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Results for “Yield Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Crop Modeling Application to Improve Irrigation Efficiency in Year-Round Vegetable Production in the Texas Winter Garden Region

Given a rising demand for quality assurance, rather than solely yield, supplemental irrigation plays an important role to ensure the viability and profitability of vegetable crops from unpredictable changes in weather. However, under drought conditions, agricultural irrigation is often given low priority for water allocation. This reduced water availability for agriculture calls for techniques with greater irrigation efficiency, that do not compromise crop quality and yield, and that provide economic benefit for producers. This study developed vegetable growing models for eight different vegetable crops (bush bean, green bean, cabbage, peppermint, spearmint, yellow straight neck squash, zucchini, and bell pepper) based on data from several years of field research. The ALMANAC model accurately simulated yields and water use efficiency (WUE) of all eight vegetables. The developed vegetable models were used to evaluate the effects of various irrigation regimes on vegetable growth and production in several locations in the Winter Garden Region of Texas, under variable weather conditions. Based on our simulation results from 960 scenarios, optimal irrigation amounts that produce high yield as well as reasonable economic profit to producers were determined for each vegetable crop. Overall, yields for all vegetables increased as irrigation amounts increased. However, irrigation amounts did not have a sustainable impact on vegetable yield at high irrigation treatments, and the WUEs of most vegetables were not significantly different among various irrigation regimes. When vegetable yields were compared with water cost, the rate decreased as irrigation amounts increased. Thus, producers will not receive economic benefits when vegetable irrigation water demand is too high.

Kim, Sumin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical validation of scaling laws for stratified turbulence

Recent theoretical progress using multiscale asymptotic analysis has revealed various possible regimes of stratified turbulence. Notably, buoyancy transport can either be dominated by advection or diffusion, depending on the effective Péclet number of the flow. Two types of asymptotic models have been proposed, which yield measurably different predictions for the characteristic vertical velocity and length scale of the turbulent eddies in both diffusive and non-diffusive regimes. The first, termed a ‘single-scale model’, is designed to describe flow structures having large horizontal and small vertical scales, while the second, termed a ‘multiscale model’, additionally incorporates flow features with small horizontal scales, and reduces to the single-scale model in their absence. By comparing predicted vertical velocity scaling laws with direct numerical simulation data, we show that the multiscale model correctly captures the properties of strongly stratified turbulence within regions dominated by small-scale isotropic motions, whose volume fraction decreases as the stratification increases. Meanwhile its single-scale reduction accurately describes the more orderly, layer-like, quiescent flow outside those regions.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining the $\overline{K}$N coupled channel dynamics using femtoscopic correlations at the LHC

The interaction of K – with protons is characterised by the presence of several coupled channels, systems like $\overline{K}$ 0 n and πΣ with a similar mass and the same quantum numbers as the K – p state. The strengths of these couplings to the K – p system are of crucial importance for the understanding of the nature of the Λ(1405) resonance and of the attractive K – p strong interaction. In this article, we present measurements of the K – p correlation functions in relative momentum space obtained in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$=13 Te, in p–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$= 5.02 Te, and (semi)peripheral Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$= 5.02 Te. The emitting source size, composed of a core radius anchored to the K + p correlation and of a resonance halo specific to each particle pair, varies between 1 and 2 fm in these collision systems. The strength and the effects of the $\overline{K}$ 0 n and πΣ inelastic channels on the measured K – p correlation function are investigated in the different colliding systems by comparing the data with state-of-the-art models of chiral potentials. A novel approach to determine the conversion weights ω, necessary to quantify the amount of produced inelastic channels in the correlation function, is presented. In this method, particle yields are estimated from thermal model predictions, and their kinematic distribution from blast-wave fits to measured data. The comparison of chiral potentials to the measured K – p interaction indicates that, while the πΣ –K – p dynamics is well reproduced by the model, the coupling to the $\overline{K}$ 0 n channel in the model is currently underestimated.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Actinide signatures in low electron fraction kilonova ejecta

ABSTRACT Neutron star (NS) mergers are known to produce heavy elements through rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis. Actinides are expected to be created solely by the r-process in the most neutron-rich environments. Confirming if NS mergers provide the requisite conditions for actinide creation is therefore central to determining their origin in the Universe. Actinide signatures in kilonova (KN) spectra may yield an answer, provided adequate models are available in order to interpret observational data. In this study, we investigate actinide signatures in neutron-rich merger ejecta. We use three ejecta models with different compositions and radioactive power, generated by nucleosynthesis calculations using the same initial electron fraction ($Y_e = 0.15$) but with different nuclear physics inputs and thermodynamic expansion history. These are evolved from 10 to 100 d after merger using the sumo non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) radiative transfer code. We highlight how uncertainties in nuclear properties, as well as choices in thermodynamic trajectory, may yield entirely different outputs for equal values of $Y_e$. We consider an actinide-free model and two actinide-rich models, and find that the emergent spectra and light-curve evolution are significantly different depending on the amount of actinides present, and the overall decay properties of the models. We also present potential key actinide spectral signatures, of which doubly ionized $_{89}$Ac and $_{90}$Th may be particularly interesting as spectral indicators of actinide presence in KN ejecta.

