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DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Soil and soil fraction radiocarbon, C and N from the Enriched Background Isotope Study, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, USA

A large accidental 14CO2 release at the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee, USA provided a strong label pulse into adjacent, well-studied oak forests, resulting in highly elevated Δ14C values in leaf litter (~1000‰) and roots (~260–450‰). A four-year manipulative study was conducted to provide insight into mechanisms underlying soil Organic matter dynamics, specifically to determine the relative contribution of litter versus roots to the bulk mineral soil C pool, as well as to free light, occluded light and heavy fractions. The heavy fraction was further split into fractions with densities of 1.7–2.4 g cm-3 and >2.4 g cm-3 to test the homogeneity of the mineral-associated fraction of C. Substantial concentrations of label were detected in all soil fractions within a year of the 14CO2 release, indicating rapid incorporation of newly fixed photosynthates in all fractions of soil organic C, regardless of differences in stability inferred by previous work. This rapid incorporation of label occurred only in treatments where roots were labeled, indicating that roots are the major source of inputs to mineral soil C stocks at these sites. Separation of the heavy fraction into subfractions of intermediate (1.7–2.4 g cm -3) and high (>2.4 g cm-3) density indicated that both subfractions incorporated label at similar rates, despite significant differences in degree of microbial processing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Inferring assembly-curving trends of bacterial micro-compartment shell hexamers from crystal structure arrangements

Bacterial microcompartments (BMC) are complex macromolecular assemblies that participate in varied chemical processes in about one fourth of bacterial species. BMC-encapsulated enzymatic activities are segregated from other cell contents by means of semipermeable shells, justifying why BMC are viewed as prototype nano-reactors for biotechnological applications. Herein, we undertook a comparative study of bending propensities of BMC hexamers (BMC-H), the most abundant shell constituents. Published data show that some BMC-H, like β -carboxysomal CcmK, tend to assemble flat whereas other BMC-H often build curved objects. Inspection of available crystal structures presenting BMC-H in tiled arrangements permitted us to identify two major assembly modes with a striking connection with experimental trends. All-atom molecular dynamics (MD) supported that BMC-H bending is triggered robustly only from the arrangement adopted in crystals by BMC-H that experimentally form curved objects, leading to very similar arrangements to those found in structures of recomposed BMC shells. Simulations on triplets of planar-behaving hexamers, which were previously reconfigured to comply with such organization, confirmed that bending propensity is mostly defined by the precise lateral positioning of hexamers, rather than by BMC-H identity. Finally, an interfacial lysine was pinpointed as the most decisive residue in controlling PduA spontaneous curvature. Globally, results presented herein should contribute to improve our understanding of the variable mechanisms of biogenesis characterized for BMC, and of possible strategies to regulate BMC size and shape.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of Modified Meshgraphnets for Subsurface Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

In the face of the increasingly dire consequences of anthropogenic climate change, capturing and storing carbon dioxide is paramount. However, several impediments exist to the safe and effective subsurface storage of CO2, such as cost of transport, identification of suitable sites for subsurface storage, and assessment of long-term risk from storage in subsurface aquifers. Accurate subsurface modeling is necessary to ensure that CO2 storage is both safe and effective. Still, such modeling has traditionally required either substantial time and computational power (numerical simulation) or a substantial amount of pre-existing data for training (machine learning models). Additionally, these models lack flexibility in dealing with both changes in discretization of the input data and generalizability beyond the data on which they are trained. In order to address these issues, this research applies graph neural networks (GNNs) to predict subsurface saturation and pressure during CO₂ injection in a model of the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP). GNNs provide a flexible, intuitive method for representing and manipulating complex unstructured data, which is often found in many practical domain problems such as fluid flow and subsurface characterization. These unstructured grids are easily represented in GNNs by representing spatially-localized features such as permeability, porosity, saturation, and pressure as nodes in a graph and relationships between these properties as edges connecting these nodes. This research applies a specific GNN model called MeshGraphNets (MGN) to model the change in CO2 saturation and pressure over a 50-month time period (36 months of injection, 14 months post-injection). The MGN model leverages a message passing process that allows the network to learn both the spatial and temporal dynamics of this system simultaneously. Additionally, training on a limited dataset (64 realizations, 20 time points each) resulted in a high degree of accuracy in saturation prediction both within the same timeframe as the training (20 months, 0.039 average RMSE) and when projecting out to the end of injection (36 months, 0.053 average RMSE). Temporal predictions such as those generated by MGNs and other similar models are prone to accumulated error over time; in order to address this, a multi-step rollout (MSR) training process was applied to calculate training loss. This method mimics the forward prediction during inference by “rolling out” multiple time points in a single training step using the previous prediction as input to the MGN model. By calculating the loss several time steps forward from the current prediction, the model is forced to find a more stable state over time. Application of MSR to the MGN model resulted in an average 15% reduction in inference error over time during forward prediction. This study showcases the immense potential of GNNs as a game-changing methodology for predicting pressure and saturation evolution in CCS projects, ultimately paving the way for more sustainable and effective carbon storage solutions. Presentation prepared for the 2024 AiChE Annual Meeting, October 27 to November 1 2024, San Diego, CA.

