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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Anomaly Attribution with Likelihood Compensation

This paper addresses the task of explaining anomalous predictions of a black-box regression model. When using a black-box model, such as one to predict building energy consumption from many sensor measurements, we often have a situation where some observed samples may significantly deviate from their prediction. It may be due to a sub-optimal black-box model, or simply because those samples are outliers. In either case, one would ideally want to compute a responsibility score indicative of the extent to which an input variable is responsible for the anomalous output. In this work, we formalize this task as a statistical inverse problem: Given model deviation from the expected value, infer the responsibility score of each of the input variables. We propose a new method called likelihood compensation (LC), which is founded on the likelihood principle and computes a correction to each input variable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first principled framework that computes a responsibility score for real valued anomalous model deviations. We apply our approach to a real-world building energy prediction task and confirm its utility based on expert feedback.

Idé, Tsuyoshi↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fracture Strength Determination Methods for Ceramic Materials Applied to Uranium Dioxide

The Advanced Fuels Campaign is currently focusing on development of accident-tolerant fuels that possess a range of property modifications intended to improve fuel performance during accident and transient conditions as well as extend license limits to burnups beyond 62 MWd/kgU. Both of these drivers have identified understanding and mitigating fuel cracking as a key performance criterion. Small-scale cantilever beam testing has been identified as a plausible method by which to collect fracture data for UO 2 as a function of chemical and structural evolutions introduced either during fabrication or irradiation. While this method has been found to be capable of providing data that are in reasonable agreement with literature for unirradiated UO 2 , the inherently small sample volumes that can be sampled limit its ability to capture the statistical nature of mechanisms that govern the fracture of brittle ceramics. A biaxial flexure strength test was developed to be used for unirradiated UO 2 . This method is standard in the community, but no systems presently in use at national laboratories, universities, or private companies are available to be used for nuclear fuel materials. This report describes the operation and benchmarking of this system, which has been validated for a number of common oxides. Future work will extend this system to characterization of both doped UO 2 and other relevant microstructural modifications that can also be measured using small-scale cantilever beam testing. Comparison of datasets collected using both methods will allow the overall applicability of small-scale techniques to be assessed and provide confidence or bounds on their use for irradiated fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Glass Irradiation on Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy Data Analysis

Increased absorption of optical materials arising from exposure to ionizing radiation must be accounted for to accurately analyze laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) data retrieved from high-radiation environments. We evaluate this effect on two examples that mimic the diagnostics placed within novel nuclear reactor designs. The analysis is performed on LIBS data measured with 1% Xe gas in an ambient He environment and 1% Eu in a molten LiCl-KCl matrix, along with the measured optical absorption from the gamma- and neutron-irradiated low-OH fused silica and sapphire glasses. Significant changes in the number of laser shots required to reach a 3σ detection level are observed for the Eu data, increasing by two orders of magnitude after exposure to a 1.7 × 1017 n/cm2 neutron fluence. For all cases examined, the spectral dependence of absorption results in the introduction of systematic errors. Moreover, if lines from different spectral regions are used to create Boltzmann plots, this attenuation leads to statistically significant changes in the temperatures calculated from the Xe II lines and Eu II lines, lowering them from 8000 ± 610 K to 6900 ± 810 K and from 15,800 ± 400 K to 7200 ± 800 K, respectively, for exposure to the 1.7 × 1017 n/cm2 fluence. The temperature range required for a 95% confidence interval for the calculated temperature is also broadened. In the case of measuring the Xe spectrum, these effects may be mitigated using only the longer-wavelength spectral region, where radiation attenuation is relatively small, or through analysis using the iterative Saha–Boltzmann method.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A causal data fusion method for the general exposure and outcome

Abstract With the advent of the big data era, the need to combine multiple individual data sets to draw causal effects arises naturally in many medical and biological applications. Especially each data set cannot measure enough confounders to infer the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. In this article, we extend the method proposed by a previous study to causal data fusion of more than two data sets without external validation and to a more general (continuous or discrete) exposure and outcome. Theoretically, we obtain the condition for identifiability of exposure effects using multiple individual data sources for the continuous or discrete exposure and outcome. The simulation results show that our proposed causal data fusion method has unbiased causal effect estimate and higher precision than traditional regression, meta‐analysis and statistical matching methods. We further apply our method to study the causal effect of BMI on glucose level in individuals with diabetes by combining two data sets. Our method is essential for causal data fusion and provides important insights into the ongoing discourse on the empirical analysis of merging multiple individual data sources.

