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At least 577 records · Page 32

Deep learning for time series forecasting: a survey of recent advances

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, such as finance, healthcare, transportation, and scientific computing. In recent years, deep learning has become a powerful tool for modeling complex temporal patterns and improving forecasting accuracy. This survey provides an overview of recent deep learning approaches for time series forecasting, involving various architectures including RNNs, CNNs, GNNs, transformers, large language models, MLP-based models, and diffusion models. We first identify key challenges in the field, such as temporal dependency, efficiency, and cross-variable dependency, which drive the development of forecasting techniques. Then, the general advantages and limitations of each architecture are discussed to contextualize their adaptation in time series forecasting. Furthermore, we highlight promising design trends like multi-scale modeling, decomposition, and frequency-domain techniques, which are shaping the future of the field. This paper serves as a compact reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand the current landscape and future trajectory of deep learning in time series forecasting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High-Temperature Active Magnetic Bearing Development for Supercritical CO 2 Machinery Applications

Hermetic machinery utilizing gas bearings for MW-scale supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) machinery applications can have significantly lower power loss and enable improved cycle efficiency compared to conventional machinery with oil-lubricated bearings. Active magnetic bearings (AMBs) are another option anticipated to have similar power loss and load capacity to gas bearings as well as offering larger mechanical tolerances, the ability to tune properties, and high reliability due to lack of mechanical wear. AMBs also have proven commercial experience at MW-scale, though environments for high-temperature sCO 2 power cycle machinery conditions are novel. Besides the potential impact of AMBs for sCO 2 turbomachinery, the technology also offers promising benefits for steam and gas turbines for power generation, compressors and expanders for industrial heat and power, and in other oil and gas and space applications. The goals of this project were to conceptual design an AMB and perform material testing. Conceptual designs for radial and thrust AMBs were produced based on a hermetically-sealed sCO 2 machinery waste-heat recovery (WHR) application for sizing and loads, and choosing a target design temperature of 540°C useful for high-temperature sCO 2 turbines for concentrating solar power (CSP) applications. Conceptual designs were initially developed for multiple radial and thrust AMBs with spreadsheet-based calculations before selecting one of each to develop further using higher-fidelity design methods for magnetic and structural performance. It was found that the radial AMB at 540°C was feasible, but the thrust AMB needed to be limited to 315°C for high-speed operation. The decision for a reduced-temperature thrust AMB was the result of several significant conclusions: 1) Hiperco 50A, originally chosen for good magnetic performance at high temperature, had insufficient strength for high-speed operation, so it was replaced with 17-4 PH. 2) The reduced magnetic performance from 17-4 PH yielded a larger bearing size, reducing the strength margin. 3) This ultimately led to a creative design implementing a more-compact E-core topology, compared to the original (conventional) C-core, and an integral shaft-disk with Hirth joint connection. These conceptual designs are unique for the size and temperature in CO 2 , relevant for MW-scale CSP applications. Long term, high temperature test data was generated for several materials, filling a void in the current body of literature. Corrosion and magnetic performance measurements were produced for PM materials (Alnico 5-7C, Alnico 9C, and SmCo) with and without nickel-coating for environments of high-temperature CO 2 up to 550°C at atmospheric pressure and 450°C at 103 bar for up to 6,000 hours. Corrosion measurements were also produced for Hiperco 50, a SM material relevant for AMB laminations, with and without C5 coating. Comparisons were also made for 450°C and 550°C, atmospheric pressure air exposures up to 5,000 hours. Results generally show that coatings can be effective at improving oxidation resistance of the bare materials, and Alnicos generally outperformed SmCo after high-temperature exposure. In addition to technical feasibility demonstrated by the design, economic feasibility was demonstrated by updating the TEA from the reference machine, re-evaluating it with CAPEX and OPEX to reflect estimated changes from process-lubricated bearings to AMBs. AMBs were shown to be comparable in performance to process-lubricated bearings, still showing a notable improvement over conventional machinery architecture with oil-lubricated bearings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Space station power management and distribution

The power system architecture is presented by a series of schematics which illustrate the power management and distribution (PMAD) system at the component level, including converters, controllers, switchgear, rotary power transfer devices, power and data cables, remote power controllers, and load converters. Power distribution options, reference power management, and control strategy are also outlined. A summary of advanced development status and plans and an overview of system test plans are presented.

