Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “trend estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Estimation of Daily PM(sub 10) Concentrations in Italy (2006-2012) Using Finely Resolved Satellite Data, Land Use Variables and Meteorology

Health effects of air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM), have been widely investigated. However, most of the studies rely on few monitors located in urban areas for short-term assessments, or land use/dispersion modelling for long-term evaluations, again mostly in cities. Recently, the availability of finely resolved satellite data provides an opportunity to estimate daily concentrations of air pollutants over wide spatio-temporal domains. Italy lacks a robust and validated high resolution spatio-temporally resolved model of particulate matter. The complex topography and the air mixture from both natural and anthropogenic sources are great challenges difficult to be addressed. We combined finely resolved data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm, ground-level PM10measurements, land-use variables and meteorological parameters into a four-stage mixed model framework to derive estimates of daily PM10concentrations at 1-km2 grid over Italy, for the years 2006-2012. We checked performance of our models by applying 10-fold cross-validation (CV) for each year. Our models displayed good fitting, with mean CV-R2=0.65 and little bias (average slope of predicted VS observed PM10=0.99). Out-of-sample predictions were more accurate in Northern Italy (Po valley) and large conurbations (e.g. Rome), for background monitoring stations, and in the winter season. Resulting concentration maps showed highest average PM10levels in specific areas (Po river valley, main industrial and metropolitan areas) with decreasing trends over time. Our daily predictions of PM10concentrations across the whole Italy will allow, for the first time, estimation of long-term and short-term effects of air pollution nationwide, even in areas lacking monitoring data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Particulate Matter/analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022

Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2004

Estimations of the Global Distribution and Time Series of UV Noontime Irradiance (305, 310, 324, 380 nm, and Erythemal) from TOMS and SeaWiFS Data

The amount of UV irradiance reaching the Earth's surface is estimated from the measured cloud reflectivity, ozone, aerosol amounts, and surface reflectivity time series from 1980 to 1992 and 1997 to 2000 to estimate changes that have occurred over a 21-year period. Recent analysis of the TOMS data shows that there has been an apparent increase in reflectivity (decrease in W) in the Southern Hemisphere that is related to a calibration error in EP-TOMS. Data from the well-calibrated SeaWiFS satellite instrument have been used to correct the EP-TOMS reflectivity and UV time series. After correction, some of the local trend features seen in the N7 time series (1980 to 1992) have been continued in the combined time series, but the overall zonal average and global trends have changed. In addition to correcting the EP-TOMS radiance calibration, the use of SeaWiFS cloud data permits estimation of UV irradiance at higher spatial resolution (1 to 4 km) than is available from TOMS (100 km) under the assumption that ozone is slowly varying over a scale of 100 km. The key results include a continuing decrease in cloud cover over Europe and North America with a corresponding increase in UV and a decrease in UV irradiance near Antarctica.

Herman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Recent Progress on Deep Blue Aerosol Algorithm as Applied TO MODIS, SEA WIFS, and VIIRS, and Their Intercomparisons with Ground Based and Other Satellite Measurements

