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NASA NTRS2014

Using Historical Data to Automatically Identify Air-Traffic Control Behavior

This project seeks to develop statistical-based machine learning models to characterize the types of errors present when using current systems to predict future aircraft states. These models will be data-driven - based on large quantities of historical data. Once these models are developed, they will be used to infer situations in the historical data where an air-traffic controller intervened on an aircraft's route, even when there is no direct recording of this action.

trajectory generation↗

NASA NTRS2023

Cosmological Shocks Around Galaxy Clusters: A Coherent Investigation With DES, SPT & ACT

We search for signatures of cosmological shocks in gas pressure profiles of galaxy clusters using the cluster catalogues from three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3, the South Pole Telescope (SPT) SZ survey, and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data releases 4, 5, and 6, and using thermal Sunyaev–Zeldovich (SZ) maps from SPT and ACT. The combined cluster sample contains around 105 clusters with mass and redshift ranges 10 13.7 200m /M ⊙ <10 15.5 and 0.1 < z < 2, and the total sky coverage of the maps is ≈15000deg 2 ⁠. We find a clear pressure deficit at R/R 200m ≈ 1.1 in SZ profiles around both ACT and SPT clusters, estimated at 6σ significance, which is qualitatively consistent with a shock-induced thermal non-equilibrium between electrons and ions. The feature is not as clearly determined in profiles around DES clusters. We verify that measurements using SPT or ACT maps are consistent across all scales, including in the deficit feature. The SZ profiles of optically selected and SZ-selected clusters are also consistent for higher mass clusters. Those of less massive, optically selected clusters are suppressed on small scales by factors of 2–5 compared to predictions, and we discuss possible interpretations of this behaviour. An oriented stacking of clusters – where the orientation is inferred from the SZ image, the brightest cluster galaxy, or the surrounding large-scale structure measured using galaxy catalogues – shows the normalization of the one-halo and two-halo terms vary with orientation. Finally, the location of the pressure deficit feature is statistically consistent with existing estimates of the splashback radius.

galaxies↗

DOE OSTI2026

FolpsD: combining EFT and phenomenological approaches for joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses

We present a theoretical model for the power spectrum and bispectrum of galaxy clustering that exploits the complementarity between small-scale power spectrum information and large-scale bispectrum measurements. We extend the FOLPS code by combining its one-loop EFT galaxy power spectrum with a tree-level galaxy bispectrum projected onto the tripolar spherical harmonics (Sugiyama) basis. To access additional small-scale information, we also consider a line-of-sight damping factor in both statistics, mirroring approaches commonly used in studies of redshift-space distortions. We test the model using DESI DR2 galaxy mocks. Even without damping, the joint analysis of the EFT power spectrum and bispectrum significantly improves constraints and reduces parameter degeneracies relative to power spectrum analyses alone. For LRG-like samples, including the damping further extends the range beyond $k\sim 0.3 \,h \text{Mpc}^{-1}$ in the power spectrum and $k \sim 0.24 \,h \text{Mpc}^{-1}$ in the bispectrum without introducing statistically significant parameter biases. This leads to up to $\sim 30\%$ tighter constraints on $A_s$ and $ω_{cdm}$. For low signal-to-noise tracers such as QSOs, however, the damping parameters are weakly constrained and can absorb noise fluctuations, leading to shifts in inferred parameters. Similar limitations may arise in models where cosmological information is encoded in power-spectrum shape features degenerate with the damping, such as scenarios with massive neutrinos. In contrast, for $w_0w_a$CDM we obtain $15\%$ and $21\%$ tighter constraints on $w_0$ and $w_a$, respectively, yielding a deviation from constant dark energy at slightly more than the $1σ$ level using full-shape information alone. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/cosmodesi/FolpsD

Bansal, P. [Michigan U., MCTP; Michigan U.] (ORCID↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources

Here, with the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to ± 250 m (2% at 90% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Formal Experimentation and Analysis of Handheld RFID Readers as a Tool for Nuclear Material Accounting

