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At least 577 records · Page 32

Toroidal modeling of plasma flow damping and density pump-out by RMP during ELM mitigation in HL-2A

Reduction of both the plasma density and toroidal flow speed, due to application of the predominantly n = 1 (n is the toroidal mode number) resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) for controlling the edge localized mode in the HL-2A tokamak, is numerically investigated utilizing the quasi-linear initial-value code MARS-Q (Liu et al 2013 Phys. Plasmas 20 042503). Simulation results reveal that the neoclassical toroidal viscosity (NTV) due to three dimensional fields plays the key role in modifying the plasma momentum and particle transport in the HL-2A discharge. By comparing the modeling results with the measured density pump-out in the experiment, the electron NTV particle flux model, in combination with the free-boundary condition for the axisymmetric change of the density at the plasma edge, is found to yield the best agreement in terms of both the pump-out level and the overall time scale. Further sensitivity studies show that the simulated density pump-out level is reasonably robust against variations in the model assumptions, including the particle diffusion model and the non-ambipolar versus ambipolar NTV particle flux. The latter however affects the time scale for reaching the steady state solution. Finally, it is found that the plasma edge-peeling response, the NTV torque, as well as the plasma momentum and particle transport, all are sensitive to the toroidal phase difference between the upper and lower rows of the RMP coil currents in HL-2A, with the 30 ∘ coil phasing producing the minimal side effects on the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Optimal production of Phanerochaete chrysosporium manganese peroxidases and Trametes sp. C30 laccase hybrid Lac131 in Aspergillus niger for lignin bioconversion

Background Incorporating the production of related ligninolytic enzymes into industrial filamentous fungus Aspergillus niger will enhance the bioconversion of lignocelluloses to various chemical products. Results In this study, transgenic expression of Phanerochaete chrysosporium manganese peroxidases (mnps) and Trametes sp. C30 laccase hybrid Lac131 (lac131) were examined and optimized in A. niger 11414 prtT∆ strain. Five mnps (mnp1, mnp2, mnp3, mnp4, and mnp5) and lac131 genes were expressed separately or in combination. The transgenic strain containing the entire mnp2 genomic coding sequence (gmnp2) exhibited the highest mnP activity among the five mnp over-expression strains in the modified minimal medium (mMM) with addition of 5 g/L bovine hemoglobin (bHg). We examined the effects of hemin and bHg on mnP production in the gmnp2 strain cultures and found that at least 1 g/L bHg was required, while hemin was not. Culture conditions for mnP production were further optimized for the gmnp2 strain and the highest mnP activities were detected in the cultures grown at 25 °C and 200 rpm with an initial pH of 4.5. Effects of soy protein, skim milk, and bovine serum albumin on mnP production were investigated; 5 g/L of soy proteins or skim milk had comparable effects to 2.5 g/L bHg, while cultures with bovine serum albumin had diminished mnP activity. Disruption of both prtT and vsm1 substantially augmented the mnP production and its activity reached 575 U/L. Trametes sp. C30 laccase hybrid lac131 was strongly expressed in either A. niger gmnp2 (1975 U/L) or 11414prtT∆ (3895 U/L) strain. Both mnP and laccase in the culture supernatants effectively decolorized selected phenolic compounds (dyes) and cleaved tagged model lignin dimers. Conclusion The mnP was successfully produced in A. niger by optimizing the culture conditions and host strain. Co-expression of all four mnp genes in the same expression host by multiplex CRISPR will lead to the mnP production reaching levels comparable to P. chrysosporium, while only requiring 36 h at 25 °C. The Lac131 activity in transgenic A. niger strain is 4- to 7-times higher than that in previous studies. Co-production of mnP and laccase in A. niger will enhance the lignin bioconversion efficiency.

