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NASA NTRS2014

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

climate↗

NASA NTRS1994

The HST quasar absorption line key project. 9: An emission-line study of PG 2251+113

We present Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and quasi-simultaneous ground-based observations of the z = 0.3252 QSO PG 2251+113. We find a correlation between line widths and the critical density for de-excitation of the forbidden emission lines observed in this object. We can show that this correlation also applies to the semiforbidden and possibly also the permitted lines which arise in the broad emission-line region. While this result was predicted from statistical studies, it has never previously been shown to hold in detail in any individual object. This relationship between the narrow and broad emission-line regions may help constrain dynamical models of both regions. We examine the implications of this result for a simple radial infall model of the emitting gas developed to explain the origin of narrow-line profiles.

Espey, Brian R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Role of Self-Organized Criticality in the Substorm Phenomenon and its Relation to Localized Reconnection in the Magnetospheric Plasma Sheet

Evidence is presented that suggests there is a significant self-organized criticality (SOC) component in the dynamics of substorms in the magnetosphere. Observations of BBFs, fast flows, localized dipolarizations, plasma turbulence, etc. are taken to show that multiple localized reconnection sites provide the basic avalanche phenomenon in the establishment of SOC in the plasma sheet. First results are presented from a continuing plasma physical study of this avalanche process. A one-dimensional resistive MHD model of a magnetic field reversal is discussed. Resistivity, in this model, is self-consistently generated in response to the excitation of an idealized current-driven instability. When forced by convection of magnetic flux into the field reversal region, the model yields rapid magnetic field annihilation through a dynamic behavior that is shown to exhibit many of the characteristics of SOC. Over a large range of forcing strengths, the annihilation rate is shown to self-adjust to balance the rate at which flux is convected into the reversal region. Several analogies to magnetotail dynamics are discussed: (1) It is shown that the presence of a localized criticality in the model produces a remarkable stability in the global configuration of the field reversal while simultaneously exciting extraordinarily dynamic internal evolution. (2) Under steady forcing, it is shown that a loading-unloading cycle may arise that, as a consequence of the global stability, is quasi-periodic and, therefore, predictable despite the presence of internal turbulence in the field distribution. Indeed, it is shown that the global loading-unloading cycle is a consequence of the internal turbulence. (3) It is shown that, under steady, strong forcing the loading-unloading cycle vanishes. Instead, a recovery from a single unloading persists indefinitely. The field reversal is globally very steady while internally it is very dynamic as field annihilation goes on at the rate necessary to match the strong forcing. From this result we speculate that steady magnetospheric convection events result when the plasma sheet has been driven close to criticality over an extended spatial domain. During these events, we would expect to find localized reconnection sites distributed over the spatial domain of near criticality and we would expect to find plasma sheet transport in that domain to be closely related to that of BBF and fast flow events.

Klimas, Alex J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Initial results from a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system and comparisons with the AVE-SESAME I data set

The development of a comprehensive mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS) is described in detail. The modeling system is designed for both research and real-time forecast applications. The 14-level numerical model, which has a 48 km grid mesh, can be run over most of North America and the adjacent oceanic regions. The model employs sixth-order accurate numerics, generalized similarity theory boundary-layer physics, a sophisticated cumulus parameterization scheme, and state of the art analysis and initialization techniques. Examples of model output on the synoptic and subsynoptic scales are presented for the AVE-SESAME I field experiment on 10-11 April 1979. The model output is subjectively compared to the observational analysis and the LFM II output on the synoptic scale. Subsynoptic model output is compared to analyses generated from the AVE-SESAME I data set.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Vehicle/Atmosphere Interaction Glows: Far Ultraviolet, Visible, and Infrared

Spacecraft glow information has been gathered from a number of spacecraft including Atmospheric and Dynamic satellites, and Space Shuttles (numerous flights) with dedicated pallet flow observations on STS-39 (DOD) and STS-62 (NASA). In addition, a larger number of laboratory experiments with low energy oxygen beam studies have made important contributions to glow understanding. The following report provides information on three engineering models developed for spacecraft glow including the far ultraviolet to ultraviolet (1400-4000 A), and infrared (0.9-40 microns) spectral regions. The models include effects resulting from atmospheric density/altitude, spacecraft temperature, spacecraft material, and ram angle. Glow brightness would be predicted as a function of distance from surfaces for all wavelengths.

