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NASA NTRS1999

Data Assimilation in the Presence of Forecast Bias: The GEOS Moisture Analysis

We describe the application of the unbiased sequential analysis algorithm developed by Dee and da Silva (1998) to the GEOS DAS moisture analysis. The algorithm estimates the persistent component of model error using rawinsonde observations and adjusts the first-guess moisture field accordingly. Results of two seasonal data assimilation cycles show that moisture analysis bias is almost completely eliminated in all observed regions. The improved analyses cause a sizable reduction in the 6h-forecast bias and a marginal improvement in the error standard deviations.

Dee, Dick P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

NEAT: A Microarcsec Astrometric Telescope

NEAT, Nearby Exo-Earth Astrometric Telescope is a medium-small telescope ~ 1m in diameter that is designed to make ultra precise < 1 uas (microarcsec) astrometric measurements of nearby stars in a ~ 1hr observation. Four major error sources prevent normal space telescopes from obtaining accuracies close to 1 uas. Even with a small 1m telescope, photon noise is usually not a problem for the bright nearby target stars. But in general, the reference stars are much fainter. Typically a field of view of ~0.5 deg dia is needed to obtain enough bright reference stars. The NEAT concept uses a very simple but unusual design to avoid optically induced astrometric errors. The third source of error is the accuracy and stability of the focal plane. A 1uas error over a ~2000 arcsec field of view implies the focal plane is accurate or at least stable to 5 parts in 1010 over the lifetime of the mission (~5yrs). The 4th class of error has to do with our knowledge of the PSF and how that PSF is sampled by an imperfect detector. A Nyquist sampled focal plane would have > 2 pixels per ?/D, and centroiding to 1uas means centroiding to 10-5 pixels. This paper describes the mission concept, and an overview of the technology needed to perform 1uas astrometry with a small telescope, and how we overcome problems 1 and 2. A companion paper will describe the technical progress we've made in solving problems 3 and 4.

interferometry↗

NASA NTRS2006

Constraining Numerical Geodynamo Modeling with Surface Observations

Numerical dynamo solutions have traditionally been generated entirely by a set of self-consistent differential equations that govern the spatial-temporal variation of the magnetic field, velocity field and other fields related to dynamo processes. In particular, those solutions are obtained with parameters very different from those appropriate for the Earth s core. Geophysical application of the numerical results therefore depends on correct understanding of the differences (errors) between the model outputs and the true states (truth) in the outer core. Part of the truth can be observed at the surface in the form of poloidal magnetic field. To understand these differences, or errors, we generate new initial model state (analysis) by assimilating sequentially the model outputs with the surface geomagnetic observations using an optimal interpolation scheme. The time evolution of the core state is then controlled by our MoSST core dynamics model. The final outputs (forecasts) are then compared with the surface observations as a means to test the success of the assimilation. We use the surface geomagnetic data back to year 1900 for our studies, with 5-year forecast and 20-year analysis periods. We intend to use the result; to understand time variation of the errors with the assimilation sequences, and the impact of the assimilation on other unobservable quantities, such as the toroidal field and the fluid velocity in the core.

Kuang, Weijia↗

NASA NTRS1989

Methods for local gravity field approximation

The most widely known modern method for estimating gravity field values from observed data is least-squares collocation. Its advantages are that it can make estimates at arbitrary locations based on irregularly spaced observations, and that it makes use of statistical information about errors in the input data while providing corresponding information about the quality of the output estimates. Disadvantages of collocation include the necessity of inverting square matrices of dimension equal to the number of data values and the need to assume covariance models for the gravity field and the data errors. Fourier methods are an important alternative to collocation; having the advantage of greater computational efficiency, but requiring data estimates to be on a regular grid and not using or providing statistical accuracy information. The GEOFAST algorithm is an implementation of collocation that achieves high computational efficiency by transforming the estimation equations into the frequency domain where an accurate approximation may be made to reduce the workload. The forward and inverse Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs) are utilized. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the GEOFAST algorithm is demonstrated using two sets of synthetic gravity data: marine gravity for an ocean trench region including wavelengths longer than 200 km; and local land gravity containing wavelengths as short as 5 km. These results are discussed along with issues such as the advantages of first removing reference field models before carrying out the estimation algorithm.