Aspergillus niger↗

Small Scale Polygons and the History of Ground Ice on Mars

Recent progress on polygon modeling has focused on the diameter and surface relief that we expect of thermal-contraction polygons in martian permafrost. With this in mind, we developed a finite-element model of thermal-contraction-crack behavior in permafrost in a martian climate. This model was generated from a finite element code by Jay Melosh (called TECTON) originally developed for terrestrial and planetary crustal-deformation studies. We adapted this model to martian permafrost by including time (and temperature) dependent rheologies, boundary conditions, and isotropic thermal-contraction, as well as several small adaptations to a martian environment. We tested our model extensively, including comparison to an analytic solution of pre-fracture stress. We recently published an analysis of two potential sources of water for forming the recent gullies. In this work we first evaluated the potential for near-surface ground ice (in the top meter or so of soil) to melt under conditions of solar heating on sloped surfaces at high obliquity, utilizing both thermal and diffusion-based ground-ice-stability models; our results suggested that the ground ice will sublimate, and the ice table will recede to greater depths before the melting temperature can be reached. An exception can occur only for extremely salt-rich ice, depressing the freezing point.

Mellon, Michael T.↗

Effect of Impurity Atoms on Thermonuclear Yield

The presence of impurity atoms in an inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosion can greatly affect the burning of the thermonuclear fuel. This is a serious concern for attaining ignition as high atomic number atoms, such as carbon, can mix into the hot spot and reach the deuterium–tritium (DT) fuel, absorb energy from the implosion, and radiate away that energy. The temperature of the DT fuel drops and reduces the reactivity of the fuel resulting in lower thermonuclear yield. Fuel impurities can also be a useful diagnostic as when higher-Z atoms, such as Ar, Kr, and Xe, are purposefully mixed into the fuel. From the spectra emitted by these atoms, the temperature and density of the fuel can be deduced. The long history of using such tracer atoms by the national ICF program shows the great advances in experimental technique, diagnostic instruments, and atomic-physics modeling over the past 50 years. A particular set of experiments, the “High-Z” campaign, is reviewed in depth as this was the most systematic study of tracer element composition and quantity ever reported. Difficulties in interpreting the results of those experiments due to the limited code capabilities at that time are discussed. A main concern for the High-Z campaign was the then current state of non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (nLTE) atomic physics models. The present state of nLTE modeling and its implementation in Los Alamos’s multi-physics codes is discussed in this report. To further the understanding of the complex interaction of high-Z atoms in the gas, a survey of relevant existing experimental platforms at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and the Omega Laser Facility are presented along with the current state of pertinent diagnostics at NIF and Omega. This review concludes with a discussion of the trade-off available between temperature and volume of the imploded ICF capsule with the goal of maximizing the total yield.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Bay Area Regional Energy: Network Integrated Commercial Retrofits (BRICR) Project. Final Report

