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DOE OSTI2026

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Black-box statistical prediction of lossy compression ratios for scientific data

Lossy compressors are increasingly adopted in scientific research, tackling volumes of data from experiments or parallel numerical simulations and facilitating data storage and movement. In contrast with the notion of entropy in lossless compression, no theoretical or data-based quantification of lossy compressibility exists for scientific data. Users rely on trial and error to assess lossy compression performance. As a strong data-driven effort toward quantifying lossy compressibility of scientific datasets, we provide a statistical framework to predict compression ratios of lossy compressors. Our method is a two-step framework where (i) compressor-agnostic predictors are computed and (ii) statistical prediction models relying on these predictors are trained on observed compression ratios. Proposed predictors exploit spatial correlations and notions of entropy and lossyness via the quantized entropy. We study 8+ compressors on 6 scientific datasets and achieve a median percentage prediction error less than 12%, which is substantially smaller than that of other methods while achieving at least a 8.8× speedup for searching for a specific compression ratio and 7.8× speedup for determining the best compressor out of a collection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1997

On the Computation of Sound by Large-Eddy Simulations

The effect of the small scales on the source term in Lighthill's acoustic analogy is investigated, with the objective of determining the accuracy of large-eddy simulations when applied to studies of flow-generated sound. The distribution of the turbulent quadrupole is predicted accurately, if models that take into account the trace of the SGS stresses are used. Its spatial distribution is also correct, indicating that the low-wave-number (or frequency) part of the sound spectrum can be predicted well by LES. Filtering, however, removes the small-scale fluctuations that contribute significantly to the higher derivatives in space and time of Lighthill's stress tensor T(sub ij). The rms fluctuations of the filtered derivatives are substantially lower than those of the unfiltered quantities. The small scales, however, are not strongly correlated, and are not expected to contribute significantly to the far-field sound; separate modeling of the subgrid-scale density fluctuations might, however, be required in some configurations.

Piomelli, Ugo↗

DOE OSTI2024

STFM: Accurate Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Weather Forecasting

Meteorological prediction is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, navigation, daily life, disaster prevention, and scientific research. However, traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are constrained by their high computational resource requirements, while the accuracy of deep learning models remains suboptimal. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel deep learning-based model, the Spatiotemporal Fusion Model (STFM), designed to enhance the accuracy of meteorological predictions. Our model leverages Fifth-Generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data and introduces two key components: a spatiotemporal encoder module and a spatiotemporal fusion module. The spatiotemporal encoder integrates the strengths of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), effectively capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal fusion module employs a dual attention mechanism, decomposing spatial attention into global static attention and channel dynamic attention. This approach ensures comprehensive extraction of spatial features from meteorological data. The combination of these modules significantly improves prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that STFM excels in extracting spatiotemporal features from reanalysis data, yielding predictions that closely align with observed values. In comparative studies, STFM outperformed other models, achieving a 7% improvement in ground and high-altitude temperature predictions, a 5% enhancement in the prediction of the u/v components of 10 m wind speed, and an increase in the accuracy of potential height and relative humidity predictions by 3% and 1%, respectively. This enhanced performance highlights STFM’s potential to advance the accuracy and reliability of meteorological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Searching for synchrotron emission from the geminga TeV halo using the planck satellite

Pulsars convert a significant fraction of their total spin-down power into very high-energy electrons, leading to the formation of TeV halos. While these halos are well characterized at TeV energies, it remains unclear whether pulsars also accelerate electrons efficiently at lower energies and how these particles propagate through their surrounding environments. We aim to test whether synchrotron emission from $\sim 50$–$300 \, \textrm{GeV}$ electrons around the Geminga pulsar can be detected in the frequency range observed by the Planck satellite. This would help constrain low-energy particle acceleration and diffusion in the vicinity of pulsars. We model the expected synchrotron emission from Geminga’s TeV halo based on various diffusion and injection spectrum scenarios and compare these predictions to publicly available multi-frequency Planck data. We find no conclusive evidence of spatially extended synchrotron emission associated with Geminga in any of Planck’s frequency bands. Our calculations show that even under favorable diffusion and injection conditions, the predicted synchrotron flux lies well below Planck’s measured background levels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1996

