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At least 577 records · Page 32

Fractionation of terrestrial neon by hydrodynamic hydrogen escape from ancient steam atmospheres

Atmospheric neon is isotopically heavier than mantle neon. By contrast, nonradiogenic mantle Ar, Kr, and Xe are not known to differ from the atmosphere. These observations are most easily explained by selective neon loss to space; however, neon is much too massive to escape from the modern atmosphere. Steam atmospheres are a likely, if intermittent, feature of the accreting Earth. They occur because, on average, the energy liberated during accretion places Earth above the runaway greenhouse threshold, so that liquid water is not stable at the surface. It is found that steam atmospheres should have lasted some ten to fifty million years. Hydrogen escape would have been vigorous, but abundant heavy constituents would have been retained. There is no lack of plausible candidates; CO2, N2, or CO could all suffice. Neon can escape because it is less massive than any of the likely pollutants. Neon fractionation would have been a natural byproduct. Assuming that the initial Ne-20/Ne-22 ratio was solar, it was found that it would have taken some ten million years to effect the observed neon fractionation in a 30 bar steam atmosphere fouled with 10 bars of CO. Thicker atmospheres would have taken longer; less CO, shorter. This mechanism for fractionating neon has about the right level of efficiency. Because the lighter isotope escapes much more readily, total neon loss is pretty minimal; less than half of the initial neon endowment escapes.

Zahnle, K.↗

Reduced phenylalanine ammonia-lyase and tyrosine ammonia-lyase activities and lignin synthesis in wheat grown under low pressure sodium lamps

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv Fremont) grown in hydroponic culture under 24-hour continuous irradiation at 560 to 580 micromoles per square meter per second from either metalhalide (MH), high pressure sodium (HPS), or low pressure sodium (LPS) lamps reached maturity in 70 days. Grain yields were similar under all three lamps, although LPS-grown plants lodged at maturity. Phenylalanine ammonia-lyase (PAL) and a tyrosine ammonia lyase (TAL) with lesser activity were detected in all extracts of leaf, inflorescence, and stem. Ammonia-lyase activities increased with age of the plant, and plants grown under the LPS lamp displayed PAL and TAL activities lower than wheat cultured under MH and HPS radiation. Greenhouse solar-grown wheat had the highest PAL and TAL activities. Lignin content of LPS-grown wheat was also significantly reduced from that of plants grown under MH or HPS lamps or in the greenhouse, showing a correlation with the reduced PAL and TAL activities. Ratios of far red-absorbing phytochrome to total phytochrome were similar for all three lamps, but the data do not yet warrant a conclusion about specific wavelengths missing from the LPS lamps that might have induced PAL and TAL activities in plants under the other lamps.

Triticum/enzymology/growth & development/metabolis↗

Using NASA Techniques to Atmospherically Correct AWiFS Data for Carbon Sequestration Studies

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas emitted in a number of ways, including the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of forest to agriculture. Research has begun to quantify the ability of vegetative land cover and oceans to absorb and store carbon dioxide. The USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) Forest Service is currently evaluating a DSS (decision support system) developed by researchers at the NASA Ames Research Center called CASA-CQUEST (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach-Carbon Query and Evaluation Support Tools). CASA-CQUEST is capable of estimating levels of carbon sequestration based on different land cover types and of predicting the effects of land use change on atmospheric carbon amounts to assist land use management decisions. The CASA-CQUEST DSS currently uses land cover data acquired from MODIS (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), and the CASA-CQUEST project team is involved in several projects that use moderate-resolution land cover data derived from Landsat surface reflectance. Landsat offers higher spatial resolution than MODIS, allowing for increased ability to detect land use changes and forest disturbance. However, because of the rate at which changes occur and the fact that disturbances can be hidden by regrowth, updated land cover classifications may be required before the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission, and consistent classifications will be needed after that time. This candidate solution investigates the potential of using NASA atmospheric correction techniques to produce science-quality surface reflectance data from the Indian Remote Sensing Advanced Wide-Field Sensor on the RESOURCESAT-1 mission to produce land cover classification maps for the CASA-CQUEST DSS.