Holcomb, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unraveling Spatio-Temporal Chemistry Evolution in Laser Ablation Plumes and Its Relation to Initial Plasma Conditions

The chemistry evolution in a laser ablation plume depends strongly on its initial physical conditions. In this article, we investigate the impact of plasma generation conditions on the interrelated phenomena of expansion dynamics, plasma chemistry, and physical conditions. Plasmas are produced from a uranium metal target in air using nanosecond, femtosecond, and femtosecond filament-assisted laser ablation. Time-resolved two-dimensional spectral imaging was performed for evaluating the spatio-temporal evolu-tion of atoms, diatoms, polyatomic molecules, and nanoparticles in situ. Emission spectral features reveal that molecular formation occurs at early times in both femtosecond and filament ablation plumes, although with different temporal decay. In contrast, mo-lecular formation is found to occur at much later times in nanosecond plasma evolution. Spectral modeling is used to infer tem-poral behavior of plasma excitation temperature, and results highlighted that nanosecond plume temperatures decay rapidly while plumes generated by filament ablation show slowest decay. In this work, we find U atoms and UO molecules co-exist in ultrafast laser produced plasmas even at early times after plasma onset owing to favorable temperatures for molecular formation. Regardless of irradiation conditions, plume emission features showed presence of higher oxides (i.e. UxOy), although with different temporal histories. Our study provides insight into the impact of plasma generation conditions on chemistry evolution in plasmas produced from traditional focused femtosecond, nanosecond, and filament-assisted laser ablation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable and flexible non-intrusive reduced-order models using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces

This paper develops an interpretable, non-intrusive reduced-order modeling technique using regularized kernel interpolation. Existing non-intrusive approaches approximate the dynamics of a reduced-order model (ROM) by solving a data-driven least-squares regression problem for low-dimensional matrix operators. Our approach instead leverages regularized kernel interpolation, which yields an optimal approximation of the ROM dynamics from a user-defined reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We show that our kernel-based approach can produce interpretable ROMs whose structure mirrors full-order model structure by embedding judiciously chosen feature maps into the kernel. The approach is flexible and allows a combination of informed structure through feature maps and closure terms via more general nonlinear terms in the kernel. We also derive a computable a posteriori error bound that combines standard error estimates for intrusive projection-based ROMs and kernel interpolants. In conclusion, the approach is demonstrated in several numerical experiments that include comparisons to operator inference using both proper orthogonal decomposition and quadratic manifold dimension reduction.

Data-driven model reduction↗

DOE OSTI2021

TIC 168789840: A Sextuply Eclipsing Sextuple Star System

We report the discovery of a sextuply eclipsing sextuple star system from TESS data, TIC 168789840, also known as TYC 7037-89-1, the first known sextuple system consisting of three eclipsing binaries. The target was observed in Sectors 4 and 5 during Cycle 1, with lightcurves extracted from TESS Full Frame Image data. It was also previously observed by the WASP survey and ASAS-SN. The system consists of three gravitationally bound eclipsing binaries in a hierarchical structure of an inner quadruple system with an outer binary subsystem. Follow-up observations from several different observatories were conducted as a means of determining additional parameters. The system was resolved by speckle interferometry with a 0.″42 separation between the inner quadruple and outer binary, inferring an estimated outer period of ∼2 kyr. It was determined that the fainter of the two resolved components is an 8.217 day eclipsing binary, which orbits the inner quadruple that contains two eclipsing binaries with periods of 1.570 days and 1.306 days. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis of the stellar parameters has shown that the three binaries of TIC 168789840 are “triplets,” as each binary is quite similar to the others in terms of mass, radius, and T {sub eff}. As a consequence of its rare composition, structure, and orientation, this object can provide important new insight into the formation, dynamics, and evolution of multiple star systems. Future observations could reveal if the intermediate and outer orbital planes are all aligned with the planes of the three inner eclipsing binaries.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

