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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A semi-Lagrangian method for detecting and tracking deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite observations

Automated methods for the detection and tracking of deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite imagery have a vital role in both the forecasting of severe storms and research into their behaviour. Studying the interactions and feedbacks between multiple deep convective clouds (DCC), however, poses a challenge for existing algorithms due to the necessary compromise between false detection and missed detection errors. We utilise an optical flow method to determine the motion of deep convective clouds in GOES-16 ABI imagery in order to construct a semi-Lagrangian framework for the motion of the cloud field, independently of the detection and tracking of cloud objects. The semi-Lagrangian framework allows severe storms to be simultaneously detected and tracked in both spatial and temporal dimensions. For the purpose of this framework we have developed a novel Lagrangian convolution method and a number of novel implementations of morphological image operations that account for the motion of observed objects. These novel methods allow the accurate extension of computer vision techniques to the temporal domain for moving objects such as DCCs. By combining this framework with existing methods for detecting DCCs (including detection of growing cores through cloud top cooling and detection of anvil clouds using brightness temperature), we show that the novel framework enables reductions in errors due to both false and missed detections compared to any of the individual methods, reducing the need to compromise when compared with existing frameworks. The novel framework enables the continuous tracking of anvil clouds associated with detected deep convection after convective activity has stopped, enabling the study of the entire life cycle of DCCs and their associated anvils. Furthermore, we expect this framework to be applicable to a wide range of cases including the detection and tracking of low-level clouds and other atmospheric phenomena. In addition, this framework may be used to combine observations from multiple sources, including satellite observations, weather radar and reanalysis model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An algorithm for resolving intragranular orientation fields using coupled far-field and near-field high energy $\mathrm{X}$-ray diffraction microscopy

Here, we present a novel algorithm for reconstructing spatial intragranular lattice orientation fields using both far-field and near-field high energy X-ray diffraction microscopy (HEDM) measurements. An established far-field indexing algorithm is modified to include lattice orientation distribution information (grain orientation envelopes) in addition to average grain orientations. The near-field data reduction algorithm utilizes this enriched far-field orientation data as a seed for reconstructing intragranular spatial maps of lattice orientation from the diffraction images. The primary benefit of the new algorithm is a significant decrease in the number of trial calculations that must be performed in the reconstruction process compared to existing methodologies while maintaining scalability. The resulting gains in efficiency facilitate the use of relatively modest computational resources and improve throughput at the point of measurement. We provide two example applications: volumetric orientation field reconstructions for a Ti-Al alloy both before and after the application of 3% uniaxial strain. The results showcase the efficiency of the new method and the ability to resolve subtle changes in microstructure, which are associated with incipient plastic deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carrier dynamics in blue, cyan, and green InGaN/GaN LEDs measured by small-signal electroluminescence

We study the carrier dynamics for c-plane InGaN/GaN light-emitting diodes (LEDs) with various emission wavelengths near the green gap using a small-signal electroluminescence method. The LEDs were grown by Lumileds using state-of-the-art growth conditions. Radiative and non-radiative recombination rates are numerically separated, and the carrier recombination lifetime and carrier density are obtained. Experiment shows that the causes of efficiency reduction at longer wavelength in the present structures are injection efficiency decrease, radiative recombination rate decrease, and imbalance of the increase in Auger–Meitner and radiative terms due to the interplay between the carrier–current density relationship and the quantum-confined Stark effect (QCSE). Here, the effects of QCSE, phase-space filling, and the carrier–current density relationship on efficiency reduction at longer wavelengths are examined separately with experimental data and Schrödinger–Poisson calculations. In addition, we confirm the scaling law between C(n) and B(n) under electrical injection and find that the increase in carrier density at a given current density is the primary cause for lower radiative efficiency at high current density in longer wavelength LEDs. Conversely, we do not observe a significant efficiency reduction at longer wavelengths from extrinsic material degradation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Control of Differentially Private EV Charging: A Scalable Learning Approach Under Uncertainty

Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled electric vehicles (IoEVs) enable intelligent charging coordination that accounts for grid congestion. However, increased data exchange raises privacy concerns, as charging patterns can reveal sensitive driver behavior to grid operators. Here, we propose a differentially private (DP) EV charging framework that enables coordinated control while protecting driver data with theoretical privacy guarantees. Nevertheless, integrating DP inevitably introduces uncertainty into the control strategy for EVs, which can lead to infeasible solutions. To tackle this challenge, we develop a feasible and scalable control algorithm based on constrained reinforcement learning (CRL) and convex hulls. While our framework is designed to handle the uncertainty introduced by DP, it is general and also applicable to other sources of uncertainty in EV charging, such as the stochastic nature of driver behavior and renewable variability. This ensures feasible and privacy-preserving coordination of EV charging at scale. Our method constructs convex hulls within the action space to guarantee feasibility under stochastic constraints and incorporates constraint reduction techniques to improve scalability. Case studies based on IEEE benchmark systems demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively balances feasibility under uncertainty, scalability, and privacy in large-scale EV charging control.

Engineering - Power transmission and distribution↗
DOE OSTI2021

Expected individual benefit of prophylactic platelet transfusions in hemato‐oncology patients based on bleeding risks

Abstract Background Prophylactic platelet transfusions prevent bleeding in hemato‐oncology patients, but it is unclear how any benefit varies between patients. Our aim was to assess if patients with different baseline risks for bleeding benefit differently from a prophylactic platelet transfusion strategy. Study design and methods Using the data from the randomized controlled TOPPS trial (Trial of Platelet Prophylaxis), we developed a prediction model for World Health Organization grades 2, 3, and 4 bleeding risk (defined as at least one bleeding episode in a 30 days period) and grouped patients in four risk‐quartiles based on this predicted baseline risk. Predictors in the model were baseline platelet count, age, diagnosis, disease modifying treatment, disease status, previous stem cell transplantation, and the randomization arm. Results The model had a c‐statistic of 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.64). There was little variation in predicted risks (quartiles 46%, 47%, and 51%), but prophylactic platelet transfusions gave a risk reduction in all risk quartiles. The absolute risk difference (ARD) was 3.4% (CI −12.2 to 18.9) in the lowest risk quartile (quartile 1), 7.4% (95% CI −8.4 to 23.3) in quartile 2, 6.8% (95% CI −9.1 to 22.9) in quartile 3, and 12.8% (CI −3.1 to 28.7) in the highest risk quartile (quartile 4). Conclusion In our study, generally accepted bleeding risk predictors had limited predictive power (expressed by the low c‐statistic), and, given the wide confidence intervals of predicted ARD, could not aid in identifying subgroups of patients who might benefit more (or less) from prophylactic platelet transfusion.

Cornelissen, Loes L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Binning is Sinning (Supernova Version): The Impact of Self-calibration in Cosmological Analyses with Type Ia Supernovae

Recent cosmological analyses (e.g., JLA, Pantheon) of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have propagated systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix and either binned or smoothed the systematic uncertainty vectors in redshift space. We demonstrate that systematic error budgets of these analyses can be improved by a factor of ~ 1.5 × with the use of unbinned and unsmoothed covariance matrices. To understand this, we employ a separate approach that simultaneously fits for cosmological parameters and additional self-calibrating scale parameters that constrain the size of each systematic. We show that the covariance-matrix approach and scale-parameter approach indeed yield equivalent results, implying that in both cases the data can self-calibrate certain systematic uncertainties, but that this ability is hindered when information is binned or smoothed in redshift space. We review the top systematic uncertainties in current analyses and find that the reduction of systematic uncertainties in the unbinned case depends on whether a systematic is solely degenerate with the cosmological model in redshift space or whether it can be described by additional correlations between supernova properties and luminosity. Furthermore, we show that the power of self-calibration increases with the size of the data set, which presents a tremendous opportunity for upcoming analyses of photometrically classified samples, like those of Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Telescope (NGRST). However, to take advantage of self-calibration in large, photometrically classified samples, we must first address the issue that binning is required in currently used photometric analysis methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Space–Time Reduced Order Model for Linear Dynamical Systems in Python Using Less than 120 Lines of Code

