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DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Innovations improve technology costs through various kinds of engineering advancements, including changes to materials choices and device or process designs. Understanding how these innovations relate to cost change can reveal aspects of the process of technology evolution, yet developing such understanding is often not possible with a strictly quantitative approach due to data limitations. In this paper we develop a hybrid quantitative-qualitative framework for relating specific innovations to cost change by using the variables in a quantitative technology cost change model as an organizing principle. We demonstrate this framework by applying it to the cost decline in photovoltaic (PV) systems over the last five decades. This framework generates new understanding of a set of innovations that contributed to PV modules’ sustained cost decline and the more modest trends observed in balance-of-system (BOS) costs. The results show the great diversity of innovations that affected PV costs, drawing on wide-ranging fields of expertise within scientific research and practice. We find that there are differences in the characteristics of innovations that reduced the cost of PV modules compared to innovations influencing BOS costs. Numerous module innovations reduced costs by advancing manufacturing tools and processes that improved material quality. Many BOS innovations reduced costs through a combination of component design changes, integration, automation, digitalization, and standardization. Overall, most innovations in our sample affected PV hardware. However, some also target ‘soft technologies’ such as task durations through innovations like fast-track permitting, which require improved collaboration and process streamlining. This framework also provides insight into the nature of knowledge spillovers between technologies. Both module and BOS hardware innovations show the benefits of PV’s position within an ‘ecosystem’ of continuously advancing technologies in many industries, in particular semiconductors and electronics, and also point to the importance of public institutions for accelerating testing, permitting, and training.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

CTRL-STEER: Closed-Loop Neuron Activation Control in Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models enable test-time behavioral steering via neuron-level interventions, but existing methods use fixed strengths and operate in open loop. This static modulation fails under evolving task dynamics, leading to overcorrection, oscillations, and reduced task success—especially for temporal attributes like speed. We propose CTRL-STEER, a control-theoretic framework that casts activation steering as closed-loop feedback with adaptive, time-varying interventions. Instead of assuming neurons encode temporal concepts, we steer along motion-aligned residual directions and regulate intervention magnitude via feedback. We instantiate this with both PID and reinforcement learning controllers that jointly optimize concept adherence and task success. Experiments on fine-tuned OpenVLA policies across four LIBERO suites show improved stability and a better steering–success trade-off over fixed-coefficient baselines, without retraining the base model.

Babu, Abhijith [Florida International University, ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Price-Taker: Multiscale Optimization of Wind and Battery Integrated Energy Systems

Integrating renewable energy into the electric grid is challenging due to the intermittency and variability of wind and other non-dispatchable resources. Integrated energy systems (IESs) combine multiple energy technologies (e.g., fossil, nuclear, renewables, storage) to reduce costs and improve flexibility and reliability. However, standard techno-economic analysis (TEA) methods often overestimate the benefits of IESs because they fail to account for energy market adjustments. This paper systematically studies the limitations of the prevailing price-taker assumption for TEA and optimization of hybrid energy systems. As an illustrative case study, we retrofit an existing wind farm in the RTS-GMLC test system (which loosely mimics the Southwest U.S.) with battery energy storage to form an IES. We show that the standard price-taker model overestimates the electricity revenue and the net present value (NPV) of the IES up to 178% and 30.4%, respectively, compared to our more rigorous multiscale optimization. These differences arise because introducing storage creates a more flexible resource that impacts the larger wholesale electricity market. Moreover, this work highlights the impact of the IES has on the market via various strategic bidding, and underscores the importance of moving beyond price-taker for optimal storage sizing and TEA of IESs. We conclude by discussing opportunities to generalize the proposed framework to other IESs, and highlight emerging research questions regarding the complex interactions between IESs and markets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analytical noise bias correction for precise weak lensing shear inference

