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At least 577 records · Page 32

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NASA NTRS1971

Solar activity prediction

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Slutz, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Apollo experience report: Onboard navigational and alignment software

The onboard navigational and alignment routines used during the nonthrusting phases of an Apollo mission are discussed as to their limitations, and alternate approaches that have more desirable capabilities are presented. A more efficient procedure for solving Kepler's equation, which is used in the calculation of Kepler's problem and Lambert's problem is included, and a sixth-order predictor scheme with a Runge-Kutta starter is recommended for numerical integration. The extension of the rendezvous navigation state to include angle biases and the use of a fixed coordinate system is also evaluated.

Savely, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Generation of the invariant coefficients of the characteristic polynomial for an nxn matrix

In theories of numerical stability, roots to a characteristic polynomial are sought, which, in the case of the predictor with iterative correction method of numerical integration, are eigenvalues of a matrix whose elements depend on the coefficients used in the integration process. The characteristic polynomial is displayed explicitly in terms of the elements of the characteristic matrix.

Beaudet, P. R.↗

NASA NTRS1971

The thunderstorm forecasting system at the Kennedy Space Center.

One of the major problems concerning meteorologists at the Kennedy Space Center, Fla, involves the forecasting of thunderstorm activity and associated adverse weather phenomena. The purpose of the study is to outline some of the more successful diagnostic tools which have been developed to aid the forecaster. These involve a variety of statistical procedures including conditional probabilities, exposure-period probabilities, and systems of multiple-regression equations based on nonlinear predictors.

Charles J Neumann↗

NASA NTRS1972

Dynamic response analysis of geometrically non-linear structures subjected to high impact.

Description of an efficient digital computer method for the determination of the propagation of elastic stresses and deformations in certain geometrically nonlinear structures subjected to high impact loading. The finite-element matrix displacement approach utilizing curved quadrilateral shell elements in conjunction with a nodewise predictor-corrector method employing Runge-Kutta extrapolation techniques has been adopted for the present solution. The related computer program written in FORTRAN V for the UNIVAC 1108 computer has proved to be effective for the solution of a range of practical problems including rectangular and cylindrical panels. Numerical results are presented for a relevant structure, the cell container, and the negative electrode of an impact-resistant battery subjected to high impact, simulating its free landing on a planetary surface.

Gupta, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Job-mix modeling and system analysis of an aerospace multiprocessor.

An aerospace guidance computer organization, consisting of multiple processors and memory units attached to a central time-multiplexed data bus, is described. A job mix for this type of computer is obtained by analysis of Apollo mission programs. Multiprocessor performance is then analyzed using: 1) queuing theory, under certain 'limiting case' assumptions; 2) Markov process methods; and 3) system simulation. Results of the analyses indicate: 1) Markov process analysis is a useful and efficient predictor of simulation results; 2) efficient job execution is not seriously impaired even when the system is so overloaded that new jobs are inordinately delayed in starting; 3) job scheduling is significant in determining system performance; and 4) a system having many slow processors may or may not perform better than a system of equal power having few fast processors, but will not perform significantly worse.

Mallach, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Effect of bedrest and positive radial acceleration upon peripheral visual response time.

Attempt to determine if peripheral visual response time (RT) could be used as a reliable advanced predictor of +G sub z-related blackout or grayout. The relatively high luminance of the peripheral stimuli used in the experiments may account for the finding that peripheral RT was not sensitive to impending blackout or grayout. The relatively consistent mean RTs within subjects across test days in bed is probably due to the relatively constant response characteristics of the retina and to the high repeatability of the stimuli.

Haines, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Application of stepwise multiple regression techniques to inversion of Nimbus 'IRIS' observations.

Exploratory studies with Nimbus-3 infrared interferometer-spectrometer (IRIS) data indicate that, in addition to temperature, such meteorological parameters as geopotential heights of pressure surfaces, tropopause pressure, and tropopause temperature can be inferred from the observed spectra with the use of simple regression equations. The technique of screening the IRIS spectral data by means of stepwise regression to obtain the best radiation predictors of meteorological parameters is validated. The simplicity of application of the technique and the simplicity of the derived linear regression equations - which contain only a few terms - suggest usefulness for this approach. Based upon the results obtained, suggestions are made for further development and exploitation of the stepwise regression analysis technique.

Ohring, G.↗

NASA NTRS1972

On the stability of numerical integration routines.

Numerical integration methods for the solution of initial value problems for ordinary vector differential equations may be modelled as discrete time feedback systems. The stability criteria discovered in modern control theory are applied to these systems and criteria involving the routine, the step size and the differential equation are derived. Linear multistep, Runge-Kutta, and predictor-corrector methods are all investigated.

Glover, K.↗

NASA NTRS1972

An input adaptive, pursuit tracking model of the human opertor

Developed and evaluated is a simple model of the input adaptive behavior of the human operator (HO) in a pursuit tracking task in which the plant controlled consists of a pure gain. If it is assumed that the HO is approximately an optimal predictor using only position and velocity information, then there is a simple method of computing the values of the model parameters in terms of the autocorrelation function of the input signal. Experimental evidence indicates that the ability of the HO to use velocity information decreases with increasing signal velocity indicating that a biased estimator of the velocity weighting should be used. A suitable approximation is derived which has rapid convergence and low variance. The model thus derived is compared to actual subject transfer functions and is found to be in close agreement. In addition to tracking random processes the model can adapt to and track deterministic signals, such as sine waves, up to approximately the frequency at which human operators begin to track precognitively.

