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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Simple Model for Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine Sizing and Performance Estimates

A Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine (RDRE) model is described which characterizes the device as an essentially infinite number of circumferentially arranged, sequentially firing pulse detonation engine (PDE) tubes. The PDE tubes are in turn treated as lumped-parameter chambers, each of which executes a dynamic (i.e. time dependent) Atkinson cycle with an allowance for a finite Mach number during the refill portion of the cycle. The formulation results in several free parameters which are used to essentially tune the model such that it closely matches higher fidelity computational fluid dynamic RDRE simulations in terms of performance, flow rates, etc. The simplicity of the model allows for straightforward combination with component models (e.g. turbopumps, cooling jackets, etc.) as well as implementation within larger vehicle simulations. Such capability allows for realistic mission analyses and benefits studies which will help to determine the best application for the RDRE concept.

detonation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploiting electricity market dynamics using flexible electrolysis units for retrofitting methanol synthesis

Here we investigate the economic viability of integrating flexible electrolysis units to produce hydrogen in methanol synthesis processes. Specifically, we investigate whether this approach can help reduce methanol production costs by strategically exploiting dynamics of electricity markets. Our study integrates high-fidelity process simulations, optimization tools, and microkinetic modeling (informed by density functional theory) to conduct detailed techno-economic analyses and to compare performance against traditional processes that use hydrogen produced via steam-methane reforming (SMR). We also use this approach to estimate the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) as a function of time-varying electricity prices (from day-ahead and real-time prices) and of key techno-economic parameters. Our results show that the proposed electrification framework is cost-competitive under certain electricity market conditions. Specifically, we find that, when the electrolysis system is operated in flexible mode (and can respond to dynamics of electricity markets), the associated electricity cost nearly collapses to zero. Conversely, when the unit is not flexible (and cannot respond to markets), the electricity cost comprises 60% of the total cost. Our results also reveal that the LCOH of the flexible electrolysis system participating in real-time electricity markets is 31% lower than the LCOH obtained from SMR. Overall, this indicates that exploiting the dynamics of electricity markets can make hydrogen production cost-competitive and this can lead to viable alternatives to electrify methanol production and other hydrogen-based processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of full-field, full-order experimental modal model of cable vibration from digital video measurements with physics-guided unsupervised machine learning and computer vision

Cables are critical components for a variety of structures such as stay cables and suspenders of cable-stayed bridges and suspension bridges. When in operational service, they are vulnerable to cumulative fatigue damage induced by dynamic loads (e.g., the cyclic vehicle loads and wind excitation). To accurately analyze and predict their dynamics behaviors and performance that could be spatially local and temporal transient, it is essential to perform high-resolution vibration measurements, from which their dynamics properties are identified and, subsequently, a high spatial resolution, full-modal-order dynamics model of cable vibration can be established. In this study, we develop a physics-guided, unsupervised machine learning-based video processing approach that can blindly and efficiently extract the full-field (as many points as the pixel number of the video frame) modal parameters of cable vibration using only the video of an operating (output-only) cable. In particular, by incorporating the physics of cable vibration (taut string model), a novel automated modal motion filtering method is proposed to enable autonomous identification of full-order (as many modes as possible) dynamic parameters, including those weakly excited modes that used to be challenging to identify in operational modal analysis. Therefore, a full-field, full-order modal model of cable vibration is established by the proposed method. Furthermore, this new approach provides a low-cost and noncontact technique to estimate the cable tension using only the video of the vibrating cable where the fundamental frequency is automatically and efficiently estimated to compute the cable tension according to the taut string equation. Laboratory experiments on a bench-scale cable are conducted to validate the developed approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Fault detection using a two-model test for changes in the parameters of an autoregressive time series

This article describes an investigation of a statistical hypothesis testing method for detecting changes in the characteristics of an observed time series. The work is motivated by the need for practical automated methods for on-line monitoring of Deep Space Network (DSN) equipment to detect failures and changes in behavior. In particular, on-line monitoring of the motor current in a DSN 34-m beam waveguide (BWG) antenna is used as an example. The algorithm is based on a measure of the information theoretic distance between two autoregressive models: one estimated with data from a dynamic reference window and one estimated with data from a sliding reference window. The Hinkley cumulative sum stopping rule is utilized to detect a change in the mean of this distance measure, corresponding to the detection of a change in the underlying process. The basic theory behind this two-model test is presented, and the problem of practical implementation is addressed, examining windowing methods, model estimation, and detection parameter assignment. Results from the five fault-transition simulations are presented to show the possible limitations of the detection method, and suggestions for future implementation are given.

