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NASA NTRS1997

Observations and Modeling of the Transient General Circulation of the North Pacific Basin

The objective of this study was to clarify the role that interstellar-cloud chemistry played in forming the population of organic molecules presently found in carbonaceous meteorites. This goal was to be achieved by means of defining the isotopic components present in organic and related phases in the meteorites and thereby identify the processes and source reservoirs involved in organic synthesis in the early solar system. Isotopic analysis of separated amino acids from the Murchison meteorite yielded results that are complex and not fully interpretable at this time. Substantial inter-acid variability in D/H ratio was observed, some but not all of which could be attributed to exchange with terrestrial hydrogen. Pronounced, though smaller, variability was also found for N-15/N-14 ratios. For both D/H and N-15/N-14 data, observed meteoritic values were substantially greater than found in terrestrial materials, providing a robust constraint on degrees of possible terrestrial contamination. Also, C-13/C-12 ratios, though falling within the range of data found on earth, significantly exceeded those characteristic of naturally occurring terrestrial amino acids. Inter-acid variability in C-13/C-12 ratios was muted relative to that observed for D/H and N-15/N-14 but still lay well outside of experimental uncertainty. No systematic relationship could be observed between variations in H, C and N isotopes. Two anomalous components were also found during the course of this study. A highly (greater than 6% relative to terrestrial) N-15-depleted, N-rich compound, which has not yet been identified, co-eluted with some amino acids. Clearly the Murchison meteorite sampled nitrogen from a number of highly diverse isotopic reservoirs. In fact, from this and related studies, it is now apparent that the distribution of nitrogen isotopes in the primitive solar system was extremely inhomogeneous. The second anomalous result obtained in the present study was for an extract of 'ammonia' from Murchison. It should be noted that this sample consisted of ammonia that was probably derived from a number of different compounds present in the meteorite itself, possibly including amines and amides, as well as ammonia sensu strictu and ammonium slats. However, the significance of this analysis is that the N-15/N-14 ratio measured was much lower than those found for the meteoritic amino acids (+2% vs around + 9% relative to terrestrial). This raises an important question concerning the source of the ammonia that was involved in synthesis of the amino acids. This issue needs to be explored further.

Kerridge, John F.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A multi-algorithm approach for modeling coastal wetland eco-geomorphology

Coastal wetlands play an important role in the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Climate change makes it more difficult for these ecosystems to adapt to the fluctuation in sea levels and other environmental changes. Given the importance of eco-geomorphological processes for coastal wetland resilience, many eco-geomorphology models differing in complexity and numerical schemes have been developed in recent decades. However, their divergent estimates of the response of coastal wetlands to climate change indicate that substantial structural uncertainties exist in these models. To investigate the structural uncertainty of coastal wetland eco-geomorphology models, we developed a multi-algorithm model framework of eco-geomorphological processes, such as mineral accretion and organic matter accretion, within a single hydrodynamics model. The framework is designed to explore possible ways to represent coastal wetland eco-geomorphology in Earth system models and reduce the related uncertainties in global applications. We tested this model framework at three representative coastal wetland sites: two saltmarsh wetlands (Venice Lagoon and Plum Island Estuary) and a mangrove wetland (Hunter Estuary). Through the model–data comparison, we showed the importance of using a multi-algorithm ensemble approach for more robust predictions of the evolution of coastal wetlands. We also found that more observations of mineral and organic matter accretion at different elevations of coastal wetlands and evaluation of the coastal wetland models at different sites in diverse environments can help reduce the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

AATTENUATION—The Atmospheric Attenuation Model for CSP Tower Plants: A Look-Up Table for Operational Implementation