The BRICR project applied large-scale building energy modeling concepts with the aim of reducing the cost of energy efficiency targeting, design, and project development, and measurement of energy savings for energy efficiency programs implemented by local governments that serve small and medium commercial buildings (SMB). The project leveraged the services and resources of existing local government energy programs serving disadvantaged and hard-to-reach SMB customers. In contrast to programs run by utilities, local government programs generally do not have direct access to energy billing records for an entire class of customers in a geographic area, which prior research demonstrated useful for large-scale building energy model baseline development and calibration. , However, local governments are rich in public records that offer important clues about physical attributes and uses that, along with behavior, determine energy use. Relying only on public records, BRICR demonstrated development of credible baseline energy models for 3,792 office, retail, and hotel buildings. Publicly disclosed annual energy use data from a local energy benchmarking program and anonymized data from the Building Performance Database, the nation’s largest dataset about energy-related characteristics of buildings, were utilized to validate and calibrate energy models via an innovative method comparing distributions of energy intensity by fuel type for portfolios of buildings of similar size, vintage, and use. Portfolio calibration does not provide certainty that an energy model fits an individual building; the method is useful when billing data is not accessible – a common situation for researchers, energy service providers and ESCOs, local governments, and any party other than a utility. A software component was developed, the BRICR gem, which automates simulation when relevant data is added or edited by the user to a file saved in the standardized BuildingSync XML schema for energy audit data. The component was demonstrated as a simplified means to generate a mass of energy models corresponding to public records containing basic attributes such as building scale, location, use, year built, and aspect ratio in combination with building energy code prototype data corresponding to use and vintage. The component was also demonstrated as a simplified means to automate energy simulation when attributes are revised; the intention was to enable iterative improvement of the baseline model and energy savings estimates for common energy conservation measures as users revise relevant attributes based on their observations. In the context of institutional change and uncertainty for the participating local government energy programs, 13 whole building retrofits were completed. Impacts were measured by applying the CalTRACK2.0 methods to standardize measurement of normalized metered energy consumption. The GRIDMeter methods of stratified sampling and individual load shape analysis were applied to adjust for impacts of the effect of COVID-19 on retrofitted buildings in the context of all local buildings of similar size and use. Excluding impacts of the pandemic, retrofitted buildings demonstrated between 1.6% and 25.1% reduction in energy use. The project contributed use cases and feedback that helped inform evolution of the software tools and data formats that were combined for the first time in the BRICR project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A finite element procedure for radio-frequency sheath–plasma interactions based on a sheath impedance model

A finite element code that solves self-consistent radio-frequency (RF) sheath-plasma interaction problems is improved by incorporating a generalized sheath boundary condition in the macroscopic solution scheme. This sheath boundary condition makes use of a complex sheath impedance including both the sheath capacitance and resistance, which enables evaluation of not only the RF voltage across the sheath but also the power dissipation in the sheath. The newly developed finite element procedure is applied to cases where the background magnetic field is perpendicular to the sheath surface in one- and two-dimensional domains filled by uniform low- and high-density plasmas. The numerical results are compared with those obtained by employing the previous capacitive sheath model at a typical frequency for ion cyclotron heating used in fusion experiments. It is shown that for sheaths on the order of 100 V in a high-density plasma, localized RF power deposition can reach a level which causes material damage. It is also shown that the sheath-plasma wave resonances predicted by the capacitive sheath model do not occur when parameters are such that the generalized sheath impedance model substantially modifies the capacitive character of the sheath. Here, possible explanations for the difference in the maximum RF sheath voltage depending on the plasma density are also discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluation of Precision Landing Performance Using A Generalized Aerospace Simulation in Simulink Framework

NASA’s science and exploration goals to return to the Moon and beyond will need to perform precision landings to place humans and cargo supplies near places of scientific interest, surface resources, or pre-established basecamps. With the maturation of new navigation technology, such as terrain relative navigation, precision landing is now feasible, enabling new exploration sites, such as the lunar poles. However, verification of precision landing performance becomes crucial since not reaching the designated landing site would have a high risk of loss of mission. Therefore, having a high-fidelity simulation platform to evaluate six degrees of freedom vehicle performance during high-risk phases of flight such landing is a fundamental part of the system verification and risk reduction. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has developed the GeneraLized Aerospace Simulation in Simulink® (GLASS) tool which incorporates guidance, navigation, and control algorithms, as well as vehicle and environmental models, such as gravity, vehicle mass properties, navigation sensors, propulsion, and terrain models. GLASS uses the MathWorks® Simulink® environment which provides a model-based design framework that allows the incorporation of vehicle models in a modular architecture. The Simulink® environment provides seamless integration with all the MathWorks® capabilities and toolboxes, such as control design toolboxes and Simscape™ Multibody™ dynamics toolbox. The MathWorks® environment also allows for guidance, navigation, and control algorithms to be auto coded in C language, enabling quick software and hardware in the loop testing. This paper provides an overview of GLASS capabilities for analyzing precision landing performance, including navigation trades applied to a NASA human lander reference design architecture.