3D characterisation and quantification of an offshore freshened groundwater system in the Canterbury Bight

Although offshore freshened groundwater (OFG) systems have been documented in numerous continental margins worldwide, their geometry, controls and emplacement dynamics remain poorly constrained. Here we integrate controlled-source electromagnetic, seismic reflection and borehole data with hydrological modelling to quantitatively characterise a previously unknown OFG system near Canterbury, New Zealand. The OFG system consists of one main, and two smaller, low salinity groundwater bodies. The main body extends up to 60 km from the coast and a seawater depth of 110 m. We attribute along-shelf variability in salinity to permeability heterogeneity due to permeable conduits and normal faults, and to recharge from rivers during sea level lowstands. A meteoric origin of the OFG and active groundwater migration from onshore are inferred. However, modelling results suggest that the majority of the OFG was emplaced via topographically-driven flow during sea level lowstands in the last 300 ka. Global volumetric estimates of OFG will be significantly revised if active margins, with steep coastal topographies like the Canterbury margin, are considered.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Block-Structured Operator Inference for Coupled Multiphysics Model Reduction

This work presents a block-structured formulation of Operator Inference as a way to learn structured reduced-order models for multiphysics systems. The approach specifies the governing equation structure for each physics component and the structure of the coupling terms. Once the multiphysics structure is specified, the reduced-order model is learned from snapshot data following the nonintrusive Operator Inference methodology. In addition to preserving physical system structure, which in turn permits preservation of system properties such as stability and second-order structure, the block-structured approach has the advantages of reducing the overall dimensionality of the learning problem and admitting tailored regularization for each physics component. The numerical advantages of the block-structured formulation over a monolithic Operator Inference formulation are demonstrated for aeroelastic analysis, which couples aerodynamic and structural models. For the benchmark test case of the AGARD 445.6 wing, block-structured Operator Inference provides an average 20% online prediction speedup over monolithic Operator Inference across subsonic and supersonic flow conditions in both the stable and fluttering parameter regimes while preserving the accuracy achieved with monolithic Operator Inference.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distributionally Robust Partially Observable Markov Decision Process with Moment-Based Ambiguity

In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust partially observable Markov decision process (DR-POMDP), where the distribution of the transition-observation probabilities is unknown at the beginning of each decision period, but their realizations can be inferred using side information at the end of each period after an action being taken. We build an ambiguity set of the joint distribution using bounded moments via conic constraints and seek an optimal policy to maximize the worst-case (minimum) reward for any distribution in the set. We show that the value function of DR-POMDP is piecewise linear convex with respect to the belief state and propose a heuristic search value iteration method for obtaining lower and upper bounds of the value function. We conduct numerical studies and demonstrate the computational performance of our approach via testing instances of a dynamic epidemic control problem. Our results show that DR-POMDP can produce more robust policies under misspecified distributions of transition-observation probabilities as compared to POMDP but has less costly solutions than robust POMDP. The DR-POMDP policies are also insensitive to varying parameter in the ambiguity set and to noise added to the true transition-observation probability values obtained at the end of each decision period.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Functional and Evolutionary Integration of a Fungal Gene With a Bacterial Operon

