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DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Ontology Engineering in Provenance Enablement for the National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) analyzes and presents the impacts of climate change on the United States. The provenance information in the assessment is important because the assessment findings are of great public and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making. By applying a use case-driven iterative methodology, we developed information models and ontology to represent the content structure of the recent National Climate Assessment draft report and its associated provenance information. We tested the ontology by using it in pilot systems serving information about instances of chapters, scientific findings, figures, tables, images, datasets, references, people, and organizations, etc. in the draft report, as well as interrelationships among those instances. The results successfully help users trace provenance in the draft report, such as finding all the journal articles from which a figure in the report was derived. The provenance information in our work was maintained in the context of the "Web of Data". In addition to the pilot systems we developed, other tools and services are also able to retrieve and utilize the provenance information. Our work is part of a Global Change Information System coordinated by the USGCRP that will eventually cover provenance information for the entire scope of global change research. Such a system will greatly increase understanding, credibility and trust in the global change research and foster reproducibility of scientific results and conclusions.

Ontology engineering↗

NASA NTRS2016

National Climate Assessment - Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) Data at NASA GES DISC

As part of NASA's active participation in the Interagency National Climate Assessment (NCA) program, the Goddard Space Flight Center's Hydrological Sciences Laboratory (HSL) is supporting an Integrated Terrestrial Water Analysis, by using NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) capabilities. To maximize the benefit of the NCA-LDAS, on completion of planned model runs and uncertainty analysis, NASA will provide open access to all NCA-LDAS components, including input data, output fields, and indicator data, to other NCA-teams and the general public. The NCA-LDAS data will be archived at the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center) and can be accessed via direct ftp, THREDDS, Mirador search and download, and Giovanni visualization and analysis system.

land surface↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping wall-to-wall fractional cover of Arctic tundra plant functional types in Alaska using 20-m spatial resolution satellite imagery and harmonized plot observations

Estimates of fractional cover (fCover) across given land surfaces are used to assess, and often model, vegetation composition and diversity, which are crucial for understanding the health and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Remote sensing provides a useful means for scaling local, plot-measured fCover estimates to regional scales. Leveraging a recently synthesized and harmonized plot database, this study generated wall-to-wall maps of fCover for six Alaskan-Arctic plant functional types (PFT), including non-vascular plants, forbs, graminoids, and deciduous and evergreen shrubs, using 20-m satellite data (Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, ArcticDEM) using a machine learning regression approach, specifically the random forest (RF) algorithm, which is well-suited for handling nonlinear relationships and high-dimensional satellite datasets. This study additionally addressed the spatio-temporal inconsistencies e.g., sampling scale, plot size, and collection year in plot measured fCover by adopting a multivariate outlier detection approach—Cook’s distance—to identify high-quality plots for model training and validation. Our approach achieves high accuracy (R 2 = 0.59–0.93, root mean squared errors = 0.02–0.10 for all PFTs) between plot-observed and satellite-derived fCover when using high-quality plot samples. The mapped fCover characterizes the spatial patterns of different PFTs across the tundra biome at a 20-m resolution, providing key information needed for improved representation of Arctic tundra vegetation in terrestrial biosphere models to better understand climate-vegetation feedback across the Arctic tundra.

Arctic tundra↗

DOE OSTI2023

Natural Gas Community of the Future (Final Report)

Nicor Gas, a subsidiary of Southern Company Gas and its parent company Southern Company, is developing the concept of the Carbon-neutral, Affordable, Resilient, and Equitable Community ("CARE Community") to address the challenges of accessibility and affordability of grid-interactive efficient buildings in historically disadvantaged communities. The CARE Community is a new construction net-zero energy and carbon neutral residential neighborhood consisting of 50 homes with electricity and natural gas services in South Suburban Chicago, built as low-income affordable housing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is assisting Southern Company to explore how energy efficiency, renewable technologies, and the reliability and resilience of natural gas can be combined and optimized in an islandable energy system as part of a broader effort to understand the role natural gas plays in future communities integrated with renewable energy and improved energy efficiency. The CARE Community will demonstrate how energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs), and advanced controls can be combined with existing natural gas infrastructure to serve historically disadvantaged communities in a cold climate with low energy cost for affordable housing programs and enhanced resilience to withstand extreme weather. Homes will be a part of an islandable energy system, integrating multiple DER technologies such as solar panels, natural gas fuel cells, reciprocating natural gas engines, and battery storage. The CARE Community will provide a replicable template that affordable housing developers and energy companies can adopt throughout the United States. In this report, we present the design and modeling of the community and potential approaches for integrating DERs. We analyze and discuss annual simulations under normal operating conditions and week-long simulations under electric power grid outage conditions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Evolution of the JPSS Ground Project Calibration and Validation System