Parafoveal Target Detectability Reversal Predicted by Local Luminance and Contrast Gain Control

This project is part of a program to develop image discrimination models for the prediction of the detectability of objects in a range of backgrounds. We wanted to see if the models could predict parafoveal object detection as well as they predict detection in foveal vision. We also wanted to make our simplified models more general by local computation of luminance and contrast gain control. A signal image (0.78 x 0.17 deg) was made by subtracting a simulated airport runway scene background image (2.7 deg square) from the same scene containing an obstructing aircraft. Signal visibility contrast thresholds were measured in a fully crossed factorial design with three factors: eccentricity (0 deg or 4 deg), background (uniform or runway scene background), and fixed-pattern white noise contrast (0%, 5%, or 10%). Three experienced observers responded to three repetitions of 60 2IFC trials in each condition and thresholds were estimated by maximum likelihood probit analysis. In the fovea the average detection contrast threshold was 4 dB lower for the runway background than for the uniform background, but in the parafovea, the average threshold was 6 dB higher for the runway background than for the uniform background. This interaction was similar across the different noise levels and for all three observers. A likely reason for the runway background giving a lower threshold in the fovea is the low luminance near the signal in that scene. In our model, the local luminance computation is controlled by a spatial spread parameter. When this parameter and a corresponding parameter for the spatial spread of contrast gain were increased for the parafoveal predictions, the model predicts the interaction of background with eccentricity.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seabird distribution is better predicted by abundance of prey than oceanography. A case study in the Gulf of Cadiz (SW, Iberian Peninsula)

Abstract Quantifying factors that influence marine predator distributions is essential to understanding the current and future change in marine biodiversity. Here, we test whether marine predator distribution relates to prey, or is better predicted by other specific habitat features. We examine the correlation between spatial distribution of three seabird species and their prey, as well as environmental proxies (oceanographic characteristics) in the Gulf of Cadiz, NE Atlantic. We modeled the at-sea distribution of Cory's shearwater, Balearic shearwater and Northern gannet, based on: (i) pelagic fish abundance according to acoustic surveys, and (ii) a forecast-model of remotely sensed environmental variables (productivity, sea surface temperature, and salinity). In general, seabird distributions were better predicted by abundance of fish than by environmental variables at the habitat scale. We obtained consistent correlations between seabird presence and the abundance of medium-sized (10–20 cm) sardines, anchovies and Mediterranean horse mackerel, providing information on their preferred prey. Additionally, oceanographic productivity variables moderately contributed to seabird distribution models, with better predictive value for the critically endangered Balearic shearwater and Northern gannet in the summer, whilst the model for Cory's shearwater's produced poorer predictions. Predator–prey combined studies may represent essential tools for an efficient ecosystem-based management of marine environments.

de la Cruz, Andrés (ORCID:0000000203632498)↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Spatially Coherent Global Soil Moisture Product with Improved Temporal Resolution

Global soil moisture products that are completely independent of any type of ancillary data and solely rely on satellite observations are presented. Additionally, we further develop an existing downscaling technique that enhances the spatial resolution of such products to approximately 11 km. These products are based on internal modules of the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), an algorithm that uses the radiative transfer equation to link soil moisture, vegetation optical depth and land surface temperature to observed brightness temperatures. The soil moisture product that is independent of any type of ancillary data uses the internally calculated dielectric constant as a soil moisture proxy. This data product is not influenced by errors associated with coarse-scale global soil property maps or by any other type of forcing (e.g. re-analysis) data and is therefore solely based on satellite microwave observations. The second step builds upon recent developments to increase the spatial resolution of the LPRM retrievals using a smoothing filter downscaling method. With this method we can attain a spatial resolution that can be more useful at the scale of local and regional hydrological studies as well. The steps presented in this paper were applied to observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). The newly derived data sets were validated using ground-based observations from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN). The internally calculated dielectric constant product results in significantly more days with valid retrievals than the original soil moisture data products, in particular over arid regions. The dielectric constant product resulted in similar correlations with in situ data as the original soil moisture data product. Together, these findings demonstrate the usefulness of this new dielectric constant product for the hydrological modeling community and climate studies. A case study on the Australian Fitzroy catchment demonstrated that the downscaled data product has a more detailed spatial description of soil moisture, especially during wet and dry conditions with more pronounced dry and wet regions within the catchment. The increased resolution data products could therefore improve runoff predictions and this study demonstrated the potential added value of a transitioning from a spatial resolution of 56 km toward a higher resolution of 11 km. The hydrological implications of these newly developed data records are not only linked to AMSR-E satellite data, but also to the next generation Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission where a 9 km spatial resolution is the target resolution for satellite soil moisture products. The new data products will not replace the current LPRM products, but will be added to the existing array of data products and will become publicly available through our data portals.