Scholtz, P.↗
DOE OSTI2019

RBFNN-based Minimum Entropy Filtering for a Class of Stochastic Nonlinear Systems

This paper presents a novel minimum entropy filter design for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems which are subjected to non-Gaussian noises. Motivated by stochastic distribution control, an output entropy model is developed using RBF neural network while the parameters of the model can be identified by the collected data. Based upon the presented model, the filtering problem has been investigated while the system dynamics have been represented. As the model output is the entropy of the estimation error, the optimal nonlinear filter is obtained based on the Lyapunov design which makes the model output minimum. Moreover, the entropy assignment problem has been discussed as an extension of the presented approach. To verify the presented design procedure, a numerical example is given which illustrates the effectiveness of the presented algorithm. The contributions of this paper can be included as 1) an output entropy model is presented using neural network; 2) a nonlinear filter design algorithm is developed as the main result and 3) a solution of entropy assignment problem is obtained which is an extension of the presented framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hourly Carbon Fluxes Estimation Using the GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) Data Over the Conterminous USA

Tremendous efforts by Fluxnet scientists over the past few decades have made thousands of site-years of carbon flux observations available for advancing our understanding of carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. One of key Fluxnet measurements is net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as it is directly related to carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems. However, carbon flux estimation studies using satellite remote sensing have focused mainly on daily Gross Primary Production (GPP). The satellite based carbon flux estimation used the polar orbiting satellite sensors (e.g., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), which allow us to observe target regions only once during the day. Because daily NEE is close to zero value, the carbon flux models using the polar orbiting satellite data have not been well used for NEE estimation. The new generation of geostationary satellite sensors (e.g., GOES Advanced Baesline Imager (ABI) and Himawari Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI)) provide frequent observations, often less than every 10 minutes. Here, we use GOES ABI data to estimate hourly NEE over the conterminous USA. We used the Terrestrial Observation Prediction System (TOPS) model for estimating hourly NEE. TOPS is a diagnostic ecosystem process model that simulates the fluxes of carbon and water through vegetation in response to climate variability. For the climate input, we developed hourly climate data using the same algorithm with NASA Earth Exchange Gridded Daily Meteorology (NEX-GDM) datasets based on machine learning techniques. The hourly climate data includes precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, dew point temperature, and, in particular, solar radiation that is directly derived from the Geostationary observations. The spatial patterns of ecosystem parameters used in TOPS are optimized using satellite Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) data. The high frequency GPP estimations from geostationary satellite sensors make it comparable to the instantaneous SIF data than daily GPP. We also used Fluxnet data for optimization of model parameters and the validation of the output. The derived data addresses the diurnal dynamics of carbon cycling at large scales and should help in reducing the uncertainties in carbon budget studies.

Geostationary satellite↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Carbon Flux Model Using ABI Data Over the Conterminous US

The satellite-driven carbon flux estimation has been playing important role to estimate continental-scale carbon budget. One of the biggest recent advances in the satellite-driven carbon flux modeling is utilization of high-frequent geostationary satellites to estimate diurnal cycle in carbon fluxes. The satellite based carbon flux estimation used the polar orbiting satellite sensors (e.g., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), which allow us to observe target regions only once during the day. The new generation of geostationary satellite sensors provide frequent observations, often less than every 10 minutes. Here, we use GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data to estimate hourly NEE over the conterminous US. We used the Terrestrial Observation Prediction System (TOPS) model for estimating hourly NEE. TOPS is a diagnostic ecosystem process model that simulates the fluxes of carbon and water through vegetation in response to climate variability. For the climate input, we developed hourly climate data using the same algorithm with NASA Earth Exchange Gridded Daily Meteorology (NEX-GDM) datasets based on machine learning techniques. The hourly climate data includes precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, dew point temperature, and solar radiation were derived from the Geostationary observations. The spatial patterns of ecosystem parameters used in TOPS are optimized using satellite Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) data. The high frequency GPP estimations from geostationary satellite sensors make it comparable to the instantaneous SIF data than daily GPP. We also used Ameriflux data for optimization of model parameters and the validation of the output. The derived data addresses the diurnal dynamics of carbon cycling at large scales and should help in reducing the uncertainties in carbon budget studies.

geostationary satellite↗
DOE OSTI2019

Diffusional Dynamics of Tetraalkylphosphonium Ionic Liquid Films Measured by Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy

Fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) is enacted to investigate the diffusional dynamics of hydrophilic (Atto 590) and amphiphilic (DiD) fluorophores in a series of alkylphosphonium ionic liquid (IL) films ([P4448][Cl], [P6668][Cl], [P66614][Cl], and [P66614][NTf2]) in order to determine diffusional parameters and to elucidate nanoscale structural heterogeneities within the IL. From the measured correlation functions, the diffusion coefficients of the fluorescent molecules are estimated, rendering values that span from 0.39-1.2 and 0.146-5.2 µm2/s, for Atto 590 and DiD, respectively. A decrease in the diffusion coefficients is measured as the alkyl chain increases, coincident with a decrease in their viscosity. Interestingly, deviations from the Brownian diffusion behavior of the fluorescent probes in the ILs are observed, showing a time-dependent diffusion coefficient in most of the cases. These deviations can be attributed to the presence of nanoscale structural heterogeneities in the tetraalkylphosphonium ILs. These conclusions validate experimentally the presence of nanosegregation in tetraalkylphosphonium ILs, which has previously been observed in molecular dynamics (MD) studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1995

Aerodynamic parameter estimation via Fourier modulating function techniques

Parameter estimation algorithms are developed in the frequency domain for systems modeled by input/output ordinary differential equations. The approach is based on Shinbrot's method of moment functionals utilizing Fourier based modulating functions. Assuming white measurement noises for linear multivariable system models, an adaptive weighted least squares algorithm is developed which approximates a maximum likelihood estimate and cannot be biased by unknown initial or boundary conditions in the data owing to a special property attending Shinbrot-type modulating functions. Application is made to perturbation equation modeling of the longitudinal and lateral dynamics of a high performance aircraft using flight-test data. Comparative studies are included which demonstrate potential advantages of the algorithm relative to some well established techniques for parameter identification. Deterministic least squares extensions of the approach are made to the frequency transfer function identification problem for linear systems and to the parameter identification problem for a class of nonlinear-time-varying differential system models.

Pearson, A. E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Inferencing Model Creation and Deployment to the RASSOR Lunar Excavation Robot

The Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) Excavator is a teleoperated mobile robotic platform with a unique space regolith excavation capability. The Intelligent Capabilities Enhanced RASSOR research project developed functionality for inferencing regolith mass ingested during RASSOR operation, enhancing RASSOR’s ability to successfully complete ISRU missions. To teleoperate or run autonomously, it is crucial for the quantity of regolith mass ingested by RASSOR to be available as a system state for efficient operation. For example, during autonomous operation, RASSOR should navigate and move to a processing plant to offload the collected regolith when the drums are full; without knowledge of how much mass is in the drums, this type of high-level planning is not possible. Four distinct modeling approaches were employed in developing a mass inferencing approach that could work on RASSOR. All take in system states, such as arm/drum positions, velocities, currents, voltages, and robot pose, and output a mass prediction for each set of the robot’s bucket drums.1) A neural network model that takes a vector of normalized system states; 2) A model that uses the integrated power consumption of an arm-raise (normalized by velocity); 3) A model that uses average drum current over a variable length interval of the drum disengaged from the surface; and 4) A real-time estimation model that aggregates excavation drum current. The developed models run in real time, outputting predictions for the front and rear drums, timestamp of the last prediction, and total mass in RASSOR’s drums. Further testing is required to validate the arm-raise model (2), though initial tests indicate reasonable performance (<10% mean error) on the hardware. The linear fit of average drum-current model (3) had a front value of r^2=0.99 and a rear value of r^2=0.98 on the validation dataset. This model currently has the best performance on unseen data. The real time model (4) is still in development, though initial results on a small subset of the training data show that it has high accuracy in predicting the increase in mass during excavation. Though work remains to be done with deploying a high-fidelity model to the physical system that makes predictions with error below the desired threshold, the modular architecture for model development allows quick adjustment of parameters to increase model fidelity. This architecture can also be adapted to use lunar excavation data to create models that are reflective of RASSOR’s dynamics when operating on the lunar surface. The results are promising as it has been shown that models can be developed that accurately estimate excavated regolith mass.

rassor↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Performance Enhancement for Nonlinear Stochastic Systems Using RBF Driven Nonlinear Compensation with Extended Kalman Filter

In this paper, a novel hybrid control method is proposed to enhance the control performance of the PI based control system for a class of nonlinear and non-Gaussian stochastic dynamic processes with unmeasurable states. Firstly, to enhance the tracking performance of the PI controller where the PI parameters are fixed in many actual control systems, the compensative signal is formed using the extended Kalman filter(EKF) based state estimator and driven by the radial basis function (RBF) neural network based compensator. In addition, the weights of RBF is trained to minimize the entropy criterion of tracking error as the process is subjected to non-Gaussian disturbances. Meanwhile, since the precise statistical property of noises is hard to obtain for many industrial processes, the kernel density estimation (KDE) technique is employed in this paper to estimate the entropy. The convergence of RBF network is discussed and the stability of the resulted closed-loop hybrid control system is analyzed in mean square sense. Finally, a numerical example and a practical system testing are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

stochastic systems, PI Controller, Entropy, Extend↗
DOE OSTI2021

PRIME

SAND2021-0565 O PRIME is a modeling framework designed for the real-time characterization and forecasting of partially observed epidemics. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The framework can accommodate multiple epidemic waves and can help identify different disease dynamics at the regional, state, and country levels. Examples are provided using publicly available COVID-19 data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The MASSIVE Survey. XVI. The Stellar Initial Mass Function in the Center of MASSIVE Early-type Galaxies