Abstract Siderophores are crucial for iron-scavenging in microorganisms. While many yeasts can uptake siderophores produced by other organisms, they are typically unable to synthesize siderophores themselves. In contrast, Wickerhamiella/Starmerella (W/S) clade yeasts gained the capacity to make the siderophore enterobactin following the remarkable horizontal acquisition of a bacterial operon enabling enterobactin synthesis. Yet, how these yeasts absorb the iron bound by enterobactin remains unresolved. Here, we demonstrate that Enb1 is the key enterobactin importer in the W/S-clade species Starmerella bombicola. Through phylogenomic analyses, we show that ENB1 is present in all W/S clade yeast species that retained the enterobactin biosynthetic genes. Conversely, it is absent in species that lost the ent genes, except for Starmerella stellata, making this species the only cheater in the W/S clade that can utilize enterobactin without producing it. Through phylogenetic analyses, we infer that ENB1 is a fungal gene that likely existed in the W/S clade prior to the acquisition of the ent genes and subsequently experienced multiple gene losses and duplications. Through phylogenetic topology tests, we show that ENB1 likely underwent horizontal gene transfer from an ancient W/S clade yeast to the order Saccharomycetales, which includes the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, followed by extensive secondary losses. Taken together, these results suggest that the fungal ENB1 and bacterial ent genes were cooperatively integrated into a functional unit within the W/S clade that enabled adaptation to iron-limited environments. This integrated fungal-bacterial circuit and its dynamic evolution determine the extant distribution of yeast enterobactin producers and cheaters.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A riboswitch separated from its ribosome-binding site still regulates translation

Abstract Riboswitches regulate downstream gene expression by binding cellular metabolites. Regulation of translation initiation by riboswitches is posited to occur by metabolite-mediated sequestration of the Shine-Dalgarno sequence (SDS), causing bypass by the ribosome. Recently, we solved a co-crystal structure of a prequeuosine1-sensing riboswitch from Carnobacterium antarcticum that binds two metabolites in a single pocket. The structure revealed that the second nucleotide within the gene-regulatory SDS, G34, engages in a crystal contact, obscuring the molecular basis of gene regulation. Here, we report a co-crystal structure wherein C10 pairs with G34. However, molecular dynamics simulations reveal quick dissolution of the pair, which fails to reform. Functional and chemical probing assays inside live bacterial cells corroborate the dispensability of the C10–G34 pair in gene regulation, leading to the hypothesis that the compact pseudoknot fold is sufficient for translation attenuation. Remarkably, the C. antarcticum aptamer retained significant gene-regulatory activity when uncoupled from the SDS using unstructured spacers up to 10 nucleotides away from the riboswitch—akin to steric-blocking employed by sRNAs. Accordingly, our work reveals that the RNA fold regulates translation without SDS sequestration, expanding known riboswitch-mediated gene-regulatory mechanisms. The results infer that riboswitches exist wherein the SDS is not embedded inside a stable fold.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chemical diversity in angiosperms − monoterpene synthases control complex reactions that provide the precursors for ecologically and commercially important monoterpenoids

SUMMARY Monoterpene synthases (MTSs) catalyze the first committed step in the biosynthesis of monoterpenoids, a class of specialized metabolites with particularly high chemical diversity in angiosperms. In addition to accomplishing a rate enhancement, these enzymes manage the formation and turnover of highly reactive carbocation intermediates formed from a prenyl diphosphate substrate. At each step along the reaction path, a cationic intermediate can be subject to cyclization, migration of a proton, hydride, or alkyl group, or quenching to terminate the sequence. However, enzymatic control of ligand folding, stabilization of specific intermediates, and defined quenching chemistry can maintain the specificity for forming a signature product. This review article will discuss our current understanding of how angiosperm MTSs control the reaction environment. Such knowledge allows inferences about the origin and regulation of chemical diversity, which is pertinent for appreciating the role of monoterpenoids in plant ecology but also for aiding commercial efforts that harness the accumulation of these specialized metabolites for the food, cosmetic, and pharmaceutical industries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of New Los Alamos OPLIB Opacities in Solar Modeling Using the Mesa Code

The Sun provides the only local laboratory to test our understanding of stellar physics. The production, then, of valid dynamical models of the Sun is critical to how we think about other stars. Despite improvements in modeling methodologies and abundance measurements, solar models continue to reproduce errors in convection zone depth and surface helium abundance compared to helioseismic observations. Using the 1D stellar evolution code MESAstar, this work first evaluates the effect of changes to timestep resolution and mixing length theory on model outputs. A standard test case is then constructed with both GS98 and AGSS09 abundances using OP and OPAL opacities before implementing the new Los Alamos OPLIB opacities. It is shown that, when using GS98 abundances, OPLIB opacities improve agreement with helioseismic inference of the convection zone base radius, R czb , by 1.68-σ and 1.19-σ compared to OP and OPAL, respectively, while worsening agreement with the inferred envelope helium mass fraction, Y surf , by 0.63-σ and 0.98-σ for OP and OPAL.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Old-Aged groundwater contributes to mountain hillslope hydrologic dynamics

