Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “covariance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Raccoon density estimation from camera traps for raccoon rabies management

Abstract Density estimation for unmarked animals is particularly challenging, yet density estimates are often necessary for effective wildlife management. Raccoons ( Procyon lotor ) are the primary terrestrial wildlife reservoir for Lyssavirus rabies within the United States. The raccoon rabies variant (RRVV) is actively managed at landscape scales using oral rabies vaccination (ORV) within the eastern United States. To effectively manage RRVV, it is important to know the density of raccoons to appropriately scale the density of ORV baits distributed on the landscape. We compared methods to estimate raccoon densities from camera‐trap data versus more intensive capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR) estimates across 2 land cover types (upland pine and bottomland hardwood) in the southeastern United States during 2019 and 2020. We evaluated the effect of alternative camera configurations and durations of camera trapping on density estimates and used an N‐mixture model to estimate raccoon densities, including covariates on abundance and detection. We further compared different methods of scaling camera‐based counts, with the maximum number of raccoons seen on any given image within a day best explaining density. Camera‐trap density estimates were moderately correlated with CMR estimates ( r = 0.56). However, densities from camera‐trap data were more reliable when classifying category of density as an index used to inform management (83% correct when compared to CMR estimates), although the densities in our study fell into the 2 lowest density classes only. Using more cameras reduced bias and uncertainty around density estimates; however, if ≤6 camera traps were used at a site, a line transect approach proved less biased than a grid design. Camera trapping should be conducted for at least 3 weeks for more accurate estimates of raccoon population density in our study area (<5% bias). We show that camera‐trap data can be used to assign raccoon densities to management‐relevant density index bins, but more studies are needed to ensure reliability across a greater range of environmental conditions and raccoon densities.

Davis, Amy J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Grazing Duration and Environment on Soil Carbon in Reclaimed Uranium Mines Tailings: A Region Specific Study

ABSTRACT Grassland ecosystems, which cover over one‐third of the Earth's land area, store 10%–30% of global soil carbon (C). However, these ecosystems face substantial impacts from human activities, including mining. This study investigates the spatial distribution of soil C and related environmental factors in reclaimed grasslands on former uranium mine sites in Wyoming. We hypothesized that grazing duration and environmental factors would influence soil C levels. Interactions between topography, vegetation diversity, soil properties, and soil C in the context of grazing management in both natural and reclaimed grasslands from a wide range of periods from 1 year to 100 years were analyzed using geographically weighted regression models. Data collected from 2022 to 2023 showed that total carbon was consistently higher in natural grasslands (1.2%–4.9%) than in reclaimed grasslands (0.8%–1.3%). Additionally, soil C was significantly higher in natural grasslands grazed for 1 year compared to those grazed for 100 years. In contrast, reclaimed grasslands had lower soil C in areas grazed for 1 year compared to those grazed for 7 or 14 years. The absolute values of coefficients from environmental covariates indicated that areas grazed for a shorter duration (~1 year) were more influenced by biotic and abiotic factors than areas grazed for longer periods (> 7 years). Our findings show moderate grazing increases the resiliency of grassland ecosystems when grazed 7 years or longer and acknowledge the roles of topographic, soil, and vegetative factors in enhancing soil C concentration and developing sustainable land management practices in rangeland conditions.

Shilpakar, Chandan [Department of Plant Sciences U↗
DOE OSTI2022

Particulate and dissolved metabolite distributions along a latitudinal transect of the western Atlantic Ocean

