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At least 577 records · Page 32

A study of the utilization of ERTS-1 data from the Wabash River Basin

The author has identified the following significant results. Nine projects are defined, five ERTS data applications experiments and four supporting technology tasks. The most significant applications results were achieved in the soil association mapping, earth surface feature identification, and urban land use mapping efforts. Four soil association boundaries were accurately delineated from ERTS-1 imagery. A data bank has been developed to test surface feature classifications obtained from ERTS-1 data. Preliminary forest cover classifications indicated that the number of acres estimated tended to be greater than actually existed by 25%. Urban land use analysis of ERTS-1 data indicated highly accurate classification could be obtained for many urban catagories. The wooded residential category tended to be misclassified as woods or agricultural land. Further statistical analysis revealed that these classes could be separated using sample variance.

Landgrebe, D. A.↗

Wave-turbulence dynamics in the stably stratified boundary layer

New data obtained at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory are analyzed to obtain separation of wave, turbulence, and mean field necessary for a complete treatment of wave-turbulence interaction. The data were compared with a linear stability analysis of the background atmospheric state, showing good agreement between measured wave parameters (such as wavelength, period, and vector phase velocity) and the eigenvalues of the linear solution. The analysis of the budgets of wave heat flux and temperature variance revealed the essential role of wave-turbulence interaction in maintaining a large amplitude temperature wave and countergradient heat flux. A mechanism for the maintenance of turbulence by waves in strongly stratified boundary layers is described, which emphasizes that the time-mean Richardson number is an irrelevant parameter at such times.

Einaudi, F.↗

Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Surface Fluxes Derived from Operational Analyses

Operational numerical weather prediction systems assimilate tremendous amounts of observations to produce global analyses of the atmospheric states. Since the systems include significant contributions from the model components, physical fields, such as the turbulent heat fluxes, can also be derived. However, the physical fields are indirectly constrained by the data assimilation, and so subject to uncertainty in the model parameterizations. Recently, 10 international operational analyses have been collected and reprocessed through the Coordinated Enhanced. Observing Period (CEOP). Comparisons against independent observations (global precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation) show that while there is significant range of the individual analyses, the ensemble of analyses provide data closest the observations. Here, we evaluate the collection of land surface turbulent heat fluxes. The data are available for Oct 2002 - Dec 2004, at 6 hourly, daily and monthly intervals. An ensemble mean and its variance have been computed. we will analyze the range of analysis results at daily and seasonal time scales, and where possible compare with existing observations.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

PM2.5 Variation Related to AOD and Meteorological Conditions on Diurnal Scale in Beijing, China

PM2.5 (particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5um) is one of the major air pollutants in many regions around the globe. Column integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurement provides a potential way to estimate surface PM2.5 concentration from the remote sensing technics. In this analysis, we compiled hourly measurements of surface PM2.5 and AOD made in Beijing, China and meteorological conditions provided by NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product in recent years. On daily basis, hourly PM2.5 and AOD show positive correlation, i.e. correlation coefficient (R) is higher than 0.5 on about 50% of days. We apply multi-variant analysis to this dataset and estimate the magnitude of AOD variance that can be explained by or related to PM2.5 and relevant meteorological conditions changes.

PM2.5↗

Effects of Mild Hypobaric Hypoxia on Visual Field Impairment

INTRODUCTION: The primary objective of the Exploration Atmosphere (EA) study is to validate a new prebreathe protocol necessary before exposure to a suited hypobaric environment during extravehicular activity (EVA) from a habitat ‘exploration atmosphere’ of 56.5kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2. Prebreathe protocols must be time and resource efficient while also controlling Decompression Sickness (DCS) risk to within acceptable limits. The habitat hypobaric exploration atmosphere also results in a mildly hypoxic environment (piO2 = 128mmHg). As a secondary objective of the EA study, we characterized the effects of 11-day exposure to a mild hypobaric hypoxic environment on visual performance. METHODS: Two, 11-day hypobaric chamber tests were performed (EA-1and EA-2, n=8 each) in NASA’s 20-foot chamber at Johnson Space Center where subjects lived in the exploration atmosphere. Subjects also underwent simulated 6-hour EVAs at 85% O2 and 29.6 kPa during EVA on days 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11. Visual acuity (VA), a measure of spatial resolution, and contrast sensitivity (CS), a measure of ability to distinguish ever finer increments of brightness, were assessed on non-EVA days by using gapped Landolt C testing. The luminance was controlled by using a booth, a light monitor, and a lighting rheostat. EA-1 data had revealed problems in lighting control impacting consistency of the data. Procedures were subsequently updated for the EA-2 test. RESULTS: EA-1 data revealed large variance and data recording errors and was removed from the analysis. One participant left the study at Test Day 3 during EA-2. EA-2 ANOVA results showed CS (mean change=0.010 logCSWeber) and VA (mean change, -0.016 logMAR) between pre-test and 11-day test phases; however, neither VA nor CS changes were statistically significant. There were non-statistically significant declines in VA across test phases. DISCUSSION: Overall, visual field performance did not exhibit clinically significant changes (3 lines or greater change in LogMar chart) during exposure to the mild hypoxic exploration atmosphere environment compared to pre-test baseline. The consistency and stability of VA data during EA-2 suggests that the mild hypobaric hypoxic environment did not cause clinically significant negative impacts to participants’ visual field performance.

