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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Crewed Mars Mission Analysis, Part II: The Trajectory Strikes Back

Crewed missions to Mars present a challenging problem involving strong interactions between a variety of spacecraft systems. Design and architecture decisions made by one system can have powerful implications for another. Siloed subsystem development and optimization efforts are unlikely to generate optimal results for the integrated system and may lead to counterproductive investments at the mission and system level. Mismatched assumptions between different subsystems can also negatively impact the final result. Integrated systems analysis, trade studies, and sensitivity analysis are a critical element of successful Mars mission design. Previous work examined the linkages between Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) loop closure, food water content, spares Probability of Sufficiency (POS), and other factors by performing an integrated mass and cost assessment of a variety of Mars habitat and transportation system designs. This paper expands upon that work by evaluating the impact of mission duration, trajectory, and propulsion technology alongside key habitat variables. Transportation system and trajectory design decisions have enormous impacts on overall system mass, and the impacts of those decisions are themselves sensitive to the mass of the habitat that is being transported. This paper examines a variety of mission cases and evaluates total departure mass for each case. An estimate of relative costs for specific cases is also provided. The results are discussed, with an emphasis on the sensitivity of mass, cost, and other figures of merit to key parameters. Interactions and dependencies between various decisions, particularly those that relate to technology investments, are also highlighted. Overall, the various elements, systems, and subsystems required to support human spaceflight should not be optimized and evaluated in isolation, but instead should be analyzed as part of an integrated system. This paper demonstrates how integrated analysis can improve system understanding and lead to more optimal and effective crewed exploration systems.

Human Spaceflight↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Crewed Mars Mission Analysis, Part II: The Trajectory Strikes Back

Crewed missions to Mars present a challenging problem involving strong interactions between a variety of spacecraft systems. Design and architecture decisions made by one system can have powerful implications for another. Siloed subsystem development and optimization efforts are unlikely to generate optimal results for the integrated system and may lead to counterproductive investments at the mission and system level. Mismatched assumptions between different subsystems can also negatively impact the final result. Integrated systems analysis, trade studies, and sensitivity analysis are a critical element of successful Mars mission design. Previous work examined the linkages between Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) loop closure, food water content, spares Probability of Sufficiency (POS), and other factors by performing an integrated mass and cost assessment of a variety of Mars habitat and transportation system designs. This paper expands upon that work by evaluating the impact of mission duration, trajectory, and propulsion technology alongside key habitat variables. Transportation system and trajectory design decisions have enormous impacts on overall system mass, and the impacts of those decisions are themselves sensitive to the mass of the habitat that is being transported. This paper examines a variety of mission cases and evaluates total departure mass for each case. An estimate of relative costs for specific cases is also provided. The results are discussed, with an emphasis on the sensitivity of mass, cost, and other figures of merit to key parameters. Interactions and dependencies between various decisions, particularly those that relate to technology investments, are also highlighted. Overall, the various elements, systems, and subsystems required to support human spaceflight should not be optimized and evaluated in isolation, but instead should be analyzed as part of an integrated system. This paper demonstrates how integrated analysis can improve system understanding and lead to more optimal and effective crewed exploration systems.

Human Spaceflight↗
NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Two-Parameter Impedance Prediction Model

This paper presents comparisons of predicted impedance uncertainty limits derived from Monte-Carlo-type simulations with a Two-Parameter (TP) impedance prediction model and measured impedance uncertainty limits based on multiple tests acquired in NASA Langley test rigs. These predicted and measured impedance uncertainty limits are used to evaluate the effects of simultaneous randomization of each input parameter for the impedance prediction and measurement processes. A sensitivity analysis is then used to further evaluate the TP prediction model by varying its input parameters on an individual basis. The variation imposed on the input parameters is based on measurements conducted with multiple tests in the NASA Langley normal incidence and grazing incidence impedance tubes; thus, the input parameters are assigned uncertainties commensurate with those of the measured data. These same measured data are used with the NASA Langley impedance measurement (eduction) processes to determine the corresponding measured impedance uncertainty limits, such that the predicted and measured impedance uncertainty limits (95% confidence intervals) can be compared. The measured reactance 95% confidence intervals encompass the corresponding predicted reactance confidence intervals over the frequency range of interest. The same is true for the confidence intervals of the measured and predicted resistance at near-resonance frequencies, but the predicted resistance confidence intervals are lower than the measured resistance confidence intervals (no overlap) at frequencies away from resonance. A sensitivity analysis indicates the discharge coefficient uncertainty is the major contributor to uncertainty in the predicted impedances for the perforate-over-honeycomb liner used in this study. This insight regarding the relative importance of each input parameter will be used to guide the design of experiments with test rigs currently being brought on-line at NASA Langley.