Commercial, off-the-shelf Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems have been successfully deployed for inventory tracking in numerous industries, but their viability in the tracking of complex environments containing nuclear material is less understood. Of primary interest in this setting is a RFID tracking system for nuclear material accounting which can reliably identify as many tags as possible with high accuracy, while also reducing an operator’s exposure to radiation. In this work, we develop a formal statistical approach to identify relevant handheld RFID reader settings which optimize tagging performance. To achieve this goal, we design a full factorial split-plot experiment for a static shelf configuration scene with 50 randomly placed nuclear material containers affixed with RFID tags. We use Bayesian inference to fit a second-order response surface model which expresses the probability of a successful match for each container as a function of the experimental factors. Such effects are allowed to vary across individual containers and the containers’ population in its entirety to estimate overall effects. Uncertainties of estimates and predictions are quantified via their corresponding posterior distributions. Following extensive model checking and validation, the fitted model is used to identify experimental factors which maximize matching probabilities at both the container-level and for the full shelf configuration scene. We also analyze sensitivity of performance to relevant factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1990

Pioneer-Venus radio occultation (ORO) data reduction: Profiles of 13 cm absorptivity

In order to characterize possible variations in the abundance and distribution of subcloud sulfuric acid vapor, 13 cm radio occultation signals from 23 orbits that occurred in late 1986 and 1987 (Season 10) and 7 orbits that occurred in 1979 (Season 1) were processed. The data were inverted via inverse Abel transform to produce 13 cm absorptivity profiles. Pressure and temperature profiles obtained with the Pioneer-Venus night probe and the northern probe were used along with the absorptivity profiles to infer upper limits for vertical profiles of the abundance of gaseous H2SO4. In addition to inverting the data, error bars were placed on the absorptivity profiles and H2SO4 abundance profiles using the standard propagation of errors. These error bars were developed by considering the effects of statistical errors only. The profiles show a distinct pattern with regard to latitude which is consistent with latitude variations observed in data obtained during the occultation seasons nos. 1 and 2. However, when compared with the earlier data, the recent occultation studies suggest that the amount of sulfuric acid vapor occurring at and below the main cloud layer may have decreased between early 1979 and late 1986.

Steffes, Paul G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Robust Fuzzy Controllers Using FPGAs

Electro-mechanical device controllers typically come in one of three forms, proportional (P), Proportional Derivative (PD), and Proportional Integral Derivative (PID). Two methods of control are discussed in this paper; they are (1) the classical technique that requires an in-depth mathematical use of poles and zeros, and (2) the fuzzy logic (FL) technique that is similar to the way humans think and make decisions. FL controllers are used in multiple industries; examples include control engineering, computer vision, pattern recognition, statistics, and data analysis. Presented is a study on the development of a PD motor controller written in very high speed hardware description language (VHDL), and implemented in FL. Four distinct abstractions compose the FL controller, they are the fuzzifier, the rule-base, the fuzzy inference system (FIS), and the defuzzifier. FL is similar to, but different from, Boolean logic; where the output value may be equal to 0 or 1, but it could also be equal to any decimal value between them. This controller is unique because of its VHDL implementation, which uses integer mathematics. To compensate for VHDL's inability to synthesis floating point numbers, a scale factor equal to 10(sup (N/4) is utilized; where N is equal to data word size. The scaling factor shifts the decimal digits to the left of the decimal point for increased precision. PD controllers are ideal for use with servo motors, where position control is effective. This paper discusses control methods for motion-base platforms where a constant velocity equivalent to a spectral resolution of 0.25 cm(exp -1) is required; however, the control capability of this controller extends to various other platforms.

Monroe, Author Gene S., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Estimating the Length of the North Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season

For the interval 1945-2011, the length of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic basin averages about 130 +/- 42 days (the +/-1 standard deviation interval), having a range of 47 to 235 days. Runs-testing reveals that the annual length of season varies nonrandomly at the 5% level of significance. In particular, its trend, as described using 10-yr moving averages, generally has been upward since about 1979, increasing from about 113 to 157 days (in 2003). Based on annual values, one finds a highly statistically important inverse correlation at the 0.1% level of significance between the length of season and the occurrence of the first storm day of the season. For the 2012 hurricane season, based on the reported first storm day of May 19, 2012 (i.e., DOY = 140), the inferred preferential regression predicts that the length of the current season likely will be about 173 +/- 23 days, suggesting that it will end about November 8 +/- 23 days, with only about a 5% chance that it will end either before about September 23, 2012 or after about December 24, 2012.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermonuclear neutron emission from a sheared-flow stabilized Z-pinch