Noise bias is a significant source of systematic error in weak gravitational lensing measurements that must be corrected to satisfy the stringent standards of modern imaging surveys in the era of precision cosmology. This paper reviews the analytical noise bias correction method and provides analytical derivations demonstrating that we can recover shear to its second order using the ‘renoising’ noise bias correction approach introduced by METACALIBRATION. We implement this analytical noise bias correction within the AnaCal shear estimation framework and propose several enhancements to the noise bias correction algorithm. We evaluate the improved AnaCal using simulations designed to replicate Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) imaging data. These simulations feature semi-realistic galaxies and stars, complete with representative distributions of magnitudes and Galactic spatial density. We conduct tests under various observational challenges, including cosmic rays, defective CCD columns, bright star saturation, bleed trails, and spatially variable point spread functions. Our results indicate a multiplicative bias in weak lensing shear recovery of less than a few tenths of a per cent, meeting LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration requirements without requiring calibration from external image simulations. Additionally, our algorithm achieves rapid processing, handling one galaxy in less than a millisecond.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Alternating Direction Decomposition with Strong Bounding and Convexification (ADDSBC) for Solving Security Constrained AC Unit Commitment Problems

This project aims to develop efficient and robust computational methods for solving the security-constrained unit commitment and alternating current optimal power flow problem (SC-UC-ACOPF). The SC-UC-ACOPF problem is at the center of the short-term operation of the U.S. Power Grid. It is solved every week, every day, and every 10 minutes to plan for the optimal action of electricity generation and consumption by minimizing the generation cost and maintaining power system reliability against potential disruptions of equipment failures. In mathematical terms, SC-UC-ACOPF is a challenging large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear optimization model. This means that the decisions involve both discrete variables, e.g. the turning on and off of generators and switching of transmission lines and transformers, and continuous decisions, e.g. the amount of energy generated by each generator and the power flows in the power grid. The physics of the power flow is described by nonlinear equations involving real and reactive power and bus voltages. Another key feature is the large number of contingencies, i.e. the system needs to stay reliable in face of failure of any one equipment, such as transmission lines and generators. The U.S. power grids are extremely complicated and large scale with more than 5,000 generators, 50,000 buses, and 100,000 high-voltage transmission lines, making the SC-UC-ACOPF a very large-scale computation challenge. The research developed in this project aims to solve the SC-UC-ACOPF problems in the three timescales, i.e. weekly, daily, and every 10-min. The proposed computational methods are built on a principled algorithmic approach of decomposition and penalization. More specifically, the algorithm develops spatial and temporal decomposition by exploiting the strong temporal coupling and weak spatial coupling of the UC problem and the complementary feature, i.e. weak temporal coupling and strong spatial coupling of the ACOPF problem. The algorithm also leverages recent progresses in strong convex relaxation of ACOPF. A unique feature of the proposed approach is that it generates a valid, global upper bound on the optimal maximum profit. In this way, a global optimality gap is available to measure the quality of the solution. To further speed up computation, the research team has developed a plethora of effective heuristics to strengthen the iterative penalty-based decomposition framework. For instance, a heuristic is developed to construct inner approximations of the time coupling constraints within the time decoupled problems. Contingencies are pre-screened and low-rank matrix computation is exploited to find the almost unique solution to each contingency. A novel heuristic for line switching is proposed and tested with positive impacts on instances where line switching is beneficial. Taking a systematic approach and carefully handling every detail of the problem pays off. The TIM-GO’s performance throughout the trials and the final event was stellar. TIM-GO garnered the second highest total prize money and is ranked in the top three positions across all categories of comparison.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining GREA, an alternative theory accounting for the present cosmic acceleration