Teren, F.↗

Space Launch System Ascent Flight Control Design

A robust and flexible autopilot architecture for NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) family of launch vehicles is presented. As the SLS configurations represent a potentially significant increase in complexity and performance capability of the integrated flight vehicle, it was recognized early in the program that a new, generalized autopilot design should be formulated to fulfill the needs of this new space launch architecture. The present design concept is intended to leverage existing NASA and industry launch vehicle design experience and maintain the extensibility and modularity necessary to accommodate multiple vehicle configurations while relying on proven and flight-tested control design principles for large boost vehicles. The SLS flight control architecture combines a digital three-axis autopilot with traditional bending filters to support robust active or passive stabilization of the vehicle's bending and sloshing dynamics using optimally blended measurements from multiple rate gyros on the vehicle structure. The algorithm also relies on a pseudo-optimal control allocation scheme to maximize the performance capability of multiple vectored engines while accommodating throttling and engine failure contingencies in real time with negligible impact to stability characteristics. The architecture supports active in-flight load relief through the use of a nonlinear observer driven by acceleration measurements, and envelope expansion and robustness enhancement is obtained through the use of a multiplicative forward gain modulation law based upon a simple model reference adaptive control scheme.

VanZwieten, Tannen S.↗

Application of Micro-thrusters for Space Observatory Precision Attitude Control

This paper describes the results of a NASA investigation into the benefits of micro-thrusters compared to reaction wheels on future observatory-class missions with tight pointing stability requirements. Pointing repeatability and stability (i.e., jitter) requirements are key for space telescope missions of the future. For example, managing jitter is essential to being able to “image” planets orbiting distant stars. Jitter requirements for missions in this class are difficult to meet with current reaction wheel-based architectures. The reaction wheels are typically the largest pointing disturbance on the spacecraft. Disturbances from reaction wheels can be mitigated, typically by mechanically isolating the wheels, which imposes system complexity and cost. Thrusters capable of thrust forces in the micronewton (μN) range (referred to as micro-thrusters or micronewton thrusters) have been developed to support the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission, which requires drag-free control to place a test mass in near-perfect free-fall Beyond the drag-free control application, micro-thrusters could be used as a substitute for reaction wheels or as a supplement to wheels for fine pointing control. Used in this fashion, micro-thrusters have potential for reducing the cost and technical risks of achieving demanding pointing stability performance on observatory-class missions.

Chiang, Richard Y.↗

Traffic Control via Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs): An Open-Road Field Experiment with 100 CAVs

The CIRCLES project aims to reduce instabilities in traffic flow, which are naturally occurring phenomena due to human driving behavior. Also called “phantom jams” or “stop-and-go waves,” these instabilities are a significant source of wasted energy. Toward this goal, the CIRCLES project designed a control system, referred to as the MegaController by the CIRCLES team, that could be deployed in real traffic. Our field experiment, the MegaVanderTest (MVT), leveraged a heterogeneous fleet of 100 longitudinally controlled vehicles as Lagrangian traffic actuators, each of which ran a controller with the architecture described in this article. The MegaController is a hierarchical control architecture that consists of two main layers. The upper layer is called the Speed Planner and is a centralized optimal control algorithm. It assigns speed targets to the vehicles, conveyed through the LTE cellular network. The lower layer is a control layer, running on each vehicle. It performs local actuation by overriding the stock adaptive cruise controller, using the stock onboard sensors. The Speed Planner ingests live data feeds provided by third parties as well as data from our own control vehicles and uses both to perform the speed assignment. The architecture of the Speed Planner allows for the modular use of standard control techniques, such as optimal control, model predictive control (MPC), kernel methods, and others. The architecture of the local controller allows for the flexible implementation of local controllers. Corresponding techniques include deep reinforcement learning (RL), MPC, and explicit controllers. Depending on the vehicle architecture, all onboard sensing data can be accessed by the local controllers or only some. Likewise, control inputs vary across different automakers, with inputs ranging from torque or acceleration requests for some cars to electronic selection of adaptive cruise control (ACC) setpoints in others. The proposed architecture technically allows for the combination of all possible settings proposed previously, that is {Speed Planner algorithms} × {local Vehicle Controller algorithms} × {full or partial sensing} × {torque or speed control}. As a result, most configurations were tested throughout the ramp up to the MegaVandertest (MVT).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Distributed Simulation Software System for Multi-Spacecraft Missions

