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DOE OSTI2016

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sodium Chemistry Assessment and Initiation of Sodium Exposure Experiment on A709 Commercial Heats and LPBF 316H SS

This report documents sodium chemistry characterization and the initiation of forced‑convection sodium exposure experiments for two structural materials for sodium‑cooled fast reactors (SFRs): Alloy 709 (solution‑annealed and with an additional 775 °C/10 h precipitation treatment) and laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316H stainless steel tensile specimens printed with an as‑built surface condition. The sodium exposure experiment was conducted in a forced‑convection sodium loop with two vessels operated at 550 °C and 600 °C, and a cold trap maintained at <130 °C. Carbon activity in sodium was quantified using a nickel‑foil equilibration method. Initial post‑exposure evaluation after ~1,000 h indicates negligible thickness change for Alloy 709 and a small but measurable mass decrease. To isolate thermal effects from sodium effects, parallel thermal‑aging experiments were performed on Alloy 709 at 550 °C and 600 °C. Baseline tensile tests at room temperature, 550 °C, and 600 °C show expected reduction in strength with increasing temperature and serration tensile curves at elevated temperatures, consistent with dynamic strain aging. After 3,000 h thermal aging, Alloy 709 exhibits modest strengthening and reduced ductility at 550 °C. Together, these results establish the loop chemistry conditions and provide the initial corrosion and mechanical property results for ongoing long‑duration sodium exposure of Alloy 709 and LPBF 316H stainless steel.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

EXPRES. I. HD 3651 as an Ideal RV Benchmark

The next generation of exoplanet-hunting spectrographs should deliver up to an order of magnitude improvement in radial velocity (RV) precision over the standard 1 m s{sup −1} state-of-the-art spectrographs. This advance is critical for enabling the detection of Earth-mass planets around Sun-like stars. New calibration techniques such as laser frequency combs and stabilized etalons ensure that the instrumental stability is well characterized. However, additional sources of error include stellar noise, undetected short-period planets, and telluric contamination. To understand and ultimately mitigate error sources, the contributing terms in the error budget must be isolated to the greatest extent possible. Here, we introduce a new high-cadence RV program, the Extreme Precision Spectrograph (EXPRES) 100 Earths Survey, which aims to identify rocky planets around bright, nearby G and K dwarfs. We also present a benchmark case: the 62 day orbit of a Saturn-mass planet orbiting the chromospherically quiet star, HD 3651. The combination of high eccentricity (0.6) and a moderately long orbital period ensures significant dynamical clearing of any inner planets. Our Keplerian model for this planetary orbit has a residual rms of 58 cm s{sup −1} over a ∼6 month time baseline. By eliminating significant contributors to the RV error budget, HD 3651 serves as a standard for evaluating the long-term precision of extreme precision RV programs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1984

Inversion Algorithms for Water Vapor Radiometers Operating at 20.7 and 31.4 Ghz

Eight water vapor radiometers (WVRs) were constructed as research and development tools to support the Advanced System Programs in the Deep Space Network and the Crustal Dynamics Project. These instruments are intended to operate at the stations of the Deep Space Network (DSN), various radio observatories, and obile facilities that participate in very long baseline interferometric (VLBI) experiments. It is expected that the WVRs will operate in a wide range of meteorological conditions. Several algorithms are discussed that are used to estimate the line-of-sight path delay due to water vapor and columnar liquid water rom the observed microwave brightness temperatures provided by the WVRs. In particular, systematic effects due to site and seasonal variations are examined. The accuracy of the estimation as indicated by a simulation calculation is approximately 0.3 cm for a noiseless WVR in clear and moderately cloudy weather. With a realistic noise model of WVR behavior, the inversion accuracy is approximately 0.6 cm.

