.-Mexico border construction activities. The team assessed how construction has impacted the distribution of Lehmann’s lovegrass and Russian thistle invasives throughout Coronado National Memorial, AZ from 1986-2022. Using data from Landsat 5 and 8, Sentinel-2, NAIP, and PlanetScope, the team computed NDVI, NDMI, MSAVI2, EVI, and Tasseled Cap Wetness, Brightness, and Greenness transformations as vegetation health indicators to input into various machine learning algorithms. To minimize noise, the team conducted Principal Component Analysis on vegetation indices and spectral bands before running k-means clustering and random forest classification algorithms. Between all datasets, the team found that the median area fully overtaken by invasive plants was 5.37% of the park’s total area in 2022. The NPS will use end products to help increase restoration efforts in disturbed areas with high concentrations of invasive plants, and this project can serve as a jumping off point for future invasive species monitoring. The NPS’s collection of ground data for 2022-2023, in conjunction with future data collection, will notably improve the accuracy of classification models, leading to more precise monitoring of invasive species spread over time.

Coronado National Memorial↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing a microwave-driven reactor for ammonia synthesis: insights into the unique challenges of microwave catalysis

Rapid development of new ammonia (NH 3 ) synthesis techniques that enable modular, intermittent production is essential to actualizing NH 3 's potential as a clean energy carrier, since contemporary methods are configured to centralized, continuous production methods with high emissions and are incompatible with renewable sources. Here, in this mission, microwave-driven catalysis is promising for its ability to enhance reaction kinetics and apply targeted heating for efficient energy use. However, owing to an incomplete understanding of the interaction between microwave fields and catalyst beds, the development of such microwave-catalysis systems remains underexplored and challenging. This paper investigates the 10× scale-up of a microwave-based NH 3 synthesis reactor using numerical and experimental approaches, achieving the largest reported microwave-driven NH 3 reactor to date. Results elucidate phenomena unique to microwave processes that are only predictable through numerical modeling, including how a catalyst's dielectric properties influence microwave field distribution by affecting penetration depth and how energy utilization can be poor even with sufficient attenuation. These dynamics change with scale, constrain reactor geometry, and potentially hamper performance. Nonetheless, we demonstrate a production rate of 56.6 g NH$_3$ per day, the highest reported NH 3 synthesis rate for laboratory-scale alternative techniques; correspondingly, the benchmark energy efficiency achieved in this paper (45.6 g NH$_3$ kW h -1 ) is the highest reported for such reactors of sufficient scale. Even with this exemplary energy efficiency, energy losses were found in excess of 50%, an issue resolvable through scale and reactor design. The efficiencies imparted by microwaves were key in these achievements, warranting further investigation toward development of microwave-driven NH 3 systems.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ecological Insights from Transferable Plant Biomass Mapping across the Arctic using High-resolution Structure-from-Motion and LiDAR Data

Warmer temperatures, permafrost thaw, and increased wildfire activity are driving rapid ecological change across the Arctic, significantly altering plant productivity and aboveground biomass (AGB). These rapid changes highlight the urgent need to improve monitoring of vegetation dynamics in the Earth’s northern ecosystems, where high spatiotemporal heterogeneity occurs at scales finer than those captured by traditional satellite observations. The growing use of Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UASs) presents an opportunity to overcome this limitation. Yet, the diversity of UAS platforms, sensors, and data collection and processing workflows presents challenges for developing standardized, generalizable approaches. To address this challenge, we compiled 672 AGB plots co-located with 183 UAS-based Structure-from-Motion (SfM) or Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys collected across the Arctic. Here, we: (1) evaluated the generalizability of UAS-derived canopy structure derived from high-resolution SfM and LiDAR for estimating AGB, (2) assessed scaling errors and their sources in two recent satellite-based AGB products derived from Landsat and MODIS, and (3) demonstrated the use of high-resolution AGB maps to quantify biomass variation across tundra plant functional types (PFTs) and to monitor post-fire recovery. Our results show that both SfM and LiDAR accurately captured AGB and its variability across tundra PFTs using a Random Forest (RF) model (overall RMSE: 0.336 kg/m2), with mapping performance varying slightly by region and data source. Using UAS-derived AGB maps as a benchmark, we identified systematic biases in satellite-derived AGB products, largely attributable to the magnitude of AGB and structural heterogeneity within coarse-resolution pixels. Applying our model to repeat UAS surveys following a tundra fire on Seward Peninsula, we observed rapid AGB recovery in non-shrub patches, with biomass recovering to pre-fire levels within 2 years. In contrast, shrub patches recovered more slowly, with AGB gains continuing over 2–4 years through both in-patch growth and lateral expansion (via dispersal) into remaining burned areas. Overall, these findings demonstrate the generalizability of UAS-based SfM and LiDAR data for estimating tundra AGB and highlight the potential of our approach to be broadly applied to generate high-quality AGB data for ecological monitoring and model benchmarking across the Arctic.