Li, Hongkai↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transient anisotropic kernel for probabilistic learning on manifolds

PLoM (Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds) is a method introduced in 2016 for handling small training datasets by projecting an Itô equation from a stochastic dissipative Hamiltonian dynamical system, acting as the MCMC generator, for which the KDE-estimated probability measure with the training dataset is the invariant measure. PLoM performs a projection on a reduced-order vector basis related to the training dataset, using the diffusion maps (DMAPS) basis constructed with a time-independent isotropic kernel. In this paper, we propose a new ISDE projection vector basis built from a transient anisotropic kernel, providing an alternative to the DMAPS basis to improve statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with heterogeneous data. The construction ensures that for times near the initial time, the DMAPS basis coincides with the transient basis. For larger times, the differences between the two bases are characterized by the angle of their spanned vector subspaces. The optimal instant yielding the optimal transient basis is determined using an estimation of mutual information from Information Theory, which is normalized by the entropy estimation to account for the effects of the number of realizations used in the estimations. Consequently, this new vector basis better represents statistical dependencies in the learned probability measure for any dimension. Three applications with varying levels of statistical complexity and data heterogeneity validate the proposed theory, showing that the transient anisotropic kernel improves the learned probability measure.

Diffusion maps↗
DOE OSTI2026

PISCES two-detector covariance matrix fit for the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA's primary physics goals are the precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ , determine the neutrino mass ordering, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. In the standard NOvA three-flavor analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data constrain the FD prediction through a ratio method. While this allows for systematic uncertainties sharing the same effects in both detectors to cancel, it remains an FD-only fit and does not fully leverage the constraining power of the high-statistics ND. This analysis proposes a simultaneous ND+FD fit using the PISCES method. PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics) is a framework designed to support complex configurations such as a joint ND+FD fit. This allows PISCES to take full advantage of the ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. In PISCES, systematic uncertainties are encoded in a fractional covariance matrix, and statistical uncertainties are handled with a Poisson likelihood, making the approach well suited for low-statistics samples. For interpretability, we further use a Newton–Raphson + PCA method to recover per-systematic pulls from the covariance formulation. This poster presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, describes its implementation and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resonant soft X-ray scattering in polymer science

Resonant soft X-ray scattering (RSoXS) is an emerging, powerful technique to probe the nano-to-mesoscale structure of polymers and other molecules. It joins together small-angle X-ray scattering (a statistical nanoprobe) with X-ray spectroscopy that brings with it unique chemical and bond-orientation sensitivity. Through over a decade of discovery and development, RSoXS is moving from a niche technique applied to organic electronic thin films to a mature tool applicable to a plethora of polymeric and molecular systems, encompassing new modalities, analyses, and simulation methods. This development promises to deliver increasingly quantitative answers to challenging questions in polymer science as well as expand its usefulness to complementary fields. Here, this review presents a full synopsis of the technique, including background on the theoretical underpinnings, measurement best practices, and examples of recent RSoXS applications and discoveries provided here to accelerate the transition to a broader range of soft matter and polymeric fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Structural analysis of molten materials by a remote fiber optic Raman sensor

This study presents a novel in situ high-temperature fiber optic Raman probe that enables the study of the physical properties and structure of molten samples at temperatures up to 1400 °C. To demonstrate the functionality of the high-temperature fiber optic Raman probe, different composition mold fluxes were evaluated in this report. The Raman spectra at flux molten temperature were successfully collected and analyzed. A deconvolution algorithm was employed to identify peaks in the spectra associated with the molecular structure of the components in each sample. Here, the experimental results demonstrate that the composition-dependent Raman signal shift can be detected at high temperatures, indicating that molten materials analysis using a high-temperature Raman system shows significant promise. This flexible and reliable high-temperature Raman measurement method has great potential for various applications, such as materials development, composition and structure monitoring during high-temperature processing, chemical identification, and process monitoring in industrial production.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Data-Driven Method for Estimating Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Generation in Hawaii