Guidance↗

Numerical investigation of laser-driven shock interaction with a deformable particle

A laser-driven shock propagating through an isolated particle embedded in a plastic (CH) target was studied using the radiation-hydrodynamic code FLASH. Preliminary simulations using IONMIX equations of state (EOS) showed significant differences in the shock Hugoniot of aluminum compared to experimental data in the low-pressure regime [O(10) GPa], resulting in higher streamwise compression and deformation of an aluminum particle. Hence, a simple modification to the ideal gas EOS was developed and employed to describe the target materials and examine the particle dynamics. The evolution of the pressure field demonstrated a complex wave interaction, resulting in a highly unsteady particle drag which featured two drag minima due to shock focusing at the rear end of the particle and rarefaction stretching due to laser shut-off. Although ~30% lateral expansion and ~25% streamwise compression were observed, the aluminum particle maintained considerable integrity without significant distortion. Additional simulations examined the particle response for a range of particle densities, sizes, and acoustic impedances. The data revealed that lighter particles such as aluminum gained significant momentum, reaching up to ~96% of the shocked CH's speed, compared to ~29% for the heavier tungsten particles. Despite the differences seen in the early stage of shock interaction, particles with varying acoustic impedances ultimately reached the same peak velocity. This identified particle-to-host density ratio is an important factor in determining the inviscid terminal velocity of the particle. In addition, the modified EOS model presented in this study could be used to approximate solid materials in hydrocodes that lack material strength models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TEAMER: Pitching Foil Crossflow Turbine Efficiency Data

This dataset documents the efficiency testing of a pitching foil crossflow turbine, conducted at the University of New Hampshire's (UNH) Chase Ocean Engineering Laboratory tow tank facility. The tests explored various pitch phases and amplitudes, ranging from 0 to 18 degrees, across different flow speeds and turbine RPMs. Specifically, testing was performed at pitch amplitudes of 0,3,6,9,12,15 and 18 degrees. The results indicate that turbine efficiency improves with increased pitch amplitude, reaching optimal performance at 12 degrees. Modifications were made to the test frame by UNH to enhance the stiffness of the support structure. The testing specifically mapped the efficiency of a single quadrant of the Ocean Renewable Power Company (ORPC) Autonomous Turbine Generator Unit (ATGU), covering the full range of allowable pitching amplitudes and phases. The dataset provides both raw and processed data, including drag and torque measurements, and contains Python scripts used for data processing and visualization. This research was supported by funding from TEAMER RFTS 1 (Request for Technical Support).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Effects of target fragmentation on evaluation of LET spectra from space radiation in low-earth orbit (LEO) environment: impact on SEU predictions

Recent improvements in the radiation transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN and galactic cosmic ray environmental model have provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of target fragmentation on estimates of single event upset (SEU) rates for spacecraft memory devices. Since target fragments are mostly of very low energy, an SEU prediction model has been derived in terms of particle energy rather than linear energy transfer (LET) to account for nonlinear relationship between range and energy. Predictions are made for SEU rates observed on two Shuttle flights, each at low and high inclination orbit. Corrections due to track structure effects are made for both high energy ions with track structure larger than device sensitive volume and for low energy ions with dense track where charge recombination is important. Results indicate contributions from target fragments are relatively important at large shield depths (or any thick structure material) and at low inclination orbit. Consequently, a more consistent set of predictions for upset rates observed in these two flights is reached when compared to an earlier analysis with CREME model. It is also observed that the errors produced by assuming linear relationship in range and energy in the earlier analysis have fortuitously canceled out the errors for not considering target fragmentation and track structure effects.