We report the fusion Z-pinch experiment (FuZE) is a sheared-flow stabilized Z-pinch designed to study the effects of flow stabilization on deuterium plasmas with densities and temperatures high enough to drive nuclear fusion reactions. Results from FuZE show high pinch currents and neutron emission durations thousands of times longer than instability growth times. While these results are consistent with thermonuclear neutron emission, energetically resolved neutron measurements are a stronger constraint on the origin of the fusion production. This stems from the strong anisotropy in energy created in beam-target fusion, compared to the relatively isotropic emission in thermonuclear fusion. In dense Z-pinch plasmas, a potential and undesirable cause of beam-target fusion reactions is the presence of fast-growing, “sausage” instabilities. This work introduces a new method for characterizing beam instabilities by recording individual neutron interactions in plastic scintillator detectors positioned at two different angles around the device chamber. Histograms of the pulse-integral spectra from the two locations are compared using detailed Monte Carlo simulations. These models infer the deuteron beam energy based on differences in the measured neutron spectra at the two angles, thereby discriminating beam-target from thermonuclear production. An analysis of neutron emission profiles from FuZE precludes the presence of deuteron beams with energies greater than 4.65 keV with a statistical uncertainty of 4.15 keV and a systematic uncertainty of 0.53 keV. This analysis demonstrates that axial, beam-target fusion reactions are not the dominant source of neutron emission from FuZE. These data are promising for scaling FuZE up to fusion reactor conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

CCCP and MENeaCS: (updated) weak-lensing masses for 100 galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT Large area surveys continue to increase the samples of galaxy clusters that can be used to constrain cosmological parameters, provided that the masses of the clusters are measured robustly. To improve the calibration of cluster masses using weak gravitational lensing we present new results for 48 clusters at 0.05 < z < 0.15, observed as part of the Multi Epoch Nearby Cluster Survey, and re-evaluate the mass estimates for 52 clusters from the Canadian Cluster Comparison Project. Updated high-fidelity photometric redshift catalogues of reference deep fields are used in combination with advances in shape measurements and state-of-the-art cluster simulations, yielding an average systematic uncertainty in the lensing signal below 5 per cent, similar to the statistical uncertainty for our cluster sample. We derive a scaling relation with Planck measurements for the full sample and find a bias in the Planck masses of 1 − b = 0.84 ± 0.04 (stat) ±0.05 (syst). We find no statistically significant trend of the mass bias with redshift or cluster mass, but find that different selections could change the bias by up to 0.07. We find a gas fraction of 0.139 ± 0.014 (stat) for eight relaxed clusters in our sample, which can also be used to infer cosmological parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1986

Earth rotation as a proxy for interannual variability in atmospheric circulation, 1860-present

Modern atmospheric and geodetic data sets have demonstrated that changes in the axial component of the atmosphere's angular momentum and in the rotation rate of the solid earth are closely coupled on time scales of up to several years. The feasibility of using a historical record of the earth's rotation as a proxy for year-to-year changes in the zonal wind field over the globe is examined. The bulk of the earth rotation series acquired for this purpose is based on telescopic observations of the occultation of stars by the moon; semiannual values of changes in the length of day derived from these observations have acceptably small errors from about 1860 onwards. These values are filtered to remove decade-scale fluctuations, which are driven primarily by nonatmospheric processes, and the resulting proxy series is examined to see if it contains a signal associated with one of the major modes of interannual variability in the atmosphere, namely that due to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). According to tests of statistical significance, such a signal is present in the historical earth rotation series, in that the day is typically longer during the year following an ENSO oceanic warm event than otherwise. Therefore other signals of interannual variability in the proxy series are considered. In particular, it is inferred that noteworthy trends in atmospheric interannual variability have occurred over the last century; for example, the decade of the 1920s was marked by much larger year-to-year changes in the zonal circulation over the globe than that of the 1940s. Based on modern atmospheric data, it is suggested that most of these circulation changes have resulted from anomalies in the region between 30 deg N and 30 deg S.

