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DOE OSTI2025

Predictive Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification in Condition Monitoring of Active Components: A Reactor Coolant Pump Use Case

This work develops data-driven models for onset of thermal barrier leakage in reactor coolant pumps. It incorporates uncertainty quantification to enhance the reliability and robustness of pre- dictions. Using synthetic data generated by the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator, realistic degradation scenarios were simulated across lifecycle stages—beginning, middle, and end of life. Key variables, including differential pressure, flow rate, vibration, and temperatures, were analyzed using machine learning framework. The fully connected neural network models demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving R2 scores exceeding 0.99 and root mean square errors as low as around 8.23 × 10-2 gallon per minute (gpm) for the three stages of the lifecy- cle. UQ analysis further validated the model’s robustness, with narrow uncertainty bounds during steady-state operations and appropriately wider bounds during transitional phases, reflecting the physical behavior of the system. This work addresses important gaps in real-time condition moni- toring and regulatory compliance by integrating advanced condition monitoring technologies with UQ into IST programs. The ability to detect thermal barrier leakage early and quantify prediction reliability supports optimizing maintenance strategies while ensuring nuclear power plants’ safe and reliable operation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Marine Hydrogen Demonstration

This report summarizes Phase 1 of a project involving the design of a Floating Hydrogen Production and Dispensing Barge destined for the Port of San Francisco (SF). The H 2 Barge is designed to produce renewable H 2 at the rate of ~ 530 kg/day, storing 512 kg of hydrogen at 517-bar, allowing fast refueling of hydrogen fuel cell vessels and land-side hydrogen delivery trailers for distribution into the nascent SF hydrogen ecosystem. The broader considerations that impacted the H2 Barge design are also described. An account is given of a new review process formulated by the United States Coast Guard (USCG) to review this first-of-its-kind maritime implementation of hydrogen technology. The immediate goals of the H 2 Barge Project are to 1) demonstrate the feasibility, viability and methods of hydrogen production, storage and fueling in a maritime context, 2) help shape (where needed) and navigate the required local, state and federal regulatory gauntlet and 3) catalyze a “green hydrogen ecosystem” (both marine and landside) with locally produced renewable hydrogen at the San Francisco waterfront. A summary is also given of the modeling and experimental activity of Phase 1 directed to the development of science-based refueling protocols for large marine Type IV 250-bar hydrogen tanks. Combined modeling and experimental studies are reported of the filling of large (28 kg) 250-bar Type IV hydrogen tanks of the type being deployed on early hydrogen ferries, such as the MV Sea Change. The primary question was to determine how such tanks can be successfully filled (state of charge greater than 97%) within 45 minutes without exceeding the 82 °C temperature limit historically set for such tanks. The studies show that a gas injector is needed avoid thermal stratification during filling which can result in potential hot spots. Pre-cooling of the hydrogen was found to be essential in most cases, as ambient conditions greatly affect the need for a pre-cooling to achieve the 45-minute fill time. Pre-cooling cannot be supplied by nearby water, such as that found in nature (bays, lakes, rivers, etc.) because pre-cooling cooling below 0 °C was found to be necessary to avoid excessive compression heating. The experimental results afforded a calibration of the engineering model (SOFIL) for these large 250-bar tanks, which now enables using SOFIL to predict volume-averaged hydrogen filling temperatures to an accuracy of +/- 2.7°C for these tanks. The model can therefore be used to evaluate potential scenarios for development of a standardized fueling methodology for ferries utilizing large Type-IV tanks of the type examined here.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2002