A classical reduced order model (ROM) for dynamical problems typically involves only the spatial reduction of a given problem. Recently, a novel space–time ROM for linear dynamical problems has been developed [Choi et al., Space–tume reduced order model for large-scale linear dynamical systems with application to Boltzmann transport problems, Journal of Computational Physics, 2020], which further reduces the problem size by introducing a temporal reduction in addition to a spatial reduction without much loss in accuracy. The authors show an order of a thousand speed-up with a relative error of less than 10−5 for a large-scale Boltzmann transport problem. In this work, we present for the first time the derivation of the space–time least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) projection for linear dynamical systems and its corresponding block structures. Utilizing these block structures, we demonstrate the ease of construction of the space–time ROM method with two model problems: 2D diffusion and 2D convection diffusion, with and without a linear source term. For each problem, we demonstrate the entire process of generating the full order model (FOM) data, constructing the space–time ROM, and predicting the reduced-order solutions, all in less than 120 lines of Python code. We compare our LSPG method with the traditional Galerkin method and show that the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10−3) to O(10−4) relative errors for these problems. Depending on parameter–separability, online speed-ups may or may not be achieved. For the FOMs with parameter–separability, the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10) online speed-ups. Finally, we present an error analysis for the space–time LSPG projection and derive an error bound, which shows an improvement compared to traditional spatial Galerkin ROM methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biological methane production and accumulation under sulfate-rich conditions at Cape Lookout Bight, NC

Introduction: Anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is hypothesized to occur through reverse hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis in marine sediments because sulfate reducers pull hydrogen concentrations so low that reverse hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis is exergonic. If true, hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis can theoretically co-occur with sulfate reduction if the organic matter is so labile that fermenters produce more hydrogen than sulfate reducers can consume, causing hydrogen concentrations to rise. Finding accumulation of biologically-produced methane in sulfate-containing organic-rich sediments would therefore support the theory that AOM occurs through reverse hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis since it would signal the absence of net AOM in the presence of sulfate. Methods: 16S rRNA gene libraries were compared to geochemistry and incubations in high depth-resolution sediment cores collected from organic-rich Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina. Results: We found that methane began to accumulate while sulfate is still abundant (6–8 mM). Methane-cycling archaea ANME-1, Methanosarciniales, and Methanomicrobiales also increased at these depths. Incubations showed that methane production in the upper 16 cm in sulfate-rich sediments was biotic since it could be inhibited by 2-bromoethanosulfonoic acid (BES). Discussion: We conclude that methanogens mediate biological methane production in these organic-rich sediments at sulfate concentrations that inhibit methanogenesis in sediments with less labile organic matter, and that methane accumulation and growth of methanogens can occur under these conditions as well. Our data supports the theory that H2 concentrations, rather than the cooccurrence of sulfate and methane, control whether methanogenesis or AOM via reverse hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis occurs. We hypothesize that the high amount of labile organic matter at this site prevents AOM, allowing methane accumulation when sulfate is low but still present in mM concentrations

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multigrid-Reduction-in-Time for the Rotating Shallow Water Equations

We consider multilevel time-parallel methods for the numerical solution of the rotating shallow water equations. In particular, the multigrid-reduction-in-time (MGRIT) algorithm is used for the parallel time integration. An asymptotic model is used at the coarse levels while the full model is employed at the finer levels. The asymptotic model is well-suited for highly oscillatory partial differential equations like the rotating shallow water equations because it can accurately and stably take the required large time-steps on coarse levels. Our work exploits the flexibility of the MGRIT algorithm in terms of the number of levels and relaxation schemes to show some computational benefits, especially with respect to FCF-relaxation and data reuse.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parallel Algorithms for Computing the Tensor-Train Decomposition

The tensor-train (TT) decomposition expresses a tensor in a data-sparse format used in molecular simulations, high-order correlation functions, and optimization. In this paper, we propose four parallelizable algorithms that compute the TT format from various tensor inputs: (1) Parallel-TTSVD for traditional format, (2) PSTT and its variants for streaming data, (3) Tucker2TT for Tucker format, and (4) TT-fADI for solutions of Sylvester tensor equations. We provide theoretical guarantees of accuracy, parallelization methods, scaling analysis, and numerical results. For example, for a d-dimension tensor in $\mathbb{R}$ $n\times∙∙∙$$\times$$n$ a two-sided sketching algorithm PSTT2 is shown to have a memory complexity of $O(n^{[d/2]})$, improving upon $O(n^{d—1})$ from previous algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pyrolysis Vapor and Bio-Oil Preconditioning via Ex Situ Hydrodeoxygenation and Alkylation Using a Heteropolyacid Catalyst