Abstract Metabolites, or the small organic molecules that are synthesized by cells during metabolism, comprise a complex and dynamic pool of carbon in the ocean. They are an essential currency in interactions at the population and community levels of biological organization. Characterizing metabolite distributions inside microbial cells and dissolved in seawater is essential to understanding the controls on their production and fate, as well as their roles in shaping marine microbial food webs. Here, we apply a targeted metabolomics method to quantify particulate and dissolved distributions of a suite of biologically relevant metabolites including vitamins, amino acids, nucleic acids, osmolytes, and intermediates in biosynthetic pathways along a latitudinal transect in the western Atlantic Ocean. We find that, in the upper 200 m of the water column, most particulate or intracellular metabolites positively covary with the most abundant microbial taxa. In contrast, dissolved metabolites exhibited greater variability with differences in distribution between ocean regions. Although fewer particulate metabolites were detected below 200 m, the particulate metabolites identified in the deep ocean may be linked to adaptive physiological strategies of deep‐sea microbes. Based on the identified metabolite distributions, we propose relationships between certain metabolites and microbial populations, and find that dissolved metabolite distributions are not directly related to their particulate abundances.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthesis and Characterization of Methacrylamide-Based Block Random Copolymers via Amine Functionalization of Polystyrene- Block -Poly(Pentafluorophenyl Methacrylate) Toward Enhanced Amenability to Manufacturing Criteria in Nanolithography

Recent interest in manipulating the chemistry of block copolymers (BCPs) to manage the covarying properties necessary to meet manufacturing criteria in nanolithography has resulted in the development and expansion of the A-block-(B-random-C) BCP architecture, where the random block allows for the decoupling of thermodynamic and wetting properties. Previous reports of such BCPs have used click chemistry to create the desired random block, but all such instances possess additional functional groups that are susceptible to undesirable side reactions upon annealing, such as cross-linking and surface grafting. This study reports the substitution reaction of polystyrene-block-poly(pentafluorophenyl methacrylate) (PS-b-PPFMA) with primary amines. The resulting methacrylamide structure of the functionalized random block has only an amide linkage between the attached functional group and the polymer backbone, thereby omitting any sources of side reactions within the BCP. The outcomes of this report also demonstrate the enhanced thermal stability of these materials by virtue of their stable amide bonds. A range of random copolymer compositions is assessed to develop BCPs in which the random block has approximately the same surface energy as the PS block. These BCPs can self-assemble into perpendicular lamellae and are therefore promising candidates for directed self-assembly.

block copolymers↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implications of increased spatial and trophic overlap between juvenile Pacific salmon and Sablefish in the northern California Current

Abstract Objective The study was designed to assess long-term variability in the distribution of juvenile Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria. The study also evaluated whether Sablefish and Pacific salmon shared food resources and looked to characterize Sablefish during an understudied period of their life cycle. Methods To meet the objectives, the study used data from 26 years of surface trawls conducted in Oregon and Washington coastal waters (1998–2023). Spatial–temporal models were used to measure changes in abundance and distribution of Pacific salmon and Sablefish along with covariates of ocean temperature. The study evaluated trophic characteristics of Pacific salmon and Sablefish from 2020 for differences. The temporal variation in size and diets of Sablefish were also analyzed, along with energy density of fish caught in 2020. Result The spatial–temporal model demonstrated that there has been a nearshore expansion of juvenile Sablefish over the past 26 years that was correlated with increased ocean temperature. The nearshore expansion of Sablefish resulted in increased spatial and trophic overlap with juvenile Pacific salmon. While feeding in nearshore waters, juvenile Sablefish demonstrated competitive feeding advantages over juvenile Pacific salmon during a critical phase of salmonid early marine life history. Juvenile Sablefish exhibited significant ontogenetic diet and energetic shifts, and even the smallest (68–80 mm fork length) were piscivorous. Conclusions If juvenile Sablefish numbers continue to increase relative to Pacific salmon, they could exert more competitive pressure, especially if food resources become limited. Pacific salmon may experience adverse effects from competition, regardless of whether or not juvenile Sablefish, which have recently expanded into nearshore waters, successfully recruit to the adult population.

Daly, Elizabeth A. (ORCID:0000000195334457)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regulatory Coordination of Photophysical, Photochemical, and Biochemical Reactions in the Photosynthesis of Land Plants