Ware, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Numerical calculations of flow fields

The solutions to the equations of motion for inviscid fluid flow around a pointed elliptic cone at incidence are presented. The numerical method used, MacCormack's second order preferential predictor-corrector finite difference approximation, is applied to the fluid flow equations derived in conservation-law form. The entropy boundary condition, hitherto unused for elliptic cone problems, is investigated and compared to reflection boundary condition solutions. The stagnation streamline movement of the inclined elliptic cone is noted and surface pressure coefficients are plotted. Also presented are solutions for an elliptic cone and a circular cone at zero incidence and a circular cone at a small angle of attack. Comparisons are made between these present solutions and previously published theory.

Anderson, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1972

A review of some aspects of inferring the ozone profile by inversion of ultraviolet radiance measurements

The mathematical inversion of light-scattering observations to obtain the atmospheric ozone profile is discussed in terms of the filtering properties of the physical and mathematical processes for different spatial scales. Within this context, it is shown that the physical process of scattering acts as a low pass filter; which transfers large-scale profile information efficiently to radiance observations but very strongly attenuates small- or fine-scale profile information. To avoid domination of the mathematical inversion by the random error of radiance measurements, an equivalent spatial-scale filtering in the inversion procedure is essential. The available evidence suggests that mathematical inversion to obtain the low level ozone profile below 25 to 30 km is either inferior to or no better than the statistical estimation of the profile using total ozone as predictor. However, inversion profiles for high level ozone above 25 to 30 km appear to have moderately good accuracy.

Mateer, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Evaluation of noise pollution level based upon community exposure and response data

The results and procedures are reported from an evaluation of noise pollution level as a predictor of annoyance, based on aircraft noise exposure and community response data. The measures of noise exposure presented include composite noise rating, noise exposure forecast, noise and number index. A proposed measure as a universal noise exposure measure for noise pollution level (L sub NP) is discussed.

Edmiston, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1970

The use of space and high altitude aerial photography to classify forest land and to detect forest disturbances

In October 1969, an investigation was begun near Atlanta, Georgia, to explore the possibilities of developing predictors for forest land and stand condition classifications using space photography. It has been found that forest area can be predicted with reasonable accuracy on space photographs using ocular techniques. Infrared color film is the best single multiband sensor for this purpose. Using the Apollo 9 infrared color photographs taken in March 1969 photointerpreters were able to predict forest area for small units consistently within 5 to 10 percent of ground truth. Approximately 5,000 density data points were recorded for 14 scan lines selected at random from five study blocks. The mean densities and standard deviations were computed for 13 separate land use classes. The results indicate that forest area cannot be separated from other land uses with a high degree of accuracy using optical film density alone. If, however, densities derived by introducing red, green, and blue cutoff filters in the optical system of the microdensitometer are combined with their differences and their ratios in regression analysis techniques, there is a good possibility of discriminating forest from all other classes.

Aldrich, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Prediction of pressure fluctuation in sounding rockets and manifolded recovery systems

The determination of altitude by means of barometric sensors in sounding rocket applications is discussed. A method for predicting the performance of such sensing systems is needed. A method is developed for predicting the pressure-time response of a volume subjected to subsonic air flow through from one to four passages. The pressure calculation is based on one-dimensional gas flow with friction. A computed program has been developed which solves the differential equations using a self-starting predictor-corrector integration technique. The input data required are the pressure sensing system dimensions, pressure forcing function(s) at the inlet port(s), and a trajectory over the time of analysis (altitude-velocity-time), if the forcing function is trajectory dependent. The program then computes the pressure-temperature history of the gas in the manifold over the time interval specified.

Laudadio, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Variation of the low level winds during the passage of a thunderstorm gust front

Three time histories of wind profiles in thunderstorm gust fronts at Cape Kennedy and three at Oklahoma City are analyzed. Wind profiles at maximum wind strength below 100 m follow logarithmic laws, so that winds above the surface layer can be estimated from surface winds once the roughness length is known. A statistical analysis of 81 cases of surface winds during thunderstorms at Tampa revealed no predictor with skill to predict the time of maximum gust. Some 34% of the variance of the strength of the gust is accounted for by a stability index and surface wind prior to the gust; the regression equations for these variables are given. The coherence between microscale wind speed variations at the different levels has the same proportions as in non-thunderstorm cases.

Sinclair, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1973

On the stability of numerical integration routines for ordinary differential equations.

Glover, K.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Viscous flow over spinning cones at angle of attack.

A numerical finite-difference method is developed for evaluating the Magnus coefficients on spinning cones in laminar flow. The merged layer, the strong interaction region, and the downstream boundary layer are all considered. The numerical method is a predictor-corrector scheme developed for three-dimensional flows with or without crossflow diffusion. This method is particularly useful in problems in which a symmetry plane does not exist. Several contributions to the Magnus force and moments are considered. These include asymmetries in displacement thickness, centrifugal force and crossflow shear, and the effects of crossflow separation and vortex formation. Comparisons are made with experimental data and other analyses.

Lin, T. C.↗