Sailor, R. V.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A four-dimensional analysis exactly satisfying equations of motion

A four-dimensional analysis is applied to spectral nonlinear models of the atmosphere. The experiment reveals that the four-dimensional analysis errors are smaller than measurement errors, the method is stable in an assimilation cycle, and an accurate estimate of the velocity field is maintained using only temperature observations. It is concluded that the four-dimensional analyses display rapid initial error growth and therefore are better than ordinary forecasts from observations for only the first 24 hours.

Hoffman, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Accuracy assessment report phase 1A, November - December 1974

The author has identified the following significant results. Results of the accuracy assessment activity for Phase IA of LACIE indicated that (1) The 90/90 criteria could be reached if the degree of accuracy of the LACIE performance in Kansas could be equaled in other areas. (2) The classification of both wheat and nonwheat fields was significantly accurate for the three ITS segments analyzed. The wheat field classification accuracy varied for the segments. However, this was not so with respect to nonwheat fields. (3) Biophase as well as its interaction with segment location turned out to be an important factor for the classification performance. Analyst interpretation of segments for training the classifier was a significant error-contributing factor in the estimation of wheat acreage at both the field and the segment levels.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1998

Vertical Distribution of Saharan Dust from the Goddard Three Dimensional Transport Model: Comparison with LITE Data

Spatial distributions of Saharan dust are simulated by the Goddard 3D chemistry transport model driven by meteorological fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, GEOS-2 DAS. An aerosol module accounts for gravitational settling and the aerosol source function is based on surface moisture content and wind speed. The simulated aerosol fields are compared with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) by P. Ginoux in this session. The main focus is how ventilation of the assimilation winds will impact the simulated aerosol vertical distribution. Excessive ventilation would transport too much aerosol in the upper troposphere and lead to errors in the long range transport as well as errors in any radiative forcing calculations derived from the simulated aerosol fields. Simulated aerosol fields using GEOS-1 DAS wind fields for September 1994 will be compared with lidar observations during the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE). The lidar return signal clearly delineates the vertical extent and horizontal variability of the aerosol layer allowing rigorous comparison with the simulated fields. A second focus is the simulation of aerosol scavenging due to moist processes. Three-dimensional precipitation fields can be derived from two possible sources: Assimilated precipitation fields from GEOS-DAS or fields obtained from the Special Sensor Microwave/imager (SSM/1). Of interest is the sensitivity of the modeled aerosol fields to the different precipitation fields driving the moist scavenging module.

Weaver, Clark J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Discovery of a Be/X-Ray Binary Consistent with the Location of GRO J2058+42

GRO J2058+42 is a 195 s transient X-ray pulsar discovered in 1995 with BATSE. In 1996, RXTE located GRO J2058+42 to a 90% confidence error circle with a 4 radius. On 2004 February 20, the region including the error circle was observed with Chandra ACIS-I. No X-ray sources were detected within the error circle; however, two faint sources were detected in the ACIS-I field of view. We obtained optical observations of the brightest object, CXOU J205847.5+414637, which had about 64 X-ray counts and was just 013 outside the error circle. The optical spectrum contains a strong Ha line and corresponds to an inhued object in the Two Micron All Sky Survey catalog, indicating a Be/X-ray binary system. Pulsations were not detected in the Chandra observations, but similar flux variations and distance estimates suggest that CXOU J205847.5+414637 and GRO J2058+42 are the same object. We present results from the Chandra observation, optical observations, new and previously unreported RXTE observations, and a reanalysis of a ROSAT observation.