Holekamp, Kara L.↗

The East and Southeast Asia Initiatives: Aerosol Column Measurements

Airborne dusts from northern China contribute a significant part of the air quality problem and, to some extent, regional climatic impact in Asia during spring- time. However, with the economical growth in China, increases in the emission of air pollutants generated from industrial and vehicular sources will not only impact the radiation balance, but adverse health effects to humans all year round. In addition, both of these dust and air pollution clouds can transport swiftly across the Pacific reaching North America within a few days, possessing an even larger scale effect. The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites (e.g., MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS, etc.) and its evolution monitored by satellites and surface network. Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the unique climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3,Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning processes. These gases influence the Earth- atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play an important role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, hence, altering the earth's radiation and water budget. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds from the soil to the atmosphere; the hydrological cycle (i.e., run off and evaporation); land surface reflectivity and emissivity; as well as ecosystem biodiversity and stability. Two new initiatives, EAST-AIRE (East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: an International Regional Experiment) and BASE-ASIA (Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment) will be presented and discussed their contribution to better understand the impacts of aerosols on regional-to- global climate, hydrological and carbon cycles, and tropospheric chemistry.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

Dust, Pollution, and Biomass Burning Aerosols in Asian Pacific: A Column Satellite-Surface Perspective

Airborne dusts from northern China contribute a significant part of the air quality problem and, to some extent, regional climatic impact in Asia during spring-time. However, with the economical growth in China, increases in the emission of air pollutants generated from industrial and vehicular sources will not only impact the radiation balance, but adverse health effects to humans all year round. In addition, both of these dust and air pollution clouds can transport swiftly across the Pacific reaching North America within a few days, possessing an even larger scale effect. The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites (e.g., MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS, etc.) and its evolution monitored by satellites and surface network. Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the unique climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning processes. These gases influence the Earth-atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play an important role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, hence, altering the earth's radiation and water budget. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds from the soil to the atmosphere; the hydrological cycle (i.e., run off and evaporation); land surface reflectivity and emissivity; as well as ecosystem biodiversity and stability. Two new initiatives, EAST-AIRE (East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: an International Regional Experiment) and BASE-ASIA (Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment) will be presented and discussed their contribution to better understand the impacts of aerosols on regional-to-global climate, hydrological and carbon cycles, and tropospheric chemistry.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

Water Vapour Adjustments and Responses Differ Between Climate Drivers

Water vapour in the atmosphere is the source of a major climate feedback mechanism and potential increases in the availability of water vapour could have important consequences for mean and extreme precipitation. Future precipitation changes further depend on how the hydrological cycle responds to different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. Currently, neither the total anthropogenic influence on the hydrological cycle nor that from individual drivers is constrained sufficiently to make solid projections. We investigate how integrated water vapour (IWV) responds to different drivers of climate change. Results from 11 global climate models have been used, based on simulations where CO2, methane, solar irradiance, black carbon (BC), and sulfate have been perturbed separately. While the global-mean IWV is usually assumed to increase by 7% per kelvin of surface temperature change, we find that the feedback response of IWV differs somewhat between drivers. Fast responses, which include the initial radiative effect and rapid adjustments to an external forcing, amplify these differences. The resulting net changes in IWV range from 6.4±0.9%K(exp -1) for sulfate to 9.8±2%K(exp -1) for BC. We further calculate the relationship between global changes in IWV and precipitation, which can be characterized by quantifying changes in atmospheric water vapour lifetime. Global climate models simulate a substantial increase in the lifetime, from 8.2±0.5 to 9.9±0.7d between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 under a high-emission scenario, and we discuss to what extent the water vapour lifetime provides additional information compared to analysis of IWV and precipitation separately. We conclude that water vapour lifetime changes are an important indicator of changes in precipitation patterns and that BC is particularly efficient in prolonging the mean time, and therefore likely the distance, between evaporation and precipitation.

Hodnebrog, Øivind↗

Scientific and Technical Assistance for the Deployment of a Flexible Airborne Spectrometer System During C-MAPExp and COMEX: COMEX Version - 1.9T