Ex situ catalytic preconditioning of biomass pyrolysis vapors (partial deoxygenation) has the potential for both reducing the oxygen content and beneficially influencing the oxygen speciation of condense bio-oils for enhancement of downstream condensed phase upgrading processes. Here, condensed phase upgrading processes may refer to both coprocessing and hydroprocessing with vacuum gas-oil (VGO). Reduction of oxygen content to produce bio-oils with greater hydrophobicity can enhance VGO-solubility while tailoring of oxygen speciation by removal of reactive carbonyls (e.g., acetic acid) can lessen catalytic deactivation via coking reactions. 1,2 Furthermore, enhanced VGO-solubility and reduced coking leads to greater biogenic carbon incorporation in end-products from condensed phase upgrading processes. By leveraging the hydrodeoxygenation and alkylation activity of a titania-supported molybdenum-heteropolyacid (Mo-HPA/TiO2) catalyst, pyrolysis vapors and resulting condensed bio-oils were effectively preconditioned for downstream upgrading. 3 Data regarding the use of Mo-HPA/TiO2 for pyrolysis vapor preconditioning will be presented on, including method of employment, catalyst characterization, and impacts on bio-oil in relation to downstream condensed phase upgrading processes. Our approach is to: Compare Mo-HPA/TiO2 product distribution to HZSM-5; Investigate Mo-HPA/TiO2 regeneration and characterize changes in acid site character; Assess product differences in terms of enhanced VGO-solubility.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Capacity Design Method for Integrated Convective/Radiant Terminals to Guarantee Overall and Local Environment

To achieve energy efficiency in the operation of heating devices and ensure thermal comfort in indoor environments, the integrated convective/radiant terminals have become an important development direction for heating systems. This study selected a 14 m 2 bedroom hot summer and cold winter region in China as a case study. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methodology was used to investigate the design of integrated convective/radiant terminals to ensure thermal comfort for both the entire room and partial space. The results indicate that focusing on partial space during the steady-state stage can achieve energy savings of 31.1% compared to guaranteeing the entire room. Additionally, during the start-up stage, there is a significant reduction of convective unit capacity by 17.6% when the start-up time is 15 minutes. These findings provide data support for the design and engineering applications of products of integrated convective/radiant terminals. Besides, the excess convection ratios for the entire room and partial space are specified as 0.69 to 0.80 and 0.73 to 0.83, respectively.

Chi, Junjie↗
DOE OSTI2026

Two-phase flow numerical analysis of electrode geometry for alkaline water electrolyzers

Hydrogen is a promising component of a future energy-secure and efficient economy, but its competitiveness depends on reducing production costs. One strategy is to operate alkaline water electrolyzers at higher current densities to increase output. However, this intensifies performance losses due to gas bubble accumulation, which blocks transport pathways and deactivates electrochemically active surfaces. Enhancing bubble evacuation through electrode design is therefore essential. Previous studies have explored various approaches — such as modifying surface morphology, applying sonication or pressure modulation, and introducing surfactants — but these efforts have addressed a limited range of conditions due to the complexity of two-phase flow and electrode geometries. Experiments have also largely been focused on either cell level improvements, which lack the information necessary to isolate each contributing factor, or on modified geometries that are not relevant to practical cell operation. From a modeling perspective, conventional Eulerian multiphase models do not track the complex gas–liquid interfacial dynamics and often neglect surface tension and contact angle effects, reducing their predictive accuracy. To provide insights on the effects of different electrode geometries on the performance of alklaine water electrolyzers this work employs an immersed boundary volume-of-fluid method to simulate bubble behavior in 3D porous electrodes. Multiple base electrode geometries, typically used in practice, with varying porosity are evaluated under a constant surface gas generation rate. Simulation data is analyzed to quantify electrode gas coverage, bubble size dynamics and other relevant metrics. Results show that porosity strongly influences bubble accumulation on electrode surfaces, with higher porosity reducing gas coverage, and its not strictly dependent on the electrode geometry. However, the electrode’s base geometry significantly affects gas accumulation at the separator gap, independent of porosity. A foam electrode geometry resulted in the lowest gas coverage of all electrodes with a median volumetric gas coverage of 11%, but at the cost of a 70% reduction in active area compared with the largest surface area electrode, while gyroid electrodes showed the best trade-off between gas coverage, particularly at the separator surface, and electrochemically active area. In conclusion, the results highlight the need for holistic electrode design strategies.