Due to the increasing penetration of distributed behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) systems and the installed utility revenue metering limited to monitoring only the net power import/export of the household, it is increasingly challenging for utilities to effectively plan and operate the grid. This paper proposes a methodology that estimates behind-the-meter PV generation using a selected subset of monitored PV systems. It is a data-driven approach, and the PV output is estimated utilizing a statistic regression model. A Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (MRMR) algorithm is applied to preselect the optimal subset of the monitored PV systems. The performance of this approach is compared with a spatial interpolation method and a model-based approach. The proposed method is validated using high-resolution meter data recorded from 18 residential rooftop PV systems located on the island of Maui, Hawaii.

Data-driven modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

FREDA: A Web Application for the Processing, Analysis, and Visualization of Fourier‐Transform Mass Spectrometry Data

The high-resolution measurement capability of Fourier-transform mass spectrometry (FT-MS) has made it a necessity for exploring the molecular composition of complex organic mixtures, like soil, plant, aquatic, and petroleum samples. This demand has driven a need for informatics tools to explore and analyze FT-MS data in a robust and reproducible manner. FREDA is an interactive web application developed to enable spectrometrists to format, process, and explore their FT-MS data without the need for statistical programming expertise. FREDA was built to explore outputs from a molecular identification tool, like CoreMS, and provide a suite of methods to filter data, compute chemical properties of peaks, statistically compare samples and groups of samples, conduct exploratory data analysis, and download the results with a report detailing all steps conducted. To demonstrate the utility of FREDA, an example analysis was conducted using FT-MS data from a soil microbiology study of samples collected in two different soil depths at the Sphagnum bog forest north of Grand Rapids, Minnesota. Differences between the two depths are observed using Kendrick, Gibbs free energy, and van Krevelen plots. G-tests are used to quantify a significant difference between the groups. All analyses and plotting are conducted using only the FREDA application. FREDA is an open-source and readily available web application that allows users to explore and make statistically valid conclusions about their FT-MS data. The application is available online (https://map.emsl.pnnl.gov/app/freda) with a tutorial web series (https://youtu.be/k5HLE2kNSBY?si=yB6sGoyvzxrFf5MP) and freely accessible code on Github (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/FREDA).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Can assembly bias explain the lensing amplitude of the BOSS CMASS sample in a Planck cosmology?

ABSTRACT In this paper, we investigate whether galaxy assembly bias can reconcile the 20–40 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ disagreement between the observed galaxy projected clustering signal and the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey CMASS galaxy sample. We use the suite of abacuscosmos lambda cold dark matter simulations at Planck best-fitting cosmology and two flexible implementations of extended halo occupation distribution (HOD) models that incorporate galaxy assembly bias to build forward models and produce joint fits of the observed galaxy clustering signal and the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal. We find that our models using the standard HODs without any assembly bias generalizations continue to show a 20–40 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ overprediction of the observed galaxy–galaxy lensing signal. We find that our implementations of galaxy assembly bias do not reconcile the two measurements at Planck best-fitting cosmology. In fact, despite incorporating galaxy assembly bias, the satellite distribution parameter, and the satellite velocity bias parameter into our extended HOD model, our fits still strongly suggest a $\sim \! 34{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ discrepancy between the observed projected clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements. It remains to be seen whether a combination of other galaxy assembly bias models, alternative cosmological parameters, or baryonic effects can explain the amplitude difference between the two signals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smart quantum statistical imaging beyond the Abbe-Rayleigh criterion