Visual Acuity↗

Effects of Mild Hypobaric Hypoxia on Visual Field Impairment

INTRODUCTION: The primary objective of the Exploration Atmosphere (EA) study is to validate a new prebreathe protocol necessary before exposure to a suited hypobaric environment during extravehicular activity (EVA) from a habitat ‘exploration atmosphere’ of 56.5kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2. Prebreathe protocols must be time and resource efficient while also controlling Decompression Sickness (DCS) risk to within acceptable limits. The habitat hypobaric exploration atmosphere also results in a mildly hypoxic environment (piO2 = 128mmHg). As a secondary objective of the EA study, we characterized the effects of 11-day exposure to a mild hypobaric hypoxic environment on visual performance. METHODS: Two, 11-day hypobaric chamber tests were performed (EA-1and EA-2, n=8 each) in NASA’s 20-foot chamber at Johnson Space Center where subjects lived in the exploration atmosphere. Subjects also underwent simulated 6-hour EVAs at 85% O2 and 29.6 kPa during EVA on days 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11. Visual acuity (VA), a measure of spatial resolution, and contrast sensitivity (CS), a measure of ability to distinguish ever finer increments of brightness, were assessed on non-EVA days by using gapped Landolt C testing. The luminance was controlled by using a booth, a light monitor, and a lighting rheostat. EA-1 data had revealed problems in lighting control impacting consistency of the data. Procedures were subsequently updated for the EA-2 test. RESULTS: EA-1 data revealed large variance and data recording errors and was removed from the analysis. One participant left the study at Test Day 3 during EA-2. EA-2 ANOVA results showed CS (mean change=0.010 logCSWeber) and VA (mean change, -0.016 logMAR) between pre-test and 11-day test phases; however, neither VA nor CS changes were statistically significant. There were non-statistically significant declines in VA across test phases. DISCUSSION: Overall, visual field performance did not exhibit clinically significant changes (3 lines or greater change in LogMar chart) during exposure to the mild hypoxic exploration atmosphere environment compared to pre-test baseline. The consistency and stability of VA data during EA-2 suggests that the mild hypobaric hypoxic environment did not cause clinically significant negative impacts to participants’ visual field performance.

Visual Acuity↗

Evaluation of errors in prior mean and variance in the estimation of integrated circuit failure rates using Bayesian methods

The critical point of any Bayesian analysis concerns the choice and quantification of the prior information. The effects of prior data on a Bayesian analysis are studied. Comparisons of the maximum likelihood estimator, the Bayesian estimator, and the known failure rate are presented. The results of the many simulated trails are then analyzed to show the region of criticality for prior information being supplied to the Bayesian estimator. In particular, effects of prior mean and variance are determined as a function of the amount of test data available.

Fletcher, B. C.↗

A double-loop tracking system.

A nonlinear analysis which can be used to assess certain statistical characteristics of double-loop tracking systems is presented. It takes into account the mutual coupling effects of the loops in the system. Two approaches are taken to obtain steady-state probability density functions (pdf's) of the system phase errors. From these pdf's, important system performance statistics, e.g., the phase-error variances, can be calculated, thus illustrating the application and usefulness of the analysis. The analysis is applied to a satellite transponder as an example.

Yuen, J. H.↗

Assessing Risk Due to Small Sample Size in Probability of Detection Analysis Using Tolerance Intervals

Small sample size (e.g.6-30) poses risk in results of probability of detection (POD) analysis using tolerance intervals. This method is also called as the limited sample or LS POD. The analysis is performed either during NDE procedure qualification or for assessment of reliability of an NDE procedure. The risk is primarily due to sampling error. Smaller samples are not likely to be random to the population or representative of the population. The small samples are likely to be biased. Biased samples have smaller standard deviation compared to the population. POD analysis with small biased sample can lead to overestimation of POD. Many sampling schemes are available in statistics to mitigate sampling risk. Primary objective of POD analysis is to determine a decision threshold from signal response measurements of a sample such that it is less than or equal to population decision threshold for 90% POD. Sampling error implies that this NDE reliability condition is violated. One of sampling types is called a representative sample. Representative samples reduce variance in POD estimates but also reduce magnitude of the error. Sampling sensitivity analysis for some sampling types is performed here using repetitive random sampling or Monte Carlo method. Six sampling types are considered for comparison. Some of the sampling types are similar to drawing a representative sample. LS POD model assumes random sampling. Therefore, random sampling is used as a basis for comparison with each sampling type. The sampling types used in the analysis are, A. Nominal and worst-case sampling, B. Worst-case sampling, C. Nominal case sampling, D. Random sampling, E. Random target, and sub-target sampling. F. Nominal target and sub-target sampling. Results of Monte Carlo simulation indicate that type F sampling can mitigate sampling risk and is also more practical to implement. Type A sampling may also mitigate the sampling risk, but it may be less practical to implement.