Alkaline↗
DOE OSTI2021

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients

Abstract The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deciphering Reaction Mechanisms of Molecular Proton Reduction Catalysts with Cyclic Voltammetry: Kinetic vs Thermodynamic Control

The kinetics and thermodynamics of elementary reaction steps involved in the catalytic reduction of protons to hydrogen define the reaction landscape for catalysis. The mechanisms can differ in the order of the elementary proton transfer, electron transfer, and bond-forming steps and can be further differentiated by the sites at which protons and electrons localize. Access to fully elucidated mechanistic, kinetic, and thermochemical details of molecular catalysts is crucial to facilitate the development of new catalysts that operate with optimal efficiency, selectivity, and durability. The mechanism by which a catalyst operates, as well as the kinetics and thermodynamics associated with the individual steps, can often be accessed through electroanalytical studies. Here, this Account details the application of cyclic voltammetry to interrogate reaction mechanisms and quantify the kinetics and thermodynamics of elementary reaction steps for a series of molecular catalysts that mediate electrochemical proton reduction. I distinguish the limiting scenarios wherein a catalyst operates under kinetic control vs thermodynamic control, with a focus on detecting how cyclic voltammetry features shift with proton source strength and concentration, as well as scan rate. For systems that operate under kinetic control, catalytic currents are observed at, or slightly positive toward, the formal potential for the redox process that triggers catalysis. Under thermodynamic control, catalytic responses shift as a function of the proton source pKa and effective pH of the solution. After drawing this distinction, we introduce the appropriate voltammetry experiments and accompanying analytical expressions for extracting key metrics from the data. To illustrate analytical strategies to quantify elementary reaction steps of catalysts operating under kinetic control, I describe our studies of proton reduction catalysts Co(dmgBF 2 ) 2 (CH 3 CN) 2 (dmgBF 2 = difluoroboryl-dimethylglyoxime) and [Ni(P 2 Ph N 2 Ph ) 2 ] 2+ (P 2 Ph N 2 Ph = 1,5-phenyl-3,7-phenyl-1,5-diaza-3,7-diphosphacyclooctane). Here, peak shift analysis, foot-of-the-wave analysis, and plateau current analysis are applied to data sets wherein voltammetric response are recorded as a function of catalyst concentration, proton source concentration, proton source strength, and scan rate to quantify rate constants for elementary proton transfer and bond-forming steps in a catalytic cycle. Further, the case study of [Ni(P 2 Ph N 2 Ph ) 2 ] 2+ illustrates how complementary spectroscopic methods can bolster the mechanistic assignment. Collectively, these two studies showcase how detailed mechanistic studies inform on rate-limiting elementary steps in catalysis and other key processes underpinning catalysis. Second, I present analytical strategies to interrogate catalysts operating under thermodynamic control, centered on the case study of [Ni II (P 2 Ph N 2 Bn ) 2 ] 2+ (P 2 Ph N 2 Bn = 1,5-dibenzyl-3,7-diphenyl-1,5-diaza-3,7-diphosphacyclooctane). Here, the application of nonaqueous Pourbaix theory to extract thermodynamic information is introduced, and the construction of a coupled Pourbaix diagram is detailed. This study identifies ligand-based protonation as the key process that places catalysis under thermodynamic control and influences the reaction mechanism. Together, the work detailed in this Account showcases the utility of electroanalytical methods to disentangle complex reaction mechanisms and extract key thermochemical and kinetic parameters for elementary steps of catalysis. Through detailed presentation of the key analytical expressions that underpin these analyses, this Account seeks to facilitate the adoption of cyclic voltammetry by the community to fully extract kinetic, thermochemical, and mechanistic information on electrochemical small-molecule activation.

catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2022

In Situ XAFS, XRD, and DFT Characterization of the Sulfur Adsorption Sites on Cu and Ce Exchanged Y Zeolites