Genetic basis of clinical catecholamine disorders

Norepinephrine and epinephrine are critical determinants of minute-to-minute regulation of blood pressure. Here we review the characterization of two syndromes associated with a genetic abnormality in the noradrenergic pathway. In 1986, we reported a congenital syndrome of undetectable tissue and circulating levels of norepinephrine and epinephrine, elevated levels of dopamine, and absence of dopamine-beta-hydroxylase (DBH). These patients appeared with ptosis and severe orthostatic hypotension and lacked sympathetic noradrenergic function. In two persons with DBH deficiency, we identified seven novel polymorphisms. Both patients are compound heterozygotes for a variant that affects expression of DBH protein via impairment of splicing. Patient 1 also has a missense mutation in DBH exon 2, and patient 2 carries missense mutations in exons 1 and 6. Orthostatic intolerance is a common syndrome affecting young women, presenting with orthostatic tachycardia and symptoms of cerebral hypoperfusion on standing. We tested the hypothesis that abnormal norepinephrine transporter (NET) function might contribute to its etiology. In our proband, we found an elevated plasma norepinephrine with standing that was disproportionate to the increase in levels of dihydroxphenylglycol, as well as impaired norepinephrine clearance and tyramine resistance. Studies of NET gene structure revealed a coding mutation converting a conserved alanine residue in transmembrane domain 9 to proline. Analysis of the protein produced by the mutant cDNA demonstrated greater than 98% reduction in activity relative to normal. The finding of genetic mutations responsible for DBH deficiency and orthostatic intolerance leads us to believe that genetic causes of other autonomic disorders will be found, enabling us to design more effective therapeutic interventions.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2000

Bioelectrical impedance analysis. What does it measure?

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) has been proposed for measuring fat-free mass, total body water, percent fat, body cell mass, intracellular water, and extracellular water: a veritable laboratory in a box. Although it is unlikely that BIA is quite this versatile, correlations have been demonstrated between BIA and all of these body compartments. At the same time, it is known that all of the compartments are correlated among themselves. Because of this, it is difficult to determine whether BIA is specific for any or all of these compartments. To investigate this question, we induced acute changes in total body water and its compartments over a 3-h period. Using this approach, we demonstrated that multifrequency BIA, using the Cole-Cole model to calculate the zero frequency and infinite frequency resistance, measures extracellular and intracellular water.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

NASA NTRS1996

Osteoblast hydraulic conductivity is regulated by calcitonin and parathyroid hormone

It is our hypothesis that osteoblasts play a major role in regulating bone (re)modeling by regulating interstitial fluid (ISF) flow through individual bone compartments. We hypothesize that osteoblasts of the blood-bone membrane lining the bone surfaces are capable of regulating transosseous fluid flow. This regulatory function of the osteoblasts was tested in vitro by culturing a layer of rat calvarial osteoblasts on porous membranes. Such a layer of osteoblasts subjected to 7.3 mm Hg of hydrostatic pressure posed a significant resistance to fluid flow across the cell layer similar in magnitude to the resistance posed by endothelial monolayers in vitro. The hydraulic conductivity, the volumetric fluid flux per unit pressure drop, of the osteoblast layer was altered in response to certain hormones. Hydraulic conductivity decreased approximately 40% in response to 33 nM parathyroid hormone, while it exhibited biphasic behavior in response to calcitonin: increased 40% in response to 100 nM calcitonin and decreased 40% in response to 1000 nM calcitonin. Further, activation of adenylate cyclase by forskolin dramatically increased the hydraulic conductivity, while elevation of intracellular calcium, [Ca2+]i, by the calcium ionophore A23187 initially decreased the hydraulic conductivity at 5 minutes before increasing conductivity by 30 minutes. These results suggest that cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) and [Ca2+]i may mediate changes in the osteoblast hydraulic conductivity. The increase in hydraulic conductivity in response to 100 nM calcitonin and the decrease in response to PTH suggest that the stimulatory and inhibitory effects on bone formation of calcitonin and parathyroid hormone, respectively, may be due in part to alterations in bone fluid flow.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improved departure from nucleate boiling prediction in rod bundles using a physics-informed machine learning-aided framework