The wave nature of light imposes limits on the resolution of optical imaging systems. For over a century, the Abbe-Rayleigh criterion has been utilized to assess the spatial resolution limits of imaging instruments. Recently, there has been interest in using spatial projective measurements to enhance the resolution of imaging systems. Unfortunately, these schemes require a priori information regarding the coherence properties of “unknown” light beams and impose stringent alignment conditions. Here, we introduce a smart quantum camera for superresolving imaging that exploits the self-learning features of artificial intelligence to identify the statistical fluctuations of unknown mixtures of light sources at each pixel. This is achieved through a universal quantum model that enables the design of artificial neural networks for the identification of photon fluctuations. Our protocol overcomes limitations of existing superresolution schemes based on spatial mode projections, and consequently provides alternative methods for microscopy, remote sensing, and astronomy.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lifetime measurements of states of S 35 , S 36 , S 37 , and S 38 using the AGATA γ -ray tracking spectrometer

Lifetimes or lifetime limits of a small number of excited states of the sulfur isotopes with mass numbers A = 35 , 36, 37, and 38 have been measured using the differential recoil-distance method. The isotopes of sulfur were populated in binary grazing reactions initiated by a beam of 36 S ions of energy 225 MeV incident on a thin 208 Pb target which was mounted in the Cologne plunger apparatus. The combination of the PRISMA magnetic spectrometer and an early implementation of the AGATA γ-ray tracking array was used to detect γ rays in coincidence with projectile-like nuclear species. Lifetime measurements of populated states were measured within the range from about 1 to 100 ps. The number of states for which lifetime measurements or lifetime limits were possible was limited by statistics. For 35 S, the lifetime was determined for the first 1/2 + state at 1572 keV; the result is compared with a previous published lifetime value. The lifetime of the 3 - state of 36 S at 4193 keV was determined and compared with earlier measurements. No previous lifetime information exists for the (6 + ) state at 6690 keV; a lifetime measurement with large associated error was made in the present work. For 37 S, the states for which lifetime limits were established were those at 646 keV with J π = 3/2 - and at 2776 keV with J π = 11/2 - ; there are no previously published lifetime values for excited states of 37 S. Finally, a lifetime limit was established for the J π =(6 + ) state of 38 S at 3675 keV; no lifetime information exists for this state in the literature. Measured lifetime values were compared with the results of state-of-the-art shell-model calculations based on the PSDPF, SDPF-U, and FSU effective interactions. In addition, nuclear magnetic-dipole and electric-quadrupole moments, branching ratios, mixing ratios, and electromagnetic transition rates, where available, have been compared with shell-model values. The current work suffers from poor statistics; nevertheless, lifetime values and limits have been possible, allowing a useful discussion of the ability of state-of-the-art shell-model calculations to reproduce the experimental results.

electromagnetic transitions↗
DOE OSTI2025

First observation of antiproton annihilation at rest on argon in the LArIAT experiment

We report the first observation and measurement of antiproton annihilation at rest on argon track and shower multiplicities and particle identification conducted with the LArIAT experiment. Stopping antiprotons from the Fermilab Test Beam Facility’s charged particle test beam are identified using beamline instrumentation and LArIAT’s liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). The charged particle multiplicity from the annihilation vertex is manually evaluated via hand scanning, yielding a mean of 3.2 ± 0.4 tracks and a standard deviation of 1.3 tracks, consistent with a semiautomated reconstruction resulting in 2.8 ± 0.4 tracks and a standard deviation of 1.2 tracks. Both methods are consistent with Monte Carlo simulations within statistical uncertainty. The shower multiplicities and particle identification for outgoing tracks are also consistent with eant4 model predictions. These results, obtained from a low-statistics sample, provide a foundation for higher-statistics studies in larger LArTPCs, which could refine modeling of intranuclear annihilation on argon and inform scenarios such as neutron-antineutron oscillations. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dashboard for Marine Energy Site Assessment and Monitoring