spatial↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Systems and Synthetic Biology to Understand and Engineer Microbiomes

Microbiomes are complex and ubiquitous networks of microorganisms whose seemingly limitless chemical transformations could be harnessed to benefit agriculture, medicine, and biotechnology. Here, the spatial and temporal changes in microbiome composition and function are influenced by a multitude of molecular and ecological factors. This complexity yields both versatility and challenges in designing synthetic microbiomes and perturbing natural microbiomes in controlled, predictable ways. In this review, we describe factors that give rise to emergent spatial and temporal microbiome properties and the meta-omics and computational modeling tools that can be used to understand microbiomes at the cellular and system levels. We also describe strategies for designing and engineering microbiomes to enhance or build novel functions. Throughout the review,we discuss key knowledge and technology gaps for elucidating the networks and deciphering key control points for microbiome engineering, and highlight examples where multiple omics and modeling approaches can be integrated to address these gaps.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the potential for bird‐habitat models to support biodiversity‐friendly urban planning

Abstract Urban expansion poses a major threat to wildlife populations. Biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes could deliver benefits for both wildlife and people, by incorporating conservation and ecosystem services objectives. Well‐designed urban developments could also soften the ecological impacts of urbanization. However, delivering urban landscapes that integrate biodiversity requirements effectively remains challenging. Ecological models, designed to predict wildlife population responses to alternative urban designs, could prove effective in supporting the creation of biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes. Here, we combine national‐scale bird abundance data with high resolution, spatially explicit habitat data to characterize relationships between bird densities and urban landscape form in Britain. From these analyses and cross validation, we evaluate the potential for well‐parameterized, species‐specific models to be used to predict bird densities in novel or modified urban areas. Our analyses indicate that responses of bird abundance to urban habitat are species‐specific and complex, with few variables consistently affecting a large proportion of species. However, contiguous areas of greenspace within urban sites are preferential for accommodating breeding birds, compared to a more fragmented arrangement of multiple, small greenspace patches. In combination, the bird‐habitat relationships identified could successfully predict observed variation in abundance for most bird species considered. Further evaluation of habitat descriptor variables, spatial scales of species' habitat use and analytical modelling approaches may be needed to improve the predictive ability of bird‐habitat models for certain species, particularly waterbirds and those observed less frequently in urban areas. Synthesis and applications . We modelled breeding bird abundance in built‐up areas with respect to the characteristics and contexts of urban environments. While most variables were important for multiple species, responses overall were species‐specific, so simple assemblage metrics, like diversity, will not describe the variation in bird communities well. However, the results illustrate the potential of an evidence‐based, spatially explicit evaluation of urban development impacts on biodiversity, by predicting the consequences for bird numbers. Subject to verification of predictive ability, practitioners can apply the models to compare, for example, land‐sparing and sharing within developments, or to quantify the biodiversity requirements for effective offsetting. This would be facilitated by incorporation into an online tool allowing user‐determined input scenarios.