The critical heat flux (CHF) corresponding to the departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) crisis is a regulatory limit for the licensing of pressurized water reactors (PWRs) worldwide. Despite the abundance of predictive tools available to the reactor thermal-hydraulics community, the path for an accurate CHF model remains elusive. This work approaches the prediction of DNB through a physics-informed machine learning-aided framework (PIMLAF) with the objective of achieving superior predictive capabilities for a rod bundle. In view of the limitations in existing macro-scale physics-driven tools, an improved mechanistic model is first proposed, leveraging key concepts in the liquid sublayer dryout and bubble crowding mechanisms. Furthermore, the proposed mechanistic model is able to predict DNB in different heater geometries for a broad range of flow conditions without the need for recalibration. This model is then incorporated as the physics-informed component of the hybrid framework PIMLAF, which takes advantage of established understanding in the field (i.e., domain knowledge [DK]) and uses machine learning (ML) to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch between the actual and DK-predicted output. Two bundle-related case studies using the PWR subchannel and bundle tests (PSBT) database are carried out to illustrate the PIMLAF’s improved performance over traditional approaches for both interpolation and extrapolation purposes. In light of the PIMLAF’s promising potential to reduce prediction error, reactor vendors are encouraged to leverage their in-house experimental efforts and apply the hybrid framework to potentially achieve margin reductions in the minimum DNB ratio (MDNBR) for the designs of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative analysis of the functional properties of human and mouse ferroportin

Ferroportin (Fpn)—expressed at the plasma membrane of macrophages, enterocytes, and hepatocytes—mediates the transfer of cellular iron into the blood plasma. Under the control of the iron-regulatory hormone hepcidin, Fpn serves a critical role in systemic iron homeostasis. Although we have previously characterized human Fpn, a great deal of research in iron homeostasis and disorders uses mouse models. By way of example, the flatiron mouse, a model of classical ferroportin disease, bears the mutation H32R in Fpn and is characterized by systemic iron deficiency and macrophage iron retention. The flatiron mouse also appears to exhibit a manganese phenotype, raising the possibility that mouse Fpn serves a role in manganese metabolism. At odds with this observation, we have found that human Fpn does not transport manganese, so we considered the possibility that a species difference could explain this discrepancy. We tested the hypothesis that mouse but not human Fpn can transport manganese and performed a comparative analysis of mouse and human Fpn. We examined the functional properties of human Fpn, mouse Fpn, and mutant mouse Fpn by using radiotracer assays in RNA-injected Xenopus oocytes. We found that neither mouse nor human Fpn transports manganese. Mouse and human Fpn share identical properties with respect to substrate profile, calcium dependence, optimal pH, and hepcidin sensitivity. We have also demonstrated that Fpn is not an ATPase pump. Our findings validate the use of mouse models of ferroportin function in iron homeostasis and disease.

Cell Biology↗

DOE OSTI2020

CY2019 Annual Closure Monitoring Report for Corrective Action Unit 98, Frenchman Flat, Underground Test Area, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada (January 2019–December 2019), Revision 1

Three types of monitoring are performed for CAU 98: water quality, water level, and institutional control. These are monitored to determine whether the URs remain protective of human health and the environment, and to ensure that the regulatory boundary objectives are being met. Monitoring data will be used in the future, once multiple years of data are available, to evaluate consistency with the groundwater flow and contaminant transport models because the contaminant boundaries calculated with the models are the primary basis of the UR boundaries. Six wells were sampled for water-quality monitoring in 2019. Contaminants of concern were detected only in the two source/plume wells already known to contain contamination as a result of a radionuclide migration experiment. Tritium concentrations in both of these wells, RNM-2S and UE-5n, remain above the Safe Drinking Water Act maximum contaminant level of 20,000 picocuries per liter but declined in 2019 as compared to measurements in 2018. All other contaminants of concern are below the minimum detection level plus analytical error. The water-level monitoring network includes 16 wells. Depth to water measured in 2019 is generally consistent with recent measurements for all wells. Many wells continue to exhibit a long-term downward trend in water level, though changes from 2018 to 2019 are minimal. The sharp 2016 decline in water level in Well ER-5-3-2 remains unexplained, with the lower level persisting through 2019. Rising water-level trends continue to be observed in Well ER-5-3 deep piezometer and former water supply Well WW-5A. Water supply Well WW-5B experienced a rise in water level as a result of an absence of pumping in the first part of the year (due to a mechanical problem), whereas water levels declined in WW-4 and WW-4A in response to greater pumping in 2019. Institutional control monitoring confirmed the URs are recorded in U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Air Force land management systems, and that no activities within Frenchman Flat basin are occurring that could potentially affect the contaminant boundaries. Survey of groundwater resources in basins surrounding Frenchman Flat similarly identify no current or pending development that would indicate the need to increase monitoring activities or would otherwise cause concern for the closure decision. The URs continue to prevent exposure of the public, workers, and the environment to contaminants of concern by preventing use of potentially contaminated groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Clean energy technology pathways from research to commercialization: Policy and practice case studies