The marine energy (ME) industry presently relies upon fragmented site assessment solutions that require high resource expenditure for deployment at each site and do not leverage the wealth of readily available tools and information. A wave energy resource assessment dashboard, currently in development, will substantially improve siting, permitting, operations, and maintenance of ME projects by providing an integrated solution that is a one-stop-shop for a developer’s needs. The Site Energy Assessment and MOnitoring Dashboard (SEAMOD) will be of commercial interest to anyone seeking to deploy an ME project and is easily expandable to include tidal and wind energy site assessments. The integrated dashboard is being developed using state-of-the-art database and cloud computing methods and data-assimilative modeling tools that can be coupled with low-cost, rapidly deployable wave buoys and environmental sensing hardware. The combined software and hardware dashboard will reduce wave energy site characterization and wave climate monitoring costs by more than 60 percent and provide assessments that meet international industry standards. To realize a thriving global ME industry, the physical environment at a potential deployment site must be understood, not only for resource characterization, but also for optimization of device and power conversion performance. SEAMOD directly addresses these needs with a commercially marketable product. SEAMOD is a low-cost solution that provides comprehensive ME resource assessments, baseline environmental monitoring, and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The key technical objectives for Phase I were a series of software development goals, which when implemented with monitoring solutions, produced an initial proof-of-concept low-cost wave energy resources dashboard. In Phase II, the development of the prototype SEAMOD continued. The basic framework employed was the development of a revised dashboard and monitoring tool customized for ME applications by focusing on IEC site assessment and method requirements. Development was focused on the integration of full hindcast metocean products to provide hindcast resource characterization and environmental information. The final integrated dashboard provides a low-cost solution that delivers comprehensive, scalable, industry-standard energy resource assessments and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The integrated dashboard offers visibility of the most recent site modeling, measurements, and historical data. The application and integration of consensus-based standards for wave energy resource assessment, as determined by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), are crucial for the impact and value of SEAMOD. SEAMOD includes monthly, seasonal, and yearly statistics, as well as the total 30-year record, offering temporal resolution of the IEC parameters to aid potential developers in determining the available wave energy resources in their area of interest.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cross Section Evaluation for Exclusive Channels of K+Λ and K+Σ0 Electroproduction off Protons Using CLAS Detector Data

In this work, a method for evaluating the cross sections of electroproduction of K+Λ0 and K+Σ0 off protons in the region of invariant masses of final hadrons MK + MY <W < 2.65 GeV (MK and MY being the masses of the kaon and hyperon, respectively) and squares of four-momentum transfers of virtual photons, i.e., photon virtualities 0 < Q2 < 5 GeV2, is developed based on experimental data of these exclusive channels’ cross sections measured by the CLAS detector in Hall B at Jefferson Lab. A set of algorithms has been implemented to evaluate the differential cross sections of these channels, along with their statistical and systematic uncertainties. A program was developed for the evaluation of differential cross sections and structure functions using C++ and Python libraries. An interactive website was created for working with the program, enabling the analysis of one-dimensional and two-dimensional dependences of structure functions and differential cross sections. The evaluation of differential cross sections for the K+Λ and K+Σ0 electroproduction channels is necessary for extracting the structure function σLT from the data on the polarization asymmetry of electroproduction reactions of these final states with longitudinally polarized electrons. The obtained results are also important for the development of realistic Monte Carlo event generators in planning future experiments and for evaluating the efficiency of detecting final particles when extracting reaction cross sections from experimental data.

Golda, A. V.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal intrinsic alignment estimators in the presence of redshift-space distortions

We present estimators for quantifying intrinsic alignments in large spectroscopic surveys that efficiently capture line-of-sight (LOS) information while being relatively insensitive to redshift-space distortions (RSD). We demonstrate that changing the LOS integration range, pimax, as a function of transverse separation outperforms the conventional choice of a single pimax value. This is further improved by replacing the flat pimax cut with a LOS weighting based on shape projection and RSD. Although these estimators incorporate additional LOS information, they are projected correlations that exhibit signal-to-noise ratios comparable to 3D correlation functions, such as the IA quadrupole. Using simulations from Abacus Summit, we evaluate these estimators and provide recommended pimax values and weights for projected separations of 1 - 100 Mpc/h. These will improve measurements of intrinsic alignments in large cosmological surveys and the constraints they provide for both weak lensing and direct cosmological applications.

cosmology↗