The paper will provide an overview of the web-based distributed simulation software system developed for end-to-end, multi-spacecraft mission design, analysis, and test at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). This software system was developed for an internal research and development (IR&D) activity at GSFC called the Distributed Space Systems (DSS) Distributed Synthesis Environment (DSE). The long-term goal of the DSS-DSE is to integrate existing GSFC stand-alone test beds, models, and simulation systems to create a "hands on", end-to-end simulation environment for mission design, trade studies and simulations. The short-term goal of the DSE was therefore to develop the system architecture, and then to prototype the core software simulation capability based on a distributed computing approach, with demonstrations of some key capabilities by the end of Fiscal Year 2002 (FY02). To achieve the DSS-DSE IR&D objective, the team adopted a reference model and mission upon which FY02 capabilities were developed. The software was prototyped according to the reference model, and demonstrations were conducted for the reference mission to validate interfaces, concepts, etc. The reference model, illustrated in Fig. 1, included both space and ground elements, with functional capabilities such as spacecraft dynamics and control, science data collection, space-to-space and space-to-ground communications, mission operations, science operations, and data processing, archival and distribution addressed.

Burns, Richard↗

An Internet Protocol-Based Software System for Real-Time, Closed-Loop, Multi-Spacecraft Mission Simulation Applications

The paper will provide an overview of the web-based distributed simulation software system developed for end-to-end, multi-spacecraft mission design, analysis, and test at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). This software system was developed for an internal research and development (IR&D) activity at GSFC called the Distributed Space Systems (DSS) Distributed Synthesis Environment (DSE). The long-term goal of the DSS-DSE is to integrate existing GSFC stand-alone test beds, models, and simulation systems to create a "hands on", end-to-end simulation environment for mission design, trade studies and simulations. The short-term goal of the DSE was therefore to develop the system architecture, and then to prototype the core software simulation capability based on a distributed computing approach, with demonstrations of some key capabilities by the end of Fiscal Year 2002 (FY02). To achieve the DSS-DSE IR&D objective, the team adopted a reference model and mission upon which FY02 capabilities were developed. The software was prototyped according to the reference model, and demonstrations were conducted for the reference mission to validate interfaces, concepts, etc. The reference model, illustrated in Fig. 1, included both space and ground elements, with functional capabilities such as spacecraft dynamics and control, science data collection, space-to-space and space-to-ground communications, mission operations, science operations, and data processing, archival and distribution addressed.

Davis, George↗

Development of NASA's Space Communications and Navigation Test Bed Aboard ISS to Investigate SDR, On-Board Networking and Navigation Technologies

NASA is developing an experimental flight payload (referred to as the Space Communication and Navigation (SCAN) Test Bed) to investigate software defined radio (SDR), networking, and navigation technologies, operationally in the space environment. The payload consists of three software defined radios each compliant to NASA s Space Telecommunications Radio System Architecture, a common software interface description standard for software defined radios. The software defined radios are new technology developments underway by NASA and industry partners. Planned for launch in early 2012, the payload will be externally mounted to the International Space Station truss and conduct experiments representative of future mission capability.