Clean energy research and development (R and D) leading to commercial technologies is vital to economic development, technology competitiveness, and reduced environmental impact. Over the past 30 years, such efforts have advanced technology performance and reduced cost by leveraging network effects and economies of scale. After demonstrating promise in applied R and D, successful clean energy and energy efficiency technologies are incorporated into an initial product sold by the private sector. Despite its importance, processes by which first commercialization occurs are difficult to generalize while capturing specific insights from practitioners in markets and technologies. This paper presents a policy-focused qualitative assessment of the first commercialization of four diverse energy technologies: thin film photovoltaics, wind turbine blades, dual-stage refrigeration evaporators, and fuel cells for material handling equipment. Each technology presents distinct value propositions, markets, and regulatory drivers. The case studies indicate three common characteristics of successful first commercialization for new energy technologies: 1) good fit between the technology, R&D infrastructure, and public-private partnership models; 2) high degree of alignment of government regulations and R&D priorities with market forces; and 3) compatibility between time scales required for R&D, product development, and opportunities. These findings may inform energy investment decision-making, maximize benefits from R&D, and advance the transition to a low-emission future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Time-Lapse Integration at FWU: Fluids, Rock Physics, Numerical Model Integration, and Field Data Comparison

We present the current status of time-lapse seismic integration at the Farnsworth (FWU) CO2 WAG (water-alternating-gas) EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) project at Ochiltree County, northwest Texas. As a potential carbon sequestration mechanism, CO2 WAG projects will be subject to some degree of monitoring and verification, either as a regulatory requirement or to qualify for economic incentives. In order to evaluate the viability of time-lapse seismic as a monitoring method the Southwest Partnership (SWP) has conducted time-lapse seismic monitoring at FWU using the 3D Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) method. The efficacy of seismic time-lapse depends on a number of key factors, which vary widely from one application to another. Most important among these are the thermophysical properties of the original fluid in place and the displacing fluid, followed by the petrophysical properties of the rock matrix, which together determine the effective elastic properties of the rock fluid system. We present systematic analysis of fluid thermodynamics and resulting thermophysical properties, petrophysics and rock frame elastic properties, and elastic property modeling through fluid substitution using data collected at FWU. These analyses will be framed in realistic scenarios presented by the FWU CO2 WAG development. The resulting fluid/rock physics models will be applied to output from the calibrated FWU compositional reservoir simulation model to forward model the time-lapse seismic response. Modeled results are compared with field time-lapse seismic measurements and strategies for numerical model feedback/update are discussed. While mechanical effects are neglected in the work presented here, complementary parallel studies are underway in which laboratory measurements are introduced to introduce stress dependence of matrix elastic moduli.

4D↗

NASA NTRS1993

Overview of spaceflight immunology studies

The effects of spaceflight and analogues of spaceflight are discussed here and in nine accompanying articles. In this summary we present spaceflight studies with human subjects, animal subjects, and cell cultures and we review ground-based systems used to model the observed effects of spaceflight on the immune system. Human paradigms include bed rest, academic or psychological stress, physical stress, hypobaric or high altitude stress, and confinement. Animal models include antiorthostatic and orthostatic suspension, hypobarism, and confinement. The ten manuscripts in this collection were selected to provide a summary that should give the reader an overview of the various activities of spaceflight immunology researchers throughout the history of space travel. This manuscript identifies the major contributors to the study of spaceflight immunology, explains what types of studies have been conducted, and how they have changed over the years. Also presented is a discussion of the unusual limitations associated with spaceflight research and the efforts to develop appropriate ground-based surrogate model systems. Specific details, data, and mechanistic speculations will be held to a minimum, because they will be discussed in depth in the other articles in the collection.