Balance among the sequential photophysical, photochemical, and biochemical reactions of photosynthesis is needed for converting fleeting energy in light to stable energy in chemical bonds. Any imbalance acts as either a bottleneck for limiting photosynthetic efficiency or an agent for inducing structural and functional damage to photosynthetic apparatus. Not only must each reaction be carefully regulated, but regulatory processes must also be coordinated across the reactions. However, regulations of different stages of photosynthesis have rarely been studied jointly. Non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) and stomatal conductance (g s ) are key regulators of photophysical and biochemical reactions, respectively. Existing evidence suggests that the redox state of plastoquinone regulates g s and that the photochemical reactions are partially regulated by the ultrastructural dynamics of thylakoids induced by osmotic water fluxes in chloroplasts of land plants. To examine how these regulations are coordinated and feedback to each other, we simultaneously measured NPQ and gs and inferred the redox state of plastoquinone and the light-induced thylakoid swelling/shrinking on numerous C 3 and C 4 species. For all species measured, NPQ and gs covary with the redox states of the electron transport chain, particularly plastoquinone, and increase as thylakoid swelling is inferred. NPQ has the maximal sensitivity at the light intensity at which thylakoid is inferred to be fully swollen. Our findings suggest that plant energy and water use strategies are intimately linked by evolution, and studying the regulations of different photosynthetic stages as a whole can lead to new insights of the functioning of photosynthetic machinery in dynamic environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration and uncertainty quantification for Davis Equation of State models for the High Explosive PBX 9501 products

Abstract This paper investigates the uncertainty in the parameters used in the calibration of an Davis Equation Of State (EOS) for the detonation products of the High Explosive PBX 9501. The procedure sought to make use of all available information about this HE to inform the best set of calibration parameters as well as the uncertainty in these parameters. The procedure made use of historical experimental data, the results from thermo‐chemical modeling as well as data on the best isentrope function fit to cylinder test experimental data. Combining all these heterogeneous data sources together in a Bayesian calibration, yielded a posterior mean and covariance. Sampling from the posterior distribution and evaluating an important Quantity Of Interest (QOI) in the EOS model, the detonation speed of a one‐inch rate stick, produced a distribution which showed variations which were in agreement with experiments. The uncertainty in the EOS was reported as eleven sets of model calibrations which spanned the range of this QOI.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probing eddy size and its effective mixing length in stably stratified roughness sublayer flows

Stably stratified roughness sublayer flows are ubiquitous yet remain difficult to represent in models and to interpret using field experiments. Here, continuous high-frequency potential temperature profiles from the forest floor up to 6.5 times the canopy height observed with distributed temperature sensing (DTS) are used to link eddy topology to roughness sublayer stability correction functions and coupling between air layers within and above the canopy. The experiments are conducted at two forest stands classified as hydrodynamically sparse and dense. Near-continuous profiles of eddy sizes (length scales) and effective mixing lengths for heat are derived from the observed profiles using a novel conditional sampling approach. The approach utilizes potential temperature isoline fluctuations from a statically stable background state. The transport of potential temperature by an observed eddy is assumed to be conserved (adiabatic movement) and we assume that irreversible heat exchange between the eddy and the surrounding background occurs along the (vertical) periphery of the eddy. This assumption is analogous to Prandtl's mixing-length concept, where momentum is transported rapidly vertically and then equilibrated with the local mean velocity gradient. A distinct dependence of the derived length scales on background stratification, height above ground, and canopy characteristics emerges from the observed profiles. Implications of these findings for (1) the failure of Monin–Obukhov similarity in the roughness sublayer and (2) above-canopy flow coupling to the forest floor are examined. The findings have practical applications in terms of analysing similar DTS data sets with the proposed approach, modelling roughness sublayer flows, and interpreting nocturnal eddy covariance measurements above tall forested canopies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

No–till establishment improves the climate benefit of bioenergy crops on marginal grasslands