Yang, Daryl [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000317057823)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Satellite-based Investigation of Power-Line Vegetation Encroachment in the US (SILVANUS)

Rapid wide-area assessments of vegetation encroachment on transmission and distribution line rights-of-way (ROW) is a highly desirable capability for understanding risks to the power grid during severe weather and wildfire events. Conventional assessments are time-consuming and expensive due to the need for in-situ inspections and the use of aerial assets. Performing conventional assessments on a wide area would require immense resources and time that might not be available within the horizon of an expected adverse event. Developing a capability to accurately assess vegetation encroachment into ROWs will enable faster analysis of potential grid vulnerabilities in NAERM. This project sought to develop a prototype capability for rapid ROW vegetation encroachment assessments by using Puerto Rico as a test case. Puerto Rico is a heavily forested island territory frequently impacted by tropical cyclones that threaten the electric grid by downing trees across transmission and distribution lines. Multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) enable very high resolution (i.e., 0.5 - 2 meter) assessment of vegetation conditions at scale and with revisit times appropriate for regular monitoring (e.g., weekly to quarterly, depending on cloud cover) of the entire island. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from satellites was also investigated as solution to the cloud-cover issue as they are active sensors that emit and receive a microwave signal rather than relying on solar illumination, and are therefore unaffected by cloud cover and can collect data during day or night. Finally, MSI-derived digital surface models (DSMs) map the height of objects relative to sea level, and were assessed for their ability to estimate the height of forest canopies relative to coincident transmission lines. The results of the mapping investigation are described in this report.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Forecasting/Assimilation/Emissions Estimation with WRF-Chem/DART: Accomplishments, Lessons Learned, and Future Plans

Over the past ten years, we have been conducting research on regional ensemble atmospheric composition forecasting/data assimilation/emissions estimation with WRF-Chem/DART. WRF- Chem/DART integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with online chemistry (WRF-Chem) into the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). DART is an ensemble data assimilation system based on the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) with adaptive inflation, localization (physical and state space), and an optional non-Gaussian formulation of the EAKF. DART includes assimilation of meteorological and limited chemical observations. WRF-Chem/DART extends DART to include assimilation of: MOPITT CO; IASI CO and O3; MODIS AOD; OMI O3, NO2, and SO2; TROPOMI CO, O3, NO2, and SO2, TES CO, CO2 (research mode), O3, NH3, and CH4 (research mode); CrIS CO, O3, NH3, CH4 (research mode), and PAN; SCIAMACHY NO2; GOME2a NO2; MLS O3 and HNO3; and proxy TEMPO O3, and NO2 satellite retrievals as raw retrievals or as ‘compact phase space retrievals’ (CPSRs) for profile retrievals. WRF-Chem/DART also assimilates in situ atmospheric composition measurements and uses the ‘state augmentation method’ for emissions estimation. In our presentation, we will provide an overview of WRF-Chem/DART: • applications and results; • lessons learned from: (i) independent versus joint assimilation; (ii) total/partial column versus profile retrieval assimilation; (iii) joint in situ and retrieval assimilation; (iv) assimilation at grid resolutions ranging from 100 km to 4 km; (v) dynamic emissions estimation; and • future work related to wildfire emissions estimation and intercomparison of CMAQ (online)/JEDI and CMAQ (online and offline)/DART.

WRF-Chem/DART↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coronado Ecological Conservation: Assessing Vegetation Change Due to Border Wall Construction and Shifting Social Trails

Species monitoring is essential in mitigating the impacts of plant invasion, such as radical changes in an area’s ecosystem, degraded soil health, increased wildfire severity, landslides, and increased flooding. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) to investigate invasive species in disturbed lands: specifically, areas affected by off-trail walking and US-Mexico border construction activities. The team assessed how construction has impacted the distribution of Lehmann’s lovegrass and Russian thistle invasives throughout Coronado National Memorial, AZ from 1986 to 2022. Using data from Landsat 5 and 8, Sentinel-2, the National Agriculture Imagery Program, and PlanetScope, the team computed vegetation indices including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Moisture Index, Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 2, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and Tasseled Cap Wetness, Brightness, and Greenness transformations as vegetation health indicators to input into various machine learning algorithms. To minimize noise, the team conducted Principal Component Analysis on the vegetation indices and spectral bands before running k-means++ clustering and random forest classification algorithms. Between all datasets, we found the median area fully overtaken by invasive plants was 5.37% of the park’s total area in 2022. The NPS will use the end products to help increase restoration efforts in disturbed areas with high concentrations of invasive plants. The NPS’s collection of ground data for 2022–2023, in conjunction with future data collection, will notably improve the accuracy of classification models, leading to more precise monitoring of invasive spread over time.