Ajay M Koshti↗

Accuracy Assessment of Global Internal-Tide Models Using Satellite Altimetry Models Using Satellite Altimetry

Altimeter measurements are corrected for several geophysical parameters in order to access ocean signals of interest, like mesoscale or sub-mesoscale variability. The ocean tide is one of the most critical corrections due to the amplitude of the tidal elevations and to the aliasing phenomena of high-frequency signals into the lower-frequency band, but the internal-tide signatures at the ocean surface are not yet corrected globally. Internal tides can have a signature of several centimeters at the surface with wavelengths of about 50–250 km for the first mode and even smaller scales for higher-order modes. The goals of the upcoming Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission and other high-resolution ocean measurements make the correction of these small-scale signals a challenge, as the correction of all tidal variability becomes mandatory to access accurate measurements of other oceanic signals. In this context, several scientific teams are working on the development of new internal-tide models, taking advantage of the very long altimeter time series now available, which represent an unprecedented and valuable global ocean database. The internal-tide models presented here focus on the coherent internal-tide signal and they are of three types: empirical models based upon analysis of existing altimeter missions, an assimilative model and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. A detailed comparison and validation of these internal-tide models is proposed using existing satellite altimeter databases. The analysis focuses on the four main tidal constituents: M2, K1, O1 and S2. The validation process is based on a statistical analysis of multi-mission altimetry including Jason-2 and Cryosphere Satellite-2 data. The results show a significant altimeter variance reduction when using internal-tide corrections in all ocean regions where internal tides are generating or propagating. A complementary spectral analysis also gives some estimation of the performance of each model as a function of wavelength and some insight into the residual non-stationary part of internal tides in the different regions of interest. This work led to the implementation of a new internal-tide correction (ZARON'one) in the next geophysical data records version-F (GDR-F) standards.

Loren Carrere↗

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. This suite included a network of MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs). Each MISP was comprised of a cylinder made of Thermal Protection System (TPS) material with 1-3 embedded thermocouples (TCs), and it was flush mounted into the heatshield or backshell. Data from these in-depth TCs were used to reconstruct the aeroheating environment of the vehicle throughout entry. Surface heating was posed as an inverse problem, with the goal of estimating the surface heating by minimizing an objective function of the difference between MISP temperature measurements during flight and the temperature predictions derived from the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) program. Given an aerothermal environment, FIAT calculates the material response and provides in-depth temperatures throughout the TPS material. To achieve the reverse, an internal tool called FIAT_Opt runs through multiple different environments until the output temperature at the TC depth closely matches the flight data. 95% confidence intervals on the reconstructed surface heating were obtained using Monte Carlo analysis, in which uncertainties in the thermocouple depth and the TPS material properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, emissivity) based on flight-lot material testing were included. A variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructed peak heating to the TC placement and material property uncertainties. Variance decomposition was found to require tens of thousands of FIAT_Opt runs in order for the Sobol indices to converge. With a single FIAT_Opt run taking on the order of 40 minutes, the required number of computations would take months to complete, even if using multiple CPUs. To mitigate this problem, three machine learning models (ridge regression with cross-validation, random forest regression, and a deep neural network) were trained and tested using the 2000 Monte Carlo runs that were already completed. A subset of 1600 runs were used to train the model (i.e., training set), while the remaining 400 runs were used as the test set. The predictions from the deep neural network (DNN) on the test set showed nearly perfect agreement to the actual values computed with FIAT_Opt (R2 > 0.99). Using the DNN as a surrogate model, the variance decomposition using 50,000 runs was completed within minutes. The resulting Sobol indices showed that the reconstructed peak surface heating was most sensitive to the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity (ST = 0.37) and heat capacity (ST = 0.26). This method can be leveraged to provide requirements for material property measurements needed to improve the accuracy of surface heating prediction and ultimately lead to the reduction of design margins in the future. This presentation will include background on the MEDLI2 suite; the method used for inverse heating estimation; the way that material property uncertainties were accounted for using Monte Carlo analysis; a brief background on variance decomposition; the motivation for using machine learning in this context; how a neural network was trained on the data to enable variance decomposition in a fraction of the time; and the variance decomposition results for one of the MISPs.