Jones, M. G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The cluster decomposition of the configurational energy of multicomponent alloys

Abstract The cluster expansion method (CEM) is a widely used lattice-based technique in the study of multicomponent alloys. Despite its prevalent use, a clear understanding of expansion terms is lacking. We present a modern mathematical formalism of the CEM and introduce thecluster decomposition—a unique and basis-independent decomposition for functions of the atomic configuration in a crystal. We identify the cluster decomposition as an invariant ANOVA decomposition; and demonstrate how functional analysis of variance and sensitivity analysis can be used to interpret interactions among species. Furthermore, we show how the mathematical structure of the cluster decomposition enables numerical evaluation that scales with the number of clusters and is independent of the number of species. Overall, our work enables rigorous interpretations of interactions among species, provides opportunities to explore parameter estimation beyond linear regression, introduces a numerical efficient implementation, and enables analysis of cluster expansions based on established mathematical and statistical principles.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗
NASA NTRS1989

Global, seasonal cloud variations from satellite radiance measurements. I - Sensitivity of analysis

Global, daily, visible and IR radiance measurements from the NOAA-5 Scanning Radiometer (SR) are analyzed for the months of January, April, July and October, 1977 to infer cloud and surface radiative properties. In this paper, the data and analysis method are described. A unique feature of the method is that it utilizes radiative transfer models that simulate the SR measurements using explicit parameters representing the properties of the surface, atmosphere, and clouds. The accuracy of all the results depends primarily on the proper separation of the total radiance distribution into those parts representing clear and cloudy scenes.

Rossow, William B.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Automatic differentiation as a tool in engineering design

Automatic Differentiation (AD) is a tool that systematically implements the chain rule of differentiation to obtain the derivatives of functions calculated by computer programs. AD is assessed as a tool for engineering design. The forward and reverse modes of AD, their computing requirements, as well as approaches to implementing AD are discussed. The application of two different tools to two medium-size structural analysis problems to generate sensitivity information typically necessary in an optimization or design situation is also discussed. The observation is made that AD is to be preferred to finite differencing in most cases, as long as sufficient computer storage is available; in some instances, AD may be the alternative to consider in lieu of analytical sensitivity analysis.

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois↗
NASA NTRS1996

Solar Dynamic Power System Stability Analysis and Control

The objective of this research is to conduct dynamic analysis, control design, and control performance test of solar power system. Solar power system consists of generation system and distribution network system. A bench mark system is used in this research, which includes a generator with excitation system and governor, an ac/dc converter, six DDCU's and forty-eight loads. A detailed model is used for modeling generator. Excitation system is represented by a third order model. DDCU is represented by a seventh order system. The load is modeled by the combination of constant power and constant impedance. Eigen-analysis and eigen-sensitivity analysis are used for system dynamic analysis. The effects of excitation system, governor, ac/dc converter control, and the type of load on system stability are discussed. In order to improve system transient stability, nonlinear ac/dc converter control is introduced. The direct linearization method is used for control design. The dynamic analysis results show that these controls affect system stability in different ways. The parameter coordination of controllers are recommended based on the dynamic analysis. It is concluded from the present studies that system stability is improved by the coordination of control parameters and the nonlinear ac/dc converter control stabilize system oscillation caused by the load change and system fault efficiently.