STS-51 Shuttle Project↗

Effects of Target Fragmentation on Evaluation of LET Spectra From Space Radiation in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) Environment: Impact on SEU Predictions

Recent improvements in the radiation transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN and galactic cosmic ray environmental model have provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of target fragmentation on estimates of single event upset (SEU) rates for spacecraft memory devices. Since target fragments are mostly of very low energy, an SEU prediction model has been derived in terms of particle energy rather than linear energy transfer (LET) to account for nonlinear relationship between range and energy. Predictions are made for SEU rates observed on two Shuttle flights, each at low and high inclination orbit. Corrections due to track structure effects are made for both high energy ions with track structure larger than device sensitive volume and for low energy ions with dense track where charge recombination is important. Results indicate contributions from target fragments are relatively important at large shield depths (or any thick structure material) and at low inclination orbit. Consequently, a more consistent set of predictions for upset rates observed in these two flights is reached when compared to an earlier analysis with CREME model. It is also observed that the errors produced by assuming linear relationship in range and energy in the earlier analysis have fortuitously canceled out the errors for not considering target fragmentation and track structure effects.

Shinn, J. L.↗

Growing neoclassical tearing modes seeded via transient-induced-multimode interactions

Nonlinear extended magnetohydrodynamics simulations demonstrating seeding of neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) via magnetohydrodynamics-transient-induced multimode interactions are presented. Simulations of NTMs are enabled by two recent NIMROD code developments: the implementation of heuristic neoclassical stresses and the application of transient magnetic perturbations (MPs) at the boundary. NTMs are driven unstable by the inherently pressure driven kinetic bootstrap current, which arises due to collisional viscosity between passing and trapped electrons. These simulations use heuristic closures that model the neoclassical electron and ion stresses. NTM growth requires a seed island, which is generated by a transiently applied MP in simulations. The capability is demonstrated using kinetic-based reconstructions with flow of a DIII-D ITER Baseline Scenario discharge (La Haye et al., in Proceedings IAEA FEC, 2020). The applied MP seeds a 2/1 NTM that grows in two phases: a slow growth phase followed by a faster robust growth phase. Additionally, an evolving sequence of higher order core modes are excited at first. Power transfer analysis shows that nonlinear interactions between the core modes and the 2/1 helps drive the initial slow growth. Once the induced 2/1 magnetic island reaches a critical width, the NTM transitions to faster robust growth, which is well described by the nonlinear modified Rutherford equation. Furthermore, this work highlights the role of nonlinear mode coupling in seeding NTMs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A multiphysics coupling framework for exascale simulation of fracture evolution in subsurface energy applications

Predicting the evolution of fractured media is challenging due to coupled thermal, hydrological, chemical and mechanical processes that occur over a broad range of spatial scales, from the microscopic pore scale to field scale. We present a software framework and scientific workflow that couples the pore scale flow and reactive transport simulator Chombo-Crunch with the field scale geomechanics solver in GEOS to simulate fracture evolution in subsurface fluid-rock systems. This new multiphysics coupling capability comprises several novel features. An HDF5 data schema for coupling fracture positions between the two codes is employed and leverages the coarse resolution of the GEOS mechanics solver which limits the size of data coupled, and is, thus, not taxed by data resulting from the high resolution pore scale Chombo-Crunch solver. The coupling framework requires tracking of both before and after coarse nodal positions in GEOS as well as the resolved embedded boundary in Chombo-Crunch. We accomplished this by developing an approach to geometry generation that tracks the fracture interface between the two different methodologies. The GEOS quadrilateral mesh is converted to triangles which are organized into bins and an accessible tree structure; the nodes are then mapped to the Chombo representation using a continuous signed distance function that determines locations inside, on and outside of the fracture boundary. The GEOS positions are retained in memory on the Chombo-Crunch side of the coupling. The time stepping cadence for coupled multiphysics processes of flow, transport, reactions and mechanics is stable and demonstrates temporal reach to experimental time scales. The approach is validated by demonstration of 9 days of simulated time of a core flood experiment with fracture aperture evolution due to invasion of carbonated brine in wellbore-cement and sandstone. We also demonstrate usage of exascale computing resources by simulating a high resolution version of the validation problem on OLCF Frontier.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Validation of High Speed Earth Atmospheric Entry Radiative Heating from 9.5 to 15.5 km/s