Adsorptive desulfurization with Cu and Ce ion-exchanged Y zeolite (CuCeY) has proven to be an effective method for the removal of sulfur compounds from hydrocarbon fuels. In this study, Cu and Ce exchanged Y materials including CuY, CeY, and CuCeY were prepared and examined to investigate the mechanism behind the superior sulfur adsorption and selectivity of CuCeY. In situ conditions were used to study the materials as prepared for optimal desulfurization. X-ray diffraction (XRD) confirmed the absence of large well-ordered crystalline phases from metallic or oxide Cu and Ce after the reduction of the samples. The oxidation states and local environments of Cu and Ce were determined using X-ray adsorption fine structure (XAFS) analysis and correlated to theoretical findings obtained from density functional theory (DFT) calculations. XAFS data indicate the successful reduction of Cu species to Cu + and Cu o , and Ce to Ce 3+ . Analysis of XAFS spectra located Cu and Ce within the Y zeolite framework with Cu cations in the six-member ring sites and as small metallic Cu clusters. Ce cations were found to occupy both six-member ring and hexagonal prism sites. Furthermore, these results reveal the structure of CuCeY as prepared for desulfurization and provide insight into its superior sulfur adsorption performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of foreground moment deprojection for semi-blind CMB polarization reconstruction

Abstract Upcoming Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) experiments, aimed at measuring primordial CMB polarization B-modes, require exquisite control of instrumental systematics and Galactic foreground contamination. Blind minimum-variance techniques, like the Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC), have proven effective in reconstructing the CMB polarization signal and mitigating foregrounds and systematics across diverse sky models without suffering from foreground mismodelling errors. Still, residual foreground contamination from NILC may bias the recovered CMB polarization at large angular scales when confronted with the most complex foreground scenarios.By adding constraints to NILC to deproject statistical moments of the Galactic emission, the Constrained Moment ILC (cMILC) method has been demonstrated to further enhance foreground subtraction, albeit with an associated increase in overall noise variance. Faced with this trade-off between foreground bias reduction and overall variance minimization, there is still no recipe on which moments to deproject and which are better suited for blind variance minimization. To address this, we introduce the optimized cMILC (ocMILC) pipeline, which performs full automated optimization of the required number and set of foreground moments to deproject, pivot parameter values, and deprojection coefficients across the sky and angular scales, depending on the actual sky complexity, available frequency coverage, and experiment sensitivity. The optimal number of moments for deprojection, before paying significant noise penalty, is determined through a data diagnosis inspired by the Generalized NILC (GNILC) method.Validated on B-mode simulations of thePICOspace mission concept with four challenging foreground models, ocMILC exhibits lower Galactic foreground contamination compared to NILC and cMILC at all angular scales, with limited noise penalty. This multi-layer optimization enables the ocMILC pipeline to achieve unbiased posteriors of the tensor-to-scalar ratio, regardless of foreground complexity.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bias Correction in Urban Building Energy Modeling for Chicago Using Machine Learning

Urban-scale building energy modeling (UBEM) holds promise for optimizing energy usage across extensive geographic regions. However, there is a recognized bias between simulated energy consumption and actual measured data. This study, based on building data from Chicago, delved into bias correction techniques for enhancing the accuracy of UBEM energy consumption estimates. Initially, the AutoBEM simulation yielded a normalized mean bias error (NMBE) of 1.1% and 51% of Coefficient of the Variation of the Root Mean Square Error (CVRMSE) after outlier exclusion. To address this, three bias correction methods were deployed: Average Mean Bias Error based bias correction, Quantile mapping bias correction, and Machine learning-based bias correction using Linear Regression and Random Forest models. Post-correction results exhibited marked improvement. The NMBE values were diminished to 0 for Average MBE-based, 0.36 for Quantile Mapping, and 0 for Machine Learning-based corrections. Concurrently, the CVRMSE values registered reductions from an original 51 to 50.8 for Quantile Mapping, and 38.56 for Machine Learning-based corrections, pointing towards the effectiveness of specific bias correction methods in refining the precision of UBEM energy predictions. Such accurate estimations are paramount for informed energy planning and urban policy-making.

Chowdhury, Shovan↗