Carson Schuetze↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Real-time Global Assessment of Post-fire Debris Flow Hazard

As the risk of wildfires increases worldwide, burned steeplands are vulnerable to the secondary hazard of widespread sediment mobilization through debris flows. Following an initial burn, sediment and soil previously restrained by vegetation are no longer consolidated, allowing for easy mobilization into channels and along steep hillslopes through runoff. Sufficiently powerful rainfall incorporates entrained material into turbulent flows and serves as the primary trigger for debris flow initiation. There is thus an ongoing need to establish the relationship between rainfall and debris flow initiation based on a variety of spatiotemporal preconditions. Previous work establishes regional and local thresholds to constrain the effect of rainfall in recently burned areas, but no empirical or numerical solution has worldwide application. Building from regionally-based efforts in the U.S., this work considers how remote sensing data can be applied to better approximate the post-fire debris flow hazards worldwide using freely available global datasets and software. Our work assesses the utility of remote sensing resources for analyzing burn characteristics, topography, rainfall intensity/duration, and, thus, debris flow initiation. Early results show that global observations are sufficient to delineate background rainfall rates from storms likely to cause debris flows across a variety of burn severity and topographic conditions. However, the dearth of publicly-available post-fire debris flow inventories globally limit the ability to test how the model framework performs within different climatologic and morphologic areas. This work will present preliminary analysis over the Western United States and demonstrate the feasibility of a global, near-real time model to provide situational awareness of potential hazards within recently burned areas worldwide. Future work will also consider how global or regional precipitation forecasts may increase the lead time for improved early warning of these hazards.

Elijah Orland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Latest Progress and Results in LEO-GEO and GEO-GEO Stereo AMVs

Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), derived by tracking patterns, represent the winds in a layer characteristic of the pattern. AMV height (or pressure), important for applications in atmospheric research and operational meteorology, is usually assigned using observed IR brightness temperatures with a modeled atmosphere and can be inaccurate. Stereoscopic tracking provides a direct geometric height measurement of the pattern that an AMV represents. We extend our previous work with multi-angle imaging spectro–radiometer (MISR) and GOES to moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the GOES-R series advanced baseline imager (ABI). MISR is a unique satellite instrument for stereoscopy with nine angular views along track, but its images have a narrow (380 km) swath and no thermal IR channels. MODIS provides a much wider (2330 km) swath and eight thermal IR channels that pair well with all but two ABI channels, offering a rich set of potential applications. Given the similarities between MODIS and VIIRS, our methods should also yield similar performance with VIIRS. Our methods, as enabled by advanced sensors like MODIS and ABI, require high-accuracy geographic registration in both systems but no synchronization of observations. AMVs are retrieved jointly with their heights from the disparities between triplets of ABI scenes and the paired MODIS granule. We validate our retrievals against MISR-GOES retrievals, operational GOES wind products, and by tracking clear-sky terrain. We demonstrate that the 3D-wind algorithm can produce high-quality AMV and height measurements for applications from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to the upper troposphere, including cold-air outbreaks, wildfire smoke plumes, and hurricanes.

Atmospheric motion vectors↗
NASA NTRS2019

Joint 3D-Wind Retrievals with Stereoscopic Views from MODIS and GOES

Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), derived by tracking patterns, represent the winds in a layer characteristic of the pattern. AMV height (or pressure), important for applications in atmospheric research and operational meteorology, is usually assigned using observed IR brightness temperatures with a modeled atmosphere and can be inaccurate. Stereoscopic tracking provides a direct geometric height measurement of the pattern that an AMV represents. We extend our previous work with multi-angle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) and GOES to moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the GOES-R series advanced baseline imager (ABI). MISR is a unique satellite instrument for stereoscopy with nine angular views along track, but its images have a narrow (380 km) swath and no thermal IR channels. MODIS provides a much wider (2330 km) swath and eight thermal IR channels that pair well with all but two ABI channels, o e ring a rich set of potential applications. Given the similarities between MODIS and VIIRS, our methods should also yield similar performance with VIIRS. Our methods, as enabled by advanced sensors like MODIS and ABI, require high-accuracy geographic registration in both systems but no synchronization of observations. AMVs are retrieved jointly with their heights from the disparities between triplets of ABI scenes and the paired MODIS granule. We validate our retrievals against MISR-GOES retrievals, operational GOES wind products, and by tracking clear-sky terrain. We demonstrate that the 3D-wind algorithm can produce high-quality AMV and height measurements for applications from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to the upper troposphere, including cold-air outbreaks, wildfire smoke plumes, and hurricanes.