The origin of the Universe's late-time accelerated expansion remains unknown. The General Relativistic Entropic Acceleration (GREA) theory offers a compelling alternative to $Λ$CDM, attributing cosmic acceleration to entropy growth associated with cosmic and black hole horizons, without invoking a cosmological constant. We test GREA against the latest DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), multiple Type Ia supernova compilations (Union3, Pantheon$\texttt{+}$, DES-SN5YR), and cosmic microwave background (CMB) distance measurements. While GREA is not nested within $Λ$CDM, it achieves a comparable goodness-of-fit, highlighting its potential as a theoretically motivated framework that circumvents some of the fine-tuning issues of the standard $Λ$CDM cosmology. We find that the best-fit model features a transient phantom crossing at $z \lesssim 2$, with $w_a\equiv \mathrm{d} w(a=1)/\mathrm{d}a \simeq-0.3$, in good agreement with observations. However, its present-day value $w_0\equiv w(z=0)$ is tightly constrained to be $w_0\simeq-1$. Upcoming low-redshift (i.e. $z < 1$) cosmological probes, from both background and perturbations, will offer promising avenues for further exploring the viability of the GREA theory.

Calderon, R. [Prague, Inst. Phys.] (ORCID:00000002↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward Continuous, Oriented Covalent Organic Framework Membranes for Precise Molecular Separations

The goal of achieving energy-efficient, precise molecular separations has motivated interest in developing and employing porous crystalline frameworks as membrane materials. Covalent organic frameworks (COFs) are ordered crystalline matrices composed of covalently bonded organic monomers and are synthesized via reversible reticular chemistry. COFs possess high porosity, structural tunability, and chemical and thermal stability, making them ideally suited for emerging, high-value membrane separation processes, such as ion separations, organic solvent nanofiltration, and gas separations. Although a range of COF membranes have been fabricated and tested in the past decade, these membranes are primarily polycrystalline, weakly crystalline, and/or discontinuous, resulting in suboptimal performance. In this review, we identify the properties that make COFs well-suited as membrane materials, while critically outlining the shortcomings of existing disordered COF membranes. We then highlight the recent emergence of highly crystalline, continuous, oriented two-dimensional COF membranes as a promising path forward for highly selective molecular separations. These continuous, oriented COF membranes exhibit tunable one-dimensional nanochannels, allowing for ultrafast molecular transport and precise species selectivity, thereby expanding the set of separations that can be practically achieved with membrane systems. We discuss synthesis and modification techniques that result in continuous, oriented COF membranes and evaluate the performance of such membranes for a variety of molecular separations. We conclude by identifying ongoing challenges in the development of COF membranes and outlining the future of their applications in molecular separations, which will necessarily rely on advancements in the synthesis of continuous, oriented membranes.

COF modification↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Poromechanical Framework for Internal Interactions Induced by Solid Inclusions

The framework of poromechanics is generalized to simulate the multiscale behavior of porous media subjected to internal loadings stemming from the growth of solid inclusions. This generalization is designed to enable the study of anisotropic internal stress generation from solid growth within the pores, while recovering isotropic fluid-induced loading as a particular case. For this purpose, a mathematical strategy to define constitutive tensors in a thermodynamically consistent form is proposed, thus offering new opportunities for determining the poromechanical properties of a porous solid through advanced experimentation or micromechanical models. The framework is specialized by means of established elastic solutions for single pore–matrix interaction, as well as through homogenization schemes considering the interaction among congruent pores. In particular, the second Eshelby solution and the Tanaka–Mori–Benveniste homogenization scheme are used to derive a microporoelastic model. At an elemental scale, the model is tested under mixed control conditions by replicating different scenarios of geomaterial testing. In addition, the model characteristics are outlined with reference to inelastic microscopic loadings replicating chemo-mechanical forcing, such as expansive crystal formation. Through a series of parametric analyses, it is shown that the microstructure of the pores significantly influences the properties of porous media. Most notably, it is shown that the effects of a solid forming within the pores depend in a highly nonlinear fashion on the constitutive characteristics of the inhomogeneities and can therefore not be readily quantified or predicted without models capturing the diverse multiscale interactions among pores, inhomogeneities, and matrix.

chemomechanics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Feasibility of Formulating Ecosystem Biogeochemical Models From Established Physical Rules