The impact of natural and anthropogenic sources of aerosols has gained increasing attention from scientific communities in recent years. Indeed, tropospheric aerosols not only perturb radiative energy balance by interacting with solar and terrestrial radiation, but also by changing cloud properties and lifetime. Furthermore, these anthropogenic and natural air particles, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across oceans and continents resulting in important biogeochemical impacts on the ecosystem. With the launch of SeaWiFS in 1997, Terra/MODIS in 1999, and Aqua/MODIS in 2002, high quality comprehensive aerosol climatology is becoming feasible for the first time. As a result of these unprecedented data records, studies of the radiative and biogeochemical effects due to tropospheric aerosols are now possible. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this newly available SeaWiFS/MODIS aerosol climatology can provide an important piece of puzzles in reducing the uncertainty of estimated climatic forcing due to aerosols. We will start with the global distribution of aerosol loading and their variabilities over both land and ocean on short- and long-term temporal scales observed over the last decade. The recent progress made in Deep Blue aerosol algorithm on improving accuracy of these Sea WiFS / MODIS aerosol products in particular over land will be discussed. The impacts on quantifying physical and optical processes of aerosols over source regions of adding the Deep Blue products of aerosol properties over bright-reflecting surfaces into Sea WiFS / MODIS as well as VIIRS data suite will also be addressed. We will also show the intercomparison results of SeaWiFS/MODIS retrieved aerosol optical thickness with data from ground based AERONET sunphotometers over land and ocean as well as with other satellite measurements. The trends observed in global aerosol loadings of both natural and anthropogenic sources based upon more than a decade of combined MODIS/SeaWiFS data (1997-2011) will be discussed. We will also address the importance of various key issues such as differences in spatial-temporal sampling rates and observation time between different satellite measurements could potentially impact these intercomparisons results, especially for using the monthly mean data, and thus on estimates of long-term aerosol trends.

Hsu, N. Christina↗
NASA NTRS1985

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

Moreno, Vito↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the Diffusion Coefficient of Lithium in Graphite: Extremely Fast Charging and a Comparison of Data Analysis Techniques

Galvanostatic intermittent titration experiments were performed in three-electrode cells to characterize the effect of C/2, 2-C and 4-C charge rates on the observed lithium diffusion coefficient. As part of the data analysis process, we compared the classic Weppner-Huggins analysis of polarization data with a newer (Wang et al.) analysis method for depolarization data. At low values of x in Li x C 6 , both analysis methods showed the same general trend in the apparent lithium diffusion coefficient, 4-C > 2-C > C/2. The two techniques differed in the magnitude of the estimated diffusion coefficient by about a factor of 100. The observed increase in diffusion coefficient does not last over a large compositional range. Since the estimates from the method of Weppner and Huggins may contain artifacts due to the use of particulate electrodes and high charge rates, the method of Wang et al. may produce better values.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

Sundaram, Meenakshi↗
NASA NTRS1979

Calculations of transonic boattail flow at small angle of attack

A transonic flow past a boattailed afterbody under a small angle of attack was examined. It is known that the viscous effect offers significant modifications of the pressure distribution on the afterbody. Thus, the formulation for the inviscid flow was based on the consideration of a flow past a nonaxisymmetric body. The full three dimensional potential equation was solved through numerical relaxation, and quasi-axisymmetric boundary layer calculations were performed to estimate the displacement effect. It was observed again that the viscous effects were not negligible. The trend of the final results agreed well with the experimental data.

Nakayama, A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Energetic particle recurrence and escape during solar cycle 20

Low-energy solar particle data have been combined from a multi-spacecraft near-earth data set covering most of solar cycle 20 (1966-1976). Particle intensity profiles have been ordered in the natural heliographic coordinate system of the estimated high coronal connection longitude of the foot point of the interplanetary field line. The recurrence trends of approximately 1-MeV solar particles become more apparent in this coordinate system than when plotted versus time, and thereby extend the evidence for regions of continual injection and escape from the corona. Intercomparison of solar particles and solar wind streams in heliographic longitude suggests that the origin of stream-associated spatial particle events seen at 1 AU is solar rather than interplanetary.

Gold, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Satellite sensor estimates of Northern Hemisphere snow volume

In the Northern Hemisphere the mean monthly snow-covered area ranges from about 7 percent of the land area in summer to over 40 percent in winter, thus making snow one of the most rapidly varying natural surface features. The mean monthly snow volume ranges from about 1.5 x 10 to the 16th g in summer to about 3.0 x 10 to the 18th g in winter. Currently several algorithms utilizing passive microwave brightness temperatures are available to estimate snow cover and depth. The algorithm presented here uses the difference between the 37-GHz channel and the 18-GHz channel of the SMMR on the Nimbus-7 satellite to derive estimates of snow volume. Even though satellite sensor snow records are currently too short to reveal trends, continued monitoring over about the next 10 years should make it possible to establish whether incipient or current trends are significant in the context of global climate change.