Reinhart, Richard C.↗

Space Communication and Navigation SDR Testbed, Overview and Opportunity for Experiments

NASA has developed an experimental flight payload (referred to as the Space Communication and Navigation (SCAN) Test Bed) to investigate software defined radio (SDR) communications, networking, and navigation technologies, operationally in the space environment. The payload consists of three software defined radios each compliant to NASAs Space Telecommunications Radio System Architecture, a common software interface description standard for software defined radios. The software defined radios are new technology developments underway by NASA and industry partners launched in 2012. The payload is externally mounted to the International Space Station truss to conduct experiments representative of future mission capability. Experiment operations include in-flight reconfiguration of the SDR waveform functions and payload networking software. The flight system will communicate with NASAs orbiting satellite relay network, the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System at both S-band and Ka-band and to any Earth-based compatible S-band ground station. The system is available for experiments by industry, academia, and other government agencies to participate in the SDR technology assessments and standards advancements.

Reinhart, Richard C.↗

Turbine Electrified Energy Management (TEEM) For Enabling More Efficient Engine Designs

NASA is investing in Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) research as part of an effort to assist industry in meeting the future needs of a global aviation market. The integration of electric machines into traditional turbine-based propulsion provides opportunities to change system architectures effecting radical improvements in propulsive efficiency. However, less consideration has been afforded to the utilization of these electrical machines to improve the thermal efficiency and performance of the gas turbine engine. Noting this deficit, a novel operability concept is proposed and is referred to as Turbine Electrified Energy Management (TEEM). The concept is a transient control technology that supplements the main fuel control for the suppression of the natural off-design dynamics associated with changes in engine operating state. Here the electric machines, used as engine actuators during the transient, add or extract torque from the engine shafts to maintain the speed-flow characteristics of steady-state design operation. This greatly reduces the need to maintain transient stall margin stack in the compressors, among other potential benefits. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of the concept in dynamic simulation using a Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) engine model of a NASA hybrid electric propulsion concept known as the Parallel Hybrid Electric Turbofan (hFan).

Culley, Dennis E.↗

Assessment of M2020 Terrain Relative Landing Accuracy: Flight Performance vs Predicts

Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) was a critical enabling Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) technology that enabled Mars 2020 mission Perseverance rover to land at Jezero crater. TRN pro-vides real-time, autonomous, map-relative position determination and generates a landing target based on a priori knowledge of hazards. The required performance for TRN was to land within 60m of the selected target. The required 60m was sub-allocated to various error sources in three major categories: targeting error, knowledge error, and control error. The targeting error is the error in selecting an appropriate landing target and the knowledge of the target on the surface. It includes the Lander Vision System (LVS) position localization with respect the ground, the synchronization between the Lander Vision System measurement and the main Navigation filter, and errors associated with the LVS Reference Map and Safe Target Selec-tion (STS). The knowledge error is the contribution of knowledge growth from the synchronization with LVS to touchdown. The control error encompasses how accurately the system could stay on the desired reference trajectory. The TRN error budget uses a combination of analysis, simulation, and hardware test-ing results to bound the various error contributions obtained during the verification and validation process. This paper first presents a description the TRN system, focusing on the architecture of LVS and STS. The paper then gives detailed overview of the TRN error budget, with a description of the major error contribu-tions in each of the three categories. Next, the paper gives the results for three versions of the error budget, pre-launch, in-flight pre-landing, and post-landing. The paper compares the pre-flight analysis, the pre-landing analysis using in-flight data during cruise, to the post-landing analysis of the TRN performance. Pre-landing analysis best estimate of the landing performance was 33m, compared to the 60m require-ment. Post-landing analysis estimated a landing accuracy of 8.53m or better, much better than the 33m pre-landing estimate. The actual post-landing imagery calculated the distance of the rover to the targeted location to be 5m. The post-landing analysis closely bounds the image-based assessment of landing accu-racy, indicating the success of the error budget architecture in bounding the landing accuracy, as well as the fidelity of the simulations used to model and predict performance.