The stellar initial mass function (IMF) is a fundamental property in the measurement of stellar masses and galaxy star formation histories. In this work, we focus on the most massive galaxies in the nearby universe $\mathrm{log}({M}_{\star }/\,{M}_{\odot })\gt 11.2$. We obtain high-quality Magellan/LDSS-3 long-slit spectroscopy with a wide wavelength coverage of 0.4–1.01 μm for 41 early-type galaxies (ETGs) in the MASSIVE survey and derive high signal-to-noise spectra within an aperture of R e /8. Using detailed stellar synthesis models, we constrain the elemental abundances and stellar IMF of each galaxy through full spectral modeling. All the ETGs in our sample have an IMF that is steeper than a Milky Way (Kroupa) IMF. The best-fit IMF mismatch parameter, α IMF = (M/L)/(M/L) MW , ranges from 1.1 to 3.1, with an average of $\langle$α IMF $\rangle$ = 1.84, suggesting that on average, the IMF is more bottom heavy than Salpeter. Comparing the estimated stellar masses with the dynamical masses, we find that most galaxies have stellar masses that are smaller than their dynamical masses within the 1σ uncertainty. We complement our sample with lower-mass galaxies from the literature and confirm that $\mathrm{log}({\alpha }_{\mathrm{IMF}})$ is positively correlated with $\mathrm{log}(\sigma )$, $\mathrm{log}({M}_{\star })$, and $\mathrm{log}({M}_{\mathrm{dyn}})$. From the combined sample, we show that the IMF in the centers of more massive ETGs is more bottom heavy. In addition, we find that $\mathrm{log}({\alpha }_{\mathrm{IMF}})$ is positively correlated with both [Mg/Fe] and the estimated total metallicity [Z/H]. We find suggestive evidence that the effective stellar surface density Σ Kroupa might be responsible for the variation of α IMF . We conclude that σ, [Mg/Fe], and [Z/H] are the primary drivers of the global stellar IMF variation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Mission Analysis Program for Solar Electric Propulsion (MAPSEP). Volume 2: User's manual for earth orbital MAPSEP

The trajectory simulation mode (SIMSEP) requires the namelist SIMSEP to follow TRAJ. The SIMSEP contains parameters which describe the scope of the simulation, expected dynamic errors, and cumulative statistics from previous SIMSEP runs. Following SIMSEP are a set of GUID namelists, one for each guidance correction maneuver. The GUID describes the strategy, knowledge or estimation uncertainties and cumulative statistics for that particular maneuver. The trajectory display mode (REFSEP) requires only the namelist TRAJ followed by scheduling cards, similar to those used in GODSEP. The fixed field schedule cards define: types of data displayed, span of interest, and frequency of printout. For those users who can vary the amount of blank common storage in their runs, a guideline to estimate the total MAPSEP core requirements is given. Blank common length is related directly to the dimension of the dynamic state (NDIM) used in transition matrix (STM) computation, and, the total augmented (knowledge) state (NAUG). The values of program and blank common must be added to compute the total decimal core for a CDC 6500. Other operating systems must scale these requirements appropriately.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1975

Sequential filtering applied to the determination of tracking station locations

The extended sequential filter has been applied to the problem of dynamically determining the geocentric coordinates of two laser satellite tracking stations. This filter provides significant advantages over the classical batch methods through (1) fewer iterations required for convergence, (2) wider radius of convergence, and (3) availability of the parameter estimate evolution. Processing the data sequentially readily identifies the data arcs required to minimize the effects of geopotential model errors. By means of the Smithsonian standard earth 2 and the Goddard earth model 1 geopotentials to reduce laser range observations of the Beacon Explorer-C satellite, it is demonstrated that a two-pass arc is optimal for estimating the height of one station and all coordinates of the second station while minimizing the effect of geopotential model error. These two-pass estimates are in good agreement with other determinations that utilize considerably more data as well as different satellites.

Schutz, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Experiment design for pilot identification in compensatory tracking tasks

A design criterion for input functions in laboratory tracking tasks resulting in efficient parameter estimation is formulated. The criterion is that the statistical correlations between pairs of parameters be reduced in order to minimize the problem of nonuniqueness in the extraction process. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated for a lower order dynamic system.

Wells, W. R.↗