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) next-generation operational Earth observation Program that acquires and distributes global environmental data from multiple polar-orbiting satellites. The JPSS Program plays a critical role to NOAAs mission to understand and predict changes in weather, climate, oceans, coasts, and space environments, which supports the Nation’s economy and protection of lives and property. The National Aerospace and Atmospheric Administration (NASA) is acquiring and implementing the JPSS, comprised of flight and ground systems on behalf of NOAA. The JPSS satellites are planned to fly in the afternoon orbit and will provide operational continuity of satellite-based observations and products for NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite. To support the JPSS Calibration and Validation (CalVal) node Government Resource for Algorithm Verification, Independent Test, and Evaluation (GRAVITE) services facilitate: Algorithm Integration and Checkout, Algorithm and Product Operational Tuning, Instrument Calibration, Product Validation, Algorithm Investigation, and Data Quality Support and Monitoring. GRAVITE is a mature, deployed system that currently supports the SNPP Mission and has been in operations since SNPP launch. This paper discusses the major re-architecture for Block 2.0 that incorporates SNPP lessons learned, architecture of the system, and demonstrates how GRAVITE has evolved as a system with increased performance. It is now a robust, stable, reliable, maintainable, scalable, and secure system that supports development, test, and production strings, replaces proprietary and custom software, uses open source software, and is compliant with NASA and NOAA standards.

Data Processing↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evolution of the JPSS Ground Project Calibration and Validation System

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) next-generation operational Earth observation Program that acquires and distributes global environmental data from multiple polar-orbiting satellites. The JPSS Program plays a critical role to NOAA's mission to understand and predict changes in weather, climate, oceans, coasts, and space environments, which supports the Nation's economy and protection of lives and property. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is acquiring and implementing the JPSS, comprised of flight and ground systems, on behalf of NOAA. The JPSS satellites are planned to fly in the afternoon orbit and will provide operational continuity of satellite-based observations and products for NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite. To support the JPSS Calibration and Validation (CalVal) node Government Resource for Algorithm Verification, Independent Test, and Evaluation (GRAVITE) services facilitate: Algorithm Integration and Checkout, Algorithm and Product Operational Tuning, Instrument Calibration, Product Validation, Algorithm Investigation, and Data Quality Support and Monitoring. GRAVITE is a mature, deployed system that currently supports the SNPP Mission and has been in operations since SNPP launch. This paper discusses the major re-architecture for Block 2.0 that incorporates SNPP lessons learned, architecture of the system, and demonstrates how GRAVITE has evolved as a system with increased performance. It is now a robust, stable, reliable, maintainable, scalable, and secure system that supports development, test, and production strings, replaces proprietary and custom software, uses open source software, and is compliant with NASA and NOAA standards.

Next-Generation↗

NASA NTRS2021

Fairfax County Urban Development: Identifying Urban Heat Mitigation Strategies for Climate Adaptation Planning in Fairfax County, Virginia

Extreme high temperatures lead to increased instances of cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, and even death, as well as increased energy consumption and infrastructure costs. People in urbanized areas experience higher temperatures than rural areas due to diminished vegetation and increased impervious surfaces which absorb and radiate heat. Fairfax County, Virginia has embarked on Resilient Fairfax, a program aimed at addressing climate adaptation and resilience. The DEVELOP team partnered with the Fairfax County Office of Environmental and Energy Coordination (OEEC) to assess the extent of the urban heat island effect on the county and its most vulnerable populations. The team used data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), as well as the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) for the years 2013 to 2021 and found that the hottest spots were in densely urbanized areas, with temperatures as much as 47°F above that of undeveloped reference areas. The team used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model and determined that areas with higher tree canopy cover had greater heat mitigation capacity. Estimates from the InVEST model showed that a 4.5% increase in canopy cover across the county could result in a temperature reduction of up to 2.4°F in some areas. The results will allow partners to assess heat distribution across Fairfax County and implement effective mitigation strategies, including locating prime locations for cooling centers and increasing canopy cover.

W. Pierce Holloway↗

DOE OSTI2020

Micro-Pulse DIAL for Atmospheric Water Vapor Profiling (Phase I Final Report)

Water vapor plays a key role in Earth’s climate and weather patterns. Accurate, high resolution measurements of the water vapor vertical profiles in a region have been found to significantly improve the numerical weather prediction models’ short-term forecasts, precipitation forecasts, as well as severe weather forecasts. However, current measurement techniques provide very coarse resolution in space, time, and/or altitude. A network of continuously sampling water vapor profilers would greatly expand the scientific knowledge of the atmosphere and serve as a valuable input into numerical weather models. This would be of interest not only to the Department of Energy’s Environmental Sciences Division but to other institutions such as the National Weather Service, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the military.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermally Conductive Backsheets (TCB) of PV Modules: Positive Impacts on Performance, Lifetime and LCOE