Salstein, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Bayesian Approach to the Joint Inversion of Gravity and Magnetic Data, with Application to the Ismenius Area of Mars

This viewgraph presentation reviews a Bayesian approach to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data with specific application to the Ismenius Area of Mars. Many inverse problems encountered in geophysics and planetary science are well known to be non-unique (i.e. inversion of gravity the density structure of a body). In hopes of reducing the non-uniqueness of solutions, there has been interest in the joint analysis of data. An example is the joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data, with the assumption that the same physical anomalies generate both the observed magnetic and gravitational anomalies. In this talk, we formulate the joint analysis of different types of data in a Bayesian framework and apply the formalism to the inference of the density and remanent magnetization structure for a local region in the Ismenius area of Mars. The Bayesian approach allows prior information or constraints in the solutions to be incorporated in the inversion, with the "best" solutions those whose forward predictions most closely match the data while remaining consistent with assumed constraints. The application of this framework to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data on Mars reveals two typical challenges - the forward predictions of the data have a linear dependence on some of the quantities of interest, and non-linear dependence on others (termed the "linear" and "non-linear" variables, respectively). For observations with Gaussian noise, a Bayesian approach to inversion for "linear" variables reduces to a linear filtering problem, with an explicitly computable "error" matrix. However, for models whose forward predictions have non-linear dependencies, inference is no longer given by such a simple linear problem, and moreover, the uncertainty in the solution is no longer completely specified by a computable "error matrix". It is therefore important to develop methods for sampling from the full Bayesian posterior to provide a complete and statistically consistent picture of model uncertainty, and what has been learned from observations. We will discuss advanced numerical techniques, including Monte Carlo Markov

data analysis↗

NASA NTRS2024

Digital Lunar Exploration Sites (DLES) Terrain Crafting

Humans will soon be returning to the surface of the Moon with NASA’s Artemis program. The Artemis program is an international collaboration that will consist of a complex series of space systems and missions to explore the lunar surface and pave the way for the future exploration of Mars. NASA and its partners rely heavily on simulation for lighting and navigation studies as well as training astronauts, flight controllers, and mission support staff. The NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team in the Simulation and Graphics Branch (ER7) in the Engineering Directorate at NASA’s Johnson Space Center has built up many simulation products to support this effort, one of which is the Digital Lunar Exploration Sites (DLES). DLES is a collection of products used to simulate and render the lunar surface in a digital environment. We discussed and presented an overview of the DLES products at the 2022 IEEE Aerospace Conference in Big Sky, MT with a paper titled "Digital Lunar Exploration Sites". This “DLES Terrain Crafting” paper will expand on the information previously provided in “DLES” paper and dive deeper into the details of the terrain crafting process and the toolsets used to support this task. The best digital data currently available of the lunar surface is provided by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). Its Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) achieves an impressive resolution of 5m per pixel at the Lunar South Pole (LSP) and can generate datasets covering a large continuous region near the LSP. There are a few additional methods, such as Shape from Shading which can infer higher resolution data (up to 1m per pixel) from the LRO Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) images. However, surface-based simulations require higher-resolution data, and this paper will discuss the process of enhancing the terrain to meet that need. The process begins with capturing statistical data of craters in the regions of interest using images provided by the LRO NAC. This data is then used to scatter artificial features which are not captured in the truth data, resulting in an enhanced DEM with a much higher resolution of 20cm per pixel. Many tools were built up to assist in the creation of these artificial Digital Elevation Models (DEM), which this paper will discuss in detail. DEMs themselves are a very powerful representation of a planetary surface, and many operations and tools can utilize the data they contain. This paper includes a description of the rendering of the lunar surface in a graphics engine, generation of contact patches to simulate tire to ground interaction, and ray tracing utilities to model Line of Sight (LOS) interactions with the terrain. This paper will also explore some new tool sets currently under development which aim to utilize Machine Learning (ML) to assist in the identification of craters from LRO NAC imagery. While this is not a novel idea, the NExSyS team is developing a unique approach which may result in more robust identification of crater characteristics.