Swenson, G.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Modeling of radiative heating of base region of Jovian entry probe

The mechanism of radiative heating of the afterbody region of Jovian entry probe is analyzed. A theoretical model is derived to determine the average thermodynamic properties in the expanding region, recirculating region, recompression region, and neck region through application of one-dimensional conservation equations. Flow parameters are obtained from the shadowgraphs of a free-flight test. Radiative transfer is calculated using spectrally detailed computer codes accounting for nonequilibrium. The results show that the most severe heating occurs immediately behind the frustum, and that the recompression and neck regions are the major sources of radiation that heats the base stagnation point. The radiation flux to the base point is slightly stronger with ablation than without, its value being 0.11(43Pb/Ps)squared times that to the front stagnation point, where Pb/Ps is the ratio of base-to-front stagnation point pressures and its value is in the range 0.023-0.066. The time-integrated heat load to the base point is 18(43Pb/Ps)squared kJ/sq cm. Existing experimental data are shown to agree with the theoretical prediction.

Park, C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Driving terrestrial ecosystem models from space

Regional air pollution, land-use conversion, and projected climate change all affect ecosystem processes at large scales. Changes in vegetation cover and growth dynamics can impact the functioning of ecosystems, carbon fluxes, and climate. As a result, there is a need to assess and monitor vegetation structure and function comprehensively at regional to global scales. To provide a test of our present understanding of how ecosystems operate at large scales we can compare model predictions of CO2, O2, and methane exchange with the atmosphere against regional measurements of interannual variation in the atmospheric concentration of these gases. Recent advances in remote sensing of the Earth's surface are beginning to provide methods for estimating important ecosystem variables at large scales. Ecologists attempting to generalize across landscapes have made extensive use of models and remote sensing technology. The success of such ventures is dependent on merging insights and expertise from two distinct fields. Ecologists must provide the understanding of how well models emulate important biological variables and their interactions; experts in remote sensing must provide the biophysical interpretation of complex optical reflectance and radar backscatter data.

Waring, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Visualization and modeling of factors influencing visibility in computer-aided crewstation design

We have developed two modules for use in computer-aided design (CAD) of crewstation environments that enhance the designer's appreciation of factors influencing the pilot's vision and visual processing capacity. The Binocular Optics Module (BOM) is an interactive tool for visualizing geometric aspects of (1) how retinal imagery of the environment changes on the pilot's retinas under conditions of eye and object motion, and (2) how visual capabilities that can be modeled as regions or contours on the retinas, affect spatial perception of the environment. The Visual Performance Module (VPM) contains a signal processing model of human visual discrimination that quantitatively predicts visual discrimination performance. The outputs of the VPM are retinal contours that represent performance probabilities. These contours may be used as inputs to the BOM for visualizing those volumes of space within the crewstation that bound different levels of the pilot's of visual discrimination capability. Used together, the BOM and VPM provide the designer with the opportunity to interactively explore relationships between environmental retinal imagery and visual function, and the ability to factor the pilot's visual capabilities into the earliest phases of crewstation CAD.

Arditi, Aries↗

NASA NTRS2011

Enceladus and Europa: How Does Hydrothermal Activity Begin at the Surface?

The question of how the surface hydrothermal activity (e.g., eruptive plumes and heat flow) is initiated can be addressed within the frame-work of our "Perrier Ocean" model. This model delivers the necessary heat and chemicals to support the heat flow and plumes observed by Cassini in Enceladus' South Polar Region. The model employs closed-loop circulation of water from a sub-surface ocean. The ocean is the main reservoir of heat and chemicals, including dissolved gases. As ocean water moves up toward the surface, pressure is re-duced and gases exsolve forming bubbles. This bub-bly mixture is less dense than the icy crust and the buoyant ocean-water mixture rises toward the surface. Near the surface, heat and chemicals, including some volatiles, are delivered to the chambers in which plumes form and also to shallow reservoirs that keep the surface ice "warm". (Plume operations, per se, are as described by Schmidt et al. and Postberg et al. and are adopted by us.) After transferring heat, the water cools, bubbles contract and dissolve, and the mixture is now relatively dense. It descends through cracks in the crust and returns to the ocean. Once the closed-loop circulation has started it is self-sustaining. Loss of water via the erupting plumes is relatively negligible compared to the amount needed to maintain the heat flow.We note that the activity described herein for the the "Perrier-Ocean" model could, a priori, apply to all small icy bodies that sheltered an interior ocean at some point in their history.