Resch, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Numerical model of solar dynamic radiator for parametric analysis

Growth power requirements for Space Station Freedom will be met through addition of 25 kW solar dynamic (SD) power modules. The SD module rejects waste heat from the power conversion cycle to space through a pumped-loop, multi-panel, deployable radiator. The baseline radiator configuration was defined during the Space Station conceptual design phase and is a function of the state point and heat rejection requirements of the power conversion unit. Requirements determined by the overall station design such as mass, system redundancy, micrometeoroid and space debris impact survivability, launch packaging, costs, and thermal and structural interaction with other station components have also been design drivers for the radiator configuration. Extensive thermal and power cycle modeling capabilities have been developed which are powerful tools in Station design and analysis, but which prove cumbersome and costly for simple component preliminary design studies. In order to aid in refining the SD radiator to the mature design stage, a simple and flexible numerical model was developed. The model simulates heat transfer and fluid flow performance of the radiator and calculates area mass and impact survivability for many combinations of flow tube and panel configurations, fluid and material properties, and environmental and cycle variations. A brief description and discussion of the numerical model, it's capabilities and limitations, and results of the parametric studies performed is presented.

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Reduction of blade-vortex interaction noise using higher harmonic pitch control

An acoustics test using an aeroelastically scaled rotor was conducted to examine the effectiveness of higher harmonic blade pitch control for the reduction of impulsive blade-vortex interaction (BVI) noise. A four-bladed, 110 in. diameter, articulated rotor model was tested in a heavy gas (Freon-12) medium in Langley's Transonic Dynamics Tunnel. Noise and vibration measurements were made for a range of matched flight conditions, where prescribed (open-loop) higher harmonic pitch was superimposed on the normal (baseline) collective and cyclic trim pitch. For the inflow-microphone noise measurements, advantage was taken of the reverberance in the hard walled tunnel by using a sound power determination approach. Initial findings from on-line data processing for three of the test microphones are reported for a 4/rev (4P) collective pitch control for a range of input amplitudes and phases. By comparing these results to corresponding baseline (no control) conditions, significant noise reductions (4 to 5 dB) were found for low-speed descent conditions, where helicopter BVI noise is most intense. For other rotor flight conditions, the overall noise was found to increase. All cases show increased vibration levels.

Brooks, Thomas F.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The development of an advanced generic solar dynamic heat receiver thermal model

An advanced generic solar dynamic heat receiver thermal model under development which can analyze both orbital transient and orbital average conditions is discussed. This model can be used to study advanced receiver concepts, evaluate receiver concepts under development, analyze receiver thermal characteristics under various operational conditions, and evaluate solar dynamic system thermal performances in various orbit conditions. The model and the basic considerations that led to its creation are described, and results based on a set of baseline orbit, configuration, and operational conditions are presented to demonstrate the working of the receiver model.

Wu, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reduction of blade-vortex interaction noise through higher harmonic pitch control

Brooks, Thomas F.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Dynamic Stall Measurements and Computations for a VR-12 Airfoil with a Variable Droop Leading Edge

High density-altitude operations of helicopters with advanced performance and maneuver capabilities have lead to fundamental research on active high-lift system concepts for rotor blades. The requirement for this type of system was to improve the sectional lift-to-drag ratio by alleviating dynamic stall on the retreating blade while simultaneously reducing the transonic drag rise of the advancing blade. Both measured and computational results showed that a Variable Droop Leading Edge (VDLE) airfoil is a viable concept for application to a rotor high-lift system. Results are presented for a series of 2D compressible dynamic stall wind tunnel tests with supporting CFD results for selected test cases. These measurements and computations show a dramatic decrease in the drag and pitching moment associated with severe dynamic stall when the VDLE concept is applied to the Boeing VR-12 airfoil. Test results also show an elimination of the negative pitch damping observed in the baseline moment hysteresis curves.