Artemis↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model validation for inferred hot-spot conditions in National Ignition Facility experiments

Progress toward ignition requires accurately diagnosing current conditions and assessing proximity metrics for implosion experiments on the National Ignition Facility. Hot-spot conditions are not directly measured, but rather inferred, often using simple 0- and 1D models [P. Patel et al., Phys. Plasmas 27, 050901 (2020)]. In this work, we present a detailed accuracy validation exercise using a set of ~20,000 2D simulations encompassing a variety of performance and degradation levels. We find good agreement between the model-inferred pressure and the simulated burn-weighted pressure at peak neutron production and also present results on the precision of inferred quantities using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A multishock model for the density variance of anisotropic, highly magnetized, supersonic turbulence

ABSTRACT Shocks form the basis of our understanding for the density and velocity statistics of supersonic turbulent flows, such as those found in the cool interstellar medium (ISM). The variance of the density field, $\sigma ^2_{\rho /\rho _0}$, is of particular interest for molecular clouds (MCs), the birthplaces of stars in the Universe. The density variance may be used to infer underlying physical processes in an MC, and parametrizes the star formation (SF) rate of a cloud. However, models for $\sigma ^2_{\rho /\rho _0}$ all share a common feature – the variance is assumed to be isotropic. This assumption does not hold when a trans-/sub-Alfvénic mean magnetic field, ${B}_0$, is present in the cloud, which observations suggest is relevant for some MCs. We develop an anisotropic model for $\sigma _{\rho /\rho _0}^2$, using contributions from hydrodynamical and fast magnetosonic shocks that propagate orthogonal to each other. Our model predicts an upper bound for $\sigma _{\rho /\rho _0}^2$ in the high Mach number $(\mathcal {M})$ limit as small-scale density fluctuations become suppressed by the strong ${B}_0$. The model reduces to the isotropic $\sigma _{\rho /\rho _0}^2\!-\!\mathcal {M}$ relation in the hydrodynamical limit. To validate our model, we calculate $\sigma _{\rho /\rho _0}^2$ from 12 high-resolution, three-dimensional, supersonic, sub-Alfvénic magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) turbulence simulations and find good agreement with our theory. We discuss how the two MHD shocks may be the bimodally oriented overdensities observed in some MCs and the implications for SF theory in the presence of a sub-Alfvénic ${B}_0$. By creating an anisotropic, supersonic density fluctuation model, this study paves the way for SF theory in the highly anisotropic regime of interstellar turbulence.

Beattie, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1977

LANDSAT menhaden and thread herring resources investigation

The author has identified the following significant results. The relationship between the distribution of menhaden and selected oceanographic parameters (water color, turbidity, and possibly chlorophyll concentrations) was established. Similar relationships for thread herring were not established nor were relationships relating to the abundance of either species. Use of aircraft and LANDSAT remote sensing instruments to measure or infer a set of basic oceanographic parameters was evaluated. Parameters which could be accurately inferred included surface water temperature, salinity, and color. Water turbidity (Secchi disk) was evaluated as marginally inferrable from the LANDSAT MSS data and chlorophyll-a concentrations as less than marginal. These evaluations considered the parameters only as experienced in the two test areas using available sensors and statistical techniques.

Kemmerer, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Soil moisture from temperature measurements at the Earth's surface, update

Soil moisture budgets at the Earth's surface were investigated based on soil and atmospheric temperature variations. A number of data sets were plotted and statistically analyzed in order to accentuate the existence and the characteristics of mesoscale soil temperature extrema variations and their relations to other parameters. The correlations between diurnal temperature extrema for air and soil in drought and non-drought periods appear to follow different characteristic patterns, allowing an inference of soil moisture content from temperature data. The recovery of temperature extrema after a precipitation event also follows a characteristic power curve rise between two limiting values which is an indicator of evaporation rates. If these indicators are applied universally to regional temperature data, soil moisture content or drought conditions can be inferred directly from temperature measurements.

Welker, J. E.↗