The operating temperatures of photovoltaic (PV) modules can be impacted by the selection of specific packaging materials, e.g., backsheets and encapsulants. This research focuses on the evaluation of operating temperature reduction of one-cell modules by comparing conventional Tedlar/polyester/Tedlar (TPT) backsheet with novel thermally conductive backsheets (TCBs) materials. A large number of one-cell modules with two TCB types (TCB_A and TCB_B) and baseline TPT type were fabricated and installed in three different climatic conditions of the hot-dry desert in Arizona (high and low wind speed locations) and North Carolina (temperate with low wind speed location). In this study, these two TCBs were compared with conventional TPT backsheet in terms of performance, lifetime and levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The field results were analyzed for thermal performance of TCBs compared to TPT at three sites for two and half years. This study concludes that the thermal and electrical performances of the PV modules can be improved by using TCB_A in hot and dry climate sites and TCB_B at temperate climate sites. Therefore, the lifetime of TCB-based modules is expected to be higher than TPT-based modules. Using backsheet-specific power degradation levels and assuming the same cost for both types of backsheets, the LCOE of modules using TCBs is estimated to be lower than that of TPT.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution Transformer Demand

Distribution transformers, used to step-down medium voltage to service-voltage level for end-use electrical consumption, are currently experiencing major shortages. Utilities are experiencing extended lead times for transformers of up to 2 years (a 4x increase on lead times pre-2022) and prices have gone up by as much as 5-6 times in the past 2 years. Current shortages have been attributed to pent-up post-pandemic demand, workforce shortages and low retention rates, component supply chain challenges, and materials shortages (grain-oriented electrical steel, aluminum, and copper). The supply of this equipment is critical for the reliability and growth of the power system, and in meeting administration climate goals in terms of electrification of demand and the growth of renewable energy. This report details some of the initial analysis conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity and Office of Policy, in assessing the long-term demand trends for distribution transformers. Expected increased demand is due to a confluence of not only electrification and renewable energy growth, but also in the context of aging electric infrastructure, increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and utility-driven investments in reliability and resiliency of the electricity distribution system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2020

Rocky Mountain Disasters - Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery in the Colorado Front Range

Forest composition and structure in the Colorado Front Range has been altered by changing wildfire regimes. In particular, increased moderate- and high-severity fire significantly reduces forest cover following fire and often results in reduced seedling regeneration. Reduced tree canopy regrowth has chronic effects on upland ecological function and downstream water quality. This project partnered with the US Forest Service to estimate long-term vegetation recovery following four Colorado Front Range fires between 1996 and 2002—the Bobcat, Buffalo Creek, Hayman, and High Meadows fires—using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM),Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). The random forest algorithm was applied to produce maps of percent forest canopy cover for coniferous trees, deciduous trees, and all trees using time-series variables for pre- and post-fire as inputs. Similarly, maps of post-fire seedling regeneration were produced using random forest for coniferous trees,deciduous trees, and all trees using ecological drivers (soil, climate, fire, and topography) and pre-fire remote sensing predictors. Relationships between ecological drivers of post-fire vegetation trajectories were also evaluated. Additional analyses were conducted to (1) assess whether seedlings could be detected by Landsat or synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time-series analysis (2) assess pre-fire and post-fire Landsat variables against pre-fire and post-fire tree cover estimates to evaluate whether magnitude of forest change can be detected. Understanding variables that influence vegetative recovery, vegetation type conversion, and watershed characteristics will aid forest restoration efforts and water quality management.

Eric Jensen↗

DOE OSTI2022

The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment

The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). Furthermore, we find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO 2 ). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Langley Automated Sensor Inter-calibration System (LASICS): Open Access Tools for Satellite Imager Inter-Calibration

Satellite imager calibration teams are tasked with maintaining stable measurement records to facilitate reliable monitoring of geophysical parameters and ensure dependable input for weather forecast models. Satellite imagers are neither uniformly calibrated nor radiometrically scaled to a common reference. Consistent inter-calibration between various earth-orbiting satellite imager pairs is a critical step in the creation of seamless earth-scene reflectance data records over time for input to higher level algorithms that retrieve earth system climate-sensitive properties. Each imager inherently by virtue of its optics (and associated properties like Spectral Response etc.) will have a unique measurement of the same earth-scene reflected signal. A key part of this is the identification and prediction of events where the imager pairs from their respective earth-orbits view the same stable terrestrial targets with nearly identical viewing and solar geometry. Langley Automated Sensor Inter-calibration System (LASICS) will provide the Earth remote sensing community with a foundation for the harmonization of these remote sensing records by the development of an intuitive, user-friendly, interactive web-based open access service that will leverage, an existing extensive and ever-growing database of earth-imager channel spectral response functions, on-demand capabilities for computation and visualization of spectral band adjustment factors using a variety of external hyper-spectral earth observation sources (e.g. SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 for VIS and IASI, AIRS for IR) and a variety of Solar Irradiance Spectra.