The COMEX (CO2 and MEthane eXperiment) campaign supports the mission definition of CarbonSat and HyspIRI (Hyperspectral Infrared Imager) by providing representative airborne remote sensing data ‐ MAMAP (Methane Airborne MAPper) for CarbonSat; the Airborne Visual InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (Classic & Next Generation) AVIRIS‐C/AVIRIS‐NG for HyspIRI ‐ as well as ground-based and airborne in‐situ data. The objectives of the COMEX campaign activities are (see Campaign Implementation Plan (RD‐4)): 1. Investigate spatial/spectral resolution trade‐offs for CH4 anomaly detection and flux inversion by comparison of MAMAP‐derived emission estimates with AVIRIS/AVIRIS‐NG derived data. 2. Evaluate sun‐glint observation geometry on CH4 retrievals for marine sources. 3. Characterize the effect of Surface Spectral Reflectance (SSR) heterogeneity on trace gas retrievals of CO2 and CH4 for medium and low‐resolution spectrometry. 4. Identify benefits from joint SWIR/TIR (ShortWave InfraRed/Thermal InfraRed ) data for trace gas detection and retrieval by comparison of MAMAP and AVIRIS/AVIRIS‐NG NIR/SWIR data with MAKO (Aerospace Corp.)TIR data. The ability to derive emission source strength for a range of strong emitting targets by remote sensing will be evaluated from combined AVIRIS‐NG and MAMAP data, adding significant value to the HyspIRI campaign AVIRIS‐NG dataset. The data will be used to quantify anomalies in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 from strong local greenhouse gas sources e.g. localized industrial complexes, landfills, etc. and to derive CO2 and CH4 emissions estimates from atmospheric gradient measurements. The original campaign concept was developed by University of Bremen and BRI. The COMEX campaign is funded bilaterally by NASA and ESA (European Space Agency). Whereas NASA funds the US part of the project via a contract with Dr. Ira Leifer, BRI (Bubbleology Research International), the contribution of MAMAP to the COMEX campaign is funded by ESA within the COMEX‐E project and NASA with respect to a 50 percent contribution to the flight-related costs of flying MAMAP on a US aircraft. The Data Acquisition Report (RD‐9) describes the instrumentation used, the measurements made by the team during the COMEX campaign in May/June 2014 and August/September 2014 in California, and an initial assessment of the data quality.

Point Sources↗

Predicting Decade-to-Century Climate Change: Prospects for Improving Models

Recent research has led to a greatly increased understanding of the uncertainties in today's climate models. In attempting to predict the climate of the 21st century, we must confront not only computer limitations on the affordable resolution of global models, but also a lack of physical realism in attempting to model key processes. Until we are able to incorporate adequate treatments of critical elements of the entire biogeophysical climate system, our models will remain subject to these uncertainties, and our scenarios of future climate change, both anthropogenic and natural, will not fully meet the requirements of either policymakers or the public. The areas of most-needed model improvements are thought to include air-sea exchanges, land surface processes, ice and snow physics, hydrologic cycle elements, and especially the role of aerosols and cloud-radiation interactions. Of these areas, cloud-radiation interactions are known to be responsible for much of the inter-model differences in sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Recently, we have diagnostically evaluated several current and proposed model cloud-radiation treatments against extensive field observations. Satellite remote sensing provides an indispensable component of the observational resources. Cloud-radiation parameterizations display a strong sensitivity to vertical resolution, and we find that vertical resolutions typically used in global models are far from convergence. We also find that newly developed advanced parameterization schemes with explicit cloud water budgets and interactive cloud radiative properties are potentially capable of matching observational data closely. However, it is difficult to evaluate the realism of model-produced fields of cloud extinction, cloud emittance, cloud liquid water content and effective cloud droplet radius until high-quality measurements of these quantities become more widely available. Thus, further progress will require a combination of theoretical and modeling research, together with intensified emphasis on both in situ and space-based remote sensing observations.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗

Tropical Tropopause Structure and Processes as Observed with GPS Radio Occultation

The vertical temperature structure of the tropical atmosphere has been explained as controlled by the combined effect of three green house gases: water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone. Absorption by water vapor of the light reflected off the Earth's surface would determine the temperature lapse rate in the lower troposphere up to the bottom of the Tropical Transition Layer (TTL); radiative absorption by carbon dioxide would dominate the temperature lapse rate between the bottom of the TTL and the coldest point in the upper-troposphere, the cold point tropopause (CPT), and; absorption of incoming solar radiation by ozone would control the temperature above the CPT. The TTL region can thus be very sensitive to changes in the relative abundances of these greenhouse gases. In this contribution we describe the seasonal evolution of temperature profiles in the TTL and their longitudinal structure using GPS radio occultation.

global positioning system (GPS)↗

Interesting Scientific Questions Regarding Interactions in the Gas-aerosol-cloud System