Attenuation of solar radiation between the receiver and the heliostat field in concentrated solar power (CSP) tower plants can reduce the overall system performance significantly. The attenuation varies strongly with time and the average attenuation at different sites might also vary strongly from each other. If no site specific attenuation data is available, the optimal plant design cannot be determined and rough estimations of the attenuation effect are required leading to high uncertainties of yield analysis calculations. The attenuation is caused mainly by water vapor content and aerosol particles in the lower atmospheric layer above ground. Although several on-site measurement systems have been developed during recent years, attenuation data sets are usually not available to be included during the plant project development. An Atmospheric Attenuation (AATTENUATION) model to derive the atmospheric transmittance between a heliostat and receiver on the basis of common direct normal irradiance (DNI), temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure measurements was developed and validated by the authors earlier. The model allows the accurate estimation of attenuation for sites with low attenuation and gives an estimation of the attenuation for less clear sites. However, the site-dependent coefficients of the AATTENUATION model had to be developed individually for each site of interest, which required time-consuming radiative transfer simulations, considering the exact location and altitude, as well as the pre-dominant aerosol type at the location. This strongly limited the application of the model despite its typically available input data. In this manuscript, a look-up table (LUT) is presented which enables the application of the AATTENUATION model at the site of interest without the necessity to perform the according complex radiative transfer calculations for each site individually. This enables the application of the AATTENUATION model for virtually all resource assessments for tower plants and in an operational mode in real time within plant monitoring systems around the world. The LUT also facilitates the generation of solar attenuation maps on the basis of long-term meteorological data sets which can be considered during resource assessment for CSP tower plant projects. The LUTs are provided together with this manuscript as supplementary files. The LUT for the AATTENUATION model was developed for a solar zenith angle (SZA) grid of 1°, an altitude grid of 100 m, 7 different standard aerosol types and the standard AFGL atmospheres for mid-latitudes and the tropics. The LUT was tested against the original version of the AATTENUATION model at 4 sites in Morocco and Spain, and it was found that the additional uncertainty introduced by the application of the LUT is negligible. With the information of latitude, longitude, altitude above mean sea level, DNI, relative humidity (RH), ambient temperature (Tair), and barometric pressure (bp), the attenuation can be now derived easily for each site of interest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗

NASA NTRS1997

Dynamics of Numerics & Spurious Behaviors in CFD Computations

The global nonlinear behavior of finite discretizations for constant time steps and fixed or adaptive grid spacings is studied using tools from dynamical systems theory. Detailed analysis of commonly used temporal and spatial discretizations for simple model problems is presented. The role of dynamics in the understanding of long time behavior of numerical integration and the nonlinear stability, convergence, and reliability of using time-marching approaches for obtaining steady-state numerical solutions in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is explored. The study is complemented with examples of spurious behavior observed in steady and unsteady CFD computations. The CFD examples were chosen to illustrate non-apparent spurious behavior that was difficult to detect without extensive grid and temporal refinement studies and some knowledge from dynamical systems theory. Studies revealed the various possible dangers of misinterpreting numerical simulation of realistic complex flows that are constrained by available computing power. In large scale computations where the physics of the problem under study is not well understood and numerical simulations are the only viable means of solution, extreme care must be taken in both computation and interpretation of the numerical data. The goal of this paper is to explore the important role that dynamical systems theory can play in the understanding of the global nonlinear behavior of numerical algorithms and to aid the identification of the sources of numerical uncertainties in CFD.

Yee, Helen C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

ATHLETE's Feet: Mu1ti-Resolution Planning for a Hexapod Robot

ATHLETE is a large six-legged tele-operated robot. Each foot is a wheel; travel can be achieved by walking, rolling, or some combination of the two. Operators control ATHLETE by selecting parameterized commands from a command dictionary. While rolling can be done efficiently with a single command, any motion involving steps is cumbersome - walking a few meters through difficult terrain can take hours. Our goal is to improve operator efficiency by automatically generating sequences of motion commands. There is increasing uncertainty regarding ATHLETE s actual configuration over time and decreasing quality of terrain data farther away from the current position. This, combined with the complexity that results from 36 degrees of kinematic freedom, led to an architecture that interleaves planning and execution at multiple levels, ranging from traditional configuration space motion planning algorithms for immediate moves to higher level task and path planning algorithms for overall travel. The modularity of the architecture also simplifies the development process and allows the operator to interact with and control the system at varying levels of autonomy depending on terrain and need.