Pognan, Quentin (ORCID:0000000152550782)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical estimation of weather-driven yield shocks using biophysical characteristics for U.S. rainfed and irrigated maize, soybeans, and winter wheat

Agricultural yields are highly susceptible to changes in weather system patterns, including both annual and sub-annual changes in temperature and precipitation. Understanding the impacts of future changes in meteorological variables on crop yields have been widely studied in both empirical and process-based models. This work presents a structural econometric approach that combines historical weather data with information about the biophysical growth cycles of maize, winter wheat, and soy to predict the year-to-year yield responses for rainfed crops. Modeled soil moisture and temperature are taken as key predictors, which allows testing the fitted rainfed model’s ability to predict irrigated yields by assuming irrigation produces the numerically optimal level of soil moisture. This approach is grounded in known biophysical processes, which improves confidence in the model predictions. It produces estimates of interannual variability in yields, which enable study of the effects of extreme events on agricultural productivity. Finally, it enables prediction of the potential impacts of changing weather patterns on irrigated crops in areas that are currently primarily rainfed. We present the results of the empirical model, fitted with rainfed data; out-of-sample validation on irrigated crops; and projections of yield shocks under multiple future climate scenarios. Under a bias-corrected GFDL RCP8.5 scenario, this approach predicts average yield change, relative to 2006-2020 average yields, across U.S. counties in the 2040-2060 period of -16.9% and -13.4% for rainfed and irrigated maize, of -19.1% and -18.4% for rainfed and irrigated soy, and of -4.0% and -2.0% for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat. And in the 2070-2090 period of -30.3% and -28.8 % for rainfed and irrigated maize, of -33.1% and -32.8% for rainfed and irrigated soy, and of -6.5% and -5.2%for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Monte Carlo Modeling and Design of Photon Energy Attenuation Layers for >10× Quantum Yield Enhancement in Si-Based Hard X-ray Detectors

High-energy (>20 keV) X-ray photon detection at high quantum yield, high spatial resolution, and short response time has long been an important area of study in physics. Scintillation is a prevalent method but limited in various ways. Directly detecting high-energy X-ray photons has been a challenge to this day, mainly due to low photon-to-photoelectron conversion efficiencies. Commercially available state-of-the-art Si direct detection products such as the Si charge-coupled device (CCD) are inefficient for >10 keV photons. Here, we present Monte Carlo simulation results and analyses to introduce a highly effective yet simple high-energy X-ray detection concept with significantly enhanced photon-to-electron conversion efficiencies composed of two layers: a top high-Z photon energy attenuation layer (PAL) and a bottom Si detector. We use the principle of photon energy down conversion, where high-energy X-ray photon energies are attenuated down to ≤10 keV via inelastic scattering suitable for efficient photoelectric absorption by Si. Our Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that a 10–30× increase in quantum yield can be achieved using PbTe PAL on Si, potentially advancing high-resolution, high-efficiency X-ray detection using PAL-enhanced Si CMOS image sensors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-based filtered dissipation rate modelling for multi-modal turbulent combustion: evaluating a priori model generalizability

Manifold-based models offer a computationally efficient alternative to directly transporting the thermochemical state in computational simulations of turbulent reacting flows, projecting the high-dimensional thermochemical state-space onto a low-dimensional manifold. Recent efforts have yielded a manifold-based model applicable to multi-modal combustion, enabling reconstruction of the thermochemical state from solutions to two-dimensional manifold equations in mixture fraction and generalized progress variable that are parameterised by three scalar dissipation rates. In coarse-grained simulations such as Large Eddy Simulation (LES), closure of the multi-modal manifold equations and subfilter variances/covariance requires closure of three filtered scalar dissipation rates. Here, the present work adopts a data-based approach, providing closure for the three filtered scalar dissipation rates via deep neural networks (DNNs). High-fidelity datasets corresponding to an autoigniting n-dodecane jet flame and a bluff body swirl-stabilized confined lifted spray flame of two aviation fuels (Jet-A and C1) with different ignition propensities are leveraged to generate training data that spans a diverse range of thermodynamic conditions and combustion modes, including low- and high-temperature ignition regimes in addition to premixed and nonpremixed behaviour. A final DNN model is trained to enforce inherent physical constraints by learning nonlinear functional transformations of the three filtered scalar dissipation rates. The generalizability of this constrained DNN model is demonstrated a priori via conditional statistics evaluated on the lifted spray flame with C1–a configuration that had not been included in the training data. Excellent DNN agreement with conditional DNS statistics is observed, and integrated gradients are computed to identify the most sensitive input variables. The similarity of the marginal PDFs of the most informative input variables and outputs across configurations are quantified via the Wasserstein metric, demonstrating that data-based models may successfully generalize to unseen parametric conditions so long as the most informative input variables share similar distributions across training and testing datasets.