Martin, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Internal Structural Design of the Common Research Model Wing Box for Aeroelastic Tailoring

This work explores the use of alternative internal structural designs within a full-scale wing box structure for aeroelastic tailoring, with a focus on curvilinear spars, ribs, and stringers. The baseline wing model is a fully-populated, cantilevered wing box structure of the Common Research Model (CRM). Metrics of interest include the wing weight, the onset of dynamic flutter, and the static aeroelastic stresses. Twelve parametric studies alter the number of internal structural members along with their location, orientation, and curvature. Additional evaluation metrics are considered to identify design trends that lead to lighter-weight, aeroelastically stable wing designs. The best designs of the individual studies are compared and discussed, with a focus on weight reduction and flutter resistance. The largest weight reductions were obtained by removing the inner spar, and performance was maintained by shifting stringers forward and/or using curvilinear ribs: 5.6% weight reduction, a 13.9% improvement in flutter speed, but a 3.0% increase in stress levels. Flutter resistance was also maintained using straight-rotated ribs although the design had a 4.2% lower flutter speed than the curved ribs of similar weight and stress levels were higher. For some configurations, the differences between curved and straight ribs were smaller, which provides motivation for future optimization-based studies to fully exploit the trade-offs.

Jutte, Christine V.↗

NASA NTRS2015

JPSS-1 VIIRS Pre-Launch Radiometric Performance

The first Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS-1 or J1) mission is scheduled to launch in January 2017, and will be very similar to the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) mission. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on board the J1 spacecraft completed its sensor level performance testing in December 2014. VIIRS instrument is expected to provide valuable information about the Earth environment and properties on a daily basis, using a wide-swath (3,040 km) cross-track scanning radiometer. The design covers the wavelength spectrum from reflective to long-wave infrared through 22 spectral bands, from 0.412 m to 12.01 m, and has spatial resolutions of 370 m and 740 m at nadir for imaging and moderate bands, respectively. This paper will provide an overview of pre-launch J1 VIIRS performance testing and methodologies, describing the at-launch baseline radiometric performance as well as the metrics needed to calibrate the instrument once on orbit. Key sensor performance metrics include the sensor signal to noise ratios (SNRs), dynamic range, reflective and emissive bands calibration performance, polarization sensitivity, bands spectral performance, response-vs-scan (RVS), near field response, and stray light rejection. A set of performance metrics generated during the pre-launch testing program will be compared to the sensor requirements and to SNPP VIIRS pre-launch performance.

Oudrari, Hassan↗

NASA NTRS2019

Stars at High Spatial Resolution

We summarize some of the compelling new scientific opportunities for understanding stars and stellar systems that can be enabled by sub-milliarcsec (sub-mas) angular resolution, UV/Optical spectral imaging observations, which can reveal the details of the many dynamic processes (e.g., evolving magnetic fields, accretion, convection, shocks, pulsations, winds, and jets) that affect stellar formation, structure, and evolution. These observations can only be provided by long baseline interferometers or sparse aperture telescopes in space, since the aperture diameters required are in excess of 500 m – a regime in which monolithic or segmented designs are not and will not be feasible - and since they require observations at wavelengths (UV) not accessible from the ground. Such observational capabilities would enable tremendous gains in our understanding of the individual stars and stellar systems that are the building blocks of our Universe and which serve as the hosts for life throughout the Cosmos.

Kenneth G Carpenter↗

NASA NTRS2026

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Aperture of the PIP-II Accumulator Ring (PAR)

The Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) will include a superconducting linear accelerator which will accelerate H- ions to 800MeV, at an intensity never seen before. A proposed PIP-II Accumulator Ring (PAR) can reduce the injection losses to the booster, enhance the ramp up of the Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and support experiments in Dark Sector Physics. When the beam is circulating in PAR at its full intensity, it will then be transferred to the Booster via single turn injection. Strong PAR focusing results in larger phase advances, shorter focal lengths and higher machine tunes, which creates robust beam envelope control. Particles will be able to survive modest excursions from the elliptical phase-space trajectories of linear optics, and any loss of particles would be due to reduced dynamic aperture. The values for tunes and chromaticities are flexible and will continue to evolve as the lattice matures. Since there will be non-linear terms impacting the particles’ trajectories, tracking will include realistic magnetic field errors and installation alignment errors to determine the dynamic aperture as a function of the machine tunes. This will allow us to determine the optimum operating point in phase-space.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Field Demonstration of The Krauklis Seismic Wave In A Novel Mva Method For Geologic CO 2 Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted a feasibility study of a new, low-impact geophysics monitoring method designed to incrementally track the saturation front of CO 2 injected into a reservoir. The method leverages a new way of transmitting energy from the surface to the reservoir and employs a new subsurface signal called the Krauklis wave (K-wave) and other guided waves for seismic monitoring. The EERC partnered with Seismos, Inc., the company that holds the exclusive technology license for this method, to advance development of K-wave technology, and Denbury Onshore, LLC, to field-test the system. The system was field-tested at Denbury’s Bell Creek oil field, currently undergoing CO 2 -based enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in southeastern Montana. The K-wave system uses a wellhead-mounted source to propagate energy down the wellbore in the form of a tube wave and through the well perforations into the reservoir. Part of the energy transmitted through the perforations into the reservoir converts to slow moving K-waves and/or other guided waves that are expected to propagate through the formation to neighboring wells. The propagated signal would induce tube waves in the neighboring wells that return to the surface to be recorded with a wellhead-mounted receiver. The propagation time of the signal is directly affected by the presence of CO 2 between the wells, so the difference in transit time of the returning signal between pre- and postinjection data sets could be used to help define the lateral extent of a CO 2 saturation front. Objectives of the study were to demonstrate, validate, and evaluate the K-wave method’s ability to monitor the morphology of injected CO 2 and estimate saturation distribution. Results from the demonstration were to be compared to conventional 4-D surface seismic methods, dynamic reservoir simulations, and CO 2 breakthrough data to validate the technology and provide useful information that may result in improvements. Prior to mobilizing for the full-scale K-wave baseline survey, a field test was conducted to better understand wellhead hardware configurations and test the response from the Bell Creek reservoir using three wells. Useful operational information resulted but signal from the first-generation gas release/gas injection source was not recorded in neighboring wells. After the initial field test, numerical modeling of the K-wave method was initiated using parameters specific to the Bell Creek Field. Modeling results indicated that the fundamental concepts behind the K-wave method exhibited problems and revealed a significantly greater attenuation of the signal at the wellbore perforations than expected, totaling on the order of 10-8 from source well to receiver well over a 400-m well spacing. Modeling also showed that greater source frequency bandwidth was needed to produce guided waves within a 30-foot-thick reservoir layer such as that at Bell Creek and that reservoir layer seismic velocity would need to be slower than the velocities of the bounding layers in order to act as a wave guide opposite to what exists at Bell Creek. Modeling results prompted a second field test with a stronger, second-generation displacement source developed in the interim. Concurrent with the second field test, a 3-D seismic survey was acquired to serve as a baseline for project validation and to serve as a monitor data set for the portion of the project area where CO 2 injection had already commenced. The new source was tested using a four-well geometry and failed to produce a detectable signal, which appeared to confirm modeling results and indicated that the Bell Creek Field is not an ideal site for the K-wave test. It was concluded that a source with sufficient strength and bandwidth could not be built to overcome the factors discovered by the modeling within a reasonable amount of time. Several other sites undergoing CO 2 -based EOR were also evaluated; however, none of these sites was amenable because of geology, limitations of source and receiver hardware, or the advanced state of the CO 2 flood. In addition, two other configurations of the source and receiver layout were considered; however, these design modifications either changed the scope of the project or did not meet the goals of the Carbon Storage Program. In consultation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Project Manager and Technology Manager, a no-go decision was invoked to forego additional expenditures as the technology would not meet current project objectives. Project activities to date have moved the technology forward by developing modeling equations that can be applied elsewhere, advanced the state of wellhead sensors and sources, and spurred improvements to field operations. The 3-D seismic survey in the project area and the dynamic reservoir simulations done as part of this study have provided value for ongoing and future synergistic activities at Bell Creek related to DOE carbon storage goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Transportation Networks for E-Waste Reverse Logistics: A Multi-Modal Cost Allocation and Pricing Strategy