Smith, Tristan B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Surface vs Homogeneous Organo-Hafnium Catalyst Ion-Pairing and Ligand Effects on Ethylene Homo- and Copolymerizations

Heterogeneous catalysts have long dominated polyethylene and polypropylene production, but understanding their catalysis is challenged by uncertainties in active site structures and percentages. Surface-bound organometallic catalysts are an emerging strategy to combine successful homogeneous catalysts having well-understood structures, relatively high percentages of active sites, and exceptional control of selectivity, with the attractions of surface catalysts, to transition promising homogeneous systems to large-scale heterogeneous ones. Nevertheless, surface-bound olefin polymerization catalysts typically produce ultrahigh M w ’s but with low activity and comonomer selectivity. Here, we report the systematic synthesis and characterization of a series of pyridylamido–Hf complexes and their corresponding surface catalysts chemisorbed on sulfated alumina (AlS) and zirconia (ZrS). Comparative ethylene homo- and 1-octene copolymerizations reveal similar activity and 1-octene selectivity trends in the homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. For the surface pyridylamido–Hf catalyst series, large variations in activity (up to 10×) and 1-octene incorporation (up to 28×) are achieved by ligand and support manipulation. Interestingly, while the homogeneous catalysts exhibit positive comonomer effects in ethylene/1-octene copolymerization, the surface catalysts behave oppositely. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) reveals significantly elongated Hf···O bond distances vs typical Hf–O covalent bonds (2.06 vs 1.97 Å). Furthermore, density functional theory (DFT) analysis of the heterolytic ion pair separation enthalpies, olefin insertion energetics, and NBO/Bader charges also suggest electrostatic Hf cation–anionic support binding and catalytic patterns, which are modulated by the ion-pairing energetics and ligand architecture.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2021

Inertial Transfer Concept for Autonomous In-Space Assembly

Rocket payload and fairing size have placed strict mass and volume limitations on single launch in-space structures. These limitations are what motivates In-Space Assembly (ISA)and where Inertial Transfer has potential to improve or augment ISA capabilities by utilizing an efficient multi-agent autonomous system to transport untethered payloads. Adoption of an inertial transfer approach significantly reduces system complexity, energy and time needed for assembly compared to conventional ISA capabilities, increasing the likelihood of early adoption for assembly. The Inertial Transfer concept is presented including autonomy capabilities, potential risks, and three system configurations. These configurations are based on the autonomous system’s available sensor coverage that tracks the payload’s state. Participating agents have well-defined roles, expectations, and assumptions in their physical organization and coordination of actions depending the mode of operation. The sensor information available to participating agents is considered as it affects the uncertainty in the estimated state and theactions required to capture the payload.

Multi-Agent↗

DOE OSTI2021

Free-moving Quantitative Gamma-ray Imaging

The ability to map and estimate the activity of radiological source distributions in unknown three-dimensional environments has applications in the prevention and response to radiological accidents or threats as well as the enforcement and verification of international nuclear non-proliferation agreements. Such a capability requires well-characterized detector response functions, accurate time-dependent detector position and orientation data, a digitized representation of the surrounding 3D environment, and appropriate image reconstruction and uncertainty quantification methods. We have previously demonstrated 3D mapping of gamma-ray emitters with free-moving detector systems on a relative intensity scale using a technique called Scene Data Fusion (SDF). Here we characterize the detector response of a multi-element gamma-ray imaging system using experimentally benchmarked Monte Carlo simulations and perform 3D mapping on an absolute intensity scale. We present experimental reconstruction results from hand-carried and airborne measurements with point-like and distributed sources in known configurations, demonstrating quantitative SDF in complex 3D environments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1973

Instrumentation for one-way satellite PTTI applications

A review of general principles and operational procedures illustrates how the typical passive user and omni receiving antenna can recover Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) information from a low altitude navigation satellite system for clock calibration and synchronization. Detailed discussions of concepts and theory of the receiver design are presented. The importance of RF correlation of the received and local PN encoded sequences is emphasized as a means of reducing delay uncertainties of the instrumentation to values compatible with nanosecond to submicrosecond PTTI objectives. Two receiver configurations were fabricated for use in satellite-to-laboratory experiments. In one receiver the delay-locked loop for PN signals synchronization used a dithered amplitude detection process while the second receiver used a complex sums phase detection method for measurement of delay error. The necessity for compensation of Doppler shift is discussed. Differences in theoretical signal acquisition and tracking performance of the design concepts are noted.