Chen, Allen↗

Ares V: Enabling Unprecedented Payloads for Space in the 21st Century

Numerous technical and programmatic studies since the U.S. space program began in the 1960s has emphasized the need for a heavy lift capability for exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). The Saturn V once embodied that capability until it was retired. Now the Ares V cargo launch vehicle (CaLV) promises to restore and improve on that capability, providing unprecedented opportunities for human and robotic exploration, science, national security and commercial uses. This paper provides an overview of the capabilities of Ares V, both as an opportunity for payloads of increased mass and/or volume, and as a means of reducing risk in the payload design process. The Ares V is part of NASA s Constellation Program, which also includes the Ares I crew launch vehicle (CLV), Orion crew exploration vehicle (CEV), and Altair lunar lander. This architecture is designed to carry out the national space policy goals of completing the International Space Station (ISS), retiring the Space Shuttle fleet, and expanding human exploration beyond LEO. The Ares V is designed to loft upper stages and/or cargo, such as the Altair lander, into LEO. The Ares I is designed to put Orion into LEO with a crew of up to four for rendezvous with the ISS or with the Ares V Earth departure stage for journeys to the Moon. While retaining the goals of heritage hardware and commonality, the Ares V configuration continues to be refined through a series of internal trades. The current reference configuration was recommended by the Ares Projects and approved by the Constellation Program during the Lunar Capabilities Concept Review (LCCR) June 2008. The reference configuration defines the Ares V as 381 feet (116m) tall with a gross lift-off mass (GLOM) of 8.1 million pounds (3,704.5 mT). Its first stage will generate 11 million pounds of sea-level liftoff thrust. It will be capable of launching 413,800 pounds (187.7 mT) to LEO, 138,500 pounds (63 mT) direct to the Moon or 156,700 pounds (71.1 mT) in its dual-launch architecture role with Ares I. It could also launch 123,100 pounds (55.8 mT) to Sun-Earth L2. Assessment of astronomy payload requirements since Spring 2008 has indicated that Ares V has the potential to support a range of payloads and missions. Some of these missions were impossible in the absence of Ares V s capabilities. Collaborative design/architecture inputs, exchanges, and analyses have already begun between scientists and payload developers. A 2008 study by a National Research Council (NRC) panel, as well as analyses presented by astronomers and planetary scientists at two weekend conferences in 2008, support the position that Ares V has benefit to a broad range of planetary and astronomy missions. This early dialogue with Ares V engineers is permitting the greatest opportunity for payload/transportation/mission synergy and with the least financial impact to Ares V development. In addition, independent analyses suggest that Ares V has the opportunity to enable more cost-effective mission design. 1

Creech, Steve↗

Task-level control for autonomous robots

Task-level control refers to the integration and coordination of planning, perception, and real-time control to achieve given high-level goals. Autonomous mobile robots need task-level control to effectively achieve complex tasks in uncertain, dynamic environments. This paper describes the Task Control Architecture (TCA), an implemented system that provides commonly needed constructs for task-level control. Facilities provided by TCA include distributed communication, task decomposition and sequencing, resource management, monitoring and exception handling. TCA supports a design methodology in which robot systems are developed incrementally, starting first with deliberative plans that work in nominal situations, and then layering them with reactive behaviors that monitor plan execution and handle exceptions. To further support this approach, design and analysis tools are under development to provide ways of graphically viewing the system and validating its behavior.

Simmons, Reid↗

Fifth NASA Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies.

This document contains copies of those technical papers received in time for publication prior to the Fifth Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies. As one of an ongoing series, this conference continues to serve as a unique medium for the exchange of information on topics relating to the ingestion and management of substantial amounts of data and the attendant problems involved. This year's discussion topics include storage architecture, database management, data distribution, file system performance and modeling, and optical recording technology. There will also be a paper on Application Programming Interfaces (API) for a Physical Volume Repository (PVR) defined in Version 5 of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Reference Model (RM). In addition, there are papers on specific archives and storage products.

Kobler, Benjamin↗

Fifth NASA Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies

This document contains copies of those technical papers received in time for publication prior to the Fifth Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies held September 17 - 19, 1996, at the University of Maryland, University Conference Center in College Park, Maryland. As one of an ongoing series, this conference continues to serve as a unique medium for the exchange of information on topics relating to the ingestion and management of substantial amounts of data and the attendant problems involved. This year's discussion topics include storage architecture, database management, data distribution, file system performance and modeling, and optical recording technology. There will also be a paper on Application Programming Interfaces (API) for a Physical Volume Repository (PVR) defined in Version 5 of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Reference Model (RM). In addition, there are papers on specific archives and storage products.