Arun Gopalan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Migrating Populus with climate change: Phenology, coppice management, cold spell susceptibility, leaf dynamics, and biomass production

Understanding the phenology and productivity of Populus species is crucial for effective management and conservation strategies amid climate change. We investigated leaf budbreak timing, susceptibility to cold damage, leaf dynamics, and biomass production of 168 Populus genotypes with diverse provenances in the southeastern United States. Our study revealed significant variation in budbreak timing across different taxa and years, with genotypes inheriting traits adapted to their parents’ local climates. Temperature emerged as a key factor triggering budbreak, while leaf development depended on other environmental cues such as photoperiod. Notably, budbreak occurred approximately 20 days earlier in 2023 compared to 2022 due to higher accumulated degree days (ADDs). Short-rotation-coppice (SRC) management delayed budbreak by five to ten days. Cold damage was significant in 2023, particularly for genotypes from northern provenances and those with P. maximowiczii parentage. Severe damage was also observed in eastern cottonwood ( Populus deltoides × Populus deltoides (D × D)) genotypes, despite most having southeastern US parentages. Leaf dynamics, including leaf duration and leaf area index (LAI), varied across taxa and sites, with earlier budbreak correlating with extended growing seasons and increased LAI. Biomass production was intricately linked to phenological events, with earlier budbreak leading to increased biomass production and greater susceptibility to cold damage. Our findings highlight the importance of genetics, environment, and coppicing management in understanding and managing Populus phenology and biomass production. These insights provide valuable guidance for developing effective breeding, conservation, and management strategies for Populus species in the context of climate change.

Accumulated degree days (ADDs)↗

NASA NTRS2000

Operational Assimilation of GOES Data into a Mesoscale Model

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) within the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) since 1 November 1998. We performed the assimilation on a model grid centered over the Southeastern US. In addition, a control run without assimilation was performed to provide insight into the performance of the assimilation technique. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and relative humidity of more than 250 case days has been performed to date. Results show that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. We are working with forecasters at the National Weather Service Forecast Office located in Birmingham, AL to evaluate the impact of the assimilation on precipitation forecasts. In addition, work is currently underway to determine the ability of both the assimilation technique and Early Eta to sense the significant changes that occur in both leaf expansion and soil moisture conditions during the Spring-Summer of 1999. This will be accomplished via examination of the simulated surface energy budgets from both modeling systems.

Lapenta, William↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Publishing Variables Archived at GES DISC to Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)

We present a straightforward and low-cost approach to publish variables archived at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). An ESGF publication requires a single standard-name variable aggregated over time to facilitate data inter-comparison. It also contains significant metadata to enable searching in ESGF. We look up standard names on high demand in ESGF search history, and using OPeNDAP and NcML technologies we aggregate the corresponding variables available in the GES DISC archive with augmented metadata required by CMIP6 and obs4MIPs Data Specification version 2.1. At this writing 10 variables from a standard product of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder along with the Tech Notes are published in ESGF by NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS). Users can view, analyze, and subset remotely, and download these aggregated variables via links in any ESGF node after searching. We plan to work on and publish more variables and data from different NASA missions and experiments in our archive.

Fan Fang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fish Friendly Water Rules' Impact On the Power Grid with High VRE Levels

Columbia River basin multipurpose reservoirs are operated for hydropower production and many other purposes considering the aquatic habitat of the river basin. Specifically, the river basin fish population is a vital element for the tribal community of the river basin. When conventional thermal power plants are retired, hydropower flexibility balances the wind and solar variability of the power grid and provides grid services to maximize the high renewable power absorption. On the other hand, over-reliance on hydropower could harm the river basin fish habitat. For example, water release pulses during peak electricity demand hours and shorter-term water release variation could harm the fish population. Power grid planners, environmentalists, Columbia Basin tribes, hydro regulators, and water resource planners work together to understand the impacts of Columbia River basin operation in a fish-friendly way in the current power grid and power grid with higher renewable power share. We examine different levels of renewable share in the Western Interconnection to understand the multiple weather years and future climate projection and operating scenario impact on the power grid and water system. We measure power grid impacts for various water resources planning scenarios in terms of total system operating cost, system reliability indicators, changes in wind and solar generation and curtailments, local marginal prices, and revenue for hydropower producers. The study results inform reservoir operating rules decisions from hydropower power producers, system operators, other water users, tribes, environmentalists, and other stakeholders.

environmental↗