Osborne, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Development of Complexity Science and Technology Tools for NextGen Airspace Research and Applications

The objective of this research by NextGen AeroSciences, LLC is twofold: 1) to deliver an initial "toolbox" of algorithms, agent-based structures, and method descriptions for introducing trajectory agency as a methodology for simulating and analyzing airspace states, including bulk properties of large numbers of heterogeneous 4D aircraft trajectories in a test airspace -- while maintaining or increasing system safety; and 2) to use these tools in a test airspace to identify possible phase transition structure to predict when an airspace will approach the limits of its capacity. These 4D trajectories continuously replan their paths in the presence of noise and uncertainty while optimizing performance measures and performing conflict detection and resolution. In this approach, trajectories are represented as extended objects endowed with pseudopotential, maintaining time and fuel-efficient paths by bending just enough to accommodate separation while remaining inside of performance envelopes. This trajectory-centric approach differs from previous aircraft-centric distributed approaches to deconfliction. The results of this project are the following: 1) we delivered a toolbox of algorithms, agent-based structures and method descriptions as pseudocode; and 2) we corroborated the existence of phase transition structure in simulation with the addition of "early warning" detected prior to "full" airspace. This research suggests that airspace "fullness" can be anticipated and remedied before the airspace becomes unsafe.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Foundation Models for the Electric Power Grid

Foundation models (FMs) currently dominate news headlines. They employ advanced deep learning architectures to extract structural information autonomously from vast datasets through self-supervision. The resulting rich representations of complex systems and dynamics can be applied to many downstream applications. Therefore, advances in FMs can find uses in electric power grids, challenged by the energy transition and climate change. This paper calls for the development of FMs for electric grids. We highlight their strengths and weaknesses amidst the challenges of a changing grid. It is argued that FMs learning from diverse grid data and topologies, which we call grid foundation models (GridFMs), could unlock transformative capabilities, pioneering a new approach to leveraging AI to redefine how we manage complexity and uncertainty in the electric grid. Finally, we discuss a practical implementation pathway and road map of a GridFM-v0, a first GridFM for power flow applications based on graph neural networks, and explore how various downstream use cases will benefit from this model and future GridFMs.

AI-based power flow simulation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Fuel-to-Coolant Heat Transfer During Reactivity-Initiated Accidents Using Tightly Coupled Thermal Hydraulics and Fuel Thermomechanics

The reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) is a complex scenario with several tightly interacting physical phenomena. Accurately predicting fuel behavior during these transients is difficult due to limitations in the modeling of fuel-to-coolant heat transfer. Common approaches to simulate RIAs involve standalone calculations using either a fuel performance code or a thermal-hydraulic code. The complex interdependencies of thermal-hydraulic and fuel mechanical behavior suggest that a tight coupling between these codes may provide more accurate predictions of fuel-to-coolant heat transfer and cladding mechanical response. Here, RELAP5-3D and BISON are coupled in this paper to simulate RIAs, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to rank key thermal properties and two-phase heat transfer parameters relevant for fuel-to-coolant heat transfer and cladding failure mechanisms in UO 2 –Zircaloy-4 systems. Gas gap conductance, film boiling heat transfer uncertainty, pulse width, fuel-specific heat capacity, and cladding-specific heat capacity were identified as important parameters. Variations in figures of merit resulting from changes to pulse width and the material thermal properties indicate that time-dependent heat transfer rates are significant for safety-relevant mechanical parameters due to the time dependence of cladding ductility and pellet-cladding mechanical interaction loading. The results suggest that the thermal-hydraulic factors have a nonnegligible influence on the thermomechanical solution and vice versa. Tight coupling of both sets of physics is recommended to improve prediction of fuel behavior during RIAs. Highlights include the following: 1. The RELAP5-3D thermal-hydraulic code and the BISON fuel performance code are tightly coupled for simulation of RIA transients with energy depositions at the Zircaloy-4 cladding failure threshold. 2. Departure from nucleate boiling occurred for all simulated cases. Due to the ductility of fresh fuel, substantial ballooning occurred in most cases. 3. Gas gap conductance, fuel-specific heat capacity, cladding-specific heat capacity, transient pulse width, and film boiling heat transfer were the dominant thermal factors impacting the safety figures of merit at energy depositions.