Data-based modelling↗
DOE OSTI2023

DIPS-Plus: The enhanced database of interacting protein structures for interface prediction

Abstract In this work, we expand on a dataset recently introduced for protein interface prediction (PIP), the Database of Interacting Protein Structures (DIPS), to present DIPS-Plus, an enhanced, feature-rich dataset of 42,112 complexes for machine learning of protein interfaces. While the original DIPS dataset contains only the Cartesian coordinates for atoms contained in the protein complex along with their types, DIPS-Plus contains multiple residue-level features including surface proximities, half-sphere amino acid compositions, and new profile hidden Markov model (HMM)-based sequence features for each amino acid, providing researchers a curated feature bank for training protein interface prediction methods. We demonstrate through rigorous benchmarks that training an existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) model for PIP on DIPS-Plus yields new SOTA results, surpassing the performance of some of the latest models trained on residue-level and atom-level encodings of protein complexes to date.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Supermassive primordial black holes from inflation

There is controversy surrounding the origin and evolution of our universe's largest supermassive black holes (SMBHs). In this study, we consider the possibility that some of these black holes formed from the direct collapse of primordial density perturbations. Since the mass of a primordial black hole is limited by the size of the cosmological horizon at the time of collapse, these SMBHs must form rather late, and are naively in conflict with constraints from CMB spectral distortions. These limits can be avoided, however, if the distribution of primordial curvature perturbations is highly non-Gaussian. After quantifying the departure from Gaussianity needed to evade these bounds, we explore a model of multi-field inflation — a non-minimal, self-interacting curvaton model — which has all the necessary ingredients to yield such dramatic non-Gaussianities. We leave the detailed model building and numerics to a future study, however, as our goal is to highlight the challenges associated with forming SMBHs from direct collapse and to identify features that a successful model would need to have. This study is particularly timely in light of recent observations of high-redshift massive galaxy candidates by the James Webb Space Telescope as well as evidence from the NANOGrav experiment for a stochastic gravitational wave background consistent with SMBH mergers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Macroalgal Cultivation Modeling System (MACMODS): Evaluating the Role of Physical-Biological Coupling on Nutrients and Farm Yield

Offshore aquaculture has the potential to expand the macroalgal industry. However, moving into deeper waters requires suspended structures that will present novel farm-environment interactions. Here, we present a computational modeling framework, the Macroalgal Cultivation Modeling System (MACMODS), to explore within-farm modifications to light, seawater flow, and nutrient fields across time and space scales relevant to macroalgae. A regional ocean model informs the site-specific setting, the Santa Barbara Channel in the Southern California Bight. A fine-scale hydrodynamic model predicts modified flows and turbulent mixing within the farm. A spatially resolved macroalgal growth model, parameterized for giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera , predicts kelp biomass. Key findings from model integration are that regional ocean conditions set overall farm performance, while fine-scale within-farm circulation and nutrient delivery are important to resolve variation in within-farm macroalgal performance. Therefore, we conclude that models resolving within-farm dynamics can provide benefit to farmers with insight on how farm design and regional ocean conditions interact to influence overall yield. Here, the presence of repeating longlines aligned with the mean current generate flow diversions around the farm as well as attached Langmuir circulations and increased turbulence intensity. These flow-induced phenomena lead to less biomass in the interior portion of the farm relative to the edges. We also find that there is an effluent “footprint” that extends as much as 20 km beyond the farm. In this regard, MACMODS can be used to not only evaluate farm design and cultivation practices that maximize yield but also explore interactions between the farm and ecosystem in order to minimize impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the transient large amplitude oscillatory shear behavior of yield stress fluids