The exponential growth of electronic waste (e-waste) poses critical challenges for sustainable reverse logistics and transportation network optimization. This study develops a dual-channel transportation framework for e-waste logistics that integrates dynamic freight pricing, cost allocation mechanisms, and game-theoretic coordination. The model captures interactions between centralized hubs and distributed processing networks, accounting for freight rate elasticity, volume allocation, and capacity constraints. Using Stackelberg game theory and cost-sharing strategies, the framework optimizes transportation efficiency and profit distribution across logistics channels. Numerical simulations show that the dual-channel structure increases centralized hub profit by 226.8% compared to baseline single-channel operations, while boosting total transported volume by 1.2% and nearly doubling freight collector profit under cost-sharing. Scenario analyses across regional infrastructures reveal that network density, policy incentives, and logistics costs shape routing efficiency and profit allocation. These findings suggest that coordinated strategies combining dynamic pricing, targeted infrastructure investment, and strategic cost allocation are needed to design efficient, resilient, and regionally adaptable e-waste transportation systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach

As part of efforts to position the United States as a leader in clean energy technology production, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued two Critical Materials Strategy reports, which assessed 16 materials on the basis of their importance to clean energy development and their supply risk ( U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2010 and DOE, 2011). To understand the implications for clean energy of disruptions in supplies of critical materials, it is important to understand supply chain dynamics from mining to final product production. As a case study of critical material supply chains, we focus on the supply of two rare earth metals, neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy), for permanent magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and other applications. We introduce GCMat, a dynamic agent-based model that includes interacting agents at five supply chain stages consisting of mining, metal refining, magnet production, final product production and demand. Agents throughout the supply chain make pricing, production and inventory management decisions. Deposit developers choose which deposits to develop based on market conditions and detailed data on 57 rare earth deposits. Wind turbine and electric vehicle producers choose from a set of possible production technologies that require different amounts of rare earths. We ran the model under a baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios with different demand and production technology inputs. Model results from 2010 to 2013 fit well with historical data. Projections through 2025 show a number of possible future price, demand, and supply trajectories. For each scenario, we highlight reasons for turning points under market conditions, for differences between Nd and Dy markets, and for differences between scenarios. Because GCMat can model causal dynamics and provide fine-grain representation of agents and their decisions, it provides explanations for turning points under market conditions that are not otherwise available from other modeling approaches. Our baseline projections show very different behaviors for Nd and Dy prices. Nd prices continue to drop and remain low even at the end of our simulation period as new capacity comes online and leads to a market in which production capacity outpaces demand. Dy price movements, on the other hand, change directions several times with several key turning points related to inventory behaviors of particular agents in the supply chain and asymmetric supply and demand trends. Scenario analyses show the impact of stronger demand growth for rare earths, and in particular finds that Nd price impacts are significantly delayed as compared to Dy. This is explained by the substantial excess production capacity for Nd in the early simulation years that keeps prices down. Scenarios that explore the impact of reducing the Dy content of magnets show the intricate interdependencies of these two markets as price trends for both rare earths reverse directions – reducing the Dy content of magnets reduces Dy demand, which drives down Dy prices and translates into lower magnet prices. This in turn raises the demand for magnets and therefore the demand for Nd and eventually drives up the Nd price.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Retrofit device to improve vapor compression cooling system performance by dynamic blower speed modulation

A device and method are provided to improve performance of a vapor compression system using a retrofittable control board to start up the vapor compression system with the evaporator blower initially set to a high speed. A baseline evaporator operating temperature with the evaporator blower operating at the high speed is recorded, and then the device detects if a predetermined acceptable change in evaporator temperature has occurred. The evaporator blower speed is reduced from the initially set high speed as long as there is only a negligible change in the measured evaporator temperature and therefore a negligible difference in the compressor's power consumption so as to obtain a net increase in the Coefficient of Performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