Plummer, Kate E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Super-Resolution from Space: Using MERRA-2 and MAIAC Satellite Imagery to Produce Daily Continuous 1 km PM2.5 Estimates

PM2.5 measurements from ground stations are the gold standard when available, but the expense and coverage of such stations limits widespread monitoring. Having accurate PM2.5 estimates outside the range of these stations is important for monitoring this crucial aspect of air quality. The goal of this project is to produce daily 1 km continuous PM2.5 estimates for the contiguous US relying primarily on satellite-derived data sources. This is important because models based on such data can be more easily expanded outside the study area and produce global estimates as well. The temporal availability of such data products is often weekly/daily, unlike land-use products with are often available at a yearly or worse temporal resolution. To achieve our goal, we use a couple of different deep neural network architectures to produce PM2.5 measurements at 10 km and 1 km resolution. We use two model architectures, a UNET-like model and a GAN-based model. We train both models using MERRA-2 data and MAIAC AOD data scaled to 10 km and 1 km for the two different prediction resolutions. MERRA-2 imagery is data rich with a wide range of geospatial variables at 50 km and has long historical availability (beginning in 1980). We’re also using higher spatial resolution MAIAC data at 1 km to provide finer resolution spatial context. This essentially leverages the spatial resolution of MAIAC data and the “wider” information of MERRA-2 data to predict PM2.5. For the target data we’re using a modeled 1 km PM2.5 dataset produced by Harvard to pre-train our models and then fine-tune our models using ground station measurements. Not only are our results comparable with the performance of the Harvard dataset, but can be generalized to any area or time where MERRA-2 and MAIAC data is available.

satellite imagery↗

NASA NTRS1992

Multiple dataset water-quality analyses in the vicinity of an ocean wastewater plume

The White's Point ocean outfall is the method of disposal for approximately 374 million gallons of treated wastewater per day from Los Angeles County. The photosynthetic characteristics and particle distributions have well-defined properties that can be exploited to yield information on transport of the plume, mixing dynamics, and resuspension of bottom sediments during periods of bottom current velocity in excess of ca. 0.1 m/s. This plume of particles serves as a conservative tracer, which was studied using a number of sampling platforms and strategies, including underway sawtooth, or 'tow-yo' sampling, moored arrays of instruments, stationary profiling, and now for the first time with remotely-sensed multispectral color imagery. Research in this area previously focused on examination of the plume as it relates to the local current field and transport of particles, and on the resuspension of bottom sediments during periods of increased currents. In addition, Wu et al elucidated techniques for separating the particle signal into photosynthetic and nonphotosynthetic components, based on the beam attenuation to chlorophyll fluorescence ratio. High-frequency time series measurements of the current field and bio-optical characteristics at a site close to the waste diffusers were also collected. These are being analyzed for the spectral characteristics of the longer-timescale variability, in order to predict particle transport through simple meteorological measurements. With the advent of high spectral and spatial resolution imaging spectrometers such as AVIRIS, it is now possible to construct causal relationships between particle distributions and signature of the upwelled radiance from the surface. The availability of a constant and well-characterized source of material lends itself well to models which predict upwelled radiance from the surface. The availability of a constant and well-characterized source of material lends itself well to models which predict upwelled light as a function of particle distributions, photosynthetic pigments, colored dissolved organic material, and detrital and degradation products of photosynthesis. In addition, the spatial coverage provided by the tow-yo sampling device, combined with the profile measurements of the light field, should facilitate the best inverse modeling attempts possible thus far.

Hamilton, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2022

Key environmental and production factors for understanding variation in switchgrass chemical attributes

Abstract Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) is a promising feedstock for bioenergy and bioproducts; however, its inherent variability in chemical attributes creates challenges for uniform conversion efficiencies and product quality. It is necessary to understand the range of variation and factors (i.e., field management, environmental) influencing chemical attributes for process improvement and risk assessment. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the impact of nitrogen fertilizer application rate, year, and location on switchgrass chemical attributes, (2) examine the relationships among chemical attributes, weather and soil data, and (3) develop models to predict chemical attributes using environmental factors. Switchgrass samples from a field study spanning four locations including upland cultivars, one location including a lowland cultivar, and between three and six harvest years were assessed for glucan, xylan, lignin, volatiles, carbon, nitrogen, and ash concentrations. Using variance estimation, location/cultivar, nitrogen application rate, and year explained 65%–96% of the variation for switchgrass chemical attributes. Location/cultivar × year interaction was a significant factor for all chemical attributes indicating environmental‐based influences. Nitrogen rate was less influential. Production variables and environmental conditions occurring during the switchgrass field trials were used to successfully predict chemical attributes using linear regression models. Upland switchgrass results highlight the complexity in plant responses to growing conditions because all production and environmental variables had strong relationships with one or more chemical attributes. Lowland switchgrass was limited to observations of year‐to‐year environmental variability and nitrogen application rate. All explanatory variable categories were important for lowland switchgrass models but stand age and precipitation relationships were particularly strong. The relationships found in this study can be used to understand spatial and temporal variation in switchgrass chemical attributes. The ability to predict chemical attributes critical for conversion processes in a geospatial/temporal manner would provide state‐of‐the‐art knowledge for risk assessment in the bioenergy and bioproducts industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Prediction of Broadband Noise from a Representative Unmanned Aerial System Rotor