Kobler, Benjamin↗

Reducing the Risk of Human Missions to Mars Through Testing

During the summer of 2002 the NASA Deputy Administrator charted an internal NASA planning group to develop the rationale for exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. This team, termed the Exploration Blueprint, performed architecture analyses to develop roadmaps for how to accomplish the first steps beyond Low-Earth Orbit through the human exploration of Mars. The previous NASA Exploration Team (NEXT) activities laid the foundation and framework for development of NASA s Integrated Space Plan. The reference missions resulting from the analysis performed by the Exploration Blueprint team formed the basis for requirement definition, systems development, technology roadmapping, and risk assessments for future human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. Emphasis was placed on developing recommendations on what could be done now to effect future exploration activities. The Exploration Blueprint team embraced the Stepping Stone approach to exploration where human and robotic activities are conducted through progressive expansion outward beyond low- Earth orbit. Results from this study produced a long-term strategy for exploration with near-term implementation plans, program recommendations, and technology investments. Specific results included the development of a common exploration crew vehicle concept, a unified space nuclear strategy, focused bioastronautics research objectives, and an integrated human and robotic exploration strategy. Recommendations from the Exploration Blueprint included the endorsement of the Nuclear Systems Initiative, augmentation of the bioastronautics research, a focused space transportation program including heavy-lift launch and a common exploration vehicle design for ISS and exploration missions, as well as an integrated human and robotic exploration strategy for Mars. Following the results of the Exploration Blueprint study, the NASA Administrator has asked for a recommendation by June, 2003 on the next steps in human and robotic exploration in order to put into context an updated Integrated Space Transportation Plan (post- Columbia) and guide Agency planning. NASA was on the verge of committing significant funding in programs that would be better served if longer term goals were better known including the Orbital Space Plane, research on the ISS, National Aerospace Initiative, Shuttle Life Extension Program, Project Prometheus, as well as a wide range of technology development throughout the Agency. Much of the focus during this period was on integrating the results from the previous studies into more concrete implementation strategies in order to understand the relationship between NASA programs, timing, and resulting budgetary implications. This resulted in an integrated approach including lunar surface operations to retire risk of human Mars missions, maximum use of common and modular systems including what was termed the exploration transfer vehicle, Earth orbit and lunar surface demonstrations of long-life systems, collaboration of human and robotic missions to vastly increase mission return, and high-efficiency transportation systems (nuclear) for deep-space transportation and power. The data provided in this summary viewgraph presentation was developed to begin to address one of the key elements of the emerging implementation strategy, namely how lunar missions help retire risk of human missions to Mars. During this process the scope of the activity broadened into the issue of how testing in general, in various venues including the Moon, can help reduce the risk for Mars missions.

Drake, Bret G.↗

Design and Analysis of a Formation Flying System for the Cross-Scale Mission Concept

The ESA-funded "Cross-Scale Technology Reference Study has been carried out with the primary aim to identify and analyse a mission concept for the investigation of fundamental space plasma processes that involve dynamical non-linear coupling across multiple length scales. To fulfill this scientific mission goal, a constellation of spacecraft is required, flying in loose formations around the Earth and sampling three characteristic plasma scale distances simultaneously, with at least two satellites per scale: electron kinetic (~10 km), ion kinetic (~100-2000 km), magnetospheric fluid (~3000-15000 km). The key Cross-Scale mission drivers identified are the number of S/C, the space segment configuration, the reference orbit design, the transfer and deployment strategy, the inter-satellite localization and synchronization process and the mission operations. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the mission design and analysis for the Cross-Scale concept and outlines a technically feasible mission architecture for a multi-dimensional investigation of space plasma phenomena. The main effort has been devoted to apply a thorough mission-level trade-off approach and to accomplish an exhaustive analysis, so as to allow the characterization of a wide range of mission requirements and design solutions.

Cornara, Stefania↗