Critical Heat Flux (CHF)↗

NASA NTRS2023

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

SST↗

DOE OSTI2020

Creation of a Mixed-Mode Fracture Network at Mesoscale Through Hydraulic Fracturing and Shear Stimulation

Enhanced Geothermal Systems could provide a substantial contribution to the global energy demand if their implementation could overcome inherent challenges. Examples are insufficient created permeability, early thermal breakthrough, and unacceptable induced seismicity. In this study we report on the seismic response of a mesoscale hydraulic fracturing experiment performed at 1.5-km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. We have measured the seismic activity by utilizing a 100-kHz, continuous seismic monitoring system deployed in six 60-m length monitoring boreholes surrounding the experimental domain in 3-D. The achieved location uncertainty was on the order of 1 m and limited by the signal-to-noise ratio of detected events. These uncertainties were corroborated by detections of fracture intersections at the monitoring boreholes. Three intervals of the dedicated injection borehole were hydraulically stimulated by water injection at pressures up to 33 MPa and flow rates up to 5 L/min. We located 1,933 seismic events during several injection periods. The recorded seismicity delineates a complex fracture network comprised of multistrand hydraulic fractures and shear-reactivated, preexisting planes of weakness that grew unilaterally from the point of initiation. We find that heterogeneity of stress dictates the seismic outcome of hydraulic stimulations, even when relying on theoretically well-behaved hydraulic fractures. Once hydraulic fractures intersected boreholes, the boreholes acted as a pressure relief and fracture propagation ceased. In order to create an efficient subsurface heat exchanger, production boreholes should not be drilled before the end of hydraulic stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Qualitative Strategy for Fusion of Physics into Empirical Models for Process Anomaly Detection

To facilitate the automated online monitoring of power plants, a systematic and qualitative strategy for anomaly detection is presented. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. Empirical methods are usually based on pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The presented strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability, and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. The strategy is demonstrated through a pilot use case for the application of anomaly detection to capture a valve packing leak at the high-pressure coolant injection system of a nuclear power plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploration of multifidelity UQ sampling strategies for computer network applications.

Network modeling is a powerful tool to enable rapid analysis of complex systems that can be challenging to study directly using physical testing. Here, two approaches are considered: emulation and simulation. The former runs real software on virtualized hardware, while the latter mimics the behavior of network components and their interactions in software. Although emulation provides an accurate representation of physical networks, this approach alone cannot guarantee the characterization of the system under realistic operative conditions. Operative conditions for physical networks are often characterized by intrinsic variability (payload size, packet latency, etc.) or a lack of precise knowledge regarding the network configuration (bandwidth, delays, etc.); therefore uncertainty quantification (UQ) strategies should be also employed. UQ strategies require multiple evaluations of the system with a number of evaluation instances that roughly increases with the problem dimensionality, i.e., the number of uncertain parameters. It follows that a typical UQ workflow for network modeling based on emulation can easily become unattainable due to its prohibitive computational cost. In this paper, a multifidelity sampling approach is discussed and applied to network modeling problems. The main idea is to optimally fuse information coming from simulations, which are a low-fidelity version of the emulation problem of interest, in order to decrease the estimator variance. By reducing the estimator variance in a sampling approach it is usually possible to obtain more reliable statistics and therefore a more reliable system characterization. Several network problems of increasing difficulty are presented. For each of them, the performance of the multifidelity estimator is compared with respect to the single fidelity counterpart, namely, Monte Carlo sampling. For all the test problems studied in this work, the multifidelity estimator demonstrated an increased efficiency with respect to MC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