Abstract To improve the predictive capability of ecosystem biogeochemical models (EBMs), we discuss the feasibility of formulating biogeochemical processes using physical rules that have underpinned the many successes in computational physics and chemistry. We argue that the currently popular empirically based approaches, such as multiplicative empirical response functions and the law of the minimum, will not lead to EBM formulations that can be continuously refined to incorporate improved mechanistic understanding and empirical observations of biogeochemical processes. Instead, we propose that EBM parameterizations, as a lossy data compression problem, can be better formulated using established physical rules widely used in computational physics and chemistry, and different biogeochemical processes can be more robustly integrated within a reactive‐transport framework. Through several examples, we demonstrate how mathematical representations derived from physical rules can improve understanding of relevant biogeochemical processes and enable more effective communication between modelers, observationalists, and experimentalists regarding essential questions, such as what measurements are needed to meaningfully inform models and how can models generate new process‐level hypotheses to test in empirical studies. Finally, while empirical models with more parameters are often less robust, physical rules‐based models can be more robust and show lower predictive equifinality, stemming from their enhanced consistency in representations of processes, interactions and spatial scaling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Voltage Calculations in Secondary Distribution Networks via Physics-Inspired Neural Network Using Smart Meter Data

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) leads to voltage issues across distribution networks, necessitating voltage calculations by utilities. Electric model-free voltage calculation offers an enticing solution. However, most researches mainly focus on primary distribution networks ignoring secondary distribution networks and commonly overlook extreme voltage case calculations, which require the model’s extrapolation abilities. Here, in addressing the gaps, this paper presents a customized physics-inspired neural network (PINN) model, the structure of which is inspired by the derived coupled power flow model of primary-secondary distribution networks. To ensure precision and rapid convergence, a crafted training framework for the PINN model is proposed. The PINN’s “structure-mimetic” design enables superior extrapolation for unseen scenarios and enhances physical information awareness. We demonstrate this through two applications: hosting capacity analysis and customer-transformer connectivity. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed PINN model are validated on two public testing systems and one utility distribution feeder model.

Distribution network↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Large Language Model Agents in Cybersecurity: A Literature Review with Experiments

The accelerated development and integration of large language model (LLM) agents have led researchers and developers to explore their effectiveness in cybersecurity, specifically with penetration testing (pentesting). Recent research efforts have attempted to use LLM agents to automate the process of pentesting because of the cost and time requirements that are required to perform a manual review. However, not all of the tools perform as expected. This paper reviews some of the newest and most popular autonomous pentesting frameworks, highlighting the capabilities and limitations of each one with the goal of providing the components needed to successfully and effectively build an autonomous pentesting agent in the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental and Numerical Characterization of High Temperature Deformation Behavior of 347H Stainless Steel

This study investigates how temperature affects the plasticity and thermal creep behavior of 347H stainless steel under uniaxial tension. The research combined experimental testing with advanced computational modeling. Two types of experiments were conducted: uniaxial tensile tests at temperatures from 100°C to 750°C using strain rates of ~10⁻⁴ s⁻¹, and creep tests at temperatures between 600°C and 750°C under various stress levels. These experimental results were used to develop and validate a new integrated mechanistic model that can predict material behavior under any loading condition while accounting for both stress and temperature effects. The model was implemented using a polycrystalline microstructure simulation framework based on elasto-viscoplastic Fast Fourier Transform (EVPFFT). It incorporates three key deformation mechanisms: thermally activated dislocation glide, dislocation climb, and vacancy diffusional creep. The model accounts for internal stress distribution within single crystals and considers how precipitates and solute atoms (both interstitial and substitutional) affect dislocation movement. After validation against experimental data, the model was used to generate Ashby-Weertman deformation mechanism maps for 347H steel, providing new insights into how microstructure influences the activation of different creep mechanisms.