Wilson, Colleen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dense Feature Tracking of Atmospheric Winds with Deep Optical Flow

Atmospheric winds are a key physical phenomenon impacting natural hazards, energy transport, ocean currents, large-scale circulation, and ecosystem fluxes. Observing winds is a complex process and presents a large gap in NASA’s Earth Observation System. Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) aim to fill this gap by making numerical estimates of cloud movement between sequences of multi-spectral satellite images, tracking clouds and water vapor. Recent imaging hardware and software advancements have enabled the use of numerical optical flow techniques to produce accurate and dense vector fields outperforming traditional methods. This work presents WindFlow as the first machine learning based system for feature tracking atmospheric motion using optical flow. Due to the lack of large-scale satellite-based observations, we leverage high-resolution numerical simulations from NASA's GEOS-5 Nature Run to perform supervised learning and transfer to satellite images. We demonstrate that our approach using deep learning based optical flow scales to ultra-high-resolution images of size 2881x5760 with less than 1 m/s bias and 2.5 m/s average error. Four network and learning architectures are compared and it is found that recurrent all-pairs field transforms (RAFT) produces the lowest errors on all metrics for wind speed and direction. Results on held out numerical outputs shows RAFT's good performance in each of the spatial, temporal, and physical dimensions. A comparison between WindFlow and an operational AMV product against rawinsonde observations show that RAFT transfers across simulations and thermal infrared satellite observations. This work shows that machine learning based optical flow is an efficient approach to generating robust feature tracking for AMVs consistently over large regions.

Atmospheric winds↗

NASA NTRS1972

Photometry of late type stars

Broad band filter photometry for 57 bright stars of spectral type A2 discussed with peak instrument responses at 3320, 2980, 2460 and 1910 A. The data include nearly all usable filter observations of G, K and M types. Sampling is nearly complete for A and F giants and supergiants, with the exception of Cepheid variables. The basic results presented are relative digital counting rates obtained with a field-stop aperture of 10 minutes of arc. Characteristics of the four filter-photometer combinations and errors are discussed. Some observations require substantial correction if they are to represent the visually brightest star in the field. These corrections and the effects of interstellar reddening are discussed. The adjusted counts are then used to construct color-color diagrams and are compared to the recent SAO grid of model atmospheres.

Doherty, L. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

PPM demodulation for Reed-Solomon decoding for the optical space channel

The use of Reed-Solomon (RS) block codes over the pulse position modulated (PPM) frames to obtain the largest degree of error correction is considered. Since RS codes can correct both symbol errors and symbol erasures, a question arises as to the best way to demodulate the PPM laser fields in order to generate the input symbols for the RS decoder. The method selected for demodulating (converting the received laser field to digital symbols) defines the erasure and transmitted symbols of the laser link, and therefore determines the work error probabilities of the system. Several demodulating schemes are considered, and the effect of each on RS decoding performance computed. This computation was carried out for various optical receiver models. It is shown that simple threshold decisioning of pulse slots produces performance that degrades as the background noise increases. This is caused by the generation of too many erasures for the RS decoder to handle. A decision scheme, delta-max demodulation which offers improvement over threshold decisioning by redefining the generation of an erasure is proposed.

Divsalar, D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A new probe for measuring small electric fields in plasmas

A dipolar double probe has been developed for in situ measurements of small electric fields in laboratory plasmas. The probe measures dc to ac electric fields (f values between 0 and 20 MHz) with high sensitivity (Emin about 10 microV/cm) and responds to both space charge electric fields and inductive electric fields. Using voltage-to-frequency conversion, the probe signal is obtained free of errors and loading effects by a transmission line. Various examples of useful applications for the new probe are presented, such as measurements of dc ambipolar fields, ac space-charge fields of ion acoustic waves, ac inductive fields of whistler waves, and mixed inductive and space-charge electric fields in current-carrying magnetoplasmas.

Stenzel, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1971

The closure approximation in the hierarchy equations.

The expectation of the solution process in a stochastic operator equation can be obtained from averaged equations only under very special circumstances. Conditions for validity are given and the significance and validity of the approximation in widely used hierarchy methods and the ?self-consistent field' approximation in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics are clarified. The error at any level of the hierarchy can be given and can be avoided by the use of the iterative method.