Hannah Alpert↗

Onset of interfacial waves in the terahertz spectrum of a nanoparticle suspension

We used inelastic x-ray scattering to gain insight into the complex terahertz dynamics of a diluted Au-nanoparticle suspension in glycerol. Here, we observe that, albeit sparse, Au nanoparticles leave clear signatures on the dynamic response of the system, the main one being an additional mode propagating at the nanoparticle-glycerol interface. A Bayesian inferential analysis of the line shape reveals that such a mode, at variance with conventional acoustic modes, keeps a hydrodynamiclike behavior well beyond the continuous limit and down to subnanometer distances.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Taming the Wild West: Assessing Impacts-Relevant Climate Data Products (Abbreviated Report)

Impacts-relevant Earth system data refers to observational and ESM data that are downscaled, debiased, validated, and provisioned for use by decision-makers. Impacts-relevant Earth system data is essential for mitigation and adaptation planning across a variety of regions and sectors. A vast number of these data products have emerged in recent years, which has led to confusion among stakeholders and scientists as to the best product to use. With no standard evaluation protocol available for these products, the decision on which product to use was sometimes made because it was pragmatic rather than the best product to use. This project sought to develop foundational capabilities around impacts-relevant data products that would support more informed selection and application of these products. This work has been immensely successful, driving several academic publications and supported the development of a community of practice around impacts-relevant data products. Over the project’s three years we have addressed six tasks: First, the development of standard evaluation metrics for impacts-relevant climate data; second, the development of a novel suite of atmospheric river metrics; third, the development of novel metrics for precipitation feature analysis; fourth, the development of novel metrics for assessing co-variances between temperature and precipitation; fifth, the development of a dashboard for interactive examination of impacts-relevant climate data; and sixth, the establishment of a community of practice around impacts-relevant climate data that will continue beyond the conclusion of this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An empirical analysis of the distribution of the duration of overshoots in a stationary gaussian stochastic process

This analysis utilizes computer simulation and statistical estimation. Realizations of stationary gaussian stochastic processes with selected autocorrelation functions are computer simulated. Analysis of the simulated data revealed that the mean and the variance of a process were functionally dependent upon the autocorrelation parameter and crossing level. Using predicted values for the mean and standard deviation, by the method of moments, the distribution parameters was estimated. Thus, given the autocorrelation parameter, crossing level, mean, and standard deviation of a process, the probability of exceeding the crossing level for a particular length of time was calculated.

Parrish, R. S.↗

Configuration of Jupiter's magnetic tail and equatorial current sheet

Recent research reports by Behannon et al. (1981) and Connerney et al. (1981) are summarized. It is noted that the analysis made of the detailed neutral sheet crossings by the minimum variance method shows a consistent result with regard to the orientation of the neutral sheet in the magnetic tail as a two-dimensional surface rocking back and forth about the Jupiter sun-line as the rotation of the planet leads to a precession of the tilted dipole magnetic axis. The occurrence of neutral sheet crossings is found not to be consistent with any of the axially symmetric theoretical models proposed earlier on the basis of the 1974 Pioneer 10 observations. It is noted that a simple nonaxially symmetric model has been developed on the basis of the Voyager results which indicates the strong control upon orientation by the interaction of the solar wind with the Jovian magnetosphere. The model is described as simple because it improves the fit of theory to observation but uses fewer parameters. A quantitative model of the magnetodisc equatorial current sheet has been developed for the inner magnetosphere region which matches well the in-situ magnetic field observations.

Ness, N. F.↗

Spectral variance of aeroacoustic data

An asymptotic technique for estimating the variance of power spectra is applied to aircraft flyover noise data. The results are compared with directly estimated variances and they are in reasonable agreement. The basic time series need not be Gaussian for asymptotic theory to apply. The asymptotic variance formulae can be useful tools both in the design and analysis phase of experiments of this type.

Rao, K. V.↗

Study of LANDSAT-D thematic mapper performance as applied to hydrocarbon exploration

Two fully processed test tapes were enhanced and evaluated at scales up to 1:10,000, using both hardcopy output and interactive screen display. A large scale, the Detroit, Michigan scene shows evidence of an along line data slip every sixteenth line in TM channel 2. Very large scale products generated in false color using channels 1,3, and 4 should be very acceptable for interpretation at scales up to 1:50,000 and useful for change mapping probably up to scale 1:24,000. Striping visible in water bodies for both natural and color products indicates that the detector calibration is probably performing below preflight specification. For a set of 512 x 512 windows within the NE Arkansas scene, the variance-covariance matrices were computed and principal component analyses performed. Initial analysis suggests that the shortwave infrared TM 5 and 6 channels are a highly significant data source. The thermal channel (TM 7) shows negative correlation with TM 1 and 4.

Everett, J. R.↗