Joy, Jobin K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transient Stability Enhancement via a Scalable RL Method with VSG Parameter Tuning

This paper presents a reinforcement learning (RL)-driven strategy to improve the transient stability of power systems via tuning parameters of multiple virtual synchronous generators (VSGs). We proposed a scalable method to support RL training convergence probability and speed, even when a large number of contingencies are considered. The proposed scalable RL framework first decomposes the large number of contingencies into multiple groups and then conducts parallel training for each group, decreasing the state space and complexity of each training. Additionally, we propose a contingency grouping algorithm to streamline the RL action space and facilitate the training. The proposed method is validated across various standard test systems.

Huang, Xiaoge↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Demonstration of the Digital Twin Certification System Remote Operations Framework

Microreactors are one promising advanced-reactor concept being pursued by the nuclear industry. They are distinguished by a relatively low power output of 20 MWth or less. These microreactors are intended for deployment in applications where conventional small-capacity power solutions, such as diesel generators, are either economically unfeasible or logistically challenging. Such applications include providing electric power and/or heat for remote communities, mining sites, defense installations, and humanitarian and disaster-relief missions. An important feature for the successful deployment of microreactors is their capability to be operated remotely. This capability can significantly reduce staffing costs by eliminating the need for licensed operators to be physically present at each reactor site. Instead, operators can be centralized in a single remote operations center placed in an economically advantageous location, thereby optimizing resources by consolidating expertise and enhancing operational efficiency. However, the implementation of a remote operation system for nuclear reactors raises new concerns regarding the security, reliability, and resilience of such a system. One way in which remote operations can be supported in a manner that maintains system security, reliability, and resilience is through the use of digital twins in a novel framework designed to verify and validate sensor data and commands communicated between the remote operations center and reactor. This framework, known as the Digital Twin Certification System (DTCS), has previously been proposed as an operations architecture that can bring security and resiliency levels of remote nuclear-reactor operations to a level acceptable for commercial deployment. This paper moves the proposed DTCS architecture from concept to reality by presenting the implementation and testing of the system. The rationale and implementation of the DTCS using tools such as DeepLynx and Apache Airflow, is covered in-depth. This is followed by a demonstration of the DTCS by applying the implemented system architecture to the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator, a small-scale non-nuclear test bed that emulates thermal behavior of a microreactor. The demonstration includes both normal and abnormal operating scenarios to highlight how the DTCS can increase the security, reliability, and resilience of a remote operations system.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Demonstration of the Digital Twin Certification System Remote Operations Framework

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Zirconium‐Based Metal–Organic Frameworks with Free Hydroxy Groups for Enhanced Perfluorooctanoic Acid Uptake in Water

Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) is a highly recalcitrant organic pollutant, and its bioaccumulation severely endangers human health. While various methods are developed for PFOA removal, the targeted design of adsorbents with high efficiency and reusability remains largely unexplored. Here, in this work, the rational design and synthesis of two novel zirconium‐based metal‒organic frameworks (MOFs) bearing free ortho ‐hydroxy sites, namely noninterpenetrated PCN‐1001 and twofold interpenetrated PCN‐1002, are presented. Single crystal analysis of the pure ligand reveals that intramolecular hydrogen bonding plays a pivotal role in directing the formation of MOFs with free hydroxy groups. Furthermore, the transformation from PCN‐1001 to PCN‐1002 is realized. Compared to PCN‐1001, PCN‐1002 displays higher chemical stability due to interpenetration, thereby demonstrating an exceptional PFOA adsorption capacity of up to 632 mg g −1 (1.53 mmol g −1 ), which is comparable to the reported record values. Moreover, PCN‐1002 shows rapid kinetics, high selectivity, and long‐life cycles in PFOA removal tests. Solid‐state nuclear magnetic resonance results and density functional theory calculations reveal that multiple hydrogen bonds between the free ortho ‐hydroxy sites and PFOA, along with Lewis acid‐base interaction, work collaboratively to enhance PFOA adsorption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