Understanding connectivity between the soil and deeper bedrock groundwater is needed to accurately predict a watershed’s response to perturbation, such as drought. Yet, the bedrock groundwater dynamics in mountainous environments are typically under-constrained and excluded from watershed hydrologic models. Here, we investigate the role of groundwater characterized with decadal and longer water ages on the hydrologic and mass-transport processes within a steep snow-dominated mountain hillslope in the Central Rocky Mountains (USA). We quantify subsurface and surface water mass-balance, groundwater flowpaths, and age distributions using the ParFlow-CLM integrated hydrologic and EcoSLIM particle tracking models, which are compared to hydrometric and environmental tracer observations. An ensemble of models with varied soil and hydrogeologic parameters reproduces observed groundwater levels and century-scale mean ages inferred from environmental tracers. The numerical models suggest soil water near the toe of the hillslope contains considerable (>60 % of the mass-flux) contributions from bedrock flowpaths characterized with water ages >10 years. Flowpath connectivity between the deeper bedrock and soil systems is present throughout the year, highlighting the potentially critical role of groundwater with old ages on processes such as evapotranspiration and streamflow generation. The coupled numerical model and groundwater age observations show the bedrock groundwater system influences the hillslope hydrodynamics and should be considered in mountain watershed conceptual and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Inference finds consistency between a neutrino flavor evolution model and Earth-based solar neutrino measurements

We continue examining statistical data assimilation (SDA), an inference methodology, to infer solutions to neutrino flavor evolution, for the first time using real - rather than simulated - data. The model represents neutrinos streaming from the Sun's center and undergoing a Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) resonance in flavor space, due to the radially-varying electron number density. The model neutrino energies are chosen to correspond to experimental bins in the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory (SNO) and Borexino experiments, which measure electron-flavor survival probability at Earth. In conclusion, the procedure successfully finds consistency between the observed fluxes and the model, if the MSW resonance - that is, flavor evolution due to solar electrons - is included in the dynamical equations representing the model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach

Causal discovery tools enable scientists to infer meaningful relationships from observational data, spurring advances in fields as diverse as biology, economics, and climate science. Despite these successes, the application of causal discovery to space-time systems remains immensely challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the data. For example, in climate sciences, modern observational temperature records over the past few decades regularly measure thousands of locations around the globe. To address these challenges, we introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a novel meta-algorithm for discovering causal structures in complex space-time systems. CaStLe leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective. For causal discovery, CaStLe flexibly accepts any appropriately adapted time series causal discovery algorithm to recover local causal structures. These advances enable causal discovery of geophysical phenomena that were previously unapproachable, including non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes. Regularities in local space-time dependencies are transformed into informative spatial replicates, which actually improve CaStLe's performance when applied to ever-larger spatial grids. We successfully apply CaStLe to discover the atmospheric dynamics governing the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. We provide validation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of CaStLe over existing causal-discovery frameworks on a range of geophysics-inspired benchmarks while identifying the method's limitations and domains where its assumptions may not hold.

Nichol, J. Jake [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque,↗

DOE OSTI2025

Polymer Size–Catalytic Activity Relationships in Solution by Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy

Measuring the catalytic activity of specific sizes of polymers with active catalysts in solution is typically challenging, due to limited instrument detection sensitivity and/or dynamic range. Here, a fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) method is developed to determine the catalytic activity of living polymers of a specific apparent size in solution. Deviation from a single-component FCS data fitting, as assessed by χ2, is also introduced and developed as a “speciation index”—a method to evaluate and track changes in the relative amount of distinct polymer sizes with reaction progress. These methods are enabled by incorporating a selectively reactive fluorescent monomer into growing polydicyclopentadiene or polynorbornene during ring-opening metathesis polymerization (ROMP). Compared to polynorbornene, data showed that catalysts in aggregates of polyDCPD retained higher activity for longer—outcomes not directly inferable from simple diffusional-access predictions. Here, the ability to assign catalytic activity to polymers of specific sizes, and then to determine how this activity evolves with reaction progress, support long-term goals in the development and measurement of nano-objects that possess size-dependent catalytic activity.

Active catalyst↗