Chang, A. T. C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Surface Time-Variable Gravity Signals and Possible Sources Including Core Mass Flow

Over two decades of geodetic satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) data show that the variation of the Earth's oblateness parameter J2 has a clear seasonal signal of amplitude of about 3e-10 and a secular decrease of about -2.8e-11/year, superimposed on some interesting interannual fluctuations. Physically, any change in mass distribution or/inside the Earth will be reflected in the time-variable gravity signal obtained outside the Earth, according to Newton s gravitational law. Therefore, such signal contains contributions from all geophysical sources that redistribute mass, on all temporal and spatial scales, including those from the core. Besides Earth rotation and geomagnetic field variations, the time-variable gravity also contains information linking Earth surface observations with internal core dynamical processes. The time scales of the gravity signal are critical in helping differentiate different contributions. The atmosphere and hydrosphere are responsible for the seasonal and much of the interannual and intraseasoanl fluctuations, while the secular trend is due mainly to the post-glacial rebound but possibly core mass flow. To estimate the latter effect, we use our MoSST (Modular, Scalable, Self-consistent, Three-dimensional) core dynamics model to forward simulate the core flow, and density variation due to the core convection. Our results suggest that, when upward continued to the surface, the J2 component of the core mass redistribution can reach an overall amplitude of e-11/year, approaching the SLR detectability and significant in geophysical terms. We also find a general westward drift of the mass flow, with a speed comparable to that of the geomagnetic westward drift.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Satellite-based Assessment of Climate Controls on US Burned Area

Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997 2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984 2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5 resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6 12 months). Fire season PE in creased from the 1980s 2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s 2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climatefire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity.

Morton, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Surface Temperature Data Analysis

Small global mean temperature changes may have significant to disastrous consequences for the Earth's climate if they persist for an extended period. Obtaining global means from local weather reports is hampered by the uneven spatial distribution of the reliably reporting weather stations. Methods had to be developed that minimize as far as possible the impact of that situation. This software is a method of combining temperature data of individual stations to obtain a global mean trend, overcoming/estimating the uncertainty introduced by the spatial and temporal gaps in the available data. Useful estimates were obtained by the introduction of a special grid, subdividing the Earth's surface into 8,000 equal-area boxes, using the existing data to create virtual stations at the center of each of these boxes, and combining temperature anomalies (after assessing the radius of high correlation) rather than temperatures.

Hansen, James↗
NASA NTRS2017

Ice Mass Change in Greenland and Antarctica Between 1993 and 2013 from Satellite Gravity Measurements

We construct long-term time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass change from satellite gravity measurements. A statistical reconstruction approach is developed based on a principal component analysis (PCA) to combine high-resolution spatial modes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the gravity information from conventional satellite tracking data. Uncertainties of this reconstruction are rigorously assessed; they include temporal limitations for short GRACE measurements, spatial limitations for the low-resolution conventional tracking data measurements, and limitations of the estimated statistical relationships between low- and high-degree potential coefficients reflected in the PCA modes. Trends of mass variations in Greenland and Antarctica are assessed against a number of previous studies. The resulting time series for Greenland show a higher rate of mass loss than other methods before 2000, while the Antarctic ice sheet appears heavily influenced by interannual variations.