This paper presents an overview of the analysis and measurements of equilibrium radiation obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility as a part of recent testing aimed at reaching shock velocities up to 15.5 km/s. The goal of these experiments was to measure the level of radiation encountered during high speed Earth entry conditions, such as would be relevant for an asteroid, inter-planetary or lunar return mission. These experiments provide the first spectrally and spatially resolved data for high speed Earth entry and cover conditions ranging from 9.5 to 15.5 km/s at 13.3 and 26.6 Pa (0.1 and 0.2 Torr). The present analysis endeavors to provide a validation of shock tube radiation measurements and simulations at high speed conditions. A comprehensive comparison between the spectrally resolved absolute equilibrium radiance measured in EAST and the predictive tools, NEQAIR and HARA, is presented. In order to provide a more accurate representation of the agreement between the experimental and simulation results, the integrated value of radiance has been compared across four spectral regions (VUV, UV/Vis, Vis/NIR and IR) as a function of velocity. Results have generally shown excellent agreement between the two codes and EAST data for the Vis through IR spectral regions, however, discrepancies have been identified in the VUV and parts of the UV spectral regions. As a result of the analysis presented in this paper, an updated parametric uncertainty for high speed radiation in air has been evaluated to be [9.0%, -6.3%]. Furthermore, due to the nature of the radiating environment at these high shock speeds, initial calculations aimed at modeling phenomena that become more significant with increasing shock speed have been performed. These phenomena include analyzing the radiating species emitting ahead of the shock and the increased significance of radiative cooling mechanisms.

Equilibrium↗

Innovations in optimization and control of accelerators using methods of differential geometry and genetic algorithms (Final Report)

Online tuning of particle accelerators is necessary in order to achieve optimal machine performance. However, it is also a major challenge due to the large parameter space which must be searched and the fact that many of the desir- able objectives compete with one another, and so will not reach their optimal values simultaneously. In order to mitigate these issues, we have explored using dimension-reduction techniques to reduce the size of the parameter space which must be searched and multi-objective genetic algorithms to obtain the sets of tuning parameters which provide pareto-optimal values for the objectives. These methods have enabled us to obtain improved values of the vertical emittance at the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), and to do so with greater control of orbit errors. Algorithmic tuning is a multidisciplinary endeavour, requiring expertise in beam dynamics, diagnostics, control systems and computer science, and thus a key practical problem is to formulate a common language in which experts with different specialties can communicate. We developed a solution to this problem in the form of a generic accelerator software interface that allows for rapid prototyping of optimization and control algorithms. Our interface is built on the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control Systems (EPICS) and makes possible testing control code in simulation before deployment on real accelerators, as well as deployment of third-party optimization code.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Relations between Shot Noise, Gain Bandwidth, and Saturation of Instabilities

There are numerous instabilities present in charged particle beams that undergo exponential growth and reach saturation. In various applications, such as free-electron lasers or micro-bunching light sources, achieving saturation is desirable. Conversely, there are applications where these instabilities are utilized as linear broad-band amplifiers for signals embedded in the charged beam. In the latter scenario, the saturation of an instability induces non-linear distortions in the imprinted signal, thereby limiting the useful range of such amplifiers. Accurate evaluation of these instabilities necessitates a complete and comprehensive modeling approach that includes shot noise within the beam. Unfortunately, such modeling is not always feasible or practical. In this paper, we introduce a methodology utilizing the frequency and bandwidth of the instability as key parameters. Through this, we derive an estimation for the range of linear instability growth. Our derivation is conducted in a model-independent manner, making it applicable to a broad spectrum of instabilities. To validate our approach, we employ established and thoroughly benchmarked simulations with a free electron laser (FEL) code as well as self-consistent 3-dimensional simulation of plasma-cascade instability using code SPACE.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