The growth of human population and their use of land, food and energy resources affect the Earth's atmosphere, biosphere and oceans in a complex manner. Many important questions in earth sciences today deal with issues regarding the impact of human activities on our immediate and future environment, ranging in scope from local (i.e. air pollution) to global (i.e. global warming) scale problems. Because the mass of the Earth's atmosphere is negligible compare to that found in the oceans and the biosphere, the atmosphere can respond quickly to natural and/or manmade perturbations. For example, seasonal 'ozone hole' formation in the Antarctic is a result of manmade CFC emissions in just the last 40 years. Also, the observed rise in global temperatures (known as global warming) is linked to a rapid increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas concentrations (emitted primarily by combustion processes) over the last century. The Earth's atmosphere is composed of a mixture of gases, aerosol and cloud particles. Natural and anthropogenic emissions of gases and aerosols affect the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Changes in the chemical and physical makeup of the atmosphere can influence how the Earth will interact with the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing infrared radiation and vise versa. While, some perturbations are short-lived, others are long-lived and can affect the Earth's global climate and chemistry in many decades to come, In order to be able to separate the natural effects from anthropogenic ones, it is essential that we understand the basic physics and chemistry of interactions in the gas-aerosol-cloud system in the Earth's atmosphere. The important physics and chemistry that takes place in the coupled gas-aerosol-cloud system as it relates to aircraft observations are discussed.

Tabazadeh, Azadeh↗

Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought

The possibility that the greenhouse warming predicted by the GISS general-circulation model and other GCMs could lead to severe droughts is investigated by means of numerical simulations, with a focus on the role of potential evapotranspiration E(P). The relationships between precipitation (P), E(P), soil moisture, and vegetation changes in GCMs are discussed; the empirically derived Palmer drought-intensity index and a new supply-demand index (SDDI) based on changes in P - E(P) are described; and simulation results for the period 1960-2060 are presented in extensive tables, graphs, and computer-generated color maps. Simulations with both drought indices predict increasing drought frequency for the U.S., with effects already apparent in the 1990s and a 50-percent frequency of severe droughts by the 2050s. Analyses of arid periods during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are shown to support the use of the SDDI in GCM drought prediction.

Rind, D.↗

Exploring the Potential of Hydrogen as a Lift Gas for Nasa’s Scientific Balloon Program

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Balloon Program has a rich history of conducting scientific research in the stratosphere, offering a unique platform for experiments in the near-space environment. One critical component of these high-altitude balloons is the choice of lift gas, which is pivotal to achieving the desired altitude and, thus, mission objectives. Traditionally, helium has been the preferred lift gas due to its inert properties and safety considerations. However, the increasing demand and limited global helium reserves have prompted NASA to explore alternative lift gases, with hydrogen emerging as the most logical choice. Hydrogen boasts several advantages, including its abundant availability, cost-effectiveness, and enhanced lift capability compared to helium. Moreover, it can support a wide range of scientific payloads, enabling extended mission durations and increased payload capacities, ultimately strengthening the program’s scientific potential. However, adopting hydrogen as a lift gas is not without challenges. Safety concerns, especially during the launch and recovery phases, are paramount. NASA and the other major players in the scientific ballooning community have been developing stringent safety protocols and engineering solutions to mitigate these risks. This development includes specialized support systems, leak detection mechanisms, and enhanced launch and recovery procedures. Additionally, environmental considerations must be carefully evaluated. Hydrogen release has the potential to increase concentrations of various greenhouse gases, and its usage must be balanced against the benefits it offers to scientific research and exploration. This paper delves into the ongoing research and development efforts to ensure balloon-based research’s long-term sustainability and its ability to continue pushing the boundaries of scientific discovery. This research demonstrates NASA’s commitment to innovation, safety, and environmental responsibility while maintaining its mission to advance our understanding of the Earth and the cosmos.

balloon↗

Developing a Cloud-Based ArcGIS Image Service for TROPOMI Level 2 Data: Preprocessing, Transformation, and Publication

TROPOMI, the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument aboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite, provides high spatiotemporal resolution atmospheric measurements. It is essential for monitoring air quality, greenhouse gases, and other trace gases. Integrating TROPOMI Level 2 data into an ArcGIS Image Service marks a significant advancement in the accessibility and utility of satellite-derived environmental information for GIS applications. This paper details the methodology for building an ArcGIS Image Service tailored to handle TROPOMI Level 2 data, with a focus on preprocessing, transformation, and cloud-based publication. The workflow utilizes Python and ArcPy for data reformatting, reprojection, and updating, ensuring efficient processing and cloud-based notifications. By establishing a robust pipeline, the ArcGIS Image Service provides real-time access to TROPOMI Level 2 data, enabling users to visualize, analyze, and interpret atmospheric phenomena effectively.