A full understanding of the sequence of processes exhibited by yield stress fluids under large amplitude oscillatory shearing is developed using multiple experimental and analytical approaches. A novel component rate Lissajous curve, where the rates at which strain is acquired unrecoverably and recoverably are plotted against each other, is introduced and its utility is demonstrated by application to the analytical responses of four simple viscoelastic models. Using the component rate space, yielding and unyielding are identified by changes in the way strain is acquired, from recoverably to unrecoverably and back again. The behaviors are investigated by comparing the experimental results with predictions from the elastic Bingham model that is constructed using the Oldroyd–Prager formalism and the recently proposed continuous model by Kamani, Donley, and Rogers in which yielding is enhanced by rapid acquisition of elastic strain. The physical interpretation gained from the transient large amplitude oscillatory shear (LAOS) data is compared to the results from the analytical sequence of physical processes framework and a novel time-resolved Pipkin space. The component rate figures, therefore, provide an independent test of the interpretations of the sequence of physical processes analysis that can also be applied to other LAOS analysis frameworks. Each of these methods, the component rates, the sequence of physical processes analysis, and the time-resolved Pipkin diagrams, unambigiously identifies the same material physics, showing that yield stress fluids go through a sequence of physical processes that includes elastic deformation, gradual yielding, plastic flow, and gradual unyielding.

Kamani, Krutarth M. (ORCID:0000000338975420)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved modeling of in-ice particle showers for IceCube event reconstruction

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory relies on an array of photomultiplier tubes to detect Cherenkov light produced by charged particles in the South Pole ice. IceCube data analyses depend on an in-depth characterization of the glacial ice, and on novel approaches in event reconstruction that utilize fast approximations of photoelectron yields. Here, a more accurate model is derived for event reconstruction that better captures our current knowledge of ice optical properties. When evaluated on a Monte Carlo simulation set, the median angular resolution for in-ice particle showers improves by over a factor of three compared to a reconstruction based on a simplified model of the ice. The most substantial improvement is obtained when including effects of birefringence due to the polycrystalline structure of the ice. When evaluated on data classified as particle showers in the high-energy starting events sample, a significantly improved description of the events is observed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting measures of soil health using the microbiome and supervised machine learning

Soil health encompasses a range of biological, chemical, and physical soil properties that sustain the commercial and ecological value of agroecosystems. Monitoring soil health requires a comprehensive set of diagnostics that can be cost-prohibitive for routine analyses. The soil microbiome provides a rich source of information about soil properties, which can be assayed in a high-throughput, cost-effective way. We evaluated the accuracy of random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) regression and classification models in predicting 12 measures of soil health, tillage status, and soil texture from 16S rRNA gene amplicon data with an operationally relevant sample set. We validated the efficacy of the best performing models against independent datasets and also tested best practices for processing microbiome data for use in machine learning. Soil health metrics could be predicted from microbiome data with the best models achieving a Kappa value of ~0.65, for categorical assessments, and a R2 value of ~0.8, for numerical scores. Biological health ratings were better predicted than chemical or physical ratings. Validation with independent datasets revealed that models had general predictive value for soil properties, including yield. The ecological profiles of several taxa important for model accuracy matched the observed relationships with soil health, including Pyrinomonadaceae, Nitrososphaeraceae, and Candidatus Udeaobacter. Models trained at the highest taxonomic resolution proved most accurate, with losses in accuracy resulting from rarefying, sparsity filtering, and aggregating at higher taxonomic ranks. Furthermore, our study provides the groundwork for developing scalable technology to use microbiome-based diagnostics for the assessment of soil health.

16S rRNA gene↗
DOE OSTI2025

Switchgrass ( Panicum Virgatum ) and Miscanthus ( Miscanthus × Giganteus ) Long-Term Yield Patterns Reveal Consistent Productivity Declines

Perennial grasses like switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) are expected to supply a substantial amount of the United States bioeconomy's feedstock demand. However, uncertainties around their long-term yields challenge the viability of their potential and limit their wider adoption. To resolve their long-term yield patterns, we analyzed over 200 plantings of switchgrass and miscanthus across Michigan and Wisconsin, USA, measured over 5–15 years. We found a consistent two-phase long-term yield dynamic; during a yield-building phase , peak yields occurred within 4–5 years after planting, followed by a yield-decline phase in which switchgrass and miscanthus lost 30%–47% and 14%–40% of peak yields, respectively. Among the potential drivers of this dynamic and the yield decline, we found that weather conditions had little impact, as the variation across years was not large enough to drive the observed yield differences. Added nitrogen increased peak yields by 10%–20% and attenuated the yield decline by 20%–50%. However, since fertilized stands still showed a yield decline, other factors became limiting as stands aged. This conserved long-term yield dynamic has direct implications on management. A farm-to-gate economic analysis suggests replanting switchgrass and miscanthus 5 and 9 years following their peak yields maximizes profit over a 30-year time horizon. Results call for further management and breeding strategies to mitigate the yield-decline phase, and for reparameterization of global bioenergy models with carbon capture and storage, which may overestimate yields and the economic and environmental benefits of crops grown for bioenergy feedstocks.

bioenergy↗