This work details the application of a lattice-Boltzmann method–very-large-eddy simulation (LBM-VLES) employed by the software suite, PowerFLOW. This LBM-VLES simulation predicted the aeroacoustic noise emanating from a representative, small unmanned aircraft system rotor, namely, the DJI-9450 in a hover condition. Predicted total aerodynamic loading as well as 2D aerodynamic loading along discrete spanwise sections of a rotor blade were compared to lower fidelity predictions and experimental results acquired in the Structural Acoustic Loads and Transmission anechoic chamber facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The total acoustic spectra were decomposed into tonal and broadband components, which showed that broadband noise was a dominant contributor above 1 kHz for this rotor. These data were then compared to experimentally acquired data, showing good agreement up to approximately 11 kHz. Above 11 kHz, however, a grid sensitivity study showed dependency of the highest resolvable frequency on the spatial resolution of the computational domain, explaining the roll off in predicted data. Individual broadband noise sources were further investigated by calculating one-third octave sound pressure levels of the unsteady pressure fluctuations acting on the rotor, providing evidence that blade self-noise was the prominent noise source. Using these results, blade wake interaction noise was seen to be negligible for this particular rotor, which was further validated by calculating blade vortex miss distances and comparing to theory.

Christopher S. Thurman↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal forecasting of the edge localized modes in tokamak plasmas using neural networks

Artificial intelligence techniques have been increasingly adopted by the plasma and fusion science to address problems like plasma reconstruction, surrogate modeling, and tokamak/stellarator optimization. A key focus in sustained fusion research is the prediction and mitigation of edge-localized-modes (ELMs), instabilities that occur in short, periodic bursts and can cause erosion to the tokamak vessel wall. Recent research has demonstrated the power of neural networks in approximating continuous functions. In this work, we build spatiotemporal forecasting models that can predict the onset of ELMs and their evolution at early stages. We leverage recent advances in generative modeling, sequence-to-sequence modeling, and Fourier neural operators to propose architectures and training strategies that can learn to forecast short to long term dynamics of the noisy signals due to ELMs. We benchmark the developed model against a state-of-the-art foundation model using the beam emission spectroscopy (BES) data that captures the plasma fluctuations due to ELMs over a 8 x 8 spatial grid. Our models demonstrate high accuracy, outperforming the baselines, in predicting the evolution of BES signals during ELM events. Furthermore, the developed models exhibit high accuracy in predicting the rapid rise and relaxation of the signals due to ELMs within 30–80 µs.

edge localized modes↗

DOE OSTI2022

Biotic predictors improve species distribution models for invasive plants in Western U.S. Forests at high but not low spatial resolutions

Invasions by non-native plants threaten forest health and sustainability. The ability to predict areas at greatest risk to invasion is essential for informing both monitoring and management of invasive species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to identify environmental correlates of a species’ occurrence and predict geographic areas that may be suitable for its presence and are commonly constructed using solely abiotic predictors. However, mounting evidence implies that not including biotic predictors in SDMs may yield less accurate models at some resolutions typical of landscape-scale models, although this possibility has rarely been evaluated in invasive plants. In this study, we determined whether including descriptors of the biotic environment improved the accuracy of SDMs built at five decreasing spatial resolutions for infestations of five common invasive plants in forests of California, Oregon, and Washington, USA and described environmental correlates of each species’ presence. Predictors of occurrence often echoed those identified in previous studies of the focal species, indicating that our models accurately identified important environmental drivers of occurrence. Including biotic predictors in the SDMs consistently improved model accuracy only at the highest resolution we examined, which may be due to the spatial scale at which biotic interactions primarily act to constrain species’ distributions, the particular biotic predictors we used in our models, or correlations between attributes of the abiotic and biotic environment. This finding suggests that, while the practice of building SDMs using abiotic predictors alone may generally yield models whose accuracy does not differ substantially from those that also include biotic predictors, the effects of biotic interactions on the distribution of invasive plants in forests may be detectable at larger scales than previously thought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Experimental and Numerical Investigation of Air Radiation in Superorbital Expanding Flow