Level 2 Data, ArcGIS, Image Service, ArcPy, OGC↗

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

glaciology↗

Capacity Building Engagement for Estimating Forest Stand Height Utilizing the SAR Handbook

Utilizing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) which provides information such as vegetation structure and moisture content, independently of weather conditions is a powerful tool that can be employed to more effectively monitor deforestation and estimate biomass which is of paramount concern, especially in South and Southeast Asia which contain nearly 15% of all tropical forests. SERVIR, a NASA-USAID initiative, works in partnership with regional hubs around the world building capacity through promoting the use of Earth observations and geospatial technologies. The SERVIR Global network and the Silva Carbon program collaboratively developed the SAR Handbook: Comprehensive Methodologies for Forest Monitoring and Biomass Estimation which set out to reduce the barriers associated with leveraging SAR and increase the capacity of researchers and practitioners globally to use SAR for monitoring. In particular, utilizing SAR to estimate Forest Stand Height (FSH) is crucial for greenhouse gas emissions reporting and estimating carbon storage. Programs such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) rely on parameters such as these for their monitoring efforts. This talk will showcase the collaborative efforts, emergent geospatial technology leveraged, and capacity building approaches utilized by our team to conduct a South and Southeast Asia focused in-person training event located at SERVIR-Mekong, a SERVIR hub lead by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok.

AGU↗

Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

Arctic↗

Internal Physical Features of a Land Surface Model Employing a Tangent Linear Model

The Earth's land surface, including its biomass, is an integral part of the Earth's weather and climate system. Land surface heterogeneity, such as the type and amount of vegetative covering., has a profound effect on local weather variability and therefore on regional variations of the global climate. Surface conditions affect local weather and climate through a number of mechanisms. First, they determine the re-distribution of the net radiative energy received at the surface, through the atmosphere, from the sun. A certain fraction of this energy increases the surface ground temperature, another warms the near-surface atmosphere, and the rest evaporates surface water, which in turn creates clouds and causes precipitation. Second, they determine how much rainfall and snowmelt can be stored in the soil and how much instead runs off into waterways. Finally, surface conditions influence the near-surface concentration and distribution of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The processes through which these mechanisms interact with the atmosphere can be modeled mathematically, to within some degree of uncertainty, on the basis of underlying physical principles. Such a land surface model provides predictive capability for surface variables including ground temperature, surface humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. This information is important for agriculture and industry, as well as for addressing fundamental scientific questions concerning global and local climate change. In this study we apply a methodology known as tangent linear modeling to help us understand more deeply, the behavior of the Mosaic land surface model, a model that has been developed over the past several years at NASA/GSFC. This methodology allows us to examine, directly and quantitatively, the dependence of prediction errors in land surface variables upon different vegetation conditions. The work also highlights the importance of accurate soil moisture information. Although surface variables are predicted imperfectly due to inherent uncertainties in the modeling process, our study suggests how satellite observations can be combined with the model, through land surface data assimilation, to improve their prediction.

Yang, Runhua↗

Quantifying Contributions of Land Carbon Fluxes Variability and Atmospheric Transport Variability to Atmospheric CO2 Variability

Much of the uncertainty in predicting variations in greenhouse gases originates in the complex dynamics of the land ecosystem and the atmosphere. To reduce the uncertainties, it is useful to decouple the contributions of land carbon fluxes and atmospheric transport to atmospheric carbon variability. Here we isolate these contributions using a version of the NASA GEOS model that couples carbon, energy and water cycles between the land and the atmosphere. Our current study is a follow-on to a preliminary analysis that suggested that an extreme event (e.g., imposed drought) in a free running AGCM simulation affects atmospheric CO2 more through its impact on atmospheric transport than through a modification of land carbon fluxes. In order to more carefully isolate the effects of the land carbon variability and atmospheric transport variability on atmospheric CO2 variability, we conducted two coupled-AGCM simulations in replay mode, a mode that forces the model's evolution of weather to match that of the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In the control simulation, the land carbon fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as well as the meteorology, are simulated over 2001-2015. We compute the climatological seasonal cycles of net land carbon production from this control simulation and then prescribe, in a second simulation, these climatological carbon fluxes to the atmosphere in the same replay mode. By comparing the atmospheric CO2 variability produced in the two simulations, we fully isolate the part of this variability associated with land surface fluxes. Relative contributions of land flux variability and atmospheric transport variability to CO2 variability are quantified both on a regional basis and as a function of height into the atmosphere to support interpretation of both ground-based and satellite observations.

Lee, Eunjee↗