Adomian, G.↗

NASA NTRS1972

The resolution of point sources of light as analyzed by quantum detection theory

The resolvability of point sources of incoherent light is analyzed by quantum detection theory in terms of two hypothesis-testing problems. In the first, the observer must decide whether there are two sources of equal radiant power at given locations, or whether there is only one source of twice the power located midway between them. In the second problem, either one, but not both, of two point sources is radiating, and the observer must decide which it is. The decisions are based on optimum processing of the electromagnetic field at the aperture of an optical instrument. In both problems the density operators of the field under the two hypotheses do not commute. The error probabilities, determined as functions of the separation of the points and the mean number of received photons, characterize the ultimate resolvability of the sources.

Helstrom, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Resolution of point sources of light as analyzed by quantum detection theory.

The resolvability of point sources of incoherent thermal light is analyzed by quantum detection theory in terms of two hypothesis-testing problems. In the first, the observer must decide whether there are two sources of equal radiant power at given locations, or whether there is only one source of twice the power located midway between them. In the second problem, either one, but not both, of two point sources is radiating, and the observer must decide which it is. The decisions are based on optimum processing of the electromagnetic field at the aperture of an optical instrument. In both problems the density operators of the field under the two hypotheses do not commute. The error probabilities, determined as functions of the separation of the points and the mean number of received photons, characterize the ultimate resolvability of the sources.

Helstrom, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Cloud cover from high-resolution scanner data - Detecting and allowing for partially filled fields of view

A new technique is presented for obtaining cloud cover and determining clear sky radiances using high-resolution IR scanner data. The technique, which can be automated, employs the spatial structure of the IR radiance field to identify radiances associated with fields of view that are either free of clouds or completely covered by clouds drawn from one or more distinct layers. The approach is particularly well-suited for determining clear sky radiances over oceans from which sea surface temperatures may be derived. In addition, for single-layered systems, the cloud cover fraction for a given region may be obtained from the clear sky radiance, the completely cloud-covered radiance, and the mean radiance for the region. For such systems the separation of completely covered from partially covered fields of view makes it possible to estimate the errors associated with commonly used threshold techniques for determining cloud cover.

Coakley, J. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Three-dimensional Navier-Stokes calculations of multiple interacting vortex rings

Results from a finite-difference Navier-Stokes code for three-dimensional, unsteady, vortical flows in unbounded domains are presented and analyzed in this paper. The vortical flows presented are representative of vortex rings and other closed vortical tubes or structures in fluid mechanics. Such structures are important elements in fluid flows such as jets, atmospheric turbulence, and the far-field wakes of aircraft, and studies of their interaction may aid in an understanding of complex fluid flows. The paper demonstrates that computational methods can be used as a viable alternative or supplement to experimental techniques for studying the physics of vortex flows. The separate visualization of vortex stretching, convection, and diffusion is presented in this paper for a single elliptical vortex ring.The calculations employ a truncated series expansion technique to simulate the unbounded nature of the fluid flow with a finite computational domain, which is a more accurate technique than the conventional freestream boundary specification. The numerical divergence of the three-dimensional vorticity field is considered as a useful estimate of truncation error, and the use of a kinetic energy decay law as a calculation check is demonstrated. Results from the Navier-Stokes code are presented for the unsteady motion of two and four vortex rings along parallel axes, and the results agree qualitatively with experimental flow visualization.

Chamberlain, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Data and results of a laboratory investigation of microprocessor upset caused by simulated lightning-induced analog transients

Advanced composite aircraft designs include fault-tolerant computer-based digital control systems with thigh reliability requirements for adverse as well as optimum operating environments. Since aircraft penetrate intense electromagnetic fields during thunderstorms, onboard computer systems maya be subjected to field-induced transient voltages and currents resulting in functional error modes which are collectively referred to as digital system upset. A methodology was developed for assessing the upset susceptibility of a computer system onboard an aircraft flying through a lightning environment. Upset error modes in a general-purpose microprocessor were studied via tests which involved the random input of analog transients which model lightning-induced signals onto interface lines of an 8080-based microcomputer from which upset error data were recorded. The application of Markov modeling to upset susceptibility estimation is discussed and a stochastic model development.

Belcastro, C. M.↗