NASA Discipline Number 18-10↗

DOE OSTI2023

Constructing Regulatory Networks to Compare Axenic and Interspecies Microbial Gene Transcription

In this preliminary study, we constructed gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from transcriptional expression data of axenic and interspecies microbial cultures with the goal of predicting how cocultivation affected greenhouse gas respiration by these species. The specific strains of Methylotuvimicrobium alkaliphilum 20Z, a methylotroph, and Cyanobacterium stanieri HL-69, a phototroph, were chosen for their viability in industrial bioprocessing. We ranked directed interactions between gene pairs based on the ability of the input gene to predict the expression of a target gene relative to their transcriptomes. While we were able to identify topological differences between conditions, our initial findings require validation through experimental analysis and further modeling. We aimed to develop a systematic thresholding approach to optimize the accuracy of our networks. We filtered out trial networks separately from top gene interactions of the scored rankings. Parameters of unfiltered and filtered networks were used to test and develop thresholding approaches. Knee point detection of edge weight distributions was explored as an approach for separating significant interactions from insignificant interactions in unfiltered networks. While knee detection failed to produce analogous networks for broad cross-condition comparisons, the results informed us about the proportions of significant edges present in unfiltered networks. We also calculated the average mean degree for nodes in a selection of trial networks to find a thresholding value characteristic to all groups. While we did not reach a definitive conclusion, we gained insight into the coregulatory structures of our groups and made critical evaluations of systematic methods for filtering networks. We recommend an iterative process for the inference of GRNs, where the most significant results from preliminary explorations are used to improve the efficiency with which regulatory motifs are chosen for experimental characterization. Experimental results can then inform the framework of adjusted models to improve broad interpretations of GRNs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identification and characterization of distinct cell cycle stages in cardiomyocytes using the FUCCI transgenic system

Understanding the regulatory mechanism by which cardiomyocyte proliferation transitions to endoreplication and cell cycle arrest during the neonatal period is crucial for identifying proproliferative factors and developing regenerative therapies. }We used a transgenic mouse model based on the fluorescent ubiquitination-based cell cycle indicator (FUCCI) system to isolate and characterize cycling cardiomyocytes at different cell cycle stages at a single-cell resolution. Single-cell transcriptome analysis of cycling and noncycling cardiomyocytes was performed at postnatal days 0 (P0) and 7 (P7). }The FUCCI system proved to be efficient for the identification of cycling cardiomyocytes with the highest mitotic activity at birth, followed by a gradual decline in the number of cycling and mitotic cardiomyocytes during the neonatal period. Cardiomyocytes showed premature cell cycle exit at G1/S shortly after birth and delayed G1/S progression during endoreplication at P7. Single-cell RNA-seq confirmed previously described signaling pathways involved in cardiomyocyte proliferation (Erbb2 and Hippo/YAP), and maturation-related transcriptional changes during postnatal development, including the metabolic switch from glycolysis to fatty acid oxidation in cardiomyocytes. Importantly, we generated transcriptional profiles specific to cell division and endoreplication in cardiomyocytes at different developmental stages that may facilitate the identification of genes important for adult cardiomyocyte proliferation and heart regeneration. }In conclusion, the FUCCI mouse provides a valuable system to study cardiomyocyte cell cycle activity at single cell resolution that can help to decipher the switch from cardiomyocyte proliferation to endoreplication, and to revert this process to facilitate endogenous repair.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Detailed Vehicle Simulation Process to Support CAFE and CO 2 Standards (MY 2021–2026 Final Rule Analysis)

In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), requiring standards for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), and charging the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) with the establishment and enforcement of these standards. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated these responsibilities to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). NHTSA has contracted the DOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) to provide analytical support for NHTSA’s regulatory and analytical activities related to fuel economy standards. Unlike long-standing safety and criteria pollutant emissions standards, fuel economy standards apply to manufacturers’ overall fleets rather than to individual vehicle models. In developing the standards, NHTSA made use of the CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System (the “CAFE model”), which was developed by DOT’s Volpe Center for the 2005-2007 CAFE rulemaking and has been continually updated since. The model is the primary tool used by the agency to evaluate potential CAFE stringency levels by applying technologies incrementally to each manufacturer’s fleet until the requirements under consideration are met. The CAFE model relies on numerous technology-related and economic inputs such as market forecasts and technology cost and effectiveness estimates; these inputs are categorized by vehicle classification, technology synergies, phase-in rates, cost learning curve adjustments, and technology “decision trees.” The Volpe Center assists NHTSA in the development of the engineering and economic inputs to the CAFE model by analyzing the application of potential technologies to the current automotive industry vehicle fleet to determine the feasibility of future CAFE standards, the associated costs, and the benefits of the standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