To investigate air radiation in expanding flows and provide experimental data for validating associated computational models, experiments were conducted in the X2 expansion tunnel facility at the Centre for Hypersonics of the University of Queensland. A 54 turning angle wedge model was employed to generate steady expanding flows with in flow total enthalpies of 50.7, 63.4 and 75.4 MJkg. VUV spectra from 118 to 180 nm were acquired across the wedge at three equispaced distances away from the top of the model, as well as through its top surface. High speed filtered images were also obtained by coupling a Shimadzu 1 MHz high speed camera to a bandpass filter to obtain calibrated images of the 777 nm oxygen triplet. Both the across-wedge VUV spectra and filtered images of the 777 nm atomic oxygen were compared with NEQAIR simulations, which were performed using flow field data from two-dimensional CFD simulations with two-temperature 11-species air chemistry utilizing the in-house Navier-Stokes flow solver Eilmer3. Data extracted from consecutive frames of the filtered high speed images confirmed up to 8 s of available test time for the flow conditions tested. For the strongly radiating 149 and 174 nm atomic nitrogen lines, large disagreement between experimental data and NEQAIR predictions can be observed from the start of the expansion fan where the electron-ion recombination process commences. The spatial extent, or spans of the radiance profiles of the 149 and 174 nm N lines are significantly under predicted by NEQAIR, and are very close to those of N, N+ and electron number density profiles, which follow that of flow density. The electron-ion recombination process is proposed as the main reason for these discrepancies. The comparisons between NEQAIR simulations and filtered images of the 777 nm oxygen triplet show good agreement in the post-shock compression region and the start of the expansion fan for the 63.4 MJkg condition, but with up to a factor of three over prediction by NEQAIR further downstream, which is attributed to electron-impact excitation. Similar trends are found with the 75.4 MJkg condition, with reduced level of agreement in the compression region, which can be due to uncertainties in inflow condition.

Earth entry↗

NASA NTRS2024

Improved Chemistry and Attenuation Models for Communication Blackout Simulation During Mars 2020 Entry

As a blunt body enters a planetary atmosphere, a plasma forms in the hypersonic shock layer and attenuates radio communication causing signal blackout for some duration of the entry sequence. In our previous work,1 computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was applied to model the entry flow around the Mars 2020 spacecraft, including ionization and electron density throughout the flow field, and predict ultra-high frequency (UHF) radio wave attenuation due to electrons. In total, 17 chemical species and their spatial profiles are modelled around the Mars 2020 spacecraft at 11 different points in time during entry. Although the simulation predicted the onset of attenuation well, the timing of the end of the predicted blackout window significantly preceded the end time observed during the 2021 landing. The present work seeks to improve the attenuation model by accounting for the fact that electrons undergo collisions with heavier species in the flow, which is an effect that was neglected in previous analyses. It is determined that including electron collisions increases the overall magnitude of attenuation predicted especially towards the end of the measured attenuation period, improving qualitative agreement between predicted and measured attenuation to both spacecraft receiving the signal from Mars 2020. To explore the remaining uncertainty in signal attenuation predictions further, a sensitivity study is performed to investigate the impact of associative ionization and electron-impact ionization rate coefficients on the electron density predicted by CFD and on the resulting attenuation predictions. These coefficients are believed to contain up to order-of-magnitude uncertainty, and therefore may significantly affect the number density of electrons throughout the flow field. Variations in associative ionization coefficients demonstrate significant impact on the magnitude of attenuation due to variation in the electron density coming from associative ionization. However, the start and end times of the predicted signal attenuation period are only slightly impacted by said variation.

Eve Papajak↗