Talpe, Matthieu J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Interfacial Structure and Capacitance of Li-doped Ionic Liquid Electrolytes from Molecular Simulations

Ionic liquids have been proposed as candidate electrolytes for high-energy density, rechargeable batteries, supercapacitors, and hybrid energy storage devices. Though Li-salt is often present in these systems, its influence on interfacial properties is largely uncharacterized. We, thereby, present an extensive computational analysis, supported by experimental comparisons, of the properties of a representative set of these electrolytesat an ideal carbon interface as a function of Li-salt doping and voltage. We have performed polarizable molecular (MD) dynamics simulations, using the APPLEP force field, to evaluate electric double layer (EDL) capacitance and distribution of Li+ in the EDL. Differential capacitance exhibits the characteristic camel profile and is insensitive to Li-doping. Li+ localizes in the second molecular layer of the EDL, which is a result of confinement from free energy barriers associated with ion layering. Joint MDelectronic structure computations show the electrochemical window of the electrolytes to be a weak function of Li-doping. Estimates of supercapacitor specific energy are made using the computed window and capacitance. The magnitude and trends in specific energy are in good agreement with experiment.

batteries↗
NASA NTRS1978

Measurement of soil moisture trends with airborne scatterometers

The author had identified the following significant results. Repeated looks at surfaces that maintain constant roughness can provide an estimate of soil moisture in the surface, when appropriate radar look angles are used. Significant influence due to differences in soil moisture can be detected in the 13.3 GHz and 1.6 GHz scatterometer returns. Effects of normal crop densities have little influence on the surface soil moisture estimate, when appropriate look angles are used. It appears that different look angles are optimum for different frequencies to avoid effects from vegetation. Considering the frequency and look angles used on the Seasat-A imaging radar, differences in soil moisture should produce as much as 9 db difference in return on that system.

Blanchard, B. J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Datasets for characterizing extreme events relevant to hydrologic design over the conterminous United States

Despite the close linkage between extreme floods and snowmelt, particularly through rain-on-snow (ROS), hydrologic infrastructure is mostly designed based on standard precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (PREC-IDF) that neglect snow processes in runoff generation. For snow-dominated regions, such simplification could result in substantial errors in estimating extreme events and infrastructure design risk. To address this long-standing problem, we applied the Next Generation IDF (NG-IDF) technique to estimate design basis extreme events for different durations and return periods in the conterminous United States (CONUS) to distinctly represent the contribution of rain, snowmelt, and ROS events to the amount of water reaching the land surface. A suite of datasets were developed to characterize the magnitude, trend, seasonality, and dominant mechanism of extreme events for over 200,000 locations. Infrastructure design risk associated with the use of PREC-IDF was estimated. Accuracy of the model simulations used in the analyses was confirmed by long-term snow data at over 200 Snowpack Telemetry stations. The presented spatially continuous datasets are readily usable and instrumental for supporting site-specific infrastructure design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Spanwise measurements of vertical components of atmospheric turbulence

Correlation and spectrum magnitude estimates are computed for vertical gust velocity measurements at the nose and wing tips of a NASA B-57B aircraft for six level flight, low speed and low altitude runs and are compared with those of the von Karman atmospheric turbulence model extended for spanwise relationships. The distance between the wing tips was 62.6 ft. Airspeeds ranged from about 330 to 400 ft/sec, heights above the ground ranged from near ground level to about 5250 ft. and gust velocity standard deviations ranged from 4.10 to 8.86 ft/sec. Integral scale lengths, determined by matching measured autocorrelation estimates with those of the model, ranged from 410 to 2050 ft. Digital signals derived from piezoelectric sensors provided continuous pressure and airspeed measurements. Some directional acceleration sensitivity of the sensors was eliminated by sensor orientation, and their performance was spectrally verified for the higher frequencies with supplemental onboard piezoresistive sensors. The model appeared to satisfactorily predict the trends of the measured cross-correlations and cross-spectrum magnitudes, particularly between the nose and wing tips. However, the measured magnitude estimates of the cross-spectra between the wing tips exceeded the predicted levels at the higher frequencies. Causes for the additional power across the wing tips were investigated. Vertical gust velocity components evaluated along and lateral to the flight path implied that the frozen-turbulence-field assumption is a suitable approximation.

Sleeper, Robert K.↗