Momoh, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Applications of Response Surface-Based Methods to Noise Analysis in the Conceptual Design of Revolutionary Aircraft

Due to the growing problem of noise in today's air transportation system, there have arisen needs to incorporate noise considerations in the conceptual design of revolutionary aircraft. Through the use of response surfaces, complex noise models may be converted into polynomial equations for rapid and simplified evaluation. This conversion allows many of the commonly used response surface-based trade space exploration methods to be applied to noise analysis. This methodology is demonstrated using a noise model of a notional 300 passenger Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) transport. Response surfaces are created relating source noise levels of the BWB vehicle to its corresponding FAR-36 certification noise levels and the resulting trade space is explored. Methods demonstrated include: single point analysis, parametric study, an optimization technique for inverse analysis, sensitivity studies, and probabilistic analysis. Extended applications of response surface-based methods in noise analysis are also discussed.

Hill, Geoffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Sensitive Quantitative Analysis of Abiotically Synthesized Short Homopeptides using Ultraperformance Liquid Chromatography and Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry

In the origins of life field understanding the abiotic polymerization of simple organic monomers (e.g., amino acids) into larger biomolecules (e.g., oligopeptides), remains a seminal challenge. Recently, preliminary observations showed a limited set of peptides formed in the presence of the plausible prebiotic phosphorylating agent, diamidophosphate (DAP), highlighting the need for an analytical tool to critically evaluate the ability of DAP to induce oligomerization of simple organics under aqueous conditions. However, performing accurate and precise, targeted analyses of short oligopeptides remains a distinct challenge in the analytical chemistry field. Here, we developed a new technique to detect and quantitate amino acids and their homopeptides in a single run using ultraperformance liquid chromatography-fluorescence detection/time of flight mass spectrometry. Over an 8-minute retention time window, 18 target analytes were identified and quantitated, 16 of which were chromatographically separated at, or near baseline resolution. Compound identity was confirmed by accurate mass analysis using a 10 ppm mass tolerance window. This method featured limits of detection < 5 nM (< 1 fmol on column) and limits of quantitation (LOQs) <15 nM (< 3 fmol on column). The LODs and LOQs were upwards of ∼28x and ∼788x lower, respectively, than previous methods for the same analytes, highlighting the quantifiable advantages of this new method. Both detectors provided good quantitative linearity (R(exp 2) > 0.985) for all analytes spanning concentration ranges ∼3 - 4 orders of magnitude. We performed a series of laboratory experiments to investigate DAP-mediated oligomerization of amino acids and peptides and analyzed experimental products with the new method. DAP readily polymerized amino acids and peptides under a range of simulated environmental conditions. This research underscores the potential of DAP to have generated oligopeptides on the primordial Earth, enhancing prebiotic chemical diversity and complexity at or near the origin of life.

Prebiotic Chemistry and Analytical Chemistry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dragonfly Entry and Descent Flight Mechanics Modeling and Analysis for Mission PDR

Dragonfly is a New Frontiers Program mission led by Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) which will deliver a rotorcraft lander to Saturn’s moon, Titan [1]. Relative to previous studies presented, Dragonfly recently passed its mission Preliminary Design Review (PDR) [2]. This study presents the updated design and analysis performed for the Dragonfly mission PDR. The entry vehicle analysis includes the phases of entry and descent prior to cruise stage separation until lander separation. These results discuss the robustness of the overall entry sequence as assessed through a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis as well as sensitivity analysis.

Modeling↗
NASA NTRS1992

Development of a structural optimization capability for the aeroelastic tailoring of composite rotor blades with straight and swept tips

This paper describes the development of a new structural optimization capability aimed at the aeroelastic tailoring of composite rotor blades with straight and swept tips. The primary objective is to reduce vibration levels in forward flight without diminishing the aeroelastic stability margins of the blade. In the course of this research activity a number of complicated tasks have been addressed: (1) development of a new, aeroelastic stability and response analysis; (2) formulation of a new comprehensive sensitive analysis, which facilitates the generation of the appropriate approximations for the objective and the constraints; (3) physical understanding of the new model and, in particular, determination of its potential for aeroelastic tailoring, and (4) combination of the newly developed analysis capability, the sensitivity derivatives and the optimizer into a comprehensive optimization capability. The first three tasks have been completed and the fourth task is in progress.

Friedmann, P. P.↗