Enceladus↗

NASA NTRS1984

Modeling of energy buildup for a flare-productive region

A self-consistent MHD model of shearing magnetic loops is used to investigate magnetic energy buildup in active region AR 2372 (Boulder number), in the period of April 5-7, 1980. The magnetic field and sunspot motions in this region, derived using observational data obtained by the Marshall Space Flight Center Solar Observatory, suggest the initial boundary conditions for the model. It is found that the plasma parameters (i.e., density, temperature, and plasma flow velocity) do not change appreciably during the process of energy buildup as the magnetic loops are sheared. Thus, almost all of the added energy is stored in the magnetic field. Furthermore, it is shown that dynamical processes are not important during a slow buildup (i.e., for a shearing velocity less than 1 km/s). Finally, it is concluded that the amount of magnetic energy stored and the location of this stored magnetic energy depend on the initial magnetic field (whether potential or sheared) and the magnitude of the shearing motion.

Wu, S. T.↗

NASA NTRS2000

THRSTER: A Three-Stream Ejector Ramjet Analysis and Design Tool

An engineering tool for analyzing ejectors in rocket based combined cycle (RBCC) engines has been developed. A key technology for multi-cycle RBCC propulsion systems is the ejector which functions as the compression stage of the ejector ramjet cycle. The THRee STream Ejector Ramjet analysis tool was developed to analyze the complex aerothermodynamic and combustion processes that occur in this device. The formulated model consists of three quasi-one-dimensional streams, one each for the ejector primary flow, the secondary flow, and the mixed region. The model space marches through the mixer, combustor, and nozzle to evaluate the solution along the engine. In its present form, the model is intended for an analysis mode in which the diffusion rates of the primary and secondary into the mixed stream are stipulated. The model offers the ability to analyze the highly two-dimensional ejector flowfield while still benefits from the simplicity and speed of an engineering tool. To validate the developed code, wall static pressure measurements from the Penn-State and NASA-ART RBCC experiments were used to compare with the results generated by the code. The calculated solutions were generally found to have satisfactory agreement with the pressure measurements along the engines, although further modeling effort may be required when a strong shock train is formed at the rocket exhaust. The range of parameters in which the code would generate valid results are presented and discussed.

Chue, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS2000

THRSTER: A THRee-STream Ejector Ramjet Analysis and Design Tool

Chue, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

GRGM900C: A Degree 900 Lunar Gravity Model from GRAIL Primary and Extended Mission Data

We have derived a gravity field solution in spherical harmonics to degree and order 900, GRGM900C, from the tracking data of the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) Primary (1 March to 29 May 2012) and Extended Missions (30 August to 14 December 2012). A power law constraint of 3.6 × 10(exp −4)/l(exp 2) was applied only for degree l greater than 600. The model produces global correlations of gravity, and gravity predicted from lunar topography of greater than or equal to 0.98 through degree 638. The model's degree strength varies from a minimum of 575-675 over the central nearside and farside to 900 over the polar regions. The model fits the Extended Mission Ka-Band Range Rate data through 17 November 2012 at 0.13 micrometers/s RMS, whereas the last month of Ka-Band Range-Rate data obtained from altitudes of 2-10 km fit at 0.98 micrometers/s RMS, indicating that there is still signal inherent in the tracking data beyond degree 900.

Gravity↗

NASA NTRS1986

Elysium region, Mars - Tests of lithospheric loading models for the formation of tectonic features

The hypothesis that the tectonic features in the Elysium region are the product of stress produced by loading of the Martian lithosphere is tested. The lithospheric loading models for the formation of tectonic features in the Elysium region are evaluated under local loading, regional loading of the lithosphere from above and below, and quasi-global loading by Tharsis. The physiographic features in the Elysium region are described. The stress fields predicted by volcanic loading and uplift of the Martian lithosphere are compared with the tectonic features in the Elysium region. It is noted that the comparison suggests the succession of stress fields operating at different times in the region and supports the hypothesis.