Expanding biofuel production is expected to accelerate the conversion of unmanaged marginal lands to meet biomass feedstock needs. Greenhouse gas production during conversion jeopardizes the ensuing climate benefits, but most research to date has focused only on conversion to annual crops and only following tillage. Here we report the global warming impact of converting USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands to three types of bioenergy crops using no–till (NT) vs. conventional tillage (CT). We established replicated NT and CT plots in three CRP fields planted to continuous corn, switchgrass, or restored prairie. For the 2 yr following an initial soybean year in all fields, we found that, on average, NT conversion reduced nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions by 50% and CO 2 emissions by 20% compared with CT conversion. Differences were higher in Year 1 than in Year 2 in the continuous corn field, and in the two perennial systems the differences disappeared after Year 1. In all fields net CO 2 emissions (as measured by eddy covariance) were positive for the first 2 yr following CT establishment, but following NT establishment net CO 2 emissions were close to zero or negative, indicating net C sequestration. Overall, NT improved the global warming impact of biofuel crop establishment following CRP conversion by over 20–fold compared with CT (–6.01 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 for NT vs. –0.25 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 for CT, on average). We also found that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates of N 2 O emissions (as measured by static chambers) greatly underestimated actual emissions for converted fields regardless of tillage. Policies should encourage adoption of NT for converting marginal grasslands to perennial bioenergy crops to reduce C debt and maximize climate benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying Nuclear Data Correlated Through Predicting Bias in Integral Experiments via Applying Principal Component Analysis to Random Forest

ABSTRACT Nuclear data (ND) are the input data for neutron‐transport simulations to answer questions related to nuclear technologies. Subsets of ND, here > 20,000 data points, are validated with respect to thousands of criticality experiments that represent various applications on a small scale. The aim of validation with these experiments is to find errors in ND or methods. The key challenge here is that several hundreds of ND are used to simulate one integral value. Hence, one cannot clearly identify what ND are leading to bias in criticality measurements. In fact, a mistake in one nuclear‐data observable can be compensated with an error in another, and the predicted criticality value would still be predicted in agreement with experimental data. Random forest (RF) was previously employed to predict bias in criticality measurements using sensitivities of simulated criticality experiments to ND. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) metric was then applied to attribute the importance of each ND experiment and observable to bias prediction. This, however, did not highlight what ND were jointly related to predicting bias. This is important as it could inform us about where compensating errors in ND could hide. We tackle this shortcoming here by first decomposing the ND sensitivities to integral‐experiment simulations into principal components. Then we use principal component projections to predict bias via the RF and SHAP. The SHAP values and principal components are employed to reconstruct detailed SHAP values for each ND observable. We demonstrate that these extended SHAP bias predictions are more robust, less noisy, and more efficient. In addition, we show that this approach accounts for covariance in ND sensitivities and automates the identification of where compensating errors could hide in ND.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy and Emission Prediction for Mixed-Vehicle Transit Fleets Using Multi-task and Inductive Transfer Learning

Public transit agencies are focused on making their fixed-line bus systems more energy efficient by introducing electric (EV) and hybrid (HV) vehicles to their fleets. However, because of the high upfront cost of these vehicles, most agencies are tasked with managing a mixed-fleet of internal combustion vehicles (ICEVs), EVs, and HVs. In managing mixed-fleets, agencies require accurate predictions of energy use for optimizing the assignment of vehicles to transit routes, scheduling charging, and ensuring that emission standards are met. The current state-of-the-art is to develop separate neural network models to predict energy consumption for each vehicle class. Although different vehicle classes’ energy consumption depends on a varied set of covariates, we hypothesize that there are broader generalizable patterns that govern energy consumption and emissions. In this paper, we seek to extract these patterns to aid learning to address two problems faced by transit agencies. First, in the case of a transit agency which operates many ICEVs, HVs, and EVs, we use multi-task learning (MTL) to improve accuracy of forecasting energy consumption. Second, in the case where there is a significant variation in vehicles in each category, we use inductive transfer learning (ITL) to improve predictive accuracy for vehicle class models with insufficient data. As this work is to be deployed by our partner agency, we also provide an online pipeline for joining the various sensor streams for fixed-line transit energy prediction. Here, we find that our approach outperforms vehicle-specific baselines in both the MTL and ITL settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conformal wavefunctions for graviton amplitudes

The extended-BMS algebra of asymptotically flat spacetime contains an SO(3, 1) subgroup that acts by conformal transformations on the celestial sphere. It is of interest to study the representations of this subgroup associated with gravitons. To reduce the equation of motion to a Schrodinger-like equation it is necessary to impose a non-covariant gauge condition. Using these solutions, leading-order gauge invariant Weyl scalars are then computed and decomposed into families of unitary principal series representations. An invertible holographic mapping is constructed between these unitary principal series operators and massless spin-2 perturbations of flat spacetime.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Circumnavigating collinear superspace