Carr, James L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transitioning TEMPO Data for Air Quality Management Applications at the NASA SPoRT Center

The TEMPO mission has been observing air pollutants every hour during the daytime across its Field of Regard (FoR) covering greater North America since First Light on August 2, 2023. The highly anticipated public release of TEMPO data occurred on May 20, 2024, consisting of level 2 and level 3 trace gas data products of nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde, and ozone. The NASA SPoRT Center is developing value-added products and tools to support the TEMPO mission and Early Adopters program with special attention on stakeholder from air agencies. One component of our work is focused on evaluating the TEMPO products over stakeholder target areas using Pandora and surface monitor observations to characterize the uncertainties and develop best practices for processing and analyzing TEMPO data. Methods for oversampling TEMPO data to 1 km resolution are being applied over the target areas to resolve fine-scale emission sources and pollutant gradients. Machine learning techniques using TEMPO, surface monitor, and model data to estimate surface-level nitrogen dioxide concentrations are being developed over the target areas. A SPoRT viewer for TEMPO has been launched for providing visualizations of the TEMPO products and an ArcGIS dashboard is being designed for enabling air agency stakeholders to efficiently analyze TEMPO data. Training materials including user guides are being developed to ensure the effective and sustained use of TEMPO data at our stakeholder agencies. One major goal of our TEMPO initiatives at SPoRT is to better enable the inclusion of TEMPO data in air quality management applications such as exceptional event demonstrations through our close engagement with stakeholders. This talk will provide an update on our SPoRT activities and showcase use cases of TEMPO data for monitoring different emission sources including wildland fire smoke.

Air Quality↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact of August 2017 British Columbia Pyrocumulonimbus Injection Events on Lower Stratospheric Composition

On August 12-13, 2017 large wildfires in the Cariboo region of British Columbia, Canada sparked a series of pyrocumulonimbus events lifting carbonaceous aerosol and other trace gases to the tropopause region (~10-11 km). Over the subsequent days, this plume of trace gas and aerosol species was observed from numerous NASA satellite instruments to rise to over 22 km due to the strong shortwave heating of the carbonaceous aerosol. We will show observations of CO and H2O from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on Aura satellite demonstrating the clear rise and spread of the plume which can be coherently tracked for at least 2 months. Enhancements in HCN, CH3CN, and methanol (CH3OH) are also evident in MLS measurements with the former two having low vertical resolution. We have also detected a significantly lower concentration of O3 and HNO3 in the plume compared to the surrounding environment, which is consistent with a dynamical perturbation from the rapid diabatic rise of the heated plume from the tropopause through the lower stratosphere. In the weeks and months that followed this plume spread over much of the Northern Hemisphere and the aerosol was observed to be slowly removed by transport back into the troposphere. We will compare and contrast the Aug. 2017 event with the other large event in the MLS record, the Feb. 2009 Australian "Black Saturday" event, and use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) replayed to observed meteorology to understand the effect of the British Columbia event on trace gas species. GEOSCCM helps us to separate the relative roles of dynamics and chemistry on lower stratospheric trace gas composition changes, not only in the rising plume but also the impact of its eventual spread over the Northern Hemisphere during fall and winter of 2017-2018.

Oman, Luke D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Climate Variability and Impact at NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center

Climate analysis for the Southeast U. S. has indicated that inland regions have experienced an average temperature increase of 2F since 1970. This trend is generally characterized by warmer winters with an indication of increased precipitation in the Fall season. Extended periods of limited rainfall in the Spring and Summer periods have had greater areal coverage and, at other times the number of precipitation events has been increasing. Climate model projections for the next 10-70 years indicate warmer temperatures for the Southeast U.S., particularly in the Spring and Summer, with some indication of more extremes in temperature and precipitation as shown in the table below. The realization of these types of regional climate changes in the form of extended heat waves and droughts and their subsequent stress on facilities, infrastructure, and workforce could have substantial impact on the activities and functions of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. This presentation will present the results of an examination of the 100 year temperature and precipitation record for MSFC. Local warming has cause an increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures by nearly 3F, with a substantial increase in the number of maximum temperatures exceeding 90F and a decrease in the number of days with minimum temperatures below freezing. These trends have substantial impact of the number of heating / cooling degree days for the area. Yearly precipitation totals are inversely correlated with the change in mean temperature and the frequency of heavy rain events has remain consistent with the changes in yearly totals. An extended heat wave index was developed which shows an increase in frequency of heat waves over the last 35 years and a subsequent reduction in precipitation during the heat waves. This trend will contribute to more intense drought conditions over the northern Alabama region, increasing the potential of destructive wildfires in and around the Center. MSFC has begun using this climate change information to adapt short-term and long-term plans for Center operations.

Smoot, James L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