Hall, J. Lynn↗

NASA NTRS2009

Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Region

A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation greenness from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2002. The NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model estimates of annual forest production were used for the first time as the basis to generate a prediction for the standing pool of carbon in above-ground biomass (AGB; gC/sq m) for forested areas of the Brazilian Amazon region. Plot-level measurements of the residence time of carbon in wood in Amazon forest from Malhi et al. (2006) were interpolated by inverse distance weighting algorithms and used with CASA to generate a new regional map of AGB. Data from the Brazilian PRODES (Estimativa do Desflorestamento da Amazonia) project were used to map deforested areas. Results show that net primary production (NPP) sinks for carbon varied between 4.25 Pg C/yr (1 Pg=10(exp 15)g) and 4.34 Pg C for the region and were highest across the eastern and northern Amazon areas, whereas deforestation sources of CO2 flux from decomposition of residual woody debris were higher and less seasonal in the central Amazon than in the eastern and southern areas. Increased woody debris from past deforestation events was predicted to alter the net ecosystem carbon balance of the Amazon region to generate annual CO2 source fluxes at least two times higher than previously predicted by CASA modeling studies. Variations in climate, land cover, and forest burning were predicted to release carbon at rates of 0.5 to 1 Pg C/yr from the Brazilian Amazon. When direct deforestation emissions of CO2 from forest burning of between 0.2 and 0.6 Pg C/yr in the Legal Amazon are overlooked in regional budgets, the year-to-year variations in this net biome flux may appear to be large, whereas our model results implies net biome fluxes had actually been relatively consistent from year to year during the period 2000-2002. This is the first study to use MODIS data to model all carbon pools (wood, leaf, root) dynamically in simulations of Amazon forest deforestation from clearing and burning of all kinds.

Potter, C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Using CO2:CO Correlations to Improve Inverse Analyses of Carbon Fluxes

Observed correlations between atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CO represent potentially powerful information for improving CO2 surface flux estimates through coupled CO2-CO inverse analyses. We explore the value of these correlations in improving estimates of regional CO2 fluxes in east Asia by using aircraft observations of CO2 and CO from the TRACE-P campaign over the NW Pacific in March 2001. Our inverse model uses regional CO2 and CO surface fluxes as the state vector, separating biospheric and combustion contributions to CO2. CO2-CO error correlation coefficients are included in the inversion as off-diagonal entries in the a priori and observation error covariance matrices. We derive error correlations in a priori combustion source estimates of CO2 and CO by propagating error estimates of fuel consumption rates and emission factors. However, we find that these correlations are weak because CO source uncertainties are mostly determined by emission factors. Observed correlations between atmospheric CO2 and CO concentrations imply corresponding error correlations in the chemical transport model used as the forward model for the inversion. These error correlations in excess of 0.7, as derived from the TRACE-P data, enable a coupled CO2-CO inversion to achieve significant improvement over a CO2-only inversion for quantifying regional fluxes of CO2.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Numerical Modeling of HgCdTe Solidification: Effects of Phase Diagram, Double-Diffusion Convection and Microgravity Level

Melt convection, along with species diffusion and segregation on the solidification interface are the primary factors responsible for species redistribution during HgCdTe crystal growth from the melt. As no direct information about convection velocity is available, numerical modeling is a logical approach to estimate convection. Furthermore influence of microgravity level, double-diffusion and material properties should be taken into account. In the present study, HgCdTe is considered as a binary alloy with melting temperature available from a phase diagram. The numerical model of convection and solidification of binary alloy is based on the general equations of heat and mass transfer in two-dimensional region. Mathematical modeling of binary alloy solidification is still a challenging numericial problem. A Rigorous mathematical approach to this problem is available only when convection is not considered at all. The proposed numerical model was developed using the finite element code FIDAP. In the present study, the numerical model is used to consider thermal, solutal convection and a double diffusion source of mass transport.

Bune, Andris V.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Integrating continuous atmospheric boundary layer and tower-based flux measurements to advance understanding of land-atmosphere interactions

The atmospheric boundary layer mediates the exchange of energy, matter, and momentum between the land surface and the free troposphere, integrating a range of physical, chemical, and biological processes and is defined as the lowest layer of the atmosphere (ranging from a few meters to 3 km). In this review, we investigate how continuous, automated observations of the atmospheric boundary layer can enhance the scientific value of co-located eddy covariance measurements of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, as are being made at FLUXNET sites worldwide. We highlight four key opportunities to integrate tower-based flux measurements with continuous, long-term atmospheric boundary layer measurements: (1) to interpret surface flux and atmospheric boundary layer exchange dynamics and feedbacks at flux tower sites, (2) to support flux footprint modelling, the interpretation of surface fluxes in heterogeneous and mountainous terrain, and quality control of eddy covariance flux measurements, (3) to support regional-scale modeling and upscaling of surface fluxes to continental scales, and (4) to quantify land-atmosphere coupling and validate its representation in Earth system models. Adding a suite of atmospheric boundary layer measurements to eddy covariance flux tower sites, and supporting the sharing of these data to tower networks, would allow the Earth science community to address new emerging research questions, better interpret ongoing flux tower measurements, and would present novel opportunities for collaborations between FLUXNET scientists and atmospheric and remote sensing scientists.

Manuel Helbig↗