In this paper, we extend the collinear superspace formalism to include the full range of N = 1 supersymmetric interactions. Building on the effective field theory rules developed in a companion paper — Navigating Collinear Superspace — we construct collinear superspace Lagrangians for theories with non-trivial F- and D-term auxiliary fields. For (massless) Wess-Zumino models, the key ingredient is a novel type of Grassmann-valued supermultiplet whose lowest component is a (non-propagating) fermionic degree of freedom. For gauge theories coupled to charged chiral matter, the key ingredient is a novel type of vector superfield whose lowest component is a non-propagating gauge potential. This unique vector superfield is used to construct a gauge-covariant derivative; while such an object does not appear in the standard full superspace formalism, it is crucial for modeling gauge interactions when the theory is expres sed on a collinear slice. This brings us full circle, by showing that all types of N = 1 theories in four dimensions can beconstructed in collinear superspace from purely infrared considerations. We speculate that supersymmetric theories with N > 1 could also be implemented using similar collinear superspace constructions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Two loop renormalization of scalar theories using a geometric approach

We derive a general formula for two-loop counterterms in Effective Field Theories (EFTs) using a geometric approach. This formula allows the two-loop results of our previous paper to be applied to a wide range of theories. The two-loop results hold for loop graphs in EFTs where the interaction vertices contain operators of arbitrarily high dimension, but at most two derivatives. We also extend our previous one-loop result to include operators with an arbitrary number of derivatives, as long as there is at most one derivative acting on each field. The final result for the two-loop counterterms is written in terms of geometric quantities such as the Riemann curvature tensor of the scalar manifold and its covariant derivatives. As applications of our results, we give the two-loop counterterms and renormalization group equations for the O(n) EFT to dimension six, the scalar sector of the Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) to dimension six, and chiral perturbation theory to order p 6 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Study of η(1405)/η(1475) in $J/\psi \to \gamma {K}_S^0{K}_S^0{\pi}^0$ decay

Using a sample of (10 . 09 ± 0 . 04) × 10 9 J/ψ decays collected with the BESIII detector, partial wave analyses of the decay $ J/\psi \to \gamma {K}_S^0{K}_S^0{\pi}^0$ are performed within the ${K}_S^0{K}_S^0{\pi}^0$ invariant mass region below 1.6 GeV/ c 2 . The covariant tensor amplitude method is used in both mass independent and mass dependent approaches. Both analysis approaches exhibit dominant pseudoscalar and axial vector components, and show good consistency for the other individual components. Furthermore, the mass dependent analysis reveals that the ${K}_S^0{K}_S^0{\pi}^0$ invariant mass spectrum for the pseudoscalar component can be well described with two isoscalar resonant states using relativistic Breit-Wigner model, i.e., the η (1405) with a mass of $1391.7\pm {0.7}_{-0.3}^{+11.3}$ MeV/ c 2 and a width of $60.8\pm {1.2}_{-12.0}^{+5.5}$ MeV, and the η (1475) with a mass of $1507.6\pm {1.6}_{-32.2}^{+15.5}$ MeV/ c 2 and a width of $115.8\pm {2.4}_{-10.9}^{+14.8}$ MeV. The first and second uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. Alternate models for the pseudoscalar component are also tested, but the description of the ${K}_S^0{K}_S^0{\pi}^0$ invariant mass spectrum deteriorates significantly.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geometric soft theorems

We derive a universal soft theorem for every scattering amplitude with at least one massless particle in an arbitrary theory of scalars. Our results follow from the geometry of field space and are valid for any choice of mass spectrum, potential terms, and higher-derivative interactions. For a vanishing potential, the soft limit of every amplitude is equal to the field-space covariant derivative of an amplitude with one fewer particle. Furthermore, the Adler zero and the dilaton soft theorem are special cases of our results. We also discuss more exotic scenarios in which the soft limit is non-trivial but still universal. Last but not least, we derive new theorems for multiple-soft limits which directly probe the field-space curvature, as well as on-shell recursion relations applicable to two-derivative scalar field theories exhibiting no symmetries whatsoever.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