MACCS User Guide (V.5.0)

MACCS is used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and various national and international organizations for probabilistic consequence analysis of nuclear power accidents. This user guide is intended to assist analysts in understanding the MACCS/MACCS-UI User Interface (UI) model and to provide information regarding the code. This user guide version describes MACCS Version 5.0, model history, explains how to set up and execute a problem, and informs the user of the definition of various input parameters and any constraints placed on those parameters. This report is part of a series of reports documenting MACCS. Other reports include the MACCS Theory Manual, MACCS Verification Report, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS, as well as documentation for preprocessor codes including SecPop, MelMACCS, and COMIDA2.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

MACCS User Guide - Version 5.2

MACCS is used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and various national and international organizations for probabilistic consequence analysis of nuclear power accidents. This user guide is intended to assist analysts in understanding the MACCS/MACCS-UI User Interface (UI) model and to provide information regarding the code. This user guide version describes MACCS Version 5.2, model history, explains how to set up and execute a problem, and informs the user of the definition of various input parameters and any constraints placed on those parameters. This report is part of a series of reports documenting MACCS. Other reports include the MACCS Theory Manual, MACCS Verification Report, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS, as well as documentation for preprocessor codes including SecPop, MelMACCS, and COMIDA2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mass balance approaches for estimating the intestinal absorption and metabolism of peptides and analogues: theoretical development and applications

A theoretical analysis for estimating the extent of intestinal peptide and peptide analogue absorption was developed on the basis of a mass balance approach that incorporates convection, permeability, and reaction. The macroscopic mass balance analysis (MMBA) was extended to include chemical and enzymatic degradation. A microscopic mass balance analysis, a numerical approach, was also developed and the results compared to the MMBA. The mass balance equations for the fraction of a drug absorbed and reacted in the tube were derived from the general steady state mass balance in a tube: [formula: see text] where M is mass, z is the length of the tube, R is the tube radius, Pw is the intestinal wall permeability, kr is the reaction rate constant, C is the concentration of drug in the volume element over which the mass balance is taken, VL is the volume of the tube, and vz is the axial velocity of drug. The theory was first applied to the oral absorption of two tripeptide analogues, cefaclor (CCL) and cefatrizine (CZN), which degrade and dimerize in the intestine. Simulations using the mass balance equations, the experimental absorption parameters, and the literature stability rate constants yielded a mean estimated extent of CCL (250-mg dose) and CZN (1000-mg dose) absorption of 89 and 51%, respectively, which was similar to the mean extent of absorption reported in humans (90 and 50%). It was proposed previously that 15% of the CCL dose spontaneously degraded systematically; however, our simulations suggest that significant CCL degradation occurs (8 to 17%) presystemically in the intestinal lumen.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2023

Applying AI/ML Techniques to U.S. Nuclear Operating Experience Program

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has provided technical assistance to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in reliability and risk analysis including the operating experience (OpE) program since the 1980s. The U.S. nuclear OpE program provides input parameters to the NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk models and the industry probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models. While earlier PRA focuses were on at-power, internal event analysis, the risks from external hazards and during low power shutdown (LPSD) operation could be significant and the needs to develop LPSD PRA and external hazards PRA are on the rise. One issue in developing LPSD PRA is the reasonable estimation of shutdown initiative event (SDIE) frequencies. INL has developed and is maintaining an SDIE database for the NRC. However, this database is based on the reviewing of Licensee Event Reports (LERs), which is believed to be only a subset of “actual” shutdown initiating events occurred in the industry. This paper investigates a new approach to identify and characterize shutdown initiating events from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) industry database using machine learning techniques. The main process in this approach is to find out the relationship between key words in event descriptions and the SDIE categories as in the NRC SDIE database. The relationship can then be applied to the INPO database and search for SDIEs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